Higher beyers at los al tbred

[Stillriledup]

Can someone explain to me why you think bad horses can run normal beyers at los al but at del mar they basically can't finish?



Look at race two tomorrow at SA, the 1, 5 and 6 all big improvement at los al.

Race 5, the 4 horse somehow runs a 63 Beyer. The 8 horse runs a 52 Beyer at los al, goes to DMR and can't finish, than comes back to los al and resumes his normal beyers off 51 and 60.

Too many examples to list, I don't have the answer.

[Tall One]

Without looking at any pp's, I'll go with class.

[Stillriledup]

Without looking at any pp's, I'll go with class.

I'm not talking about beaten lengths though, if a horse can run a 50 beyer, what's the difference what class he's in?

[NorCalGreg]

I'm not talking about beaten lengths though, if a horse can run a 50 beyer, what's the difference what class he's in?

That is irritating, SRU*.....Bris says their SR's transfer from track to track. You just gave a good example why that isn't true. I don't know about any other figs....but I've noticed this and discount, or ignore the gaudy speed and pace figs from Idaho, Wyoming, Nevada, etc. No matter what Bris says. I assume other providers say their numbers are "portable" as well. When Turf Paradise gets going, you'll see stables sending strings of horses from all over...you'll go broke using those "transferrable" speed ratings as part of your handicapping process.

*the only thing more irritating is that damn pop-up from xpress-bet every 5 min. wanting to know if I'm still watching :mad:

[Stillriledup]

That is irritating, SRU*.....Bris says their SR's transfer from track to track. You just gave a good example why that isn't true. I don't know about any other figs....but I've noticed this and discount, or ignore the gaudy speed and pace figs from Idaho, Wyoming, Nevada, etc. No matter what Bris says. I assume other providers say their numbers are "portable" as well. When Turf Paradise gets going, you'll see stables sending strings of horses from all over...you'll go broke using those "transferrable" speed ratings as part of your handicapping process.

*the only thing more irritating is that damn pop-up from xpress-bet every 5 min. wanting to know if I'm still watching :mad:

Here's the thing though, I don't necessarily think the beyers or figs are wrong, they're probably accurate, I just wonder why horses can run 50s and 60s at local but at DMR they're running 0s.

[Tall One]

I'm not talking about beaten lengths though, if a horse can run a 50 beyer, what's the difference what class he's in?

I believe in stable talk. These horses know more than we give them credit for sometimes.

IMO

[ultracapper]

Can someone explain to me why you think bad horses can run normal beyers at los al but at del mar they basically can't finish?



Look at race two tomorrow at SA, the 1, 5 and 6 all big improvement at los al.

Race 5, the 4 horse somehow runs a 63 Beyer. The 8 horse runs a 52 Beyer at los al, goes to DMR and can't finish, than comes back to los al and resumes his normal beyers off 51 and 60.

Too many examples to list, I don't have the answer.

The racing is easier at Los Al's. Even with the purse structure, the Mdn 20K claimers at Los Al's is a noticeable notch below Del Mar and Santa Anita. Softer field, the horse isn't stressed so much running it's race, and it can actually finish with some decent run. Same level of race at Del Mar is markedly better, the lesser horses never get into a comfortable run, and by the top of the stretch, they're used up. First week of Santa Anita, only 2 of 66 horses whos last race was at Los Al won. If the horse's last race was at Los Al, regardless of how well it did, unless it is taking a massive drop in class, is an auto toss. It was the same with Fairplex. The racing environment in SoCal, as far as that goes, hasn't changed very much with the closure of Hollywood Park. The main trainers are sitting out with their bread and butter horses. It's giving the 3 and 4 percent trainers a chance to pick up some decent checks for a couple weeks a couple times a year anyway.

[Stillriledup]

The racing is easier at Los Al's. Even with the purse structure, the Mdn 20K claimers at Los Al's is a noticeable notch below Del Mar and Santa Anita. Softer field, the horse isn't stressed so much running it's race, and it can actually finish with some decent run. Same level of race at Del Mar is markedly better, the lesser horses never get into a comfortable run, and by the top of the stretch, they're used up. First week of Santa Anita, only 2 of 66 horses whos last race was at Los Al won. If the horse's last race was at Los Al, regardless of how well it did, unless it is taking a massive drop in class, is an auto toss. It was the same with Fairplex. The racing environment in SoCal, as far as that goes, hasn't changed very much with the closure of Hollywood Park. The main trainers are sitting out with their bread and butter horses. It's giving the 3 and 4 percent trainers a chance to pick up some decent checks for a couple weeks a couple times a year anyway.

If I raced a 50 Beyer in a race vs usain bolt I would also race a 50 Beyer against you. Nothing would change.

[therussmeister]

That is irritating, SRU*.....Bris says their SR's transfer from track to track. You just gave a good example why that isn't true. I don't know about any other figs....but I've noticed this and discount, or ignore the gaudy speed and pace figs from Idaho, Wyoming, Nevada, etc. No matter what Bris says. I assume other providers say their numbers are "portable" as well. When Turf Paradise gets going, you'll see stables sending strings of horses from all over...you'll go broke using those "transferrable" speed ratings as part of your handicapping process.

*the only thing more irritating is that damn pop-up from xpress-bet every 5 min. wanting to know if I'm still watching :mad:

I have no idea why you find it irritating, that has long been one of my favorite sources of profit. If I was a lazy handicapper I would just play the first couple weeks at every meet.

[ultracapper]

If I raced a 50 Beyer in a race vs usain bolt I would also race a 50 Beyer against you. Nothing would change.

