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View Full Version : bring on the Pharoah


dilanesp
09-26-2015, 06:48 PM
Beholder is ready.

Stillriledup
09-26-2015, 07:56 PM
Why would she want to 'bring on' a horse who has no chance to beat her ?

cj
09-26-2015, 08:00 PM
Careful what you wish for....beating Catch a Flight and Bayern and My Sweet Addiction and Yahilwa isn't exactly the same thing she'll see in the Classic.

Kash$
09-26-2015, 08:08 PM
Careful what you wish for....beating Catch a Flight and Bayern and My Sweet Addiction and Yahilwa isn't exactly the same thing she'll see in the Classic.

She will be a tremendous underlay..

Credit her owners for racing her at 5

Stillriledup
09-26-2015, 08:10 PM
She will be a tremendous underlay..

Credit her owners for racing her at 5

I was thinking this would be true for AP, why do you think this?

thaskalos
09-26-2015, 08:12 PM
The PHAROAH will be the "tremendous underlay", IMO.

Kash$
09-26-2015, 08:26 PM
I was thinking this would be true for AP, why do you think this?

Shes heading into the race razor sharp..Plus i think alot of dumb money will be wagered on her just because fans love the Girl vs Boys ?

dilanesp
09-26-2015, 08:28 PM
Careful what you wish for....beating Catch a Flight and Bayern and My Sweet Addiction and Yahilwa isn't exactly the same thing she'll see in the Classic.

i don't think Keen Ice and Frosted are any better than the horses she crushed at Del Mar.

cj
09-26-2015, 08:36 PM
i don't think Keen Ice and Frosted are any better than the horses she crushed at Del Mar.

I do. And the older males certainly are.

thaskalos
09-26-2015, 08:50 PM
If things stay as they are until the BC Classic...who would be the favorite?

Valuist
09-26-2015, 08:54 PM
Beholder has a lot to prove getting away from the state of California. She might be able to beat Catch a Flight at 10 furlongs at Dmr, but this crowd at 10 furlongs over a CD surface will prove difficult for her. She's a bet against.

dilanesp
09-26-2015, 08:56 PM
Beholder has a lot to prove getting away from the state of California. She might be able to beat Catch a Flight at 10 furlongs at Dmr, but this crowd at 10 furlongs over a CD surface will prove difficult for her. She's a bet against.

I'm really sick of hearing how a second place finisher in the Ky Oaks can't ship.

Lemon Drop Husker
09-26-2015, 09:11 PM
She will be a tremendous underlay..

Credit her owners for racing her at 5

Yep, mad respect for running her as a 5YO.

Hope she runs in the Classic. And hope she goes off as the chalk, or 2nd chalk.

cbp
09-26-2015, 09:16 PM
She needs a LITTLE BIT better ride in the Classic

horses4courses
09-26-2015, 09:26 PM
AP and Beholder, at this point, will be very strongly bet.
I don't see either one going off at more than 3-1.
That's going to leave some juicy prices on the remainder.

The JC Gold Cup might have an impressive winner.
Honor Code could be that horse.
If he doesn't win that race, AP and Beholder could both be 2-1, or less.

Whether Honor Code wins the JCGC, or not, he has a big shot in the Classic.
I hope the other two get hyped to the max..... :ThmbUp:

Speed Figure
09-26-2015, 09:34 PM
AP will be 7-5!

Rex Phinney
09-26-2015, 10:46 PM
I'm really sick of hearing how a second place finisher in the Ky Oaks can't ship.

Don't take it too serious, from the looks of it Valuist hasnt even figured out that the race is not at Churchill...

Robert Fischer
09-26-2015, 10:47 PM
According to this thread AP will be 6-1 :).


American Pharoah
Beholder
Honor Code
Liam's Map
(someone I forgot? it's late)

All will be taking money. Maybe in that order? Idk.

Rex Phinney
09-26-2015, 10:49 PM
AP and Beholder, at this point, will be very strongly bet.
I don't see either one going off at more than 3-1.
That's going to leave some juicy prices on the remainder.

The JC Gold Cup might have an impressive winner.
Honor Code could be that horse.
If he doesn't win that race, AP and Beholder could both be 2-1, or less.

Whether Honor Code wins the JCGC, or not, he has a big shot in the Classic.
I hope the other two get hyped to the max..... :ThmbUp:

I'm going to get on board here, this is a three horse race between Beholder, AP and Honor Code. If the track is playing fair Honor Code is the play.

