Will/Can anyone go with Bayern?

[Todaysracingdigest]

Bayern sure looks like a Lone 'F' in the Awesome Again at Santa Anita on Saturday. You would think someone would go out with him, but who? It might be a damned if you do damned if you don't situation.

[Stillriledup]

Why get cute, isn't he an auto toss these days?

[LottaKash]

Why get cute, isn't he an auto toss these days?

Yes, it seems that Bayern has certainly lost his way recently...

[Kash$]

Why get cute, isn't he an auto toss these days?
If I only knew what GARCIA was going to DO OUT OF THE GATE.. :lol:

[tanner12oz]

Bayern sure looks like a Lone 'F' in the Awesome Again at Santa Anita on Saturday. You would think someone would go out with him, but who? It might be a damned if you do damned if you don't situation.

when horses are off firm I would throw everything you think.you know out the window

[NorCalGreg]

Bayern sure looks like a Lone 'F' in the Awesome Again at Santa Anita on Saturday. You would think someone would go out with him, but who? It might be a damned if you do damned if you don't situation.

This was almost my exact comment in the Pacific......someone went with him--Beholder made him and the rest look like they were running in quicksand.
I, and a ton of others, probably felt foolish for betting on Bayern.

[Robert Fischer]

+The switch back to Garcia, the fact that on paper no one wants to even press him, and the 4 nice works since the Pacific Classic are all positive signs.

- Not going to get much value for a horse who hasn't looked himself in 2015. He's got valid excuses for most of those races, but if you aren't sure whether Bayern is still Bayern or close to his old self, then it's going to be tough to 'guess' and accept low odds.

[NorCalGreg]

This was almost my exact comment in the Pacific......someone went with him--Beholder made him and the rest look like they were running in quicksand.
I, and a ton of others, probably felt foolish for betting on Bayern.


Just thought of something.......just when the crowd (us) gives up on a horse...they sometimes make us look even more foolish by turning it around and winning again. :mad: Don't forget who's training that horse......just listened to THAT HANDICAPPING SHOW Tom Lamarre is pulling me back into the Bayern-wire-to-wire camp LOL. There don't seem to be any unknown horses who just might run early with Bayern. Baff per usual wasn't tipping his hand at all. Who knows.

[Tee]

Smooth Roller will go with Bayern.

[cj]

Smooth Roller will go with Bayern.

If he can have any effect on Bayern early it is time for retirement for sure IMO.

[raybo]

Bayern possesses both the best low velocity and the best high velocity to the 1st call (FR1) in routes, a low of 53.49 fps and a high of 56.67 fps. The next best FR1 velocity horse is Hoppertunity with a low of 52.68 fps and a high of 55.46, with Imperative having a low of 52.42 and a high of 55.71.

Horse _______Low_____High
Bayern -------- 53.49 --- 56.67
Hoppertunity - 52.68 --- 55.46
Imperative ---- 52.42 --- 55.71

In their "good" races the running styles and early speed points are:
Bayern ------- E6
Hoppertunity - P0
Imperative --- P0

Their most frequent running styles and early speed points are:
Bayern ------- E6
Hoppertunity - S0
Imperative --- S0

So, not only is Bayern the only "E" horse, and has the highest early speed points by far, he also possesses the best 1st call route velocities.

He also has the best high 2nd call route velocity in the field. He also has the best high FR3 (2nd call to finish) route velocity in the field.

The problem is whether or not he will run well late. Who knows? But, I will be shocked if he doesn't get an easy early lead, unless he stumbles badly out of the gate.

With odds of less than 3/1, I won't be win betting him, or the race. If he's 3/1 or higher I'll bet him to win, and key him in the super. It's hard to beat the easy early speed at Santa Anita.

[Tee]

Let's see if he lasts a 1/2 mile. :)


If he can have any effect on Bayern early it is time for retirement for sure IMO.

[raybo]

Smooth Roller will go with Bayern.