Not true. You would perform dismally against Bolt, and much better against me. First off, before the race even began, you would know you have absolutely zero chance of coming within 30 yards of Bolt in a 100 yard dash. Then, after 50 yards with Bolt already 20 yards ahead of you and drawing away, you would not be able to get to the "bottom" of yourself and deliver a peak performance.

If what you say above is true, Andy Beyer truly would have found the final definitive method of picking the winner of a horse race. The 50's would always run 50, the 60's would always run 60, the 61's would always run 61, and so on. That is what you just said above. You have just basically said you would run a 50 every time you ran no matter what. Every single time you would take the track would be exactly the same as every other time you took the track and you would run the exact same race.

I've always thought it was just a harmless little joke around the forum, but do you honestly make some posts just to get your post count up? If you handicap at all, you know the absolute ridiculousness of what you posted above.

[cj]

If I raced a 50 Beyer in a race vs usain bolt I would also race a 50 Beyer against you. Nothing would change.

You'd run a 30 against me, a 0 against Bolt.

[Stillriledup]

You'd run a 30 against me, a 0 against Bolt.

I'd run a very similar final time with the margins of defeat being the biggest difference.

[whodoyoulike]

You've raised a question we handicappers in general have been trying to figure out every time we look at PP's. You're questioning whether it has something related to the difference between tracks or I think it may be related to form since these are pretty inconsistent runners. You're expecting consistency and I think it's difficult to determine or reasonably expect. Consider their performances at the other tracks before going to Dmr and Lrc keeping in mind the time frame span and ability to maintain form.

Considering this and if you were hurting all the time, you wouldn't perform the same every race as you've pointed out.

[steveb]

I'm not talking about beaten lengths though, if a horse can run a 50 beyer, what's the difference what class he's in?

it means they don't understand class, and that's from somebody that does not follow usa racing.

a 50 should mean the same everywhere, and if it doesn't then they have not figured the difference in standard from track a to track b

a better question would be to find out HOW they determine the difference in 'class a' here, from 'class a' there.
it's not a simple task to do unless you understand how to do it.
it would be very interesting to hear how people would calculate the differences.

[ultracapper]

I'd run a very similar final time with the margins of defeat being the biggest difference.

When Bolt broke the tape you would be 40 yards back and you would deliver that phenomenon we have been discussing around here for the past month called "EASED"

[357VEGAS]

The reason for this is that Los Al is a easy track to race on, less energy used. Del Mar is a much deeper track ( tiring). Just look at the workout times for Los Al. They are usually faster then any other tracks. It's a much more Speed favoring track.

Horses that ran at a distance of ground, and then turned back to sprint at Del mar had an advantage due to there endurance.

[steveb]

You'd run a 30 against me, a 0 against Bolt.

why?
perhaps the opposite may occur?
the faster the pace, the higher the final numbers of most horses in that race, is what tends to happen from all countries i have worked on.
bad horses tend to run career best numbers when the pace is fast, even when well beaten.
can't imagine why usa would be any different.

[Stillriledup]

The rail horse in race 2 was similar odds in her last 2 starts, but one was much faster. The 5 horse was a shorter price at DMR, yet ran much better at los al. The 6 horse was 6-1 at DMR and ran a 16 Beyer, it wasnt like these are all 50-1 shots, they're major contenders in their races. In race 5, warrens my boy was 4-1, a major contender also. These are horses who fit well in their races.

[Stillriledup]

When Bolt broke the tape you would be 40 yards back and you would deliver that phenomenon we have been discussing around here for the past month called "EASED"

I might even run harder vs bolt than I would vs CJ, but there's 0 pct chance I would 'quit' vs bolt. Even if you can make a case that I would slow up for some reason vs bolt, there wouldn't be a huge disparity in my Beyer fig, there might be a slight drop off, but these horses at DMR are running 0s and 10s and running 50s at los al. That's major, not minor.

[thaskalos]

why?
perhaps the opposite may occur?
the faster the pace, the higher the final numbers of most horses in that race, is what tends to happen from all countries i have worked on.
bad horses tend to run career best numbers when the pace is fast, even when well beaten.
can't imagine why usa would be any different.

You are wrong.

Let's take a sprint in this country as an example. Say that a sprinter stalked a 46-second half mile pace and registered a Beyer of 60. If he subsequently stalks a 45-second pace in another sprint...then his resulting Beyer figure would be no-where near his prior 60.

[thaskalos]

If I raced a 50 Beyer in a race vs usain bolt I would also race a 50 Beyer against you. Nothing would change.
Haven't you ever seen horses ship from Aqueduct to Finger Lakes...and beat horses who have been regularly posting much higher Beyers than the Aqueduct horse had previously run?

You really believe that nonsense about "an 80 Beyer being an "80", no matter what track it is earned at"?

[NorCalGreg]

You are wrong.

Let's take a sprint in this country as an example. Say that a sprinter stalked a 46-second half mile pace and registered a Beyer of 60. If he subsequently stalks a 45-second pace in another sprint...then his resulting Beyer figure would be no-where near his prior 60.

Heck does that even mean? A sprinter (I guess we're to assume it's what, 6F?) chases a 4F .46 ( start to E-2?) which would result in said horse being assigned a 60 SR for the entire race.
Then the same horse in the next race chases a 4F (again assuming start to E-2) appx 1 full second faster or appx 5 lengths-----and somehow, magically, our sprinter, according to your well-thought out hypothetical nonsense....
would no way be able to duplicate his prior speed rating of 60.....because.....the winner earned a much higher SR than the winner of the last race?
Please tell me what you were trying to say, thask---because you left out some important details----like most of them.

