Top Horse Analytics: 09/23/2015 BEL Picks/Results

[Augenj]

Race picks will be posted here;
- in order by 1st race start time at each track
- after late changes have been posted at Equibase or track web sites
- usually one hour or more before 1st race start time

Race results will be posted here;
- after race charts have been posted at Equibase
- with THA payoffs (wins, verticals, horizontals) highlighted in red

THA Active Tracks: BEL, CD, GP
THA Suspended Tracks: DMR, KEE
THA Inactive Tracks: AQU-I, AQU-O, GPW, OP, SA, SAR, TAM

[Augenj]

TOP HORSE ANALYTICS (v4.15.09.12a)

Race Cancellations (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/cancellations.html?SAP=TN)
Today's Scratches And Changes (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/latechanges.html?SAP=TN)
Exotic Wager Cost Calculator (http://www.winningponies.com/help/exotic-wager-calculator.html?SAP=TN)

Race Results
Full Charts (http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/index.html?SAP=TN)
THA Race Results (http://www.vegassportscontrol.net/forum/40-race-results/)

Base Factor FLAGS
C Best Closer
E Best Earnings
F Best Finish
J Best Jockey
L Best Lead Pack
S Best Speed
T Best Trainer
W Best Workouts

09/23/15, BEL, Race 1, 12.55 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.07.03 CLAIMING. Purse $42,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (1-3) - Pick 5 (.50) Races (1-5), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :6: .Be a Hero [7/2] Ortiz. Jr. I / Rodriguez Rudy R. JSFE
098.8950 :1: Forest Boy [5/2] Velasquez C H / Jacobson David
098.7082 :7: Groupthink [6-1] Ortiz J L / Gargan Danny TWC
097.9171 :3: Regal Minister [5-1] Velazquez J R / Hennig Mark A. L
097.3935 5 Americas Guest [3-1] Cancel E / Terranova. II John P.
096.3079 4 Sol the Freud [12-1] Franco M / Cannizzo David A.
093.9164 2 Mr. Amos [20-1] Silvera R / Persaud Randi

09/23/15, BEL, Race 2, 1.28 ET
1 1/4M [Inner Turf] 1.57.04 ALLOWANCE. Purse $62,000.
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (2-4) - Pick 4 (.50) Races (2-5), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :5: .Memories of Peter [5/2] Velazquez J R / Ryerson James T. SFEWC
095.8749 :2: Ode to the Hunt [6-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Violette. Jr. Richard JL
095.1972 :1: Born in Brooklyn [3-1] Cancel E / Terranova. II John P. T
091.8105 :4: Harbor King [10-1] Davis D / Metivier Richard
090.6746 8 Tom's Vision [20-1] Franco M / Goodwin Gabriel
090.5949 3 Cody's Notes [30-1] Silvera R / Morrison John
089.2996 6 Snake Oil Charlie [20-1] Arroyo A S / Maroun George C.
*Scratch* 7 Barton Holt [2-1] Carmouche K / Sheppard Jonathan E.

09/23/15, BEL, Race 3, 2.01 ET
6 1/2F [Dirt] 1.14.02 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $75,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (3-5), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :1: .Ideal Quality [5/2] Velazquez J R / Pletcher Todd A. SC
098.6885 :7: Marking [4-1] Lezcano J / McLaughlin Kiaran P. TW
098.1280 :2: Domestic Warrior [6-1] Castellano J / Brown Bruce R. J
097.8725 :8: Imslopokerodriguez [3-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Rodriguez Rudy R. FEL
097.6855 3 Dannie's Deceiver [5-1] Rosario J / Cannizzo David A.
096.9576 5 Backsideofthemoon [12-1] Alvarado J / O'Brien Leo
096.3382 6 Evolution [15-1] Saez L / Mareina Michael
095.9610 4 Howlin Mad Smith [15-1] Cancel E / Zito Nicholas P.

09/23/15, BEL, Race 4, 2.34 ET
1M [Turf] 1.31.03 CLAIMING. Purse $48,000.
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (4-6) - Pick 6 Races (4-9), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :7: .Lawn Ranger [12-1] Velazquez J R / Jacobson David EL
097.6582 :1: Riviere Du Loup [3-1] Lezcano J / Servis Jason
095.4883 :2: Picozza [4-1] Castellano J / Pletcher Todd A. J
095.4446 :9: Wabbajack [5-1] Trujillo E / Toner James J.
094.8590 10 Skill Not Luck [12-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Brown Chad C. TC
094.5688 8 Moon Over Cuzco [10-1] Saez L / Calhoun W. Bret
094.5113 11 Schoolofhardrocks [6-1] Rosario J / Lynch Brian A.
093.8637 12 Cuppa Joe [10-1] Lopez P / Esler Nicholas SF
092.1514 5 Day Six [15-1] Carmouche K / Graham P. Dudley
087.8349 6 Giant Finish [20-1] Velasquez C H / D'Alessandro Ralph W
*Scratch* 4 Defining Product [15-1] Ortiz J L / Heffner William
*Scratch* 3 Battle Call [50-1] Jimenez S / Black Mary C.
*Scratch* 14 Againsome [6-1] Ortiz J L / Rice Linda
*Scratch* 13 Life in Shambles [5-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Clement Christophe

