PDA

View Full Version : Would you buy Pace Software of Hong Kong & others?


Mr.XXX
10-01-2015, 01:12 AM
Sartin-type numbers for Hong Kong and any others possible?

Yes/No and:

How much would you fork over?

Mr.XXX
10-01-2015, 01:17 AM
Yes. $200, and double that for database query capability.

Dave Schwartz
10-01-2015, 02:05 AM
Mr. XXX,

Respectfully, you'd have to add a couple of zeroes on the end and pay up front in order to get me interested.


Dave

betovernetcapper
10-01-2015, 02:09 AM
To my knowledge, there is no data base that details the exact running times and positions at various points of call. I'm not saying these races can't be handicapped, but not in the same way that US races are. A 15lb difference in weights is not uncommon and with large fields post positions are frequently critical. Also the class structure is someone different. It's a different ball game.

woodbinepmi
10-01-2015, 02:15 AM
You could use Trakus charts to make the points of calls

ebcorde
10-01-2015, 11:29 AM
I voted no because the HJC pace figures are garbage (maybe on purpose) and they don't have sectionals pace figs, which blows my mind because it's all late charging stuff there. All one should need to know is.

1. where does the horse normally fit at the turn from home (rank in the pack/ with respect to class)
2. Late pace fig


In addition:
Also their class ratings are useless. Class 2 -3, 3-4. there's no difference. Kinda like the Dog ratings below AA.
I have to manual average class with respect to the highest class attained to achieve point #1.

cbp
10-01-2015, 12:11 PM
You could use Trakus charts to make the points of calls
There's Trakus for Hkg?

woodbinepmi
10-01-2015, 01:07 PM
There's Trakus for Hkg?
You can get them off of the Trakus website, you do have to get an account with them to access them.

cbp
10-01-2015, 01:45 PM
You can get them off of the Trakus website, you do have to get an account with them to access them.
Can you get an account if not employees in the industry?

Mr.XXX
10-01-2015, 04:23 PM
Mr. XXX,

Respectfully, you'd have to add a couple of zeroes on the end and pay up front in order to get me interested.


Dave

I know, like in Dirty Dancing,"You're out of my league".

I was hoping 100 Pace readers would want this.

And to everyone else, thank you for your on point replies.

woodbinepmi
10-01-2015, 04:33 PM
Can you get an account if not employees in the industry?
Call them and ask them nicely, I don't see why they wouldn't. The product is for the public to use.

Nitro
10-01-2015, 09:57 PM
I wouldn't waste my time or money on any handicapping methodology for the racing at Hong Kong. When you finally come to the realization that you're an outsider playing an insider's game you'll understand why handicapping is futile. There are much better ways to make this game fun and profitable! ;)

Mr.XXX
10-01-2015, 10:19 PM
I wouldn't waste my time or money on any handicapping methodology for the racing at Hong Kong. When you finally come to the realization that you're an outsider playing an insider's game you'll understand why handicapping is futile. There are much better ways to make this game fun and profitable! ;)
I was waiting for you to chime in.
Are you then referring to something along the lines of Kinky Handicapping?

Nitro
10-01-2015, 10:55 PM
I was waiting for you to chime in.
Are you then referring to something along the lines of Kinky Handicapping?

I’m not sure if you’ve noticed, but other then the Selection forum I’ve purposely been avoiding all of the other forums for many reasons. I’ve found that other then a few laughs here and there, the commentary is really just geared for those who are caught up in run of mill handicapping. I just find it too distracting.

I’m not sure what you mean by “Kinky Handicapping”. My personal method of following the money (and I mean BIG money at HK!) might be considered a bit kinky by a typical handicapper, but there’s no handicapping involved. It takes me all of 10 minutes to assimilate the best selections in each race and another minute or so to play them the way I want.

Mr.XXX
10-02-2015, 03:38 AM
I’m not sure if you’ve noticed, but other then the Selection forum I’ve purposely been avoiding all of the other forums for many reasons. I’ve found that other then a few laughs here and there, the commentary is really just geared for those who are caught up in run of mill handicapping. I just find it too distracting.

