What can we do??? To promote our dying game?

[EMD4ME]

http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/story/_/page/Belmontracingfading/2015-belmont-stakes-why-horse-racing-continues-fade

Yes, the game is prospering at the SPA and AP's TC victory has helped but what can we, the diehards of horseracing DO to promote this game? To help the industry?

Any ideas?

I'm sure this has been discussed at nauseum but it bothers me everyday :mad:

[castaway01]

You should definitely make more drunken posts where you past post about your rare wins, or talk about how whatever jockey stiffed the horse and how they're all out to get you, the only person single-handedly supporting NY racing. Those posts are doing a great job promoting this dying game.

I have a feeling your betting career will die before this game does.

[Stillriledup]

Promote the game seems to suggest we keep things the same and just market it better. I think the problem is basically that the game is run by the horsemen who have their own best interests at heart, and the fans and customers know this.

If the customer doesn't come first, than you're not going to have as much success as you would otherwise.

[Stillriledup]

You should definitely make more drunken posts where you past post about your rare wins, or talk about how whatever jockey stiffed the horse and how they're all out to get you, the only person single-handedly supporting NY racing. Those posts are doing a great job promoting this dying game.

I have a feeling your betting career will die before this game does.

And you should hijack more threads and post some angry man stuff instead of posting about horse racing. If you have a beef with a poster, take it to PM, this is garbage, but I'm not surprised, it's all you ever seem to post.

Stay classy now.

[EMD4ME]

You should definitely make more drunken posts where you past post about your rare wins, or talk about how whatever jockey stiffed the horse and how they're all out to get you, the only person single-handedly supporting NY racing. Those posts are doing a great job promoting this dying game.

I have a feeling your betting career will die before this game does.


1) I see your negative nellie butt should be the first thing that is thrown out of any racing forum. racetrack, OTB and alike.

2) Jockeys do stiff horses left and right. If you're too stupid, too naive or too obtuse to see it, not my fault. Go ahead, hate me, FOR HATING the crooks of this game for ruining the sport that I love.

3) I only speak of my handle while I'm defending myself.

4) I don't redboard or whatever the phrase is. If I did, you'd hear a whole lot more from me as I'm over $300K in W-2 G's for the year.

Lastly, my betting career is only improving, doubt it.

If you have nothing positive to add, I ask politely that you leave this thread alone JACKie ASSmeyer.

[EMD4ME]

Promote the game seems to suggest we keep things the same and just market it better. I think the problem is basically that the game is run by the horsemen who have their own best interests at heart, and the fans and customers know this.

If the customer doesn't come first, than you're not going to have as much success as you would otherwise.

I agree, there are many negative aspects to the game which can be corrected.

But, the question remains, what can WE do to promote the game?

Should we select a date where we all bring somone new to the track?

Should WE all select a track management team to reach out to discuss marketing ideas with their marketing team?

Looking for positive tangible things that WE, the PA members can do to help.

[Stillriledup]

I agree, there are many negative aspects to the game which can be corrected.

But, the question remains, what can WE do to promote the game?

Should we select a date where we all bring somone new to the track?

Should WE all select a track management team to reach out to discuss marketing ideas with their marketing team?

Looking for positive tangible things that WE, the PA members can do to help.

I would never introduce someone I liked or cared about to this game as it stands. As long as the horsemen come before the customers, the game will remain the way it is and nothing will change I'm afraid.

[EMD4ME]

I would never introduce someone I liked or cared about to this game as it stands. As long as the horsemen come before the customers, the game will remain the way it is and nothing will change I'm afraid.

So can you introduce people you don't like , to the game ? :lol:

[cj]

http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/story/_/page/Belmontracingfading/2015-belmont-stakes-why-horse-racing-continues-fade

Yes, the game is prospering at the SPA and AP's TC victory has helped but what can we, the diehards of horseracing DO to promote this game? To help the industry?

Any ideas?

I'm sure this has been discussed at nauseum but it bothers me everyday :mad:

By promoting betting---and not just betting but also handicapping. That is what hooked most of us. But when you watch TV broadcasts you barely hear it mentioned. Until people are taught how the betting side of the sport works THEY AREN'T GOING TO BET.

[Stillriledup]

So can you introduce people you don't like , to the game ? :lol:

I could. Only problem is I like everyone, finding someone I disliked would be hard work. :D

[EMD4ME]

I could. Only problem is I like everyone, finding someone I disliked would be hard work. :D

:D :D :D We both know, if anyone has thick skin, it's you.

[EMD4ME]

By promoting betting---and not just betting but also handicapping. That is what hooked most of us. But when you watch TV broadcasts you barely hear it mentioned. Until people are taught how the betting side of the sport works THEY AREN'T GOING TO BET.

That's a great point CJ.

It's almost as if it's Taboo to discuss wagering on NBC broadcasts over the years. I'd love to see a documentary or a darn commercial showing Joe Shmo handicapping a card, playing a pick 6 and making $500,000 on a PICK 6.

Why has that been the case for years? (Not counting TVG and their "expert" pick 4 selections)

[EMD4ME]

Idea #1:

Every track utilizes social media or local radio stations to give out a $200 prize pack to winning contestants. Each contestant wins free admission for 4, reserved seats, programs, $25 betting vouchers for each guest AND A MENTOR to spend the day with.

Idea #2:

Each track should advertise a consolation lotto. Every losing ticket that is made on track, gets to be placed in a lottery bin. At the conclusion of the last race, all tickets are placed inside, a random member of the crowd is selected and they pull the winning ticket.

Consolation lotto winner gets $1 X live attendence. More in the crowd, more money paid out. More losing tickets, better chance of winning.

[burnsy]

By promoting betting---and not just betting but also handicapping. That is what hooked most of us. But when you watch TV broadcasts you barely hear it mentioned. Until people are taught how the betting side of the sport works THEY AREN'T GOING TO BET.

Right on. Hey, you can tune in and learn how figure skaters "accessorize" their evening gowns though. END4ME is right too. Every Draft Kings and Fan Duel commercial shows guys jumping up and down and getting a giant check. Horse racing and gambling, much less winning......never talked about. They give the announcers a 2 minute "who do you like deal".... Hey, but you can learn what's' in a mint julep 20 years in a row.

[MJC922]

Not enough people win long term for one thing. Not enough people walk out with what they came in with on the day. The game was in its heyday when there was WPS and maybe the DD. These days the best bet in the game from a takeout standpoint is the pick6 with a carryover. We've come a long way from Pittsburg Phil's day where you could make a million laying against horses. WPS has completely fallen out of favor, people can't lay against, they can't play horse against horse, very few high-percentage options where the odds are relatively stable. It's no wonder so many people go broke chasing gimmicks.

[whodoyoulike]

http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/story/_/page/Belmontracingfading/2015-belmont-stakes-why-horse-racing-continues-fade

Yes, the game is prospering at the SPA and AP's TC victory has helped but what can we, the diehards of horseracing DO to promote this game? To help the industry?

Any ideas?

I'm sure this has been discussed at nauseum but it bothers me everyday :mad:

Why did that Horseplayers show not get renewed (after only one season)?

Was there any reason provided ... was it just because of low ratings or something else?

It could have been improved but it was the first season. I really enjoyed it.

Should have shown Chantel modeling and riding that horse after all, it was cable.

And, one of the featured members did win a major tourney after the show's cancellation.

[whodoyoulike]

Not enough people win long term for one thing. Not enough people walk out with what they came in with on the day. ...

Same can be said about poker. The hook is that they've presented it that any one can do it.

[Stillriledup]

Not enough people win long term for one thing. Not enough people walk out with what they came in with on the day. The game was in its heyday when there was WPS and maybe the DD. These days the best bet in the game from a takeout standpoint is the pick6 with a carryover. We've come a long way from Pittsburg Phil's day where you could make a million laying against horses. WPS has completely fallen out of favor, people can't lay against, they can't play horse against horse, very few high-percentage options where the odds are relatively stable. It's no wonder so many people go broke chasing gimmicks.

This is right, the betting menu is 1960s, you gotta be able to lay against.

[Tom]

Why should WE do anything?

Let the idiots who run the game do it - they are the ones who will get the rewards.

You can't fix stupid.

[dilanesp]

Right on. Hey, you can tune in and learn how figure skaters "accessorize" their evening gowns though. END4ME is right too. Every Draft Kings and Fan Duel commercial shows guys jumping up and down and getting a giant check. Horse racing and gambling, much less winning......never talked about. They give the announcers a 2 minute "who do you like deal".... Hey, but you can learn what's' in a mint julep 20 years in a row.

When the pick 6 first hit, big winners were given plenty of publicity on local news here in Southern California.

But it's hard to compete with lottery jackpots. (One aspect of lottery competition is unfair, however. They should not be allowed to falsely advertise "jackpots" that are paid out over 25 years. They should only get to advertise the present value of any jackpot, just like horse racing or a slot machine, for that matter, has to do. But even if they did that, they'd still crush horse racing payouts.)

[Secondbest]

There is nothing you can do.Learning to handicap is too hard and time consuming in today's world.Racing can never compete with fantasy etc.

[chenoa]

http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/story/_/page/Belmontracingfading/2015-belmont-stakes-why-horse-racing-continues-fade

Yes, the game is prospering at the SPA and AP's TC victory has helped but what can we, the diehards of horseracing DO to promote this game? To help the industry?

Any ideas?

I'm sure this has been discussed at nauseum but it bothers me everyday :mad:

Nothing you can ever do to improve it in North America. Prefer to play UK or Hong Kong.

[MutuelClerk]

Make peace with PETA. When people ask me where I work and I tell them the horse racing industry. It seems the first question is always the safety of the horses. I'm not defending PETA at all. I do believe they have changed a lot of peoples perception of this industry. If you want the newcomer in the game this has to be done.