09/23/15, BEL, Race 5, 3.07 ET
6 1/2F [Dirt] 1.14.02 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $60,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (5-7) - Grand Slam Races (5-8), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :3: .Here Comes Rosie [4-1] Castellano J / Englehart Jeremiah C. JTWL
098.6870 :5: Frostie Anne [6-1] Alvarado J / Kenneally Eddie S
098.3856 :10: Trappe Play [12-1] Lezcano J / McLaughlin Kiaran P.
098.3226 :6: Barbie Stones [12-1] Velazquez J R / Levine Bruce N.
097.9634 12 Preying Mantis [6-1] Cancel E / Jerkens James A.
097.8970 2 All Day Lawn [12-1] Saez L / Gullo Gary P.
097.3103 8 Rock Garden [5-1] Rosario J / Contessa Gary C. FEC
097.1861 11 Sabrina Ballerina [20-1] Carmouche K / Levine Bruce N.
097.0461 9 Legend of Lorelei [8-1] Ortiz J L / Contessa Gary C.
096.7761 7 Askfor Forgiveness [6-1] Franco M / Wilkes Ian R.
096.5941 4 Firestar [12-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Morley Thomas
096.0216 1 Tiffanys Freud [20-1] Davis D / O'Brien Leo
*Scratch* 15 Reyana Dream [30-1] DeCarlo C P / Persaud Randi
*Scratch* 14 Ask the Lonely [12-1] Franco M / Nevin Michelle
*Scratch* 13 Persky's Spirit [30-1] Arroyo A S / Ortiz Juan

09/23/15, BEL, Race 6, 3.40 ET
7F [Turf] 1.19.04 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $85,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (6-8) - Pick 4 (.50) Races (6-9), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :6: .Dowse's Beach [7/2] Ortiz. Jr. I / Clement Christophe SFEC
098.7989 :2: Mr. Online [2-1] Carmouche K / Mott William I.
098.4101 :3: Plainview [5/2] Castellano J / DiPrima Gregory JWL
094.7586 :5: Mutin (FR) [6-1] Saez L / McLaughlin Kiaran P. T
093.3946 9 Bombaguia [10-1] Rosario J / Kimmel John C.
092.7333 8 Tetradrachm [10-1] Ortiz J L / Jacobson David
*Scratch* 7 Doubledown Again [2/5] Castellano J / Serpe Philip M.
*Scratch* 4 Banzai Charge [30-1] Alvarado J / Pascucci Ambrose
*Scratch* 1 Heuston (IRE) [20-1] Davis D / Murphy Conor

09/23/15, BEL, Race 7, 4.13 ET
6 1/2F [Dirt] 1.14.02 ALLOWANCE. Purse $62,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (7-9), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :7: .Even Bette [6-1] Castellano J / Levine Bruce N. JFEC
099.3059 :5: Myfourchix [9/5] Alvarado J / Schosberg Richard E. W
098.7986 :3: My Super Nova [3-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Weaver George L
097.8940 :4: Golden Gem [5-1] Trujillo E / Violette. Jr. Richard S
097.4952 2 Lady Daphne [6-1] Rosario J / Adsit Abigail C.
096.3398 1 Winter Wish [12-1] Cancel E / Parisella John T
094.4559 6 Silver Silence [15-1] Velasquez C H / D'Alessandro Ralph

09/23/15, BEL, Race 8, 4.46 ET
1 1/8M [Inner Turf] 1.45.00 ALLOWANCE. Purse $62,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :5: .Jc's Shooting Star [5/2] Franco M / Donk David G. SEW
098.3678 :4: Smilingsundae [2-1] Castellano J / Maker Michael J. JT
090.8108 :10: Upstate Bird [8-1] Lezcano J / Ice Tim A. FC
090.6508 :3: Resolutely [15-1] Garcia W A / Milne Joan L
090.3341 2 Swift Taylor [10-1] Carmouche K / Bond H. James
090.1609 6 Forever for Always [5-1] Saez L / Antonucci Jena M.
089.0894 8 Confessa [15-1] Cancel E / Toscano. Jr. John T.
088.9651 7 Serious Happiness [20-1] Sanchez M J / St. Lewis Uriah
088.2144 1 Light Years Away [15-1] DeCarlo C P / Kelly Patrick J.
086.7243 9 Over My Head [30-1] Davis D / Morrison John
*Scratch* 1a Saratiago [15-1] Jara F / Kelly Patrick J.