I’m not sure what you mean by “Kinky Handicapping”. My personal method of following the money (and I mean BIG money at HK!) might be considered a bit kinky by a typical handicapper, but there’s no handicapping involved. It takes me all of 10 minutes to assimilate the best selections in each race and another minute or so to play them the way I want.
I hear you, folks grow older but not...
I was thinking the trainer coups of Mark Cramer.
I infer then you mean the Tote, follow the money?
Bless your ten minutes or less, I'm a coalminer by comparison.

Tom
10-02-2015, 12:54 PM
Mr. XXX,

Respectfully, you'd have to add a couple of zeroes on the end and pay up front in order to get me interested.


Dave

And you'd have to take one of them off to interest me!

Pensacola Pete
10-03-2015, 09:11 PM
I've found pace to be virtually useless for Hong Kong and Australian racing. Others may have a different result.

ebcorde
10-04-2015, 01:11 PM
I've found pace to be virtually useless for Hong Kong and Australian racing. Others may have a different result.
:) Australian and sometimes New Zealand, South Africa I find class , how that Horse performs at the highest class level and plain ole-fashioned time work the best.

Hong Kong - look at times and find the slowest-rated horse with a decent time that the experts bettors hate :D i'm kidding, I have no clue how to be good at HKJC.

Class at Hong Kong I can't see (Class 2,3 or 4,5) seems like almost everybody is class 4/5, running for the same money????? How can that be? I have to look at times. AND THEY HAVE NO LATE PACE FIGURES, how can that be? for it seems to me , it's closers 24/7 THERE.

Example Class 3/4/5 , so they have 900 horses $15,000 claimers running all season and they take turns winning, is that it?

Australia at least they tell me , how much they're running for (which I think is important) so common sens tells me "oh this guy run at 6k and finished 4th ,5th most of the time) and this guy runs at 6k 2nd places 2nd, 3rd. so I'll play him.

GameTheory
10-04-2015, 03:32 PM
HK has sectional times since 2008. You'd have to make your own figures out of the raw data, although there is at least one site that has some kind of speed figures (can't remember if they have pace figures). I just recently made a database of all the HK data going back forever, although I haven't done anything with it yet...

ebcorde
10-04-2015, 05:59 PM
HK has sectional times since 2008. You'd have to make your own figures out of the raw data, although there is at least one site that has some kind of speed figures (can't remember if they have pace figures). I just recently made a database of all the HK data going back forever, although I haven't done anything with it yet...

sectional times? They do a great job of hiding it. The Equibase form does not have sectional times. Strange with the huge money bet there, I find it disturbing pace figs are not standard in the HJKC form.

ebcorde
10-04-2015, 06:13 PM
HK has sectional times since 2008. You'd have to make your own figures out of the raw data, although there is at least one site that has some kind of speed figures (can't remember if they have pace figures). I just recently made a database of all the HK data going back forever, although I haven't done anything with it yet...

dude if you can develop an accurate closing Pace fig you should do great there.


IMHO late pace should give one a better chance there. The Asian tracks (except the anglophile) countries are too hard. Funny thing is this year I bet japan for the first time and hit for over $300. my first bet there. That's one Place where I know I'm Plus ROI, only bet it once since. Like I can hit a 25 horse field in Japan. It was a shipper from HK with Purton riding back in Feb. I got the exact using free Racingpost RPR for the 2nd place Horse. Other than that I stay away, interesting to watch. Japan cracks me up, with the gladiator music. da-dada da da dah. da dada da da dah

I really like Australia/New Zealand. I don't like England, Chalk city there. Jumpers? Please give me a statistics falling over the jump, else forget about it. France I would love to bet , they don't let us.

GameTheory
10-05-2015, 01:57 AM
sectional times? They do a great job of hiding it. The Equibase form does not have sectional times. Strange with the huge money bet there, I find it disturbing pace figs are not standard in the HJKC form.