Rex Phinney
09-26-2015, 10:52 PM
If AP is in the gate he goes off no higher than 7/5.

horses4courses
09-26-2015, 11:04 PM
I'm going to get on board here, this is a three horse race between Beholder, AP and Honor Code. If the track is playing fair Honor Code is the play.

Liam's Map is a big pace factor.
Honor Code obviously needs a strong pace to run at.

I think the surface at Keeneland is about as fair as it gets, but we'll see.

horses4courses
09-26-2015, 11:07 PM
If AP is in the gate he goes off no higher than 7/5.

You're probably right about that.
He'll be the first TC winner to run in the BC.
Baffert will have to get him back on his "A game", though.

davew
09-26-2015, 11:13 PM
According to this thread AP will be 6-1 :).


American Pharoah
Beholder
Honor Code
Liam's Map
(someone I forgot? it's late)

All will be taking money. Maybe in that order? Idk.

if they run, then include

Keen Ice
Lea
Tonalist
Gleneagles
Frosted

taxicab
09-27-2015, 03:38 AM
Beholder is the poster child for thoroughbred class:
Today was her 9th Grade 1 victory.
In her 15 lifetime victories she has defeated over 30 Graded stakes winners. :eek: :eek:
She runs her races in what appears to be a measured gallop,with no concern for ground loss from Stevens......and then he stops on her in the lane because she's a pole better than everybody else.
And she's getting better....

Kash$
09-27-2015, 08:08 AM
Dont think Honor Code has a prayer

ManU918
09-27-2015, 08:29 AM
AP and Beholder, at this point, will be very strongly bet.
I don't see either one going off at more than 3-1.
That's going to leave some juicy prices on the remainder.

The JC Gold Cup might have an impressive winner.
Honor Code could be that horse.
If he doesn't win that race, AP and Beholder could both be 2-1, or less.

Whether Honor Code wins the JCGC, or not, he has a big shot in the Classic.
I hope the other two get hyped to the max..... :ThmbUp:

Honor Code would have to run in the JCGC to win it.

v j stauffer
09-27-2015, 08:35 AM
If AP is in the gate he goes off no higher than 7/5.

I think Beholder will be a very slight favorite at 3-1.

classhandicapper
09-27-2015, 10:15 AM
I think AP will be the favorite. He'll be hard to bet as a clear favorite, but IMO he's no easy toss.

People understand that AP was in an uncomfortable spot in the Travers and got pressed hard through a tough middle part of the race before putting away Frosted. Then Frosted came back with an excellent race and verified the quality of AP's race.

AP does not have to get involved in the pace like that. He's already shown he can relax off the lead and finish. That's what I'd expect him to do in the Classic.

The question for me is whether he's continuing to develop. In the Haskell it looked like a definitive YES. After the Haskell you could say he had peaked and had 3 more months of development to go before taking on the Classic field at a new peak for this season. Then they pushed him into the Travers where despite a solid effort it looked like he slipped a little. I would have waited for the Awesome Again instead. He's got a lot of time between the Travers and Classic. Baffert is great off these freshenings. The question for me is which direction he's heading. Have we seen his best for this season or is he growing, getting stronger, getting faster, and getting sharper like many 3yos do.

classhandicapper
09-27-2015, 10:17 AM
If Beholder wins the Classic she deserves a statue and a place on the short list of all time great mares.

horses4courses
09-27-2015, 10:23 AM
I think Beholder will be a very slight favorite at 3-1.

There is no way on this earth that AP goes off at 3-1, or more.
I'll be betting against him, and I'm hoping he is less than 2-1.

Robert Fischer
09-27-2015, 10:49 AM
What are the odds of a grey horse in the near future with the awful pun name "American Pharoan"? :blush:

Bigadam119
09-28-2015, 08:48 PM
I'm really sick of hearing how a second place finisher in the Ky Oaks can't ship.

How about the Ogden Phipps last year?

dilanesp
09-29-2015, 01:42 AM
How about the Ogden Phipps last year?

Running 1 bad race /= can't ship, where she ran another good race (in the relevant state).

Rex Phinney
09-29-2015, 02:47 AM
How about the Ogden Phipps last year?

The only horses ever accused of being bad shippers are always from California.

What happened when Princess of Sylmar and Close Hatches went cross country to Santa Anita???????????

They both tried that how many combined trophies came from it????????

cj
09-29-2015, 10:09 AM
How about the Ogden Phipps last year?

She was injured, I believe during the race.

classhandicapper
09-29-2015, 10:41 AM
She was injured, I believe during the race.