Not likely. Bayern's worst FR1 route velocity is only fractionally lower than Smooth Roller's best FR1 route velocity. In his good races, Smooth Roller is an S3, while his most frequent is a P3. He'll have to change his running style and get some velocity from somewhere to stay with a horse as fast early as a Bayern.

[raybo]

If he can have any effect on Bayern early it is time for retirement for sure IMO.

I agree! If a horse like Smooth Roller can keep up with Bayern early, that will be his last race for sure. Bayern's worst Fr1 was 8 races back at Monmouth in which he wired the field. His last race was not far off his best FR1 (56.02).

[classhandicapper]

IMO Bayern wasn't as good as he looked on paper last year and he's not as bad as he looks on paper this year. Last year he caught some very biased tracks and favorable pace scenarios that helped him. This year he's been chasing some torrid paces and had a couple of rail trips on days it was not the best path.

He's not as good as last year, but it's not as dramatic as it appears.

[ebcorde]

will take it.. the hot horse

[Robert Fischer]

Word is out that Bayern is not able to handle pressure.

This race comes down to guessing jockey tactics.

Bayern will win easily if allowed to rate on the lead and have a breather.

Tyler Baze and :7:Smooth Roller could be the deciding factor.

I'm going to pass and hope that Bayern gets a good trip and wins by 5 lengths, so that he takes money in the Classic.

[Robert Fischer]

Smooth Roller will go with Bayern.

That's what it looks like should happen...

[NorCalGreg]

Bayern possesses both the best low velocity and the best high velocity to the 1st call (FR1) in routes, a low of 53.49 fps and a high of 56.67 fps. The next best FR1 velocity horse is Hoppertunity with a low of 52.68 fps and a high of 55.46, with Imperative having a low of 52.42 and a high of 55.71.

Horse _______Low_____High
Bayern -------- 53.49 --- 56.67
Hoppertunity - 52.68 --- 55.46
Imperative ---- 52.42 --- 55.71

In their "good" races the running styles and early speed points are:
Bayern ------- E6
Hoppertunity - P0
Imperative --- P0

Their most frequent running styles and early speed points are:
Bayern ------- E6
Hoppertunity - S0
Imperative --- S0

So, not only is Bayern the only "E" horse, and has the highest early speed points by far, he also possesses the best 1st call route velocities.

He also has the best high 2nd call route velocity in the field. He also has the best high FR3 (2nd call to finish) route velocity in the field.

The problem is whether or not he will run well late. Who knows? But, I will be shocked if he doesn't get an easy early lead, unless he stumbles badly out of the gate.

With odds of less than 3/1, I won't be win betting him, or the race. If he's 3/1 or higher I'll bet him to win, and key him in the super. It's hard to beat the easy early speed at Santa Anita.

Didn't Bayern have most of that going for him in the Pacific Classic? He made us look silly (well truth be told BEHOLDER made us look silly). I have flip-flop like 3 times, and now am completely on impartial-observer status, because quite frankly, I don't have a strong opinion on who is gonna even complete the Tri. I congratulate anyone that picks the winner with solid monetary backing.

[raybo]

Didn't Bayern have most of that going for him in the Pacific Classic? He made us look silly (well truth be told BEHOLDER made us look silly). I have flip-flop like 3 times, and now am completely on impartial-observer status, because quite frankly, I don't have a strong opinion on who is gonna even complete the Tri. I congratulate anyone that picks the winner with solid monetary backing.

In the Pacific Classic he didn't have the best low and high FR1, nor did he have the best high FR3. Also, the pace was extremely fast (22+, 45+, 109+), much faster than I predict today. I really don't see anybody forcing Bayern into fractions anywhere close to those in the Pacific. Bayern was toast at the 6f point.

As I stated earlier, for Smooth Roller (and who else in the field would go out with Bayern?) to force the pace to the extent that would compromise Bayern, he will have to change his running style and bring a lot more velocity than he has ever shown. If he does, and I assume his connections know this, he will doom himself completely.

I'm not saying that Bayern is a lock, because he isn't, but he should get the lead in slow to moderate fractions. This is Santa Anita, where he loves to run, and which favors early speed about as much as any track in the country. He's definitely the horse to beat here, and if he's in condition, and gets a good break, they'll all have to catch him in the final turn or stretch. I'm hoping he wins easily because I hate to see him stop racing.

