improving versus decliniing

[schacht]

what system can tell me a horses form cycle.for example if the horse has been 1 lenth from the winner the last 2 races will he suddenly be 15 lenths today,or vice-versa.given all other things are the same in the race class,surface,race distance,same track.i know no system is perfect the horse may just not want to run today,but can any system out there model a horse form and give some idea if it will bounce or improve.

[FortuneHunter]

It has been awhile since I looked at them, but I think Thoro-Graph is designed to leverage off form cycles. They chart the horses lifetime performances and the trained eye can see the form cycles, I guess. Maybe some users here can enlighten us.

Here is the link:

http://www.thorograph.com

[GR1@HTR]

http://www.thesheets.com/presskit.html

[andicap]

I'd buy the books "The Odds Must be Crazy" by Len Ragozin and "Thoroughbred Cycles" by Mark Cramer

[Tom]

Steve Davidowitz's book Betting Thoroughbreds has some good stuff about why is a horse in today's race and Dave Litfin's first book has an excellent chapter on speed figure patterns that I found to be very valuable, especially with 3yos.

Tom

[Show Me the Wire]

Schacht:

A system is purely mechanical sheet type speed figures are not mechanical. It is all based on interpretaion of lines (horses development from its first race up to his last race).

Try this mechinical method, all things being even and assuming the horse is not coming off a layoff or 2nd or 3rd race off the layoff.

If a horse dropped to a lower level its last race and shows improvement in lengths gained on the winner, and its speed figure, rating, etc. did not improve toss it from contention today.

Only use this method at tracks I don't play.

Best of Luck,
Show Me the Wire

[andicap]

Originally posted by Tom
Steve Davidowitz's book Betting Thoroughbreds has some good stuff about why is a horse in today's race and Dave Litfin's first book has an excellent chapter on speed figure patterns that I found to be very valuable, especially with 3yos.

Tom

Litfin lifted his stuff -- while giving credit -- right from the Ragozin sheet people, who then refuted the idea of using the Raggie form cycle theories with the Beyers.

[schacht]

thanks everyone for the answers

[Tom]

There is a new source for race figures,
www.equiform.com
The report is called xtras and it is similar in appearance to the sheets, but there is an emphasis on pace figures as well.
A day's reports comes in .pdf format and is about 50 pages. Cost is $28, which is more the than the real sheets, I believe.
I mention this because there is also a new book out by one the guys from this web page about form cycles using pace figures.
It probably is centered around the $28 reports, but if the concepts are legit, they could be interesting with other page figures, BRIS, etc, or even the ones coming from DRF (soon?)
Might be worth $30 or a good read at least. I am going to order it and will do a book report when I read it. There is an article about the book in the latest issue of Horse Player Magazine.
When you think about it, variations in pace may explain why some races look good or bad and I have always though pace figs might be a clue to improving form.

Tom

[schacht]

tom thanks for the information and your insight,ill be checking the links you gave me out. The help is always appreciated from the very intelligent people on this board. regards schacht:) :cool: ;)

[cj]

Steven Crist also has an interview in that same issue of HorsePlayer, and he doesn't once mention pace figures coming out in DRF. If they were coming, it would have been in there since the whole interview is about improvements to the DRF.

CJ

[Tom]

Marc fro DRF said they were coming out with pace figs but no in the form itself - some kind of stand alone meida.
Tom

[FortuneHunter]

Tom, I believe that pace figure are the key to improving form. I think a common training technique is to let the horse go from the gate, expend his energy, make his run to the 1/2, then the horse weakens. Trainer gets what he wants, the final speed fig is dull, but if your looking at the E2 (1/2 mile fig) you will see a good effort. Next race, the jock rates the horse and lets him make the run in the stretch and bingo.

Here is the problem: If this knowlege is about to become public knowlege then there will be no more value in pace.

We will have to find another angle.

[schacht]

the reason i first brought the topic of form up is because i hate betting a superfecta and the horse thats been 10-15 lenths behind the winner the last three races that i left out comes in.
if it hasnt dropped in class and had a recent workout how can you tell the animal is going to fire today.if you look at the pps
you always will see the horse will rise or decline in lenths behind the winner but for todays race its very unpredictable.i guess the trainer really only knows.