Does Beholder have a chance at Horse of the Year?

[mountainvalleypete]

Curious at everyone's thoughts! I say absolutely if she wins the Classic. If she doesn't, AP obviously the winner.

[ReplayRandall]

Curious at everyone's thoughts! I say absolutely if she wins the Classic. If she doesn't, AP obviously the winner.

It's funny you should ask that question, as DISCOVERY was voted the Horse of the Year in 1935, in spite of the fact that OMAHA won the triple crown. However, it was a 37 year wait for this Triple Crown winner, thus American Pharoah will be HOY regardless of the outcome in the Classic. After all, Zenyatta lost the Classic and still won the award.....

[Rex Phinney]

It's funny you should ask that question, as DISCOVERY was voted the Horse of the Year in 1935, in spite of the fact that OMAHA won the triple crown. However, it was a 37 year wait for this Triple Crown winner, thus American Pharoah will be HOY regardless of the outcome in the Classic. After all, Zenyatta lost the Classic and still won the award.....

Bayern beat Chrome twice last year, even without the triple crown Chrome won in a landslide.

Clearly the TC races carry huge weight with voters, even if those races are full of lightly raced three year olds, with nothing but hopes and dreams to their credit.

[ronsmac]

Curious at everyone's thoughts! I say absolutely if she wins the Classic. If she doesn't, AP obviously the winner.
No.

[horses4courses]

Close to zero chance.

How can a TC winner not get it?
Even if faster horses beat him at Keeneland.

[v j stauffer]

If she wins the BC Classic and AP is soundly beaten. I think the vote would be VERY close.

Of course winning the TC carries a huge amount of weight.

But, if she beats him in their only head to head matchup. Finishes the year with two Grade 1's over males and undefeated it would be very hard not to vote for her. Especially because AP will have lost his last two starts of the season and his only vs older.

Voters will also reconcile it by knowing he'll still be 3yo champion.

IMO if they ran the race tomorrow she'd be a very slight favorite over AP.

GREAT topic.

[RXB]

Zenyatta lost the Classic and still won the award.....

And interestingly, she also won the Classic and lost the award.

[v j stauffer]

Another huge factor could very well be the human connections.

If a voter was truly split 50/50 and needs a last and final tiebreaker.

I expect Mandella, Stevens and B.Wayne Hughes who are revered.

Would carry the day over Zayat & Baffert who almost nobody likes and Espinoza who can't dance.

[andtheyreoff]

If Beholder wins the Classic, she'll win the award in a landslide.

That shouldn't be the case, as American Pharoah is more deserving, but she'd win HOTY easily.

[v j stauffer]

If Beholder wins the Classic, she'll win the award in a landslide.

That shouldn't be the case, as American Pharoah is more deserving, but she'd win HOTY easily.

Why would he be more deserving?

[andtheyreoff]

Why would he be more deserving?

For one, assuming he lost the Classic, he'd have five grade 1 wins under his belt, including the three most important ones for three-year-olds. Not to mention, he'll have beaten every three-year-old that mattered this season.

Beholder, with a Classic win, will have won four grade 1s. While she will have beaten a salty field in the Breeders' Cup, two of those grade 1 wins will be against horses inferior to the ones American Pharoah beat.

But Beholder will still win anyway, because girl power.

[Track Phantom]

American Pharoah will win HOY of the year no matter the outcome in the Classic. "Triple Crown", one of the most prestigious accomplishments in all of sports, will be the difference.

However, if Beholder wins the Classic and AP fades in the lane, there is a legitimate case to be made for Beholder. I just think the voters will reward a very unique accomplishment.

By the way, Beholder will beat American Pharoah in Kentucky, along with two or three others.

[SG4]

Beholder already pulled this trick once before when Princess of Sylmar's name was pretty much written in stone for champion 3yo filly before the Breeders' Cup two years ago. I really can't see American Pharoah losing this vote but a Beholder victory would make things interesting.

[v j stauffer]

For one, assuming he lost the Classic, he'd have five grade 1 wins under his belt, including the three most important ones for three-year-olds. Not to mention, he'll have beaten every three-year-old that mattered this season.

Beholder, with a Classic win, will have won four grade 1s. While she will have beaten a salty field in the Breeders' Cup, two of those grade 1 wins will be against horses inferior to the ones American Pharoah beat.

But Beholder will still win anyway, because girl power.

If she wins their only head to head matchup. Wouldn't that supersede his resume against just 3yo's?

[v j stauffer]

American Pharoah will win HOY of the year no matter the outcome in the Classic. "Triple Crown", one of the most prestigious accomplishments in all of sports, will be the difference.

However, if Beholder wins the Classic and AP fades in the lane, there is a legitimate case to be made for Beholder. I just think the voters will reward a very unique accomplishment.

By the way, Beholder will beat American Pharoah in Kentucky, along with two or three others.

A VERY unique accomplishment indeed. However I have to say beating males including a TC winner in the Classic would be considered quite unique as well.

[Stillriledup]

This is an interesting debate, the only shot Beholder has, I believe, is if she wins the classic in super impressive fashion by a comfortable margin and at the same time, AP fades badly and doesn't race well. When Z beat Blame for HOY, she secured the award because she 'showed up' and raced well in the classic. If AP races well. Win or lose, he will be HOY.

If AP retires and doesn't race again, he will probably still win HOY, I think beholder needs to beat AP by a large margin while winning the classic, that's her only hope I think.

[Thomas Roulston]

No.

Triple Crown winner = automatic Horse Of The Year.

[ManU918]

No.

Triple Crown winner = automatic Horse Of The Year.

+1

[tanner12oz]

You could give the award to AP today.

[horses4courses]

Why would he be more deserving?

Because he did something special not accomplished in 37 years.

You know better than most, Vic, that horses are not machines.
It's extremely hard to reproduce top class efforts race in, race out.

What bothers me most (and there are several things) about HOTY,
is that a tendency has developed to crown BC winners with Eclipse awards.
The belief that "well, they were best in Nov., so they must be the champ".

The award goes (or should go) for achievement during the calendar year.
It shouldn't come down to one race in the fall. :ThmbDown:

[RXB]

What bothers me most (and there are several things) about HOTY,
is that a tendency has developed to crown BC winners with Eclipse awards.
The belief that "well, they were best in Nov., so they must be the champ".

The award goes (or should go) for achievement during the calendar year.
It shouldn't come down to one race in the fall. :ThmbDown:

Five of the last seven years, the horse voted HotY didn't win a Breeders Cup race.

The fall races are the championship races, open to all comers, and thus should matter more than any spring/summer race.

[Robert Fischer]

AP boosted the sport and broadened the audience with the TC win. He already did more than any other horse can do this year.

Beholder is a great story within the sport.

It shouldn't even be close if AP finishes last and Beholder wins by 10 lengths. That's basically saying that a horse who wins the TC and doesn't retire immediately gets punished for it in the awards.

[clocker7]

This is an interesting debate, the only shot Beholder has, I believe, is if she wins the classic in super impressive fashion by a comfortable margin and at the same time, AP fades badly and doesn't race well. When Z beat Blame for HOY, she secured the award because she 'showed up' and raced well in the classic. If AP races well. Win or lose, he will be HOY.

If AP retires and doesn't race again, he will probably still win HOY, I think beholder needs to beat AP by a large margin while winning the classic, that's her only hope I think.

I would add one more requirement to yours bolded above, before considering Beholder as HOY; namely, that the rest of the 3yos under-perform also. That might tend to put the TC achievement into a different perspective for voters. Even so, it still would be pretty close for me.

[classhandicapper]

The Triple Crown is an automatic HOTY.

Forego was an all time great and had a good year when Seattle Slew won the Triple Crown. Slew went out with a loss and had a suspect reputation in some circles. Slew got HOTY.

Slew had an amazing 4yo campaign and beat Affirmed heads up twice. Affirmed got HOTY.

[Fager Fan]

Because he did something special not accomplished in 37 years.

You know better than most, Vic, that horses are not machines.
It's extremely hard to reproduce top class efforts race in, race out.

What bothers me most (and there are several things) about HOTY,
is that a tendency has developed to crown BC winners with Eclipse awards.
The belief that "well, they were best in Nov., so they must be the champ".

The award goes (or should go) for achievement during the calendar year.
It shouldn't come down to one race in the fall. :ThmbDown:

And it wouldn't if she wins the Classic and HOTY. It's not like she's chopped liver except that one win.

If she beats not only AP but the horses in the Classic field, she makes a good case for being the best horse to run this year. That's a pretty good case for HOTY.

[Fager Fan]

The Triple Crown is an automatic HOTY.

Forego was an all time great and had a good year when Seattle Slew won the Triple Crown. Slew went out with a loss and had a suspect reputation in some circles. Slew got HOTY.

Slew had an amazing 4yo campaign and beat Affirmed heads up twice. Affirmed got HOTY.