[cj]

TimeformUS Pace Projector for the Awesome Again:

[cj]

That's what it looks like should happen...


Only if Smooth Roller is in the race not to win. How would dueling with Bayern help him?

[raybo]

Only if Smooth Roller is in the race not to win. How would dueling with Bayern help him?

That was my point. He can't help his own chances of winning or finishing in the money by getting into a duel with Bayern. I think it's possible that he goes out with Bayern only if Bayern gets a great break and settles slower early. I could see them close early if the pace is 23+, 46+, but that shouldn't compromise Bayern if he's ready to run, and even those slower fractions would doom Smooth Roller.

However, Bayern has to have his whole game today, not just his early one. That is the question. The faster surface may be the difference between what he does today and what he has been doing since the BCC. Del Mar's new surface was very tiring so the SA surface should be a welcome change for him.

[Robert Fischer]

Only if Smooth Roller is in the race not to win. How would dueling with Bayern help him?

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

I'm interested in a couple of exactas.

:6::7:over:2::6::7:
meaning my opinion here is that if SR presses = Smooth Roller lasts through the wire w/ Imperative right there and Bayern OUT w/ possibly Sammy Mandeville for a late 2nd...

and :8:over:6::7:
If Bayern isn't pressed it looks like a race between Smooth Roller and Imperative for 2nd money.

That's relative to my opinion. I could be way off.

[no breathalyzer]

i like the :4: win exacter key box :4: with :1: :5: :8:

[Tee]

Let's see what Mike Smith does with :5: Hoppertunity.

[Kash$]

Baffert pitches a shutout

[Stillriledup]

If I only knew what GARCIA was going to DO OUT OF THE GATE.. :lol:

He 'crashed' into the winner today LOL

[cj]

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

I'm interested in a couple of exactas.

:6::7:over:2::6::7:
meaning my opinion here is that if SR presses = Smooth Roller lasts through the wire w/ Imperative right there and Bayern OUT w/ possibly Sammy Mandeville for a late 2nd...

and :8:over:6::7:
If Bayern isn't pressed it looks like a race between Smooth Roller and Imperative for 2nd money.

That's relative to my opinion. I could be way off.

He was ridden perfectly. Bayern is out of form, just let him go and reel him in when he quits. Was a nice job by Tyler Baze.

[Robert Fischer]

Ended up being a lot more conventional than I had thought.
Bayern don't have it anymore. No duel needed. All that guessing over scenarios, and the best horse(7) simply tracked the leader and ran away late.

[raybo]

Such a shame to see a horse decline like that without a reason. I expected the pace to be at least a second faster throughout. When the 24 48 happened and he didn't try to put more ground between himself and the field, it was pretty much over for Bayern. That was ugly! Looked like a poor G2 race. He wouldn't even make a good miler now.

[iceknight]

The BC Classic winner* hasn't won a race since and barely managed a place position. Still doubt if he deserved to be on that podium last year or in the run for HOY. It is a shame to the sport but I feel sorry for the horse.

[raybo]

He was ridden perfectly. Bayern is out of form, just let him go and reel him in when he quits. Was a nice job by Tyler Baze.

I think it's more than just being out of form. Even out of form horses get back into form. He's had plenty of time to get his conditioning back, looks like he can't get it back anymore. Gotta think something else is wrong with him.

He appeared to have it all his way, but didn't take advantage of it. He got the lead but didn't do anything with it. You can't let slower horses stay with you or you give up your edge on them. Any decent graded stakes horse can run those fractions and still finish. At the pace he ran he should have exploded late, but nothing there. :ThmbDown:

[classhandicapper]

One thing about horse racing, you can't train a horse to bring along a biased track to help him carry his brilliant speed.

The winner is moving forward and looks like he'll be very good.

[raybo]

One thing about horse racing, you can't train a horse to bring along a biased track to help him carry his brilliant speed.

