Fantasy football scandal

[magwell]

That didn't take long, shades of "pick six scandal" of years ago .......;)

[Inner Dirt]

That didn't take long, shades of "pick six scandal" of years ago .......;)

Link? Some of us are burdened with satellite internet where Googling doesn't
work as thoroughly as for others.

[ebcorde]

Computers. these guys are running queries, to find the big payouts. I hope it gets shut down and people in congress allow Betting as they have in the UK. This is dirtier than the fixing games.

[Hank]

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/06/sports/fanduel-draftkings-fantasy-employees-bet-rivals.html

[highnote]

I opened up an account at Fanduel and played several daily contests and then requested a payout of my balance and never bet again.

I recognized immediately that insiders had a huge unfair advantage.

Still, expert bettors with knowledge of all the players in the sport should still be able to win.

I think that if you have a big bankroll and expert knowledge that utilizes some sort of database to build a prediction model you could win.

The little guy is going to have a harder time competing in daily fantasy contests than he would have in horse racing. The big guys can buy hundreds or thousands of fantasy tickets which would force the guy who plays one ticket to the bottom of the heap.

In horse racing the little guy who bets $2 to win has the same probability of winning a race as the buy who bets $2,000 to win.

In fantasy, the guy who buys a $1 ticket in a fantasy game is at a huge disadvantage of a guy who buys 2,000 different ticket combinations.

In horse racing, the little guy doesn't have to buy a pick-6 ticket. In daily fantasy there is only one type of bet.

[Robert Fischer]

I honestly haven't looked into these offerings.

I'm the kind of sports geek that could practically be a coach or a gm, but these things haven't really been appealing to me in terms of a gambling opportunity.

From my limited perspective, I see fantasy sports as a good way to network with a group of guys that you maybe share business interests with. Kinda like I would see golf. Any wins or points would be secondary to building that social connection.

From skimming stuff about the scandal, it seems that inside info has been abused here.

[ebcorde]

I opened up an account at Fanduel and played several daily contests and then requested a payout of my balance and never bet again.

I recognized immediately that insiders had a huge unfair advantage.

Still, expert bettors with knowledge of all the players in the sport should still be able to win.

I think that if you have a big bankroll and expert knowledge that utilizes some sort of database to build a prediction model you could win.

The little guy is going to have a harder time competing in daily fantasy contests than he would have in horse racing. The big guys can buy hundreds or thousands of fantasy tickets which would force the guy who plays one ticket to the bottom of the heap.

In horse racing the little guy who bets $2 to win has the same probability of winning a race as the buy who bets $2,000 to win.

In fantasy, the guy who buys a $1 ticket in a fantasy game is at a huge disadvantage of a guy who buys 2,000 different ticket combinations.

In horse racing, the little guy doesn't have to buy a pick-6 ticket. In daily fantasy there is only one type of bet.


fanduel = fraudduel

[Inner Dirt]

fanduel = fraudduel

Not sure what the big advantage is. It says they knew what players were being bet the most, something the public doesn't know. I am guessing they
figured they were blindly following inside information by following the money?
I know nothing about fantasy sports, but I would assume if you knew a teams
game plan you would be at a big advantage.

If available I would think fantasy College football would be ripe for an insider to play. Their are a lot of unpaid and low paid people who are privy to the game plan and what players are not 100% healthy. As far as the pros I could
see lower paid insiders playing or selling information to a syndicate.

[lamboguy]

all you have to know about Fantasy Football is that Bill Walters made $20 million last year on it. that's enough to stay away from it.

i rather bet against the gate punchers in horse racing. eventually there won't be any of that in this game either from what i am hearing.

[_______]

fanduel = fraudduel

I don't know about this. You left DraftKings = GraftKings just sitting there wondering how it got left behind. I know it's an entirely different kind of corruption than what is alleged but it rhymes.

I'm not feeling like FraudDuel is going to catch on as a hashtag.

[Secondbest]

If the employees have knowledge on who's Being played etc. Then They have access to the computer system.How do we know if They aren't past posting the Game.