I have only looked at HK home site. Here are most recent results:

http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/info/meeting/Results/english/

Click "sectional time & position" button top right under the date choose box...

RacingHK also has speed and pace figs (supposedly, I haven't looked at them closely):

http://racinghk.com/

ebcorde
10-05-2015, 07:03 AM
I have only looked at HK home site. Here are most recent results:

http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/info/meeting/Results/english/

Click "sectional time & position" button top right under the date choose box...

RacingHK also has speed and pace figs (supposedly, I haven't looked at them closely):

http://racinghk.com/


I see you right, The Equibase form I use is crap.

ubercapper
10-05-2015, 01:54 PM
I see you right, The Equibase form I use is crap.

I looked into this and discovered that Equibase just passes through the data HKJC provides on to whatever US sources distribute the information. At this time that does not include sectional information but I have been told we will reach out to them to see if it can be included in the future.

Cratos
10-05-2015, 05:03 PM
I looked into this and discovered that Equibase just passes through the data HKJC provides on to whatever US sources distribute the information. At this time that does not include sectional information but I have been told we will reach out to them to see if it can be included in the future.
Have you looked at Trakus T-Net for Hong Kong and Singapore data?

cbp
10-05-2015, 06:18 PM
Thanks, GT. So they do have position and beaten length data by split. And it would be very easy to scrape it.
It just got very interesting.

No need to deal with TRAKUS and their BS

Cratos
10-05-2015, 10:56 PM
Thanks, GT. So they do have position and beaten length data by split. And it would be very easy to scrape it.
It just got very interesting.

No need to deal with TRAKUS and their BS
I hope you realize that the data source given by GT is in part Trakus , but don't let the facts slap you in the face because it might sting a little.

I have been on this forum a long time and in horserace gambling/handicapping a lot longer and it never surprises when cynics like you appear.

cbp
10-06-2015, 12:34 AM
I hope you realize that the data source given by GT is in part Trakus , but don't let the facts slap you in the face because it might sting a little.

I have been on this forum a long time and in horserace gambling/handicapping a lot longer and it never surprises when cynics like you appear.
Really? You can't see the Trakus data if you don't have an account. And, good luck getting someone live if you call. They have the data and the idiots to make sure not too many people can use it.

GameTheory
10-06-2015, 02:08 AM
I don't believe any of the official data is generated by Trakus -- they've only had it a couple of years, and were initially disappointed in it. They are working on getting out the kinks. The video replays/simulations use it, but not the sectional times (which they've had since 2008, as I've said).

Cratos
10-06-2015, 12:01 PM
I don't believe any of the official data is generated by Trakus -- they've only had it a couple of years, and were initially disappointed in it. They are working on getting out the kinks. The video replays/simulations use it, but not the sectional times (which they've had since 2008, as I've said).
There are some growing pains with Trakus as there were some with Microsoft, Apple, Parametric Technologies and other tech start-ups, but technology wise using vector analysis, no other horse racing data provider anywhere provides better timing info.

Trakus users-to-be will have to rethink their thinking to the more comprehensive method of the aforementioned vector analysis when it comes to time and distance when assessing the horse's velocity; not its speed.

steveb
10-07-2015, 07:37 PM
There are some growing pains with Trakus as there were some with Microsoft, Apple, Parametric Technologies and other tech start-ups, but technology wise using vector analysis, no other horse racing data provider anywhere provides better timing info.

Trakus users-to-be will have to rethink their thinking to the more comprehensive method of the aforementioned vector analysis when it comes to time and distance when assessing the horse's velocity; not its speed.


in australia that's what we call 'shifting the goal posts'!

honk kong does not use trakus in any shape or form on their site.
they don't even provide links to the info.
of course there is a reason for that.....

i reckon trakus is actually using the finish time from whoever is the official timer for there.

the sections from the hkjc site and trakus don't match remotely

with that in mind, would you mind clarifying this statement of yours....

