Coaches not knowing when to go for 2

[Neumeier]

Yesterday Tennessee was up 20-14 with 9 minutes left and they score vs Florida. I run outside and come back in to see 27-14. I'm confused because you'd go for 2 every time in this case. I immediately say "if Florida wins 28-27 the coach should be fired" I tweet out to the Vols Twitter and other Vols Twitter accounts asking if anyone else thinks it's weird. One person just tweets back #analytics-

What drives me more nuts is that the announcers don't even pick up on this. It's not even spoken about on Sportscenter or anything. I'm waiting to hear the excuse "there was too much time left to go for 2"

And yes, I bet the Vols!!

[Stillriledup]

Any reason the Browns went for 2 with 8 mins remaining up by 4?

[Marshall Bennett]

Any reason the Browns went for 2 with 8 mins remaining up by 4?
Only that they would be up by 2 field goals instead of 1. Being up by 5 really isn't any better than 4 short of a safety being scored.

[OTM Al]

Only that they would be up by 2 field goals instead of 1. Being up by 5 really isn't any better than 4 short of a safety being scored.
But given the fact the PAT isn't as much a gimme anymore, being up 6 is better than being up 5 as there is a possibility it remains tied even with TD

[cj]

Only that they would be up by 2 field goals instead of 1. Being up by 5 really isn't any better than 4 short of a safety being scored.

I think the thing is coaches are going for it too soon these days, though with the new extra point it becomes a little less clear. When there is still plenty of time left for multiple scores, giving away a point is always shaky.

[bks]

Only that they would be up by 2 field goals instead of 1. Being up by 5 really isn't any better than 4 short of a safety being scored.

Here I strongly disagree. Going for 2 to get up by 6 is not the right risk. You take the easier point to go up 5. Being up 5 means that you essentially force the opponent to go for 2 if they score a touchdown, in order that they go up by 3. If you go for to up 4 and miss, a touchdown against you means the best you can do is tie with a late FG. Go up 5, and that late FG you might kick after an opponent's TD can win you the game a lot more of the time.

If you don't understand math well, I don't see how you can be entrusted as a coach to make these late-game decisions.

[bks]

But given the fact the PAT isn't as much a gimme anymore, being up 6 is better than being up 5 as there is a possibility it remains tied even with TD

In the pro game, the longer extra pt has changed this calculation somewhat, yes. I still think on balance you kick the PAT to go up 5, to give yourself the best chance of winning the game with just a single addl FG.

[bks]

Another situation may come up tonight: 9 minutes left, Colts down 13. Let's say they score a TD with 5 or 6 minutes to go or so. Do you risk going for two to make it a 5 pt game or kick an extra pt to make it a 6 pt. game?

You go for two every time. Why? Because a NE field goal ends the game if you are down 6. Being down 5, it takes a touchdown to eliminate you.

I understand the flip side, that if you hold NE and then score a TD of your own, you may only tie the score instead of win the game. But you have to defend against the worst outcome when that worst outcome will eliminate you, even it it means compromising on the best possible outcome.

[Marshall Bennett]

Here I strongly disagree.
Wasn't implying that I agreed with the decision, just giving what might have been the logic behind the coaching decision. I tend to agree with Cj that with that much time remaining, it's always best to put points on the board in the most likely way.