[GameTheory]

The little guy is going to have a harder time competing in daily fantasy contests than he would have in horse racing. The big guys can buy hundreds or thousands of fantasy tickets which would force the guy who plays one ticket to the bottom of the heap.If you're trying to win one of the huge longer-term million dollar things, that may apply (I don't know), but for the daily stuff not really. You can't have multiple entries in the smaller contests (in terms of number of entrants), and it would mainly hurt you if you did.

In horse racing, the little guy doesn't have to buy a pick-6 ticket. In daily fantasy there is only one type of bet.Not really true. You can enter head-to-head contests -- you and one other guy, one lineup each. And it is fairly easy to find out who the good players are, you just avoid them. I've found these pretty soft. I'm talking the $1-$10 level -- you can enter hundreds without duplicating opponents. Also 50/50s, there are plenty with only 10-50 entrants -- you just have to be in the top half and you can only enter once. If you want to see how you are measuring up, enter of the $5 double-ups with a gazillion entries (that pay the top 30K entries or so) -- your placement in those will tell you how you are picking in relation to the general public. If your lineup is any better than average you're almost sure to win in those with so many entrants. In the small contests with only a few entrants, the variance is greater but the competition is arguably softer.

For a small-timer who isn't trying to win pick6-like money, it is WAY easier than horse racing for no other reason than the takeout is at least 10% less (and more like 15% most of the time). The 50/50s and H2Hs are pretty much like straight sports betting -- you need to win a little over 50% to break even and even if you suck you'll still be winning at least in the high 40s as a random lineup that used up your allotted salary would get you that. So there aren't long losing streaks and the high variance of horse racing.

If you want to be a whale, you have to do things differently as whales do, but if your goal is to win something in the hundreds up to a few thousand a week, that is looking very very doable, especially if you are using multiple sites. (At least for NFL regular season.)

[GameTheory]

If the employees have knowledge on who's Being played etc. Then They have access to the computer system.How do we know if They aren't past posting the Game.
As I posted in the other thread, because the lineup becomes publicly visible the moment the game starts so it would be easy to see if it changed. It WOULD be an advantage to know what people are choosing before it becomes visible, so that's a problem, but past-posting would be noticed immediately...

[magwell]

GT:Thank you for that explanation of how this is played, that was perfect.....:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[Secondbest]

[QUOTE=GameTheory]As I posted in the other thread, because the lineup becomes publicly visible the moment the game starts so it would be easy to see if it changed. It WOULD be an advantage to know what people are choosing before it becomes visible, so that's a problem, but past-posting would be noticed immediately...[/QUOTE
I don' t understand. If the big games have thousands of entrants why Can't You past post both the lineups and games.If its a long list How would You know?

[VeryOldMan]

Not sure what the big advantage is. It says they knew what players were being bet the most, something the public doesn't know. I am guessing they
figured they were blindly following inside information by following the money?
I know nothing about fantasy sports, but I would assume if you knew a teams
game plan you would be at a big advantage.

I don't play these sites but have read about the industry. Found it bizarre that online poker got nuked in the US but these exist, but learned there actually was a fantasy sports exemption written into the same law that nuked online poker - good grief.

The "inside information" involves knowing which players are effectively underplayed (i.e., overlays), allowing you to construct rosters (on the rival site) that have a disproportionate chance of being the big winner versus opponents lacking the "polling data" you possess.

[GameTheory]

[QUOTE=GameTheory]As I posted in the other thread, because the lineup becomes publicly visible the moment the game starts so it would be easy to see if it changed. It WOULD be an advantage to know what people are choosing before it becomes visible, so that's a problem, but past-posting would be noticed immediately...[/QUOTE
I don' t understand. If the big games have thousands of entrants why Can't You past post both the lineups and games.If its a long list How would You know?

There is one type of past-posting that could occur by an employee with access that wouldn't be seen by the public (we are assuming internal protocols are lax here, and in-fact the software would have to be specifically designed to allow late changes which would be contrary to even the most lax standards and probably easily traceable to a specific coder). And that would be changing your lineup for games that have not yet started but are after the "locked" time for lineups (which is when the first game starts of the group of games that you are picking from).

So if it Sunday 1pm, then all the games that start at that time -- those players will be visible and the opponents will either see your players for those games or they will see empty slots. The empty slots are for games starting later on Sunday or the Monday night game. And you're not allowed to change anything after 1pm the first game starting.

