Nobody's talking about Smooth Roller

[plainolebill]

Sucker ran a 111 Beyer in his 4th lifetime start. I like the trainer Victor Garcia, his dad was Juan Garcia an old timer at Caliente and in Socal.

In the interview after the Awsome Again Victor said he thought they'd take the horse to the BC Classic. I wish him the very best of luck.

[taxicab]

If the connections are clever they will send SR into the BC Dirt Mile.
That race is a much better fit for him.

[Stillriledup]

Sucker ran a 111 Beyer in his 4th lifetime start. I like the trainer Victor Garcia, his dad was Juan Garcia an old timer at Caliente and in Socal.

In the interview after the Awsome Again Victor said he thought they'd take the horse to the BC Classic. I wish him the very best of luck.

Running past Bayern w a perfect trip is something they need to keep in context. He's not ready for the BCC he's an inexperienced gate horse who acted up at DMR, he's a nice horse, hopefully they don't ruin him.

[plainolebill]

No matter who he was running past he was running fast past them :D .

My opinion: if a door opens, step through it. If it was my horse I'd be inclined to take a shot at the Classic.

[Stillriledup]

No matter who he was running past he was running fast past them :D .

My opinion: if a door opens, step through it. If it was my horse I'd be inclined to take a shot at the Classic.

People who don't manage their horses properly end up like MC Hammer, in and out of the game faster than you could say hammer time.

[Track Phantom]

People who don't manage their horses properly end up like MC Hammer, in and out of the game faster than you could say hammer time.

Good point. Which is why I'm sure the connections of Smooth Roller are going to troll this board, looking for advice from a random gambler on how they should manage this Grade 1 winner. Clearly, and partially based on only earning a 111 Beyer, they are clueless on what to do.

They'll be relieved when they log on here in the next few days.

[Stillriledup]

Good point. Which is why I'm sure the connections of Smooth Roller are going to troll this board, looking for advice from a random gambler on how they should manage this Grade 1 winner. Clearly, and partially based on only earning a 111 Beyer, they are clueless on what to do.

They'll be relieved when they log on here in the next few days.

Yes, because once you purchase a horse you become a know it all with nothing else to learn about the game.

How many owners have come and gone in this game because they couldn't afford to stay in the game anymore? I would guess plenty. Mistakes in managing horses are the #1 reason owners lose money at an accelerated rate.

[castaway01]

If the connections are clever they will send SR into the BC Dirt Mile.
That race is a much better fit for him.

I think that's the right move with the horse too; much better shot of actually competing in that one.

[horses4courses]

I think that's the right move with the horse too; much better shot of actually competing in that one.

You could have said the same about Arcangues and Volponi.

[cbp]

Perfect trip? I laughed

[Stillriledup]

You could have said the same about Arcangues and Volponi.

There's a reason the horse didnt make his first lifetime start until June of his 4 year old year.

[Tall One]

Few minutes ago, Breeders' Cup sends out a "welcome to the BC15 Classic Smooth Roller" tweet.

[Robert Fischer]

It was very impressive that he took money in the Brubaker stakes, reared up badly in/against the gate, and had to be re-loaded after a vet inspection, then stumbled at the start, and still did the most running in that race.

His win in the Awesome Again stakes was fine. He got a great trip and ran as expected.

He's fine as a member of the field in the Classic. No reason he shouldn't run. He's in good form and that's why you own racehorses. He should be a solid stakes horse out there for a while. If guys like Hoppertunity are 5/2-3-1 then anyone not facing Beholder has it pretty good. His connections are probably on cloud 9. He's not a need to lead type or anything, the Classic doesn't have to be any harder on him than any other race.

[classhandicapper]

This horse almost has to be entered in the Classic. The Awesome Again was a Grade 1 race. It wasn't the highest quality Grade 1, but he trounced Hoppertunity and put up one of the better figures for the year. I'd go with this horse.

[Tom]

There's a reason the horse didnt make his first lifetime start until June of his 4 year old year.

Yes, he was so fast, it took them that long to catch him.

[letswastemoney]

He's completely fine in the Breeders' Cup Classic. No reason to go for another race when the Awesome Again likely paid some of the fees.

He probably won't win the Classic, but if we limited the race to superstars there would be no horses left.

[v j stauffer]

Yes, because once you purchase a horse you become a know it all with nothing else to learn about the game.

How many owners have come and gone in this game because they couldn't afford to stay in the game anymore? I would guess plenty. Mistakes in managing horses are the #1 reason owners lose money at an accelerated rate.

Actually the #1 reason is horses that can't run. Perhaps your reason is #2.

Seems to me so far the managing of Smooth Roller has been absolutely perfect.

He just won a Grade 1 at 1 1/8 miles. He won by 5 1/4 lengths earning a massive Beyer. The race was a win and you're in for the BC Classic.

Now your advice is to turn him back to a flat mile and run for $4 million less?

Great idea.

What you don't know is alot!

[AndyC]

Actually the #1 reason is horses that can't run. Perhaps your reason is #2.

Seems to me so far the managing of Smooth Roller has been absolutely perfect.

He just won a Grade 1 at 1 1/8 miles. He won by 5 1/4 lengths earning a massive Beyer. The race was a win and you're in for the BC Classic.

