Breeders Cup: Is there a Single?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Obviously there are some out there.

If one is to start formulating horizontal tickets, especially 5s and 6s, they need a single or 2.

Which race(s) are those going to come from?

[Stillriledup]

You're 'supposed to' single a 20-1 shot somewhere and go for life changer.

There's 300 something other days of the year that you can single 'beholder' or 'amer pharaoh' so take the shot on THIS day to become a legend.

Legends are born at the Breeders Cup.

[plainolebill]

Didn't two guys nail the 5 million buck pick 6 with a $32 ticket the year Volponi won the BCC? Balls of steel. :D

[Speed Figure]

That pick six was a scam! so there were no balls of steel!

[tanner12oz]

Historically speaking which races throw the biggest numbers and which throw the most chalk?

[Bennie]

Not sure if this is 1 or 2 years back but kept some stats for some races. This does not include last year!
Dirt mile - last 6 fav out of top 3 finish
Distaff - 7 single digit odds winners in a row
Juv. Fillies - 24 of 30 fav. ITM
F&M Turf -Last 15 only 3 fav. out of the top 3
Juv. - favorite in top 2, 8 in a row
These are just some stats I have laying around and as I said, not sure if 1 or 2 years back.

[spiketoo]

That pick six was a scam! so there were no balls of steel!

Not too far off from balls of steel but they had brains of mush.

IIRC, wasn't it like 2 or 3 singles and then ALL-ALL-ALL as the actually tix were not sent from their hub to the tote until after the P6 was well underway? Or something like that.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Not too far off from balls of steel but they had brains of mush.

IIRC, wasn't it like 2 or 3 singles and then ALL-ALL-ALL as the actually tix were not sent from their hub to the tote until after the P6 was well underway? Or something like that.

4 singles and then All-All.

They were able to get into the backdoor of the system after the 4th leg and alter tickets before they were locked in.

Volponi doesn't win, they probably get away with it.

[Stillriledup]

4 singles and then All-All.

They were able to get into the backdoor of the system after the 4th leg and alter tickets before they were locked in.

Volponi doesn't win, they probably get away with it.

And since then, we have heard nothing about tote security. I guess we all should trust them that this stuff isn't still going on.

[Stillriledup]

The 2 to filly song something is going to be 'everybody's single.

Is there a way to beat her?

[taxicab]

The 2 to filly song something is going to be 'everybody's single.

Is there a way to beat her?


An outside post could be trouble for a lightly raced 2yo.
Keenland will draw 14 for a 8.5 furlong race,I would get away from her if she drew the thirteen or fourteen hole.

[Stillriledup]

An outside post could be trouble for a lightly raced 2yo.
Keenland will draw 14 for a 8.5 furlong race,I would get away from her if she drew the thirteen or fourteen hole.

All depends on the price but I think you're right, I think enough people love her that they won't change their pick w poor post draw.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

The 2 to filly song something is going to be 'everybody's single.

Is there a way to beat her?

Not a big fan of singling in the Juvenile races cause you get so many crazy outcomes in those lightly raced fields. Songbird does look pretty tough though.

Nickname is an interesting filly. May get double digit odds on her if she runs.

[ultracapper]

4 singles and then All-All.

They were able to get into the backdoor of the system after the 4th leg and alter tickets before they were locked in.

Volponi doesn't win, they probably get away with it.

There were 6 winning tickets, all from the same source, all structured exactly the same.........A/A/A/A/*/*. Valponi totally screwed them.

[Stillriledup]

Not a big fan of singling in the Juvenile races cause you get so many crazy outcomes in those lightly raced fields. Songbird does look pretty tough though.

Nickname is an interesting filly. May get double digit odds on her if she runs.

Don't juvy races produce the most faves/shortest prices over the years? I thought juvy races are most reliable for winning short priced horses.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Don't juvy races produce the most faves/shortest prices over the years? I thought juvy races are most reliable for winning short priced horses.

Take Charge Brandi paid $61.70 last year as the winner of the juvenile filly.

Texas Red paid $29.80 in the juvenile male.

Ria Antonia won the juvy filly in 2013 at 32/1 and paid $66.60.

New Year's Day paid $23 for the win in the juvenile male in 2013.

[Bennie]

If you check my previous post, I stated Juvenile races have a high percentage of favorites in the money but not always winning. It's safe to bet against them in the win spot but if you play exacta's , trifecta's and supers then don't leave them out.

