Head to Head Horse Matchups

[Jeff P]

Anybody have any real experience betting head to head Horse Matchups of the kind currently being offered at Pinnacle? I looked at them for the first time ever today and came to a couple of conclusions. Since I don't have any experience with this type of betting I'm wondering if there are any pitfalls that I'm just not seeing.

It seems to me, on the surface anyway, that if you excersise a little bit of patience, you should literally be able to beat the pants off the bookmaker. For starters, instead of betting into an 18 percent parimutuel take you are betting into (by my calculations) a rather smallish 5 percent house vigorish. And instead of having to finish ahead of an entire field, all you have to do to win is get your selection to finish ahead of a single horse.

Since all the bookmaker is really trying to do is create a line intended to entice an equal amount of play on both sides, wouldn't there occasionally be situations where the line might be incorrect in relation to the true probabilities involved with the matchup itself? When this is so, shouldn't you then find yourself at a great advantage over the house?

I'll throw out an example. Today's 4th race at Belmont:
Castle Heights -138 vs Mamboaire +128

In this case they are offering a 28 percent premium if you take Mamboaire over Castle Heights. Just using Bris Prime Power, Mamboaire has a 12 point advantage over Castle Heights. Now, if I was a betting man (LOL) this one would be a no brainer. They're offering 1.28 to 1.00 for Mamboaire to beat just one horse (Castle Heights.) Consider that vs the parimutuel pool. I'm guessing you might get 3-1 or so later on today for Mamboaire to beat the entire field. If you like Mamboaire, which one is better?

But wait, there's more.

Since all the bookmaker is really trying to do is create a line intended to entice an equal amount of play on both sides, wouldn't there be situations where the line changes after wagering starts? If this is so, after placing a bet on one side of the line, and if the line changes enough after that, couldn't you then theoretically place a bet on the other side of the line, and guarantee yourself a small 4 to 5 percent profit no matter which side wins the matchup? In vegas, there are guys who specialize in "taking the middle" like this, except they do it when baseball lines change.

Is there something that I'm just not seeing here?

Would appreciate any thoughts or comments from those who have some experience with this type of wagering.

[Valuist]

I like them as another option. Sometimes my opinion on a race may be more of a negative one on a particular horse. I think these types of wagers may appeal more to those who wager on sports, and are used to moneyline plays.

[yak merchant]

I play them all of the time. Started playing them when I'd visited Vegas years ago, and realized how great a bet they were when the Belmont last year rolled around and You were gettting better than even money on Empire Maker to beat Funny Cide, while the win on Empire maker wasn't near enough to justify the win bet. Really like having a horse come in 15th in the Derby and win your matchup because the other horse finished 18th. Yes they are targetted at sports bettors, but I've made a killing in the big races the last couple of years. As for the day to day matchups they can offer alot of value but the guys at pinnacle are no morons. Usually they are routes,turfs with crazy pace scenarios in which the two horses are almost always in the same classification of E,EP,PS,or S or close. They never matchup an E horse with an S and half the time there are layoffs involved. And in theory you'd think they'd be trying to get even money on both sides, but in reality I think they are trying to get you to bet on the wrong horse in most cases. You'd be amazed at how often the horse with worse numbers wins the matchup. Either way it can't be worse, than giving old Frankie 20 cents of every dollar.

[Jeff P]

Interestingly enough, with about 20 minutes to post time, they took the Belmont race that I used in my example off of their web site. I wonder, did they read my post? Hmmmmm.... Or did they simply get enough action on both sides to guarantee themselves a profit?

[Jeff P]

Belmont - Race 4
# Win Place Show
4 $5.30 $3.50 $2.50
8 . $19.00 $7.40
1 . . $2.70

:) ...

So here's a horse that pays $5.30 for a $2.00 win bet to beat a FULL FIELD on the turf. But pays $4.56 for a $2.00 bet on a head to head matchup to beat a SINGLE HORSE?

Two Words. Simply Unbelievable.

[Valuist]

Nice catch. Its all about value and you hit it here.

[cj]

Originally posted by Jeff P
Interestingly enough, with about 20 minutes to post time, they took the Belmont race that I used in my example off of their web site. I wonder, did they read my post? Hmmmmm.... Or did they simply get enough action on both sides to guarantee themselves a profit?

I've been following their match ups, and they are beatable if, like you said, you pick your spots. Limits and no rebates, though.

As for the 20mtp thing, I'm pretty sure they always do this. They don't want people seeing the "real" odds when they make these bets.