Now your advice is to turn him back to a flat mile and run for $4 million less?

Great idea.

What you don't know is alot!

#1 might be because the horse can't run but #1a was listening to someone's advice about buying the horse in the first place.

[v j stauffer]

#1 might be because the horse can't run but #1a was listening to someone's advice about buying the horse in the first place.

Anyone who buys a horse deserves what they get. Kinda like marriage.

However, when it does work, even if only fleetingly, there's no feeling in the world like it.

Wonder if that applies for marriage too?

[Stillriledup]

Actually the #1 reason is horses that can't run. Perhaps your reason is #2.

Seems to me so far the managing of Smooth Roller has been absolutely perfect.

He just won a Grade 1 at 1 1/8 miles. He won by 5 1/4 lengths earning a massive Beyer. The race was a win and you're in for the BC Classic.

Now your advice is to turn him back to a flat mile and run for $4 million less?

Great idea.

What you don't know is alot!

The purse doesn't matter if you don't get a piece of it. Owners who run 50-1 shots don't last in this game as long as owners who run 6-5 shots.

It's math.

[v j stauffer]

The purse doesn't matter if you don't get a piece of it. Owners who run 50-1 shots don't last in this game as long as owners who run 6-5 shots.

It's math.

You're hopeless

[stringmail]

The purse doesn't matter if you don't get a piece of it. Owners who run 50-1 shots don't last in this game as long as owners who run 6-5 shots.

It's math.

As you stated, the horse didn't get to the races till 4YO and you question them for taking a shot at BC Classic with a 111BSF run in last race. Who knows how the long the window of opportunity is open? As someone said, step through.

I will say one thing, there is no way he is 50-1 in that race with that Beyer in his holster. Sure he fell in to a great trip but that shouldn't be a knock. He is tractable enough to work out a decent trip if he doesn't act up too much in paddock or at gate. I imagine that will be their biggest concern. Baze said he was training like a monster and if he comes back good, they'll be at Keeneland for BCC. He could be 4th choice behind AP, HC and Beholder. I'd sure rather he was 15-1 in BCC than 2-1 in Mile when deciding on who to bet.

That race just keeps getting more and more interesting.

[cj]

As you stated, the horse didn't get to the races till 4YO and you question them for taking a shot at BC Classic with a 111BSF run in last race. Who knows how the long the window of opportunity is open? As someone said, step through.

I will say one thing, there is no way he is 50-1 in that race with that Beyer in his holster. Sure he fell in to a great trip but that shouldn't be a knock. He is tractable enough to work out a decent trip if he doesn't act up too much in paddock or at gate. I imagine that will be their biggest concern. Baze said he was training like a monster and if he comes back good, they'll be at Keeneland for BCC. He could be 4th choice behind AP, HC and Beholder. I'd sure rather he was 15-1 in BCC than 2-1 in Mile when deciding on who to bet.

That race just keeps getting more and more interesting.

People who skip spots when horses are sharp usually wind up regretting it. You can't plan far ahead in this game, got to strike while the iron is hot.

[Rex Phinney]

There is absolutely nothing more he could have done to prove he is ready than he did in the Awesome Again, now if he doesn't belong then oh well, but the point is this horse looks as good as he possible could right now. If you aren't looking to take a shot with this horse in the BCC you are in the wrong game.

Sitting around waiting until you have the favorite in a $5,000,000 race to try it is a good way to never score in this game too. Roll the dice for god's sake.

[Stillriledup]

You're hopeless

I might be hopeless but I don't butcher horses 'taking a shot' these are incredibly fragile animals, you don't run in races where you have zero shot if you want to last long in this game as an owner.

[five-eighths]

Just curious, which place in the Classic is equivalent to winning the Mile money wise ?

I think he should probably go if he has a chance to hit the board.

[ronsmac]

People who skip spots when horses are sharp usually wind up regretting it. You can't plan far ahead in this game, got to strike while the iron is hot.Like Liams map skipping the jcgc and Private Zone skipping the Vosburgh. It's sad that 4 weeks between races is too taxing these days.

[cj]

Like Liams map skipping the jcgc. It's sad that 4 weeks between races is too taxing these days.


Don't forget Rock Fall skipping the Forego. It is sad and a few trainers drive it, especially TAP. But if his owners are happy, who am I to question it?

[Track Phantom]

Funny thing about this horse, Smooth Roller.

In his debut on June 27, he faced a full field (11 horse field). I remember this race vividly. I was alive to 3 or 4 in the pick 5. Smooth Roller was not one of them.

There was a steam horse in the race that was the selection of many in the morning radio shows as their play of the day. That runner was a first timer for Hector Palma.

When they got to this 5th race, Smooth Roller opened up at 8-5 (from a 6-1 morning line). I had noticed he was the favorite in the doubles and second favorite in the pick 3's despite this rather low percentage outfit.

During the minutes leading up to the post, I was obsessing over the money laid on this runner. I mentioned to a friend that "there is no way this horse gets beat based on how he is being played in all of the pools".

He drifted up to 4-1 about 2 minutes to post and, all of a sudden, hammered back down to 2-1 and went off favored. It was the most steam for these types of connections on a firster that I've seen in So. Cal. in a long time. The people who knew this horse was a runner, obviously knew there wasn't a maiden that could run with him and they bet accordingly.

