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Dave Schwartz
09-27-2015, 10:42 PM
Pace Makes the Race Software

I am currently deep in development of a new software product - Pace Makes the Race - which will be available by Christmas, 2015!

I have named it in honor of my friends, Dick Schmidt and Tom Hambleton (now deceased), authors of the book, Pace Makes the Race. It will build on the concepts set down by Howard Sartin, Tom Brohamer and the aforementioned pair.

This product will be somewhat of a throw-back to my early days in the horse racing software market. It will support small, compact competitor neural network models, along with very advanced versions of Tom Brohamer's original brilliance, the Brohamer Model.

These neural networks will not only pick winners but will help with contender selection and exactas as well.

The pricing model will be an annual fee. DOWNLOADS WILL NOT REQUIRE A MONTHLY SUBSCRIPTION!


If you have ideas for bells and whistles that you would like to see added, please post them here.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

PS: This delivery date is firm.

Secondbest
09-27-2015, 11:30 PM
Will pizzola's fulcrum concept be part of it.If I remember he did a whole card for the book.

Dave Schwartz
09-27-2015, 11:47 PM
Perhaps, but only if someone can explain how it works.

KPMats10
09-28-2015, 12:47 AM
What data files will it be compatible with?

What I'd really, really like to see is the implementation of using track pars to adjust the selected paceline to today's track and distance, then compute the FPS numbers and AP, EP, SP and FX rankings as well as %E. My current MPH software does not do that and I've been searching for a less time consuming way to do it compared to what I do now.

Building decision models and track profiles like Brohamer suggests in MPH would also be a must.

I'd like to learn the Hat's Match Up, but I've yet to really dive into it. Computer automation for it would be pretty neat.

Dave Schwartz
09-28-2015, 01:31 AM
What data files will it be compatible with?

HDW will be the data provider.


What I'd really, really like to see is the implementation of using track pars to adjust the selected paceline to today's track and distance, then compute the FPS numbers and AP, EP, SP and FX rankings as well as %E. My current MPH software does not do that and I've been searching for a less time consuming way to do it compared to what I do now.


All that you requested above is standard, as well as a great many custom adjustments. Also, there will be a spot ready for Trakus horse times if we ever get that far.


Building decision models and track profiles like Brohamer suggests in MPH would also be a must.

Absolutely.


I'd like to learn the Hat's Match Up, but I've yet to really dive into it. Computer automation for it would be pretty neat.

Is someone can give me a set of rules, I'll try to add it.

KyRacer
09-28-2015, 02:51 AM
Will we see your paceline selection method that's in your other products?

Tom
09-28-2015, 08:36 AM
Will it come with a virus installed? ;):lol:

Seriously, sound interesting.....

Capper Al
09-28-2015, 08:37 AM
No Giles and PPG?

upthecreek
09-28-2015, 09:00 AM
Sounds quite interesting Dave,how's the other software project coming along?
Thanks for all your hard work

Dave Schwartz
09-28-2015, 12:17 PM
Will we see your paceline selection method that's in your other products?

Yes, and the ability to create your own rule-based paceline selection systems.


No Giles and PPG?

Giles, yes. What is "PPG?"


Sounds quite interesting Dave,how's the other software project coming along?

I have hired someone to help me with this. Going much slower than I would like.


Will it come with a virus installed?

:lol: Where is that "stick out your tongue" emote?

KPMats10
09-28-2015, 12:21 PM
Manual paceline selection will hopefully be an option

Tom
09-28-2015, 12:26 PM
:lol: Where is that "stick out your tongue" emote?

:p This one? :p

Dave Schwartz
09-28-2015, 02:30 PM
Manual paceline selection will hopefully be an option

Of course.

Also, the pacelines selected can be weighted.

Isn't someone going to ask about how velocity will be expressed?

KPMats10
09-28-2015, 02:44 PM
Isn't someone going to ask about how velocity will be expressed?

Fire away, Dave!

Dave Schwartz
09-28-2015, 02:47 PM
LOL - You can choose between FPS, Pace "Ratings," and a couple of other running-style-based approaches.

Again, I want to reiterate that this software WILL be ready by Christmas.

BTW, HSH users will get the program and downloads for free.

Gentz
09-28-2015, 03:11 PM
Hurry up Dave.. Sounds great!!!

thaskalos
09-28-2015, 05:01 PM
If ten different horseplayers use the product...will they all get the same handicapping results?

Dave Schwartz
09-28-2015, 05:11 PM
If ten different horseplayers use the product...will they all get the same handicapping results?

No, they will all likely get different results.

Clocker
09-28-2015, 05:25 PM
Is someone can give me a set of rules, I'll try to add it.

Rules? We don't got no rules.

The Match Up is very subjective and qualitative. You project the likely early pace of the race and throw out any horse that looks unable to compete at that pace. You then compare the contenders against each other using a pace line for each that appears to be representative of what the horse is capable of doing today. An important part of that comparison is determining whether the race is likely to be run "E" (early) or "OTE" (other than early), and which horses that will favor.


http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5715

whodoyoulike
09-28-2015, 05:52 PM
No, they will all likely get different results.

Not even 4 out of 10?

Is this the program which you were taking a Poll on a wish list of features a couple of months ago?

Which features from the list did you decide to use?

Dave Schwartz
09-28-2015, 06:00 PM
Not even 4 out of 10?

LOL - Pick different contenders, different pacelines, make different decisions. How would I know how many will get the same horses?



Is this the program which you were taking a Poll on a wish list of features a couple of months ago?


Different program.

That one is under development by a contractor. I am writing this one myself.

thaskalos
09-28-2015, 06:26 PM
What would be the hardware requirements for using this software...for the handicapper who hasn't yet plunged into "computer handicapping"?

Dave Schwartz
09-28-2015, 07:33 PM
What would be the hardware requirements for using this software...for the handicapper who hasn't yet plunged into "computer handicapping"?

Windows 7 or newer, laptop or tablet. This will be a small footprint program. Not like the current monster I have.

Horse racing software always does better with wider screens because of the columns, but I am really trying to write this so it works well even in a tablet. We'll see about that.

Capper Al
09-28-2015, 07:47 PM
Giles, yes. What is "PPG?"



Giles' Pace Pressure Gage.

098poi
09-28-2015, 07:53 PM
LOL - You can choose between FPS, Pace "Ratings," and a couple of other running-style-based approaches.

Again, I want to reiterate that this software WILL be ready by Christmas.

BTW, HSH users will get the program and downloads for free.

I like that last line! The idea that it will be ready by Christmas makes me think of your poor wife. I know how hard you work on a project and I bet she will be happier when it's done than you are. Put something extra under the tree for her.

Dave Schwartz
09-28-2015, 08:02 PM
Giles' Pace Pressure Gage.

Expect something similar.

I like that last line! The idea that it will be ready by Christmas makes me think of your poor wife. I know how hard you work on a project and I bet she will be happier when it's done than you are. Put something extra under the tree for her

I have mellowed a bit in recent years.

But there is a degree of truth to this because I have not been this excited about a project in a long time. I guess working on a single piece of software for 16 years has made me bored.

Mr.XXX
09-28-2015, 08:04 PM
Now this is an exciting development-- this definitely gets me in a posting mood!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I wish to highlight a couple of areas of concern:

FIRST: Although there's plenty good software of this type already, all fail in the presentation and ease of use.
I'm talking about usefulness for a serious handicapper who looks at all tracks all days, or almost.
Usually one has to click too much / repeatedly toggle between screens. Even worse is the size of the screens themselves, either illegibly cramming too much, or forcing horizontal scrolling.

SECOND: PP's are lacking or are provided in a format that is not user adjustable.

THIRD: Models, profiles, database, etc. One either almost has to be a programmer to run queries, or accept hard-baked secret recipe algorithms.
Again, I am referring to programs in general, nothing specific.
Each field in the pp data file should be able to be run in a database query: alone, in combination, etc.

So in conclusion, I would urge you to think in terms of tabbed browsing so prevalent today; "PLUS the ability to tile", especially in case the user has a larger screen or wants to adjust the resolution to fit extra modules.
Also, please allow user customizing: add/remove/rearrange any of the columns.

And pp's could really augment your product. In fact, for simplicity and smartphone/tablet use you could have one screen such as the bris pp generator type "substituting the actual fractions for adjusted fractions PLUS adding the incremental ones(now things like Turn Time, Early Stretch, etc. are there at immediate glance) and a couple of others like 2+3, etc."
SO NOW, in one fell swoop a handicapper has some key pace numbers in the pp's. AND AS LONG as the running line comments are not removed to add the extra numbers, THIS SAVES A LOT OF TIME DURING HANDICAPPING, THERE IS NO PRICE THAT CAN BE PUT ON THIS.

There's also no price that can be put on being able to generate esoteric football-esque stats for the horses, no matter how nonsensical some.

Why not? It's more fun, the user becomes a chef, appeals to the younger.

Thank you sir.

JimG
09-28-2015, 08:28 PM
Christmas time brings back memories of when Dave would always do a nifty upgrade to the HSH program in its infant stages. Best of luck with the new software Dave.

Jim

Dave Schwartz
09-28-2015, 08:53 PM
I wish to highlight a couple of areas of concern:

FIRST: Although there's plenty good software of this type already, all fail in the presentation and ease of use.
I'm talking about usefulness for a serious handicapper who looks at all tracks all days, or almost.

Usually one has to click too much / repeatedly toggle between screens. Even worse is the size of the screens themselves, either illegibly cramming too much, or forcing horizontal scrolling.

The nature of handicapping software is that it demands a lot of columns on the screen. The result is often an overabundance of data.

As a general rule, I go for text-based report screens, and create some kind of user-defined reporting system. That is my plan here.

BTW, text-based screens have the advantage of allowing the user to easily add comments and then capture that data somewhere.

Our current software (HSH (http://store.thehorsehandicappingauthority.com/the-horsestreet-handicapper/), is a picture in excess, in terms of data. There are around 4,000 factors per horse - which can be a bit overwhelming.


SECOND: PP's are lacking or are provided in a format that is not user adjustable.


Although the pacelines must be presented in a format that looks somewhat past performance-like, I am a believer that the user's goal is to have a handful of reports to study for each race and that he must be able to get at them in a quickly accessible way.

I have no intention of creating a reproduction of the DRF.


THIRD: Models, profiles, database, etc. One either almost has to be a programmer to run queries, or accept hard-baked secret recipe algorithms.
Again, I am referring to programs in general, nothing specific.
Each field in the pp data file should be able to be run in a database query: alone, in combination, etc.


Roger that!

Our query system in HSH is template driven, with check boxes, and range fields. Everything in this system will be as such. We're not building a programmer's system.

There are like 4 people on the planet that want that. LOL

(Ask me how I know.)


So in conclusion, I would urge you to think in terms of tabbed browsing so prevalent today; "PLUS the ability to tile", especially in case the user has a larger screen or wants to adjust the resolution to fit extra modules.
Also, please allow user customizing: add/remove/rearrange any of the columns.


My paradigm is to open a race in a single window, with all the pertinent information (i.e. models, reports, etc.) contained on tabs within that window.

Of course, the user can open as many race windows as he likes at one time.


And pp's could really augment your product. In fact, for simplicity and smartphone/tablet use you could have one screen such as the bris pp generator type "substituting the actual fractions for adjusted fractions PLUS adding the incremental ones(now things like Turn Time, Early Stretch, etc. are there at immediate glance) and a couple of others like 2+3, etc."
SO NOW, in one fell swoop a handicapper has some key pace numbers in the pp's. AND AS LONG as the running line comments are not removed to add the extra numbers, THIS SAVES A LOT OF TIME DURING HANDICAPPING, THERE IS NO PRICE THAT CAN BE PUT ON THIS.


Why not? It's more fun, the user becomes a chef, appeals to the younger.


Alas, here is the only place we disagree. I simply cannot put this kind of power on a phone. Just not possible.

Possibly - and I say possibly not probably - I can get it to work on a screen such as an iPad.



There's also no price that can be put on being able to generate esoteric football-esque stats for the horses, no matter how nonsensical some.

I hear you. I am a pure metrics guy.

Dave Schwartz
09-28-2015, 09:08 PM
Christmas time brings back memories of when Dave would always do a nifty upgrade to the HSH program in its infant stages. Best of luck with the new software Dave.

Jim


Thanks, Jim.

lsosa54
09-29-2015, 01:51 AM
I guess the part I don't get Dave is that with concepts like Improve/Decline and New Pace and software like HSH, why would you want to go back to Sartin Phase 1 early/late numbers and Phase 3 velocity numbers? Aren't we going backwards 26 years or so?

Dave Schwartz
09-29-2015, 02:27 AM
I guess the part I don't get Dave is that with concepts like Improve/Decline and New Pace and software like HSH, why would you want to go back to Sartin Phase 1 early/late numbers and Phase 3 velocity numbers? Aren't we going backwards 26 years or so?


Because it is how people enjoy playing. Besides, those concepts will also be incorporated, along with many other enhancements.

Wait until you see the adjustments.

upthecreek
09-29-2015, 07:39 AM
From an old PA thread:
The fulcrum pace is the fastest second call pace among the last pacelines of all the horses in the race, provided that (1) the horse was competitive at both the second call and the finish......, and (2) the pace is not atypically fast for that horse."

It must be the last paceline, no exceptions.

Competitiveness guideline defined as less than five lengths behind at both calls.

Not atypically fast means that the horse has run equally fast (to the second call) in the past.

At this point, you may or may not have a fulcrum pace. Not all races have one.

Pizzolla then looked at all the horse's good finishes and checked what the second call pace of race was. If it was slower than the fulcrum, then the horse probably was not a contender. He threw out lots of non-competitive horses that way.

Another approach (the way I did it) was to look at all the horses' pace lines where the second call pace of the race is within (+/-) a couple of lengths of the fulcrum pace fig. I think he used the fractional times within +/- one fifth second, but you should be able to use whatever pace figs you use. If fulcrum was 46-3/5 sec, he looked at races where the second call was between 46-2/5 and 46-4/5. You might say that the fulcrum is a 75 EP. You then look at races where the second call pace of race is between 71 and 79.

Wherever the horse ran against that fulcrum pace, check to see if it ran a good race (1st, 2nd or 3rd, or within 2 lengths in a sprint or 3 lengths in a rte.) If it did run good races against the fulcrum pace, it's a contender. Some of this stuff I have probably borrowed from some other stuff Pizzolla wrote in some Follow-Up articles for Sartinista

mikesal57
09-29-2015, 09:55 AM
Dave...

Back in May you had us all going with "Designing New, FREE Software" ...

Now this...Pace Makes the Race Software

You had us waiting for the freebie and you pop us with a pay program which someone said is outdated and the concept was pretty much covered by Ted Craven's RDSS for the past 20 years or so.

Also , in the middle of this you wanted to "Learn Fantasy Sports"...

I know that your going to say its an on-going projects that you have but trying to keep track of you is worse than me keeping track of my son :)

Mike

Capper Al
09-29-2015, 10:20 AM
Because it is how people enjoy playing. Besides, those concepts will also be incorporated, along with many other enhancements.

Wait until you see the adjustments.

Give the people what they want.

Houndog
09-29-2015, 01:02 PM
I know you mentioned Windows 7 as a minimal requirement but would this software be able to run on Windows XP Professional. I know Windows XP is no longer being supported by Microsoft but was just curious.

Other than that this software you are developing sounds promising.

Dave Schwartz
09-29-2015, 01:32 PM
Back in May you had us all going with "Designing New, FREE Software" ...

Now this...Pace Makes the Race Software

You had us waiting for the freebie and you pop us with a pay program which someone said is outdated and the concept was pretty much covered by Ted Craven's RDSS for the past 20 years or so.

Also , in the middle of this you wanted to "Learn Fantasy Sports"...

I know that your going to say its an on-going projects that you have but trying to keep track of you is worse than me keeping track of my son

Mike,

My friends, this is going to be long, so get a coffee.

I have told this story many times but I had a user about 2 decades ago who had been losing $30k per year at the window. After about 3 or 4 months with the original Thorobrain, he became a winning player. Odd thing was he discovered that, while he used to wager as much as $500 on a single horse, he now choked to bet more than $20.

He realized that while he was a known loser it was alright to bet big because, after all, he was going to lose anyway. But, as a winner, he felt obligated to bet more carefully.

Eventually he overcame this personal deficit, and began making significant deposits into his bank account as the result of horse racing.

It was at that point that he lost interest in horse racing!


What does this have to do with your post? Well, first your criticism is deserved.


I consider the people here on PA my friends. (LOL - Maybe not EVERYONE, but most of you.) Many of us literally go back 15 years or more and a few over 2 decades to the days on Prodigy. That's why I don't mind bearing my soul a little here.

I will tell you the absolute truth. For the last 2+ years I have been very burned out on horse racing. Some of it is because I finally developed a method that beats the game the way I always wanted to.

I did not make a lot of money from it. I began with $1,000 in my betting account and played $300 sessions. During this time I was playing Friday through Sunday and eventually added Thursdays as well.

After about 9 weeks, I was $3,800 ahead. (BTW, you can read about my early progress in a blog post I made here. (http://thehorsehandicappingauthority.com/turning-pro-harder-than-it-looks/) )

That was when I discovered that I really did not want to spend 4 days per week, playing 5 or 6 hours at my new J-O-B.

Since then, I must admit that horse racing was a complete drudge. (Okay, except for maybe American Pharoah. I completely enjoyed that.)

As I said, I have been completely burned out.

I have not had the spirit to build a new product in over 2 years. I have tried to latch on to a few projects to get me excited but nothing seemed to really do it.

Fortunately, for us, we have a couple of clients that we "took on a percentage basis" a few years ago which produces a very good core income. During the last year I have done a lot of custom programming within our software which allows us our lifestyle to continue.


I have been so burned out that I have even searched for another venue. It got really bad this summer. Imagine waking up every day and hating your job. (Those of you on my email list may have noticed that I have not sent a single email since June.)