"I hope you realize that the data source given by GT is in part Trakus , but don't let the facts slap you in the face because it might sting a little."

because his(GT) links have nothing to do with trakus and they are certainly not the source, in part or otherwise.

completebill
10-09-2015, 03:39 PM
I was always a big Cramer Fan. I've got all his books.

I recently dug out all of his "stuff" and re-read them. I decided to test his concepts to see if they're still viable. I was able to test almost all of his ideas using the ROBOT feature of the HTR program.

I ran his concepts through a database of every race run in North America over the last two years.

Alas---The game has changed over the years. Unfortunately, nothing was now profitable.

ebcorde
10-14-2015, 09:29 AM
I've found pace to be virtually useless for Hong Kong and Australian racing. Others may have a different result.

No, Pete your right. Pace on Turf anywhere is not reliable. The fact that the Euro's place little emphasis on Pace says it all.

The more I examine pace , it's ONE part of the total handicapping package. I think Class(dropping down) and Trainers outweigh pace. And dropping down is a discussion in itself, as I define it as Backclass too, not always the last couple of races.

steveb
10-14-2015, 07:58 PM
No, Pete your right. Pace on Turf anywhere is not reliable. The fact that the Euro's place little emphasis on Pace says it all.

The more I examine pace , it's ONE part of the total handicapping package. I think Class(dropping down) and Trainers outweigh pace. And dropping down is a discussion in itself, as I define it as Backclass too, not always the last couple of races.

thank you for that.
i am australian and pace and time are easily the most important factors in my models for australian racing.

hong kong though is different.
there they have the best jockeys around, and invariably most races are paced very well, thus making it hard to get much benefit for there from pace.
overall speeds are not as predictive either for the same reason, in that most races tend to run very close to the speed you expect them to for that class.

of course that is simply my own views, others may actually gain more benefit than i can(could).

cbp
10-14-2015, 09:14 PM
thank you for that.
i am australian and pace and time are easily the most important factors in my models for australian racing.

hong kong though is different.
there they have the best jockeys around, and invariably most races are paced very well, thus making it hard to get much benefit for there from pace.
overall speeds are not as predictive either for the same reason, in that most races tend to run very close to the speed you expect them to for that class.

of course that is simply my own views, others may actually gain more benefit than i can(could).

I've always thought that numeric pace is a subset of the setup or type of race. Now that I know of their existence, going to pull position and length data from the site and see what these races look like. I would be surprised if the turf races, at least, don't fall into categories.

steveb
10-14-2015, 09:57 PM
I've always thought that numeric pace is a subset of the setup or type of race. Now that I know of their existence, going to pull position and length data from the site and see what these races look like. I would be surprised if the turf races, at least, don't fall into categories.

not sure i understand what you mean by....."I've always thought that numeric pace is a subset of the setup or type of race."

the races do fall into categories, in that c5 is slower than c4 and c4 is slower than c3 etc.
although once you get to the top of the tree the differences are not as much as the lower grade races.

for me class and time are exactly the same thing, and i have way to determine it, that does not require any subjectiveness.
anyway, the differences between the classes are VERY well defined, but because horses there nearly always race in their correct grade, and the times of the races mostly fit your expectations then there is little variance and thus difficult for 'me' to get much value out of it.
that does not mean that one can't get value out of them, just that compared to other jurisdictions like singapore or japan or australia, etc etc, it is more difficult(for me)

but people can and do win lots of money there, and probably could myself if i was interested enough.
it's just that time is not the major factor it appears to be elsewhere.

i have all the section, positioning, results, trackwork, trials data going back for a long time, so indeed it is easy to grab it.
although it's probably best to buy it from a good source where you will get many more fields(more information) than you can from the web pages.