It's not 40 years ago. Those voters are dead probably.

All the filly has to do is give a reason to choose between Mandella and Hughes or Baffert and Zayat.

[SandyW]

No chance, if you don't give it to the triple crown winner then you might as well do away with the award.
By the way the horses that she beat yesterday were a bunch of garbage cans.

[burnsy]

No chance, if you don't give it to the triple crown winner then you might as well do away with the award.
By the way the horses that she beat yesterday were a bunch of garbage cans.

....and that's the problem with goofy awards in horse racing. There's no way she can win it because of the "hype". If she beats the next group like garbage cans...What's the excuse after that? There will be one, for sure, the crybabies would not have it any other way. If she wins this next race, she's better than everyone in that field by light-years. Not saying she will win, but if she wins and wins easy, it will prove that the award is a total joke that I always thought it was. Yesterday will have nothing to do with that, that was a prep, what does yesterday have to do with her beating the best around if she wins? There's no logic to this statement or that award.

[Fager Fan]

No chance, if you don't give it to the triple crown winner then you might as well do away with the award.
By the way the horses that she beat yesterday were a bunch of garbage cans.

The horses AP beat to win the TC were garbage cans. And he was beaten by a garbage can. You place far too much emphasis on restricted 3yo races.

[cj]

The horses AP beat to win the TC were garbage cans. And he was beaten by a garbage can. You place far too much emphasis on restricted 3yo races.

Garbage cans? Really? Based on what?

[horses4courses]

I figured after the Belmont that there wouldn't be
the annual cacophony of HOTY arguments.

I was wrong about that. Go figure.

[mountainvalleypete]

I figured after the Belmont that there wouldn't be
the annual cacophony of HOTY arguments.

I was wrong about that. Go figure.

Believe me, I thought the same thing after Rachel's '09 Woodward.

[letswastemoney]

I don't think Beholder will win HoTY, but she might get a few extra votes as a popular female horse. Her schedule has been soft though except for the Pacific Classic, which was as a weak field for males too.

[Fager Fan]

Garbage cans? Really? Based on what?

Based on Beholder supposedly beating garbage cans. Neither has beaten the best out there.

[classhandicapper]

The horses AP beat to win the TC were garbage cans. And he was beaten by a garbage can. You place far too much emphasis on restricted 3yo races.

Dortmund and Firing Line both had setbacks and haven't been able to show how good they were, but they looked quite good coming into the Derby.

Keen Ice looks pretty good.

Frosted looks pretty good.

[Tom]

Beholder - no shot.

[Stillriledup]

Beholder - no shot.

I just placed a phone call to beholder (yes, I'm a horse whisperer!) and told her what you said and she commented that she wasnt eligible to race in the series of races that leading HOY candidate AP used to stamp himself as the front runner for the award. She wants to know if you think that's fair, she said that it would be akin to an MLB team calling themselves WORLD series winners without giving ' the world' a shot.

[Tom]

I would tell her that she has been running races that AP was not allowed to run in, so stop whining and enter the distaff.

[VeryOldMan]

I would tell her that she has been running races that AP was not allowed to run in, so stop whining and enter the distaff.

Nice.

I'm old school and wish the Breeders Cup hadn't atomized this into so many races. Remember the days of the classic fall races? Woodward, Marlboro, JCGP, etc.? Where the contenders could prove themselves over multiple races and possibly multiple years?

I WANT to see Beholder race against AP. Honor Code. Hope Shared Belief gets healthy. Etc., etc. etc.

We have a chance to see some great stuff in the fall - just wish it could unfold over multiple races. There are some very good horses in the mix here - I'd love for one or more of them to put themselves into the GOAT discussion by crushing rivals/running track records/etc.

[Tom]

I'm old school and wish the Breeders Cup hadn't atomized this into so many races. Remember the days of the classic fall races? Woodward, Marlboro, JCGP, etc.? Where the contenders could prove themselves over multiple races and possibly multiple years?

The good old days.
A championship meet, and it was Belmont. :ThmbUp:

[v j stauffer]

If Beholder wins the Breeder's Cup Classic and in doing so is...............

1. Undefeated for the year.

2. Twice defeated males in a Grade 1 at a mile and a quarter one of which was the Breeders Cup Classic.

3. Defeated a Triple Crown winner.

She is a mortal cinch to be named HOTY.

[Stillriledup]

If Beholder wins the Breeder's Cup Classic and in doing so is...............

1. Undefeated for the year.

2. Twice defeated males in a Grade 1 at a mile and a quarter one of which was the Breeders Cup Classic.

3. Defeated a Triple Crown winner.

She is a mortal cinch to be named HOTY.

I think the caveat is that she needs to win dominantly (pref. under a hand ride) and she needs AP to not race great in defeat. If AP races his eyeballs out and is an impressive 2nd to Beholder, he's prob HOY.

[v j stauffer]

I think the caveat is that she needs to win dominantly (pref. under a hand ride) and she needs AP to not race great in defeat. If AP races his eyeballs out and is an impressive 2nd to Beholder, he's prob HOY.

2nd is 1st loser. How a horse is defeated is meaningless. Scoreboard baby.

[PaceAdvantage]

2nd is 1st loser. How a horse is defeated is meaningless. Scoreboard baby.Were you saying similar after the 2010 BC Classic?

[RXB]

If Beholder wins the Breeder's Cup Classic and in doing so is...............

1. Undefeated for the year.

2. Twice defeated males in a Grade 1 at a mile and a quarter one of which was the Breeders Cup Classic.

3. Defeated a Triple Crown winner.

She is a mortal cinch to be named HOTY.

Seattle Slew twice sent Affirmed to the showers, and still Affirmed was named HotY.

[v j stauffer]

Were you saying similar after the 2010 BC Classic?

I was. I owe my career to Zenyatta. But I said publicly on TVG that Blame deserved to be HOTY.

Dottie Ingordo didn't talk to me for 6 months. :(

[dilanesp]

I was. I owe my career to Zenyatta. But I said publicly on TVG that Blame deserved to be HOTY.

Dottie Ingordo didn't talk to me for 6 months. :(

I agree that Blame should have been HOTY. He had a great year and beat Zenyatta when it counted.

The mistake was the previous year. The racing establishment is very much an east coast establishment, and so much of that-- hatred for the Breeders' Cup and how it destroyed the importance of the New York stakes schedule, hatred for synthetic tracks, hatred for California getting to host the Breeders' Cup so much, and just general disdain for the idea that winning a race in California could ever be as important as winning an old stakes race in New York-- it all came together to make the Rachel Alexandra Horse of the Year.

Had Zenyatta won it when she deserved it, Blame could have and probably would have won it when he deserved it. Instead, they did a make-up call.

[clocker7]

Seattle Slew twice sent Affirmed to the showers, and still Affirmed was named HotY.
Slew, bless his heart, had a spotty year in 1978. That being said, had he won the JCGC by the nose that he lost by, he might have been HOY anyway.

[dilanesp]

Believe me, I thought the same thing after Rachel's '09 Woodward.

I suspect there isn't going to be a real argument this year-- AP will win HOTY in a landslide even if Beholder beats him by 31 lengths and breaks the track record by 2 4/5 seconds while Larry Collmus announces on the network that she is moving like a tremendous machine.

I'm not saying that SHOULD be true, but I am predicting it WILL be true.

That said, as a general matter, I think anyone who seriously thinks that HOTY could ever be "settled after the Woodward" has failed to come to grips with just how much more important the Breeders' Cup races are as compared to the races that come before it. That's kind of the whole point of having divisional championship races-- they tend to decide the championships, they are really important because they draw ALL the horses from across the country, and-- and this is important-- they have relegated races that were once far more important into preps that tend not to draw as strong a field.

If you compare the fields in the Woodward, year in and year out, to those in the Breeders' Cup Classic, the Classic field is almost always stronger (and larger). And that's true of EVERY circuit's big races-- the Awesome Again and the Santa Anita Handicap are not as strong as the BC Classic, the Stephen Foster and the Clark are not as strong as the BC Classic, etc.

Again, this was by design. Before the BC was created, a lot of times the top horses never met each other. California would have a top turf horse who might win the San Juan, Hollywood Invitational, and Oak Tree Invitational, and New York would have one who won the Sword Dancer, Turf Classic, and Man O'War, and we'd have no way to know who was better. (In practice, the New York horse would usually win the Eclipse Award, but that really didn't settle the matter.)

The point of these races was to get rid of that and have the top horses meet to decide championships. The flip side is that the prep races are basically never Eclipse-deciders anymore, and a number of them (especially in New York, such as the Woodward, JCGC, Turf Classic, and Champagne) used to be.

Bottom line, in the modern era, you should generally assume that any Eclipse Awards are up in the air until the BC races are run. If the BC race doesn't provide a clear answer, or some horse did something that outweighs it, fine, but the BC has got to be the starting point. That's the point of having a Breeders' Cup.