I have a business coach. In fact, I actually have two of them. One I pay a lot for, the other not so much (any more) as he has become a close friend. When I went to the pay-for coach and told him my plight early this year, he said, "The industry is dead. You'll never develop an exit strategy with this business because there is just too much of you in this business."

He is right, of course. Our industry is in trouble. We all know this and feel helpless to fix it.

The second one, my coach-friend, said that he agreed with the assessment of the other guy, but suggested that I get a little more personal about this. He said that it seemed like I really wasn't having any fun.

LOL - Fun? I wanted to scream at him: "I ****ing HATE THIS!" I actually did say that. (Buy a vowel, phone a friend, count the letters; you can figure out what I said.)

Like a good therapist, which is what a friend can be, he sticks with it and says, "Don't quit what is working. Just figure out how to make it fun again."

He actually walked me through a question-and-answer session like a therapist (Which might have been my next stop - LOL).

"What makes you hate this so much?"
"When, in time, were you the happiest?"
"What were you doing?"
"What do you like about horse racing?"
"What would you miss if he quit?"

The questions were endless. At the end of it all, he said that he had been taking notes and had some suggestions to make.

Through this I was able to come to some conclusions.

First, my handicapping process was all wrong. Sure, I was winning, but it was not FUN! It was just not gratifying.

Eventually I discovered that I missed pace handicapping. REAL pace handicapping. The picking of contenders, selecting pacelines, analyzing data in my head as opposed to just slamming through races with the computer making ALL of the decisions for me.

I actually played a few days using HSH as a semi-manual handicapping program. I was building models manually, picking pacelines, selecting contenders. The result was not excellent. - LOL - I have all but forgotten how to handicap with my head. Sure, the high points are still there, but bringing it all together is very difficult. (Especially when you haven't done it in 20 years.)

I may have... dare I say it? LOST a few dollars? But I had a great time. I had forgotten that was even possible.

One other thing that came out of this was that I really miss programming. Sure, I am still programming, but writing code in the same program for 16 years is just too long. No wonder I am burned out!

Conclusion:

That was when it hit me... WHY I went into business in the first place. You see, back then I had two loves: horse handicapping and programming. That was why I started in this industry: It was what I knew and enjoyed.

So, that's really the answer:

I am going back to doing what I enjoy, pace handicapping and programming.

Over the years I have had perhaps a hundred requests to rebuild Thorobrain. It was probably the most efficient tool ever built for the handicapper - once you got the data in.


Thanks for listening.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Dave Schwartz
09-29-2015, 01:37 PM
From an old PA thread:
The fulcrum pace is the fastest second call pace among the last pacelines of all the horses in the race, provided that (1) the horse was competitive at both the second call and the finish......, and (2) the pace is not atypically fast for that horse."

Thank you. I have captured your post and will make sure it gets added.


I know you mentioned Windows 7 as a minimal requirement but would this software be able to run on Windows XP Professional.


Regarding XP: Sure. I just forgot about it. In fact, it would actually run on Windows 98, I'd expect.

Houndog
09-29-2015, 01:43 PM
Dave I know you remember Bill Burns from the days you were developing HNB.
Since you were mentioning modeling way back in 2007 myself and Andicap were discussing a readout called DA. The discussion follows:


My take on who liked it and who didn't had to do with people's expectations for software. Those that wanted a "black box" to pick their horses probably didn't like it but those who see software as a tool to crunch numbers and help organize and simplify the process loved the program because that's what Thorovision did.

They had one factor that I've tried to recreate and can't, relating to energy. I believe it was called DV or DI in the energy screen. Used properly it was one of the most amazing tools I've ever used. Bill Burns had an idea of what went into it but since Michael programmed it couldn't explain exactly how to compute it. Had to do with converting median %E to beaten lengths and putting them on a 0.0-8.0 scale.

It was a relative energy figure that measured each horse's median energy against the rest of the fields. If you eliminated abnormally slow-paced races in the PPs you could model that DI/DV? figure and eliminate short-priced favorites who didn't fit the model. It was incredible for pinpointing how a track was playing. I would pay good money to anyone who could re-create that figure. Seriously.

First I want to thank Andy and Ron for their help with my questions. Andy in the manual for Thorovision I think you are referring to Da (Distribution of Ability) which is accessed by the <ALT M> key which gets you to the Reserve Ability screen.

According to the manual the definition of DA is how does the horse prefers to distribute its ability. The earlier the horse likes to run, the lower its number. A 1.0 is the border between an early presser (EP) and presser. At 4.0 a horse is moving from presser to sustained presser (SP) and at 6.0 it's moving into sustained category- the one-run horses that aren't within striking distance at the second call.

Andy, I would agree this would be an important number to model. The DA seems similiar to the MUV (match-up variegate) which was used in Doc Sartin's Energy program. Doc suggested in the Follow-Up that this is one number you should model by track and distance. As you stated you are working with a range where high or low is not necessarily bad, but you can eliminate horses in some cases that were out of this range.

Handi,
I should have the original email I got from Bill summarizing vaguely how they computed the DA (thanks, Hounddog -- you know I don't even own a copy of the original manual. I got one copy and lost it -- d'oh!) . If its on my other PC I'll PM it to you. They absolutely did use median energy (%M) as the basis for computing the DA and backing out the lengths that were converted into the DA. Sounds like they compared %M figures -- say 68.32% and 67.70% -- and somehow converted the differences to lengths.

Mr.XXX
09-29-2015, 02:07 PM
Not to beat a dead horse, but at least having running comment / chart line + race date & class conditions helps to quickly determine current form cycle & a personally adjusted potential fig(in the case of lower fig / significant trouble) "alongside the numbers" really helps-- Timeform web pp's are kinda helpful in this direction, even though missing a few other necessary numbers.

Or in other words, how do you handicap(or hope software users do)?
Purchase pp's separately and toggle back and forth?

Maybe if you give us users some option to grab certain portions of the pp's and add them to our own customizable screen.

Please also keep in mind that some of us project our phones and tablets to computers and TV's at times, especially with wireless casting, so having the option to customize and add more things is wonderful.

At any rate, your program sounds very interesting and I keenly await it.

Dave Schwartz
09-29-2015, 02:31 PM
Not to beat a dead horse, but at least having running comment / chart line + race date & class conditions helps to quickly determine current form cycle & a personally adjusted potential fig(in the case of lower fig / significant trouble) "alongside the numbers" really helps-- Timeform web pp's are kinda helpful in this direction, even though missing a few other necessary numbers.

Of course.


Or in other words, how do you handicap(or hope software users do)?
Purchase pp's separately and toggle back and forth?


PPs will be there. Our current PPs allow for all of that and more, including expressing numbers as Sheet-style ratings, form cycle, etc. It will be at least as good.

It also allows for pulling up past charts. However, that pre-supposes that you imported that day as well.


Maybe if you give us users some option to grab certain portions of the pp's and add them to our own customizable screen.

That is not likely to happen. The programming overhead on that is just not where I choose to put my time. I'd rather put that time towards allowing you to customize your own reports. Think of it as, "I could design my own BRIS-style reports."



Please also keep in mind that some of us project our phones and tablets to computers and TV's at times, especially with wireless casting, so having the option to customize and add more things is wonderful.

Because horizontal real estate is so important in a horse handicapping program, I must design this program for desktop computers and hope it will look good IF you can get it to run on a tablet. If I do it the other way around, the program will be limited.


I just realized that when the original Thorbrain Neural Network program was around (circa 1990-94) we were running on 25MHz machines. LOL - Imagine how much faster this will be at several GHz!

Mr.XXX
09-29-2015, 03:34 PM
Really liking ALL your answers!

I can't wait for Thorobrain VII-- err your new program!

mikesal57
09-29-2015, 05:00 PM
Dave ...

Thank you for your honest and sincere answer.
I have never felt like you did about this sport because I never let it
disrupt the other aspects of my life. In this for 40 years , I can count on one hand how many times it was a profitable year. What people spend on other things in their life , I chose to bet the horses. It was my hobby and no one could say that it cause me to neglect my responsibilities and I was happy.
Good luck in getting back to what you like doing.

Mike

P.S.- A while ago Handiman said that you were giving some advise on the Handifast program. I hope that you and him can finish up this nice little program.

Dave Schwartz
09-29-2015, 05:06 PM
Handiman is coming to visit tomorrow. We have set aside time to work on his design. To be clear, it is completely his program. I am just helping him with the design a little.



Dave

mikesal57
09-29-2015, 05:17 PM
Appreciate it , Dave...
After that , why dont you take a nice vacation and soak up the sun while downing some beers...
Things will get better...

For some reason , horse racing has a stamp embedded on us for life..


Mike

crestridge
09-30-2015, 09:01 PM
Dave

Will you be able to "tackle" Hong Kong? I know, that seems impossible, but
just a "wish"/"dream". This whole program sounds exciting!! Hope all goes well for you!!

Crest

Dave Schwartz
09-30-2015, 11:21 PM
Will you be able to "tackle" Hong Kong? I know, that seems impossible, but just a "wish"/"dream". This whole program sounds exciting!! Hope all goes well for you!!


Sorry, but that would be a completely different data set and paradigm. IOW, a different program.

Mr.XXX
10-01-2015, 01:04 AM
Which you likely are already doing:

Adjusted lines to "today's exact distance" instead of generic 6F & 8F.

And to continue that, internal route to sprint with / plus the actual 2f & 4f splits of the route.
And, are you adjusting by some energy cockamamie to factor the horse would've run even faster at the shorter distance; doesn't matter if you do this latter-- just wanting to know.

A number for the portion between pace call and stretch call & number for entire distance up to that point(yes it's inexact-- but very helpful, esp. the former).

Knowing there's already 1+3 & 2+3-- would be nice to be able to toggle by "the addition of any two other such numbers columns of our choosing".

Thank you kindly.

Mr.XXX
10-01-2015, 01:05 AM
Dave

Will you be able to "tackle" Hong Kong? I know, that seems impossible, but
just a "wish"/"dream". This whole program sounds exciting!! Hope all goes well for you!!

Crest
I'm totally with you on this-- I think a poll will magically appear very soon...

Dave Schwartz
10-01-2015, 01:58 AM
Adjusted lines to "today's exact distance" instead of generic 6F & 8F.

Today's track-surf-dist


And to continue that, internal route to sprint with / plus the actual 2f & 4f splits of the route.


Of course.

And, are you adjusting by some energy cockamamie to factor the horse would've run even faster at the shorter distance; doesn't matter if you do this latter-- just wanting to know.


Plus age adjustments, maiden penalty (bet you never heard of that one), adjustment for "class," and just a plain old "I want to change this rating" adjustment.

All user-definable, as are lengths-per-second (call-by-call, if you'd like).

A number for the portion between pace call and stretch call & number for entire distance up to that point(yes it's inexact-- but very helpful, esp. the former).


In our current software we use ratings rather than feet-per-second. We have all of the possible fragments covered.


Knowing there's already 1+3 & 2+3-- would be nice to be able to toggle by "the addition of any two other such numbers columns of our choosing".

Not sure if I want to go that deep but the "Object Writer" will probably handle that for you.

How about adjustments for Jockey variants and post-position+running style? (Just a couple of the future things I have planned (i.e. not in first release).

How about Sheet-style Numbers and Form Cycle analysis?


This is going to be a tremendous program.

December 25th, under your Christmas tree. (Or Menorah.)

Partsnut
10-01-2015, 07:46 AM
Hi Dave,

Lot's of luck on your latest project.

Will your software be able to handle turf races?

Does your software put any of the Ray Taulbot angles into play?
Does it in fact incorporate any of Ray Taulbots concepts?

Will the software have access and use HDW's historiclal database to project the finish of any given race regardless of track, distance and surface?

What are the softwares limitations? What type of races can the software handle?
What type of races won't it handle?

Dave Schwartz
10-01-2015, 11:48 AM
Will your software be able to handle turf races?

Of course.

Does your software put any of the Ray Taulbot angles into play?
Does it in fact incorporate any of Ray Taulbots concepts?

Being unfamiliar with the specifics, I would have to say, no. AT least in the first release.


Will the software have access and use HDW's historiclal database to project the finish of any given race regardless of track, distance and surface?


No. All data comes from new downloads and whatever older downloads you have added to your database.

In other words, a current HSH user will will have access to his entire database, as will the new user of PMTR. (NOte: You do not get the HSH program, but the programs share some of the same file structures.)


What are the softwares limitations? What type of races can the software handle?
What type of races won't it handle?

Any Tbred race run in North America would be the logical answer. Technically, steeplechases from TBred tracks, but no quarters or Arabians.

mikesal57
10-01-2015, 12:26 PM
1) As per data files....can DRF files be used?
If not...how much will it cost us?

2) Can you run queries on today's races?
Ex:

Say you want to see all horses rank 1st in F1 & aslo have F2 <= 2nd rank & at odds >= 8

thxs

mike

LemonDropKid
10-01-2015, 12:46 PM
Dave,

Will it have the following:

1. Ability to build track model and track profile for Win, Place, Show and even Fourth place horses.

2. View track model and track profile detail for a specific time period or number of races. Some of the programs today just give you an average. I would like to see the range of the data. For example, average E/P is 2 but a look at the data shows the majority of the horses were ranked 1 or 2.

LemonDropKid

Dave Schwartz
10-01-2015, 01:19 PM
1) As per data files....can DRF files be used?
If not...how much will it cost us?

No, just HDW. By subscription or by daily download. Still working on cost.

2) Can you run queries on today's races?
Ex:

Say you want to see all horses rank 1st in F1 & aslo have F2 <= 2nd rank & at odds >= 8

Probably not quite like that, but similar. In other words, not free-form but template-driven.


1. Ability to build track model and track profile for Win, Place, Show and even Fourth place horses.


Yes, and even better than that. I am very much into metrics.

Example:

Look at a model's R2. (i.e. rank of 1 should finish 1st, rank of 2 should finish 2nd, etc.)

There will be a whole bunch of ways to interpret the model, including using the neural network.


2. View track model and track profile detail for a specific time period or number of races. Some of the programs today just give you an average. I would like to see the range of the data. For example, average E/P is 2 but a look at the data shows the majority of the horses were ranked 1 or 2.

Yes, and much more.

Example: Filtering on races with similar number of front runners or similar pace pressure. (Metrics, metrics, metrics.)

The theme is use what you want and don't even show the rest (if you don't want to). And, the software will remember your choices.

Keep the questions and ideas coming. This is a great exercise for me to make sure that nothing is left out.

I've got to say that I have not had this much fun in years. Really enjoying this new adventure.

We're going on vacation today - to visit our son in Vancouver, BC for a few days. He is a set designer on the new Planet of the Apes movie that is filming there.

atlasaxis
10-01-2015, 01:54 PM
Dave,

Will you have a BL/BL (fair odds line)? Thanks.

Tom

Dave Schwartz
10-01-2015, 02:00 PM
Will you have a BL/BL (fair odds line)? Thanks.

Yes, one driven by your choices.
IOW, there will be a "value proposition."

LottaKash
10-01-2015, 04:02 PM
I've got to say that I have not had this much fun in years. Really enjoying this new adventure.

We're going on vacation today - to visit our son in Vancouver, BC for a few days. He is a set designer on the new Planet of the Apes movie that is filming there.

Dave, if anyone can pull this one off, you would be in my top choices of minds that could do it.... I am looking forward to it's completion...Good luck with you new adventure, it should be a good one given your history with such things...

Have a good and restful vacation Dave Schwartz... :cool:

Mr.XXX
10-01-2015, 04:07 PM
I just simply cannot believe all this stuff I'm reading, I also have not had this much fun in years.
It's gonna be for me A Christmas Story, PMTR = my "official Red Ryder, carbine action, two-hundred shot range model air rifle."

BTW Congratulations on your son's success.

Years ago on the old elevated rail lines up there folks used to ride in Blazers, they'd fit just right, negating the need to use steering wheel.

Thank you, Mr. Abacano!(old deVito / Albano movie)

Partsnut
10-01-2015, 06:22 PM
Dave,

I like what you are saying and appreciate your direct responses.
My last questions would be as follows;:

1 - Will your software be web based (interactive).?

2 - If your software is interactive, can I run it and access the data files on my "Android" tablet without losing any of the features that I would normally get on my computer?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BTW, I was deeply saddened to hear about the passing of Tom Hambleton.

Capper Al
10-01-2015, 07:32 PM
Let's see who finishes their pace first, you or me in my rewrite. Good luck!

Dave Schwartz
10-01-2015, 10:55 PM
1 - Will your software be web based (interactive).?

Interactive? Of course.
Web based? No.

2 - If your software is interactive, can I run it and access the data files on my "Android" tablet without losing any of the features that I would normally get on my computer?

Only if you can run windows programs with a hard drive on your android.



Thanks for the well-wishes, guys.


We're in Vancouver now. All the way up on theplane I was programming in my head. This really is fun.

I feel like it is 1990 all over again - only better.

mikesal57
10-02-2015, 11:53 AM
No, just HDW. By subscription or by daily download. Still working on cost.






Here's the problem Dave, most people that d/l files have subscriptions already.
They are not about to add more to their expenses ( me personally ).
The only people that might benefit is your HSH users (maybe).

Also Dave , besides being a nice guy and very helpful , I don't have faith in you putting out a complete product now. Back in May you had people buzzing on something "new" and that people were looking forward to.
Now its rehashing some 20 yr old stuff that most likely end up with the other stuff you put out( Improve,Decline...New Pace )...

Mike

P.S.- I don't think I'd ever be bored if I developed something that has me making money... :confused:

Dave Schwartz
10-02-2015, 12:33 PM
Here's the problem Dave, most people that d/l files have subscriptions already.
They are not about to add more to their expenses ( me personally ).
The only people that might benefit is your HSH users (maybe).

I don't see a problem.

If you're happy where you are then you just need to stay there.