Yep. She came out of the race with a big gash and was given time off.

Bigadam119
09-29-2015, 12:14 PM
I would just think that when a horse has only won at two tracks (both of which are in CA) and failed to win at the other tracks he/she has shipped to, that concerns around shipping are valid.

Rex Phinney
09-29-2015, 02:51 PM
I would just think that when a horse has only won at two tracks (both of which are in CA) and failed to win at the other tracks he/she has shipped to, that concerns around shipping are valid.

In the Oaks she was just too close to the pace, placed a half length off a 46.79 half with that CD stretch to deal with. She lost by a neck to a horse who cruised 5 lengths off the lead the whole race. It's not like Beholder was up the track. It's horse racing things happen.

As mentioned before, both of her primary foes in 2013 and 2014 came out to California for the BC, how did that turn out?

"Shipping" means two very different things East coast vs. West Coast. "Shipping" on the east usually includes a fun little van ride for a few hours crossing over a few parking lot sized states. For example Close Hatches won the Cotillion, so you say "Oh what a great shipper she won in another state", but if she came from New York how far did she really ship?

"Shipping" from California is much different. The only place to van a horse to is within the state. Also in the east horses move bases between states. So just because a horse won a race at Gulfstream in the Winter/ Spring did he really "ship"? He was probably stabled there for 4 months.

Beholder won over plastic and dirt at Del Mar, she can run over anything. She looked fine at 10 furlongs in the Pacific Classic, but if you want to write her off because she lost a race by a neck in Kentucky 2.5 years ago, knock yourself out.

dilanesp
09-29-2015, 04:32 PM
The only horses ever accused of being bad shippers are always from California.

What happened when Princess of Sylmar and Close Hatches went cross country to Santa Anita???????????

They both tried that how many combined trophies came from it????????

This is a great point, and kind of gets at some of the issues people have with my comments on New York.

I love New York racing. Some of the best times I have had at a track have actually been at Belmont Park when I have been out. And I love a top New York stakes horse like an Easy Goer or a Cigar.

But there's just a sense that New York racing is the center of the universe, that their stakes are more important than everyone else's, that horses who win outside New York have something to prove whereas horses who win in New York do not, etc. It's very parochial and it affects how people think about a lot of issues.

The way I see it, there are several major circuits of American racing-- New York, Kentucky, California, and the winters in Florida and Arkansas. And ALL of them run big, important, championship races. In the past, Maryland had some big races too. And New Jersey has its moments.

And there shouldn't be a double standard where wins in New York count for more than wins elsewhere-- ESPECIALLY wins in Breeders' Cup races, which are quite a bit stronger than the stakes calendar in New York-- or where horses from other circuits are expected to ship to New York to prove themselves while New York horses aren't expected to ship out.

cj
09-29-2015, 06:31 PM
This is a great point, and kind of gets at some of the issues people have with my comments on New York.

I love New York racing. Some of the best times I have had at a track have actually been at Belmont Park when I have been out. And I love a top New York stakes horse like an Easy Goer or a Cigar.

But there's just a sense that New York racing is the center of the universe, that their stakes are more important than everyone else's, that horses who win outside New York have something to prove whereas horses who win in New York do not, etc. It's very parochial and it affects how people think about a lot of issues.

The way I see it, there are several major circuits of American racing-- New York, Kentucky, California, and the winters in Florida and Arkansas. And ALL of them run big, important, championship races. In the past, Maryland had some big races too. And New Jersey has its moments.

And there shouldn't be a double standard where wins in New York count for more than wins elsewhere-- ESPECIALLY wins in Breeders' Cup races, which are quite a bit stronger than the stakes calendar in New York-- or where horses from other circuits are expected to ship to New York to prove themselves while New York horses aren't expected to ship out.

I love betting SoCal horses when they ship out, I think they are great. But I have no illusions that the G1 races at Santa Anita or Del Mar are better than those at Belmont and Saratoga. The SoCal races just don't get the shippers like New York races do, and neither do most other places for that matter.

Cratos
09-29-2015, 11:56 PM
Beholder is ready.
I don't believe that Beholder could run the race AP did in the Travers which I have rated as one of the best performances of the year; another is Honor Code's Met Mile.

NorCalGreg
09-30-2015, 01:34 AM
What are the odds of a grey horse in the near future with the awful pun name "American Pharoan"? :blush:

Already scanned the PP's somewhere and saw a "50 SHADES OF BAY"

SandyW
09-30-2015, 02:11 AM
American Pharaoh will be an easy winner in the BC Classic.
After this short rest Baffert will have him sharper than a nail for the BC Classic.
I don't think Beholder will be in the money if she runs.

classhandicapper
09-30-2015, 11:05 AM
This is a great point, and kind of gets at some of the issues people have with my comments on New York.