09/23/15, BEL, Race 9, 5.19 ET
7F [Turf] 1.19.04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $41,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10)
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :12: .My Tommy Boy [3-1] Velasquez C H / Klesaris Steve TSFEC
096.7820 :7: Vischer Ferry [7/2] Carmouche K / Lawrence. II James L. L
096.5192 :6: Tino [4-1] Alvarado J / Morley Thomas
094.7815 :13: Adirondack Posse [8-1] Rosario J / Contessa Gary C. J
094.6273 9 Lotza Heat [8-1] Arroyo A S / DiSanto Glenn B.
093.1767 5 Loose Money [12-1] Cancel E / Delgado Gustavo
089.2655 3 Secret Scholar [10-1] Trujillo E / Ubillo Rodrigo A. W
087.6701 2 Who Is the Giant [20-1] Arrieta F / Scott Phillip
085.9580 10 Risky Sour [30-1] Jimenez S / Kelly Patrick J.
085.6782 1 O'Bear [30-1] Lopez C C / Hertler John O.
083.0808 11 The Harley Kid [30-1] Davis D / Bizelia Anthony J.
079.7074 8 Chosen One Elijah [30-1] Rodriguez I O / Lalman Dennis S.
*Scratch* 4 Said No One Ever [6-1] Saez L / Antonucci Jena M.
*Scratch* 16 Elusive New Yorker [10-1] Cancel E / Cannizzo David A.
*Scratch* 15 Leatherhead Lurie [12-1] Jara F / DiPrima Gregory
*Scratch* 14 Colonel Jessup [50-1] Feurtado E / Shevy Michael J.

[Augenj]

TOP HORSE ANALYTICS (v4.15.09.12a)

Race Results
WPS Takeout at BEL is 16%, Breakage is $0.10

Base Factor FLAGS
C Best Closer
E Best Earnings
F Best Finish
J Best Jockey
L Best Lead Pack
S Best Speed
T Best Trainer
W Best Workouts

09/23/15, BEL, Race 1, 12:55 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.07.03 CLAIMING. Purse $42,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :6: .Be a Hero [7/2 * ] JSFE 2nd - 3.30 2.20
098.8950 :1: Forest Boy [5/2] leapt up, hit gate, eased
098.7082 :7: Groupthink [6-1] TWC
097.9171 :3: Regal Minister [5-1] L 4th
097.3935 5 Americas Guest [3-1] 3rd - 2.70
096.3079 4 Sol the Freud [12-1] 1st - 21.60 8.40 3.80
093.9164 2 Mr. Amos [20-1]

09/23/15, BEL, Race 2, 1:28 ET
1 1/4M [Inner Turf] 1.57.04 ALLOWANCE. Purse $62,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :5: .Memories of Peter [5/2 * ] SFEWC 1st - 3.50 2.90 2.20
095.8749 :2: Ode to the Hunt [6-1] JL 3rd - 2.70
095.1972 :1: Born in Brooklyn [3-1] T
091.8105 :4: Harbor King [10-1] 2nd - 8.40 3.80
090.6746 8 Tom's Vision [20-1]
090.5949 3 Cody's Notes [30-1]
089.2996 6 Snake Oil Charlie [20-1] 4th
*Scratch* 7 Barton Holt [2-1]

09/23/15, BEL, Race 3, 2:01 ET
6 1/2F [Dirt] 1.14.02 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $75,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :1: .Ideal Quality [5/2] SC 3rd - 2.40 blocked in stretch JV? at Bel?
098.6885 :7: Marking [4-1 * ] TW 1st - 3.60 2.80 2.20
098.1280 :2: Domestic Warrior [6-1] J
097.8725 :8: Imslopokerodriguez [3-1] FEL
097.6855 3 Dannie's Deceiver [5-1] 2nd - 5.10 2.80
096.9576 5 Backsideofthemoon [12-1] 4th
096.3382 6 Evolution [15-1]
095.9610 4 Howlin Mad Smith [15-1]

09/23/15, BEL, Race 4, 2:34 ET
1M [Turf] 1.31.03 CLAIMING. Purse $48,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :7: .Lawn Ranger [12-1] EL JV, dueled 2nd to 10th, last
097.6582 :1: Riviere Du Loup [3-1] 3rd - 4.50
095.4883 :2: Picozza [4-1] J 1st - 8.50 4.50 3.30
095.4446 :9: Wabbajack [5-1]
094.8590 10 Skill Not Luck [12-1] TC 2nd - 9.30 6.60
094.5688 8 Moon Over Cuzco [10-1] 4th
094.5113 11 Schoolofhardrocks [6-1 * ]
093.8637 12 Cuppa Joe [10-1] SF
092.1514 5 Day Six [15-1]
087.8349 6 Giant Finish [20-1] W
*Scratch* 4 Defining Product [15-1]
*Scratch* 3 Battle Call [50-1]
*Scratch* 14 Againsome [6-1]
*Scratch* 13 Life in Shambles [5-1]