I remembered all of that action when I made him my top choice in his second start but, for some reason, didn't recall it prior to the Awesome Again and I left him out of my pick 4. I remembered after I saw he won it and was kicking myself for not adding him.

I also thought he was bet lower than I would have anticipated in the G1 (think he won at 5-1 or something). I think the connections knew they had something serious.

[andtheyreoff]

I might be hopeless but I don't butcher horses 'taking a shot' these are incredibly fragile animals, you don't run in races where you have zero shot if you want to last long in this game as an owner.

Good thing you didn't own Take Charge Brandi last year.

[Stillriledup]

Good thing you didn't own Take Charge Brandi last year.

Yes thank god, we wouldn't want to have to see her race this year and next year and the year after that.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/94756/champion-take-charge-brandi-retired?source=rss

[andtheyreoff]

Yes thank god, we wouldn't want to have to see her race this year and next year and the year after that.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/94756/champion-take-charge-brandi-retired?source=rss

Yeah, cuz we know how great she was this fall. :rolleyes:

This was a filly who was good for a six-week period in her career. Her connections were aggressive, ran her when she was good, and it paid off was an Eclipse Award. Under SRU management, she'd be an also-ran forever.

[Stillriledup]

Yeah, cuz we know how great she was this fall. :rolleyes:

This was a filly who was good for a six-week period in her career. Her connections were aggressive, ran her when she was good, and it paid off was an Eclipse Award. Under SRU management, she'd be an also-ran forever.

Why would she be an also ran? I'm not following.

[Fager Fan]

If the horse has a bad temperament, then perhaps it's best to skip the craziness of the BC. Get him more experience next year and hope to end up in next year's BC. They've been patient thus far and he's a gelding.

[v j stauffer]

As you stated, the horse didn't get to the races till 4YO and you question them for taking a shot at BC Classic with a 111BSF run in last race. Who knows how the long the window of opportunity is open? As someone said, step through.

I will say one thing, there is no way he is 50-1 in that race with that Beyer in his holster. Sure he fell in to a great trip but that shouldn't be a knock. He is tractable enough to work out a decent trip if he doesn't act up too much in paddock or at gate. I imagine that will be their biggest concern. Baze said he was training like a monster and if he comes back good, they'll be at Keeneland for BCC. He could be 4th choice behind AP, HC and Beholder. I'd sure rather he was 15-1 in BCC than 2-1 in Mile when deciding on who to bet.

That race just keeps getting more and more interesting.

You think he'll be a shorter price than Liam's Map?

Don't see any way that's true.

Also think both Keen Ice and Frosted will be lower odds than the Roller.

[v j stauffer]

I might be hopeless but I don't butcher horses 'taking a shot' these are incredibly fragile animals, you don't run in races where you have zero shot if you want to last long in this game as an owner.

Butcher? Zero shot?

Ok whatever.

[v j stauffer]

People who skip spots when horses are sharp usually wind up regretting it. You can't plan far ahead in this game, got to strike while the iron is hot.

Another sharp post.

[davew]

Just curious, which place in the Classic is equivalent to winning the Mile money wise ?

I think he should probably go if he has a chance to hit the board.

last years ->

mile - million purse - 1st 550,000
classic - 5 million purse - 1st 2,750,000 2nd 900,000 3rd 500,000 4th 300,000

[Stillriledup]

Butcher? Zero shot?

Ok whatever.

I was talking about myself and how I would manage horses, I don't enter just to be able to say I ran on the 'big day' I know this might be a novel concept to you, but the horse would come first, I wouldn't be running 50-1 shots, I would know where my horses belong.

[v j stauffer]

I was talking about myself and how I would manage horses, I don't enter just to be able to say I ran on the 'big day' I know this might be a novel concept to you, but the horse would come first, I wouldn't be running 50-1 shots, I would know where my horses belong.

You're right again. It's a novel concept to me. In your mind the horse comes first.

The rest of us that don't have your knowledge, compassion and insight would just burn em, churn em and send em to the kill pen.

[Appy]

If you have a horse you really believe can win, 50-1 would be about as welcome a sight as you could hope for.
The window is often more lucrative than 10% of 60% of the top prize, especially at a smaller track.
Trainers bet too.

The thing that struck me about Smooth Roller was that they must have watched him run before they named him. He was all that smooth implies. A great mover with a terrific stride. He's what I call a "pretty runner". Makes it look easy.

[Rex Phinney]

Are 50-1 shots more prone to breaking down or injury than favorites?

Entering him in the Mile instead of the Classic does what to put the horse first? Same plane flight, same world class competition, same racetrack, same race day, same workout schedule.

So the extra quarter mile of the classic is what we are saying will "butcher" the horse?

Again I feel like I must be ignorant here...

[dilanesp]

Running past Bayern w a perfect trip is something they need to keep in context. He's not ready for the BCC he's an inexperienced gate horse who acted up at DMR, he's a nice horse, hopefully they don't ruin him.

That's basically how I see it. I'm not going to condemn the horse for what he did-- it was a very nice step up-- but he basically inherited that race and bear in mind, his last start was a 4th in the Harry Brubaker Stakes against a bunch of who dats.