[lamboguy]

Why should WE do anything?

Let the idiots who run the game do it - they are the ones who will get the rewards.

You can't fix stupid.i agree 100%.....the game is the only fan participation sport around, that's why people always try to come up with suggestions.

unfortunately, as long as the people running the game these days collect their paychecks on friday's, nothing will will ever happen.

[EMD4ME]

Why did that Horseplayers show not get renewed (after only one season)?

Was there any reason provided ... was it just because of low ratings or something else?

It could have been improved but it was the first season. I really enjoyed it.

Should have shown Chantel modeling and riding that horse after all, it was cable.

And, one of the featured members did win a major tourney after the show's cancellation.

I am not sure why it was cancelled. You are correct and there was so much more that could have been done from a marketing perspective. Chantel modeling for one, utilizing the other jocks similarly, have jocks show up at WWE events (not kidding, huge although completely different fan base there) and other similar ideas promoting the people of the sport.

This world is about instant gratification. Granted, I'm not one of those people but you must market to them.

How about a simple, "instant horse racing" race after every live race. Every person with a losing ticket scans their losing ticket into their smartphone (on track only) within 5 minutes of the last live race becoming official. In return you receive a ticket for an upcoming "historic race". If you have the right combo in the historic race (shown 5 minutes after the prior live race), you win 2 free drinks, a $50 voucher and a day at the races prize pack (Free admission, program, parking, $20 voucher good on a selected future date only etc.)

Keep people's minds busy while at the track and have them come back.

I many times wish the marketing people at all tracks would ask all of the diehards for ideas and implement them.

Getting back to reality series, there are a lot of people with money in this game. I'm surprised one, like Repole, who loves this game, hasn't created a reality series and paid for it out of his own pocket to promote the game. There are so many variations can that can be applied to make it "WOW".

[Stillriledup]

i agree 100%.....the game is the only fan participation sport around, that's why people always try to come up with suggestions.

unfortunately, as long as the people running the game these days collect their paychecks on friday's, nothing will will ever happen.

Exactly, there are no visionaries running this game, just people looking to cash a check and not Rock the boat.

Any 'ideas' that the leaders of this game make is just fake progress, until there's a complete overhaul of American racing to mimic what HK is doing, anything that anyone comes up with is a waste of time.

[EMD4ME]

Why should WE do anything?

Let the idiots who run the game do it - they are the ones who will get the rewards.

You can't fix stupid.

After years and years of watching the game die out, it bothers me that "those" in charge don't do something tangible about it.

You are 100% correct, you can't fix stupid but if everyone just throws their hands up in the air and gives up, we will all be playing in small pools against eachother till we die out and there is $100 in a pool.

[EMD4ME]

Exactly, there are no visionaries running this game, just people looking to cash a check and not Rock the boat.

Any 'ideas' that the leaders of this game make is just fake progress, until there's a complete overhaul of American racing to mimic what HK is doing, anything that anyone comes up with is a waste of time.

You're motivating me to switch careers and get into racetrack management.

[Stillriledup]

I am not sure why it was cancelled. You are correct and there was so much more that could have been done from a marketing perspective. Chantel modeling for one, utilizing the other jocks similarly, have jocks show up at WWE events (not kidding, huge although completely different fan base there) and other similar ideas promoting the people of the sport.

This world is about instant gratification. Granted, I'm not one of those people but you must market to them.

How about a simple, "instant horse racing" race after every live race. Every person with a losing ticket scans their losing ticket into their smartphone (on track only) within 5 minutes of the last live race becoming official. In return you receive a ticket for an upcoming "historic race". If you have the right combo in the historic race (shown 5 minutes after the prior live race), you win 2 free drinks, a $50 voucher and a day at the races prize pack (Free admission, program, parking, $20 voucher good on a selected future date only etc.)

Keep people's minds busy while at the track and have them come back.

I many times wish the marketing people at all tracks would ask all of the diehards for ideas and implement them.

Getting back to reality series, there are a lot of people with money in this game. I'm surprised one, like Repole, who loves this game, hasn't created a reality series and paid for it out of his own pocket to promote the game. There are so many variations can that can be applied to make it "WOW".

This may be cruel to say, but Everytime I've brought someone to the track (this is going back many years ago) they would always say the same thing. They would say 'there's a lot of old people here' I've also heard from dates I've brought to racetracks that the men are creepy and leering like they never saw a young girl before.

Young people prefer to be around other young people, the minute they walk into a track and see most old and downtrodden men and 80 year old 'tellers' begging for tips, its not something they want to come back to. Hard to Blame them.

[EMD4ME]

There is nothing you can do.Learning to handicap is too hard and time consuming in today's world.Racing can never compete with fantasy etc.

So, why not make racing a bit more like fantasy? That would take all the racetracks collaberating amongst themselves but it could work. Have 20 tracks that run across the country on a Saturday work together in authorizing a nationwide contest. Instead of football players being involved there would be jockeys/horses/trainers. People draft their team, root them on after paying a weekly entry fee, advertise the crap out of it, take a vig and pay the winners.

Give them free entries if they 1) show up a track near them and 2) bet $100 for the day. (easily tracked via a daily track card or similar device).

Grow the interest up to millions per week, advertise the winners on all social media, TV, radio etc.

[EMD4ME]

This may be cruel to say, but Everytime I've brought someone to the track (this is going back many years ago) they would always say the same thing. They would say 'there's a lot of old people here' I've also heard from dates I've brought to racetracks that the men are creepy and leering like they never saw a young girl before.

Young people prefer to be around other young people, the minute they walk into a track and see most old and downtrodden men and 80 year old 'tellers' begging for tips, its not something they want to come back to. Hard to Blame them.

I've lived the same life. You only bring a GF or date to Saratoga or Belmont in the spring meet (as I live in NY). Never AQUEDUCT (unless you want to never see her again LOL) or the Belmont fall meet (many fewer families there on a colder day in the backyard).

But again, that is on racetrack management. They failed to reach out to the younger people with promotions.

[Cratos]

Promote the game seems to suggest we keep things the same and just market it better. I think the problem is basically that the game is run by the horsemen who have their own best interests at heart, and the fans and customers know this.

If the customer doesn't come first, than you're not going to have as much success as you would otherwise.
You are correct, this game is run by the horsemen, but isn't that the way it has been since its inception.

Furthermore take a look at its business structure; all entities are independent and not under any governing body except their respective state governments.

The change will have to be catastrophic to make a significant difference and that change is on its way.

[Poindexter]

What is there to promote? Come to your local racetrack and get gouged while sharp handicapping experts with inside connections get big fat rebates and knock out most of the value from the pools. I can't understand why the masses aren't standing in line to come play this game. You fix the broken model and you have something to promote, you don't and your existing customer base gets slowly or quickly siphoned into the neighboring casino. For the casino owned racetracks life could not be better. Barring the 2 days a year that Gulfstream is giving a way over half a million dollars a year on a 20 cent pick six, not really much for the layman. He is going to spend all the years we did learning this game when the deck is much more stack against him then it ever was. The good news is he probably doesn't know how stacked the deck is, but unfortunately it doesn't take long to find out and that is when he runs to the competition.

Moreover how are you going to complete with fantasy sports. Who doesn't watch sports. I don't know jack about fantasy sports, but if I knew nothing about racing and fantasy sports, what would be my motivation for selecting racing? If you can answer that question convincingly, well I guess that would be the answer to the OP.

Meanwhile, I am going to bring up a question to all of you. What are pace advantage poster doing to promote racing. It seems like 75% of you maybe more take on NYRA, but barring a big stakes race every now and again, I see virtually no pre race discussion about any races. I know trade secrets. It seems like every few weeks someone is coming up with a thread how do I handicap, or do better. I know buy a book that was written 30 years ago......How about picking 2 or 3 races a day, every day and everyone who is able to, participate in the discussion. Give some newbies(or even seasoned cappers) in this forum a chance to really learn the sport from players who really know the sport. Everyone learns and everyone benefits and down the road your $2 a race bettors of today become $20 or $30 a race bettors. That is one way to promote the sport on a small scale.

[ReplayRandall]

I know trade secrets.

What secrets are you willing to share?

[thaskalos]

The top tracks run during a terribly inconvenient time-slot...and the night tracks are too dishonest to venture a serious wager on. The game says that it depends on the mutuel handle for its survival...but elects to run its marquee tracks at a time when only the retirees and the unemployed can follow along. It's too late to bring the crowds back to the racetrack. The thing to do now is to make it more convenient for the people to bet their money in any way that they can. Who is supposed to do the betting when the "decent" tracks run from 12:00 to 5:00 from Monday to Friday?

The tracks are flush with casino money, and they still don't want to lower the takeout. FINE! Can't they at least dip into those casino profits a little bit, and print up some past performances to hand out to their customers for FREE? Must they squeeze every single dollar that they can from their much-maligned customers? If the customer is spared the expense of paying $10 a day for past-performances...won't he put that $10 right back into the mutuel pools? How can the game lose?

If I were the manager of the OTB that I frequent...I swear that I would increase business by 100% virtually overnight. There are established businessmen with plenty of money to spend who go there regularly, and bet with both hands. These are people who can blow a $1000 without blinking an eyelid, and they order a sandwich to eat...and the waitress hands them a $15 check...even though she sees that these guys have a mountain of losing mutuel tickets on their table. Where is the manager of the joint...so he can give these prime customers the respect and the courtesy that they deserve? Doesn't the manager know that the casinos have liberal comps in place for customers such as these? Don't you deserve a free Form and a free sandwich when you walk in and push thousands of dollars through their machines? Wouldn't it be a welcomed gesture if the manager came out from his office long enough to pick up a lunch tab for his best customers?