[thaskalos]

Heck does that even mean? A sprinter (I guess we're to assume it's what, 6F?) chases a 4F .46 ( start to E-2?) which would result in said horse being assigned a 60 SR for the entire race.
Then the same horse in the next race chases a 4F (again assuming start to E-2) appx 1 full second faster or appx 5 lengths-----and somehow, magically, our sprinter, according to your well-thought out hypothetical nonsense....
would no way be able to duplicate his prior speed rating of 60.....because.....the winner earned a much higher SR than the winner of the last race?
Please tell me what you were trying to say, thask---because you left out some important details----like most of them.
Stick to your "horses-to-watch" list, friend...and leave the pace handicapping to the adults. I know better than to waste my time explaining advanced stuff to the likes of you.

[whodoyoulike]

I'm not talking about beaten lengths though, if a horse can run a 50 beyer, what's the difference what class he's in?

Don't Beyer numbers incorporate class in their number?

Where a less classier race running similar #'s compared to a classier race at a similar distance for that day won't be assigned an equal or similar number with each other e.g., a MSW and a Stakes (at 98) race. The MSW wouldn't also be assigned a 98.

[ultracapper]

Beyers are based on the final time....El Fin. Pace-nada, class-nada, final time-toto.

[ultracapper]

Means a winner of a maiden 20 finishes in 1:10 gets the same Beyer a G1 winner in 1:10 gets for that day, as long as they don't start splitting out races and saying the track changed and many of the other things that they do if conditions change during the day. All things being equal, a 1:10 is going to get the same Beyer all day long.

[steveb]

Stick to your "horses-to-watch" list, friend...and leave the pace handicapping to the adults. I know better than to waste my time explaining advanced stuff to the likes of you.

when you demean people that way, you demean yourself.

as for me being wrong, i already know that i am not.

you're welcome to your opinion, but please don't try addressing me the way you did to the person that received that retort from you.

although you are welcome to explain the 'advanced stuff' to me, as all us beginners need help now and then!

[ultracapper]

I might even run harder vs bolt than I would vs CJ, but there's 0 pct chance I would 'quit' vs bolt. Even if you can make a case that I would slow up for some reason vs bolt, there wouldn't be a huge disparity in my Beyer fig, there might be a slight drop off, but these horses at DMR are running 0s and 10s and running 50s at los al. That's major, not minor.
That's you. You're not a horse in a thoroughbred race. They don't do that, as a norm. If they get beat up early, and can't handle it, they fold as often as not.

[thaskalos]

when you demean people that way, you demean yourself.

as for me being wrong, i already know that i am not.

you're welcome to your opinion, but please don't try addressing me the way you did to the person that received that retort from you.

although you are welcome to explain the 'advanced stuff' to me, as all us beginners need help now and then!

Why would I address you the way I did that "other person"? YOU didn't call what I wrote "nonsense".

I don't "demean" people. I just respond to them the same way that they respond to me. Is that unfair?

[ultracapper]

why?
perhaps the opposite may occur?
the faster the pace, the higher the final numbers of most horses in that race, is what tends to happen from all countries i have worked on.
bad horses tend to run career best numbers when the pace is fast, even when well beaten.
can't imagine why usa would be any different.

Bad Horse....

A. 5 lengths off a 46 flat, final time 1:11
B. 5 lengths off a 45 flat, final time 1:11.2

Give me A every time. B is as likely to take the starch out of him straightening for home as not. He's gonna hate chasing that swifter fraction, particularly if he's amongst a couple others that the pace isn't bothering as much. He could easily be looking at a 35 BSF as he would be looking at a 60 BSF in scenario A.

[NorCalGreg]

Bad Horse....

A. 5 lengths off a 46 flat
B. 5 lengths off a 45 flat

Give me A every time. B is as likely to take the starch out of him straightening for home as not. He's gonna hate chasing that swifter fraction, particularly if he's amongst a couple others that the pace isn't bothering as much. He could easily be looking at a 35BSF as he would be looking at a 60BSF in scenario A.

You're assuming alot, uc. I asked for details and an explanation, but thask decided to get all defensive about it. No on said the horse was 5 lengths back, uc--- I used that as the 1 second faster appx. Thask said the horse "stalked" a 4F pace of those times....so you have to assume a lot to even think any horse is naturally not going to be able to run the same or even faster next time out.
And thask--no one has ever said anything you posted was nonsense? You can't be that important. Get over it, man.

[ultracapper]

I know it's a cliché, but "Pace makes the race". In a lot of cases, that early expenditure of energy stalking the quicker pace is going to ground the horse turning for home. Just because he finished the final quarter in 24 last time doesn't mean he's going to finish in 24 this time. If that early pace burned him up, he could finish in 27. Just look at your pps and find all the wire jobs for mid to lower level claimers with 2nd call times of sub 46. You'll find 25+ final quarter miles all over and still winning by daylight. "Where were all the closers?" Well, they got burnt up trying to keep within striking range early.

[thaskalos]

You're assuming alot, uc. I asked for details and an explanation, but thask decided to get all defensive about it. No on said the horse was 5 lengths back, uc--- I used that as the 1 second faster appx. Thask said the horse "stalked" a 4F pace of those times....so you have to assume a lot to even think any horse is naturally not going to be able to run the same or even faster next time out.
And thask--no one has ever said anything you posted was nonsense? You can't be that important. Get over it, man.

Sure...I've had other people say that what I posted was "nonsense". But it usually happens when people UNDERSTAND what I am talking about...and disagree with it. In your case...you have no idea at all what I am talking about...because pace handicapping is obviously foreign to you. And, instead of asking me to explain what I meant in further detail...you elected to call what I posted "nonsense". And I wasn't even responding to YOU when I submitted my post.

If you don't understand something...then ask for further clarification. And when I explain it further and you understand what I am talking about, but don't agree with it...then, call it "nonsense".