The winner is moving forward and looks like he'll be very good.

Are you saying that Santa Anita wasn't fast yesterday? Even on a very slow track Bayern would have run faster early than he did yesterday. He hasn't run fractions that slow in his whole racing life. I think the horse just has no interest in racing anymore. You don't go from a very fast horse to a very slow one unless you're not sound or you don't want to race.

[cbp]

Think what he'd have lost by if he went faster early. Then again, he probably wins if he herds the first two finishers to the outer rail in the stretch. Guess they only allow shit like that once in a career.

[no breathalyzer]

Think what he'd have lost by if he went faster early. Then again, he probably wins if he herds the first two finishers to the outer rail in the stretch. Guess they only allow shit like that once in a career.

:lol: :lol: :lol:

[raybo]

Think what he'd have lost by if he went faster early. Then again, he probably wins if he herds the first two finishers to the outer rail in the stretch. Guess they only allow shit like that once in a career.

Obviously you didn't watch the overhead view for the BCC. Get your facts straight before you post remarks like that.

And, yes, he might have lost even worse had he actually run 23 46+ 110+, but we will never know will we? At least he would have run HIS race. But, from the video it looked like he just didn't want to run at all, and not being choked back by the jock.

[letswastemoney]

Bayern was a worthy BC Classic champion.

Does Winning Colors lose points for turning into an allowance horse in 1989? She's still the 1988 SA Derby and Kentucky Derby winner.

[classhandicapper]

Are you saying that Santa Anita wasn't fast yesterday? Even on a very slow track Bayern would have run faster early than he did yesterday. He hasn't run fractions that slow in his whole racing life. I think the horse just has no interest in racing anymore. You don't go from a very fast horse to a very slow one unless you're not sound or you don't want to race.

I'm saying what I was saying before the race.

MTH on Haskell day and PARX on PENN Derby day last year were extremely biased. On Classic day last year SA was tilted more towards speed than the average race track. So IMO he was never as good last year as his reputation. Even last year when he got tested in the Travers he wilted badly.

This year he's had some very tough setups. So he wasn't as bad as he looked.

He may have lost a step, but not as much as people think.

Yesterday he got the lead in a soft pace and ran OK on an honest track. Maybe last year he would have held tougher, but without the combination of a biased surface and a soft pace he's never been that good going long.

[Robert Fischer]

We kinda know who Hoppertunity is by now.

Bayern got a good trip and couldn't finish ahead of Hoppertunity.
When he was Bayern, he would have dusted where Hoppertunity is now with a good trip, and finished far back with a hard duel.
He's clearly regressed.
His retirement is the right decision.

I'm saying what I was saying before the race.

MTH on Haskell day and PARX on PENN Derby day last year were extremely biased. On Classic day last year SA was tilted more towards speed than the average race track. So IMO he was never as good last year as his reputation. Even last year when he got tested in the Travers he wilted badly.

This year he's had some very tough setups. So he wasn't as bad as he looked.

He may have lost a step, but not as much as people think.

Yesterday he got the lead in a soft pace and ran OK on an honest track. Maybe last year he would have held tougher, but without the combination of a biased surface and a soft pace he's never been that good going long.
I do agree that he faced some harsh setups this year (2 impossible races vs Private Zone(one of them being the silly entry in the Met Mile, a duel in the SD(which the dueling horse almost won..), the jock switch+fast pace in the Pacific Classic).

Those races were adverse enough to believe that Bayern was very likely still good enough to run away if unchallenged. The only problem yesterday was that we weren't going to be getting good value for that guess.

Yesterday his race with a soft pace and honest track answered the question; His stamina has declined for whatever reason. Retirement was wise.

[Stillriledup]

Are you saying that Santa Anita wasn't fast yesterday? Even on a very slow track Bayern would have run faster early than he did yesterday. He hasn't run fractions that slow in his whole racing life. I think the horse just has no interest in racing anymore. You don't go from a very fast horse to a very slow one unless you're not sound or you don't want to race.

Yes, those are the only two reasons fast horses get slow. ;)