Mr.XXX
10-02-2015, 04:41 PM
Here's the problem Dave, most people that d/l files have subscriptions already.
They are not about to add more to their expenses ( me personally ).
The only people that might benefit is your HSH users (maybe).

Also Dave , besides being a nice guy and very helpful , I don't have faith in you putting out a complete product now. Back in May you had people buzzing on something "new" and that people were looking forward to.
Now its rehashing some 20 yr old stuff that most likely end up with the other stuff you put out( Improve,Decline...New Pace )...

Mike

P.S.- I don't think I'd ever be bored if I developed something that has me making money... :confused:

I'm with you on data costs.
To save a bit, I was about to try quickhorse+alldata+jcapper(w/o hdw)+fund two other adw's for different pp's.
This woulda been a MAJOR KLUDGE; besides the learning curves there would be little automation and plenty of scrolling sideways on single screens + switching between multiple ones.
And would need to reverse course on the trend to mobile & tablet, towards plenty of horsepower and screen real estate.
I'm not being cheap, I just subscribe to many other things like trip reports, data files for quarter horses, different stuff for sports.

I totally disagree about PMTR, it could be Nirvana because I now cobble together 3 softwares to handicap:

1. As much as I enjoy Pace, no product out there has been ideal.
2. Database-wise ditto-- I had an easier time with a now-defunct Foxpro-based product 20-30 years ago.

Now there's a chance for Pace software that includes everything AND its FIGS can be trusted AND is easy on the eyes AND is fairly automated AND has database features?

Heck, where do I sign up / can I pay now?

QuickHorse
10-02-2015, 07:10 PM
While waiting for Dave's product you can practice using similar concepts by downloading our QuickHorse product. And the data is free unless you want to use the pay data which is not required.

Mike

Mr.XXX
10-02-2015, 09:30 PM
While waiting for Dave's product you can practice using similar concepts by downloading our QuickHorse product. And the data is free unless you want to use the pay data which is not required.

Mike
Looks outstanding and phenomenal, never mind the $$$ advantage. I'm just scared to regress century back to that way of generating figs.

HuggingTheRail
10-03-2015, 01:48 AM
We're in Vancouver now. .


Welcome to Vancouver :)

Capper Al
10-03-2015, 07:03 AM
Welcome to Vancouver :)

Vancouver BC is my favorite city.

QuickHorse
10-03-2015, 11:39 AM
Looks outstanding and phenomenal, never mind the $$$ advantage. I'm just scared to regress century back to that way of generating figs.

What does using our product have to do with regressing 1/4 century in the way of generating figures? Has Brohamer changed the way he calculates those figures since writing his book?

Mike

Mr.XXX
10-03-2015, 03:09 PM
What does using our product have to do with regressing 1/4 century in the way of generating figures? Has Brohamer changed the way he calculates those figures since writing his book?

Mike
I don't want to hijack this thread.
No criticism, your product is more than outstanding.
And I realize the free data aspect.
I personally would prefer someone's figs or at least someone's adjusted pars/variants-- of course, this would not be free then.
But besides this, there is so much more that can be done with your software--
anyone having only basic pace software should still get your product.
Next year i will be doing a demo of how anyone can go from completely broke and on the street to $100 thousand in a year or less thru betting and investing, your software will be one of the tools prominently utilized.

Partsnut
10-04-2015, 12:43 PM
Hi Dave,

I'm not sure if anyone asked this question. If so,
I'll asked it again. :D
Are you going to offer a free trial on your software.

If not, are you going to beta test it. If so, i'd be interested.

If neither of the 2 above options are not on the drawing board, will there be an in depth video
whereas a potential customer will have some sort of an opportunity as to see how it would work for them.

Dave Schwartz
10-04-2015, 02:33 PM
Partsnut,

We will sell the software via annual subscription. There will be some videos. There will be no trial or demo. Upgrades will be included in that annual subscription cost.

Some General Concepts
I have so much to do between now and the end of December. The program will probably be released with some development left to go and PMTR will expand month-by-month in upgrades.

HSH, our current software, was (amazingly) the first Windows program I ever wrote. As such, there were a lot of initial design flaws that we've had to live with for many years. (BTW, HSH users who are downloading between now and December will have their annual fee waived.) PMTR will use the same download file as HSH.

With Pace Makes the Race, I am concentrating on planning everything up front.

Examples:

**Built-in documentation system links to all info pertaining to that topic.

**Going forward, every video or meaningful post link will be added.

**Built-in communication system that allows me to send messages and announcements of classes, videos, etc.

**Theme of videos will be SHORT. A long video would be 8 minutes.

**Getting started will be via a wizard (with documentation and videos linked directly from the Wizard).

**The program comes with several modes - Beginner, intermediate, advanced and pro. Simpler mode means less depth of choices, while more advanced modes expand the program's capability. Thus, as a beginner, you have fewer choices and less to learn. When you are ready, you step up a level to allow for more choices and capabilities.


Program Theme
The theme of the base handicapping approach is an expanded version of Howard Sartin's initial concept:

1. Select Contenders
2. Select Pacelines for those contenders.
3. Interpret the model.

Howard was a visionary in so many ways, but there are steps missing from the process he outlined. Of course, one could argue that in its day, it was so good that it was all you needed. My approach looks more like this:

*Analyze the contender model.
*Select contenders.
*Select pacelines for those contenders.
*Interpret the model.
*Apply a value approach.

The key to the success of this software will lay in its ancillary information. While we cannot push $50m in handle through the window by playing 100 races per day, we CAN compete with the whales by viewing the races through a much finer microscope, effectively doing what would be directly against the whale paradigms.

What will make this software sing is the ability to quickly display and analyze information. Imagine having precisely the information you need on the screen at the click of a button. This will be achieved by allowing the user to begin with some great reports/screens already designed and allowing the user to change the fields and spin off a new screen.

Understand that I am still a wham-bam player, and have no desire to spend 30 minutes handicapping a race. This process will take longer than the current "in-and-out-of-a-race in 3 minutes" that many HSH users employ. I would expect that around 7-10 minutes per race would be normal, but some true craftsmen might choose to spend longer.

The system comes with its own built-in registry-type system for changing settings. The higher the level of player mode (i.e. beginner, intermediate, advanced) the greater the control the user has over the variables in the system. At the highest level, just about everything is controlled by the user.

Examples:
**Application of variants
**Lengths per second (including a dynamic approach where the value of a length changes with the speed of the lead horse at this call)
**Adjustments such as "maiden penalty," age, class.
**Amount of intervention by "The Coaches" (More on that later)
**Source of speed and pace ratings (Cramer numbers, HS Pars, etc.)
**Factors shown in Good News/Bad News.

This is going to be so much fun - both to code and to play with.



Basically, my belief is that any variable that is used should be under the control of the user.

357VEGAS
10-06-2015, 12:10 AM
What programming language will you write this in?

Dave Schwartz
10-06-2015, 12:52 AM
A mixture of a couple of different languages.

Why?

357VEGAS
10-06-2015, 02:00 AM
Always curious what programming language people use to develop software in. Plus I have a friend that is a very good programmer that is looking for work. He programs in c++ and MySQL.

Capper Al
10-06-2015, 11:34 AM
Dave,

I'm about half way done with my pace module. How are you doing with your pace software?

Dave Schwartz
10-06-2015, 02:07 PM
Clarion (to connect back to HSH data files, etc) and WinDev.

C++ Development is just too time consuming for me.

Sly7449
10-06-2015, 07:13 PM
Dick Schmidt.

Dave,

I like what you are saying and appreciate your direct responses.
My last questions would be as follows;:

1 - Will your software be web based (interactive).?

2 - If your software is interactive, can I run it and access the data files on my "Android" tablet without losing any of the features that I would normally get on my computer?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BTW, I was deeply saddened to hear about the passing of Dick Schmidt and Tom Hambleton.
Dick Schmidt has to have been fairly recent.?

Dave Schwartz
10-06-2015, 07:18 PM
Dick Schmidt is alive and kicking. Tom Hambleton has passed.

Capper Al
10-07-2015, 02:44 PM
Clarion (to connect back to HSH data files, etc) and WinDev.

C++ Development is just too time consuming for me.

Whatever method works for you. Are you half way done?

Dave Schwartz
10-08-2015, 03:31 PM
Actually, I am making great progress.

I will have the internet activation, accounting, communication and documentation systems done by around the 15th, so that I can get back to the actual program itself.

So, Al, how are you doing with YOUR activation, accounting and cos systems?

Oh, wait. You aren't building those.

Sorry, my bad.

:rolleyes: :D

Capper Al
10-08-2015, 04:16 PM
Actually, I am making great progress.

I will have the internet activation, accounting, communication and documentation systems done by around the 15th, so that I can get back to the actual program itself.

So, Al, how are you doing with YOUR activation, accounting and cos systems?

Oh, wait. You aren't building those.

Sorry, my bad.

:rolleyes: :D

The joy of not having to do that for others. All my efforts are focused on pace and my day job.

357VEGAS
10-09-2015, 02:25 AM
Dave,

I've never used a pace program before. I do use Tom Brohamer pace figures for Southern California, have to write down manually. Is your program something like he does but automated?

mikesal57
10-09-2015, 10:48 AM
Dave,

I've never used a pace program before. I do use Tom Brohamer pace figures for Southern California, have to write down manually. Is your program something like he does but automated?

Hey Dave ...you wont need bait on this hook... :D

Dave Schwartz
10-09-2015, 12:30 PM
I've never used a pace program before. I do use Tom Brohamer pace figures for Southern California, have to write down manually. Is your program something like he does but automated?

It is very much based upon Tom Brohamer's approach, but because of the computing power, we can do a lot more. We can also do it with far more accuracy.

I, too, used to do everything manually. It is just very time (and energy) consuming. Simply wears a guy out.

So, the idea is:

1) Less work, more enjoyment
2) better solutions
3) better results

Dan Montilion
10-09-2015, 07:56 PM
I believe 375Vegas is referencing Brohamer's Quirin pace and final rating service. I get the feeling Dave is referencing Brohamer's satin, feet per second approach. Of course I could be wrong.

Capper Al
10-09-2015, 09:25 PM
There should be a market for Tom Brohamer's approach. A lot of weekend worriers would like to have his methods at their finger tips.

357VEGAS
10-09-2015, 10:52 PM
It's interesting, I'm more of a trainer study kind of handicapper. I believe what has happened in the past will happen in the future. But I would like to use a program as long as I can pick the pace line to compare. It's the mix. Always interested how people handicap. So many different approaches. SO many ways to win.

thaskalos
10-10-2015, 01:31 AM
It's interesting, I'm more of a trainer study kind of handicapper. I believe what has happened in the past will happen in the future. But I would like to use a program as long as I can pick the pace line to compare. It's the mix. Always interested how people handicap. So many different approaches. SO many ways to win.
"So many ways to win"...but 99% of us can't even find ONE.

Dave Schwartz
10-10-2015, 06:27 AM
I believe 375Vegas is referencing Brohamer's Quirin pace and final rating service. I get the feeling Dave is referencing Brohamer's satin, feet per second approach. Of course I could be wrong.

Both are choices in this software.

It's interesting, I'm more of a trainer study kind of handicapper. I believe what has happened in the past will happen in the future. But I would like to use a program as long as I can pick the pace line to compare. It's the mix. Always interested how people handicap. So many different approaches. SO many ways to win.

Trainer stats are an integral part of my approach. But they are almost worthless without some method that takes the stats and boils it down to a single number, otherwise it is just too complex a problem. You can just build a case in so many different directions.

Mr.XXX
11-05-2015, 05:03 PM
Partsnut,

We will sell the software via annual subscription. There will be some videos. There will be no trial or demo. Upgrades will be included in that annual subscription cost.

Some General Concepts
I have so much to do between now and the end of December. The program will probably be released with some development left to go and PMTR will expand month-by-month in upgrades.

HSH, our current software, was (amazingly) the first Windows program I ever wrote. As such, there were a lot of initial design flaws that we've had to live with for many years. (BTW, HSH users who are downloading between now and December will have their annual fee waived.) PMTR will use the same download file as HSH.

With Pace Makes the Race, I am concentrating on planning everything up front.

Examples:

**Built-in documentation system links to all info pertaining to that topic.

**Going forward, every video or meaningful post link will be added.

**Built-in communication system that allows me to send messages and announcements of classes, videos, etc.

**Theme of videos will be SHORT. A long video would be 8 minutes.

**Getting started will be via a wizard (with documentation and videos linked directly from the Wizard).

**The program comes with several modes - Beginner, intermediate, advanced and pro. Simpler mode means less depth of choices, while more advanced modes expand the program's capability. Thus, as a beginner, you have fewer choices and less to learn. When you are ready, you step up a level to allow for more choices and capabilities.


Program Theme
The theme of the base handicapping approach is an expanded version of Howard Sartin's initial concept:

1. Select Contenders
2. Select Pacelines for those contenders.
3. Interpret the model.

Howard was a visionary in so many ways, but there are steps missing from the process he outlined. Of course, one could argue that in its day, it was so good that it was all you needed. My approach looks more like this:

*Analyze the contender model.
*Select contenders.
*Select pacelines for those contenders.
*Interpret the model.
*Apply a value approach.

The key to the success of this software will lay in its ancillary information. While we cannot push $50m in handle through the window by playing 100 races per day, we CAN compete with the whales by viewing the races through a much finer microscope, effectively doing what would be directly against the whale paradigms.

What will make this software sing is the ability to quickly display and analyze information. Imagine having precisely the information you need on the screen at the click of a button. This will be achieved by allowing the user to begin with some great reports/screens already designed and allowing the user to change the fields and spin off a new screen.

Understand that I am still a wham-bam player, and have no desire to spend 30 minutes handicapping a race. This process will take longer than the current "in-and-out-of-a-race in 3 minutes" that many HSH users employ. I would expect that around 7-10 minutes per race would be normal, but some true craftsmen might choose to spend longer.

The system comes with its own built-in registry-type system for changing settings. The higher the level of player mode (i.e. beginner, intermediate, advanced) the greater the control the user has over the variables in the system. At the highest level, just about everything is controlled by the user.

Examples:
**Application of variants
**Lengths per second (including a dynamic approach where the value of a length changes with the speed of the lead horse at this call)
**Adjustments such as "maiden penalty," age, class.
**Amount of intervention by "The Coaches" (More on that later)
**Source of speed and pace ratings (Cramer numbers, HS Pars, etc.)
**Factors shown in Good News/Bad News.

This is going to be so much fun - both to code and to play with.



Basically, my belief is that any variable that is used should be under the control of the user.
The latter part of Program Theme sounds very exciting.
And if it also means the individual columns of any screen can be dragged n rearranged, beautiful...
I realize this is very simplistic...I'm looking for a way to compensate for not being able to see the pp lines n adjusted numbers / key stats together(or customizing my own pp's)...avoiding having to click back and forth.

Re the reports, could we theoretically come up with our own custom query combining whatever factors/fields?

Dave Schwartz
11-05-2015, 05:35 PM
Re the reports, could we theoretically come up with our own custom query combining whatever factors/fields?

Truthfully, I am avoiding that much complexities. Frankly, I have that now it it just becomes TOO MUCH.


Think, instead, of a list of available factors that you can arrange.


Not completely ruling out the kind of flexibility that you are speaking of but I am really trying to avoid "scope creep." If I let MY imagination run wild I will have another HSH and it just overwhelms the typical player.

If you're the kind of guy who wants lots of factors and flexibility, then HSH with its 4,000 factors per horse is possibly for you. This new software must be a very dialed-down version. Like 2 magnitudes dialed-down.

Capper Al
11-05-2015, 06:10 PM
I think you are going to have your pace app done before my pace module is finished. Wow., the complications that I ran into.

Tom
11-05-2015, 09:52 PM
"Scope creep?" :eek:

Dave Schwartz
11-05-2015, 10:27 PM
"Scope creep?"

LOL - Yes. That's where I commit to a "simple-to-use program and suddenly you have to have a PhD to run it.

Dick Schmidt
11-06-2015, 01:14 AM
Well,I do like the title. Dave talked to me about this a couple of weeks ago and it looks like he is making great progress. Sinse a small part of this program is based on ideas I helped to develop, may I offer my 2 cents worth?

1) Keep it simple is a great idea. Most computer guys want to keep piling on more and more factors to find the perfect horse. Doesn't exist, or if it does it pays $2.20. No matter what you do, you are going to lose 70% of your bets, so look for the ones the public misses. A model is a great tool for this.

2) Don't use "fuzzy" concepts like the Fulcrum or Match Up. You have to hold your mouth just right to get either to work and even then they only work sometimes.

3) Trainer stats are over rated. It's the horse that is running, not the trainer. Assuming that every trainer is trying to win (and if you don't beleive this, got out of racing) then what the horse can do is far more important than who trains it. Of course a bad trainer can hurt a horse, but no one can make a horse better than it is (chemical training excepted).

4) Like all athletes, horse have form cycles. Again, this is where pace line selection and the Model become paramont. On the other hand, it is rare for a horse to show a dramatic improvement on a really bad race last out without a very clear excuse. I almost never saw a horse win that wasn't rated in the top five from the last pace lne.

Good luck with the project Dave. If it functions like most of Dave's software, it will have a steep learning curve but will win a lot of money.

Dick

Test ideas by experiment and observation.
Build on those ideas that pass the tests.
Reject the ones that fail.
Follow the evidence wherever it leads.
Question everything.
Accept these terms and the cosmos is yours. -- Neil deGrasse Tyson

Tom
11-06-2015, 08:41 AM
LOL - Yes. That's where I commit to a "simple-to-use program and suddenly you have to have a PhD to run it.

Oh!
I thought it had to do with a colonoscopy!:eek:

mikesal57
11-06-2015, 08:56 AM
:ThmbUp: to Dave on getting a post from Mr. Schmidt

Dave Schwartz
11-06-2015, 10:17 AM
Oh!
I thought it had to do with a colonoscopy!