You walk into a casino and spread some serious money around...and you get more attention than you bargain for. There are freebies for you all over the place. But if you walk into a track or an OTB, you can lose a million dollars in a week...and still be completely ignored. And they'll still charge you for your racing form and your sandwich.

[salty]

1. One big problem that is never going to be solved is the average person doesn't care enough to learn how to handicap.


2. Tracks should post more random betting angles to snare more dollars and players. Put up a board that has winning numbers for the last two weeks. Put up another board that has what color silks have won more races. Etc..

3. Put more focus on horses that continuously ride at that track. Try to build stars. For example have a diehard claimer that is ALWAYS in the mix. Call him hokey pokey man. Every other week. Come see if hokey pokey man can win it today, if he does everyone on track gets a free program for tomorrow.

4. Add more fun things to do between races. Like how come there are no carousels at the track? Shouldn't they all have one! It's only the most iconic horse themed ride. Throw up a little carny area with games to win stuffed animals.

5. Make the place cleaner. Who wants to spend a day in a dirty place?

6. Add a sit down restaurant with perfect views of the track on the turns or something.

There's lots of things they can do. They all just seem to not care about catering to the fans.

[EMD4ME]

What is there to promote? Come to your local racetrack and get gouged while sharp handicapping experts with inside connections get big fat rebates and knock out most of the value from the pools. I can't understand why the masses aren't standing in line to come play this game. You fix the broken model and you have something to promote, you don't and your existing customer base gets slowly or quickly siphoned into the neighboring casino. For the casino owned racetracks life could not be better. Barring the 2 days a year that Gulfstream is giving a way over half a million dollars a year on a 20 cent pick six, not really much for the layman. He is going to spend all the years we did learning this game when the deck is much more stack against him then it ever was. The good news is he probably doesn't know how stacked the deck is, but unfortunately it doesn't take long to find out and that is when he runs to the competition.

Moreover how are you going to complete with fantasy sports. Who doesn't watch sports. I don't know jack about fantasy sports, but if I knew nothing about racing and fantasy sports, what would be my motivation for selecting racing? If you can answer that question convincingly, well I guess that would be the answer to the OP.

Meanwhile, I am going to bring up a question to all of you. What are pace advantage poster doing to promote racing. It seems like 75% of you maybe more take on NYRA, but barring a big stakes race every now and again, I see virtually no pre race discussion about any races. I know trade secrets. It seems like every few weeks someone is coming up with a thread how do I handicap, or do better. I know buy a book that was written 30 years ago......How about picking 2 or 3 races a day, every day and everyone who is able to, participate in the discussion. Give some newbies(or even seasoned cappers) in this forum a chance to really learn the sport from players who really know the sport. Everyone learns and everyone benefits and down the road your $2 a race bettors of today become $20 or $30 a race bettors. That is one way to promote the sport on a small scale.

I would sincerely advertise this game as a game for the wise and prepared. I would show a young lady, a married man, a couple in love, a grandfather pouring over PP's and replays, finding the nugget of info that they're looking for. I would show them all dressing up to look good, show them driving to the track, show them staring at their play in the paddock-with eyes gleeming, show them as they approach the sam machine/teller window, follow them to their seats and SHOW THEM ROOTING THEIR PLAY HOME amongst 5000 other people.

My AD would say: Are you smarter than your peer? Prove it and cash it.

Horse racing, mankind's game for the wise.

I've made some attempts, to create discussion amongst the newbies/sharpies. Wasn't much interaction, so I didn't do it again.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=124534&page=1&pp=15

Won't say I'll never do it again, just sayin

[EMD4ME]

The top tracks run during a terribly inconvenient time-slot...and the night tracks are too dishonest to venture a serious wager on. The game says that it depends on the mutuel handle for its survival...but elects to run its marquee tracks at a time when only the retirees and the unemployed can follow along. It's too late to bring the crowds back to the racetrack. The thing to do now is to make it more convenient for the people to bet their money in any way that they can. Who is supposed to do the betting when the "decent" tracks run from 12:00 to 5:00 from Monday to Friday?

The tracks are flush with casino money, and they still don't want to lower the takeout. FINE! Can't they at least dip into those casino profits a little bit, and print up some past performances to hand out to their customers for FREE? Must they squeeze every single dollar that they can from their much-maligned customers? If the customer is spared the expense of paying $10 a day for past-performances...won't he put that $10 right back into the mutuel pools? How can the game lose?

If I were the manager of the OTB that I frequent...I swear that I would increase business by 100% virtually overnight. There are established businessmen with plenty of money to spend who go there regularly, and bet with both hands. These are people who can blow a $1000 without blinking an eyelid, and they order a sandwich to eat...and the waitress hands them a $15 check...even though she sees that these guys have a mountain of losing mutuel tickets on their table. Where is the manager of the joint...so he can give these prime customers the respect and the courtesy that they deserve? Doesn't the manager know that the casinos have liberal comps in place for customers such as these? Don't you deserve a free Form and a free sandwich when you walk in and push thousands of dollars through their machines? Wouldn't it be a welcomed gesture if the manager came out from his office long enough to pick up a lunch tab for his best customers?

You walk into a casino and spread some serious money around...and you get more attention than you bargain for. There are freebies for you all over the place. But if you walk into a track or an OTB, you can lose a million dollars in a week...and still be completely ignored. And they'll still charge you for your racing form and your sandwich.

As usual, another well thought out and written post.

It is frustrating that in most places (I can only speak for NYRA and they do a good job overall) they have no idea who their best customer is and they bleed them to death.

I am sure you would increase business 100% overnight. You're a die hard with a brain.

[EMD4ME]

1. One big problem that is never going to be solved is the average person doesn't care enough to learn how to handicap.


2. Tracks should post more random betting angles to snare more dollars and players. Put up a board that has winning numbers for the last two weeks. Put up another board that has what color silks have won more races. Etc..

3. Put more focus on horses that continuously ride at that track. Try to build stars. For example have a diehard claimer that is ALWAYS in the mix. Call him hokey pokey man. Every other week. Come see if hokey pokey man can win it today, if he does everyone on track gets a free program for tomorrow.

4. Add more fun things to do between races. Like how come there are no carousels at the track? Shouldn't they all have one! It's only the most iconic horse themed ride. Throw up a little carny area with games to win stuffed animals.

5. Make the place cleaner. Who wants to spend a day in a dirty place?

6. Add a sit down restaurant with perfect views of the track on the turns or something.

There's lots of things they can do. They all just seem to not care about catering to the fans.

Some excellent ideas Salty.

I do agree with many who say the game needs to be fixed first before it's promoted to death. Why not do both at the same time?

Why not create an advisory board, with all die hard players and some newbies?

It's sad as I knew a marketing person at a track. He grew frustrated himself with the BS and limited ability to make change. He gave up and left the industry.

[MonmouthParkJoe]

1-Some tracks do have giveaways and second chance tickets, free voucher giveaways, ect. The Meadowlands comes to mind. And they do use social media. I wish more tracks did. The fact is, if you dedicate a resource to it, it is one of the cheapest ways of marketing.
2-Try to promote jockeys or trainers. The sad fact is a lot of the star horses in this game are gone too soon. AP at least had people talking about racing for the last couple months, but after this year he is gone
3-Making racing a commodity. I think it was mentioned here, who is betting these tracks that run during the week, 15 times a day. One of the reasons HK does so well is the limited availability. The dates are limited and people feel as if they don't get out and bet they will lose the chance to do so. Segway into.....
4-Boutique meets/racing festivals. There is a reason Saratoga and Del Mar, Keeneland ect do so well. Aside from being gorgeous, the dates are limited. You know that for six weeks you can experience the best racing around, and if you don't get there its gone till next year. This is why I go as often as possible. Same idea as being a commodity.
5-A racing commission-While this may never happen because too many states have their hands out, we need one governing body to run the game. Resources need to be coordinated across state lines. Too many tracks run at the same times resulting in smaller fields. Sometimes less racing is more.Medication can be uniform, ect
6-There has to be more attractions to get people there. Concerts, promotions, other things aside from racing. At least more people will be exposed to it.
7-Customer service-Treat your players like it matters. Play to the strengths of the track. Each track has its own strengths. I love nothing more than rolling my cooler into Monmouth on a hot summer day and sitting in the breezy backyard with a beer. Reinforce to your staff to at least look happy. Seriously, how much does it cost to smile?
8-Have open meetings between management and the customer base. Be open and accessible to what has been working, what isn't working, and what we can do to fix it. Be present and visible during live racing. It shows you care about your product. Why should we care if you don't?

I can go on and on. I hope to change it one day and will absolutely use this site as a resource. Just remember, if they don't know its broken it cant be fixed. Speak up!

[whodoyoulike]

... Meanwhile, I am going to bring up a question to all of you. What are pace advantage poster doing to promote racing. It seems like 75% of you maybe more take on NYRA, but barring a big stakes race every now and again, I see virtually no pre race discussion about any races. I know trade secrets. It seems like every few weeks someone is coming up with a thread how do I handicap, or do better. I know buy a book that was written 30 years ago......How about picking 2 or 3 races a day, every day and everyone who is able to, participate in the discussion. Give some newbies(or even seasoned cappers) in this forum a chance to really learn the sport from players who really know the sport. Everyone learns and everyone benefits and down the road your $2 a race bettors of today become $20 or $30 a race bettors. That is one way to promote the sport on a small scale.

From the beginning, I've tried to encourage these discussions and without revealing "secrets" because in order to handicap it does require a lot of experience. The newbies don't know where to begin and it seems the seasoned cappers have forgotten what it was like way back when they started.