[cj]

Horse ran a 127 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the Awesome Again. Wherever he goes next, this horse is a certified runner.

His first out he looked like a seasoned pro at a distance probably too short for his best, but he won easily anyway with a 100. Second time out he was wide through fast fractions while battling early, a favorite angle of mine, and still managed to hang on and win with a 111. It was no easy field, three have returned to win next out (one of them has even won his next two.)

In his third start, he had plenty of trouble at the start, was wide, and just couldn't make up much ground late against a slow pace. Still, he ran a 114, a new top. The Awesome Again was a slow paced race, but he stayed withing shouting distance and simply blew away the field in the lane. It wasn't a true G1 by any stretch, but he was very impressive.

[Stillriledup]

Are 50-1 shots more prone to breaking down or injury than favorites?

Entering him in the Mile instead of the Classic does what to put the horse first? Same plane flight, same world class competition, same racetrack, same race day, same workout schedule.

So the extra quarter mile of the classic is what we are saying will "butcher" the horse?

Again I feel like I must be ignorant here...

That's the 64 dollar question. Your theory would suggest that horses are machines and won't lose confidence if they're beaten badly vs horses they can't beat. Also, if we want to talk about this specific horse, he's had what, 5 lifetime starts and has already shown unprofessional behavior at the gate in one of those races, so do we think he's ready to handle Beholder, AP and other assorted superstars in front of tens of thousands of people in a 14 horse field?

[Stillriledup]

Horse ran a 127 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the Awesome Again. Wherever he goes next, this horse is a certified runner.

His first out he looked like a seasoned pro at a distance probably too short for his best, but he won easily anyway with a 100. Second time out he was wide through fast fractions while battling early, a favorite angle of mine, and still managed to hang on and win with a 111. It was no easy field, three have returned to win next out (one of them has even won his next two.)

In his third start, he had plenty of trouble at the start, was wide, and just couldn't make up much ground late against a slow pace. Still, he ran a 114, a new top. The Awesome Again was a slow paced race, but he stayed withing shouting distance and simply blew away the field in the lane. It wasn't a true G1 by any stretch, but he was very impressive.

No doubt he's good, but his win at SA was dressed up vs a front runner who isn't any good and the closers had no shot. He's a nice animal, I'd love to own 47 pct of him, but this is a big step. I think if he was a little more seasoned and didnt have 'gate issues' I'd be a little more apt to say he's ready for the shot. He's going to need a perfect trip in BC and lots to go he way to even have a board chance,, this is a seriously great field that's going to run here, we also don't know how he's going to ship and handle the situation.

It wouldn't be the worst entry in history, but it's not something I would entertain if I was managing the horse.

[Robert Fischer]

A lot of people feel the horse is great now and were surprised about the Awesome Again stakes.

Yea, his finish position in the Classic is going to be completely trip dependent.

He should be fine in terms of form and health. If he were a need-to-lead horse or something, I'd think it would be more risky. He already has shown that he can bounce back pretty well from running against the grain in the Brubaker, so the Classic is unlikely to ruin his form.

He adds to the field size, and should at least take a little money. That's a good thing IMO.

[Track Phantom]

Horse ran a 127 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the Awesome Again. Wherever he goes next, this horse is a certified runner.

His first out he looked like a seasoned pro at a distance probably too short for his best, but he won easily anyway with a 100. Second time out he was wide through fast fractions while battling early, a favorite angle of mine, and still managed to hang on and win with a 111. It was no easy field, three have returned to win next out (one of them has even won his next two.)

In his third start, he had plenty of trouble at the start, was wide, and just couldn't make up much ground late against a slow pace. Still, he ran a 114, a new top. The Awesome Again was a slow paced race, but he stayed withing shouting distance and simply blew away the field in the lane. It wasn't a true G1 by any stretch, but he was very impressive.

Good information here.

I'd consider him in the BC Classic, at least as an exotics add. I'd rather be right on occasion with a runner like this than right more often on a runner like AP, Honor Code, etc. It only takes one well constructed bet with a Smooth Roller type to change the course of your betting ledger for the entire year.

[Rex Phinney]

That's the 64 dollar question. Your theory would suggest that horses are machines and won't lose confidence if they're beaten badly vs horses they can't beat. Also, if we want to talk about this specific horse, he's had what, 5 lifetime starts and has already shown unprofessional behavior at the gate in one of those races, so do we think he's ready to handle Beholder, AP and other assorted superstars in front of tens of thousands of people in a 14 horse field?

So now we should put a Breeders Cup ban on any horse that ever had gate trouble? Assume that any horse that ever loses a race will have confidence issues?

He just beat a Clark winner, a Gold Cup winner, a CT Classic winner and last year's BC Classic winner in a G1 at an elite track going away. He is by Hard Spun out of an Unbridled mare for god's sake!

Sorry you are missing the boat on this and crying like a little girl about it, but you couldn't find a single real life owner who would agree with you. If that horse is sound noone should consider sitting him out.

[Stillriledup]

So now we should put a Breeders Cup ban on any horse that ever had gate trouble? Assume that any horse that ever loses a race will have confidence issues?

He just beat a Clark winner, a Gold Cup winner, a CT Classic winner and last year's BC Classic winner in a G1 at an elite track going away. He is by Hard Spun out of an Unbridled mare for god's sake!