:lol: :lol: :lol:

raybo
11-06-2015, 12:33 PM
Well,I do like the title. Dave talked to me about this a couple of weeks ago and it looks like he is making great progress. Sinse a small part of this program is based on ideas I helped to develop, may I offer my 2 cents worth?

1) Keep it simple is a great idea. Most computer guys want to keep piling on more and more factors to find the perfect horse. Doesn't exist, or if it does it pays $2.20. No matter what you do, you are going to lose 70% of your bets, so look for the ones the public misses. A model is a great tool for this.

2) Don't use "fuzzy" concepts like the Fulcrum or Match Up. You have to hold your mouth just right to get either to work and even then they only work sometimes.

3) Trainer stats are over rated. It's the horse that is running, not the trainer. Assuming that every trainer is trying to win (and if you don't beleive this, got out of racing) then what the horse can do is far more important than who trains it. Of course a bad trainer can hurt a horse, but no one can make a horse better than it is (chemical training excepted).

4) Like all athletes, horse have form cycles. Again, this is where pace line selection and the Model become paramont. On the other hand, it is rare for a horse to show a dramatic improvement on a really bad race last out without a very clear excuse. I almost never saw a horse win that wasn't rated in the top five from the last pace lne.

Good luck with the project Dave. If it functions like most of Dave's software, it will have a steep learning curve but will win a lot of money.

Dick

Test ideas by experiment and observation.
Build on those ideas that pass the tests.
Reject the ones that fail.
Follow the evidence wherever it leads.
Question everything.
Accept these terms and the cosmos is yours. -- Neil deGrasse Tyson

Great post Dick! Agree, except that most of us believe that some horses (cheaper animals mostly) are entered with the hope of improving for future races, not necessarily to win this one.

Capper Al
11-06-2015, 03:42 PM
"Scope creep?" :eek:

Scope creep and debugging, time killers.

UltimateBetter
11-08-2015, 05:22 PM
U have too think like a trainer at times to hit these real longshots I've bet on horse off the layoff just for the heck and on decent numbers or form from previous race see if was a maiden I could go on on but u have too understand racing angles to win.

andicap
11-08-2015, 06:05 PM
(sigh)
I pretty much gave up on recreating this screen. Last time I saw Bill Burns he could only vaguely remember how D.A. was compiled. Basically had to do with converting those energy figures to velocity figures. D.A. worked especially well with H.P.- "Herd Position," where the horse was running in his best races.

After establishing a model with D.A., horses would win at a good clip with double-digit prices. The trick, though, was to block races with unusually slow paces as they would distort the model.

ThoroVision was a great piece of software.




Dave I know you remember Bill Burns from the days you were developing HNB.
Since you were mentioning modeling way back in 2007 myself and Andicap were discussing a readout called DA. The discussion follows:W


My take on who liked it and who didn't had to do with people's expectations for software. Those that wanted a "black box" to pick their horses probably didn't like it but those who see software as a tool to crunch numbers and help organize and simplify the process loved the program because that's what Thorovision did.

They had one factor that I've tried to recreate and can't, relating to energy. I believe it was called DV or DI in the energy screen. Used properly it was one of the most amazing tools I've ever used. Bill Burns had an idea of what went into it but since Michael programmed it couldn't explain exactly how to compute it. Had to do with converting median %E to beaten lengths and putting them on a 0.0-8.0 scale.

It was a relative energy figure that measured each horse's median energy against the rest of the fields. If you eliminated abnormally slow-paced races in the PPs you could model that DI/DV? figure and eliminate short-priced favorites who didn't fit the model. It was incredible for pinpointing how a track was playing. I would pay good money to anyone who could re-create that figure. Seriously.

First I want to thank Andy and Ron for their help with my questions. Andy in the manual for Thorovision I think you are referring to Da (Distribution of Ability) which is accessed by the <ALT M> key which gets you to the Reserve Ability screen.

According to the manual the definition of DA is how does the horse prefers to distribute its ability. The earlier the horse likes to run, the lower its number. A 1.0 is the border between an early presser (EP) and presser. At 4.0 a horse is moving from presser to sustained presser (SP) and at 6.0 it's moving into sustained category- the one-run horses that aren't within striking distance at the second call.

Andy, I would agree this would be an important number to model. The DA seems similiar to the MUV (match-up variegate) which was used in Doc Sartin's Energy program. Doc suggested in the Follow-Up that this is one number you should model by track and distance. As you stated you are working with a range where high or low is not necessarily bad, but you can eliminate horses in some cases that were out of this range.

Handi,
I should have the original email I got from Bill summarizing vaguely how they computed the DA (thanks, Hounddog -- you know I don't even own a copy of the original manual. I got one copy and lost it -- d'oh!) . If its on my other PC I'll PM it to you. They absolutely did use median energy (%M) as the basis for computing the DA and backing out the lengths that were converted into the DA. Sounds like they compared %M figures -- say 68.32% and 67.70% -- and somehow converted the differences to lengths.

Partsnut
11-11-2015, 10:47 AM
Originally quoted by Dick Schmidt

2) Don't use "fuzzy" concepts like the Fulcrum or Match Up. You have to hold your mouth just right to get either to work and even then they only work sometimes.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dick, you are right on point and just wanted to praise your response and advice.
I have always respected your honesty and openess. You say it how it is.
I was never and will never be a proponent of "Voodoo Handicapping". In my humble opininion,
the concept is ridiculous and an insult to one's intelligence. :bang:

My apologies to you for being mislead on what Dave had written in the beginning of this thread. I was glad to hear that you are well and still with us. :)

Houndog
11-11-2015, 03:02 PM
(sigh)
I pretty much gave up on recreating this screen. Last time I saw Bill Burns he could only vaguely remember how D.A. was compiled. Basically had to do with converting those energy figures to velocity figures. D.A. worked especially well with H.P.- "Herd Position," where the horse was running in his best races.

After establishing a model with D.A., horses would win at a good clip with double-digit prices. The trick, though, was to block races with unusually slow paces as they would distort the model.

ThoroVision was a great piece of software.

Dave I understand that this is not a priority was just wondering if you had any comments.

Dave Schwartz
11-11-2015, 05:30 PM
As the saying goes, "If you can hum it, I can play it."

As of now I do not have enough information to discuss it intelligently.

If you will describe the approach well enough for me to understand, I will be happy to consider it.

Send along or post whatever documentation for this.

Capper Al
11-11-2015, 06:17 PM
Still coding. Have no idea how much more it will take to finish my pace module. I have my money on Dave to finish first.

Speed Figure
11-11-2015, 06:30 PM
Still coding. Have no idea how much more it will take to finish my pace module. I have my money on Dave to finish first.
What are you coding? have you ever showed a screen shot of your program?

Houndog
11-11-2015, 06:34 PM
As the saying goes, "If you can hum it, I can play it."

As of now I do not have enough information to discuss it intelligently.

If you will describe the approach well enough for me to understand, I will be happy to consider it.

Send along or post whatever documentation for this.

The only thing I have is the original THOROVISION manual. Not sure what I can extract from that to make it worthwhile. I have it around somewhere and I will send any useful information along to you.

Thanks for your response.

Dave Schwartz
11-11-2015, 06:38 PM
Whatever you want will ultimately need to be explained (by you) and understood (by me).

Houndog
11-11-2015, 06:45 PM
Whatever you want will ultimately need to be explained (by you) and understood (by me).

Understood. It seems to me you will have enough for users to work with what you are doing now. This may in fact be a "Fuzzy Factor" that was mentioned by another poster which would be difficult to model.

I will go over the manual and try.

Capper Al
11-12-2015, 11:01 AM
What are you coding? have you ever showed a screen shot of your program?

My app is private that's why you haven't seen it. It doesn't have all the bells and whistles that the commercial stuff has. It's a C++ app that dumps processed data in a csv file to be picked up and inputted into an Excel spreadsheet. I'm just having fun with Dave. Programming most of the time takes longer than expected.

Speed Figure
11-12-2015, 11:58 AM
My app is private that's why you haven't seen it. It doesn't have all the bells and whistles that the commercial stuff has. It's a C++ app that dumps processed data in a csv file to be picked up and inputted into an Excel spreadsheet. I'm just having fun with Dave. Programming most of the time takes longer than expected.
I have my own handicapping software too, but I have posted screen shots of races a lot of times. There are many that claim to have these homegrown programs, but never post a single screen shot. Always saying my program does this & that, but never show anything.

UltimateBetter
11-12-2015, 12:02 PM
U are so right never I never seen a pic of your software.

Speed Figure
11-12-2015, 12:13 PM
U are so right never I never seen a pic of your software.
Here are some past posting.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1861542&postcount=19
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1870070&postcount=13
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1830305&postcount=5
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1754826&postcount=4

Partsnut
11-12-2015, 12:22 PM
Originally quoted by Dick Schmidt

1) Keep it simple is a great idea. Most computer guys want to keep piling on more and more factors to find the perfect horse. Doesn't exist, or if it does it pays $2.20. No matter what you do, you are going to lose 70% of your bets, so look for the ones the public misses. A model is a great tool for this.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The quoted statement could not have come from a more knowledgeable, accomplished and experienced player.
I interpret his quote as a direct referral to win betting and it eludes to betting just one horse per race.
There is no mention of multiple horse betting either to win or in the exotics.

I was taught early on and from my 60 years of experience that one horse win betting was the only way to beat the game.

I know, there are some of you that will disagree and that's your perogative. However, in my lifes travel, I have never come across anyone that could prove to me that 2 horse betting and multiple exotic bets with or without a plethera of horses was or could be profitable.

Hopefully, Daves new software will be focused on win betting of just one horse per race.

JimG
11-12-2015, 06:12 PM
Here are some past posting.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1861542&postcount=19
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1870070&postcount=13
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1830305&postcount=5
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1754826&postcount=4

Nice looking, clean display Speed. Continued success with your program.

Jim

shoelessjoe
11-12-2015, 09:30 PM
Parts,

Nice shades

Speed Figure
11-13-2015, 04:46 AM
Nice looking, clean display Speed. Continued success with your program.

Jim
Thanks Jim! just added 4 new rating for projecting pace, late, speed and performance.

Capper Al
11-13-2015, 04:52 AM
Nice work Speed Fig. Good luck using it.

Capper Al
11-13-2015, 04:57 AM
Originally quoted by Dick Schmidt

1) Keep it simple is a great idea. Most computer guys want to keep piling on more and more factors to find the perfect horse. Doesn't exist, or if it does it pays $2.20. No matter what you do, you are going to lose 70% of your bets, so look for the ones the public misses. A model is a great tool for this.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The quoted statement could not have come from a more knowledgeable, accomplished and experienced player.
I interpret his quote as a direct referral to win betting and it eludes to betting just one horse per race.
There is no mention of multiple horse betting either to win or in the exotics.

I was taught early on and from my 60 years of experience that one horse win betting was the only way to beat the game.

I know, there are some of you that will disagree and that's your perogative. However, in my lifes travel, I have never come across anyone that could prove to me that 2 horse betting and multiple exotic bets with or without a plethera of horses was or could be profitable.

Hopefully, Daves new software will be focused on win betting of just one horse per race.

Well, I don't know about win betting only. But getting too complicated is something I'm struggling with now with my pace profile module. I'm generating too much output to interpret.

MPRanger
11-13-2015, 05:15 PM
Originally quoted by Dick Schmidt

2) Don't use "fuzzy" concepts like the Fulcrum or Match Up. You have to hold your mouth just right to get either to work and even then they only work sometimes.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dick, you are right on point and just wanted to praise your response and advice.
I have always respected your honesty and openess. You say it how it is.
I was never and will never be a proponent of "Voodoo Handicapping". In my humble opininion,
the concept is ridiculous and an insult to one's intelligence. :bang:

My apologies to you for being mislead on what Dave had written in the beginning of this thread. I was glad to hear that you are well and still with us. :)




That's interesting.

Not to be argumentative but I'm interested in why you guys think this.

When you say it only works sometimes, what do you mean it "works"? I'm certain you both know exactly what it is. Please don't think I'm being a smart ass. I mean this in the most respectful way. I'd like to hear your ideas. What is your concept of what it is supposed to accomplish?

I could be completely wrong but I think I have read in the past where Mr. Schmidt acknowledged it's usefulness in separating contenders/non contenders. Don't remember where I read that but I think I did.

Generally whatever ratings you use come from a single horse in a single race. Not from all the horses in today's race. That's fine and useful. But the fulcrum provides a common standard to compare the horses in today's race against each other.

I understand you can use a standardized number like :45 in a sprint vs the actual defined fulcrum but even that is a common measuring tool. Do you not think it is useful?

I signed up for Black Magic a couple of months ago but before I was making my own ratings. I was balancing the speed figure against the fulcrum instead of the final time. I found it very useful. Very strong.

If there is something here to be learned from your experience. I'm open to it.

Thanks.

Partsnut
11-13-2015, 10:03 PM
Hi,

I have no fault with the "fulcrum horse" or "Black Magic".
The fulcrum horse was used in The Master Magician as well.
It seems that someone is always building and selling a better mousetrap.
Black Magic was the better mousetrap
At least that's what they want you to believe.
If it works for you consistently, then by all means, use it.
In my experience with most software it is a hit or miss proposition and as
Dick Schmidt said "they work sometimes".

If you are looking for consistecy in a software..........forget about it. :bang:
There is no magic bullet. I don't care how much you paid for it. :lol:

Jim Bradshaws Match Up concept could never adequately be explained, at least not to me. As for me, the word "Fuzzy" is overly kind. I never could associate mysticism to the projection of a horse race.

If you look for the horse that the crowd misses and win about 30% of your races you may be fortunate enough to garner a 15 - 30% ROI over the long haul. This is and always has been my bottom line.
In todays world and the way the race cards are structured with short fields and all, it may difficults for most to achieve this.

thaskalos
11-13-2015, 10:21 PM
If you look for the horse that the crowd misses and win about 30% of your races you may be fortunate enough to garner a 15 - 30% ROI over the long haul. This is and always has been my bottom line.


With the number of races available to us on an everyday basis...can't we get rich with a long-term ROI of 15-30%?

MPRanger
11-13-2015, 11:10 PM
Makes sense. Thanks.

Partsnut
11-14-2015, 08:59 AM
With the number of races available to us on an everyday basis...can't we get rich with a long-term ROI of 15-30%?

Anything is possible.
In my estimation, possibly 2% of the betting public will make money.
So if you are very disciplined, find the right races at the right prices, bet them according to your bankroll and win 3 out of10, you may have a shot.

If you are a commercial software user be aware most of the providers will cover themselves by telling you that their software is just a tool and the responsiblity is on the user. :eek:

One must take into account the money they might have to spend on the software and data files. Not to mention the video tapes, updates, seminars and whatever else comes with learning your software. :bang: Of course deep pockets always helps. :D

MPRanger
11-14-2015, 12:47 PM
If you are a commercial software user be aware most of the providers will cover themselves by telling you that their software is just a tool and the responsiblity is on the user. :eek:



They shouldn't have to tell you that as it goes without saying.

If you buy a car, you still have to drive it. But it sure is a lot easier than walking 25 miles.

Partsnut
11-14-2015, 03:26 PM
They shouldn't have to tell you that as it goes without saying.

If you buy a car, you still have to drive it. But it sure is a lot easier than walking 25 miles.

Repectfully, If you buy a car it still has to work or you end up walking anyway.
A car is warrantied to work. If Software doesn't work then you own it. There are no warranties.

MPRanger
11-14-2015, 04:24 PM
Repectfully, If you buy a car it still has to work or you end up walking anyway.
A car is warrantied to work. If Software doesn't work then you own it. There are no warranties.


"Software has to work"

Doesn't that come down to what you expect the software to do?

I was hammering out my ratings by typing data into spreadsheets
and basic programs I have written. In fact I have a trail of both
going back years. After doing five or six races it becomes a drag for me.

Ultimately, my ratings were not intended to pick the winner of a race or
the order of finish but to create an odds line based on the ratings and
other factors.

I'm still very new to Black Magic and I don't really have the feel for the
odds lines it makes. Still experimenting with different ways it let's me do
that. But to me, that is the point of it, to make an odds line. And even if
it makes a different line than one I might come up with, Michael Pizzola
explains it well as a "consistent judgmental base". An odds line can be
described as a base line.

Even doing it my way, as opposed to the ways I'm learning, I can still use
the program to save time and effort. Also, I have always used the racing
form or simulcast book. Downloading the files makes my life so much
easier. I know many here probably usually download files. I wish I had
been doing that all along.

I understand your point though. I agree with you. No program is going to
spit out profitable winning plays. It IS a tool as the developers will tell
you as you have pointed out.

Thanks for your comments.

raybo
11-14-2015, 05:50 PM
Repectfully, If you buy a car it still has to work or you end up walking anyway.
A car is warrantied to work. If Software doesn't work then you own it. There are no warranties.

Any piece of racing software that is not publicized as a "black box", is just a tool. That is a given. If someone does not call theirs a black box, but rather only claims that its top pick in a certain rating is a long term profitable method, then beware, it is also just a tool, not a black box. None of the main stream softwares out there today, is anything other than a tool. As far as I know, my program is the only "black box" being advertised as such. And, even mine can, optionally, be used as a tool, rather than as a black box method, if the user so chooses. If win play is not your thing then you might not want to use it as a black box, but rather as a tool, that is automated and displays the horse rankings in many different ways, pick and choose.

Black Magic is about Michael Pizzola's philosophy, value playing, and his new one coming out will be called "Value Capping". But, Michael has used Black Magic for finding value plays, for a very long time. It was never a black box, and never intended to be one. You hardly ever hear him mention the fulcrum horse in his "Rants" videos. It is just a benchmark anyway. I really like the speed/automation in Black Magic, but would never pay that much for a racing tool. I suppose, if the odds line is a really, really, good one, it might be worth the investment however. One could use a very good odds line to make lots of money.