So if our evil insider were to decide to change some of his picks for the later games after 1pm but before those games had started, we'd never know about it. Of course, he'd have to change them to other players in those same unstarted games or we'd see visible slots changing or becoming invisible.

But past posting for a game that already started wouldn't work. For one thing, it isn't like horse racing where waiting 10 seconds could get you an advantage. Presumably he'd have to wait until at least a quarter was played to switch to a player he thinks is going to perform better. That means his lineup would be available to be seen by anyone for 15-30 minutes before it changed, and it would be caught. (I guarantee SOMEONE is downloading all those entries as they come up -- it would just be obvious.) And keep in mind all this would have to occur within the salary cap limitations, so his choice of other players to switch to is still limited within only a few choices.

So...past-posting after a game has begun seems impossible to me, and even before they've begun but after the lockdown seems highly unlikely. Especially when they've got this much easier way to gain an extra advantage as detailed in the story -- simply to use data which only they have to make better lineups, and make them on-time to use at other sites where less likely to create suspicion. (And yet here we have an article about it.)

It actually must kind of suck for these employees. These companies are new(ish) and were built by fantasy players, and slowly but surely they will be told they can't play any more fantasy so as to avoid conflict of interest....

[magwell]

The "inside information" involves knowing which players are effectively underplayed (i.e., overlays), allowing you to construct rosters (on the rival site) that have a disproportionate chance of being the big winner versus opponents lacking the "polling data" you possess.This is what happens that's the rub, you have it right big advantage........:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[whodoyoulike]

I don't play these sites but have read about the industry. Found it bizarre that online poker got nuked in the US but these exist, but learned there actually was a fantasy sports exemption written into the same law that nuked online poker - good grief.

The "inside information" involves knowing which players are effectively underplayed (i.e., overlays), allowing you to construct rosters (on the rival site) that have a disproportionate chance of being the big winner versus opponents lacking the "polling data" you possess.


Someone (media?) should find out who wrote or helped write the "same law that nuked poker". These two guys do have a lot of money, just saying.

... Jerry Jones of the Dallas Cowboys and Robert K. Kraft of the New England Patriots have stakes in DraftKings, which recently struck a three-year deal with the N.F.L. to become a partner of the league’s International Series in Britain, where sports betting is legal. In addition, DraftKings has tapped hundreds of millions of dollars from Fox Sports, and FanDuel has raised similar amounts from investors like Comcast, NBC and KKR ...

But then again ...

... A spokeswoman for DraftKings said that Mr. Haskell simply made a mistake and that the company was certain he did not use the information improperly. She declined to go into specifics about the safeguards or the company’s auditing policies. ...

[Secondbest]

Game
thanks

[_______]

Someone (media?) should find out who wrote or helped write the "same law that nuked poker". These two guys do have a lot of money, just saying.



But then again ...

UIGEA has a very interesting history as a piece of legislation that was essentially sneaked through Congress without debate in 2006. But it seems far more likely that the fantasy sports carve out has been exploited by smart entrepreneurs rather than existing as a result of some deep conspiracy.

Yahoo and others wanted to offer season long contests for a fee with a prize. The carve out was for that. FanDuel and later DraftKings saw there was more money to be made in daily contests.

Yahoo (and others) are now offering the daily contests but the top 2 control over 95% of the money wagered in fantasy so it appears they were outmanuevered by the smaller nimbler competitors.

If the hole was intended to allow this, I think you would have seen companies moving into the arena immediately. The fact that we are 9 years post-legislation and it is finally getting some big money behind it tells me it's the law of unintended consequences at work, not a conspiracy.

[VeryOldMan]

UIGEA has a very interesting history as a piece of legislation that was essentially sneaked through Congress without debate in 2006. But it seems far more likely that the fantasy sports carve out has been exploited by smart entrepreneurs rather than existing as a result of some deep conspiracy.

Yahoo and others wanted to offer season long contests for a fee with a prize. The carve out was for that. FanDuel and later DraftKings saw there was more money to be made in daily contests.

