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kingfin66
06-08-2004, 02:06 AM
Track: Calder Date: 06-08-2004

Race: 1 Selection: 7 ML: 5/2

Analysis: No fulcrum. Tied for high PBS (5 gap) with a horse that fails PNP (pig, not a pig, test). Maiden race - fundamentals only. Neutral pace scenario. Will likely be bet way down.

Race: 4 Selection: 6 ML: 9/5

Analysis: 8F, highest PPF (7 gap), lone VTR. Neutral pace scenario. Selection is also the fulcrum horse. May end up odds on.

Race: 9 Selection: 6 ML: 5/2

Analysis: Maiden race, 3 FTS. 9 gap on the PBS…likely to be bet way, way down. Unfortunately, there isn’t much value at all on this Crc card unless you choose to play the n2l races (2, 5, and 7).


Track: River Downs Date: 06-08-2004

Race: 1 Selection: 6 ML: 7/2

Analysis: MSW race with 4 FTS. Strong horse (7 gap PBS/single VTR). Need a good price to play with 4 out of 8 FTS.

Race: 2 Selection: 2 ML: 7/2

Analysis: 5.5F cheap claimer. Neutral pace scenario. Using PPF (4 gap) because of adjustment issues. Top PBS and PPF. Running style fits race. Single VTR. This one will be tough to beat.

Race: 6 Selection: 3 ML: 6/1

Analysis: Turf route with a Lone Early pace scenario. Will try to beat with an S horse (turf route!) that has an 8 gap PPF.

Race: 9 Selection: 9 ML: 6/1

Analysis: A rock-bottom maiden claimer with a full field. Using PBS because of adjustment issues. Using a 7 gap PPF. The PPF rating is from a route, but is backed up by multi good PPF ratings. It’s now or never for the 9. The most likely horse to beat him is the probably favorite, #11, with the highest PBS.

zieglerjw
06-08-2004, 03:50 AM
kingfin: THANK YOU VERY,VERY, MUCH for your input !!! It is very rare on this board !!

kingfin66
06-08-2004, 09:13 PM
You're welcome! It was a pretty thin day all in all. Only one small winner out of the 7 listed. But, like I said, there wasn't much value at Calder. There were really only two races where value met price (RD races 6 and 9), but those didn't run for me. I am going to try to post 1 track a day in this manner to practice my HM skills. Keep in mind, most of the races today, weren't good value races.