Tom
11-14-2015, 06:00 PM
Repectfully, If you buy a car it still has to work or you end up walking anyway.
A car is warrantied to work. If Software doesn't work then you own it. There are no warranties.

If I buy a power saw at Walmart and try to make bookshelves with it, the results will be vastly different than if a trained carpenter buys the same saw.

thaskalos
11-14-2015, 06:11 PM
Any piece of racing software that is not publicized as a "black box", is just a tool. That is a given. If someone does not call theirs a black box, but rather only claims that its top pick in a certain rating is a long term profitable method, then beware, it is also just a tool, not a black box. None of the main stream softwares out there today, is anything other than a tool. As far as I know, my program is the only "black box" being advertised as such. And, even mine can, optionally, be used as a tool, rather than as a black box method, if the user so chooses. If win play is not your thing then you might not want to use it as a black box, but rather as a tool, that is automated and displays the horse rankings in many different ways, pick and choose.

Black Magic is about Michael Pizzola's philosophy, value playing, and his new one coming out will be called "Value Capping". But, Michael has used Black Magic for finding value plays, for a very long time. It was never a black box, and never intended to be one. You hardly ever hear him mention the fulcrum horse in his "Rants" videos. It is just a benchmark anyway. I really like the speed/automation in Black Magic, but would never pay that much for a racing tool. I suppose, if the odds line is a really, really, good one, it might be worth the investment however. One could use a very good odds line to make lots of money.

They may not call them "black boxes", Ray...but some of this sophisticated handicapping software out there is advertised as being capable of supplying a "profitable odds line"...which is supposed to make money when matched up against the odds that we see on the board. The gullible customer buys this "sophisticated handicapping software", but finds that the odds-line that this program spits out isn't as good as advertised. And, when he voices his complaints to the "merchant"...he is told that the fault lies in the user's "past performance line selection". The user supposedly is picking the "wrong representative race"...even though, when the MERCHANT explains this "race-selection" process...it's a very straight-forward and simple affair.

The method is "simple" when it works...but "complicated" when it fails. :rolleyes:

raybo
11-14-2015, 06:48 PM
They may not call them "black boxes", Ray...but some of this sophisticated handicapping software out there is advertised as being capable of supplying a "profitable odds line"...which is supposed to make money when matched up against the odds that we see on the board. The gullible customer buys this "sophisticated handicapping software", but finds that the odds-line that this program spits out isn't as good as advertised. And, when he voices his complaints to the "merchant"...he is told that the fault lies in the user's "past performance line selection". The user supposedly is picking the "wrong representative race"...even though, when the MERCHANT explains this "race-selection" process...it's a very straight-forward and simple affair.

The method is "simple" when it works...but "complicated" when it fails. :rolleyes:

Understand, but the top mainstream softwares out there don't require the user to select pacelines at all, so the odds line is produced completely within the program's processes. The line is either good or not. If you've watched any of Pizzola's "Rants", he uses his software's line, as a starting point, and depending on the ranking and comparative ability of horses, will either accept that line or require a premium on it. His software also tries to project what the public will make the final odds.

I've never seen, or heard of, a commercially available oddsline that is worth a flip, straight out of the box. The user must make it a good one, if he/she has that ability. :bang:

thaskalos
11-14-2015, 09:06 PM
Understand, but the top mainstream softwares out there don't require the user to select pacelines at all, so the odds line is produced completely within the program's processes. The line is either good or not. If you've watched any of Pizzola's "Rants", he uses his software's line, as a starting point, and depending on the ranking and comparative ability of horses, will either accept that line or require a premium on it. His software also tries to project what the public will make the final odds.

I've never seen, or heard of, a commercially available oddsline that is worth a flip, straight out of the box. The user must make it a good one, if he/she has that ability. :bang:

That's true...but some of the "merchants" tell a different story. Even as early as 25 years ago...a much-esteemed handicapper/mathematician/businessman (now deceased) was selling expensive (but worthless) hand-held handicapping calculators...which were advertised as being capable of turning the "gambler" into an "investor"...without any complicated input needed from the player. I know...because I bought one of them.

I remember thinking...if this is how the ESTEEMED merchants operate...no wonder the game has the reputation that it is stuck with.

raybo
11-14-2015, 09:32 PM
That's true...but some of the "merchants" tell a different story. Even as early as 25 years ago...a much-esteemed handicapper/mathematician/businessman (now deceased) was selling expensive (but worthless) hand-held handicapping calculators...which were advertised as being capable of turning the "gambler" into an "investor"...without any complicated input needed from the player. I know...because I bought one of them.

I remember thinking...if this is how the ESTEEMED merchants operate...no wonder the game has the reputation that it is stuck with.

Unfortunately, you are correct about what happened in the past, and I'm sure some of that is still going on today. But, my hope is that we, as intelligent players, can see through the obvious hype, and the cherry picked races they use to support their claims. I have only bought one program in my whole racing life, and the only reason I bought that one was so I could print out the code in order to aid in my programming my own racing program (on a Tandy ColorTrac II, using cassette tape to store and run the program code). I never believed any of the fantastic claims from the hawker, but the code was worth the price ($49.95 I think). That code allowed me to write a program I wouldn't have been able to do over any acceptable time frame. But, the premise of that software, regarding horse racing, was amateurish and absurd. It took Excel for me to create a "real" piece of racing software, one that actually displayed things properly, and could actually make decisions similar to what I would make on a race by race basis.

Nowadays, programming languages are much more sophisticated and powerful, and a lot faster to code. Much of the code already exists, on the internet. So, I suppose there are some people selling sophisticated looking programs today, that are pretty much worthless in substance. Buyer beware! The good stuff is obvious (and usually carries a very steep learning curve), and if it's not obvious to lots of people, then it's probably not worth a penny.

Boulder
11-20-2015, 12:27 AM
Dave,

Any update on when your program will be done?

Thanks

Boulder

Dave Schwartz
11-20-2015, 12:40 AM
I expect to deliver the beta on Dec 25th. It will be available for ordering a couple of weeks before, when I am confident that I can make that date.

Thank you for asking.


Dave

Sinner369
11-20-2015, 01:33 AM
Dave I hope this new software is different from the other software(s) including your own HSH software.

Otherwise, is not worth looking at nor worth purchasing.

Partsnut
11-20-2015, 09:31 AM
Dave I hope this new software is different from the other software(s) including your own HSH software.

Otherwise, is not worth looking at nor worth purchasing.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

:lol: Did you have other then good results using either his or any other software?
Please tell us about your experiences. :lol:
Did you really expect to pick winners with these or did you purchase a tool. :bang:

What do you expect from the purchase of any horse race handicapping software?

Dave Schwartz
11-20-2015, 12:43 PM
Partsnut,

The typical hater is a guy who has never purchased anything from me.

Don't waste your breath.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

mikesal57
11-20-2015, 12:59 PM
Are you guys attacking our most prominent business man ????

Let go over whats happening....

A light bulb goes off and a Great New Idea is born... :lol:

So in a few months a new ( so called) software is created....

but don't ask for any big time proof ...

and get ready for updates...

Then , of course, it goes by the wayside like everything else..

You never hear from current user bragging or giving out any plays or info coming from his products..

I don't understand how a "Authorized Advertiser" continues to plagued
this board with non sense .
There are other AA that have stand by their products and haven't the need
to brag or push anything on us for years.

Just shaking my head...

Tom
11-20-2015, 01:27 PM
Push on us?
Never felt pushed into anything.
I appreciate he OFFERS us things, some of which I buy, some I don't.
Never bought anything I did not find useful.

mikesal57
11-20-2015, 01:40 PM
Push on us?
Never felt pushed into anything.
I appreciate he OFFERS us things, some of which I buy, some I don't.
Never bought anything I did not find useful.


I have bought some things too ....

Read the opening posts on his bright ideas...

and tell me its not something I/we must have...

Dr Gonzo
11-20-2015, 01:59 PM
It never ceases to amaze me how a certain Authorized Advertiser seems to have so many shills on this board.

cbp
11-20-2015, 02:08 PM
It never ceases to amaze me how a certain Authorized Advertiser seems to have so many shills on this board.

No shills. Just losers that have invested a ton of money over an extended period of time buying handicapping aids. The have all the books, gadgets, programs, figures, etc. We can trace the source of most to Sartin

And what they all have in common is county of residence: MONACO. That's right, they win so much that they need the tax break. :lol:

Put it another way: ever read anything remotely puerile, let alone of substance, pertaining to racing from Schwartz? Why then would you buy anything from him? I just keep wondering :bang:

His next posted winner will be his first

raybo
11-20-2015, 02:38 PM
I have bought some things too ....

Read the opening posts on his bright ideas...

and tell me its not something I/we must have...

The fact is, good tools will work for some, but not others. It's not necessarily the tool that is the problem, it's the user's ability to understand and use it properly that makes the difference.

raybo
11-20-2015, 02:46 PM
It never ceases to amaze me how a certain Authorized Advertiser seems to have so many shills on this board.

He has "so many shills on this board" because he's been around here a long time, as have many other members of the forum, and those of us who have been around here a while, and have had personal exchanges with Dave, know that he knows what the heck he's talking about.

You, on the other hand, have not been around long, nor obviously, had personal conversations with him, and probably have never even watched one of his webinars, or checked out any of his products. Nowhere will you find Dave saying that any of his products will make you profitable, that is up to you to make happen. Tools are only good tools when in good hands.

Dr Gonzo
11-20-2015, 02:50 PM
He has "so many shills on this board" because he's been around here a long time, as have many other members of the forum, and those of us who have been around here a while, and have had personal exchanges with Dave, know that he knows what the heck he's talking about.

You, on the other hand, have not been around long, nor obviously, had personal conversations with him, and probably have never even watched one of his webinars, or checked out any of his products. Nowhere will you find Dave saying that any of his products will make you profitable, that is up to you to make happen. Tools are only good tools when in good hands.

Thank you for proving my point.

raybo
11-20-2015, 02:51 PM
No shills. Just losers that have invested a ton of money over an extended period of time buying handicapping aids. The have all the books, gadgets, programs, figures, etc. We can trace the source of most to Sartin

And what they all have in common is county of residence: MONACO. That's right, they win so much that they need the tax break. :lol:

Put it another way: ever read anything remotely puerile, let alone of substance, pertaining to racing from Schwartz? Why then would you buy anything from him? I just keep wondering :bang:

His next posted winner will be his first

I've never purchased a thing from Dave. But, I have gotten some very good ideas from watching a few of his webinars and reading some of the articles on his site. If you want someone to post picks for you, go to the selections section, there are tons of picks to choose from. Good, luck with that, by the way! ;)

raybo
11-20-2015, 02:55 PM
Thank you for proving my point.

Well, I wasn't really trying to prove that you're acting like an idiot, but then I didn't need to prove it, you've already done that yourself.

Dr Gonzo
11-20-2015, 03:01 PM
Well, I wasn't really trying to prove that you're acting like an idiot, but then I didn't need to prove it, you've already done that yourself.

Oh my, an internet tough guy armed with a speadsheet. I'm really scared now :eek:

raybo
11-20-2015, 03:04 PM
Oh my, an internet tough guy armed with a speadsheet. I'm really scared now :eek:

Scaring you wasn't my intention. Pointing out that you are acting like an idiot was. Once again, you proved that yourself.

NorCalGreg
11-20-2015, 03:06 PM
Dave I hope this new software is different from the other software(s) including your own HSH software.

Otherwise, is not worth looking at nor worth purchasing.



The typical hater is a guy who has never purchased anything from me.
Don't waste your breath.
Regards,
Dave Schwartz

This man calmly stated his short opinion of your product, Dave. Is this really your FIRST unsatisfied customer? For this completely MINOR transgression....in your world, the guy is labeled a
HATER?

The ridiculous twitter-ization of American continues.

Dave Schwartz
11-20-2015, 03:07 PM
Yes, Greg.

Never purchased software from me.

Dr Gonzo
11-20-2015, 03:11 PM
Scaring you wasn't my intention. Pointing out that you are acting like an idiot was. Once again, you proved that yourself.

And you have proved that I am correct about a certain authorized advertiser having shills on this board. If you think you can bait me into a name calling contest, forget it. I'm an adult. Welcome to my ignore list.

Capper Al
11-20-2015, 03:50 PM
Dave is the best. I have purchased his PDF's and videos which were pretty good. Matter of fact, his P&P 2012 is always at my side in the man cave. Besides all this, he gives away free stuff and does free seminars. What else could you ask of a guy?

If I hear this latest offer right, it about a guy who needs their own quick pace figures. There's a market for that.

LottaKash
11-20-2015, 03:50 PM
And you have proved that I am correct about a certain authorized advertiser having shills on this board. .

Perhaps you've mistakenly confused the word shills with "Friends", and ones that have much respect for Dave, both, as a person, and a handicapper....

Dr Gonzo
11-20-2015, 03:58 PM
Perhaps you've mistakenly confused the word shills with "Friends", and ones that have much respect for Dave, both, as a person, and a handicapper....

And perhaps you fail to see what is right before your eyes.

Tom
11-20-2015, 04:22 PM
No shills. Just losers that have invested a ton of money over an extended period of time buying handicapping aids. The have all the books, gadgets, programs, figures, etc. We can trace the source of most to Sartin

And what they all have in common is county of residence: MONACO. That's right, they win so much that they need the tax break. :lol:

Put it another way: ever read anything remotely puerile, let alone of substance, pertaining to racing from Schwartz? Why then would you buy anything from him? I just keep wondering :bang:

His next posted winner will be his first

Pardon my French, but a what useless DICK you are.
Dave contributes to this board - and you who contribute ZERO mock him out. I take it back, you're LESS THAN useless. You know nothing about him or his customers yet you come off like your some kind of expert. Expert JERK at best. :ThmbDown::ThmbDown::ThmbDown:

cbp
11-20-2015, 04:23 PM
I've never purchased a thing from Dave. But, I have gotten some very good ideas from watching a few of his webinars and reading some of the articles on his site. If you want someone to post picks for you, go to the selections section, there are tons of picks to choose from. Good, luck with that, by the way! ;)

Really? I do fine on my own.

Let's do this: find some posts by Jeff Platt; pre and post race comments. Dude knows his shit. Or go over to HTR and read some analysis by Massa. Dude knows his shit.
Or, even, the dude over at pace n cap. He also knows his shit. Schwartz is dwarfed by them. He has no interesting racing opinions. If you know the game, you immediately realize it.

Of course, he's significantly better at marketing than the others. Then again, they win more and don't need to sell as much.

Tom
11-20-2015, 04:23 PM
And perhaps you fail to see what is right before your eyes.

Perhaps what you see as reality is distorted because your head is so far up your ass.

LottaKash
11-20-2015, 04:28 PM
And perhaps you fail to see what is right before your eyes.

Just what am I/We supposed to be seeing ?... Shills ?...

I think that you are wrong here, especially about Dave, that's all...

Hey, if someone wants to commend and recommend, based on their experiences with any of Dave's products, well, that is not being a shill, imo, Is that what you are seeing, good experiences being reported ?

I have never purchased any of Dave's material either...I just steal a lot of free "brain food" from him....Thank's Dave... :ThmbUp:

Dr Gonzo
11-20-2015, 04:37 PM
Just what am I/We supposed to be seeing ?... Shills ?...



From dictionary.com :

Shill :
a person who publicizes or praises something or someone for reasons of self-interest, personal profit, or friendship or loyalty.

If you're not seeing any of that in here, I've nothing else to say to you.

cbp
11-20-2015, 04:50 PM
Pardon my French, but a what useless DICK you are.
Dave contributes to this board - and you who contribute ZERO mock him out. I take it back, you're LESS THAN useless. You know nothing about him or his customers yet you come off like your some kind of expert. Expert JERK at best. :ThmbDown::ThmbDown::ThmbDown:

You're a spiteful, FAT man. You've probably spent as much on racing products over the past 30 years than you have on BIG GULPS. It's fine.

But this hasn't made you a winner. And, these products won't make others winners either. You and the others can
try to rope others in. If you bought it, why shouldn't they! And, of course, someone with a dissenting view has no place in the discussion. Spend your money. Others know better.

LottaKash
11-20-2015, 05:00 PM
From dictionary.com :

Shill :
a person who publicizes or praises something or someone for reasons of self-interest, personal profit, or friendship or loyalty.

If you're not seeing any of that in here, I've nothing else to say to you.

Same here smarty pants... :D

Dr Gonzo
11-20-2015, 05:07 PM
Same here smarty pants... :D

Can't defend yourself so start name calling ..... did you learn how to do that from reading Ephesians ?

LottaKash
11-20-2015, 05:26 PM
Can't defend yourself so start name calling ..... did you learn how to do that from reading Ephesians ?

Hey, if the phone doesn't ring, then you'll know it's me.... :p

Tom
11-20-2015, 10:10 PM
You're a spiteful, FAT man. You've probably spent as much on racing products over the past 30 years than you have on BIG GULPS. It's fine.

But this hasn't made you a winner. And, these products won't make others winners either. You and the others can
try to rope others in. If you bought it, why shouldn't they! And, of course, someone with a dissenting view has no place in the discussion. Spend your money. Others know better.

You know nothing about it. You are nothing but an ignorant troll. Period.
You do not have a dissent view, you have a big mouth and a lot of trash talk. But no substance. Jerks like you come and go. You have probably come and gone a few times already. Of course a product will not make you a winner, but winners will use those products as tools, as Raybo said, who btw is a far more intelligent posted that you are. I suspect at one time you tried HSH and were too stupid to win with it. That's ok, a man has got to know his limits. Yours seem to be easy enough to find.

raybo
11-20-2015, 11:15 PM
And you have proved that I am correct about a certain authorized advertiser having shills on this board. If you think you can bait me into a name calling contest, forget it. I'm an adult. Welcome to my ignore list.