I agree with you that both newbies and experienced can quickly learn from candid discussions. Everyone is an adult and can make up their own mind and figure out what works for them. I've learned a long time ago that every race is unique despite similarities. A lot of people will need to participate to make it a productive (interactive) exercise. We used to call it "brainstorming" problems.

Uncertain if people still use that term but, it used to work.

Getting back to the OP, it may just come down to the need to reduce the number of tracks running as we've discussed before that we need to follow a Hong Kong racing formula i.e., fewer racing and larger fields with a lot of readily available data and if "they" can reduce take out .... all the bettors will be happy.

[fmhealth]

Incorporate racing into Fan Duel & Draft kings. They appeal to the identical metrics that racing so desperately needs. Youth, free cash flow, interest in the facts & figures that comprise a bet & played by gamblers very keen on a constant flow of action.

These businesses are on the forefront of what gambling will look like in the not too distant future. I envision a material spike in business & a large focused group of new bettors. If implemented correctly, FD & DKs could offer-up an eclectic array of infinite possibilities. At the very least worth serious consideration by the industry.

Be Well,
fmhealth

[thaskalos]

I would sincerely advertise this game as a game for the wise and prepared. I would show a young lady, a married man, a couple in love, a grandfather pouring over PP's and replays, finding the nugget of info that they're looking for. I would show them all dressing up to look good, show them driving to the track, show them staring at their play in the paddock-with eyes gleeming, show them as they approach the sam machine/teller window, follow them to their seats and SHOW THEM ROOTING THEIR PLAY HOME amongst 5000 other people.

My AD would say: Are you smarter than your peer? Prove it and cash it.

Horse racing, mankind's game for the wise.



I would begin the silent clip by showing a college professor lecturing to a full classroom. Then I would cut to a lawyer debating his case in a packed courtroom. Then to an operating table...where a surgeon is in the midst of a complicated surgical procedure, while he is helped by his anxious staff. Then to a construction site...where a skilled bricklayer is plying his trade in the hot sun. And finally to a grandfather-type...who is lovingly tending to his garden. And then I would place all five of them at adjacent tables at the racetrack, as they are meticulously studying the past-performances, searching for the next race's winners...while the horses are being saddled in the background.

And now, Morgan Freeman's voice goes on:

"The outside world knows them as teachers, lawyers, doctors, bricklayers...and retirees. But here...every man is equal...in his steadfast pursuit of the next winner. Who you are doesn't count...it's all about how much you know. When you come here, you check your ego at the door...and you travel solely by your wits. Is there anything fairer than that?"

And then I end it with a close-up of a horse crossing the wire first...as the jockey triumphantly waves his stick in the air.

[EMD4ME]

I would begin the silent clip by showing a college professor lecturing to a full classroom. Then I would cut to a lawyer debating his case in a packed courtroom. Then to an operating table...where a surgeon is in the midst of a complicated surgical procedure, while he is helped by his anxious staff. Then to a construction site...where a skilled bricklayer is plying his trade in the hot sun. And finally to a grandfather-type...who is lovingly tending to his garden. And then I would place all five of them at adjacent tables at the racetrack, as they are meticulously studying the past-performances, searching for the next race's winners...while the horses are being saddled in the background.

And now, Morgan Freeman's voice goes on:

"The outside world knows them as teachers, lawyers, doctors, bricklayers...and retirees. But here...every man is equal...in his steadfast pursuit of the next winner. Who you are doesn't count...it's all about how much you know. When you come here, you check your ego at the door...and you travel solely by your wits. Is there anything fairer than that?"

And then I end it with a close-up of a horse crossing the wire first...as the jockey triumphantly waves his stick in the air.

LOVE IT! Monmouth Park Joe, are you listening? Hire this man when you find a home at a racetrack we wager on.

[salty]

I would begin the silent clip by showing a college professor lecturing to a full classroom. Then I would cut to a lawyer debating his case in a packed courtroom. Then to an operating table...where a surgeon is in the midst of a complicated surgical procedure, while he is helped by his anxious staff. Then to a construction site...where a skilled bricklayer is plying his trade in the hot sun. And finally to a grandfather-type...who is lovingly tending to his garden. And then I would place all five of them at adjacent tables at the racetrack, as they are meticulously studying the past-performances, searching for the next race's winners...while the horses are being saddled in the background.

And now, Morgan Freeman's voice goes on:

"The outside world knows them as teachers, lawyers, doctors, bricklayers...and retirees. But here...every man is equal...in his steadfast pursuit of the next winner. Who you are doesn't count...it's all about how much you know. When you come here, you check your ego at the door...and you travel solely by your wits. Is there anything fairer than that?"

And then I end it with a close-up of a horse crossing the wire first...as the jockey triumphantly waves his stick in the air.

Nice idea but I think it has to finish with them all losing and some schmo walking up to a smoking hot teller with huge tits. Then say "sometimes it's just luck"

[MonmouthParkJoe]

I like it too. Its true though. Doesn't matter what you do. You don't need a lot of money at the track, just a lot of winners

[Poindexter]

I would begin the silent clip by showing a college professor lecturing to a full classroom. Then I would cut to a lawyer debating his case in a packed courtroom. Then to an operating table...where a surgeon is in the midst of a complicated surgical procedure, while he is helped by his anxious staff. Then to a construction site...where a skilled bricklayer is plying his trade in the hot sun. And finally to a grandfather-type...who is lovingly tending to his garden. And then I would place all five of them at adjacent tables at the racetrack, as they are meticulously studying the past-performances, searching for the next race's winners...while the horses are being saddled in the background.
er
And now, Morgan Freeman's voice goes on:

"The outside world knows them as teachers, lawyers, doctors, bricklayers...and retirees. But here...every man is equal...in his steadfast pursuit of the next winner. Who you are doesn't count...it's all about how much you know. When you come here, you check your ego at the door...and you travel solely by your wits. Is there anything fairer than that?"

And then I end it with a close-up of a horse crossing the wire first...as the jockey triumphantly waves his stick in the air.


Very Good. :ThmbUp:

[NorCalGreg]

This may be cruel to say, but Everytime I've brought someone to the track (this is going back many years ago) they would always say the same thing. They would say 'there's a lot of old people here' I've also heard from dates I've brought to racetracks that the men are creepy and leering like they never saw a young girl before.

LMAO damn that's funny! Why would you bring young ladies to the track? And did you get a look at the restrooms at the track? The women's probably is just as nasty as the men's late in the day.
I don't have any room to talk--used to bring my kids to Bay Meadows all the time. Would bring in a pint of 151, buy a large coke on the way in (& a couple for the kids, of course) pour half the soda out, and have a nice outing with the kids.
No, I didn't win any Father of the Year Awards, just lucky they have a good Mother :) ...and those old creeps are still at the track. For some reason they never go down to the rail--just hang out by the bathrooms. Just shuddered thinking about 'em.

[Poindexter]

1-Some tracks do have giveaways and second chance tickets, free voucher giveaways, ect. The Meadowlands comes to mind. And they do use social media. I wish more tracks did. The fact is, if you dedicate a resource to it, it is one of the cheapest ways of marketing.
2-Try to promote jockeys or trainers. The sad fact is a lot of the star horses in this game are gone too soon. AP at least had people talking about racing for the last couple months, but after this year he is gone
3-Making racing a commodity. I think it was mentioned here, who is betting these tracks that run during the week, 15 times a day. One of the reasons HK does so well is the limited availability. The dates are limited and people feel as if they don't get out and bet they will lose the chance to do so. Segway into.....
4-Boutique meets/racing festivals. There is a reason Saratoga and Del Mar, Keeneland ect do so well. Aside from being gorgeous, the dates are limited. You know that for six weeks you can experience the best racing around, and if you don't get there its gone till next year. This is why I go as often as possible. Same idea as being a commodity.
5-A racing commission-While this may never happen because too many states have their hands out, we need one governing body to run the game. Resources need to be coordinated across state lines. Too many tracks run at the same times resulting in smaller fields. Sometimes less racing is more.Medication can be uniform, ect
6-There has to be more attractions to get people there. Concerts, promotions, other things aside from racing. At least more people will be exposed to it.
7-Customer service-Treat your players like it matters. Play to the strengths of the track. Each track has its own strengths. I love nothing more than rolling my cooler into Monmouth on a hot summer day and sitting in the breezy backyard with a beer. Reinforce to your staff to at least look happy. Seriously, how much does it cost to smile?
8-Have open meetings between management and the customer base. Be open and accessible to what has been working, what isn't working, and what we can do to fix it. Be present and visible during live racing. It shows you care about your product. Why should we care if you don't?

I can go on and on. I hope to change it one day and will absolutely use this site as a resource. Just remember, if they don't know its broken it cant be fixed. Speak up!


Nice. What is your position at Monmouth Park?

[Stillriledup]

LMAO damn that's funny! Why would you bring young ladies to the track? And did you get a look at the restrooms at the track? The women's probably is just as nasty as the men's late in the day.
I don't have any room to talk--used to bring my kids to Bay Meadows all the time. Would bring in a pint of 151, buy a large coke on the way in (& a couple for the kids, of course) pour half the soda out, and have a nice outing with the kids.
No, I didn't win any Father of the Year Awards, just lucky they have a good Mother :) ...and those old creeps are still at the track. For some reason they never go down to the rail--just hang out by the bathrooms. Just shuddered thinking about 'em.

I brought them so I could show off my expertise. :D

[NorCalGreg]

I brought them so I could show off my expertise. :D

LOL I'm sure they were impressed. Hey SRU...Country Waltz is entered tomorrow in the 4th @ Mnr. 5-1 ML, if you want go on & put him up in the HTW. Up to you. I'm done giving you a hard time about CW. Might win now that everyone gave up on it.