Yahoo (and others) are now offering the daily contests but the top 2 control over 95% of the money wagered in fantasy so it appears they were outmanuevered by the smaller nimbler competitors.

If the hole was intended to allow this, I think you would have seen companies moving into the arena immediately. The fact that we are 9 years post-legislation and it is finally getting some big money behind it tells me it's the law of unintended consequences at work, not a conspiracy.
This right here. Fantasy sports was an office pool (ish) venture back in 2006. Exemption was likely meant to deal with that. Canny entrepreneurs have exploited the carve out.

[whodoyoulike]

I guess I'm coming off that there was or is a conspiracy going on but, I've seen too many times where people with money try to stir or influence fate's outcome because they have the money. I was just suggesting that someone should follow the money to find out why this exemption was allowed.

[Track Phantom]

I've played on Fan Duel (primarily) and DraftKings (a bit). I always focus on the smaller groups (normally 1 to 10 players). My basic play is $109 entry fee with 5 total players (including me) and the winner takes all = $500. It's easy to follow and requires a lot less random luck. I've won many times and think there is nothing fishy going on.

However, it is not hard to understand what is happening with this issue. I don't feel it is "illegal" but certainly "advantageous". Here is what is happening, in my opinion:

Focusing on the contests that pay hundreds of thousands or a million dollars, and draw thousands of participants, DraftKings "staff" were identifying percentage of "owned" players and (likely through a computer program) were finding anomalies.

For example, they might see a starting pitcher like Clayton Kershaw owned by 70% of players. That means another excellent starting pitcher like Matt Harvey (owned by 15%) can be chosen and, if Kershaw has an off-night and Harvey pitches, as expected, with little effort, you've narrowed the pool from say 100,000 players to 15,000 players left with a chance. The more of these under-owned players stacked on a team, the easier it can be to be involved with a dramatically smaller pool-size with a chance.

The DraftKings staff can't play on their own site, so they use the FanDuel site to play, but leverage the DraftKings site for predictability. The idea being in the large pools, both sites are probably very similar in players owned statistics.

The bottom line: It is easier to win these contests when you're selecting players that are owned at a lessor degree by your competitors (assuming there isn't much drop off, if any, on their chance of succeeding on that day). DraftKings (and likely Fan Duel) staff are taking advantage of knowledge not open to the public to increase their chance of winning (and it appears to be succeeding based on them winning 6M so far).

[whodoyoulike]

I've played on Fan Duel (primarily) and DraftKings (a bit). I always focus on the smaller groups (normally 1 to 10 players). My basic play is $109 entry fee with 5 total players (including me) and the winner takes all = $500. It's easy to follow and requires a lot less random luck. I've won many times and think there is nothing fishy going on.

However, it is not hard to understand what is happening with this issue. I don't feel it is "illegal" but certainly "advantageous". Here is what is happening, in my opinion: ...

The bottom line: It is easier to win these contests when you're selecting players that are owned at a lessor degree by your competitors (assuming there isn't much drop off, if any, on their chance of succeeding on that day). DraftKings (and likely Fan Duel) staff are taking advantage of knowledge not open to the public to increase their chance of winning (and it appears to be succeeding based on them winning 6M so far).


And, you don't think or see that having this advantage over the other players is illegal? I think it's highly unethical as presented. Probably to be above board they should identify these individual(s) and their selections and have the other players decide for themselves whether they want to compete under these situations.

[Track Phantom]

And, you don't think or see that having this advantage over the other players is illegal? I think it's highly unethical as presented. Probably to be above board they should identify these individual(s) and their selections and have the other players decide for themselves whether they want to compete under these situations.

I agree unethical and advantageous. Not illegal.

[Robert Goren]

I find it pretty interesting that a forum on horse racing is debating how players can cheat at daily fantasy sports, when horse racing is the king of inside information, cheating with drugs, and every possible betting scheme including past posting. I personally feel that I am more likely to a fair shake from Fan Duel than I am likely to get on any race at any US based track. There have been posters here who have actually posted that they handicap the cheaters as part of their handicapping process.

[Poindexter]

I've played on Fan Duel (primarily) and DraftKings (a bit). I always focus on the smaller groups (normally 1 to 10 players). My basic play is $109 entry fee with 5 total players (including me) and the winner takes all = $500. It's easy to follow and requires a lot less random luck. I've won many times and think there is nothing fishy going on.