[Jeff P]

The more I look at these types of bets the more I'm convinced that they can, under certain circumstances, offer great value. In the 7th race at Churchill today they were offering Alumni Hall minus 127 vs Manchurian. Alumni Hall won the race, winning against a field of five horses and paid $3.60 to win. Amazingly, a $2.00 bet in the head to head matchup would have resulted in a payoff of $3.57. The key difference being, if you take the matchup bet, you only need to beat one horse instead of four. :)

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Jeff P,

Pinnacle takes them down as soon as the race before goes official.

They have just started offering them on a daily basis within the last month. There is definitely value in most of them if you have a opinion on the particular match-up.

The days of horse match-ups being offered by most places is pretty much over. Imagine being able to find one that you thought was 50cents off and being able to bet 3K with only a 5 to 10cent line movement before you could re-bet. You could make 3, 4, or even 5 bets before you would think that the line was getting close to right. Those days are over (for now) as the books who took them all got killed.

Kudos to Pinnacle for putting them up with "more than fair" juice for the player.

I'm also including a link to a recent discussion about them for you.

match-up discussion (http://www.mwforums.com/fusetalk/messageview.cfm?catid=22&threadid=97980)

[vespa7]

Horse match-ups for a bookie at 1.91 or -110 are suicide especially if you have sharp clientel. Pinacle has a ton of business they can afford to take some hits on the matchups as a promotion to get you playing horses thru their web site and their sports.

[thelyingthief]

a couple of observations: they don't build life size models of paris and dig lakes in the middle of the desert offering stupid wagers, it just ain't done that way. nor are you betting against bookmakers, you're betting against other handicappers, and the house is offering odds that pretty much even the field as far as attractiveness of a proposition goes, so they can middle the field and get that five per cent without risk. and there is the actual proposition, which often will match two virtually indistinquishable horses, and ask you to make a decision before hand.

it can be done, of course, but it ain't that easy. nothing those birds do is "easy".

[Valuist]

Racing is a small amount of the handle Pinnacle gets, and as racing handle goes, I would guess that the matchups are a small percentage of the racing handle, so I'm sure it doesn't hurt them too much.

[penguinfan]

Originally posted by yak merchant
As for the day to day matchups they can offer alot of value but the guys at pinnacle are no morons.

I'll take that a step further and say they are the sharpest guys on the net without exception. I have worked for, and still do on the odd occasion, a sports handicapping web-site and can tell you that Pinnacle is a great book, but THE toughest to beat.

Penguinfan

[Jeff P]

I'll take that a step further and say they are the sharpest guys on the net without exception. I have worked for, and still do on the odd occasion, a sports handicapping web-site and can tell you that Pinnacle is a great book, but THE toughest to beat.


Maybe it's just a case of beginner's luck in this area. But in the last week I've spotted twelve matchups where I think the line was wrong. I've won seven and lost five, and on four of the seven that I won I took the underdog. So yes, even though Pinnacle might employ somebody who is pretty sharp for purposes of creating the matchup, I'm beginning to think that the matchups are beatable.

But something more interesting popped up when I started analyzing Pinnacle's matchups carefully. I've found that in those races where I liked one side or the other strongly enough to justify making a bet, one of the two horses from the matchup has won the race outright better than 50 percent of the time. So maybe there's a way I can put the sharp guy from Pinnacle to work for me by combining his insight with my own approach during contender selection. Food for thought.

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by Jeff P
I'll take that a step further and say they are the sharpest guys on the net without exception. I have worked for, and still do on the odd occasion, a sports handicapping web-site and can tell you that Pinnacle is a great book, but THE toughest to beat.


Maybe it's just a case of beginner's luck in this area. But in the last week I've spotted twelve matchups where I think the line was wrong. I've won seven and lost five, and on four of the seven that I won I took the underdog. So yes, even though Pinnacle might employ somebody who is pretty sharp for purposes of creating the matchup, I'm beginning to think that the matchups are beatable.

But something more interesting popped up when I started analyzing Pinnacle's matchups carefully. I've found that in those races where I liked one side or the other strongly enough to justify making a bet, one of the two horses from the matchup has won the race outright better than 50 percent of the time. So maybe there's a way I can put the sharp guy from Pinnacle to work for me by combining his insight with my own approach during contender selection. Food for thought.

What's the ROI if you were to just bet them both to win?