09/23/15, BEL, Race 5, 3:07 ET
6 1/2F [Dirt] 1.14.02 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $60,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :3: .Here Comes Rosie [4-1 * ] JTWL 3rd - 3.80
098.6870 :5: Frostie Anne [6-1] S
098.3856 :10: Trappe Play [12-1] 1st - 29.80 12.40 10.20
098.3226 :6: Barbie Stones [12-1]
097.9634 12 Preying Mantis [6-1]
097.8970 2 All Day Lawn [12-1]
097.3103 8 Rock Garden [5-1] FEC
097.1861 11 Sabrina Ballerina [20-1] 4th
097.0461 9 Legend of Lorelei [8-1]
096.7761 7 Askfor Forgiveness [6-1]
096.5941 4 Firestar [12-1] 2nd - 17.20 9.60
096.0216 1 Tiffanys Freud [20-1]
*Scratch* 15 Reyana Dream [30-1]
*Scratch* 14 Ask the Lonely [12-1]
*Scratch* 13 Persky's Spirit [30-1]

09/23/15, BEL, Race 6, 3:40 ET
7F [Turf] 1.19.04 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $85,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :6: .Dowse's Beach [7/2 * ] SFEC 2nd - 3.20 2.40
098.7989 :2: Mr. Online [2-1] 3rd - 2.40
098.4101 :3: Plainview [5/2] JWL 1st - 6.00 3.40 2.50
094.7586 :5: Mutin (FR) [6-1] T
093.3946 9 Bombaguia [10-1]
092.7333 8 Tetradrachm [10-1] 4th
*Scratch* 7 Doubledown Again [2/5]
*Scratch* 4 Banzai Charge [30-1]
*Scratch* 1 Heuston (IRE) [20-1]

09/23/15, BEL, Race 7, 4:13 ET
6 1/2F [Dirt] 1.14.02 ALLOWANCE. Purse $62,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :7: .Even Bette [6-1] JFEC 4th
099.3059 :5: Myfourchix [9/5 * ] W 1st - 5.70 2.80 2.60
098.7986 :3: My Super Nova [3-1] L 2nd - 3.30 2.80
097.8940 :4: Golden Gem [5-1] S
097.4952 2 Lady Daphne [6-1]
096.3398 1 Winter Wish [12-1] T
094.4559 6 Silver Silence [15-1] 3rd - 5.00

09/23/15, BEL, Race 8, 4:46 ET
1 1/8M [Inner Turf] 1.45.00 ALLOWANCE. Purse $62,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :5: .Jc's Shooting Star [5/2 * ] SEW 1st - 5.10 2.70 2.50
098.3678 :4: Smilingsundae [2-1] JT 2nd - 3.30 2.70 $2 Ex 14.40
090.8108 :10: Upstate Bird [8-1] FC
090.6508 :3: Resolutely [15-1] L
090.3341 2 Swift Taylor [10-1]
090.1609 6 Forever for Always [5-1] 4th
089.0894 8 Confessa [15-1]
088.9651 7 Serious Happiness [20-1] 3rd - 6.10
088.2144 1 Light Years Away [15-1]
086.7243 9 Over My Head [30-1]
*Scratch* 1a Saratiago [15-1]

09/23/15, BEL, Race 9, 5:19 ET
7F [Turf] 1.19.04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $41,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :12: .My Tommy Boy [3-1] TSFEC 4th to 7th
096.7820 :7: Vischer Ferry [7/2] L led to stretch
096.5192 :6: Tino [4-1 * ] 3rd - 3.30
094.7815 :13: Adirondack Posse [8-1] J 4th
094.6273 9 Lotza Heat [8-1] 1st - 19.00 9.20 4.60
093.1767 5 Loose Money [12-1] 2nd - 17.20 9.00
089.2655 3 Secret Scholar [10-1] W
087.6701 2 Who Is the Giant [20-1]
085.9580 10 Risky Sour [30-1]
085.6782 1 O'Bear [30-1]
083.0808 11 The Harley Kid [30-1] eased
079.7074 8 Chosen One Elijah [30-1]
*Scratch* 4 Said No One Ever [6-1]
*Scratch* 16 Elusive New Yorker [10-1]
*Scratch* 15 Leatherhead Lurie [12-1]
*Scratch* 14 Colonel Jessup [50-1]