[tanner12oz]

Like others have said "songbird" was being touted as THE single on tvg yesterday. Would rather take I chance with a euro on the weeds.

[Valuist]

4 singles and then All-All.

They were able to get into the backdoor of the system after the 4th leg and alter tickets before they were locked in.

Volponi doesn't win, they probably get away with it.

I thought it was 3 singles and 3 alls, so I believe it was 1 x 1 x 1 x 12 x 12 x 12.

When it came out that was how the ticket was structured, the red flags came out. There was something like two 15-1s that were singled; think about it. Somebody is sharp enough to actually single two 15-1s but then can't make any distinction at all in the other races? They have pic 3s for that. If they had gone 1 x 1 x 1 x 6 x 5 x 5 or something similar, they probably go under the radar. Of course, they not have used Volponi, either. They pulled this off on several Pic 6s which were far lower profile, and they didn't have to answer questions from the media. If they weren't so greedy, who knows how long it could've continued?

[ebcorde]

Obviously there are some out there.

If one is to start formulating horizontal tickets, especially 5s and 6s, they need a single or 2.

Which race(s) are those going to come from?

Any Horse ranked in the top 10 in the world.

[ebcorde]

I thought it was 3 singles and 3 alls, so I believe it was 1 x 1 x 1 x 12 x 12 x 12.

When it came out that was how the ticket was structured, the red flags came out. There was something like two 15-1s that were singled; think about it. Somebody is sharp enough to actually single two 15-1s but then can't make any distinction at all in the other races? They have pic 3s for that. If they had gone 1 x 1 x 1 x 6 x 5 x 5 or something similar, they probably go under the radar. Of course, they not have used Volponi, either. They pulled this off on several Pic 6s which were far lower profile, and they didn't have to answer questions from the media. If they weren't so greedy, who knows how long it could've continued?

back then they submitted the Pick 6 after Race 4. so it was 1-1-1-1-all-all

[ebcorde]

Like others have said "songbird" was being touted as THE single on tvg yesterday. Would rather take I chance with a euro on the weeds.

don't let those a-holes ruin your day

[ebcorde]

split my ticket on the late pick 3/4. my son said don't do that. well, he's the gambler, If I listened to him I would have it the Pick 4 , but the Pick 3 was A-okay

I use 4 sources for big events, this year I'm adding timeform

1. RacingPost I look up each Horses RPR (great for the Euro's Karakonite was the best rated euro in that race)
2. chef-de-race.com I like his pf ratings. (great for stakes racing)
3. Top 50-100 Horse in the world. (good for euro's and the top 10 for singles!)
4. Brisnet


The year Zenyatta won the classic, 3 of the top 10 in the world that year won. Conduit, Goldikova, Zenyatta. The pick 6 was over 2 million I think. so it's not that bad an idea.

[arw629]

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Golden Horn
Tonalist

[Stillriledup]

I thought it was 3 singles and 3 alls, so I believe it was 1 x 1 x 1 x 12 x 12 x 12.

When it came out that was how the ticket was structured, the red flags came out. There was something like two 15-1s that were singled; think about it. Somebody is sharp enough to actually single two 15-1s but then can't make any distinction at all in the other races? They have pic 3s for that. If they had gone 1 x 1 x 1 x 6 x 5 x 5 or something similar, they probably go under the radar. Of course, they not have used Volponi, either. They pulled this off on several Pic 6s which were far lower profile, and they didn't have to answer questions from the media. If they weren't so greedy, who knows how long it could've continued?

The problem wasnt the structure it was getting greedy and hitting repeat. If they had it just one time, nobody would have said a thing, which is pretty scary that someone can have 4 singles in the BC with two All's and not get questioned or have someone research every winning ticket to make sure this is all legit.

[ManU918]

With the pick 6 only being $1 this year players are going to have a massive amount of coverage and the payouts won't be nowhere near what they were in the past. That being said I'll be fine with scoping a 25 dime pick 6.

[Stillriledup]

Take Charge Brandi paid $61.70 last year as the winner of the juvenile filly.

Texas Red paid $29.80 in the juvenile male.

Ria Antonia won the juvy filly in 2013 at 32/1 and paid $66.60.

New Year's Day paid $23 for the win in the juvenile male in 2013.

And every other year was won by the favorite :D

[Lemon Drop Husker]

And every other year was won by the favorite :D

Ummm..., no.