[Jeff P]

These are the twelve races where I liked the matchup strongly enough to make a bet along with the horse that placed best of the two involved in the matchup:

06-10-04 BEL R4 Mamboaire WON 5.30
06-10-04 CDX R7 Alumni Hall WON 3.60
06-10-04 HOL R7 Tamweel WON 9.00
06-11-04 BEL R6 Deflation WON 4.40
06-11-04 BEL R7 Limero (ARG) 3rd
06-11-04 HOL R8 Spend Spend Spend WON 15.60
06-12-04 HOL R3 Continental Red 5th
06-13-04 BEL R8 Mambo Slew WON 12.00
06-13-04 BEL R9 Dixie Bourbon 2nd
06-13-04 CDX R9 Southern Order WON 14.20
06-13-04 HOL R3 Black Horse Money 4th
06-13-04 HOL R4 Red Neck Lady 2nd

Recap based on a $2.00 win bet on both horses from the matchup in each race:

Returned: $64.10
..Amt Bet: $48.00+
......Profit: $16.10
........ROI: 1.335
........PCT: 7/12 = .5833

I don't know if the guy from Pinnacle is brilliant enough to consistently help me get 58 percent winners from two horses while showing a profit or if this is just a short term aberration.

But to me, it's interesting as hell.

[tdthomas]

Jeff P, it is interesting.

Do you have a link to these head to head matchups? Do they have past results listed?

I am wondering who was Continental REd matched up against?

[BETKING]

Better still, dutch them both to win. Will Pinnacle let you bet both horses? Mabe at different times. You could form a team and then both of you bet opposite horses to win using a dutch bet.

[Jeff P]

Do you have a link to these head to head matchups? Do they have past results listed?

No, there is no active link. Unfortunately, Pinnacle takes each matchup off of their site as soon as the race before it becomes official.


Better still, dutch them both to win. Will Pinnacle let you bet both horses?

Yes. They do let you bet both horses- both in the matchup itself and at full track odds in the race itself.

When you place a bet in the matchup, you get whatever money line is in place at the time of your wager. If the line moves after that, you can bet again at whatever the new line happens to be. Theoretically, if the line moves enough, you could take both sides and still have a guaranteed profit.

[horsemaven]

I was getting ready to post about something else on this board when I noticed this discussion. I've been betting horse matchups regularly for a few years. Matchups aren't really that profitable...I went 79-41 (65.8 percent) in 2003 for a measly $10,000. That was before Pinnacle even started offering them. The limits then were $500 at WSEX. Carib stopped offering them late last year. I suspect that it's for the same reason why sportsbooks in Las Vegas don't offer them anymore except the Triple Crown races.The "sharpies" are killing em.

horsemaven

[vespa7]

it will be intersting to see how long they persist with the matchups with such low vig. as i stated before it could be a loss leader for them. they seem to be swallowing up a ton of the on-line turnover in all areas.

[young horseplayer]

azeri is -110 vs. sightseek +100 right now at pinnacle. I feel like this is a steal for sure. Line should climb to sightseek +170, or at least that's what i think a fair line should be, so jump on it. Some of azeri's figs aren't spectacular, but she has won 15 out of 19 and those wins where she recorded low 100's, she wasn't ridden very hard at all. 3 back she got a 112, 2 back a 99 but at 7 f., way too short for her liking, and in the met she faced much tougher than today and recorded the best pace figure of her life, which took her out of it.

good luck

[vespa7]

i dont know what happened here at all you can check my time of reply, but i would downgrade any Lucas runner.

[Jeff P]

it will be intersting to see how long they persist with the matchups with such low vig. as i stated before it could be a loss leader for them. they seem to be swallowing up a ton of the on-line turnover in all areas.

I see that their horse matchup money lines do change periodically. Do you think that Pinnancle is coming anywhere close to getting the same amount of action on both sides? Or do you think they are taking it in the shorts?

[GR1@HTR]

I've made it a daily part of my wagering...But only wagering on underdogs.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally posted by vespa7
i dont know what happened here at all you can check my time of reply, but i would downgrade any Lucas runner.

It's Lukas, not Lucas.

[penguinfan]

Originally posted by PaceAdvantage
It's Lukas, not Lucas.

WHEW, I was worried they canned the next Star Wars movie!

Penguinfan

[PaceAdvantage]

It always irritates me when people mispell his name....sorry.....

I once read an online article by David Scott, who used to write for the DRF. It was about Lukas, only the whole article, he spelled the guy's name with a 'c'. And Scott was a nationally known racing writer who wrote for years in the DRF!!! LOL

Needless to say, I shot him off an e-mail pointing out his embarrassing mistake.

[cj]

As far as the Azeri bet goes, whenever it seems too easy in gambling, bet the other side.