Sorry you are missing the boat on this and crying like a little girl about it, but you couldn't find a single real life owner who would agree with you. If that horse is sound noone should consider sitting him out.

When did I ever say to put a ban on anything? You follow the game so you know the incredibly fragile nature of the modern thoroughbred, are you suggesting that every horse shoot for the moon no matter what the circumstances?

[Spalding No!]

Smooth Roller would represent an unprecedented profile were he to contest the BC Classic. As far back as 1991, no older horse that debuted as late as June has contested the Classic in the same year. Several 3yos have tried the trick, including Formal Gold and Tiznow, with the latter winning and the former a credible 5th. However, both of those had several stakes races under their belts. Meanwhile, many lightly raced colts, like French Deputy, Arch, and Uncle Mo have all bombed in the Classic.

Turning to the Goodwood (now the Awesome Again), there have been a few horses with somewhat similar profiles. Lundy's Liability, The Prime Minister, and Pleasantly Perfect (twice winner of the race) all won the Goodwood as lightly-raced older horses. None contested the BC Classic. Foreign-born Lundy's Liability, trained by Bobby Frankel was held out (I don't recall if he was BC nominated) in favor of the Clark Handicap (in which he was buried by Saint Liam). The Prime Minister ultimately never started after the Goodwood. Pleasantly Perfect bled post-race and was ineligible to start in the BC Classic in 2002 as a result. He went on to win both the Goodwood and the Classic the following year.

Considering these last 3 horses, it is questionable whether or not Smooth Roller will even make the race. Note that, on paper, it looks like his connections went "all in" for the Awesome Again, with 2 bullet works at 6f and 7f respectively. As SRU mentioned, given that this horse didn't debut until midway through his 4yo year, one has to be wary of his capacity to hold together much longer given the concentration of racing he has done since the debut.

In addition, the pedigree (Hard Spun) is not noted for soundness. There is no experience at 10f. As to his race rivals, Bayern and Hoppertunity, et. al. are completely underwhelming. He reversed form on his Brubaker rivals, but both are likely turf horses. One of the favorites in the Brubaker, Motown Man, is a reformed $32k claimer. Going back further to the allowance win (by a desperate nose), Perfect Set (by Pleasantly Perfect) was running for $16k earlier this year and Old Man Lake may have run as low as $10k.

[Fager Fan]

So now we should put a Breeders Cup ban on any horse that ever had gate trouble? Assume that any horse that ever loses a race will have confidence issues?

He just beat a Clark winner, a Gold Cup winner, a CT Classic winner and last year's BC Classic winner in a G1 at an elite track going away. He is by Hard Spun out of an Unbridled mare for god's sake!

Sorry you are missing the boat on this and crying like a little girl about it, but you couldn't find a single real life owner who would agree with you. If that horse is sound noone should consider sitting him out.

I do know owners who would disagree with you. It's based on conjecture though not knowing this horse. The red flags for me are that he's been gelded despite a decent pedigree, is lightly raced, and acted up in the gate. I'm assuming he's a horse with a difficult temperament. If I'm wrong in that assumption then maybe I'd consider the BC. Does anyone have the story on this horse?

[dilanesp]

Smooth Roller would represent an unprecedented profile were he to contest the BC Classic. As far back as 1991, no older horse that debuted as late as June has contested the Classic in the same year. Several 3yos have tried the trick, including Formal Gold and Tiznow, with the latter winning and the former a credible 5th. However, both of those had several stakes races under their belts. Meanwhile, many lightly raced colts, like French Deputy, Arch, and Uncle Mo have all bombed in the Classic.

Turning to the Goodwood (now the Awesome Again), there have been a few horses with somewhat similar profiles. Lundy's Liability, The Prime Minister, and Pleasantly Perfect (twice winner of the race) all won the Goodwood as lightly-raced older horses. None contested the BC Classic. Foreign-born Lundy's Liability, trained by Bobby Frankel was held out (I don't recall if he was BC nominated) in favor of the Clark Handicap (in which he was buried by Saint Liam). The Prime Minister ultimately never started after the Goodwood. Pleasantly Perfect bled post-race and was ineligible to start in the BC Classic in 2002 as a result. He went on to win both the Goodwood and the Classic the following year.

Considering these last 3 horses, it is questionable whether or not Smooth Roller will even make the race. Note that, on paper, it looks like his connections went "all in" for the Awesome Again, with 2 bullet works at 6f and 7f respectively. As SRU mentioned, given that this horse didn't debut until midway through his 4yo year, one has to be wary of his capacity to hold together much longer given the concentration of racing he has done since the debut.

In addition, the pedigree (Hard Spun) is not noted for soundness. There is no experience at 10f. As to his race rivals, Bayern and Hoppertunity, et. al. are completely underwhelming. He reversed form on his Brubaker rivals, but both are likely turf horses. One of the favorites in the Brubaker, Motown Man, is a reformed $32k claimer. Going back further to the allowance win (by a desperate nose), Perfect Set (by Pleasantly Perfect) was running for $16k earlier this year and Old Man Lake may have run as low as $10k.

This is just excellent and reminds me why I love this board so much.

[castaway01]

Good post Spalding---that's all I was saying many posts ago. Of course the owners should take a shot, strike while the iron is hot, etc. It's just that the odds of them winning are not good. If that's how they want to fire their shot, then fire.