[Stillriledup]

2nd is 1st loser. How a horse is defeated is meaningless. Scoreboard baby.

A strong 2nd got Z HOY, if she's DFL I would say Blame prob would have gotten it.

How a horse is defeated is everything, especially in handicapping.

[v j stauffer]

I agree that Blame should have been HOTY. He had a great year and beat Zenyatta when it counted.

The mistake was the previous year. The racing establishment is very much an east coast establishment, and so much of that-- hatred for the Breeders' Cup and how it destroyed the importance of the New York stakes schedule, hatred for synthetic tracks, hatred for California getting to host the Breeders' Cup so much, and just general disdain for the idea that winning a race in California could ever be as important as winning an old stakes race in New York-- it all came together to make the Rachel Alexandra Horse of the Year.

Had Zenyatta won it when she deserved it, Blame could have and probably would have won it when he deserved it. Instead, they did a make-up call.

Well actually ironically I thought they got it right with Rachel as well. Her resume that year was clearly better than Queenie's.

Zenyatta was 5 for 5 and won the BC distaff.

Although Rachel did not make it to the BC. She was 8 for 8. Won the KY. Oaks and defeated males 3 times in the Preakness, Haskell and Woodward.

A Woodward where Calvin Borel had to ride he so hard she was never the same.

One of the GREAT mares of all time and amazingly she probably didn't deserve HOY either time she was up for it.

Go figure.

[Track Phantom]

I suspect there isn't going to be a real argument this year-- AP will win HOTY in a landslide even if Beholder ...

Nice overall post. I think you're right in all of it.

[v j stauffer]

I suspect there isn't going to be a real argument this year-- AP will win HOTY in a landslide even if Beholder beats him by 31 lengths and breaks the track record by 2 4/5 seconds while Larry Collmus announces on the network that she is moving like a tremendous machine.

I'm not saying that SHOULD be true, but I am predicting it WILL be true.

That said, as a general matter, I think anyone who seriously thinks that HOTY could ever be "settled after the Woodward" has failed to come to grips with just how much more important the Breeders' Cup races are as compared to the races that come before it. That's kind of the whole point of having divisional championship races-- they tend to decide the championships, they are really important because they draw ALL the horses from across the country, and-- and this is important-- they have relegated races that were once far more important into preps that tend not to draw as strong a field.

If you compare the fields in the Woodward, year in and year out, to those in the Breeders' Cup Classic, the Classic field is almost always stronger (and larger). And that's true of EVERY circuit's big races-- the Awesome Again and the Santa Anita Handicap are not as strong as the BC Classic, the Stephen Foster and the Clark are not as strong as the BC Classic, etc.

Again, this was by design. Before the BC was created, a lot of times the top horses never met each other. California would have a top turf horse who might win the San Juan, Hollywood Invitational, and Oak Tree Invitational, and New York would have one who won the Sword Dancer, Turf Classic, and Man O'War, and we'd have no way to know who was better. (In practice, the New York horse would usually win the Eclipse Award, but that really didn't settle the matter.)

The point of these races was to get rid of that and have the top horses meet to decide championships. The flip side is that the prep races are basically never Eclipse-deciders anymore, and a number of them (especially in New York, such as the Woodward, JCGC, Turf Classic, and Champagne) used to be.

Bottom line, in the modern era, you should generally assume that any Eclipse Awards are up in the air until the BC races are run. If the BC race doesn't provide a clear answer, or some horse did something that outweighs it, fine, but the BC has got to be the starting point. That's the point of having a Breeders' Cup.

Agree. The Breeders Cup was invented among other reasons to decide champions.

That's why I can't figure why you think AP is such a lock.

If she beats him in the Classic she beats him for HOY.

I'm 100% sure of that.

Let's hope we get to find out.

[iceknight]

I love Zenyatta.. but Rachel's HOY was a fully deserving one, she had 3 major wins over boys and one was was Woodward (9f). Zenyatta had only one major win over boys that year - yes it was 10f.. but come on.. They don't do joint HOY awards.. so it had to be given to one.

By the way, Beholder is no cake walk in the BCC, but she will definitely be overbet.

[Stillriledup]

Agree. The Breeders Cup was invented among other reasons to decide champions.

That's why I can't figure why you think AP is such a lock.

If she beats him in the Classic she beats him for HOY.

I'm 100% sure of that.

Let's hope we get to find out.

It's tiring to race the entire year, some horses are over the top a bit and aren't Peaking in late October. The BC is just one race, the award is an award for the horse who had the best accomplishments in a 12 month span, a 12 month span is more telling than one race.

[v j stauffer]

It's tiring to race the entire year, some horses are over the top a bit and aren't Peaking in late October. The BC is just one race, the award is an award for the horse who had the best accomplishments in a 12 month span, a 12 month span is more telling than one race.

The Super Bowl is just one football game.

[taxicab]

Even if Beholder beats AP in the Classic,AP will still win HOY.
The Breeders Cup Classic has a winner every year.........how often does a horse win the Triple Crown ?

[Stillriledup]

The Super Bowl is just one football game.

Horse racing isn't a "league" that runs races specifically to see who is the best in one particular race. If you want to give the HOY to the winner of the BCC, why not change the award from HOY to the "winner of the breeders cup classic award"?

Or, change the BCC to the "official horse of the year" race?

Not every BCC winner has won HOY, but every Super Bowl winner was that years NFL champion.

The HOY goes to one of the best horses who did the most over a 12 month span, personally I would rather see 12 months of accomplishments decide HOY rather than one race, anyone can get lucky once.

[lamboguy]

i agree, winning the Breeders Cup should get her HOY. but actually winning that race off her last cupcake race is another story in itself. i love the horse and hope she runs a big race in the Classic if she goes that way

i love AMERICAN PHAROAH as well and if he trains well going into that race i would expect his best race of his career..

[MJC922]

If the industry is going to put so much emphasis on the triple crown races to the point where people feel the need to push their horses early and often enough to get there, then awarding HOY should be a given when someone finally manages to pull it off.

Plus IMO taking the Haskell in style completely slammed the door on another horse having a prayer at it this year. If AP lost the Haskell AND lost the Travers AND IF Beholder takes the classic with AP in the same race then and only then would I suspect Beholder gets HOY.

The only chance it isn't set in stone at this moment is if she somehow wins the classic by a pole. Not worth spending a lot of time mulling that over IMO.

[MJC922]

With that being said this shapes up IMO as the race of the decade. How often will we see a TC winner, plus a mare who beat the boys the way Beholder did, thrown in against some very exciting older horses. Honor Code likes to come from last, Liam's Map free-running. Even if I didn't bet a dime on it I would pay money to see this race.

[Fager Fan]

I think the caveat is that she needs to win dominantly (pref. under a hand ride) and she needs AP to not race great in defeat. If AP races his eyeballs out and is an impressive 2nd to Beholder, he's prob HOY.

If ANY horse wins this Classic in a hand ride, we'd be disappointed. That would mean all the others didn't bring their game.

[Fager Fan]

I was. I owe my career to Zenyatta. But I said publicly on TVG that Blame deserved to be HOTY.

Dottie Ingordo didn't talk to me for 6 months. :(

Speaking of Dottie, she took the credit for the first mating, the result of which was the world's slowest plodder. She might've thought the mare needed to have been injected with some speed.

[NY BRED]

AP danced at various tracks ran against worthy rivals and
Took the Triple Crown.

Beholder has enjoyed a great year running against zero
Competition.


The issue at this point is the physical condition of AP after a
Rough campaign as a 3 year old vs a 5 year old mare and
The level of competition ,pace scenario , post position draw
And track surface on BC day.

In other words, lots of moving part now and in the next few months
Before predicting who deserves Horse of the year

[classhandicapper]

I'm taking all bets on anyone other than American Pharoah winning HOTY no matter what he does in the Classic and no matter who wins it (for the record, I do have 1 vote and I already know who's getting it ;) ).

[Valuist]

Other than win the Pacific Classic, just what has Beholder done this year?

And people think she can win the HoY in a year in which a horse won the Triple Crown?

Her chances at Horse of the Year? Slim and none.

[ManU918]

Other than win the Pacific Classic, just what has Beholder done this year?

And people think she can win the HoY in a year in which a horse won the Triple Crown?

Her chances at Horse of the Year? Slim and none.

Total buzzkill. I'm trying to offer the man 5-1 and you follow that up with slim to none. LOL.... Nah he seems pretty confident that if she wins the Classic that she will go on to win HOY. Offshore has her at 3/1 right now to win the Classic so 5-1 should do it.

[Valuist]

I guess anything is possible. Unbridled not only won the BC Classic but the Derby in 1990 but the HoY went to Criminal Type. :bang: THAT was criminal.