[ultracapper]

You're assuming alot, uc. I asked for details and an explanation, but thask decided to get all defensive about it. No on said the horse was 5 lengths back, uc--- I used that as the 1 second faster appx. Thask said the horse "stalked" a 4F pace of those times....so you have to assume a lot to even think any horse is naturally not going to be able to run the same or even faster next time out.
And thask--no one has ever said anything you posted was nonsense? You can't be that important. Get over it, man.

I don't want to speak for Thask because he is infinitely better at doing it himself than I could ever be, but I believe he is saying that, in most cases in the meat and potato world of claimers, a horse that loses a race after stalking a :46 pace will run a higher Beyer than a horse that loses a race after stalking a :45 pace. No rule applies universally in horse racing of course, but I believe that is a general rule that he is setting here.

I would have to agree with him 100% if I am understanding him correctly.

[Stillriledup]

Haven't you ever seen horses ship from Aqueduct to Finger Lakes...and beat horses who have been regularly posting much higher Beyers than the Aqueduct horse had previously run?

You really believe that nonsense about "an 80 Beyer being an "80", no matter what track it is earned at"?

No.

But if you have an example, ill take a look.

[classhandicapper]

If I raced a 50 Beyer in a race vs usain bolt I would also race a 50 Beyer against you. Nothing would change.

You are thinking in terms of very short sprints races where everyone runs at their top speed from start to finish. In horse racing, the distances are longer. The pace and race development matter.

If you could run a mile in 6 minutes on your own but then tried to keep up with world class milers for the first part of a race of that quality, you wouldn't even finish the race let alone run it in 6 minutes.

Over and above that, you are acting like horses are machines that can run the same Beyer every time. They are animals with good days and bad days, aches and pains, different tolerances for shipping, and they are sometimes on different drugs or get different treatments on different circuits. You have to loosen your thinking.

[whodoyoulike]

Means a winner of a maiden 20 finishes in 1:10 gets the same Beyer a G1 winner in 1:10 gets for that day, as long as they don't start splitting out races and saying the track changed and many of the other things that they do if conditions change during the day. All things being equal, a 1:10 is going to get the same Beyer all day long.

Thanks for the clarification. I thought I read about that situation somewhere.

[Tall One]

Let's take a sprint in this country as an example. Say that a sprinter stalked a 46-second half mile pace and registered a Beyer of 60. If he subsequently stalks a 45-second pace in another sprint...then his resulting Beyer figure would be no-where near his prior 60.


Would it be somewhat similar to a sucked along time in harness where a faster time for a horse can be somewhat deceiving?

[Stillriledup]

You are thinking in terms of very short sprints races where everyone runs at their top speed from start to finish. In horse racing, the distances are longer. The pace and race development matter.

If you could run a mile in 6 minutes on your own but then tried to keep up with world class milers for the first part of a race of that quality, you wouldn't even finish the race let alone run it in 6 minutes.

Over and above that, you are acting like horses are machines that can run the same Beyer every time. They are animals with good days and bad days, aches and pains, different tolerances for shipping, and they are sometimes on different drugs or get different treatments on different circuits. You have to loosen your thinking.

I'm not acting like horses can always run the same number, that's not what this thread is about. It's about the overnight drop off, with no warning, of figures at del mar vs Los al. Was it just a coincidence that warrens something or other threw in a massive clunker at DMR but then showed 'top form' at Los al before and after?

he was a major contender in that race at DMR and got beat a country mile but then showed up at Los al and ran like nothing was wrong.

[Stillriledup]

You are thinking in terms of very short sprints races where everyone runs at their top speed from start to finish. In horse racing, the distances are longer. The pace and race development matter.

If you could run a mile in 6 minutes on your own but then tried to keep up with world class milers for the first part of a race of that quality, you wouldn't even finish the race let alone run it in 6 minutes.

Over and above that, you are acting like horses are machines that can run the same Beyer every time. They are animals with good days and bad days, aches and pains, different tolerances for shipping, and they are sometimes on different drugs or get different treatments on different circuits. You have to loosen your thinking.

These horses I'm talking about are all major contenders in their races, its not like I'm questioning why a 3-5 shot might race his optimum race at Los al and then at 50/1 run up the track, I'm talking about how similar odds horses can't run a Jump at DMR but are world beaters at Los al with everything else being equal.

[raybo]

As someone mentioned, the difference between Los Al and Del Mar is a combination of class and surface (among other things).

A very good explanation of class is that "good class horses can set or handle the pace and still finish strong". If a horse is setting or chasing a 46 and runs a 1.11, while running his best race, and in another race the horse has to set or chase a 45, he won't finish with a 1.11, he'll fade badly or fold completely. Beyer speed figures don't consider pace at all, so a 60 BSF in a normal paced race is not equal to a 60 BSF in a faster paced race. So, the 60 is not transferable from race to race or track to track unless you consider pace. Pace makes the race, and pace also determines final time, and final time determines the classical speed figure (one that does not incorporate pace in it's assignment).

Surface: Los Al is a fast dirt surface and will result in faster times for the same classes of horses. Del Mar's new dirt surface is a tiring surface, so far, and will result in slower times for the same classes of horses. So, with class being the same at both tracks, a horse that runs a 60 figure at Del Mar is a better horse than horses that run 60 at Los Al, because those at Los Al are expending less energy for their 60 than those at Del Mar who run 60.

So, when you combine pace and class at both tracks, the horse that runs 60 as a best at Los Al will never run a 60 at Del Mar unless that horse runs against a much slower pace at Del Mar, or improves dramatically between its races at Los Al and its race at Del Mar. You can also add in shipping, new barns, different crowd, different track configuration, different air density and moisture content, prevailing wind direction in relation to the track, etc., etc., etc..