[Rex Phinney]

When did I ever say to put a ban on anything? You follow the game so you know the incredibly fragile nature of the modern thoroughbred, are you suggesting that every horse shoot for the moon no matter what the circumstances?

No I'm suggesting that if a horse wins a $300,000 G1 at Santa Anita 5 weeks before the Breeders Cup Classic he should run there.

It's not like he beat a bunch of superstars but it wasn't a claiming race either.

One could argue that Joe Namath didn't belong in the Super Bowl, that the 1980 US Hockey team didn't belong on the same ice as the soviets or Onion didn't belong in a stakes race vs. Secretariat. But we all know how those stories ended.

[Stillriledup]

No I'm suggesting that if a horse wins a $300,000 G1 at Santa Anita 5 weeks before the Breeders Cup Classic he should run there.

It's not like he beat a bunch of superstars but it wasn't a claiming race either.

One could argue that Joe Namath didn't belong in the Super Bowl, that the 1980 US Hockey team didn't belong on the same ice as the soviets or Onion didn't belong in a stakes race vs. Secretariat. But we all know how those stories ended.

But these are the exceptions not the rule. If there was no downside I would say run em as high as you can, but the downside is loss of confidence or injury not to mention you're running in a race where you probably won't get a check, you're running against elite competition for free. It's a big risk.

[Rex Phinney]

But these are the exceptions not the rule. If there was no downside I would say run em as high as you can, but the downside is loss of confidence or injury not to mention you're running in a race where you probably won't get a check, you're running against elite competition for free. It's a big risk.

Of course they are the exceptions, that's the whole point of the post, without being given the chance none of that ever happens.

You don't know anything about the horse, his confidence or his soundness, so quit saying his confidence will be hurt or that he will get injured, that is totally speculation of the worst kind.

If we started only sending horses who "belong" in a race to post, field sizes would drop by half.

[v j stauffer]

Of course they are the exceptions, that's the whole point of the post, without being given the chance none of that ever happens.

You don't know anything about the horse, his confidence or his soundness, so quit saying his confidence will be hurt or that he will get injured, that is totally speculation of the worst kind.

If we started only sending horses who "belong" in a race to post, field sizes would drop by half.

Thank you. More SRU drivel. Has he been texting Smooth Roller?

[Stillriledup]

Of course they are the exceptions, that's the whole point of the post, without being given the chance none of that ever happens.

You don't know anything about the horse, his confidence or his soundness, so quit saying his confidence will be hurt or that he will get injured, that is totally speculation of the worst kind.

If we started only sending horses who "belong" in a race to post, field sizes would drop by half.

You seem to not really care that this horse has 'gate issues' and will be racing in front of a massive crowd, vs an all time great and large field. Since I'm the one saying to stick to a more conservative route for now, you're the guy saying 'go on with it' you should come up with a reason that this specific horse should get a shot. I don't see the logic to throw a horse like this to the wolves in his 5th lifetime start, it's not like this is a soft year for the classic.

[Valuist]

Are 50-1 shots more prone to breaking down or injury than favorites?



I don't have numbers to prove it, but anecdotally, no question about it.

What do you think would happen if a junior college team faced off against Ohio State? Better get the body bags ready.

[Stillriledup]

I don't have numbers to prove it, but anecdotally, no question about it.

What do you think would happen if a junior college team faced off against Ohio State? Better get the body bags ready.

VERY SHARP POST

7n-p69bXh5w

[Rex Phinney]

You seem to not really care that this horse has 'gate issues' and will be racing in front of a massive crowd, vs an all time great and large field. Since I'm the one saying to stick to a more conservative route for now, you're the guy saying 'go on with it' you should come up with a reason that this specific horse should get a shot. I don't see the logic to throw a horse like this to the wolves in his 5th lifetime start, it's not like this is a soft year for the classic.

Smooth Roller doesn't know that AP won the Triple Crown...

He doesn't know that Beholder has already beaten males...

He doesn't know whether Tonalist or Honor Code ran well in their last out...

They are all just horses to him, he is going to see them no different than those he has raced in his first 4 tries.

You are putting human thought process and knowledge into the equation, problem is Smooth Roller is not human.

You act like I'm casting a vote to send the horse to the slaughter house or something, Jesus Christ it's a horse race. So he got a late start and he is a long shot to win, big freaking deal, he just won a race that about 95% of the connections in the game dream about winning, So long as he is sound, let it rip.

[Rex Phinney]

I don't have numbers to prove it, but anecdotally, no question about it.

What do you think would happen if a junior college team faced off against Ohio State? Better get the body bags ready.

When the horses start wearing helmets, tackling each other or colliding head on in full sprint let me know..........

[Spalding No!]

Actually the #1 reason is horses that can't run. Perhaps your reason is #2.Most owners don't hold on to horses that "can't run". The main reason owners lose money is racehorse attrition. This is for the most part the result of injury. Major injuries in the vast majority of cases result from the exacerbation of pre-existing injuries developed through intense training.

In other words, most horses that "can't run" are made that way as a result of mismanagement.

Seems to me so far the managing of Smooth Roller has been absolutely perfect.I guess...that is...if the plan was to buy a yearling for 6-figures, geld him, wait 3 years, and then run.