I love New York racing. Some of the best times I have had at a track have actually been at Belmont Park when I have been out. And I love a top New York stakes horse like an Easy Goer or a Cigar.

But there's just a sense that New York racing is the center of the universe, that their stakes are more important than everyone else's, that horses who win outside New York have something to prove whereas horses who win in New York do not, etc. It's very parochial and it affects how people think about a lot of issues.

The way I see it, there are several major circuits of American racing-- New York, Kentucky, California, and the winters in Florida and Arkansas. And ALL of them run big, important, championship races. In the past, Maryland had some big races too. And New Jersey has its moments.

And there shouldn't be a double standard where wins in New York count for more than wins elsewhere-- ESPECIALLY wins in Breeders' Cup races, which are quite a bit stronger than the stakes calendar in New York-- or where horses from other circuits are expected to ship to New York to prove themselves while New York horses aren't expected to ship out.

I agree.

Year to year the relative strength of CA vs. NY changes by division. I don't think there are any firm rules. I also think from just observation that CA stakes horse have more than held their own in NY better than the other way around.

cj
09-30-2015, 11:10 AM
I agree.

Year to year the relative strength of CA vs. NY changes by division. I don't think there are any firm rules. I also think from just observation that CA stakes horse have more than held their own in NY better than the other way around.

New York horses have been doing very well when shipping west for turf races the last few years. Photo Call was just the latest of many examples.

classhandicapper
09-30-2015, 11:19 AM
New York horses have been doing very well when shipping west for turf races the last few years. Photo Call was just the latest of many examples.

I don't track turf as much as dirt but I recall you saying that last year.

I have the ability to track all shippers into NY, CA, KY, and FL closely now, but there are only so many hours in the day. I spend so much time with data I don't always have enough time to handicap. :bang:

Rex Phinney
09-30-2015, 02:03 PM
I agree.

Year to year the relative strength of CA vs. NY changes by division. I don't think there are any firm rules. I also think from just observation that CA stakes horse have more than held their own in NY better than the other way around.

There is no understating the change back to real dirt in California. It has allowed for the horses who can really be competitive all around the country to show themselves in the races out here.

The Derby for example since the switch back to dirt in California has seen horses from the O'neill, Sherman and Baffert barns win in just 4 years.

That never would have happened without the switch back to dirt.

I will say I think the turf horses on the east coast are better, Mainly because of guys like Clement, Ward and Motion out there, owners are smart to send their best turfers to those types.

Stillriledup
09-30-2015, 02:12 PM
There is no understating the change back to real dirt in California. It has allowed for the horses who can really be competitive all around the country to show themselves in the races out here.

The Derby for example since the switch back to dirt in California has seen horses from the O'neill, Sherman and Baffert barns win in just 4 years.

That never would have happened without the switch back to dirt.

I will say I think the turf horses on the east coast are better, Mainly because of guys like Clement, Ward and Motion out there, owners are smart to send their best turfers to those types.

Good points and ill add that the turf courses back east are real courses not the Rock hard parched land that the west coast calls turf. I remember back in the day when DMR used to have real turf, the horses feet would disappear because the grass was long WHERE DID THOSE DAYS GO!!

RacingFan1992
09-30-2015, 02:31 PM
I think Honor Code will win the Classic. I hope Kiaran Mclaughlin keeps Frosted's Travers jockey. You see what happened when American Pharoah was pressed. He drew away from Frosted and tried to make a run for it but was out of gas and ran down by Keen Ice. I'm thinking if Beholder, Frosted, and Liam's Map all push American Pharoah from the beginning I think Honor Code has the best chance to come from behind and run down a very tired American Pharoah. Imagine what would have happened had the jockey for Frosted in the Travers was riding him in the Belmont. I think they let AP run away with it. Nobody challenged him.

dilanesp
09-30-2015, 03:26 PM
I will say I think the turf horses on the east coast are better, Mainly because of guys like Clement, Ward and Motion out there, owners are smart to send their best turfers to those types.

The last several years, the New York grass horses have CLEARLY been better. No doubt about it. I've cashed several tickets because of that (though I missed out on Photo Call :( ).

Might have something to do with trainers, you are right. Back when we had Whittingham, Frankel, Drysdale, McAnally, et al., in their primes, California was more competitive.