It is pure folly to think that a 60 at a cheaper track will translate to a 60 at a classier track. I'm surprised SRU, with all his years of handicapping, would even start a thread with this as the subject. This subject is 1st grade stuff, and this thread just proves that those who think the way SRU thinks about this subject, don't know much about pace influence, or class differences, or track to track differences, or Beyer speed figures for that matter. :bang:

[whodoyoulike]

I looked at the PP's in question and one was a MC20 and the other was I think a cl12.5. As I mentioned previously, it's unreasonable to expect consistency over several months for these horses.

[Stillriledup]

As someone mentioned, the difference between Los Al and Del Mar is a combination of class and surface (among other things).

A very good explanation of class is that "good class horses can set or handle the pace and still finish strong". If a horse is setting or chasing a 46 and runs a 1.11, while running his best race, and in another race the horse has to set or chase a 45, he won't finish with a 1.11, he'll fade badly or fold completely. Beyer speed figures don't consider pace at all, so a 60 BSF in a normal paced race is not equal to a 60 BSF in a faster paced race. So, the 60 is not transferable from race to race or track to track unless you consider pace. Pace makes the race, and pace also determines final time, and final time determines the classical speed figure (one that does not incorporate pace in it's assignment).

Surface: Los Al is a fast dirt surface and will result in faster times for the same classes of horses. Del Mar's new dirt surface is a tiring surface, so far, and will result in slower times for the same classes of horses. So, with class being the same at both tracks, a horse that runs a 60 figure at Del Mar is a better horse than horses that run 60 at Los Al, because those at Los Al are expending less energy for their 60 than those at Del Mar who run 60.

So, when you combine pace and class at both tracks, the horse that runs 60 as a best at Los Al will never run a 60 at Del Mar unless that horse runs against a much slower pace at Del Mar, or improves dramatically between its races at Los Al and its race at Del Mar. You can also add in shipping, new barns, different crowd, different track configuration, different air density and moisture content, prevailing wind direction in relation to the track, etc., etc., etc..

It is pure folly to think that a 60 at a cheaper track will translate to a 60 at a classier track. I'm surprised SRU, with all his years of handicapping, would even start a thread with this as the subject. This subject is 1st grade stuff, and this thread just proves that those who think the way SRU thinks about this subject, don't know much about pace influence, or class differences, or track to track differences, or Beyer speed figures for that matter. :bang:

First grade stuff is not sticking to the topic and feeling the need to throw in personal shots, stay classy now.

As far as the thread goes, we are not talking about the same things, you're talking about something completely different.

[raybo]

First grade stuff is not sticking to the topic and feeling the need to throw in personal shots, stay classy now.

As far as the thread goes, we are not talking about the same things, you're talking about something completely different.

From your OP:

Higher beyers at los al tbred
Can someone explain to me why you think bad horses can run normal beyers at los al but at del mar they basically can't finish?


My post explained that as well as I can explain it. You should know the answer yourself, if you have been in the game for any length of time at all. 1st grade stuff.

[Stillriledup]

From your OP:



My post explained that as well as I can explain it. You should know the answer yourself, if you have been in the game for any length of time at all. 1st grade stuff.

You're explaining to me about pace, I understand that fast paces make horses unravel if they're outclassed, I'm talking about beyers that are magically lower at DMR with the other stuff being equal, these horses are not 6-5 at Los al and 25/1at DMR, if that were the case I would say that I agree it has something to do with class, the examples (and there are many more I haven't listed) where its horses who are supposed to be competitive according to the odds, I'm not talking about no hopers.

[whodoyoulike]

You're explaining to me about pace, I understand that fast paces make horses unravel if they're outclassed, I'm talking about beyers that are magically lower at DMR with the other stuff being equal, these horses are not 6-5 at Los al and 25/1at DMR, if that were the case I would say that I agree it has something to do with class, the examples (and there are many more I haven't listed) where its horses who are supposed to be competitive according to the odds, I'm not talking about no hopers.

You and I know Beyer numbers are based on retroactive performances not prospective performances as you're suggesting.

[Cratos]

First grade stuff is not sticking to the topic and feeling the need to throw in personal shots, stay classy now.

As far as the thread goes, we are not talking about the same things, you're talking about something completely different.
Raybo has probably given the best explanation for the difference in performance by the horse going from Los Alamitos to Del Mar although the BSF might be interpreted as not providing such performance difference.

However the problem that hasn't been discussed is the nonhomogeity in the horse's ability running in race conditions being very similar by class, type, and distance.

[cj]

Race 2 today:

1 horse

Ran 86 TFUS first time at LRC, similar to his figures at TuP in prior starts. Ran 77 at Dmr in first effort on a track coded as strongly speed biased, and wasn't anywhere near "speed" in that race. Second Dmr start was involved in a speed duel in fast fractions at 6.5f (too long for her), packed it in and was given a 76 TFUS. In return to LRC, back at 5.5f, set a slow pace (coded in blue in our PPs) and wasn't able to hang on. She finished 2nd with an 82 TFUS.

Why "slow" at Dmr: Bias and Distance

5 horse

Ran 83 TFUS first out at Dmr in a good effort. 2nd Dmr race made a four wide move into a race that had a slow early, fast late shape. So just as her rider decided to go, everyone else was going too and she was hung wide. Terrible trip and a 62 TFUS. Then shipped to LRC and won with an 87 TFUS from just off the pace. I'd expect similar today at SA.

Why "slow" at Dmr: One race was fine, other was tough pace trip

6 horse

Ran 78 TFUS in maiden win at SA. Shipped to Dmr and tried the tougher STR condition, flashed early speed and quit. Dropped into OPEN claimer and did similar, flashed early speed and quit. Those two races she ran 63 and 64 TFUS. Then, she took a big class drop to a conditioned claimer, ran at her shortest distance of these four at 5.5f, and held on to win with a 76 TFUS.