The Juvenile Filly has been pretty chalky in which the favorite has won in the following years since 2001 (02, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 10, and 11). However, the favorite has not won in 4 of the last 6 years and the last 3 years running.

The Juvenile Male has been a crapshoot at best, with the chalk only winning in '07 and '12 since 2001. Here are the payouts on those winners: $16.40, $10.20, $55.60, $58.60, $11.00, $32.40, $9.20, $63.20, $16.20, and the previous 2 I mentioned before for 2013 and 2014 in New Year's Day and Texas Red both at double digit odds paying over $20 to win.

The Juvenile Filly has a pretty good history of chalk walking away with it, but the last 2 years has brought in some huge bombs to light up the tote board. Will Songbird bring back a chalky Juvenile Filly history? You'll have some fillies in there with 2 career races going to the gate. Most of the major contenders with 3 or less. Not sure about you, but I don't get real excited about singling a race with that kind of field when putting together a large wagering ticket.

[Robes]

There were 6 winning tickets, all from the same source, all structured exactly the same.........A/A/A/A/*/*. Valponi totally screwed them.

If that guy had a horseplayer for a partener this thing will be still going on as we speak or ( as we type) Volponi or no Volponi he never gets caught,all he needed was an understanding of how p6 tickets are structured in the real world of horse race handicapping😊

[menifee]

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Golden Horn
Tonalist


Smart man.

[tanner12oz]

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Tonalist

did the classic get moved to Belmont?

[arw629]

did the classic get moved to Belmont?

Are you implying he doesn't ship well?
He shows up in all of the big races at saratoga and belmont the past two yrs and is right there in all of them with a little more luck on the win end at belmont...this horse is unlucky to not have more wins and the.jcgc is a nice confidence booster going forward where he was very tactical which seems to fit the billing as to how keeneland has been playing ....just think ...bayern wired the field last yr on that speedway....this yr you're going to see a different tonalist in the classic

[whodoyoulike]

I thought it was 3 singles and 3 alls, so I believe it was 1 x 1 x 1 x 12 x 12 x 12.

When it came out that was how the ticket was structured, the red flags came out. There was something like two 15-1s that were singled; think about it. Somebody is sharp enough to actually single two 15-1s but then can't make any distinction at all in the other races? They have pic 3s for that. If they had gone 1 x 1 x 1 x 6 x 5 x 5 or something similar, they probably go under the radar. Of course, they not have used Volponi, either. They pulled this off on several Pic 6s which were far lower profile, and they didn't have to answer questions from the media. If they weren't so greedy, who knows how long it could've continued?

What exactly was their penalties?

Did they go to prison (hope they are still there) and pay fines?

[castaway01]

What exactly was their penalties?

Did they go to prison (hope they are still there) and pay fines?

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/20130/three-sentenced-in-breeders-cup-ultra-pick-6-scam (Sentencing)

[horses4courses]

Liam's Map will be a single for most on Friday in the Dirt Mile

Legatissimo another single on Friday in the F+M Turf

Golden Horn and Flintshire will make Saturday's Turf a match

Naturally, no guarantee these horses will win.
They will take a load of money, though.
Plenty of nice mutuels to be had playing against them.

[Tom]

I heard yesterday that Flintshire is going to Japan instead?

[horses4courses]

I heard yesterday that Flintshire is going to Japan instead?

Yeah, that may be happening.
I guess today is the deadline for BC entries?

[ebcorde]

Yeah, that may be happening.
I guess today is the deadline for BC entries?


anyone know why? I find that odd because he ran at Toga Travers day. Japan is not easy, Flintshire can win there, but it's likely against 20 runners.

I wish Golden Horn shows up, He won't.

[CosmicWon]

anyone know why? I find that odd because he ran at Toga Travers day. Japan is not easy, Flintshire can win there, but it's likely against 20 runners.

I wish Golden Horn shows up, He won't.
Apparently Flintshire is headed to Japan Cup instead of Breeders' Cup because, since he was never vaccinated against West Nile, he didn't have enough time to both run in the Turf and then travel over there and pass Japanese quarantine too. True story.

Also, BC compiled decent info on re: payoffs, trainer records, charts, handle, odds etc of all their races here http://stats.breederscup.com/#

[spiketoo]

JPN breeding looks more favorably ($$$) on a Cup win than a BC one.