That's great, will save me from having to put you on mine. Oh and by the way, I never called you names, I said you were "acting like an idiot", not "you are an idiot" There's a big difference, one cannot be helped, the latter, the former can be, and should be.

You posted the word "shill" I was just quoting you. "Shill" is pretty strong language, even for you. Rather than "shills", I'd say we are people who realize quality, experience, and knowledge when we see it. That is what Dave symbolizes to us. It wouldn't matter if he was an authorized advertiser here or not, that opinion wouldn't change. You haven't been around long enough to know anything about him, or his products. But, you think you know enough to call his products worthless, and call people "shills" who respect him as a member, a player, and a creator of fine products.

If you don't want to purchase anything from him, then don't, it's that simple.

raybo
11-20-2015, 11:40 PM
Really? I do fine on my own.

Let's do this: find some posts by Jeff Platt; pre and post race comments. Dude knows his shit. Or go over to HTR and read some analysis by Massa. Dude knows his shit.
Or, even, the dude over at pace n cap. He also knows his shit. Schwartz is dwarfed by them. He has no interesting racing opinions. If you know the game, you immediately realize it.

Of course, he's significantly better at marketing than the others. Then again, they win more and don't need to sell as much.

I know quite a bit about Jeff (have spoken and emailed with him several times, one of the reasons he formatted JCapper/HDW files in the Brisnet single file format was so his JCapper users could use them in my AllData program for further research purposes), and Ken, and Ted and Richie, too. And I know quite a bit about Dave also, having talked and otherwise communicated with him several times.

Why don't you do this: go to his site and watch some of his webinars, and read some of his articles (they're all free). There is a lot of racing knowledge there, and lots of wagering insight, and lots of quality innovative handicapping ideas and products. You, obviously, have no idea of who or what Dave Schwarz is. You might want to find out before you bash him, or products you've never personally checked out, or tried yourself.

raybo
11-20-2015, 11:50 PM
From dictionary.com :

Shill :
a person who publicizes or praises something or someone for reasons of self-interest, personal profit, or friendship or loyalty.

If you're not seeing any of that in here, I've nothing else to say to you.

And yet, Webster's has this as a definition:

1 shill
intransitive verb \ˈshil\
: to talk about or describe someone or something in a favorable way because you are being paid to do it


To call someone a "shill", rather than something that more accurately, and unambiguously, describes them, especially in the context you put it in, is an extreme insult, and an untruth. Dave doesn't pay anybody here to promote himself or his products, he pays Mike for the permission to promote his own products. he contributes not only personally to this forum, he also helps to keep it online and active, monetarily. Without authorized advertisers, Pace Advantage might not have even been here when you so recently joined.

Partsnut
11-21-2015, 09:22 AM
Originally Posted by cbp
Really? I do fine on my own.

Let's do this: find some posts by Jeff Platt; pre and post race comments. Dude knows his shit. Or go over to HTR and read some analysis by Massa. Dude knows his shit.
Or, even, the dude over at pace n cap. He also knows his shit. Schwartz is dwarfed by them. He has no interesting racing opinions. If you know the game, you immediately realize it.

Of course, he's significantly better at marketing than the others. Then again, they win more and don't need to sell as much.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I
I'll agreee with you on HTR (Ken Massa) and Jeff Platt (JCapper) but I would vigorously disagree with you on your choice of Paceand Cap.
You have to realize that each one of the afformentioned people make their living on their software and will market it in the best way they can.

Dave Schwartz has been around for at least 30 years that I know of and has been a respected and accomplished member of the horse racing community.
He is an excellent programmer and very knowlegeable horse racing enthusiast that has produced and marketed his own par times, written books and produced software that many praise and use. he is a super marketer and that my friend, is all to his credit.
He is also a very strong supporter of this board.
He knows what the horse player wants and gives it to them.

Let's stop the insults. It's a waste of good energy.
If you don't like his products then don't buy them. It's as simple as that.

You can bring a horse to water but you can't make him drink.
So in that spirit "let the buyer beware" and lets get on with our lives.

I believe Dave will come out with a winner that will be affordable to all.
He, if anyone, is smart enough to accomplish this.

BTW, I am not a schill and do not of have not used his products other then his par times, so many years ago, I will however, intelligently make a decision on his new offering.
If It appeals to me then I will go for it.


.

Sinner369
11-21-2015, 10:14 AM
Yes, Greg.

Never purchased software from me.

Dave you are dead wrong...........I purchased three or four products from you............And I was not even criticizing the new product.........all I was trying to do was inquiring as to see if the new product is totally different than a software like HSH or other programs that pick contenders for you.

I am not criticizing something that I have not seen nor used.........all I was trying to do was inquiring "what does the new product do that is different that other software programs".

bcgreg
11-21-2015, 10:36 AM
Dave I hope this new software is different from the other software(s) including your own HSH software.

Otherwise, is not worth looking at nor worth purchasing.

Sounds pretty critical to me.

Dave Schwartz
11-21-2015, 12:59 PM
all I was trying to do was inquiring "what does the new product do that is different that other software programs".

I think it is safe to say that any software product I produce will be vastly different than anything else out there.



Friends, may I suggest that we get back to the topic at hand. namely the development of a software product that YOU would want to use?

I actually wrote to NorCal Greg who started a thread about getting custom programming done.

I want everyone to know that I do requests all the time. When someone presents me with an idea it falls into one of several categories:

1. It is a idea that many people will want.
2. It is a idea that some people may want.
3. It is a idea that very few people will want.
4. It is an idea that nobody will want except you.

#1 gets added to the programming agenda. No cost.
#2 gets added to the programming agenda. Small cost.
#3 gets added to the programming agenda. Half cost.
#4 gets added to the programming agenda. Full cost.


A. You are willing to share the idea with others.
B. You do not want anyone but you to have the idea.

All type-B items become a #4.


So, if you have ideas that fall into the #1A category, share them here. Or send me an email.

mikesal57
11-21-2015, 02:32 PM
perfect!!

a post on what you can do and probable expense

No trumpets, drum rolls , or 21 gun salutes...

When and if you finish your product a simple post and link will be sufficient in the "Software" thread..

I'm sure you'll get more to your site this way and less abuse here..

mike

Capper Al
11-21-2015, 02:57 PM
I figure after Thanksgiving I be back to coding pace in my rewrite. Had to take a break and work on speed for a while. It's going to be close on who gets done first with their pace.

mikesal57
11-21-2015, 03:06 PM
how much is yours?

Dave Schwartz
11-21-2015, 03:12 PM
I'm sure you'll get more to your site this way and less abuse here

You have lowered yourself to "nagging troll."

But please do keep popping this thread to the top with your childish wit.

I recall the detractor known as Rook from years back. Every time he spouted his anger at me he'd mention how he'd made several hundred thousand dollars the year before using the numbers from my software. Every time he did that my cash register rang.


The haters will always be here. Can't fix that and there is no point in arguing with them.

Of course, if you have an honest beef why don't you simply post it for all to see?

mikesal57
11-21-2015, 03:42 PM
not a "nagging troll"....

just a "rich" nagging troll with my CD Picks....with a free software

:cool:

kingfin66
11-21-2015, 03:48 PM
Very disappointing thread. :confused:

Tom
11-21-2015, 06:20 PM
Agree, KF.....it is amazing how many jealous loser are out there.
I would think if one were winning half what they claim, they would be too busy cashing tickets to make utter asses out of themselves. And on top of that, they somehow know just how good everyone else is doing.

Yet none of them ever have anything of any value to add, just troll poop in the threads.

mikesal57
11-21-2015, 08:04 PM
Sorry guys

Been cleaning up at Churchill

What did I miss?

kingfin66
11-21-2015, 09:11 PM
Agree, KF.....it is amazing how many jealous loser are out there.
I would think if one were winning half what they claim, they would be too busy cashing tickets to make utter asses out of themselves. And on top of that, they somehow know just how good everyone else is doing.

Yet none of them ever have anything of any value to add, just troll poop in the threads.

I don't know what is going on Tom. I thought I was going to be reading lots of cool stuff that is going on with Dave's new software. Instead, I get to read that:

Those who respect Dave and his work are "shills."

Attacks on Dave.

People calling you fat.

Raybo getting hammered and somebody actually putting him on ignore. Probably a first for that one!

Disappointing is the word that came to mind. If we are lucky, the mods will clean it up.

steveb
11-21-2015, 09:13 PM
Perhaps what you see as reality is distorted because your head is so far up your ass.

when i went to see springsteen in melbourne aust. a few years back, he reckons that "us americans can't pronounce arse because of our american accents, and that is why we say ass."
is not an ass your average american racing horse?:lol:

cbp
11-21-2015, 10:14 PM
All the buy-everything-in-sight winners are in Monaco, the haven for those looking for a tax break. Tom has won so much, with all the programs he's purchased, that he regularly dines with the royal family. It's gourmet food and the best wine for Tom. And then he woke up, in armpit upstate NY, with a Little Caesar's pie and 5 BIG GULPS. The HIGHLIFe we're all envious of :lol:

Anyone can have it by buying some of Dave's stuff

Dave Schwartz
11-21-2015, 10:29 PM
I thought I was going to be reading lots of cool stuff that is going on with Dave's new software.

Indeed.

Perhaps I should try to get that ball rolling.

From a development standpoint (for the programmer audience), I have been concentrating on writing a ton of functions. My general rule of thumb is that if I am going to need it more than once, it needs to be in a function. (Any programmer can tell you how much discipline it takes to live up to such a commitment.)

For non-coders that means, never write the same piece of code twice. It also means that the going is slower in the beginning because it takes a little more effort to write a function with 5 lines of code that it does to write the 5 lines of code, but, eventually, the entire 5 lines (or 50 lines) is replicated with a single line!


From a Features and Benefits standpoint, I am writing this FIRST from the standpoint that most users will NOT BE DOWNLOADERS and will be working with a minimum of data.

Basic race and entry data is brought into the program from one of several FREE programs/entry pages out there. The process is for the user to copy the page and paste it into the software, which then parses it into individual races. Thus, each card is copied and pasted (i.e. if you were handicapping 5 tracks, then you'll need those 5 pages).

This is done at least for the first provider. Other providers will likely be added after the beta is released.


Next comes the data. How do you get REAL data into the software?

There are initially 2 options:

1) Enter by hand
or
2) HDW downloads

Since #2 is very obvious, I will concentrate on #1.

Let's begin by understanding the nature of the data that YOU might want to use. Here are a few examples. Please add your suggestions for what else you might want. (Suggestions like BRIS single-file format will not work because there is no sustainable business model there for anyone except BRIS.)

Examples:
A. I am a Sartin-type player. I want to select contenders, pick pacelines, build models.

It would be nice if the program remembered past races I have entered so that I never have to enter a paceline more than once.

I'd like some very cool ways to analyze the models.

It would be nice if there was an artificial intelligence engine in place to help with the interpretation of the models.

I do not want to become a "database administrator" and have to "manage" large databases.

Sometimes I look at BRIS-type reports. It would be nice if I could integrate those into the program.


B. I use other programs (perhaps more than one) and I want to bring the output of those programs together into one place to build probabilities, models, databases, etc.

Sometimes I look at BRIS-type reports. It would be nice if I could get those reports to appear inside the program.

Sometimes I use a spreadsheet. It would be nice if I could import some of the data from my spreadsheet directly into the software.


C. I buy picks. I also use free picks. What I'd like to do is track those picks, by track, surface, distance, type of race, etc. and see how good they are.


D. I will use HDW downloads but I want to do all of the above things sometimes.



These are examples of what you can expect.


Please add to the discussion with your requests and ideas. The earlier I plan for them, the easier it will be to accomplish them.

Speed Figure
11-21-2015, 10:42 PM
Indeed.

Perhaps I should try to get that ball rolling.

From a development standpoint (for the programmer audience), I have been concentrating on writing a ton of functions. My general rule of thumb is that if I am going to need it more than once, it needs to be in a function. (Any programmer can tell you how much discipline it takes to live up to such a commitment.)

For non-coders that means, never write the same piece of code twice. It also means that the going is slower in the beginning because it takes a little more effort to write a function with 5 lines of code that it does to write the 5 lines of code, but, eventually, the entire 5 lines (or 50 lines) is replicated with a single line!


From a Features and Benefits standpoint, I am writing this FIRST from the standpoint that most users will NOT BE DOWNLOADERS and will be working with a minimum of data.

Basic race and entry data is brought into the program from one of several FREE programs/entry pages out there. The process is for the user to copy the page and paste it into the software, which then parses it into individual races. Thus, each card is copied and pasted (i.e. if you were handicapping 5 tracks, then you'll need those 5 pages).

This is done at least for the first provider. Other providers will likely be added after the beta is released.


Next comes the data. How do you get REAL data into the software?

There are initially 2 options:

1) Enter by hand
or
2) HDW downloads

Since #2 is very obvious, I will concentrate on #1.

Let's begin by understanding the nature of the data that YOU might want to use. Here are a few examples. Please add your suggestions for what else you might want. (Suggestions like BRIS single-file format will not work because there is no sustainable business model there for anyone except BRIS.)

Examples:
A. I am a Sartin-type player. I want to select contenders, pick pacelines, build models.

It would be nice if the program remembered past races I have entered so that I never have to enter a paceline more than once.

I'd like some very cool ways to analyze the models.

It would be nice if there was an artificial intelligence engine in place to help with the interpretation of the models.

I do not want to become a "database administrator" and have to "manage" large databases.

Sometimes I look at BRIS-type reports. It would be nice if I could integrate those into the program.


B. I use other programs (perhaps more than one) and I want to bring the output of those programs together into one place to build probabilities, models, databases, etc.

Sometimes I look at BRIS-type reports. It would be nice if I could get those reports to appear inside the program.

Sometimes I use a spreadsheet. It would be nice if I could import some of the data from my spreadsheet directly into the software.


C. I buy picks. I also use free picks. What I'd like to do is track those picks, by track, surface, distance, type of race, etc. and see how good they are.


D. I will use HDW downloads but I want to do all of the above things sometimes.



These are examples of what you can expect.


Please add to the discussion with your requests and ideas. The earlier I plan for them, the easier it will be to accomplish them.
When will you have screen shots available?

Delta Cone
11-21-2015, 10:47 PM
Lets say I'm sitting around one day and I grab on old DRF from a month back... will I be able to enter in a bunch of pace lines from that form so that next time I might encounter those horses my data entry for those races is already done?

raybo
11-21-2015, 10:58 PM
All the buy-everything-in-sight winners are in Monaco, the haven for those looking for a tax break. Tom has won so much, with all the programs he's purchased, that he regularly dines with the royal family. It's gourmet food and the best wine for Tom. And then he woke up, in armpit upstate NY, with a Little Caesar's pie and 5 BIG GULPS. The HIGHLIFe we're all envious of :lol:

Anyone can have it by buying some of Dave's stuff

People like you can never say things like that to someone's face, in the real world, because they'd soon get their face smashed in, or worse (probably worse), so they join forums and spread their filth and vile, anonymously. What a wasted use of time and energy, and what a lonely, pathetic life they must live. Ignorance and lack of backbone cannot be hidden long, in the real world, hope you have your running shoes on, you'll be needing them very soon, once again, cowards face that dilemma constantly. You've offered nothing positive to this forum since you joined, only extreme stupidity, negativity, and hate, you deserve what's coming to you.

Delta Cone
11-21-2015, 11:22 PM
Since you asked, here's how I envision using the software...

I'm primarily a weekend player; I follow southern California racing closely, but also keep an eye on NY, FL, KY and IL at various times.

I'd like to be able to grab a DRF and manually enter data for a handful of pacelines for each horse for a couple of tracks on a Saturday (while building up a database so data entry efforts lessen as time passes).

Hopefully the data entry process is easy. Since I only follow a couple of circuits, its not too much work, and I actually enjoy doing it. I just don't have the need to download massive amounts of data. One or two tracks, a few races a day to enter, keep it simple.

Friday night I'd get the DRF, enter the missing pacelines as necessary, then handicap the card as I usually do.

I tend to get lost in paralysis-by-analysis if there are too many numbers. I use the DRF and love the Beyer figs, they provide the framework for my understanding of the game. But too often I get lost looking at fractional times, pace figures, etc.

I also understand that pace is critical and there are many situations that reveal pace figures to be superior to final time figures. I'd like to keep my traditional (and probably antiquated) :confused: method of pen and paper and DRF...but I'd also like to supplement it with some pace analysis in the vein of Modern Pace Handicapping.

Tom
11-21-2015, 11:30 PM
All the buy-everything-in-sight winners are in Monaco, the haven for those looking for a tax break. Tom has won so much, with all the programs he's purchased, that he regularly dines with the royal family. It's gourmet food and the best wine for Tom. And then he woke up, in armpit upstate NY, with a Little Caesar's pie and 5 BIG GULPS. The HIGHLIFe we're all envious of :lol:

Anyone can have it by buying some of Dave's stuff

Wow, can you be any more of a child?
Hiding behind an internet fake name, too much of a coward to use your real name, pretending your are winner while acting like a total ass, or arse as the other ass calls it. Wassup with that? Afraid that NAMBLA will track your down and demand those past dues? Now hop your girl's bike and peddle it on out of here.

DeltaLover
11-21-2015, 11:45 PM
Indeed.

Perhaps I should try to get that ball rolling.

From a development standpoint (for the programmer audience), I have been concentrating on writing a ton of functions. My general rule of thumb is that if I am going to need it more than once, it needs to be in a function. (Any programmer can tell you how much discipline it takes to live up to such a commitment.)

For non-coders that means, never write the same piece of code twice. It also means that the going is slower in the beginning because it takes a little more effort to write a function with 5 lines of code that it does to write the 5 lines of code, but, eventually, the entire 5 lines (or 50 lines) is replicated with a single line!


Dave, what you are saying here is only scratching the surface.

