Positive class drops

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

A lot has been written about class drops i.e negative class drops etc. But is there any wagering value with a positive class drop. MSW to Maiden claiming also the drop to NW2L are the obvious and Pandy has written an excellent book about the profitability of these two drops.

What about the more subtle drops that occur between state breads, sex, age etc. And I would think the drop does not have to be a last race drop as it could be within the last two or three races.

What I am trying to bring forth is there any edges including value when considering the positive class drop as a primary factor in selecting.?

[thaskalos]

The class drops are overbet...IMO. When I am seeking "value"...I look to bet AGAINST some of these drop-down horses.

And I don't think that the "negative class-drop" theory applies any longer.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

That's the consensus of speaking with my local buddies. However, maybe in certain types of races these drop downs can be ignored? Claiming drops are obvious to the public as is the drop from stakes to allowance and I am sure there are others.

[Stillriledup]

A lot of times a horse who really belongs in a maiden claimer will get one spin so the owners can see what he could do while not being risked to be claimed. So, a 'dropdown' like this often gets 'credit' for being in the higher class when in reality, he probably shouldn't. No need to give a horse and his connections credit for over classifying in the first place.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

When I see a horse that raced in a much higher company ex, grade 1 and was bet 6/1 or less in that race I feel that a drop into lesser company is a plus as the horse was live in the higher classed race. The key is to get the value price today which is all that matters.

[whodoyoulike]

That's the consensus of speaking with my local buddies. However, maybe in certain types of races these drop downs can be ignored? Claiming drops are obvious to the public as is the drop from stakes to allowance and I am sure there are others.

You have to understand and realize what the horse's real class is before you can state he is dropping. Now, Bayern entering a $100k alw or low level stkes race may no longer be considered a class drop.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

You have to understand and realize what the horse's real class is before you can state he is dropping. Now, Bayern entering a $100k alw or low level stkes race may no longer be considered a class drop.

Makes sense. It appears that judging the class drops can be difficult and subjective at times.

[classhandicapper]

The class drops I am most interested in are the ones that people do not understand well. There are so many different classifications and sub classifications between claiming, allowance, statebreds, limited winner claiming, starter allowance, etc.. that it's tough for the average person to know whether a horses is dropping or rising when they switch categories on their own circuit. It's twice as hard when they switch circuits. So everyone takes the shortcut and looks at the speed figures. That gives you a chance to make plays on hidden drop downs or against hidden rises because the figures are so over bet.

Another possibility is gaps. People may know that a horse is rising or falling in class, but some moves are a lot larger than others. If you know the tough moves you can play against horses being bet off figures earned against much weaker.

Finally, there are classes within classes. The class label of two races can be identical, but there could be a significant difference in quality that you can see by looking at who was actually in the race.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

The class drops I am most interested in are the ones that people do not understand well. There are so many different classifications and sub classifications between claiming, allowance, statebreds, limited winner claiming, starter allowance, etc.. that it's tough for the average person to know whether a horses is dropping or rising when they switch categories on their own circuit. It's twice as hard when they switch circuits. So everyone takes the shortcut and looks at the speed figures. That gives you a chance to make plays on hidden drop downs or against hidden rises because the figures are so over bet.

Another possibility is gaps. People may know that a horse is rising or falling in class, but some moves are a lot larger than others. If you know the tough moves you can play against horses being bet off figures earned against much weaker.

Finally, there are classes within classes. The class label of two races can be identical, but there could be a significant difference in quality that you can see by looking at who was actually in the race.

Very interesting points Class! So in your opinion there is an edge apparent if you do the work to know the various race conditions that exist especially in the lower rung tracks with the beaten claiming races and such.

[Cratos]

The class drops I am most interested in are the ones that people do not understand well. There are so many different classifications and sub classifications between claiming, allowance, statebreds, limited winner claiming, starter allowance, etc.. that it's tough for the average person to know whether a horses is dropping or rising when they switch categories on their own circuit. It's twice as hard when they switch circuits. So everyone takes the shortcut and looks at the speed figures. That gives you a chance to make plays on hidden drop downs or against hidden rises because the figures are so over bet.

Another possibility is gaps. People may know that a horse is rising or falling in class, but some moves are a lot larger than others. If you know the tough moves you can play against horses being bet off figures earned against much weaker.

Finally, there are classes within classes. The class label of two races can be identical, but there could be a significant difference in quality that you can see by looking at who was actually in the race.
A very good post with much to consider when deciding the "class" of a horse.

[Robert Fischer]

Class Drops that I like - I've seen the horse do some good things and today the horse is in an easier spot.

Class Drops that I do not like - We are guessing that because today's race is in this easier spot, that the horse will be able to do something for the first time.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Class Drops that I like - I've seen the horse do some good things and today the horse is in an easier spot.

Class Drops that I do not like - We are guessing that because today's race is in this easier spot, that the horse will be able to do something for the first time.

I like that quote about a horse doing some good things and today is in an easier spot. This is an edge that can be taken advantage of as a starting point for good wager.

[flatstats]

No one has mentioned the trainer. I don't know about the US but here in GB this is a tactic that is successful with some trainers.

We do have a handicapping regime, which tends to penalise improving horses but we also have a situation where trainers can drop horses out of handicaps into claiming stakes races. There are a handful of trainers that are positive when doing this and the masses don't overbet them.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike
You have to understand and realize what the horse's real class is before you can state he is dropping. Now, Bayern entering a $100k alw or low level stkes race may no longer be considered a class drop.

Of course it would be a class drop - a much needed one. He would be running against lesser horses than Gr1 horses.

[upthecreek]

I like to look for horses that are taking a condition class drop but appear to the public a rise in class(ie) A horse was competing in "open" $5000 & now enter in $7500 N2L The public sees the higher claiming price and thinks the horse is going up in class but its actually an easier spot

[classhandicapper]

Very interesting points Class! So in your opinion there is an edge apparent if you do the work to know the various race conditions that exist especially in the lower rung tracks with the beaten claiming races and such.

Here's the idea.

The two most popular ways to tell how well horses have been running are:

1. Looking at the clock
2. Looking at who beat who (class)

Both have advantages and disadvantages, but the dominant way to do it these days is the clock.

As a handicapper, the idea is to figure out the weaknesses of the other players and try to find value there.

Within class, people have some trouble with some of the stuff I mentioned. So they either make mistakes or they use the clock. If you are good at one of those things, that leaves you with less competition within class category (which is good) and also allows you to try to exploit some of the problems with figures.

You don't have to be good at everything. That's a lot of work! Just pick one thing, get very good at it, and focus your bets there.

Clock handicappers should do the same thing. There are races that are a real struggle for class handicappers where there are very few good solutions to the problems. That might be a place for speed handicappers to focus or make their own figures.