However, it is not hard to understand what is happening with this issue. I don't feel it is "illegal" but certainly "advantageous". Here is what is happening, in my opinion:

Focusing on the contests that pay hundreds of thousands or a million dollars, and draw thousands of participants, DraftKings "staff" were identifying percentage of "owned" players and (likely through a computer program) were finding anomalies.

For example, they might see a starting pitcher like Clayton Kershaw owned by 70% of players. That means another excellent starting pitcher like Matt Harvey (owned by 15%) can be chosen and, if Kershaw has an off-night and Harvey pitches, as expected, with little effort, you've narrowed the pool from say 100,000 players to 15,000 players left with a chance. The more of these under-owned players stacked on a team, the easier it can be to be involved with a dramatically smaller pool-size with a chance.

The DraftKings staff can't play on their own site, so they use the FanDuel site to play, but leverage the DraftKings site for predictability. The idea being in the large pools, both sites are probably very similar in players owned statistics.

The bottom line: It is easier to win these contests when you're selecting players that are owned at a lessor degree by your competitors (assuming there isn't much drop off, if any, on their chance of succeeding on that day). DraftKings (and likely Fan Duel) staff are taking advantage of knowledge not open to the public to increase their chance of winning (and it appears to be succeeding based on them winning 6M so far).


I know zilch about fantasy, but it seems to me the sites should just publish this info in real time(sort of like a tote board). That way everybody has access to it and it adds another variable to the equation. Is there a reason this cannot be done.

[GameTheory]

I know zilch about fantasy, but it seems to me the sites should just publish this info in real time(sort of like a tote board). That way everybody has access to it and it adds another variable to the equation. Is there a reason this cannot be done.
Well, you can edit your lineup until the very last second (even after you've entered the contests where you are going to use it), so it wouldn't mean much and that's what everybody would do (change them at the last second, or change them in response to what others are doing). So the ultimate benefit of that would go to the sophisticated and computerized players, as usual. Preferable it be kept secret, and just not abused by the insiders....

[Poindexter]

Well, you can edit your lineup until the very last second (even after you've entered the contests where you are going to use it), so it wouldn't mean much and that's what everybody would do (change them at the last second, or change them in response to what others are doing). So the ultimate benefit of that would go to the sophisticated and computerized players, as usual. Preferable it be kept secret, and just not abused by the insiders....

Can we really trust that this info will really be kept secret (can it be hacked, leaked....)? Just publicize the info and why worry about it. IMO, the info is far less valuable when public. Why would they even want to risk more scandal or perception of scandal?

[GameTheory]

Can we really trust that this info will really be kept secret (can it be hacked, leaked....)? Just publicize the info and why worry about it. IMO, the info is far less valuable when public. Why would they even want to risk more scandal or perception of scandal?
Hey look, there isn't a gambling market on earth (or investment market, or any market) that doesn't have some level of corruption. If it isn't one thing, it is another. As a bettor, I'd rather the information not be available as it will tend to homogenize the market. In any case, I don't expect that these sites will continue in present form indefinitely -- they'll either be made illegal or will be burdened with a bunch of new regulations and probably taxes. Even with whatever shenanigans and despite the general negative attitude I'm hearing (which surprises me), this looks to be right now a pretty good opportunity to make some cash before those changes come....

[Poindexter]

One other point on the subject, if a limited number of players are winning all the money, and you work for these sites, you have access to the players they are keying and basically can just steal the picks of the sharps/whales and bet it with the other site or pass the info on to friends to bet for you? no?

[GameTheory]

One other point on the subject, if a limited number of players are winning all the money, and you work for these sites, you have access to the players they are keying and basically can just steal the picks of the sharps/whales and bet it with the other site or pass the info on to friends to bet for you? no?
Yes, that's right. I don't think a limited number of people are "winning all the money" but certainly some people do consistently well. And that's true of every internet betting site of whatever sport. Certainly I've heard people complaining on this forum that so-and-so ADW (or off-shore book even more especially) is stealing their picks. And I'm sure it happens....