[Stillriledup]

I would begin the silent clip by showing a college professor lecturing to a full classroom. Then I would cut to a lawyer debating his case in a packed courtroom. Then to an operating table...where a surgeon is in the midst of a complicated surgical procedure, while he is helped by his anxious staff. Then to a construction site...where a skilled bricklayer is plying his trade in the hot sun. And finally to a grandfather-type...who is lovingly tending to his garden. And then I would place all five of them at adjacent tables at the racetrack, as they are meticulously studying the past-performances, searching for the next race's winners...while the horses are being saddled in the background.

And now, Morgan Freeman's voice goes on:

"The outside world knows them as teachers, lawyers, doctors, bricklayers...and retirees. But here...every man is equal...in his steadfast pursuit of the next winner. Who you are doesn't count...it's all about how much you know. When you come here, you check your ego at the door...and you travel solely by your wits. Is there anything fairer than that?"

And then I end it with a close-up of a horse crossing the wire first...as the jockey triumphantly waves his stick in the air.

I would make this commercial.

Have a tall, dark and handsome man in a really expensive suit standing next to a slob with his belly hanging over his belt, mustard stains on his shirt and holes in his shoes. They're both looking up at a TV monitor and both start to root, the rich guy starts saying 'c'mon 2, cmon 2' and then the poor guy starts rooting 'c'mon 3, c'mon 3' and as they get closer to the wire, the Rooting gets more passionate. The guy in the suit starts whipping his leg with a rolled up program, the slovenly guy starts screaming with gobs of food spraying out of his mouth (or, not lol) and as they HIT. THE. WIRE It's evident that the poor guys horse is going to win.

The Slob wins! And he proceeds to go NUTS rubbing it into the rich guy, he shoves the ticket in the guys face while dancing a circle and doing the jig like Bruce Willis.

Then the narrator comes on and says 'if this guy can win, how hard can it be, the racetrack, easier than the lottery and a LOT more fun!'

[Stillriledup]

LOL I'm sure they were impressed. Hey SRU...Country Waltz is entered tomorrow in the 4th @ Mnr. 5-1 ML, if you want go on & put him up in the HTW. Up to you. I'm done giving you a hard time about CW. Might win now that everyone gave up on it.

I saw he was entered, I didn't hcp the race, does he have a shot?

[EMD4ME]

I would make this commercial.

Have a tall, dark and handsome man in a really expensive suit standing next to a slob with his belly hanging over his belt, mustard stains on his shirt and holes in his shoes. They're both looking up at a TV monitor and both start to root, the rich guy starts saying 'c'mon 2, cmon 2' and then the poor guy starts rooting 'c'mon 3, c'mon 3' and as they get closer to the wire, the Rooting gets more passionate. The guy in the suit starts whipping his leg with a rolled up program, the slovenly guy starts screaming with gobs of food spraying out of his mouth (or, not lol) and as they HIT. THE. WIRE It's evident that the poor guys horse is going to win.

The Slob wins! And he proceeds to go NUTS rubbing it into the rich guy, he shoves the ticket in the guys face while dancing a circle and doing the jig like Bruce Willis.

Then the narrator comes on and says 'if this guy can win, how hard can it be, the racetrack, easier than the lottery and a LOT more fun!'

:D :D :D

Can you and Thaskalos play the 2 roles in the commercial? :D :D

[thaskalos]

:D :D :D

Can you and Thaskalos play the 2 roles in the commercial? :D :D
If we did...who would be the tall handsome guy in the expensive suit? :)

[EMD4ME]

If we did...who would be the tall handsome guy in the expensive suit? :)

Well, of course the one who's NOT playing the SLOB silly ;) :D

[NorCalGreg]

I saw he was entered, I didn't hcp the race, does he have a shot?

Here is your comment right directly AFTER CW's last race 2 weeks ago...you were ready to fight anyone that said a bad word about COUNTRY WALTZ

You'll be wise to stick that runner in your stable mail for safe keeping, might have been a little voodoo magic, but he was the best horse in there by a comfortable margin and found a way to not hit the ticket.

He rode the horse on the backstretch and into the far turn like the horses in front of him had bubonic plague.

Then somehow he left a wide open rail to steer behind another runner into the far turn, than in the lane his rapid fire whips changed, to my eye it looked like he changed his whipping motion, seemed to get less aggressive, not sure what that was about he was gobbling up that runner and then magically couldn't go past.

Like I said he will crush those next time if he races vs similar, you can bump this thread when he wins next time and thank me. ;)

[burnsy]

There is nothing you can do.Learning to handicap is too hard and time consuming in today's world.Racing can never compete with fantasy etc.

That's where I think horse racing is missing something. Doing those fantasy deals is time consuming and difficult too. I tried a season one once and it sucked because people spend hours every week making changes. Now, they have these weekly ones and the thing has exploded. Horse racing may have to get into this "fantasy business" where people design their own "barn" for a weekend. You get to pick some owners a couple trainers and horses. The "run for the Roses" thing that CD used to have was almost there. Some of the younger people care about fantasy points more than the actual games but its selling and now everyone is following it. Its gambling and it gets whole segments on all the networks now.

[MJC922]

That's where I think horse racing is missing something. Doing those fantasy deals is time consuming and difficult too. I tried a season one once and it sucked because people spend hours every week making changes. Now, they have these weekly ones and the thing has exploded. Horse racing may have to get into this "fantasy business" where people design their own "barn" for a weekend. You get to pick some owners a couple trainers and horses. The "run for the Roses" thing that CD used to have was almost there. Some of the younger people care about fantasy points more than the actual games but its selling and now everyone is following it. Its gambling and it gets whole segments on all the networks now.


Good post. I could see that working. The whole idea for this industry to look into what's making fantasy football work, what payout options are driving the popularity and what horse racing does not offer by comparison as a betting proposition should be studied closely.

[burnsy]

MJC922. I think once it went weekly and the payouts were immediate after the games..........this exploded. That's some of the points they sell. Less time, less commitment, immediate rewards if you win. Horse racing could do Saturday and Sunday deals...or even single days.

[pandy]

Harness racing has a fantasy betting website, Fantasytrot.com. I haven't tried it.

[Stillriledup]

Here is your comment right directly AFTER CW's last race 2 weeks ago...you were ready to fight anyone that said a bad word about COUNTRY WALTZ

So it sounds like you should bet everything you own! :ThmbUp:

[ultracapper]

MJC922. I think once it went weekly and the payouts were immediate after the games..........this exploded. That's some of the points they sell. Less time, less commitment, immediate rewards if you win. Horse racing could do Saturday and Sunday deals...or even single days.

Horse racing already offers less time (about 30 minutes between races) and immediate rewards (you get paid immediately after the race is over if you have the winner). The problem with selling horse racing is the handicapping commitment, and then after making all that commitment, still not being able to regularly pick a winner.

[aaron]

The perception is that horse racing is an insiders game. Sudden changes in odds and and the takeout are killing the game. Nobody teaches the game anymore. Certain situations can only be recognized with experience. In NY,the way the game is played these days by the jockey's makes the game even harder. In some races,it resembles the trotters.
To promote racing,all these things have to change.
The biggest problem is getting people to the track for meets other than Saratoga,Delmar, and Keenland. Maybe,I am wrong,but I don't think customers will travel to go to a track on a daily basis,so unless the track offers something not available at home,bettors will not come. Small bettors start out with at least an extra bet or two by staying home. Big bettors get better rebates by betting at home,so the draw to go to the track is not there.

[MonmouthParkJoe]

Nice. What is your position at Monmouth Park?


I don't work at Monmouth Park. Just a fan.

[cutchemist42]

That's a great point CJ.

It's almost as if it's Taboo to discuss wagering on NBC broadcasts over the years. I'd love to see a documentary or a darn commercial showing Joe Shmo handicapping a card, playing a pick 6 and making $500,000 on a PICK 6.

Why has that been the case for years? (Not counting TVG and their "expert" pick 4 selections)

Yeah, the handicapping aspect is weak on NBC telecasts. I've felt that the Jockey Club Tour on Fox has been better about it. All NBC has is like Eddie O making picks, but not going into detail why.

To an outsider, it just all seems really mysterious.

[Buckeye]

Yeah, the handicapping aspect is weak on NBC telecasts. I've felt that the Jockey Club Tour on Fox has been better about it. All NBC has is like Eddie O making picks, but not going into detail why.

To an outsider, it just all seems really mysterious.

Me too!

[cutchemist42]

Horse racing already offers less time (about 30 minutes between races) and immediate rewards (you get paid immediately after the race is over if you have the winner). The problem with selling horse racing is the handicapping commitment, and then after making all that commitment, still not being able to regularly pick a winner.

And then upon picking a winner, not getting enough money back depending on the pool.

[Buckeye]

Anyway, life is just a mystery wrapped inside an enigma.

[EMD4ME]

And then upon picking a winner, not getting enough money back depending on the pool.

I'm not ashamed to admit that when I am not playing PICK 6's, PICK 5's or PICK 4's, I do make what I call "almost guaranteed parlays".

Meaning....$200 show on 2, 2 pays $2.40, $240 then goes on 1 to place, pays $3.00, $360 show on 7, pays $2.60, return $468.00 on a $200 wager.

I select 3 very easy races, play unagressively to ensure a super high ratio of wins.

What's wrong with marketing the game as a 70 second well paying mutual fund return?

I look at my place/show parlays as 20% parlayed/compounded into 50% return/compounded into a 30% return.

I would think there is a population out there, stock traders, market people that would find a 40% return fascinating, whereas I'm sure there are people who view a $50 exacta to be boring. Why not cater to various market segments?

[Buckeye]

Then again I could be right about that.