The key to the 6 horse was the race rating which showed how much tougher the Dmr races were. In her maiden win, TFUS race rating was a 77. At Dmr, the two race ratings were both in the mid-90s, then at LRC she dropped into a race with only an 80 race rating.

Why "slow" at Dmr: class and pace

[Stillriledup]

Thanks for the writeup CJ, appreciate it.

I know in general that the DMR races are tougher, I see too many examples where the outclassed horse has too big of a drop off for my tastes.

Looking back at warrens my boy in today's 5th he had the ability at SA to run a 64 beyer on June 14th, they went 44 n change and he held evenly. He also had the ability to run 45 halves at Los al, but his DMR race he chased a 47.4 and stopped at 4-1.

[cj]

Thanks for the writeup CJ, appreciate it.

I know in general that the DMR races are tougher, I see too many examples where the outclassed horse has too big of a drop off for my tastes.

Looking back at warrens my boy in today's 5th he had the ability at SA to run a 64 beyer on June 14th, they went 44 n change and he held evenly. He also had the ability to run 45 halves at Los al, but his DMR race he chased a 47.4 and stopped at 4-1.

Looks to me like he just didn't care for the Dmr surface or had an off day. He ran similar figures at SA as he did at LRC, so I can't just say it was a LRC thing.

I've also seen horses that have run as well or better at Dmr than at LRC.

[raybo]

You're explaining to me about pace, I understand that fast paces make horses unravel if they're outclassed, I'm talking about beyers that are magically lower at DMR with the other stuff being equal, these horses are not 6-5 at Los al and 25/1at DMR, if that were the case I would say that I agree it has something to do with class, the examples (and there are many more I haven't listed) where its horses who are supposed to be competitive according to the odds, I'm not talking about no hopers.

The odds are just public opinion in the form of money bet. Public opinion is wrong much more often than it is right. The fact that the odds look similar between two horses, one from Los Al, and one from Del Mar or SA, or other higher class tracks, points out that many players in the win pools don't know the basics of pace and class and surface/track configuration, etc., and how they translate, or don't translate in this case, from track to track.

Would you expect a horse from RP or DeD to ship to CD and run the same final time/speed fig at CD or Kee or any other higher class track, even if its odds say it should? if your answer is yes, then I can't help you, and I suspect that is one reason Thaskalos said what he did to that other poster, it's just a waste of time.

[raybo]

Looks to me like he just didn't care for the Dmr surface or had an off day. He ran similar figures at SA as he did at LRC, so I can't just say it was a LRC thing.

I've also seen horses that have run as well or better at Dmr than at LRC.

I agree, there are exceptions to everything, but generally, horses from a cheap track will not repeat their numbers at higher class tracks (even in classes that "supposedly" are the same), or tracks with totally different surfaces and track configurations, unless it suits them better in the first place or suits them better now. And, of course, there is form to consider also.

[NorCalGreg]

if your answer is yes, then I can't help you, and I suspect that is one reason Thaskalos said what he did to that other poster, it's just a waste of time.

Another board "expert" that picks Bayern on his pace figs AGAIN...but clearly understands pace handicapping at a superior level.. don't waste your precious time. This board seems to be a lot of "experts" that talk a good game.
Luckily, more that want to talk handicapping :ThmbUp:
have a good day
-NCG

[Cratos]

Thanks for the writeup CJ, appreciate it.

I know in general that the DMR races are tougher, I see too many examples where the outclassed horse has too big of a drop off for my tastes.

Looking back at warrens my boy in today's 5th he had the ability at SA to run a 64 beyer on June 14th, they went 44 n change and he held evenly. He also had the ability to run 45 halves at Los al, but his DMR race he chased a 47.4 and stopped at 4-1.
I never tell or encourage any bettor how to wager their money, but what Raybo stated in his earlier post was the probable "cause" and what CJ's post reflects is the probable "effects".

Horserace handicapping is always about the conducted analytics and at that point the "cause" understanding will trump the "effect" explanation.

[raybo]

Another board "expert" that picks Bayern on his pace figs AGAIN...but clearly understands pace handicapping at a superior level.. don't waste your precious time. This board seems to be a lot of "experts" that talk a good game.
Luckily, more that want to talk handicapping :ThmbUp:
have a good day
-NCG

I've never called myself an expert, and yes, I do have a soft spot for Bayern, I've not tried to cover that up either. Pace analysis is only part of the game, as most pace handicappers know, but the numbers are the numbers, and if the horse runs those numbers and has a decent trip he is a prime contender, Unfortunately, Bayern appeared to have lost his interest in racing. Which means the numbers mean less. There is always the caveat that the horse has to run to his numbers, none of us know if that will happen in an individual race or not. That's racing. When we predict winners here or anywhere else, that is all we are doing, predicting (which often has little to do with reality in horse racing).

Have a good day!

[ultracapper]

Thanks for the writeup CJ, appreciate it.

I know in general that the DMR races are tougher, I see too many examples where the outclassed horse has too big of a drop off for my tastes.

Looking back at warrens my boy in today's 5th he had the ability at SA to run a 64 beyer on June 14th, they went 44 n change and he held evenly. He also had the ability to run 45 halves at Los al, but his DMR race he chased a 47.4 and stopped at 4-1.

The race at Delmar was 1 mile. Can't compare that to the sprints you are using at Los Al. Couldn't get anywhere near the lead at Delmar either like he did his last 2 at Los Al. He ran a nice race his last at Los Al, but he'll be up against it in here, particularly with the horse to his immediate inside.