[v j stauffer]

PA won't let us talk about this on a public forum but I'd be willing to bet you right now that she won't win HOY. I'll give you 5-1. PM me If interested. My guess is that you will get 2 or 3-1 on her on BC day and if you think she wins the BC then is a cinch to win HOY, 5-1 should offer a ton of value.

( for entertainment purposes only)

I have no idea who I think will win a race that won't be run for 30 days.

My HOY opinion is based on the speculation of her winning.

I have no desire to incorporate any other factors into the equation.

However, if you wish to make an offer contingent on her winning the BC. I'm all ears.

[v j stauffer]

Other than win the Pacific Classic, just what has Beholder done this year?

And people think she can win the HoY in a year in which a horse won the Triple Crown?

Her chances at Horse of the Year? Slim and none.

Duh! If the vote was tomorrow you've capped it out well. He'd probably barely squeak by with a margin of 99 - 1 percent.

That's not what were talking about.

This speculation is based on if she beats AP in the Breeders Cup Classic.

Sorry PA members. I know this is a tad snotty.

But, CMON MAN.

[Robert Fischer]

Duh! If the vote was tomorrow you've capped it out well. He'd probably barely squeak by with a margin of 99 - 1 percent.

That's not what were talking about.

This speculation is based on if she beats AP in the Breeders Cup Classic.

Sorry PA members. I know this is a tad snotty.

But, CMON MAN.

So he retires today wins 99-1, and if he races and loses then She wins?

[v j stauffer]

I'm taking all bets on anyone other than American Pharoah winning HOTY no matter what he does in the Classic and no matter who wins it (for the record, I do have 1 vote and I already know who's getting it ;) ).

Just a guess. But I expect the NTRA wouldn't be real thrilled with this post. :confused:

[PaceAdvantage]

I agree that Blame should have been HOTY. He had a great year and beat Zenyatta when it counted.

The mistake was the previous year. The racing establishment is very much an east coast establishment, and so much of that-- hatred for the Breeders' Cup and how it destroyed the importance of the New York stakes schedule, hatred for synthetic tracks, hatred for California getting to host the Breeders' Cup so much, and just general disdain for the idea that winning a race in California could ever be as important as winning an old stakes race in New York-- it all came together to make the Rachel Alexandra Horse of the Year.

Had Zenyatta won it when she deserved it, Blame could have and probably would have won it when he deserved it. Instead, they did a make-up call.Again your anti-New York tirades leave you making little sense.

If the racing establishment were as you say, then they had AMPLE excuse to deny Zenyatta the award in 2010 as well. But they didn't...

Instead of a racing establishment east-coast bias, I suggest that instead, you have a massive inferiority complex when it comes to SoCal racing...

[HalvOnHorseracing]

It might be useful if the criteria for HOY (or any of the Eclipse awards for that matter) had more objectivity built in. In some universe we should be able to more objectively evaluate whether beating three-year olds-only in two of three "Triple Crown" races is the equivalent of getting beaten twice by another horse, including the BC Classic, later in the year. In that universe we would also know whether thoroughly dominating your peers throughout the year (Untapable, Main Sequence) puts you on equal footing for HOY with a horse that dominates its peers in the spring. We would have increased certainty about whether a dominating filly or turf horse or two year old should be given the award. Under the current system, whether Beholder or AP is voted HOY, the argument - at least the argument about whether the right choice was made - continues because by design the vote is subjective. As someone also pointed out, AP may get bonus support for keeping racing in the public eye during the Triple Crown run, and perhaps that element makes him deserving of "Horse" of the Year.

All that being said, if history is any indicator, AP has already accomplished more than CC did last year, and even if Beholder wins the classic, if AP is as close to her at the finish as CC was to Bayern, it would appear the HOY is his.

[v j stauffer]

So he retires today wins 99-1, and if he races and loses then She wins?

Don't quite understand what you're asking, but.

It's my opinion if the vote were held today he'd be 100% assured of winning.

It's also my opinion that if she runs in and wins the BC Classic she will win.

His retiring or not is probably not that relevant. Although ironically if he did retire today, due to injury, not by choice of the owners, it might be very slightly better for his chances in the HOY vote.

Certainly wouldn't be better for us fans. If the field comes together that we hope it has a chance to be one of the great BC classics.

In addition to the two we are talking about. I couldn't not knock anyone who thinks any of the following has a legitimate chance to win.

HONOR CODE
LIAM'S MAP
TONALIST
FROSTED
KEEN ICE
SMOOTH ROLLER
CRIMSON GIANT

Great stuff indeed.

[Fager Fan]

Other than win the Pacific Classic, just what has Beholder done this year?

And people think she can win the HoY in a year in which a horse won the Triple Crown?

Her chances at Horse of the Year? Slim and none.

You all are humorous. If she wins the Classic she'll beat the best field assembled this year. She'll have beaten the TC winner, and horses that the TC winner never beat.

In addition, she'll have done what no filly or mare has done in the history of the BC which is win a Classic on dirt. That's 31 years - not too far off the 37 some of you keep touting.

I'd understand more if AP looked like a beast, but there seem to be a number of better 3yos than him in these 37 years regardless of any of the results of their TC run.

[clocker7]

It might be useful if the criteria for HOY (or any of the Eclipse awards for that matter) had more objectivity built in. In some universe we should be able to more objectively evaluate whether beating three-year olds-only in two of three "Triple Crown" races is the equivalent of getting beaten twice by another horse, including the BC Classic, later in the year. In that universe we would also know whether thoroughly dominating your peers throughout the year (Untapable, Main Sequence) puts you on equal footing for HOY with a horse that dominates its peers in the spring. We would have increased certainty about whether a dominating filly or turf horse or two year old should be given the award. Under the current system, whether Beholder or AP is voted HOY, the argument - at least the argument about whether the right choice was made - continues because by design the vote is subjective. As someone also pointed out, AP may get bonus support for keeping racing in the public eye during the Triple Crown run, and perhaps that element makes him deserving of "Horse" of the Year.

All that being said, if history is any indicator, AP has already accomplished more than CC did last year, and even if Beholder wins the classic, if AP is as close to her at the finish as CC was to Bayern, it would appear the HOY is his.

I agree that if AP runs close to any winner, then the award is his and rightfully so. But to compare to what happened last year is more complex that what you posted. CC came off an unfortunate injury, and returned to be very competitive in spite of his forced layoff. And the fact that he was closing faster than anyone on Bayern at the end of the BCC worked in his favor.

The HOY is AP's to lose. Should he fade, and should the rest of his 3 yo mate(s) also throw in a clinker, then his TC will be looked at in a different light, imo. But if any loss of his is only a few lengths and another 3 yo runs forwardly, then he will win in a landslide.

[v j stauffer]

You all are humorous. If she wins the Classic she'll beat the best field assembled this year. She'll have beaten the TC winner, and horses that the TC winner never beat.

In addition, she'll have done what no filly or mare has done in the history of the BC which is win a Classic on dirt. That's 31 years - not too far off the 37 some of you keep touting.

I'd understand more if AP looked like a beast, but there seem to be a number of better 3yos than him in these 37 years regardless of any of the results of their TC run.

You were on a perfect roll till that last sentence.

He IS a BEAST. He won the TC and trounced his opposition. An amazing legendary accomplishment.

Yes, one could make the case there were other 3 yo's during the 37 year drought that were better horses.

SPECTACULAR BID
POINT GIVEN
SMARTY JONES
AP INDY
CRIMSON GIANT

Problem is they DIDN'T do it. AP did. Scoreboard baby.

[Stillriledup]

You were on a perfect roll till that last sentence.

He IS a BEAST. He won the TC and trounced his opposition. An amazing legendary accomplishment.

Yes, one could make the case there were other 3 yo's during the 37 year drought that were better horses.

SPECTACULAR BID
POINT GIVEN
SMARTY JONES
AP INDY
CRIMSON GIANT

Problem is they DIDN'T do it. AP did. Scoreboard baby.

Crimson giant? Where's Modesto Linares when you need him!! :D

[v j stauffer]

Crimson giant? Where's Modesto Linares when you need him!! :D

Fresno

[classhandicapper]

Just a guess. But I expect the NTRA wouldn't be real thrilled with this post. :confused:

I'm having a little fun.

Anyone that thinks AP is not getting HOTY this year is absolutely nuts. This is an easier vote than either Slew against Forego, or even more extreme, Affirmed against Slew, and both times it went to the Triple Crown winner. Anything other than a huge landslide vote would be the biggest sports upset since Douglas KO'd Tyson.

[cj]

Based on Beholder supposedly beating garbage cans. Neither has beaten the best out there.

We don't really know, I just thought garbage cans was a bit ridiculous. Horses that have lost to American Pharoah have done pretty well in races he hasn't competed in.

Both are outstanding race horses. It will be a pleasure to watch them square off, along with a couple others that could be as good.

[v j stauffer]

I'm having a little fun.

