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View Full Version : A Complete Novice to Brohamer Tries MPH PRO


NorCalGreg
09-18-2015, 02:14 AM
Let me start this quick review by saying I've never read any Brohamer books, Sartin stuff, etc. I just noticed a few guys on the forum who mentioned Trackmaster MPH, so decided to give it a try. I like some of the programs there, such as WAGERMATE, because they don't require me to buy anything, I don't have to pay for software...just data files I use. They're $2 a day, pay as you go--or I can sign up monthly for like $30 a month.

Nothing is on my computer, it's all web-based. So when I close out, it's gone. I had a few days of Los Al, closed it out last night, was gone this AM. The thing is, I can re-aquire ....but only what's still available. Yesterday is gone.

So not knowing the MPH Brohamer methodology, I just accepted the top rated horse was THE TOP HORSE. There are ratings and tabs for Total Speed, Avg Pace, Early Pace, Sustained Pace, Fraction 1,2,3, Run Style, and something mysteriously called FACTOR X, among others

I was pretty interested Wed 16th, just clicking buttons and getting familiar, today Thurs, I went "live" @ Los Al. I already had a CFN horse I was betting in the 3rd but missed that...4th race ---odds were too low, race obvious to every blue haired senior out there (MPH horse ran 2nd)

By now I'm getting bored--I go ahead & play a MPH pic-3 starting with the 5th race- 1/1/5 -for $2 and put $5 Win on those same MPH picks. I go ahead and take off, get back a little later on...and admit it guys--you all do this too---check your ADW balance... I had hit the pic-3...so naturally I hit all 3 win bets. You don't win a lot when you don't wager a lot, but I was happy.
I ended up +$72. I still don't really wanna get into the whole MPH method right now...maybe I can find something online. I really need to know what all the columns are.

Oh, one other thing---with your $2 data file comes free PDF Tackmaster PP's. Just click a button. Hope this helped someone--PM if you want
-NCG

NorCalGreg
09-18-2015, 04:57 AM
Okay, so I did some research on Brohamer's Pace work, these guys were doing this in the 80's? This is actually from Bris, but they sell All-Ways files--which are based on Brohamer/Sartin. If anyone is interested I'll update my results--if not, Good Luck. From an All-ways newsletter:
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*Now, here is a very important thought: The actual distance of the race also has a bearing on how much weight you should give to the top Early Pace horses. Look at the chart below.

6 furlongs 3,960 2,640 66.6%
6 1/2 furs 4,290 2,640 62.0%
7 furlongs 4,620 2,640 57.0%
one mile 5,280 3,960 75.0%
1 1/16 mile 5,610 3,960 71.0%
1 1/8 mile 5,940 3,960 66.0%
First, this chart shows you one very good reason why the Early Pace figures are so important. Well more than half of the total distance of the race has been run by the Second Call. This may look obvious now, but few handicappers alter their judgement based on the specific length of a race. They tend to generalize their thinking into the two broad categories of sprints and routes.

SP (Sustained Pace)

The Sustained Pace Rating is the average of a horse’s Early Pace velocity and Final Fraction velocity. It relates the horse’s potential Second Call performance with the horses finishing ability. You should favor this rating if there is a prevailing late bias at the track.

You should also favor the top SP Rating horses if there is a lot of front end speed in the race that may set the race up for a solid closer. Remember, and this is very important, because of the strong influence of Early Pace in the SP rating, the top SP horse will most likely be in touch with the field at the Second Call, within striking distance to pass front running horses that are tiring in the stretch run.

The longer the sprint or the longer the route the more weight you should give the top SP Rating horses. As the races get longer within the sprint and within the route categories, your weighting should gradually move from the top EP Rating horses to the top SP Rating horses.

One last point is that top SP Rating horses tend to have higher payoffs than top EP Rating horses.

AP (Average Pace)

In sprints, the AP Rating is the average of all three race fractions. In routes, it is the average of a horse’s Early Pace and Sustained Pace figures. According to Tom Brohamer, Average Pace is perhaps the best standalone factor identified by the Sartin group in terms of selecting winners. The most powerful use we have discovered for this factor is to use it in combination with either the Early Pace or the Sustained Pace rating, whichever you are giving the most weight to as described above. If you are favoring the Early Pace rating and the top horse is also in the top 2 or 3 of Average Pace ratings, that is a powerful combination. Likewise, if the top Sustained Pace horse is also in the top 2 or 3 of Average Pace ratings and you are favoring Sustained Pace, you have a powerful combination.