[Stillriledup]

Looks to me like he just didn't care for the Dmr surface or had an off day. He ran similar figures at SA as he did at LRC, so I can't just say it was a LRC thing.

I've also seen horses that have run as well or better at Dmr than at LRC.

Maybe its more 'hating DMR' than loving Los al. Ill have to keep watching.

[Stillriledup]

Thank you guys for the spirited debate, appreciate the input.

[raybo]

The race at Delmar was 1 mile. Can't compare that to the sprints you are using at Los Al. Couldn't get anywhere near the lead at Delmar either like he did his last 2 at Los Al. He ran a nice race his last at Los Al, but he'll be up against it in here, particularly with the horse to his immediate inside.

Good call! :ThmbUp:

[whodoyoulike]

Can someone explain to me why you think bad horses can run normal beyers at los al but at del mar they basically can't finish?



Look at race two tomorrow at SA, the 1, 5 and 6 all big improvement at los al.

Race 5, the 4 horse somehow runs a 63 Beyer. The 8 horse runs a 52 Beyer at los al, goes to DMR and can't finish, than comes back to los al and resumes his normal beyers off 51 and 60.

Too many examples to list, I don't have the answer.

I don't know about you guys but I have to know ......

Race 2 5.5f $19k 6 entries (time: 64.94) :1: myrna lou (7.40 - 3rd) :5: fab four ever (2.00* - 2nd) and :6: oleanderpolarbear (13.80 - 4th).

* betting favorite

The :2: was DQ and placed 1st to 5th.

Race 5 6f mc20 $17k 12 entries (time: 70.99) :4: son of eleanor (8.30 - 5th) and :8: warren my boy (4.60 - 3rd).

I feel much better now.

[ultracapper]

Good call! :ThmbUp:

I don't know if some of the other posters in the thread will agree with this, but I thought Warren's My Boy may have just run the best race of his life. He took part in a pretty lively battle up front and hung in there pretty well to the finish. He was prime fodder for the "suck ups" to swallow whole, but he kept himself running just enough to hold on to the show. If he finds himself in a little more friendly company on the front end next time, he could be sitting on a win. I'm sure some of the other posters are looking at this race as a regression, but I think that he looks to be progressing just fine in his development.

I hope this low percentage trainer does the right things with him between now and his next start.

[Stillriledup]

Not every horse who flops at DMR who ran much better at los al is a victim of pace, these are not all speed/presser types who get caught up in battles and run 0 Beyer figs or something that's 40 or 50 points worse than their norm.

Also, I don't know who said this, but there was a debate in another thread about how horses don't know if they're 50-1 or not and they don't lose confidence when consistently beaten by better competition, so if this is true, that flies in the face of what we are talking about here that horses somehow 'know' to run slower behind better competition.

[ultracapper]

BTW, I don't think he'll be assigned a 60 BSF after that race. He may not score a 50.

[whodoyoulike]

Not every horse who flops at DMR who ran much better at los al is a victim of pace, these are not all speed/presser types who get caught up in battles and run 0 Beyer figs or something that's 40 or 50 points worse than their norm.

Also, I don't know who said this, but there was a debate in another thread about how horses don't know if they're 50-1 or not and they don't lose confidence when consistently beaten by better competition, so if this is true, that flies in the face of what we are talking about here that horses somehow 'know' to run slower behind better competition.

I'm pretty certain it was you!!

[Stillriledup]

I'm pretty certain it was you!!

You are? :faint:

[whodoyoulike]

You are? :faint:

I also remember that comment and I'm pretty confident. I always pay attention to what you write.

[ultracapper]

Not every horse who flops at DMR who ran much better at los al is a victim of pace, these are not all speed/presser types who get caught up in battles and run 0 Beyer figs or something that's 40 or 50 points worse than their norm.

Also, I don't know who said this, but there was a debate in another thread about how horses don't know if they're 50-1 or not and they don't lose confidence when consistently beaten by better competition, so if this is true, that flies in the face of what we are talking about here that horses somehow 'know' to run slower behind better competition.

The fields were just better at Delmar for each class. The N1X fields at Delmar were better than the N1X fields at Los Al, the Maiden 20K fields were better at Delmar than they were at Los Al, and so on and so on. The racing is just better at Delmar than at Los Al. Look at all the funny little bottom level claiming N2Xs they carded at Los Al that aren't even a part of the condition book at Santa Anita or Delmar. The bigger barns just weren't participating at Los Al with what they were entering at Delmar. Just look at the horses Baffert was entering at Los Al in the MSW races. He was sending out his second stringers, and a number of them were able to get the job done there after failing multiple times at Santa Anita and Delmar.

I know what you're trying to say. So they're racing against better horses at Delmar. Why can't they still run their race that they ran at Los Al? All things being equal, why can't a horse go 45.2 111 at Delmar 3 weeks after he just went 45.2 111 at Los Al? Why does he all the sudden go 46 114? Because it doesn't work the way you're wanting it to work. These horses aren't machines and they don't exist in a vacuum. And I don't know that any one can prove that the horses don't have some kind of awareness of the company they keep. There are those that say they don't know the quality of the other horses in the race, and other's, like myself, that believe they do know. They are herd animals that establish a pecking order in their society. I don't know why they wouldn't do that in the paddock, during warm ups, and during the race itself. I can't believe that they can just turn off this aspect of them that is ingrained in their DNA.

And SRU, a pace battle doesn't have to just take place on the front end. There can be a very lively pace battle occurring between 3 horses 8 lengths behind a 3 horse pace battle on the front end. The winner of that pace battle in the rear of the field will be the horse that will have an opportunity to make a final potential winning run, while the other 2 just finish out the race, maybe even get eased.