Anyone that thinks AP is not getting HOTY this year is absolutely nuts. This is a WAY easier vote than either Slew against Forego or Affirmed against Slew and both times that went to the Triple Crown winner. Anything other than a huge landslide vote would be the biggest sports upset since Douglas KO'd Tyson.

Or Avenue Q beating Wicked.

Well saying I'm absolutely nuts seems to be nothing new.

Perhaps you're right.

But I am one of those crazy's who thinks if she wins the BC Classic she'll be voted HOY.

Only time will tell.

[cj]

I agree that Blame should have been HOTY. He had a great year and beat Zenyatta when it counted.

The mistake was the previous year. The racing establishment is very much an east coast establishment, and so much of that-- hatred for the Breeders' Cup and how it destroyed the importance of the New York stakes schedule, hatred for synthetic tracks, hatred for California getting to host the Breeders' Cup so much, and just general disdain for the idea that winning a race in California could ever be as important as winning an old stakes race in New York-- it all came together to make the Rachel Alexandra Horse of the Year.

Had Zenyatta won it when she deserved it, Blame could have and probably would have won it when he deserved it. Instead, they did a make-up call.

It sounds like a kid from New York moved to your town when you were a kid and gave you a wedgie and you're still holding a grudge. The year Zenyatta truly deserved Horse of the Year was her four year old season in my opinion, not either of the next two.

[v j stauffer]

It sounds like a kid from New York moved to your town when you were a kid and gave you a wedgie and you're still holding a grudge. The year Zenyatta truly deserved Horse of the Year was her four year old season in my opinion, not either of the next two.

Sharp post

[classhandicapper]

Well saying I'm absolutely nuts seems to be nothing new.



:lol:

She's a great mare. If she wins the Classic, she'll have 4 Grade 1 victories, 2 against males, and a win over AP. That's a great year for a mare and deserves a statue given her full career.

AP will have 5 Grade 1 wins, 3 of which made up the Triple Crown.

There's just no way the Pacific Classic and BC Classic are going to outweigh the Arkansas Derby, KY Derby, Preakness, Belmont, Haskell, and historical significance of the Triple Crown.

[classhandicapper]

It sounds like a kid from New York moved to your town when you were a kid and gave you a wedgie and you're still holding a grudge. The year Zenyatta truly deserved Horse of the Year was her four year old season in my opinion, not either of the next two.

That's the funny thing. The credit she eventually earned from skeptics came from her win in the Classic and then maybe even more so from the 2nd in the Classic on dirt. But like many fillies she was probably at her best at 4.

[Fager Fan]

You were on a perfect roll till that last sentence.

He IS a BEAST. He won the TC and trounced his opposition. An amazing legendary accomplishment.

Yes, one could make the case there were other 3 yo's during the 37 year drought that were better horses.

SPECTACULAR BID
POINT GIVEN
SMARTY JONES
AP INDY
CRIMSON GIANT

Problem is they DIDN'T do it. AP did. Scoreboard baby.

A 109 Beyer and 2 1/4 rag isn't a beast. Very good but not a beast.

What this TC showed me is that a very good horse can win the TC , it doesn't take a great.

You forgot Holy Bull.

[v j stauffer]

A 109 Beyer and 2 1/4 rag isn't a beast. Very good but not a beast.

What this TC showed me is that a very good horse can win the TC , it doesn't take a great.

You forgot Holy Bull.

Good call Holy Bull indeed.

TOTALLY disagree with the "very good horse" take. Triple Crowns are ONLY won by GREAT and I mean GRRRREAT horses.

Winning the TC demands greatness and makes you GREAT even if you hadn't been up to that point.

AP is and will always be a truly GREAT horse.

[v j stauffer]

:lol:

She's a great mare. If she wins the Classic, she'll have 4 Grade 1 victories, 2 against males, and a win over AP. That's a great year for a mare and deserves a statue given her full career.

AP will have 5 Grade 1 wins, 3 of which made up the Triple Crown.

There's just no way the Pacific Classic and BC Classic are going to outweigh the Arkansas Derby, KY Derby, Preakness, Belmont, Haskell, and historical significance of the Triple Crown.

Will her kickin his ass in the BC Classic add any significance?

I'm not saying that will happen. But if it does...........

Remember we are still talking about horse racing. Competing on the track to see who get's to the wire first.

If she does over a Triple Crown winner..................

Just sayin.

[thaskalos]

What happens if Beholder wins the Classic impressively...while the Pharoah finishes a distant 4th?

[Tom]

She gets FM of the Year and AP great HOY.

[v j stauffer]

She gets FM of the Year and AP great HOY.

If she's outrun by 53 lengths she gets FM of the year.

If she wins the Classic she WILL FOR SURE win HOY.

Don't forget the human connection factor.

Baffert and Zayat aren't exactly revered by the folks that are voting.

In fact very few people I know even like either one of them.

I think her winning would give some voters the opportunity to stick it to Baffert and Zayat.

It sure would be a perk for me. Baffert not Zayat. Zayat always been very nice and gracious to me. Both he and Justin went out of their way to reach out to me after Paynter's comeback win.

[thaskalos]

I understand the historical significance of the Triple Crown and everything...but we must not forget that the TC races are still "restricted races". If the TC races can trump anything else that an older horse might do...then the older horses are not racing on a level playing-field, as far as the HOY vote is concerned.

The HOY vote should hinge on one very simple consideration, as far as I am concerned...and this should have nothing to do with the "popularity" of the particular horses. The question that the HOY voters should ponder before voting should simply be this:

"Which horse has proven, over the past year, to be the best and fastest horse in the land?"

Of course...this question isn't necessarily resolved in the BC Classic, because, as we all know...there are plenty of ways for the best horse to lose a particular race...even a race of the utmost significance. The HOY voters should ask themselves: "If the BC Classic were to be run again, and knowing what I know up until now...whom do I think would win?"

And the top vote-getter gets the prize.

[Tom]

If she's outrun by 53 lengths she gets FM of the year.


Don't forget the human connection factor.
Baffert and Zayat aren't exactly revered by the folks that are voting.
In fact very few people I know even like either one of them.
I think her winning would give some voters the opportunity to stick it to Baffert and Zayat.



I would hope people voting would understand that it is not about them but the game. I guess with all the blooming idiots in the game that won't happen.

But fillies and mares have beaten the boys a lot of time. We get a TC winner every 37 years. And all but two of Beholder's raes will have been in restricted company, too.

[cj]

I understand the historical significance of the Triple Crown and everything...but we must not forget that the TC races are still "restricted races". If the TC races can trump anything else that an older horse might do...then the older horses are not racing on a level playing-field, as far as the HOY vote is concerned.

The HOY vote should hinge on one very simple consideration, as far as I a concerned...and this should have nothing to do with the "popularity" of the particular horses. The question that the HOY voters should ponder before voting should simply be this:

"Which horse has proven, over the past year, to be the best and fastest horse in the land?"

Of course...this question isn't necessarily resolved in the BC Classic, because, as we all know...there are plenty of ways for the best horse to lose a particular race...even a race of the utmost significance. The HOY voters should ask themselves: "If the BC Classic were to be run again, and knowing what I know up until now...whom do I think would win?"

And the top vote-getter gets the prize.

They are restricted races, but they are the Holy Grail of horse racing in the United States. I'm not saying I agree that should be the deciding factor, but I suspect that is what will happen.

That said, you never know. People are getting less and less conservative and always looking to take a stand and differentiate themselves from the crowd rather than just following the status quo. I wouldn't be shocked if a Classic win by Beholder gave her the title. It was only two years ago the 3yo filly crown was all but sealed and and delivered to Princess of Sylmar after the Alabama, but Beholder wound up winning that one.

[classhandicapper]

I understand the historical significance of the Triple Crown and everything...but we must not forget that the TC races are still "restricted races". If the TC races can trump anything else that an older horse might do...then the older horses are not racing on a level playing-field, as far as the HOY vote is concerned.

The HOY vote should hinge on one very simple consideration, as far as I am concerned...and this should have nothing to do with the "popularity" of the particular horses. The question that the HOY voters should ponder before voting should simply be this:

"Which horse has proven, over the past year, to be the best and fastest horse in the land?"

Of course...this question isn't necessarily resolved in the BC Classic, because, as we all know...there are plenty of ways for the best horse to lose a particular race...even a race of the utmost significance. The HOY voters should ask themselves: "If the BC Classic were to be run again, and knowing what I know up until now...whom do I think would win?"

And the top vote-getter gets the prize.

I don't think "best" is great because "best" could be for a short period of time vs. a horse that was almost as good but accomplished way more.

What constitutes best, your speed figures, my class ratings, or someone else's figures?

Do we include my bias notes?

How about Trakus ground loss?

How about pace figures?

That's why I think people look at accomplishments more in these votes. It takes a huge layer of subjectiveness out of the process.

