Conditional Wager System

[Ray2000]

Trying something new, again :)

These picks will be Win/Place for a base stake of $5/5
The "new" part is each pick will have a series of 4 "Graduated Conditional Wagers"
using these criteria.

Odds conditions:
Bet #1 if > Even money
Bet #2 if > 8/5
Bet #3 if > 5/2
Bet #4 if > 4/1
Minutes to post all 4 at -1 mtp

This would be a maximum 40$ on each pick but most will fail to go thru.

Saturday Sep 19th picks
Balmoral R5......# 10 Bulldog Benji-9/2.............Brink, Mike
Freehold R4......# 1 Western Dakota-4/1...........Lachance, Pat
Pocono R7........# 6 Rockin Rambaran-4/1.........Napolitano, Geo
Saratoga R8......# 4 Mckinney-4/1....................Beckwith, Mark
Vernon R6........# 4 Hollywoods Thatway-9/2.....Callahan, Corey



Has anyone else tried this approach? :confused:

[mrroyboy]

Good luck Ray. This will be more tricky than the previous one.

[Ray2000]

That's for sure, I'm guessing at the Odds limits, may need to adjust.
Freehold Race 4 is about to go off...2 bets #1&2 got placed the other 2 failed..

[Ray2000]

Bad start, no winners ....bet 100 return 30

Balmoral R5......# 10..off at 8/1...showed...no levels failed ...bet 40
Freehold R4......# 1 ..off at Even..placed.....2 levels failed ...bet 20..ret 13
Pocono R7........# 6 ..off at 9/5....placed.....2 levels failed ...bet 20..ret 17
Saratoga R8......# 4...scratched
Vernon R6........# 4...off at 5/1....showed...2 levels failed*....bet 20

*2 levels Not met, odds 2.30 at -1 mtp but Final odds jumped to 5.10 ???

Try again Sunday
Flamboro R7......# 4 Perfect Vista-7/2........Hudon, Phillip
Chester R9........# 4 Alexis Style-8/1..........Miller, Andy
Saratoga R12.....# 4 Choke Hold-6/1...........Devaux, Jim

[Ray2000]

Flamboro R7......Winner $5.50 $3.90 ....1 of 4 went thru
Chester R9........otb...........................3 of 4 went thru
Saratoga R12.....Placed $5.80..............4 of 4 went thru

Bets (conditions met) $80
Back $58.50


One more try.... :sleeping:
Monday, Funday Picks
Grand River R5...# 1 Hidden Potential-6/1........Coulter, Scott
Grand River R6...# 2 Adventure Luck-7/2.........Jamieson, Jody C
Harrington R1.....# 2 Provenance-3/1...............Davis, Allan
Harrington R3.....# 4 Shellysblockbuster-3/1.....Miller, Brett
Northfield R4......# 9 Ivan Bob-5/2..................Wengerd, J D
Yonkers R2........# 3 Here Comes Harlee-4/1....Carlson, Eric
Yonkers R8........# 1 Repeat Please-5/2............Stratton, Jordan

[Ray2000]

Results 28 bets sent in ...8 failed
$200 bet $145.50 back.

Grand River R5....# 1 Placed $4.80
Grand River R6....# 2 Showed
Harrington R1.....# 2 OTB
Harrington R3.....# 4 Winner $3.60 $2.60
Northfield R4......# 9 Placed $3.20
Yonkers R2.........# 3 Placed $4.60..............(Winner#7 paid 125$!!)
*Yonkers R8.......# 1 Showed

*This last one hurt, all 4 levels accepted
Timestamp:.....09/21/2015 09:31 PM
Cost:....................$10.00
Win amount:...........$0.00
Refund amount:.......$0.00
Cancel amount:.......$0.00
Total payout:..........$0.00
Condition:...............MTP|WIN|ODDS -1|1|>4
Conditional Audit:... Met, odds 5.35 at -1 MTP
Final Odds #1 ....... 2.20

System needs some work,
Need to collect more data on best MTP to use and odds levels, each track differs.

[lamboguy]

the best time to make your harness bets is as early as possible. many times you will get even more that you wanted because the computers that analyze pools kick in with no time on the clock and may bet against your money. these guys with the computers will come in for $50-$100 bets in low handle tracks. if more than one of them kick in you now score.

the conditional wagering don't mean a thing these days.

[Ray2000]

...
conditional wagering don't mean a thing these days.
Generally I agree with that, I was just trying out some -1 mtp odds versus final toteboard odds and there's a lot of big moves in the final flick.

Interesting with these 14 races, Place betting showed a profit 1.05 roi versus Win bets 0.33 roi. But that was due to lack of Win hits, not last minute odds changes.