What is more important that the implementation of the functionality of your code (something that is also known as definition), is the declaration of the contracts that need to implemented. Ideally, you need to declare your interfaces in a platform neutral way, assuring the interoperability with any piece of complying software, favoring an IoC approach versus any kind of static binding. Early approaches of this concept can be found in IDL and its related ecosystems (like COM or CORBA), while today the preferred way is almost always a Web Service implemented on top of SOAP of more frequently REST.

Modern data access APIs are often delivered as RESTfull APIs (usually described as micro-services) an approach that allows developers to build on top of specific Interfaces while not caring at all about the lower lever details that are never exposed making refactoring easy and cheap.

As an example of what I am trying to say here, think about the par times that I have purchased from you earlier this year. The way you are delivering these data, is by bundling it to some huge files that I later had to understand their structure, write a script to insert them in my databases and also write a component to make them accessible to my higher lever code. If you were using a REST API, my job as a developer would had been way simpler and efficient, since I would only need to know the routes to call and I would never had to alter my database schema, understand the details of the structure and write database related code to load them in run time.

Dave Schwartz
11-22-2015, 12:13 AM
Lets say I'm sitting around one day and I grab on old DRF from a month back... will I be able to enter in a bunch of pace lines from that form so that next time I might encounter those horses my data entry for those races is already done?

Yes.

Let's say that today is Jan 15.

You enter horse A that raced in AQU 1st race on Jan 1. When you entered the data for that paceline, you had to enter info about the race (i.e. surface, distance, times, etc.) and then information about the horse - lengths behind, etc.

On Jan. 22, Horse A runs back. All of that paceline info is already there and, when you enter the date, track, race number, it will grab it.

Also on Jan 22, Horse B runs back from that same race on Jan 1st. You have never entered him into the system before. However, when you enter the date, track, race number it will grab the surface, distance, times, etc. so that you only have to enter the paceline info for this horse.

In other words, it remembers whatever you entered so that you never have to enter a race twice.

Think about what happens if you bought a day of data for Jan 22 (about $9 for the entire country). When you import the data for Jan 22, it sucked in every race that any horse on that day had a paceline for and kept it forever!

Dave Schwartz
11-22-2015, 12:32 AM
Ideally, you need to declare your interfaces in a platform neutral way, assuring the interoperability with any piece of complying software

Sorry, but that is just not feasible for so many reasons.



I'd like to be able to grab a DRF and manually enter data for a handful of pacelines for each horse for a couple of tracks on a Saturday (while building up a database so data entry efforts lessen as time passes).

Hopefully the data entry process is easy. Since I only follow a couple of circuits, its not too much work, and I actually enjoy doing it. I just don't have the need to download massive amounts of data. One or two tracks, a few races a day to enter, keep it simple.

Friday night I'd get the DRF, enter the missing pacelines as necessary, then handicap the card as I usually do.

I tend to get lost in paralysis-by-analysis if there are too many numbers. I use the DRF and love the Beyer figs, they provide the framework for my understanding of the game. But too often I get lost looking at fractional times, pace figures, etc.

I also understand that pace is critical and there are many situations that reveal pace figures to be superior to final time figures. I'd like to keep my traditional (and probably antiquated) method of pen and paper and DRF...but I'd also like to supplement it with some pace analysis in the vein of Modern Pace Handicapping.

A good and reasonable approach: to integrate multiple data sources.

I call this approach Hybrid Handicapping. I expect that this will become a catch-phrase someday.

The idea is that you will be able to change things up in your handicapping and lose nothing.


One thing I really hope for is to integrate other software, Eventually (certainly not anywhere near first release), I hope to have a Software Development Kit (SDK) available so that other vendors will be able to export to a CSV which will easily be read into PMTR.

Earlier this year, when we were measuring the possibility of doing a free program, I sketched out a lot of possibilities. (Perhaps someone can find that thread.) Ultimately, reality set in and it became apparent that the free model simply would not work. Most of those features will wind up in this software eventually.

I know everyone loves the idea of "free." Of course, nothing is actually free. Somehow, at some time, the company producing has to make money. If the company does not make money then there is nobody around to fix bugs, add features and, in general create continuity.

HSH is a very mature piece of software. Do you realize that we've been selling it for over 16 years! No software should last that long. And yet, the core users keep telling me, "Please don't stop developing it!"


BTW, I keep using that word - "eventually" - that is because I just do not know how far I will get for the scheduled delivery date. Christmas comes on quite fast when it is almost Thanksgiving.


Also, I will be putting up a Thanksgiving sale beginning Monday. Almost everything in the store will be 30%-40% off. Your support will be greatly appreciated.

Capper Al
11-22-2015, 08:44 AM
how much is yours?

Mine is not for sale. It's for fun.

whodoyoulike
11-22-2015, 07:02 PM
...
Earlier this year, when we were measuring the possibility of doing a free program, I sketched out a lot of possibilities. (Perhaps someone can find that thread.) Ultimately, reality set in and it became apparent that the free model simply would not work. Most of those features will wind up in this software eventually.

I know everyone loves the idea of "free." Of course, nothing is actually free. Somehow, at some time, the company producing has to make money. If the company does not make money then there is nobody around to fix bugs, add features and, in general create continuity. ...

Thanks for the update.

I was just thinking about this because you had previously been shooting for it being ready prior to the BC races and was recently wondering about it's status.

whodoyoulike
11-22-2015, 07:07 PM
Sorry guys

Been cleaning up at Churchill

What did I miss?

I saw your selection thread picks and results. But, the question I have is why not also state how you would've bet your selections when posting instead of reporting the price results after the races had been run?

mikesal57
11-22-2015, 07:52 PM
I saw your selection thread picks and results. But, the question I have is why not also state how you would've bet your selections when posting instead of reporting the price results after the races had been run?
Check my Saratoga selections
Somewhere I put how I bet
I have made a few changes but that's for me only :)

Mike

whodoyoulike
11-22-2015, 08:18 PM
Check my Saratoga selections
Somewhere I put how I bet
I have made a few changes but that's for me only :)

Mike

Saratoga??

Wasn't that over a number of months ago?

I was looking at your CD selections yesterday. Like I stated, I don't understand why people (not just you) have posted selections (I think you posted 4 per race) but don't note how they would've wagered those selections. After all you've already posted your selections. After the race, they can come back and state what changes were made and why and the prices.

TonyK@HSH
11-22-2015, 09:11 PM
I've had the pleasure of knowing Dave since the mid-90's. He's a quality man who has made significant contributions to the business of 'handicapping', especially to my handicapping.
When I met Dave I thought my handicapping skills were good. But I knew my skills were not good enough to make me a consistent winner. I loved this business, spent countless hours in the form but didn't have a complete game.
At that time, Dave offered handicapping products, monthly newsletters, betting concepts and most importantly his ear. Dave was willing to talk horses with me anytime I asked. Through the years I incorporated many of Dave's ideas into my handicapping and realized continuous improvement.
For years now, I've been fortunate enough to make 100% of my income from a business that I truly love being a part of. And I can honestly say that Dave played a big part in changing my life. To be fair, not all of my income is derived from wagers. I am also a 'part time' agent, working with young riders. But the majority of my income is earned through the windows.
One may not agree with Dave's handicapping theories, his marketing campaigns, his tendency to bite off more than he can chew- but one cannot dispute the contributions Dave has made to our game or his love for this game or his love for people and baseball. Lol
Dave, you helped me achieve a level of satisfaction in my life that I probably don't deserve. Thanks for that but mostly thanks for being a friend!!

TonyK

cbp
11-22-2015, 09:31 PM
I've had the pleasure of knowing Dave since the mid-90's. He's a quality man who has made significant contributions to the business of 'handicapping', especially to my handicapping.
When I met Dave I thought my handicapping skills were good. But I knew my skills were not good enough to make me a consistent winner. I loved this business, spent countless hours in the form but didn't have a complete game.
At that time, Dave offered handicapping products, monthly newsletters, betting concepts and most importantly his ear. Dave was willing to talk horses with me anytime I asked. Through the years I incorporated many of Dave's ideas into my handicapping and realized continuous improvement.
For years now, I've been fortunate enough to make 100% of my income from a business that I truly love being a part of. And I can honestly say that Dave played a big part in changing my life. To be fair, not all of my income is derived from wagers. I am also a 'part time' agent, working with young riders. But the majority of my income is earned through the windows.
One may not agree with Dave's handicapping theories, his marketing campaigns, his tendency to bite off more than he can chew- but one cannot dispute the contributions Dave has made to our game or his love for this game or his love for people and baseball. Lol
Dave, you helped me achieve a level of satisfaction in my life that I probably don't deserve. Thanks for that but mostly thanks for being a friend!!

TonyK


Ummm, Dave made you a winner many years ago but by his own admission he didn't win until a few years ago when one of his clients clued HIM in. Is that that fuzzy logic I read about? :lol:

Dave Schwartz
11-22-2015, 11:34 PM
Ummm, Dave made you a winner many years ago but by his own admission he didn't win until a few years ago when one of his clients clued HIM in. Is that that fuzzy logic I read about?

That would be correct.

Of course, I actually did begin winning in 1987, but it all went away for me in 1993 when the Beyer number became common knowledge. It was not that I used the Beyer number.

Back then I was a paceline selector. While most of the world was using one of the last 2 pacelines, I was averaging using the 5.5th paceline, which resulted in much higher prices.

When the Beyer number became readily available, those old pacelines, the ones that pointed to the "past class" horses in the race. suddenly lost their punch.

It took me almost 4 years to return to winning form, and even then it was only marginal.

The truth is that winning is not that difficult. In fact, it is almost easy. It is just a matter of "patience and price." (Hmm... Maybe a good book title there.)

Winning significant money - now, that's not so easy.

One reason for me saying that I couldn't win was that for years I had unrealistic expectations of what I could accomplish. Simply "winning" was not enough. I wanted to win a lot and win all the time.

A single player simply cannot wager gigantic sums of money - there just is not enough time to do that and have a life. As such, I tossed away many winning approaches because they were not good enough for my crazy standards.

As for Tony's kind words, I will fess up that he has exaggerated a little. I have never made anyone a winner. I may have given them excellent tools, and with a couple of people helped improve their attitudes, but at the end of the day it is the individual player that makes himself a winner.

Tony has a long history of being a winning player that may coincide with our long, though sometimes distant friendship.

Winning consistently is a fragile thing. I have known players who could win in the summer and not the winter, or vice-versa. I actually know a player who allowed his winter losses to destroy his long-term profitability by causing him to toss out his system every winter when it ceased to work.

I also know of a married couple - those who have been with me for a couple of decades would remember them well. They became winners when they began playing 1 x 1 x 1 pick 3s in California. As I recall, they grew a $1,000 bankroll into around like $14,000 and then, all of a sudden, around June their Pick 3 hit rate plummeted from like 15% to 9% or so, despite the fact that their race hit rate hardly dropped. (This is from memory, so forgive if I got it not-quite-right.)

Took us about 2 hours to figure out that the 2yr old and FTS races were killing them. They were traditionally the 4th and 6th races on the card and virtually destoryed most of their Pick 3 possibilities!

So, winning is fragile.



I am not sure why you've chosen to see the worst in me, CBP, but I certainly recognize my impotence to fix it.

NorCalGreg
11-22-2015, 11:49 PM
Check my Saratoga selections
Somewhere I put how I bet
I have made a few changes but that's for me only :)

Mike

Mike...you know I have nothing against you personally, right? I've never seen this side of you...but since you're being brutally honest let me do the same.

Aren't your picks supposed to benefit someone else? Compare their own picks? Food for thought? You post these mind-numbing 4 picks per race...no comment, no write-up, no wagering strategy at all--then report back later how you hit 8 of 9 winners, exactas, tris, supers, on and on. Your Sat CD "gettin rich" comment included a $2 superfecta payoff--all I can assume is you are structuring your 4 horse exotic wagers in $2 tri & super boxes--since you aren't saying. Must get expensive.
I can even recall a time you had a small hissy fit when no one congratulated you on having 9 of 10 winners among your picks, one day.

Seems you want the glory, Mike...without the risk--or doing the work. It does take some risk to put yourself out there, take a stand, and say I LIKE THE XX HORSE IN THIS RACE--HERE'S WHY....

So, to me..this statement:

"Somewhere I put how I bet I have made a few changes but that's for me only"

....is really weak



other than that
how was the play,
Mrs Lincoln?

-NCG☮

peteman
11-23-2015, 05:25 AM
Originally Posted by mikesal57
Check my Saratoga selections
Somewhere I put how I bet
I have made a few changes but that's for me only



I looked at 4 cards that Mike posted picks on and 5 of his big wins were on his
4th selection.9 races 36 picks a day at one track is a lot of horses.
So if your your boxing,EX,Tri,and supers you'd have to invest 540.00 a card.
That would be the only way to claim those scores right?

TonyK@HSH
11-23-2015, 11:30 AM
Ummm, Dave made you a winner many years ago but by his own admission he didn't win until a few years ago when one of his clients clued HIM in. Is that that fuzzy logic I read about? :lol:


CBP- you raise a fair question and I do understand your skepticism. Please allow me to provide an example of how Dave helped ME turn the corner.

In the mid 90's, Dave offered 2 money management publications, The Horse Market Investor (HMI) and the Opponent Method (OP). Each 'method' attacked money management from very different perspectives. I purchased both publication and read them thoroughly time and again.

I don't want to bore you with endless details but here is how the methods helped ME.
1) I bought into a concept Dave called 'session' betting. I started to utilize this concept immediately and modified it for years to fit MY betting tendencies. This concept alone, has had the largest impact on MY ability to be profitable
2) I developed a betting strategy that utilized ideas from both of Dave's contrarian betting methods.
3) The combination of the concept of 'session' betting and MY money management strategy IS the foundation of MY game.

My point here is that ideas presented by Dave were used to improve MY game. I did not implement Dave's ideas as presented in the publications, but leveraged his creativity to help ME. This is a simple example that made a large impact on my life.

mikesal57
11-23-2015, 03:12 PM
Amazing!!!!

Criticized by putting up winners... :bang:

Greg , your right...I put them up for others to do what they like...
I am a Win/Place and exacta person 90% of the time....
I work most of the week and don't have time to sit in front of the PC.
I do not play Super's ... I play Tri's when the race calls for it while I'm playing live.....(Like the 4th at CD Sat).

What I'm showing you guys is that this program picks them all!!

Look in the Selection's thread....guys put up whole cards and comes out with 2 or 3 ...$4 winners on the day..I'm showing you double digit winners, exacta's and tri's, and supers....

Pete, your on the right track...the key is "value"

whodoyoulike , I did post a thread of something like "how do you win money with 8 -9 winners on card"....I got some advice and went forward....
I'm not giving what I do because of , well you should know why... :)


I'm showing here that Handifast does work at the low low price of $0
and there's no need to spend whatever , if your willing to put some time in as I did.

I have gotten praises , compliments and thank you 's on my selections.
One guy got a huge payoff on his key horse and one that I posted..he said " I would have never had that one"

Thanks to you guys I will be more reluctant to post in the future..

Mike

raybo
11-23-2015, 03:23 PM
Amazing!!!!

Criticized by putting up winners... :bang:

Greg , your right...I put them up for others to do what they like...
I am a Win/Place and exacta person 90% of the time....
I work most of the week and don't have time to sit in front of the PC.
I do not play Super's ... I play Tri's when the race calls for it while I'm playing live.....(Like the 4th at CD Sat).

What I'm showing you guys is that this program picks them all!!

Look in the Selection's thread....guys put up whole cards and comes out with 2 or 3 ...$4 winners on the day..I'm showing you double digit winners, exacta's and tri's, and supers....

Pete, your on the right track...the key is "value"

whodoyoulike , I did post a thread of something like "how do you win money with 8 -9 winners on card"....I got some advice and went forward....
I'm not giving what I do because of , well you should know why... :)


I'm showing here that Handifast does work at the low low price of $0
and there's no need to spend whatever , if your willing to put some time in as I did.

I have gotten praises , compliments and thank you 's on my selections.
One guy got a huge payoff on his key horse and one that I posted..he said " I would have never had that one"

Thanks to you guys I will be more reluctant to post in the future..

Mike

Mike,

How good are Handi's fair odds? I assume you have your own weightings for dirt sprints, dirt routes, turf sprints, and turf routes, and use the fair odds to determine value.

mikesal57
11-23-2015, 03:28 PM
Mike,

How good are Handi's fair odds? I assume you have your own weightings for dirt sprints, dirt routes, turf sprints, and turf routes, and use the fair odds to determine value.


Pretty good , Ray...a key in decision making
and yes to defining weights
Mike

Tom
11-23-2015, 03:59 PM
I am off the rest of the week, so I am going to take a some time to look at both Handifast and All Data. I have heard so much about both I thought it would fun to see what they can do.

mikesal57
11-23-2015, 04:07 PM
After responding I looked at whats was going on...

I had 3 mins to Parx race 6...

Using the #1 as a strong key horse ...I bet 1/6-7-8

Returned $22 ex
and $55 tri box for $1

Came in....1-6-7-8

Dont know why I had to prove anything...but I did....this happens all the time

mikesal57
11-23-2015, 04:15 PM
I am off the rest of the week, so I am going to take a some time to look at both Handifast and All Data. I have heard so much about both I thought it would fun to see what they can do.


I'm off too...except for Thursday....I rather eat my hotels Turkey instead of my in laws... :D


With Alldata you'll see its like a Sartin-pace Program....you can go auto or choose your own lines( I prefer my own)

Handifast is based on weighing factors

good luck

mike

mikesal57
11-23-2015, 04:44 PM
Parx 8...

I'm not saying one freaking word...

DRIVEWAY
11-23-2015, 04:53 PM
This horse had been claimed 7 out of the last 10 races. In at least one of the non-claimed races, he was running in an allowance race. So that makes it at least 7 out of 9 claimed.