There are problems which cannot be solved again I could be right about that.

Horse racing is just another example. There are too many variables and that's the good news.

[Buckeye]

I'm not ashamed to admit that when I am not playing PICK 6's, PICK 5's or PICK 4's, I do make what I call "almost guaranteed parlays".

Meaning....$200 show on 2, 2 pays $2.40, $240 then goes on 1 to place, pays $3.00, $360 show on 7, pays $2.60, return $468.00 on a $200 wager.

I select 3 very easy races, play unagressively to ensure a super high ratio of wins.

What's wrong with marketing the game as a 70 second well paying mutual fund return?

I look at my place/show parlays as 20% parlayed/compounded into 50% return/compounded into a 30% return.

I would think there is a population out there, stock traders, market people that would find a 40% return fascinating, whereas I'm sure there are people who view a $50 exacta to be boring. Why not cater to various market segments?

I would guess you are right but since it is a parimutuel game there has to be X amount up for grabs.

[AndyC]

Yeah, the handicapping aspect is weak on NBC telecasts. I've felt that the Jockey Club Tour on Fox has been better about it. All NBC has is like Eddie O making picks, but not going into detail why.

To an outsider, it just all seems really mysterious.

Start talking about handicapping and the fans watching who aren't handicappers will turn on another program. The handicappers watching will complain that the person doing the handicapping on TV is weak.

[NorCalGreg]

Harness racing has a fantasy betting website, Fantasytrot.com. I haven't tried it.

"Fantasy Betting"? Anyone ever played Poker for "funsies"? After the second or third hand you realize it aint no fun. Any kind of gambling game isn't fun if if losing doesn't cause the loser some kind of PAIN. Or winning doesn't give the winner some kind of Elation.
If you're a billionaire, and bet $2.00 on the fav at the track, and win, and dance all the way to the window....you're just a greedy ol' sumbitch :lol:
(that's a degenerate gambler's perspective)

-NCG/DegenerateGambler

[EMD4ME]

I would guess you are right but since it is a parimutuel game there has to be X amount up for grabs.

I've thought about that as well. You can't ignore the elephant in the room (takeout). I would advertise that in an 8 horse field, if you can safely handicap that 2 9/1 to shots or 1 4/1 shot is not a likely winner, you've just made it a positive sum game.

I know I'm stretching and my delivery isn't great but it's a thought.

[whodoyoulike]

I'm not ashamed to admit that when I am not playing PICK 6's, PICK 5's or PICK 4's, I do make what I call "almost guaranteed parlays".

Meaning....$200 show on 2, 2 pays $2.40, $240 then goes on 1 to place, pays $3.00, $360 show on 7, pays $2.60, return $468.00 on a $200 wager.

I select 3 very easy races, play unagressively to ensure a super high ratio of wins.

What's wrong with marketing the game as a 70 second well paying mutual fund return?

I look at my place/show parlays as 20% parlayed/compounded into 50% return/compounded into a 30% return.

I would think there is a population out there, stock traders, market people that would find a 40% return fascinating, whereas I'm sure there are people who view a $50 exacta to be boring. Why not cater to various market segments?


Wait a sec!!

Now I'm beginning to think you're just messing with me with posts like this.

[Stillriledup]

Start talking about handicapping and the fans watching who aren't handicappers will turn on another program. The handicappers watching will complain that the person doing the handicapping on TV is weak.

If you're not a handicapper, we don't want cha. Hopefully they will turn the channel. This is a mans game, maybe they can flip on the Housewives of Laguna Beach instead :D

[ebcorde]

It'll never go with these christian conservatives in this country. They don't want anyone to have fun.




placing emphasis on value picks , and getting people off the chalk.

betting sites like Betfair exchange. kinda like the stock market

Big races and National TV exposure, a Racing channel that's part of the basic cable/dish package. I have direct TV/Sunday Ticket and I refuse to pay extra for TVG/HRTV.



The kids like the cards , the new thing is this Fantasy sports, I think that will take over the poker. How they're getting way with it is beyond me, but you can't do Horses that way

[GatetoWire]

Here is an article you should read about what is really going on in Daily Fantasy Sports.

You Aren't Good Enough to Win Money Playing Daily Fantasy Football
Is that a problem for DraftKings and FanDuel?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-10/you-aren-t-good-enough-to-win-money-playing-daily-fantasy-football


It's a pretty interesting read. Looks like it's dominated by Whales.

[AndyC]

If you're not a handicapper, we don't want cha. Hopefully they will turn the channel. This is a mans game, maybe they can flip on the Housewives of Laguna Beach instead :D

Honestly, if you are watching a race on network TV are you really watching to hear somebody handicap a race? Real handicappers don't need to be reassured by a talking head on TV nor will they be swayed by a differing opinion.

[v j stauffer]

I'm not ashamed to admit that when I am not playing PICK 6's, PICK 5's or PICK 4's, I do make what I call "almost guaranteed parlays".

Meaning....$200 show on 2, 2 pays $2.40, $240 then goes on 1 to place, pays $3.00, $360 show on 7, pays $2.60, return $468.00 on a $200 wager.

I select 3 very easy races, play unagressively to ensure a super high ratio of wins.

What's wrong with marketing the game as a 70 second well paying mutual fund return?

I look at my place/show parlays as 20% parlayed/compounded into 50% return/compounded into a 30% return.

I would think there is a population out there, stock traders, market people that would find a 40% return fascinating, whereas I'm sure there are people who view a $50 exacta to be boring. Why not cater to various market segments?

Boy do I feel stupid. I actually entertained the off chance that you're not a total f**king moron.

Wow, there's a few hours I'll never get back.

You do understand you got charged the full commission/takeout on all three of those wagers?

Oh, most importantly, could you please send me the master list of the "EASY" races for this week?

Just when you think you've heard it all.

OMG :bang: :bang: :bang:

[thaskalos]

Boy do I feel stupid. I actually entertained the off chance that you're not a total f**king moron.

Wow, there's a few hours I'll never get back.

You do understand you got charged the full commission/takeout on all three of those wagers?

Oh, most importantly, could you please send me the master list of the "EASY" races for this week?

Just when you think you've heard it all.

OMG :bang: :bang: :bang:

I bet you wouldn't talk like that if you still had a job.

[v j stauffer]

I bet you wouldn't talk like that if you still had a job.

You'd win that bet. When I represented either Hollywood Park or the CHRB I would not have contributed in that form.

However, now that I'm retired " In my club I'll splash the pot whenever the f**k I want"

[ReplayRandall]

Storm Clouds forming in this thread....Watch out for lightning strikes.

[thaskalos]

You'd win that bet. When I represented either Hollywood Park or the CHRB I would not have contributed in that form.

However, now that I'm retired " In my club I'll splash the pot whenever the f**k I want"
True. But you must remember that EMD4ME's comment was far from the most moronic display that we have ever seen here on this board.

As I recall, not too long ago...a rather well-known horse racing personality came to this site, to shamelessly solicit backers for a poker tournament escapade. He presented himself as a serious player with numerous tournament wins to recommend him...and, surprisingly, was able to find a couple of takers of his offer...or so he said. And then...he proceeded to blow his stack in a couple of hands which even a rank amateur would have played with greater skill. He blew the investors' money, and yet...no one called him a "f**king moron".

At least EMD4ME didn't cost anyone any money.

[Poindexter]

Boy do I feel stupid. I actually entertained the off chance that you're not a total f**king moron.

Wow, there's a few hours I'll never get back.

You do understand you got charged the full commission/takeout on all three of those wagers?

Oh, most importantly, could you please send me the master list of the "EASY" races for this week?

Just when you think you've heard it all.

OMG :bang: :bang: :bang:

Vic, not sure I agree with you here. Now admittedly I do not employ this type of strategy, but I think there are people that can utilize the proper patience and selectivity and turn some of these "cinches" into + roi bets in any of the the pools. Once you get in to the + roi territory, by parlaying you are increasing your roi.

For example lets say I have 3 horses that I think are 90% chance to show and they each pay $2.40 minimum to show(these horse may be 3 days apart so I do not have the luxury of combining them in a pick 3). So my expected roi is 1.08 (.9*2.4). Now by parlaying the 3 I have a .729 chance of all 3 coming in the money. A 3 horse parlay for $100 comes back 172.8. The expected return on that parlay is 172.8 *.729 is 125.97 or a pretty impressive almost 26% expected profit. Now this is all much easier said than done and these horses are always subject to during the race odds plummets, but theoretically it is a sound approach. If somebody told me they were successful using such a strategy, I would have no reason to doubt them.

[v j stauffer]

True. But you must remember that EMD4ME's comment was far from the most moronic display that we have ever seen here on this board.

As I recall, not too long ago...a rather well-known horse racing personality came to this site, to shamelessly solicit backers for a poker tournament escapade. He presented himself as a serious player with numerous tournament wins to recommend him...and, surprisingly, was able to find a couple of takers of his offer...or so he said. And then...he proceeded to blow his stack in a couple of hands which even a rank amateur would have played with greater skill. He blew the investors' money, and yet...no one called him a "f**king moron".

At least EMD4ME didn't cost anyone any money.

I didn't solicit anything or anyone.

I said if someone wanted some action and would like to follow along they could come aboard. Two PA members did contributing a total of $300. Both thanked me for the experience.

I severely underestimated the skill of my opponents and overestimated my readiness to compete at that level. We live and learn.

I did have a great life experience.

Why not worry about yourself? I don't care what you do. Why do you care what I do?

EMD4ME is a big boy. If he doesn't like or agree with my words I'm sure I'll hear about it.

Busy body's are ponderous.