I think the Derby carries more weight than most Grade 1 races for older horses because it is national, very deep, and historically significant. Only the Classic may carry more weight. The Preakness and Belmont probably carry less weight. However, winning all 3 races of the Triple Crown probably carries more weight than any combination of any 3 races for older because it's such a tough test.

[thaskalos]

They are restricted races, but they are the Holy Grail of horse racing in the United States. I'm not saying I agree that should be the deciding factor, but I suspect that is what will happen.


Yes, it's true...this is what will probably happen. And it's also true that these awards are nothing more than a chance for the "elites" of the game to showcase their fancy wardrobe. But things should change...so that this award really STANDS for something. You can't call one horse the "Horse of the Year"...when some other horse on the ballot is obviously the better, faster horse.

[v j stauffer]

I understand the historical significance of the Triple Crown and everything...but we must not forget that the TC races are still "restricted races". If the TC races can trump anything else that an older horse might do...then the older horses are not racing on a level playing-field, as far as the HOY vote is concerned.

The HOY vote should hinge on one very simple consideration, as far as I am concerned...and this should have nothing to do with the "popularity" of the particular horses. The question that the HOY voters should ponder before voting should simply be this:

"Which horse has proven, over the past year, to be the best and fastest horse in the land?"

Of course...this question isn't necessarily resolved in the BC Classic, because, as we all know...there are plenty of ways for the best horse to lose a particular race...even a race of the utmost significance. The HOY voters should ask themselves: "If the BC Classic were to be run again, and knowing what I know up until now...whom do I think would win?"

And the top vote-getter gets the prize.

Pretty much spot on IMO.

I would say it this way. Which horse ACCOMPLISHED the most in the totality of the entire season.

Most years a BC win would have to be integrated into those accomplishments but not always.

Rachael Alexandra for example.

Very sharp post!

[v j stauffer]

I would hope people voting would understand that it is not about them but the game. I guess with all the blooming idiots in the game that won't happen.

But fillies and mares have beaten the boys a lot of time. We get a TC winner every 37 years. And all but two of Beholder's raes will have been in restricted company, too.

We keep ignoring the 1000lb elephant in the room.

Their impending head to head matchup.

[v j stauffer]

Yes, it's true...this is what will probably happen. And it's also true that these awards are nothing more than a chance for the "elites" of the game to showcase their fancy wardrobe. But things should change...so that this award really STANDS for something. You can't call one horse the "Horse of the Year"...when some other horse on the ballot is obviously the better, faster horse.

Sure you can. If he or she was better and faster for a couple races but not sound enough to complete an entire season of greatness that horse would not qualify.

By that reasoning we should all simply call Jerry Brown or Len Ragozin and ask them who HOY is.

[cj]

...and again, let's not go crazy over what Beholder has done. She ran a great race and beat so so males in the Pacific Classic. To her credit, she crushed them. It was impressive.

The rest of her schedule has been really weak. Do we want our Horse of the Year to win two meaningful races.

She won an ungraded stakes and a weak G3 restricted to females. Then she won a weak G1 restricted to females (I can't get too excited about beating Yahilwa and Warren's Venada 2x) before the Pacific Classic. Then, she ran in another sad excuse for a G1 that was sex restricted.

At the least American Pharoah has showed up in every big race he was supposed to show up in as a top colt. What more can you ask of him? To me, he could be eased in the Classic and he is still horse of the year. He has accomplished the most regardless of who might beat him at Keeneland.

[classhandicapper]

I've been more wrong about Beholder than any other major horse I can think of.

Early in her 3yo career I was arguing they should point for the Test because she was a better sprinter.

She beat me out of a monster exacta ticket in the Kentucky Oaks by running 2nd despite the fast pace.

I tossed her and ran second to her in the Pacific Classic.

I'll be leaving her off most, if not all, of my tickets in the BC Classic if she goes off as the favorite or more likely second choice to AP. So maybe everyone should just single her.

[v j stauffer]

...and again, let's not go crazy over what Beholder has done. She ran a great race and beat so so males in the Pacific Classic. To her credit, she crushed them. It was impressive.

The rest of her schedule has been really weak. Do we want our Horse of the Year to win two meaningful races.

She won an ungraded stakes and a weak G3 restricted to females. Then she won a weak G1 restricted to females (I can't get too excited about beating Yahilwa and Warren's Venada 2x) before the Pacific Classic. Then, she ran in another sad excuse for a G1 that was sex restricted.

At the least American Pharoah has showed up in every big race he was supposed to show up in as a top colt. What more can you ask of him? To me, he could be eased in the Classic and he is still horse of the year. He has accomplished the most regardless of who might beat him at Keeneland.

Salient case.

Here's mine in return.

If she wins the BC her resume will be the following

Undefeated season. He can't say that.

Two Grade One victories over males. Yes the others were against weak competition. But that take is tired and VERY hard to quantify. Great horses always make their competition look very bad.

And assuming she wins BC 1 for 1 in their only head to head matchup.

Be VERY hard to vote against her IMO.

[cj]

I've been more wrong about Beholder than any other major horse I can think of.

Early in her 3yo career I was arguing they should point for the Test because she was a better sprinter.

She beat me out of a monster exacta ticket in the Kentucky Oaks by running 2nd despite the fast pace.

I tossed her and ran second to her in the Pacific Classic.

I'll be leaving her off most, if not all, of my tickets in the BC Classic if she goes off as the second choice. So maybe everyone should just single her.

Looking back, that Oaks was just a monstrous race, as was her Distaff win. It is scary to think how many races she could have won if not for some injuries.

[cj]

Salient case.

Here's mine in return.

If she wins the BC her resume will be the following

Undefeated season. He can't say that.

Two Grade One victories over males. Yes the others were against weak competition. But that take is tired and VERY hard to quantify. Great horses always make their competition look very bad.

And assuming she wins BC 1 for 1 in their only head to head matchup.

Be VERY hard to vote against her IMO.

I get that, she would be a highly deserving candidate. She is great. I just don't think it is enough to overcome a Triple Crown. He delivered what many thought impossible any longer, and did it easily.

[v j stauffer]

I get that, she would be a highly deserving candidate. She is great. I just don't think it is enough to overcome a Triple Crown. He delivered what many thought impossible any longer, and did it easily.

Fair enough.

You ****ing Moron!!! :)

[thaskalos]

Sure you can. If he or she was better and faster for a couple races but not sound enough to complete an entire season of greatness that horse would not qualify.

By that reasoning we should all simply call Jerry Brown or Len Ragozin and ask them who HOY is.
I already specified that I was talking about YEAR'S END. The voters should vote on whomever they consider to be the best at year's end. And, in horse racing...the "best" is determined by victories against top-level competition...and by unusually fast running times. And if the Pharoah fails in the Classic...then he comes up short in meeting either of these two requirements, IMO...his TC run notwithstanding.

These refined speed ratings have become an unavoidable part of the game, Vic. They are not ignored by competent horseplayers...and they shouldn't be ignored by competent HOY voters either...IMO.

[Stillriledup]

I get that, she would be a highly deserving candidate. She is great. I just don't think it is enough to overcome a Triple Crown. He delivered what many thought impossible any longer, and did it easily.

People have short memories in this game but I do agree it's going to have to take an extenuating circumstance for AP to lose HOY.

[classhandicapper]

Looking back, that Oaks was just a monstrous race, as was her Distaff win. It is scary to think how many races she could have won if not for some injuries.

She's great.

She's 15-20 and arguably an injury cost her 1 race, a hot pace in a race loaded with speed another by just 1/2 length, 2 on synthetic that she wasn't as good on, and one race that was a very subpar prep after her BC Juvenile race.

[v j stauffer]

I already specified that I was talking about YEAR'S END. The voters should vote on whomever they consider to be the best at year's end. And, in horse racing...the "best" is determined by victories against top-level competition...and by unusually fast running times. And if the Pharoah fails in the Classic...then he comes up short in meeting either of these two requirements, IMO...his TC run notwithstanding.

These refined speed ratings have become an unavoidable part of the game, Vic. They are not ignored by competent horseplayers...and they shouldn't be ignored by competent HOY voters either...IMO.

Very good.

It's all academic anyway.

Liam's Map is going to put them all to sleep on the front end and Honor Code is going to pick up the pieces for 2nd.

Oh wait. Isn't Liam's Map trained by Todd Pletcher? Isn't he 13 for 1046 in the BC?

Never mind.

[cj]

I'll also add that American Pharoah has every right to be tailing off after his campaign. They aren't machines. He was great for a long stretch and maybe he'll run great again. I won't be betting on it though!

[classhandicapper]

These refined speed ratings have become an unavoidable part of the game, Vic. They are not ignored by competent horseplayers...and they shouldn't be ignored by competent HOY voters either...IMO.

What about when they disagree, sometimes wildly, in dozens of races every day?