[ultracapper]

I'm doing this from memory, but it would be interesting to take a look at. I believe every filly or mare that filled out the exacta with Zenyatta was either 1st or 2nd with a half mile to go. I can not remember one time a filly or mare finishing evenly from the back of the pack with Zenyatta. She put them away in the back of the field, and it was only the horses she didn't fry in the back of the field that lit up the board with her. I cannot remember a single race she was in that another closer filled the exacta.

If I remember correctly, Blame wasn't right on the engine, he rated in his BC win. But then again, 1) She had never before run with a horse of his caliber, and 2) he never saw her until the last 25 yards anyhow, so even though neither was part of the pace, they didn't run together at all. Maybe in her other Breeder Cup races it was different, but all those California races she won, nobody ever came with her.

[Stillriledup]

Thanks UC, interesting info, I enjoyed reading that. :ThmbUp:

[ultracapper]

I love this game man, and I've always wanted to be good at it. But it's hard. It's real hard. I'll never understand everything about it I'd like to. And I probably don't understand the things I think I do as well as I think I do. But it's great to air out thoughts on a forum like this. 3/4 of what I've posted somebody can step up and say......nah, BS. I'm good with that if they throw another idea out.

[Stillriledup]

I love this game man, and I've always wanted to be good at it. But it's hard. It's real hard. I'll never understand everything about it I'd like to. And I probably don't understand the things I think I do as well as I think I do. But it's great to air out thoughts on a forum like this. 3/4 of what I've posted somebody can step up and say......nah, BS. I'm good with that if they throw another idea out.

Are you not good? You sound like you know a decent amount, I like your passion!

[ultracapper]

I have my moments, I have my disappointments, just like everybody else, you included.

[Stillriledup]

I have my moments, I have my disappointments, just like everybody else, you included.

Yep, we all have breathtaking highs and beyond despair lows, just gotta make sure the highs outweigh the lows.

[cj]

Yep, we all have breathtaking highs and beyond despair lows, just gotta make sure the highs outweigh the lows.

Depends on your personality and how you handle wins and losses.

[whodoyoulike]

Don't Beyer numbers incorporate class in their number?

Where a less classier race running similar #'s compared to a classier race at a similar distance for that day won't be assigned an equal or similar number with each other e.g., a MSW and a Stakes (at 98) race. The MSW wouldn't also be assigned a 98.

Means a winner of a maiden 20 finishes in 1:10 gets the same Beyer a G1 winner in 1:10 gets for that day, as long as they don't start splitting out races and saying the track changed and many of the other things that they do if conditions change during the day. All things being equal, a 1:10 is going to get the same Beyer all day long.

I don't want to beat a dead horse (no pun) but are you certain?

See article link .......

http://www.equinometry.com/2013/04/28/speed-figures/#more-1969

Par Speed Figures typically correlate with Class, meaning as the Class level rises so to does the Par Speed Figure.

The most likely winner of a race will have exceeded the Par for today’s race in one if its most recent races, preferably at the same or a similar Class level.

[ultracapper]

The par speed time will rise with class because the classier races will have been run faster.

[ultracapper]

There have got to be a number of members here that can refer you to old articles in some of the old handicapping magazines that explain how to make the simplest speed figures. When I started handicapping in 1982, there were articles just about every month in one of those magazines explaining how to make numbers. Andy Beyer had just come out with his books over the previous 8 to 10 years, and everybody betting horses wanted to start making their own numbers. I remember lots of articles those first few years on how to make real simple par times.

If a Grade 1 should go 1:08 and it goes 1:09
and a claimer should go 1:10 and it goes 1:09

they both get whatever value the 1:09 is for that day. Now, of course, that value will be 5 lengths lower than the Grade 1 should have got, and it will be 5 lengths faster than the claimer should have got, but it will be the same for both.

[steveb]

Would it be somewhat similar to a sucked along time in harness where a faster time for a horse can be somewhat deceiving?

i don't follow harness, but what you allude to is more than likely correct, and the same is happening in gallops too.

when the pace is fast then invariably the final time is fast too.
with the fast pace the whole field is going to be running along quicker than they normally would to keep in touch.

with that scenaraio most horses will return numbers higher than they normally would.
of course, next time out they generally feel the effect of the hard run and run poorly or just revert to around about their usual numbers.

of course a lot depends on what points you are going to take your measurements from.

to decide what 'pace' is, i guess one needs to find the optimum way to pace a race, and then with each individual race you have the tool to find the variance from that optimum.

despite thask saying i am wrong, i am 100% that i am not, as far as this goes.
of course they may often go worse than they normally would, but in the main they will run faster.
it's just that the faster will more often than not be meaningless as far as the future goes.

[NorCalGreg]

The par speed time will rise with class because the classier races will have been run faster.


The mid 70's called..........they want their quote back

[Stillriledup]

The mid 70's called..........they want their quote back

MKEQm10-n84

[no breathalyzer]

Beyers at Delmar been on the light side for yrs. when when i did put more weight in beyers figs i would chuck them out for that track

[classhandicapper]

Del Mar had been running on synthetic for a number of years. Despite some speed figure adjustments, I think synthetic figures and PARs (at least at the top of the scale) have generally been lower than for races on dirt (the same is true for turf).

I think the major point on this issue is that over and above normal fluctuations in figures, when a horse switches tracks there could be class issues that are not always obvious, shipping issues that impact specific horses, and possibly even surface preferences. When a horse switches circuits you have the incremental issue of different drug policies.

If you look at individual races or horses a TON of them are not going to make any sense. What you want to do is look at all the shippers from one track to another. Then you at least might have a sample size large enough to draw some conclusions.