FX (Factor X)

The Factor X rating is the average of a horse’s first fraction velocity and third fraction (the Final Fraction) velocity. So, Factor X relates a horse’s probable First Call performance with its finishing ability. The FX pace rating is appreciated by handicappers who place emphasis on how well horses do running to the First Call. Factor X is only used in sprints

Ted Craven
09-18-2015, 02:05 PM
Just FWIW, there is an entire website, an entire Windows based software program which implements the Sartin Methodology, and everything and more which Sartin devised and which Brohamer wrote about in the early days:

RDSS - Racing Decision Support System
www.SartinMethodology.com (http://www.SartinMethodology.com) / (www.PaceandCap.com (http://www.PaceandCap.com))

Sartin moved on in the mid- 90s from the type of factors Brohamer described, to include ratings based on incremental energy expenditure and deceleration, though the original stuff is in there somewhere.

Also much of what Jim 'The Hat' Bradshaw taught about The Matchup.

Apparently, RDSS is pretty popular, according the to recent poll here at PA of commercial software programs being used. It also uses TrackMaster data, and Daily and Inter Track variants provided by them.

(Just in case people thought Sartin disappeared sometime in the 1990's ... ;) )

Ted

NorCalGreg
09-18-2015, 02:35 PM
Thanks, Ted......the more I read, the more interested I am. These guys were so far ahead of their time it's sick. I found an old forum, it was formatted like this one...(I know there were several SIMILAR at the time) was even wondering if Brohamer was ever a posting member of this very board?
Anyway....it's good stuff :)

Pensacola Pete
09-19-2015, 01:23 PM
HTR includes the MPH factors. As I remember, HTR's creator, Ken Massa, collaborated with Tom Brohamer on MPH. You can find a glossary of HTR terms here, which include HTR's version of the MPH factors.

http://htr2.com/km/pdf/HTR%20Glossary%20of%20Terms%20and%20Symbols.pdf

RDSS (Ted Craven's post) is more dedicated to the Sartin way of handicapping and has all of the MPH factors and other Sartin things. They also have a large support group.

You might also compare the significance of early pace in one-turn routes vs two-turn routes.

Factor X (FX, F/X) is, put simply, an average of the first and third fractions. It's useful at some tracks and distances, notably Belmont dirt.

Tom
09-20-2015, 01:55 PM
Ken wrote the original MPS program.
HTR grew out of the project. So much more involved nowadays.

highnote
09-21-2015, 12:37 PM
Ken wrote the original MPS program.
HTR grew out of the project. So much more involved nowadays.

One of the challenges for me with the software becoming more involved is that it gets confusing.

I like Brohammer's old MPH program because of its simplicity. Synergism is about as complex as I can handle.

I used to use EX/DC but there were too many readouts and a lot of conflicts. I never did figure out KGEN.

Actually, the first method I ever won with was the simple system described in the Sartin group's book "Pace Makes the Race".

Secondbest
09-21-2015, 01:52 PM
Do you have to do any typing with these programs or do they do it for you?
At my age I have trouble keeping my concentration so the less I have to do the better

NorCalGreg
09-21-2015, 02:39 PM
Do you have to do any typing with these programs or do they do it for you?
At my age I have trouble keeping my concentration so the less I have to do the better

Most of these programs require a great deal of commitment, learning the concept can take time, but all in all is fascinating. I wrote the review of MPH PRO for the "Weekend Warrior" type player, maybe such as yourself, Secondbest. It's not a Professional-Style program....but there is nothing to type at all. One tip---find the #1 early speed horse--use it at high-speed-favoring tracks-- Bris 80% or above in the Race summary -- in sprints. Good luck
-NCG

Secondbest
09-21-2015, 05:41 PM
Thanks. You pegged me right mostly weekends.I'll give it a shot.

357VEGAS
09-22-2015, 12:00 AM
Tom Brohamer offers speed figures each week. They are the best figures around. If you are interested email him at tbrohamer@dc.rr.com

good luck