[v j stauffer]

Vic, not sure I agree with you here. Now admittedly I do not employ this type of strategy, but I think there are people that can utilize the proper patience and selectivity and turn some of these "cinches" into + roi bets in any of the the pools. Once you get in to the + roi territory, by parlaying you are increasing your roi.

For example lets say I have 3 horses that I think are 90% chance to show and they each pay $2.40 minimum to show(these horse may be 3 days apart so I do not have the luxury of combining them in a pick 3). So my expected roi is 1.08 (.9*2.4). Now by parlaying the 3 I have a .729 chance of all 3 coming in the money. A 3 horse parlay for $100 comes back 172.8. The expected return on that parlay is 172.8 *.729 is 125.97 or a pretty impressive almost 26% expected profit. Now this is all much easier said than done and these horses are always subject to during the race odds plummets, but theoretically it is a sound approach. If somebody told me they were successful using such a strategy, I would have no reason to doubt them.

Fair enough. I'm not a math guy but it looks and sounds correct.

What I'm struggling with is the 90% to show part. You act as though the actual running of the race and results are a forgone conclusion.

That as we all know is easier said than done.

[thaskalos]

I didn't solicit anything or anyone.

I said if someone wanted some action and would like to follow along they could come aboard. Two PA members did contributing a total of $300. Both thanked me for the experience.

I severely underestimated the skill of my opponents and overestimated my readiness to compete at that level. We live and learn.

I did have a great life experience.

Why not worry about yourself? I don't care what you do. Why do you care what I do?

EMD4ME is a big boy. If he doesn't like or agree with my words I'm sure I'll hear about it.

Busy body's are ponderous.
This is my "club" too. Can't I also "splash the pot" whenever I want?

[v j stauffer]

This is my "club" too. Can't I also "splash the pot" whenever I want?

Of course. That's what this club is about.

[ebcorde]

Boy do I feel stupid. I actually entertained the off chance that you're not a total f**king moron.

Wow, there's a few hours I'll never get back.

You do understand you got charged the full commission/takeout on all three of those wagers?

Oh, most importantly, could you please send me the master list of the "EASY" races for this week?

Just when you think you've heard it all.

OMG :bang: :bang: :bang:


for $10 though, then if successful on a few rollovers I'll use it on the bet I intended to play that day. $200 or more on show, plenty guys do that for the derby American Pharoah paid 4.20 Buddy of mine bets a 2k on the favorite in the derby for show.

[Robert Goren]

Vic, not sure I agree with you here. Now admittedly I do not employ this type of strategy, but I think there are people that can utilize the proper patience and selectivity and turn some of these "cinches" into + roi bets in any of the the pools. Once you get in to the + roi territory, by parlaying you are increasing your roi.

For example lets say I have 3 horses that I think are 90% chance to show and they each pay $2.40 minimum to show(these horse may be 3 days apart so I do not have the luxury of combining them in a pick 3). So my expected roi is 1.08 (.9*2.4). Now by parlaying the 3 I have a .729 chance of all 3 coming in the money. A 3 horse parlay for $100 comes back 172.8. The expected return on that parlay is 172.8 *.729 is 125.97 or a pretty impressive almost 26% expected profit. Now this is all much easier said than done and these horses are always subject to during the race odds plummets, but theoretically it is a sound approach. If somebody told me they were successful using such a strategy, I would have no reason to doubt them.Sure thing show horses have habit of running out of the money at the most inopportune times. Plus the more you bet them, the more of them seem to be running. It is amazing how after cashing a couple of bets on them, how many more horses look like sure things. I doubt if many bettors can over come those optical illusions.

[Stillriledup]

Sure thing show horses have habit of running out of the money at the most inopportune times. Plus the more you bet them, the more of them seem to be running. It is amazing how after cashing a couple of bets on them, how many more horses look like sure things. I doubt if many bettors can over come those optical illusions.

Sure things rarely run out, it's the show bets made by morons on horses who have at least one glaring hole that run out.

[whodoyoulike]

... Once you get in to the + roi territory, by parlaying you are increasing your roi.

For example lets say I have 3 horses that I think are 90% chance to show and they each pay $2.40 minimum to show(these horse may be 3 days apart so I do not have the luxury of combining them in a pick 3). So my expected roi is 1.08 (.9*2.4). Now by parlaying the 3 I have a .729 chance of all 3 coming in the money. A 3 horse parlay for $100 comes back 172.8. The expected return on that parlay is 172.8 *.729 is 125.97 or a pretty impressive almost 26% expected profit. Now this is all much easier said than done and these horses are always subject to during the race odds plummets, but theoretically it is a sound approach. If somebody told me they were successful using such a strategy, I would have no reason to doubt them.


Each of the three horses has a 90% chance to at least show??

Now, I'm really beginning to think that you guys are messing** with me.

** by messing I mean it equals bleeping...

[thaskalos]

Sure things rarely run out, it's the show bets made by morons on horses who have at least one glaring hole that run out.
It depends on what you mean by "rarely". I have seen plenty of "sure things" run out...and I couldn't find any "glaring holes" in them.

[VeryOldMan]

Here is an article you should read about what is really going on in Daily Fantasy Sports.

You Aren't Good Enough to Win Money Playing Daily Fantasy Football
Is that a problem for DraftKings and FanDuel?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-10/you-aren-t-good-enough-to-win-money-playing-daily-fantasy-football

It's a pretty interesting read. Looks like it's dominated by Whales.
That was a very interesting read and it is applicable to why we're discussing this "dying game" (per the title). The bottom line is that the money flow in Daily Fantasy Football leagues goes heavily towards a small percentage of high-volume computerized "whales" and to the sites (house), and finally that leaves the vast majority of other bettors. Losing money. Not entirely dissimilar from horse racing.

But it's worse for horse racing, because it is a tough game to learn on the betting side. The racing form looks like hieroglyphics to the uninitiated, based on my attempts to teach it to some (smart) prospective fans. As opposed to putting Marcus Mariota on your fantasy team or tossing a few bucks into some NCAA basketball brackets. Buying lottery tickets. Etc.

[whodoyoulike]

Sure things rarely run out, it's the show bets made by morons on horses who have at least one glaring hole that run out.

I wonder if anyone has researched whether bridge jumpers are ahead in this game.

And, I really do respect your opinion SRU.

[Cratos]

That was a very interesting read and it is applicable to why we're discussing this "dying game" (per the title). The bottom line is that the money flow in Daily Fantasy Football leagues goes heavily towards a small percentage of high-volume computerized "whales" and to the sites (house), and finally that leaves the vast majority of other bettors. Losing money. Not entirely dissimilar from horse racing.

But it's worse for horse racing, because it is a tough game to learn on the betting side. The racing form looks like hieroglyphics to the uninitiated, based on my attempts to teach it to some (smart) prospective fans. As opposed to putting Marcus Mariota on your fantasy team or tossing a few bucks into some NCAA basketball brackets. Buying lottery tickets. Etc.
You are correct, Equibase/DRF PPs and charts are far too symbolic

[Cratos]

Each of the three horses has a 90% chance to at least show??

Now, I'm really beginning to think that you guys are messing** with me.

** by messing I mean it equals bleeping...
Would not odds of 90% to show pay $.10 on the dollar or $2.20?

[NorCalGreg]

You are correct, Equibase/DRF PPs and charts are far too symbolic

And which "symbols" are those, Professor Cratos? Everything found in those publications are all numbers based on High School math.

[whodoyoulike]

Would not odds of 90% to show pay $.10 on the dollar or $2.20?


I guess but, you'd have to find a legit 90% horse not once but xx times according to the previous post.

What are the odds of that happening?

[EMD4ME]

Wait a sec!!

Now I'm beginning to think you're just messing with me with posts like this.

Why would you think that I am messing with you? What concern/question was there with my post?

[Cratos]

And which "symbols" are those, Professor Cratos? Everything found in those publications are all numbers based on High School math.
Aoc40000nw2$/x-N
No it’s not and it is not math; it is simple arithmetic

[EMD4ME]

Boy do I feel stupid. I actually entertained the off chance that you're not a total f**king moron.

Wow, there's a few hours I'll never get back.

You do understand you got charged the full commission/takeout on all three of those wagers?

Oh, most importantly, could you please send me the master list of the "EASY" races for this week?

Just when you think you've heard it all.

OMG :bang: :bang: :bang:

I must say, I am shocked at your reply. (Not your language but the questions)

Yes, I'd be more than happy to send you, the races that I decide to parlay.

I really don't understand what you're insults are for.

Do you mean to tell me that I am the only one who decides to attack the game this way? What is wrong with taking $4.00, $3.20, $2.40, $3.00 and $3.00 and turning $200 into $1,944???

To be blunt, I'm not some dumbass who looks at a horse and says yippee, I'll bet him to show and make $2.40. I'm also not a dumbass who would select a horse who is not rock solid AND I MEAN ROCK SOLID. If I like a horse a lot to place, I might bet it to show in these parlays. If I love a horse to win, I'll still bet to place.

I look for races where the variables are few, the "Ifs" are near none and the track bias is in favor of my plays OR their is no bias in play.

I didn't even get into a little bit more aggressive round robin parlays that I play.

I used a simple ultra conservative example to illustrate how the game can be looked at as a MF or stock (yes, I get the fact that all it takes is 1 loss and you lose 100% of the investment). But all you have to do is be very careful in your selections (THEY CAN BE OVER DAYS) and be conservative.

Yes, I do utilize "almost guaranteed parlays" quite often. Have been doing so since NYRA had parlay cards in the 1990's.

It is an extremely intelligent and profitable way to play.

To answer your question: Of course I know that I am charged the vig 3 times. Why wouldn't I? These parlays are designed to take advantage of 2-5 races that I like but are unfortunately 1) not connected on the card and 2) that I do not want to treat as a P3 P4 P5.