[v j stauffer]

What about when they disagree, sometimes wildly, in dozens of races every day?

That's like saying the Racing Form PP's disagree wildly in dozens of races every day.

The speed figures are a tool nothing more nothing less.

[v j stauffer]

I'll also add that American Pharoah has every right to be tailing off after his campaign. They aren't machines. He was great for a long stretch and maybe he'll run great again. I won't be betting on it though!

I think he is totally tailing off. Who wouldn't?

Sometimes close votes can lean the way of the "now" horse.

We'll see.

[classhandicapper]

That's like saying the Racing Form PP's disagree wildly in dozens of races every day.

The speed figures are a tool nothing more nothing less.

I'm not sure what you mean. The PPs don't change, people's interpretations of them are different. I have always looked at multiple sets of speed figures hoping to find an edge. They often disagree by substantial amounts even before I start trying to interpret them. If we are going to add figures into the mix for awards, whose figures are we going to use?

[Robert Fischer]

It doesn't matter who is better or who wins the Classic. He won the triple crown. It's over. He won the HOY when he won the Belmont.

It's been 37 years since that has been done. It could be done the next 10 years, but it will not be done again before the voting.


You can't do anything bigger for racing than win the triple crown after a 37 year drought.

[cj]

I'm not sure what you mean. The PPs don't change, people's interpretations of them are different. I have always looked at multiple sets of speed figures hoping to find an edge. They often disagree by substantial amounts even before I start trying to interpret them. If we are going to add figures into the mix for awards, whose figures are we going to use?

Mine of course.

[thaskalos]

I'm not sure what you mean. The PPs don't change, people's interpretations of them are different. I have always looked at multiple sets of speed figures hoping to find an edge. They often disagree by substantial amounts even before I start trying to interpret them. If we are going to add figures into the mix for awards, whose figures are we going to use?
You keep saying 'we", CH. Do you have a HOY vote?

[nijinski]

If she's outrun by 53 lengths she gets FM of the year.

If she wins the Classic she WILL FOR SURE win HOY.

Don't forget the human connection factor.

Baffert and Zayat aren't exactly revered by the folks that are voting.

In fact very few people I know even like either one of them.

I think her winning would give some voters the opportunity to stick it to Baffert and Zayat.

It sure would be a perk for me. Baffert not Zayat. Zayat always been very nice and gracious to me. Both he and Justin went out of their way to reach out to me after Paynter's comeback win.. Baffert has not taken any credit for any of American Pharoah"s efforts . He has been very humble throughout the Triple Crown .. it would be a shame to see a horse denied an honor due to voters wanting to stick it to him as well as a shame on you to the voters .

[Fager Fan]

Yes, it's true...this is what will probably happen. And it's also true that these awards are nothing more than a chance for the "elites" of the game to showcase their fancy wardrobe. But things should change...so that this award really STANDS for something. You can't call one horse the "Horse of the Year"...when some other horse on the ballot is obviously the better, faster horse.

I'd add "AND puts together a competitive resume." For example, Shared Belief may be the best and fastest horse to race in 2015 but he just didn't put together a resume competitive with the two we're discussing.

[Fager Fan]

I'll also add that American Pharoah has every right to be tailing off after his campaign. They aren't machines. He was great for a long stretch and maybe he'll run great again. I won't be betting on it though!


He's run 7 times this year. That's not really that grueling. I understand he iwon 3 of them in 5 weeks but even Baffert admits it's not so hard to win the Preakness two weeks later for the horse who is in top form going into the Derby.

If you want to talk of a horse having an excuse to tail off, wouldn't that be the 5 yo Beholder and winner of 3 championships over 4 years?

[Fager Fan]

Good call Holy Bull indeed.

TOTALLY disagree with the "very good horse" take. Triple Crowns are ONLY won by GREAT and I mean GRRRREAT horses.

Winning the TC demands greatness and makes you GREAT even if you hadn't been up to that point.

AP is and will always be a truly GREAT horse.

That's what I thought until this year. AP has made me change my mind.

[Valuist]

Duh! If the vote was tomorrow you've capped it out well. He'd probably barely squeak by with a margin of 99 - 1 percent.

That's not what were talking about.

This speculation is based on if she beats AP in the Breeders Cup Classic.

Sorry PA members. I know this is a tad snotty.

But, CMON MAN.

I wouldn't f-ing matter. He's won the damned Triple Crown. One can say he had good trips; who cares? If Beholder wins the BC Classic with a 125 Beyer, it won't matter. For awards, accomplishment trumps performance. And winning a Triple Crown trumps winning the BC Classic and Pacific Classic.

BTW, it wasn't snotty. It was ignorant.

[Robert Fischer]

I don't know how many viewers and players and sponsors that American Pharoah has brought to the game with his year, but I do know that it's a massive landslide in his favor when compared to Beholder's year.

She's a female horse and the sponsors would be wise to tout the race as a 'Battle of the Sexes', but the trophy should already have been engraved and waiting.

[cj]

He's run 7 times this year. That's not really that grueling. I understand he iwon 3 of them in 5 weeks but even Baffert admits it's not so hard to win the Preakness two weeks later for the horse who is in top form going into the Derby.

If you want to talk of a horse having an excuse to tail off, wouldn't that be the 5 yo Beholder and winner of 3 championships over 4 years?

No, she is lightly raced considering she is 5 and has had one race this year that wasn't a paid workout.

[MJC922]

Pharoah I'd estimate is 1/5 right now for HOY, and I agree with CJ that's even if he finishes dead last in the Classic. The triple crown accomplishment weighs very heavily.

Even if Beholder wins by a pole I still think Pharoah is at least 60/40, that's the only scenario though where I think it's even possible to consider an alternative. Honor Code doesn't enter into the picture IMO, even though he may be best and if he wins the Classic fair and square I will believe he's best... however I would vote for AP anyway. It's just the way the industry has structured itself.

[classhandicapper]

You keep saying 'we", CH. Do you have a HOY vote?

I have been referring to "we" in a generic way meaning "the voters". I'm thinking out loud about what might be the best way to think about these things.

I have been told I will have a vote this year for the first time. :jump: I want to be happy with that vote 20 years from now.

[VeryOldMan]

Great recent thread guys.

It's a shame that the modern game means promising horses often don't race after 3 and the Breeders Cup atomizes the top horses into multiple races.

So let's bring it on for this year. I would love to see Beholder against AP. And all the other top horses against AP too. Let's have a BC Classic that can be some sort of imitation of the huge fall handicap races in the past - Seattle Slew v. Affirmed, Affirmed v. Spectacular Bid, etc.

But, given how the modern day sport is constructed, doesn't AP have to be the Horse of the Year given that he's the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years? Even if he gets smoked by Beholder, Liams Map, whomever in the BC Classic - he has done something no other horse has done in almost 4 decades, and it's not like the "old day" where there was a fall series where they could go head-to-head multiple times to settle the score once and for all. I'm not sure one BC Classic win - unless it results in some sort of world record time against an amazing field and includes defeating AP - could ever be enough to win HOTY this year. Fun to have this argument, though.

[Fager Fan]

I don't think either will win the classic so it's a moot point. Neither has seen the likes of Liam's Map setting the pace. Here's a thought for you. No sooner than Churchill Downs implements the point system to get rid of speed/sprinter types and the TC is won.

[Stillriledup]

I have been referring to "we" in a generic way meaning "the voters". I'm thinking out loud about what might be the best way to think about these things.

I have been told I will have a vote this year for the first time. :jump: I want to be happy with that vote 20 years from now.

The '20 year rule' is part of the argument I made for Z over Blame.

[MJC922]

Leaving the door open a crack for Beholder isn't unreasonable. A blowout win makes it a serious consideration IMO. If you weigh triple crown winner and 1 for 3 afterwards. And then if she wins by a pole again she would then be 6 for 6 on the year, a mare with two blowout wins against G1 males the final in the Classic. That (to me) is freaky enough to seriously entertain the thought of overturning AP for HOY because it may well be decades before we ever see a mare do that again. I would bet money that I'll see several more triple crown winners before I see a mare do that. Again I don't think she'll win, and even a narrow victory IMO does nothing to change the bigger picture but with a blowout win she would definitely have huge momentum.

[thaskalos]

I don't think either will win the classic so it's a moot point. Neither has seen the likes of Liam's Map setting the pace. Here's a thought for you. No sooner than Churchill Downs implements the point system to get rid of speed/sprinter types and the TC is won.
My money says that the BC Classic will be won from off the pace.

[Redboard]

My money says that the BC Classic will be won from off the pace.

Why does your money say that? There doesn't appear to be a lot of speed in thecrace, at this point.

[rastajenk]

Here's a thought for you. No sooner than Churchill Downs implements the point system to get rid of speed/sprinter types and the TC is won.
What does the Derby point system have to do with winning the Belmont?