Nitro
10-16-2015, 11:52 PM
not sure i understand what you mean by....."I've always thought that numeric pace is a subset of the setup or type of race."

the races do fall into categories, in that c5 is slower than c4 and c4 is slower than c3 etc.
although once you get to the top of the tree the differences are not as much as the lower grade races.

for me class and time are exactly the same thing, and i have way to determine it, that does not require any subjectiveness.
anyway, the differences between the classes are VERY well defined, but because horses there nearly always race in their correct grade, and the times of the races mostly fit your expectations then there is little variance and thus difficult for 'me' to get much value out of it.
that does not mean that one can't get value out of them, just that compared to other jurisdictions like singapore or japan or australia, etc etc, it is more difficult(for me)

but people can and do win lots of money there, and probably could myself if i was interested enough.
it's just that time is not the major factor it appears to be elsewhere.

i have all the section, positioning, results, trackwork, trials data going back for a long time, so indeed it is easy to grab it.
although it's probably best to buy it from a good source where you will get many more fields(more information) than you can from the web pages.
If there really is something called “numeric pace” I would think that it’s determined by the anticipated running styles of the entries in a race and the distance they’ll be running. In fact, if anyone is really interested in the pace numbers for the horses racing at HK, all they have to do is go to the Form Guide provided (for free) by the HK Jockey Club and review the “Sectional Times” posted for every race each entry has run. For Sunday’s (10/18) races check out:
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html

Beyond that they also provide a “Speed Map” which offers not only a graphic illustration and commentary of all the runners in each race, but a clear-cut rating of how the anticipated overall pace will develop. They use very basic terms that anyone can understand like: Slow, Good to Slow, Good, and Good to Fast. At first glance, it might seem over simplified, but when you can combine that information with how the track surface is actually playing it can be very helpful if you’re trying to handicap the race. http://www.hkjc.com/english/speedguide/1.html

I agree that the Class rankings in HK are very well defined. However, when you follow their racing carefully you’ll notice that races at similar distances within the same Class DO NOT always produce pace ratings in the same range and ARE in fact Variable. This might one of the reasons why there is SO MUCH value to be had in HK racing in general. Which suggests (to me anyway) that the speed or “time factor” is not clearly understood by those using it because its being viewed as simply a numeric value that’s assumed to repeat itself based on Class alone. Besides, as my mentor has frequently reminded me, you CAN NOT use an exact science like Math to evaluate horse-flesh.
.

cbp
10-17-2015, 12:29 AM
Numeric pace takes split times and classes and determines if a given race's pace was fast or slow or neither. Setup is how the race actually played out. Did it fall apart late, with closers finishing in the top spots; or did the pacesetters hold to the wire? These approaches are not necessarily in agreement. Does one use numbers to classify a race or does one let the horses do it?


The fractions on the site are useful for pace numbers. The snapshot at each call is useless, as you get a narrow view of the call and not the overall race. Just charting the beaten lengths gives a much more comprehensive view of what happened in the race.

steveb
10-17-2015, 03:18 AM
If there really is something called “numeric pace” I would think that it’s determined by the anticipated running styles of the entries in a race and the distance they’ll be running. In fact, if anyone is really interested in the pace numbers for the horses racing at HK, all they have to do is go to the Form Guide provided (for free) by the HK Jockey Club and review the “Sectional Times” posted for every race each entry has run. For Sunday’s (10/18) races check out:
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html

Beyond that they also provide a “Speed Map” which offers not only a graphic illustration and commentary of all the runners in each race, but a clear-cut rating of how the anticipated overall pace will develop. They use very basic terms that anyone can understand like: Slow, Good to Slow, Good, and Good to Fast. At first glance, it might seem over simplified, but when you can combine that information with how the track surface is actually playing it can be very helpful if you’re trying to handicap the race. http://www.hkjc.com/english/speedguide/1.html

I agree that the Class rankings in HK are very well defined. However, when you follow their racing carefully you’ll notice that races at similar distances within the same Class DO NOT always produce pace ratings in the same range and ARE in fact Variable. This might one of the reasons why there is SO MUCH value to be had in HK racing in general. Which suggests (to me anyway) that the speed or “time factor” is not clearly understood by those using it because its being viewed as simply a numeric value that’s assumed to repeat itself based on Class alone. Besides, as my mentor has frequently reminded me, you CAN NOT use an exact science like Math to evaluate horse-flesh.
.