What software highlights the number of claims in the last 10 races? This might be an interesting data element to model.

whodoyoulike
11-23-2015, 05:03 PM
...

whodoyoulike , I did post a thread of something like "how do you win money with 8 -9 winners on card"....I got some advice and went forward....
I'm not giving what I do because of , well you should know why... :)


I'm showing here that Handifast does work at the low low price of $0
and there's no need to spend whatever , if your willing to put some time in as I did.

I have gotten praises , compliments and thank you 's on my selections.
One guy got a huge payoff on his key horse and one that I posted..he said " I would have never had that one"

Thanks to you guys I will be more reluctant to post in the future..

Mike

Actually, I don't don't understand why you're not also posting how you would've bet the race since after all you're posting your selections.

I post my selections to memorialize my thinking of a race for later reference in case I want to refer back to it. And, I usually note how I think the race will play out and how fast for my own personal feedback. Since, I usually make a wager on the races which I post.

It's easy to state my selection is 1,2,3, and 4 but without add'l info I don't see how it can help you unless you keep a separate file which again comes back to just include it in your post.

mikesal57
11-23-2015, 05:25 PM
Actually, I don't don't understand why you're not also posting how you would've bet the race since after all you're posting your selections.




"I'd tell you, but then I'd have to kill you" :eek:

mikesal57
11-23-2015, 05:29 PM
This horse had been claimed 7 out of the last 10 races. In at least one of the non-claimed races, he was running in an allowance race. So that makes it at least 7 out of 9 claimed.

What software highlights the number of claims in the last 10 races? This might be an interesting data element to model.


Don't think any software will go as far as that
most software will go as far as "claimed last race"

Dave Schwartz
11-23-2015, 06:29 PM
Don't think any software will go as far as that
most software will go as far as "claimed last race"

HSH does.

Speed Figure
11-23-2015, 07:13 PM
When will you have screen shots available?
I asked this question and never got an answer!

mikesal57
11-23-2015, 07:27 PM
HSH does.

:ThmbUp:


So out of curiosity , how does a horse fair with say 3-4-5-6, etc claims within his 10 pps history...

peteman
11-23-2015, 08:25 PM
This handfast program program picks no lines? It just weights 25 different
factors,that you can adjust to what you think is important.
Last I heard Bill Bentor program was using 40 or so.

So if you using handfast or tpr or what ever program of choice,that you like
that is producing price horses in the top 4,use a B.Meadow exacta chart,
and only play the overlay combinations.

Dave Schwartz
11-23-2015, 08:35 PM
So out of curiosity , how does a horse fair with say 3-4-5-6, etc claims within his 10 pps history...


From my book, Percentages & Probabilities (http://store.pacemakestherace.com/percentages-probabilities/).

http://www.practicalhandicapping.com/desktop/package/PublicImages/BBSImages/WebGraphics/RacesSinceClaim.jpg


And you are just unbelievable.

Dave Schwartz
11-23-2015, 08:51 PM
Originally Posted by Speed Figure
When will you have screen shots available?


Screen shots: Yes. Still writing a lot of background, getting data in, etc.

My primary concern is getting the software to a usable place. Could be 2-3 weeks before meaningful screenshots.

NorCalGreg
11-23-2015, 10:03 PM
After responding I looked at whats was going on...

I had 3 mins to Parx race 6...

Using the #1 as a strong key horse ...I bet 1/6-7-8

Returned $22 ex
and $55 tri box for $1

Came in....1-6-7-8

Dont know why I had to prove anything...but I did....this happens all the time

Very good Mike--thank you. Now why weren't we privy to any of this?? I don't mean you reveal your entire HANDI-FAST set-up, but the fact the 1 was an obvious key horse, and the 6,7,8 look to be playable underneath that one??

When did anyone even suggest you had to prove anything? You completely missed the entire point of my post. Here you are, gleefully posting your winners using Handifast, when no one ever questioned handifast.
Now I ask ....why couldn't we have gotten this kind of info beforehand? I like winners---I like to cash big trifecta tickets. Hell yeah.

Do you see my point here Mike?

1...1-4-5-7
2...6-5-4-8
3...PASS
4...3-1-4-2
5...7-5-4-1
6...5-3-4-12
7...6-8-3-1
8...PASS
9...5-8-3-1
10..13-11-12-( 5-9 )
11..1-6-9-10

You are free to post any way you like. I don't have time now to take on yet another project, or I would already have my own copy of Handifast.
I've heard good things :)

Longshot
11-23-2015, 10:16 PM
This horse had been claimed 7 out of the last 10 races. In at least one of the non-claimed races, he was running in an allowance race. So that makes it at least 7 out of 9 claimed.

What software highlights the number of claims in the last 10 races? This might be an interesting data element to model.




This is easy to do with an EquiSim FV with just a short formula.

mikesal57
11-23-2015, 10:29 PM
Greg....

You cant get this info before hand because I work 5 days a week PM hours...
Because of that I have 2 ways to play the card...

You got todays 6 & 8 races because I'm off today...
On the CD card I went to work after the 4TH race...

When I'm doing it live I have more info to make my plays...

The best you'll get is HF contenders , the rest is up to you..

Mike

raybo
11-23-2015, 10:33 PM
The races that the horse was claimed in will show a "c" or "clm" after the class designation in the PPs view, depending on which data file you're using in "AllData". That could also be conditionally formatted to highlight that cell(s) if the user wanted.

raybo
11-23-2015, 10:35 PM
Very good Mike--thank you. Now why weren't we privy to any of this?? I don't mean you reveal your entire HANDI-FAST set-up, but the fact the 1 was an obvious key horse, and the 6,7,8 look to be playable underneath that one??

When did anyone even suggest you had to prove anything? You completely missed the entire point of my post. Here you are, gleefully posting your winners using Handifast, when no one ever questioned handifast.
Now I ask ....why couldn't we have gotten this kind of info beforehand? I like winners---I like to cash big trifecta tickets. Hell yeah.

Do you see my point here Mike?

1...1-4-5-7
2...6-5-4-8
3...PASS
4...3-1-4-2
5...7-5-4-1
6...5-3-4-12
7...6-8-3-1
8...PASS
9...5-8-3-1
10..13-11-12-( 5-9 )
11..1-6-9-10

You are free to post any way you like. I don't have time now to take on yet another project, or I would already have my own copy of Handifast.
I've heard good things :)

If you mean why didn't he post the way he was betting, or that the 1 was his key horse, isn't that obvious if you're trying to make money? Personally, giving the public your top 3 or 4 win contenders is more than enough, the public has to decide which ones to bet, and how to bet them.

NorCalGreg
11-23-2015, 10:40 PM
After responding I looked at whats was going on...

I had 3 mins to Parx race 6...

Using the #1 as a strong key horse ...I bet 1/6-7-8

Returned $22 ex
and $55 tri box for $1

Came in....1-6-7-8

Dont know why I had to prove anything...but I did....this happens all the time

Very good Mike--thank you. Now why weren't we privy to any of this new info?? I don't mean you reveal your entire HANDI-FAST set-up, but the fact the 1 was an obvious key horse, and the 6,7,8 look to be playable underneath that one??

When did anyone even suggest you had to prove anything? You completely missed the entire point of my post. Here you are, gleefully posting your winners using Handifast, when no one ever questioned handifast.
Now I ask ....why couldn't we have gotten this kind of info beforehand? I like winners---I like to cash big trifecta tickets. Hell yeah.

Do you see my point here Mike?

1...1-4-5-7
2...6-5-4-8
3...PASS
4...3-1-4-2
5...7-5-4-1
6...5-3-4-12
7...6-8-3-1
8...PASS
9...5-8-3-1
10..13-11-12-( 5-9 )
11..1-6-9-10

On second thought.....disregard everything I've posted. (if you haven't already). When I'm able to take on a new project, I'll get my own copy of HandiFast.
I hear it's Free :)

take care

NorCalGreg
11-23-2015, 10:52 PM
If you mean why didn't he post the way he was betting, or that the 1 was his key horse, isn't that obvious if you're trying to make money? Personally, giving the public your top 3 or 4 win contenders is more than enough, the public has to decide which ones to bet, and how to bet them.

That was in reply to Mike, but thanks for the totally unnecessary feedback, Raybo

NorCalGreg
11-23-2015, 10:53 PM
Greg....

You cant get this info before hand because I work 5 days a week PM hours...
Because of that I have 2 ways to play the card...

You got todays 6 & 8 races because I'm off today...
On the CD card I went to work after the 4TH race...

When I'm doing it live I have more info to make my plays...

The best you'll get is HF contenders , the rest is up to you..

Mike

Fair enough

-NCG☮

PaceAdvantage
11-24-2015, 02:34 AM
And you have proved that I am correct about a certain authorized advertiser having shills on this board. If you think you can bait me into a name calling contest, forget it. I'm an adult. Welcome to my ignore list.Shills imply fake supporters, or paid supporters. There is no evidence of that to my knowledge.

And get this. Dave hasn't paid me in ages to be an authorized advertiser. I extend him that courtesy because I have been a fan of his since way before I ever started this website.

So you and all the Dave haters...stop being dicks. It's unbecoming...and if you read the terms of service here, it's also a bannable offense.

PaceAdvantage
11-24-2015, 02:35 AM
And perhaps you fail to see what is right before your eyes.I don't fail to see what's right before my eyes. It starts with a d and ends with a k.

PaceAdvantage
11-24-2015, 02:38 AM
You're a spiteful, FAT man. You've probably spent as much on racing products over the past 30 years than you have on BIG GULPS. It's fine.

But this hasn't made you a winner. And, these products won't make others winners either. You and the others can
try to rope others in. If you bought it, why shouldn't they! And, of course, someone with a dissenting view has no place in the discussion. Spend your money. Others know better.Thanks for making this an easy call, ASSHOLE.

keenang
11-24-2015, 09:40 AM
You know what they say,it takes one to know one

Geno

mikesal57
11-24-2015, 10:19 AM
Fair enough

-NCG☮


No problem Greg...

Just a FYI ...
On youtube
Look us Valuecapping Rant by Michael Pizzolla....
What he does is almost to a tee on how I play the races...
In the 10+ year HF was going on , the top 4 horses have been the so called random line...no need to change it...
But it would be a enormous plus is to get it down to 3 horses, which is what I'm been searching for....

Since PA is now getting this ,I'm going to be a good boy :rolleyes:

yours

Dick...
no no ..I mean Mike :)

mikesal57
11-24-2015, 10:23 AM
If you mean why didn't he post the way he was betting, or that the 1 was his key horse, isn't that obvious if you're trying to make money? Personally, giving the public your top 3 or 4 win contenders is more than enough, the public has to decide which ones to bet, and how to bet them.

Thxs Ray ...you said it for me...

Partsnut
11-25-2015, 02:46 PM
"The best you'll get is HF contenders , the rest is up to you..

Mike"
-----------------------------------------------------------
Handifast 8.2 is definitely a formidable piece of work.

It does well on contender selection.
I like it for dirt sprints.
If you pair it up with the right pace program and use the correct pace lines
You might do well on selected races.

HuggingTheRail
11-26-2015, 12:38 AM
If Dave has shills, where do I apply to be one?

mikesal57
11-26-2015, 10:02 AM
If Dave has shills, where do I apply to be one?

Another one that comes out of the woodwork...

Just once I'd like to see someone show us why his products are so good.
I cant recall anyone showing us they are making money consistently.
His web site is priceless with all the info there and I'm sure he's helped lots of people along the way but his products????

Capper Al
11-26-2015, 10:26 AM
Another one that comes out of the woodwork...

Just once I'd like to see someone show us why his products are so good.
I cant recall anyone showing us they are making money consistently.
His web site is priceless with all the info there and I'm sure he's helped lots of people along the way but his products????

His website has lots of good stuff for free. With the depth of his knowledge without doing a study of his products, I have to believe his products are at least as good as any if not better than most. I have bought stuff from Dave and overall have been satisfied. What I like about buying from Dave verse others is that I believe with the proceeds that I am supporting his website with free stuff.

raybo
11-26-2015, 12:10 PM
Another one that comes out of the woodwork...

Just once I'd like to see someone show us why his products are so good.
I cant recall anyone showing us they are making money consistently.
His web site is priceless with all the info there and I'm sure he's helped lots of people along the way but his products????

Mike,

Why do you, and a coupe of others, continue to rant about Dave? Do you just not like the guy? What is the real reason for all this crap? If you have done any investigating, at all, about what he has to offer, there is no way that you couldn't be impressed with his work. If you watch any of his webinars/videos you would see and hear the quality of his work, and the depth of his understanding of both racing and gambling/investing.

There is no way in the world that anyone who offers products could come on here and prove to anyone here that their products will make anyone profitable. If they tried, they would still be doubted by lots of people who think that people who sell handicapping products only do so because they can't make it as a bettor.

Someone in this thread, maybe you, don't remember who and don't really care, questioned why Dave doesn't prove the effectiveness of HSH by posting picks, or why he doesn't post analysis of races. Well, I can tell you from experience here, that posting picks do not prove anything, because the sample size is too low to be meaningful, and to post enough races to make the sample large enough would take lots of time, and some of us just don't have that kind of time, nor the interest in doing that. Regarding analyzing races, Dave's software does all of the work for him except the actual betting (and it might even do that, I don't know), and that is based on long term value stats. Personally, I have never gotten one thing from anyone's posting of picks, or from anyone's analysis of races. As a matter of fact, I don't particularly enjoy reading someone else's opinions on individual races, they just further cloud the issues, and tend to be redundant, as many others post the same obvious factors for the same races and horses.

You may not like Dave, or program vendors at all, but that doesn't mean that the products are not of value. Only personal investigation of those products will answer that question for you. So, do the work, go to the website, read some articles and watch some videos, and make up your own mind whether they are for you or not. Nobody is forcing anything on you, or anyone else on this forum. As a matter of fact, nobody is forcing you to read this, or any other thread here.

MPRanger
11-27-2015, 02:21 PM
Another one that comes out of the woodwork...

Just once I'd like to see someone show us why his products are so good.
I cant recall anyone showing us they are making money consistently.
His web site is priceless with all the info there and I'm sure he's helped lots of people along the way but his products????



Michael Pizzola doesn't just sell software. He teaches handicapping to go
with it. There's a lot of knowledge that goes with Black Magic. It comes
with the package. If I never used Black Magic again and just make my
ratings with Excel, I'm better than I was. I don't need the software for
handicapping. But it's awesome at handling lots of data easily. I can look at
every track running in North America at a glance everyday to see if I'm
interested. It's also nice to have a database growing by about 4000 races
per month though querying it is limited as is. But .....


Now this business about consistently making profits ...... Do you? I only
mean that rhetorically. I'm sure you don't. I never have. I don't think that's
how it works. You don't consistently make profits at this game.


When I grind by picking winners I'm up and down usually on a downward
trajectory til I hit a score on an exacta or trifecta then I'm up again. That's
just me. Maybe others have a different experience. But that's how it is with
my poker game too. When I grind in cash games it's always up and down.
Nowadays, I pretty much just concentrate on hitting scores in poker
tournaments and exotics. Of course you can win by grinding but it's slow
going. But you can lose too obviously. At any rate, it's hardly what I would
call consistent. You have to do your own work. The program doesn't
say,"Here bet this one".


If you don't want to buy the software, that's cool but you have no real
grounds to disrespect it until you have seen it.


I understand the "Sucker born everyday" attitude. That's not what Michael
Pizzola is about. He gives you a guarantee. You can return it after a couple
of months if you don't like it. How is that in any way unfair or taking
advantage of someone or playing them for a sucker?


Do what you want. I recommend healthy skepticism but also being open minded.

cj
11-27-2015, 03:53 PM
Michael Pizzola doesn't just sell software. He teaches handicapping to go
with it. There's a lot of knowledge that goes with Black Magic. It comes
with the package. If I never used Black Magic again and just make my
ratings with Excel, I'm better than I was. I don't need the software for
handicapping. But it's awesome at handling lots of data easily. I can look at
every track running in North America at a glance everyday to see if I'm
interested. It's also nice to have a database growing by about 4000 races
per month though querying it is limited as is. But .....


Now this business about consistently making profits ...... Do you? I only
mean that rhetorically. I'm sure you don't. I never have. I don't think that's
how it works. You don't consistently make profits at this game.


When I grind by picking winners I'm up and down usually on a downward
trajectory til I hit a score on an exacta or trifecta then I'm up again. That's
just me. Maybe others have a different experience. But that's how it is with
my poker game too. When I grind in cash games it's always up and down.
Nowadays, I pretty much just concentrate on hitting scores in poker
tournaments and exotics. Of course you can win by grinding but it's slow
going. But you can lose too obviously. At any rate, it's hardly what I would
call consistent. You have to do your own work. The program doesn't
say,"Here bet this one".


If you don't want to buy the software, that's cool but you have no real
grounds to disrespect it until you have seen it.


I understand the "Sucker born everyday" attitude. That's not what Michael
Pizzola is about. He gives you a guarantee. You can return it after a couple
of months if you don't like it. How is that in any way unfair or taking
advantage of someone or playing them for a sucker?


Do what you want. I recommend healthy skepticism but also being open minded.

I really liked his book. I never used the software, and I didn't agree with everything he wrote, but I thought it was well worth the price. I've lost it but I may actually go buy it again.

Tom
11-27-2015, 04:01 PM
It was a good book for sure.

raybo
11-27-2015, 06:22 PM
I've never read it, but I have read many excerpts from it, from various sources, and they certainly had a profound impact on the way I approach racing. I have much respect for Tom Hambleton, Dick Schmidt, Michael Pizzola, Howard Sarton, et al!

PaceAdvantage
11-29-2015, 03:00 PM
You know what they say,it takes one to know one

GenoIt sure does.

cato
01-11-2016, 12:43 PM
Have I missed the update(s) on the Pace Makes the Race?

Red Knave
01-11-2016, 01:53 PM
Have I missed the update(s) on the Pace Makes the Race?
There are a couple other threads on this but I think you should check out this one --> http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=127627