[cj]

I have been told I will have a vote this year for the first time.

Time for me to find a new line of work.

[dilanesp]

Well actually ironically I thought they got it right with Rachel as well. Her resume that year was clearly better than Queenie's.

Zenyatta was 5 for 5 and won the BC distaff.

Although Rachel did not make it to the BC. She was 8 for 8. Won the KY. Oaks and defeated males 3 times in the Preakness, Haskell and Woodward.

A Woodward where Calvin Borel had to ride he so hard she was never the same.

One of the GREAT mares of all time and amazingly she probably didn't deserve HOY either time she was up for it.

Go figure.

Vic, Zenyatta won the CLASSIC the year that Rachel won HOTY.

[dilanesp]

Again your anti-New York tirades leave you making little sense.

If the racing establishment were as you say, then they had AMPLE excuse to deny Zenyatta the award in 2010 as well. But they didn't...

Instead of a racing establishment east-coast bias, I suggest that instead, you have a massive inferiority complex when it comes to SoCal racing...

It was a MAKE UP CALL.

And they had already made their point the previous year about how the unimportant Breeders' Cup prep Woodward Stakes is so important that it's OK to duck the Breeders' Cup when your owners know you will get your butt kicked.

So they could give it to Zenyatta the next year without diminishing the point they had made.

I'm not ANTI-New York. I love me a great New York horse. I just think it's a shame that easterners control the sport, because they are very parochial and still think their races are more important than they really are.

[dilanesp]

Good call Holy Bull indeed.

TOTALLY disagree with the "very good horse" take. Triple Crowns are ONLY won by GREAT and I mean GRRRREAT horses.

Winning the TC demands greatness and makes you GREAT even if you hadn't been up to that point.

AP is and will always be a truly GREAT horse.

Vic, Omaha and Sir Barton not only weren't great horses, but they weren't really even near-great horses.

Meanwhile, some all time greats (Spectacular Bid, Native Dancer) went 2 for 3 in the TC.

[v j stauffer]

I'm not sure what you mean. The PPs don't change, people's interpretations of them are different. I have always looked at multiple sets of speed figures hoping to find an edge. They often disagree by substantial amounts even before I start trying to interpret them. If we are going to add figures into the mix for awards, whose figures are we going to use?

It doesn't matter as long as you stick with one set so you can compare and contrast.

ANY speed figure is a good thing. If I was forced to use ONLY one aspect of DRF PP's I'd choose the Beyer Figs.

And the Beyer's are NOTHING compared to Throrgraph or Ragozin. I can't imagine ever looking at a race without using the Thorograph sheets.

Jerry Brown is still very hands on with making the numbers. It's a class operation all the way. Jerry makes the BEST numbers. Period.

[v j stauffer]

. Baffert has not taken any credit for any of American Pharoah"s efforts . He has been very humble throughout the Triple Crown .. it would be a shame to see a horse denied an honor due to voters wanting to stick it to him as well as a shame on you to the voters .

Humble? Are you joking? He doesn't know the meaning of the word. It's an act for the media.

If Baffert's humble. I'm Frankie Dettori. :cool:

[v j stauffer]

I wouldn't f-ing matter. He's won the damned Triple Crown. One can say he had good trips; who cares? If Beholder wins the BC Classic with a 125 Beyer, it won't matter. For awards, accomplishment trumps performance. And winning a Triple Crown trumps winning the BC Classic and Pacific Classic.

BTW, it wasn't snotty. It was ignorant.

His accomplishments are massive. But as I've said many times. If she beats him heads up in the Classic her accomplishments will have been massive as well.

Furthermore you know nothing.

It was snotty not ignorant.

[v j stauffer]

I have been referring to "we" in a generic way meaning "the voters". I'm thinking out loud about what might be the best way to think about these things.

I have been told I will have a vote this year for the first time. :jump: I want to be happy with that vote 20 years from now.

You have an Eclipse Award vote? What do you do?

[v j stauffer]

Vic, Zenyatta won the CLASSIC the year that Rachel won HOTY.

Yeah I saw that but it was too late to edit. Good catch.

[classhandicapper]

Time for me to find a new line of work.

I'm lobbying for a vote on NBA MVP and won't vote for Durant until he becomes a Knick. ;)

[Saratoga_Mike]

It
I'm not ANTI-New York. I love me a great New York horse. I just think it's a shame that easterners control the sport, because they are very parochial and still think their races are more important than they really are.

In general, there are more important east races than west coast races. Sorry.

[iceknight]

You have an Eclipse Award vote? What do you do? <Classhandicapper voice> I don't do, I own.

[dilanesp]

In general, there are more important east races than west coast races. Sorry.

I'm not sure about total number. I've never made a claim that California has the same number as important races as New York. New York has lots of important races!

What I would contest, however, is that the BIG East Coast stakes are particularly more important. E.g., I don't particularly think the Woodward or the Whitney is more important than the Pacific Classic or a bigger deal to win. Or the Jockey Club Gold Cup versus the Awesome Again. Or the Wood Memorial versus the Santa Anita Derby, or the Hopeful versus the Del Mar Futurity.

And it isn't just about California-- the Stephen Foster is as big and important and difficult to win a race as the handicap division races on either coast. The Haskell is as big and important and difficult to win as any 3 year old race in America other than the TC. The Apple Blossom is as big and important and difficult to win as the Beldame or the Personal Ensign or the Zenyatta.

And everything (other than the Triple Crown) just completely pales in importance and difficulty to the Breeders' Cup. Nobody's races are as tough to win as the main Breeders' Cup races, which draw the best fields in American racing.

[Rex Phinney]

In general, there are more important east races than west coast races. Sorry.

We can't really discuss that until everyone comes to an agreement on quantity of races.

If you are saying there are more big time races at Aqueduct, Belmont, Saratoga, Gulfstream, Pimlico, Parx, Keeneland, Churchill, Oaklawn and Fairgrounds than there is at Santa Anita and Del Mar. Well then yeah, duh. There is about 10 states worth of racing compared to one.

That being said East Coast horses seem to have real problems when the west coasters show up at their parties in recent years. So quality as a whole is a push IMO.

[tophatmert]

The Cal poly experiment muddled things up for a few years as far as quality goes. A more consistent dirt schedule should bring Cal back . Losing Shared Belief and Cal Chrome really had an effect on Cal racing and all racing. The Awesome Again could have been one of the best races of the year with those two in. Dilanesp may be anti NY or pro Cal I'm not sure which but I would guess he follows Cal racing the most and likes cal racing the most . If you want to fit it with many here you will have to learn to hate your favorite circuit a little more.

[Valuist]

We can't really discuss that until everyone comes to an agreement on quantity of races.

If you are saying there are more big time races at Aqueduct, Belmont, Saratoga, Gulfstream, Pimlico, Parx, Keeneland, Churchill, Oaklawn and Fairgrounds than there is at Santa Anita and Del Mar. Well then yeah, duh. There is about 10 states worth of racing compared to one.

That being said East Coast horses seem to have real problems when the west coasters show up at their parties in recent years. So quality as a whole is a push IMO.

You've managed to lump a number of Midwest and southern tracks in with the East. Let's simplify it; Belmont & Saratoga > Santa Anita & Del Mar.

[dilanesp]

You've managed to lump a number of Midwest and southern tracks in with the East. Let's simplify it; Belmont & Saratoga > Santa Anita & Del Mar.

So the Whitney draws better fields than the Pacific Classic? The Suburban better than the Santa Anita Handicap? The Hopeful better than the Del Mar Futurity?

I highly doubt that.

[classhandicapper]

So the Whitney draws better fields than the Pacific Classic? The Suburban better than the Santa Anita Handicap?
I highly doubt that.

There are no rules.

IMO, the east coast racing has been better than the west coast racing in that division this year, but if CA Chrome and Shared Belief didn't get injured it would be the other way around.

[Rex Phinney]

There are no rules.

IMO, the east coast racing has been better than the west coast racing in that division this year, but if CA Chrome and Shared Belief didn't get injured it would be the other way around.

I'd say that's pretty fair.

In thinking about this it's sort of cyclical too. For example Winter and Spring is really a high water mark for California whereas Summer and Fall probably has more noteworthy events in NY.

[Stillriledup]

AP should be announced as HOY today, no need to wait.

[Donttellmeshowme]

Curious at everyone's thoughts! I say absolutely if she wins the Classic. If she doesn't, AP obviously the winner.






Ughhhhh Nooooooooooooooooooooooooo............

[Donttellmeshowme]

You've managed to lump a number of Midwest and southern tracks in with the East. Let's simplify it; Belmont & Saratoga > Santa Anita & Del Mar.




In terms of what? Better quality races? Bigger races? Bigger fields? Prettier women at the track?


I think you can make a case for both east coast and west coast.

[Tom]

AP should be announced as HOY today, no need to wait.

Next year, too! :D