He just won a Grade 1 at 1 1/8 miles. He won by 5 1/4 lengths earning a massive Beyer. The race was a win and you're in for the BC Classic. Now your advice is to turn him back to a flat mile and run for $4 million less?Turn back from a 9f race to a one mile and seventy yard race when the previous races were 8f, 8.5f, and 7f.

As opposed to first time going 10f and at the highest level.

Great idea.The turn back worked for Corinthian, Albertus Maximus, Furthest Land, Caleb's Posse, and Dakota Phone. That's over half of the BC Dirt Mile winners.

What you don't know is alot!You know what I'm going to do? I'm going to leave your words right up here for all my classes to enjoy, giving you full credit of course, Mr. Zenyatta.

[Stillriledup]

Smooth Roller doesn't know that AP won the Triple Crown...

He doesn't know that Beholder has already beaten males...

He doesn't know whether Tonalist or Honor Code ran well in their last out...

They are all just horses to him, he is going to see them no different than those he has raced in his first 4 tries.

You are putting human thought process and knowledge into the equation, problem is Smooth Roller is not human.

You act like I'm casting a vote to send the horse to the slaughter house or something, Jesus Christ it's a horse race. So he got a late start and he is a long shot to win, big freaking deal, he just won a race that about 95% of the connections in the game dream about winning, So long as he is sound, let it rip.

I'm not acting like anything, I'm just offering an opinion on how I would manage this horse, you're the one who seems offended, we can agree to disagree.

[Valuist]

When the horses start wearing helmets, tackling each other or colliding head on in full sprint let me know..........

Athletes know when they are overmatched and they struggle to keep up. I remember running track years ago and was doing ok. Then I had to face off against some brothers from Chicago. As a runner, I was used to gaining ground during a race but now I was losing ground, struggling and trying harder only made it worse. Human athletes aren't machines, and neither are horses. They aren't programmed to run a particular speed figure.

I bet I have gone thru over 10,000 race charts and the DNFs and pulled ups aren't the 3-1 shots. They are the horses who are in over their head and have overextended.

FWIW, I'm not implying Smooth Roller would be overmatched. Just the earlier inquiry by Rex Phinney.

[Rex Phinney]

I'm not acting like anything, I'm just offering an opinion on how I would manage this horse, you're the one who seems offended, we can agree to disagree.

Well good news is your name isn't on the owners tab for this horse. So it doesn't matter how you would manage him.

You should know how rare it is that these horses are in top form, if this horse ever has a chance of competing on this level this is it. The real roll of the dice would be assuming that he can make it til this time next year at the top of his game.

[Rex Phinney]

Athletes know when they are overmatched and they struggle to keep up. I remember running track years ago and was doing ok. Then I had to face off against some brothers from Chicago. As a runner, I was used to gaining ground during a race but now I was losing ground, struggling and trying harder only made it worse. Human athletes aren't machines, and neither are horses. They aren't programmed to run a particular speed figure.

I bet I have gone thru over 10,000 race charts and the DNFs and pulled ups aren't the 3-1 shots. They are the horses who are in over their head and have overextended.

FWIW, I'm not implying Smooth Roller would be overmatched. Just the earlier inquiry by Rex Phinney.

So we should have stretchers and ambulances ready for all those who plan on running against Usain Bolt in Rio?

Give me a freaking break dude.

The size of the odds has ZERO todo with breakdown or injury and until you have some real numbers to back up your position on that get out of here with that garbage.

[Spalding No!]

You should know how rare it is that these horses are in top form, if this horse ever has a chance of competing on this level this is it. The real roll of the dice would be assuming that he can make it til this time next year at the top of his game.
Yeah, meanwhile Beholder is going for what, her 3rd or 4th BC win? It's so rare to have repeat BC and Eclipse Award winners.

Anyone know who Golden Horn's main rival is in the Arc this weekend?

Certainly not flash in the pan Wise Dan who lost 8 of his 31 starts.

[Stillriledup]

Well good news is your name isn't on the owners tab for this horse. So it doesn't matter how you would manage him.

You should know how rare it is that these horses are in top form, if this horse ever has a chance of competing on this level this is it. The real roll of the dice would be assuming that he can make it til this time next year at the top of his game.

Who is it good news FOR? Not the horse. Not the owners who won't be getting a top 3 check, it's not good news for his fans who want to try and cash a bet on him.

Here's the difference between me and people who want to see him in the classic. The difference is that I know the horse has zero chance. I don't have to see him 'take the shot' because I already know what's going to happen to him if he enters. I'm already one step ahead.

As far as top form do you know what happens to top form when you go in a race and get your bridle jerked? You get knocked off form.

[Rex Phinney]

Who is it good news FOR? Not the horse. Not the owners who won't be getting a top 3 check, it's not good news for his fans who want to try and cash a bet on him.

Here's the difference between me and people who want to see him in the classic. The difference is that I know the horse has zero chance. I don't have to see him 'take the shot' because I already know what's going to happen to him if he enters. I'm already one step ahead.

As far as top form do you know what happens to top form when you go in a race and get your bridle jerked? You get knocked off form.

Did you just buy majority share in the horse????????

Didn't think so. Thus your opinion doesn't mean anything more than mine.

