Moneyball

[chickenhead]

OK, don't hammer me, I know it's not about horseracing.

But, it is about handicapping, theory of handicapping using statistical data, and finding value. If anyone is not familiar with it, it was written in 2003 I think, about the Oakland A's baseball team, specifically the way their GM had turned to using statistical analysis of data to try and pinpoint A.) how a baseball offense can be made to work most efficiently, and B.) how to "handicap" players in the draft to find players who can play within that offense, at a value price.

I was surprised at how exactly it describes the same process everyone here goes through, and it provides some valuable insight on that process.

I'm only about 100 pages into it, I'd be interested to hear if anyone here has read it.

[kenwoodallpromos]

First I heard but I will buy it due to by baseball interest and likely determining value from very abstract information. Sounds very interesting.
The anayzing on an individual basis, then relating to a group setting, then for value sounds a lot like racing.

[chickenhead]

A lot of the most interesting stuff I've read in it so far comes from talking about Bill James, and his Baseball Abstracts. He essentially threw conventional wisdom out completely back in the 70's, and set about trying to figure out how things actually work.

He couldn't get the data he decided was most important to measure utility and usefullness, and to make projections, which in turn spurred a bunch of his readers into forming an ad hoc company that began taking much more in-depth stats at all games. They tried to sell this information back to MLB, thinking, of course they must realize how valuable this stuff is, wrong, MLB was not at all interested, they thought they new everything already. But they carried on, ultimately the company was sold to Fox News in the late 1990's for $45 million.

[bettheoverlay]

Is Bill James still the behind the scenes statistical guru for the Red Sox?

[chickenhead]

don't know, I don't follow the Sox much, but I have heard Epstein is a big numbers guy, so it wouldn't surprise me.

[Dick Schmidt]

CH,

Seems to be the wave of the future. The Dodgers just hired the assistant GM from Oakland to be their new GM. He is quoted as saying that 90% of all baseball players are easily replaceable. All the emphasis on numbers and production appears to me to be a reaction to the huge salaries demanded by even mediocre players.


Dick

Some days you're the dog, and some days you're the hydrant