pretty sure i understand it much better than most, so maybe you are better still!!
the pace is variable as you say, but i know it is nowhere near as much as other places, and it may depend on how one does it.

if the speed for c5 was perhaps '50' then if it was paced efficiently you would have that same '50' for each time point, and although it rarely fits perfectly, it is mostly thereabouts.


i used to get paid to analyse times for various betting syndicates, so i have a fair idea of where i sit on the (time & pace) ladder.

i don't know where you get your value from?
does usa co-mingle with hk pools?
the betting syndicates are all active in hk as far as i know(i am out of that loop now), so if you can get the value you say you can then ......i dips me lid to you!

Hoofless_Wonder
10-21-2015, 03:23 PM
....

i don't know where you get your value from?
does usa co-mingle with hk pools?
the betting syndicates are all active in hk as far as i know(i am out of that loop now), so if you can get the value you say you can then ......i dips me lid to you!

Not sure about all the North American ADWs, but the Big 3 (Twinspires, Xpressbet and TVG) all offer co-mingled pools with Hong Kong.

From an odds perspective, you may be right about the value. Just because the pools are large, doesn't equate to meaning they automatically represent value. And yes, the syndicates/whales are out in full force at Hong Kong. And, this is just my two cents, with Moreira dominating with mostly chalk ponies, it also cuts into the value available.

However, I find some value in that track bias isn't always taken into account, there is some "dumb" money in the pools (especially the QP), and it's not uncommon to find that 8-1 to 20-1 who can at least hit the board with a decent trip. Additionally, I find the real value of Hong Kong in that the races are clean, and I don't have to be a vet to know who's in form and going to run well today. Very few extreme surprises there on the upside or downside, and that makes it very worthwhile.....

ebcorde
10-21-2015, 04:16 PM
thank you for that.
i am australian and pace and time are easily the most important factors in my models for australian racing.

hong kong though is different.
there they have the best jockeys around, and invariably most races are paced very well, thus making it hard to get much benefit for there from pace.
overall speeds are not as predictive either for the same reason, in that most races tend to run very close to the speed you expect them to for that class.

of course that is simply my own views, others may actually gain more benefit than i can(could).

Hey, I love Australian Racing, I'm not close minded about Pace/Speed I do use it. I need Class as well. Look at pace, after I've eliminated the poorer class Horses.

so that's why Hong Kong is hard? they all run the same pace. Their Class ratings are very not useful either. Class 4/5 Class 2,3,4 does not matter.

Nitro
11-02-2015, 04:17 PM
pretty sure i understand it much better than most, so maybe you are better still!!
the pace is variable as you say, but i know it is nowhere near as much as other places, and it may depend on how one does it.

if the speed for c5 was perhaps '50' then if it was paced efficiently you would have that same '50' for each time point, and although it rarely fits perfectly, it is mostly thereabouts.


i used to get paid to analyse times for various betting syndicates, so i have a fair idea of where i sit on the (time & pace) ladder.

i don't know where you get your value from?
does usa co-mingle with hk pools?
the betting syndicates are all active in hk as far as i know(i am out of that loop now), so if you can get the value you say you can then ......i dips me lid to you!
Perhaps you do understand the Pace scenario better than most. In terms of it varying within the same class and distance parameters I see a lot of variation, and I don’t even attempt to use that information at all.

As already mentioned, there are a few betting sites that co-mingle their wagers with the HK pools, but they’re limited to Win, Place, Quinella and Triple. As far as the betting at HK goes there are always a number of races where there’s a valued return. Even when their top jockeys affect the betting pools it doesn’t always impact the results. When it does there always seems to be a nice long shot that pumps up the exotic results.

I strictly evaluate the potential outcome of each race by the Tote board analysis that I’ve been using for years! I find it’s invaluable in providing me with lucrative results. You see I don’t just talk about so-called selection methods. I actually post my live selections (every weekend) based on what I’m doing.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=126951

If you or anyone else who has some sort of handicapping prowess related to the HK racing I would welcome them to also post their selections.
.
.