[v j stauffer]

Most owners don't hold on to horses that "can't run". The main reason owners lose money is racehorse attrition. This is for the most part the result of injury. Major injuries in the vast majority of cases result from the exacerbation of pre-existing injuries developed through intense training.

In other words, most horses that "can't run" are made that way as a result of mismanagement.

I guess...that is...if the plan was to buy a yearling for 6-figures, geld him, wait 3 years, and then run.

Turn back from a 9f race to a one mile and seventy yard race when the previous races were 8f, 8.5f, and 7f.

As opposed to first time going 10f and at the highest level.

The turn back worked for Corinthian, Albertus Maximus, Furthest Land, Caleb's Posse, and Dakota Phone. That's over half of the BC Dirt Mile winners.

You know what I'm going to do? I'm going to leave your words right up here for all my classes to enjoy, giving you full credit of course, Mr. Zenyatta.

Most of your takes are so incorrect I don't have to explain why. PA members are sharp enough to know for themselves.

I will address this. As far as managing the horse. To me management starts with the beginning of their racing career. Obviously if they get going late or run for way under purchase price something went amiss whether it was physical or decision making. Usually both. But since we're not privy to that and I can go on is his race record IMO those have been beautifully chosen.

A for you calling me Mr. Zenyatta although you were vainly attempting to be a smart ass. I can't think of a bigger compliment. Thank you.

[Stillriledup]

Did you just buy majority share in the horse????????

Didn't think so. Thus your opinion doesn't mean anything more than mine.

Everyone is allowed to voice an opinion, I'm not sure what owning the horse has to do with anything, I'm allowed to watch the tapes despite not owning him and I can form an unbiased opinion, an owner wouldn't be able to do that.

[davew]

Everyone is allowed to voice an opinion, I'm not sure what owning the horse has to do with anything, I'm allowed to watch the tapes despite not owning him and I can form an unbiased opinion, an owner wouldn't be able to do that.


is it possible for someone to have a strong opinion on anything to not be biased?

[Rex Phinney]

I'm allowed to watch the tapes despite not owning him and I can form an unbiased opinion, an owner wouldn't be able to do that.

Man this is so good, so now you have managed to convince yourself that your opinion might be MORE valuable than the owner. Because you are less bias than the owner. :lol:

Many owners treat these horses like part of their family, you haven't gone and visited that horse at the barn, you haven't talked at length with the trainer about the horses well being, you haven't waited patiently for the horse to come into his own and be ready to win a G1 at Santa Anita.

Yet here you are saying that this owner, with all this time and effort invested is less likely to look out for his horse than you.

[v j stauffer]

Everyone is allowed to voice an opinion, I'm not sure what owning the horse has to do with anything, I'm allowed to watch the tapes despite not owning him and I can form an unbiased opinion, an owner wouldn't be able to do that.

Are you Lester from the DMTC forum?

[AndyC]

Are you Lester from the DMTC forum?

Now that's a low blow!

[v j stauffer]

Now that's a low blow!

Do we really know. His posts and blogging MO seem very similar. Seriously.

[Stillriledup]

Now that's a low blow!

The lowest blow he's ever given me, and that's saying a lot! :D

[Stillriledup]

Man this is so good, so now you have managed to convince yourself that your opinion might be MORE valuable than the owner. Because you are less bias than the owner. :lol:

Many owners treat these horses like part of their family, you haven't gone and visited that horse at the barn, you haven't talked at length with the trainer about the horses well being, you haven't waited patiently for the horse to come into his own and be ready to win a G1 at Santa Anita.

Yet here you are saying that this owner, with all this time and effort invested is less likely to look out for his horse than you.

I'm not saying he's less likely to look out, but just because an owner is able to afford a horse doesn't make him an overnight expert in horse racing, news flash there are a LOT of owners who know very little about the game.

[Stillriledup]

An opinion is a bias toward your point of view you idiot.

Of course I'm biased towards my opinion, however, the opinion was formed without bias. My opinion could have gone either way before it was formed, I have no affiliation to that horse so I can form an opinion free of bias.

Also, you can joke about Lester but I wasn't the one who invited him to my place of work for a day of socialization, so I got you there. :D

[v j stauffer]

I'm not saying he's less likely to look out, but just because an owner is able to afford a horse doesn't make him an overnight expert in horse racing, news flash there are a LOT of owners who know very little about the game.

How would you know?

[v j stauffer]

Of course I'm biased towards my opinion, however, the opinion was formed without bias. My opinion could have gone either way before it was formed, I have no affiliation to that horse so I can form an opinion free of bias.

Also, you can joke about Lester but I wasn't the one who invited him to my place of work for a day of socialization, so I got you there. :D

I gave everybody a chance. He didn't handle himself well. Why would you try to belittle me because I never said no to anyone who asked to come to the announcers booth?

You truly are a dick.

[Stillriledup]

I gave everybody a chance. He didn't handle himself well. Why would you try to belittle me because I never said no to anyone who asked to come to the announcers booth?

You truly are a dick.

I'm not belittling you I'm having a laugh at your expense, just like you did with me. C'mon don't act so butthurt and you're much more of a dick here at PA than I am, lighten up.

[Stillriledup]

How would you know?

How would I know what?