The right bet??

[Niko]

I've been going over this in my mind but I'd like to get the opinions of the other long term winners here. To me the Belmont was a good example of when to pass a race if you're interested in long-term profits even if another contender is at long odds because of a most logical favorite...or was it a bad bet because it's these longshots that put you ahead of the game.

Scenario.
Smarty, obvious contender, best horse in the race if he runs ONE of his better races. Odds very low but most logical. Figured the Preakness took something out of him but supposedly training as well as before the Derby and Preakness.

Didn't know who else could pop up but
Birdstone had my second highest pace rating from his 2 year old race, was coming off a short lay-off and had a few things going or him that I like in a horse. In a claiming race I would have bet him, especially at the odds.

So, did I make a good long-term decision or a bad one--if you didn't know the results beforehand (no pace duel and Smarty wins). Or did I succumb to the hype?

The best bet which I didn't think about because of the crowd, hype and hanging with friends was the place bet but that's another story.

[Buckeye]

that's interesting. Why didn't you? It's only money.
Why didn't you bet on the best horse in the race? Or, why didn't you just bet on Birdstone? His odds were pretty high.

[keilan]

2 cents

Question - did I make a good long-term decision or a bad one?

If your betting into this type of race on a daily bases, you will lose money over the long haul. Smarty Pants was a legitimate favourite and trying to beat that type of favourite is never a good proposal.

With that being said if one only considers this wager when the pools are very large as they were on Saturday then I see nothing wrong with taking a swing. Often the favourite doesn’t tower over the field like Smarty did.

Just a thought -- instead of trying to pick the winner, I like to use a price horse that I think has a good opportunity to finish 3rd or 4th and build tickets around that horse using a lot of horses in the other spots. In this way I can still hit the large ticket and if the fav does run 1st then I’ve bought insurance.

I almost never read any articles before any big race/day because the media somehow report on horses/trainers that skew my handicapping that almost never help.

FWIW I didn’t play the race. But I think I did key on Birdstone in one of his prep races. :) :)

[kenwoodallpromos]

The % bet is place; I do not bet stakes, too amny quality horses.

[JackS]

You might have looked at it a little different. A $2 win bet on Smarty would have returned your $2 and some pocket change. If you thought that the second favorite might win if Smarty loses, your return would have been $14. Big difference and you need not cash this ticket every time you bet in a simular situation. One hit in 7 tries breaks you even and two hits doubles your money.

[alysheba88]

Ken no offense but place was the absolute worst bet to make in this situation in my opinion

[maxwell]

I would never have considered Birdbrain off his whopping 85 Beyer but strange things happen in this game when horses do something new or a rider thinks 1 1/2 m. is the same thing as 1 3/16 m.

If your handicapping system ( factors ) pegs a horse as a contender, it makes no sense to pass the race - especially if you have a positive return on price plays over the long-run.

[alysheba88]

The value was in the exotics here. Betting against Eddington, Purge and RHT was the play (and thats not redboarding).

[Niko]

I didn't bet because Smarty was a legitimate favorite and as Keilan points out and I've experienced you'll lose in the long run betting against legitimate favorites on a regular basis, I read the articles which I should'nt have which lead me to believe Smarty would run another good race counter to my knowledge that the big Preakness probably knocked him out somewhat (which if he did still would have beat Birdstone), I got caught up in the hype and having watched the last 2 races by Birdstone didn't see the improvement coming.
The bet I was going to make which would've been smart was Birdstone to win and an exacta with Smarty on top. I'm glad I didn't bet the tri because I didn't have Royal Assault anywhere.
I bet two horses a lot but Smarty's odds were too low for me to consider(place almost covered that though)

Thanks for the input, If there's a next time we'll see what happens

[freeneasy]

stop thinking in terms of " if he (birdstone i think you were refering to) was in a claimer then i would have bet him at the low odds" cause your going to be waiting a loooong time for a bet like that to come along and then hes going to pay like 2 cents on the 100 dollar bill if he does go a claimer in his next out

[Niko]

I didn't mean it to come out that way,
I was saying if this was a claiming race full of claimers I would have bet it, but because it was a high profile grade I and I thought Smarty was legitimate I didn't, if Birdstone was in claiming race I'd walk away.

[JackS]

Niko- I think Smarty was a legitimate favorite but the question you have to answer for yourself is "at what odds"? The sorta standard for favorites is 30% or 2/1. SJ 's odds deserved something lower than this but certainly not 1/5. A bet against was correct even had Smarty won.