So, please tell me Vic, what exactly prompted your unkind, rude and undeserved response?

I seriously believe you have been stupified by something so simple but yet so intelligent and just because YOU haven't heard about it or done it doesn't mean it's an indication that I am a F**ing Moron.

Maybe you should open your eyes a bit more as we always keep learning in life OR at least ask a question before you blast someone.

[Kash$]

I must say, I am shocked at your reply. (Not your language but the questions)

Yes, I'd be more than happy to send you, the races that I decide to parlay.

I really don't understand what you're insults are for.

Do you mean to tell me that I am the only one who decides to attack the game this way? What is wrong with taking $4.00, $3.20, $2.40, $3.00 and $3.00 and turning $200 into $1,944???

To be blunt, I'm not some dumbass who looks at a horse and says yippee, I'll bet him to show and make $2.40. I'm also not a dumbass who would select a horse who is not rock solid AND I MEAN ROCK SOLID. If I like a horse a lot to place, I might bet it to show in these parlays. If I love a horse to win, I'll still bet to place.

I look for races where the variables are few, the "Ifs" are near none and the track bias is in favor of my plays OR their is no bias in play.

I didn't even get into a little bit more aggressive round robin parlays that I play.

I used a simple ultra conservative example to illustrate how the game can be looked at as a MF or stock (yes, I get the fact that all it takes is 1 loss and you lose 100% of the investment). But all you have to do is be very careful in your selections (THEY CAN BE OVER DAYS) and be conservative.

Yes, I do utilize "almost guaranteed parlays" quite often. Have been doing so since NYRA had parlay cards in the 1990's.

It is an extremely intelligent and profitable way to play.

To answer your question: Of course I know that I am charged the vig 3 times. Why wouldn't I? These parlays are designed to take advantage of 2-5 races that I like but are unfortunately 1) not connected on the card and 2) that I do not want to treat as a P3 P4 P5.

So, please tell me Vic, what exactly prompted your unkind, rude and undeserved response?

I seriously believe you have been stupified by something so simple but yet so intelligent and just because YOU haven't heard about it or done it doesn't mean it's an indication that I am a F**ing Moron.

Maybe you should open your eyes a bit more as we always keep learning in life OR at least ask a question before you blast someone.

Everyone can LOOK...but not everyone can SEE

[v j stauffer]

Sure thing show horses have habit of running out of the money at the most inopportune times. Plus the more you bet them, the more of them seem to be running. It is amazing how after cashing a couple of bets on them, how many more horses look like sure things. I doubt if many bettors can over come those optical illusions.

Very sharp post.

[NorCalGreg]

*** That did seem a little out of character for Vic.

Yes, I'd be more than happy to send you, the races that I decide to parlay..

Just because Vic called you a F*** Moron, he gets sent the plays? You've been called out, bro--post them bad boys in the Selections area for a couple days at least. Your integrity has been called into question. LOL
(I really just want to see them :lol: )

[EMD4ME]

Sure things rarely run out, it's the show bets made by morons on horses who have at least one glaring hole that run out.

Exactly, when you do the work that I do and your ultra conservative, they run out 1 out of 50.

But again, I don't expect someone who doesn't watch every race, take notes on every horse, makes his own numbers, tracks his own track trends, trainer trends, follows the board very well, works with a gut instict very well to actually understand that.

I'm as aggressive as the next guy. I shoot for the major picks with 90% of my bankroll on most days.

Some days, those plays are just not the way to go and my stomach tells me that. Nothing wrong with taking a conservative route to profit.

Sep 4th 2015, took a conservative route at the SPA. I made the following wager:

$270 bucks Race 1 Show 4 Paid $2.90 =$391.50
Race 3 Place 1 Paid $3.50 =$685.12
Race 4 Show 4 Paid $3.10=$1,061.93
Race 7 Show 11 Paid $2.70=$1,433.60

The horses were the following:

The 11 in Race 7 was a rock solid second time starter who had some trouble but overcame it to run 2nd in his 1st start. He ran 5 or so lengths clear of the 3rd horse. Liked him to win, bet him to show to be conservative in this parlay, he ran a VERY clear 2nd best.

Race 4 featured the return of Zivo, who I did not like. Saratoga Snacks and the winner were the only 2 speeds, knew the odds of them killing eachother were remote. Bet safe, Saratoga Snacks to show, lost a nose on the wire. Never in doubt of blowing the place. Bet too conservatively but hit the show to collect a 55% return.

Race 3: Ack Naughty...This is the race many PA posters went nuts over JV's ride on Capriana. I thought the 4 would lead, Capriana would not run well from the pocket, that Ack Naughty would, even with a bad ride run 2nd. He did. $3.50 to place as Capriana ran out of the place spot.

Race 1: Take Cover: Bet to show in a 7 horse field just looking to compound the expected future winnings in races 3,4 and 7. He got an absolutely brutal trip and still got 3rd. Paid $2.90.

Some days, there won't be a single horse to parlay, so no parlays are made.

Some days, there are 7 or 8 horses to parlay in the place and show pools. In those cases I select 6 races. Round Robin them...Meaning if 5/6 hit, I collect. If all 6 win, I collect on 6 parlays. I don't mind if they pay $2.40, as long as I move on. Anything above $3.00 is actually a good return in a 4 5 or 6 race parlay.

But you can't force it. If there's only 2 races to play, 2 races it is.

Nothing wrong with playing over days as well.

You have to think this way when making these bets. If my life was on the line and I had to make a winning wager, which race will I select and why? Does it meet the criteria? If not, pass. If there's any doubt pass.

If I'm wrong and bust 4 out 5 times, I STILL COME OUT AHEAD.

[EMD4ME]

*** That did seem a little out of character for Vic.



Just because Vic called you a F*** Moron, he gets sent the plays? You've been called out, bro--post them bad boys in the Selections area for a couple days at least. Your integrity has been called into question. LOL
(I really just want to see them :lol: )

No problem. But it won't be forever. I am not here to give money away. But I doubt anyone will climb along for any serious money, so I'll do it.

[EMD4ME]

Everyone can LOOK...but not everyone can SEE

Yes they can, they have 60 hour classes that accredit you as an expert in watching inquiries. :lol: :lol: :lol:

Sorry, I just couldn't resist that. Especially after Vic kept insisting that Joel Rosario was at fault for that erroneous DQ back at Belmont in July when Irad Ortiz was undressed to his ankles and tried to cover it up with his dirty, illegal, foul causing and dangerous race riding.

Who knows, maybe he has it out for SRU and I for pointing out how to the naked eye, that race looked like the winner should have been DQ'd but to the trained eye, it was the supposed victim who caused the entire chain reaction.

[MJC922]

Someone in the industry should probably download Compendium and start a dialogue map on the subject of this thread.

Really just looking at FanDuel, what jumps out... I've never heard of the site but things do jump out right away. Look at 50/50's games, 40 players and the payback is top 20, people are grinding $10 for an $18 dollar payout. I don't know which types of contests get the majority of the action but it seems these things keep people engaged in following the games all day long and people aren't necessarily shooting for some huge score. Pay attention to a few key differences between a game like this and what racing currently offers,

(1) people aren't always playing for big scores, we're looking at less than even money on these 50/50 games.

(2) Half the participants get paid, and I suspect those people come back the next day or the next week to churn more money. Many people don't come back to the track for weeks. months... or ever again.

(3) Participants already know for sure what they will be paid if they do win, very important, compare show bets for example because they've already been mentioned in this thread, betting a horse which is paying to $3.80 to show at 1 MTP and seeing it come back $2.60, don't underestimate how much of a problem and a differentiator that is.

(4) It's not one and done but an extended ride. Having one or two players on the roster do nothing probably doesn't entirely kill your chances of payback. With racing it's very unforgiving, one loss and you're pretty much dead in the water and you may have spent quite a bit more than you wanted to playing savers to cover the potential for loss.

[EMD4ME]

Boy do I feel stupid. I actually entertained the off chance that you're not a total f**king moron.

Wow, there's a few hours I'll never get back.

You do understand you got charged the full commission/takeout on all three of those wagers?

Oh, most importantly, could you please send me the master list of the "EASY" races for this week?

Just when you think you've heard it all.

OMG :bang: :bang: :bang:

One last thought Vic, DO YOU UNDERSTAND that I make a full rebate on each and every parlay RACE, as long as it's not the state minimum that is paid back?

Betcha didn't think of that pal....

Using the example above, I really bet $200 but my HANDLE was $2408 on the wager. Multiple $2208 X one's rebate bracket X how many times a month you make a wager like this and VIOLA....Profit.

And I'm the F**ing Moron.... :rolleyes:

[NorCalGreg]

No problem. But it won't be forever. I am not here to give money away. But I doubt anyone will climb along for any serious money, so I'll do it.

Okay EMD.......way to step up. If you find this distracting--just drop it. Be sure thask has approved this.

[v j stauffer]

One last thought Vic, DO YOU UNDERSTAND that I make a full rebate on each and every parlay RACE, as long as it's not the state minimum that is paid back?

Betcha didn't think of that pal....

Using the example above, I really bet $200 but my HANDLE was $2408 on the wager. Multiple $2208 X one's rebate bracket X how many times a month you make a wager like this and VIOLA....Profit.

And I'm the F**en Moron.... :rolleyes:

Of course I thought of that. Who do you think you're dealing with here? I worked in every corner of the business from age 17 to 57, 40 years.

You think I don't know that high volume players are getting rebates?

I think you're right. I am the f**king moron for wasting my time talking to you.

What you're trying to do, by using handicapping opinion, has NEVER worked and will never work.

Thanks for playing though. The rest of us appreciate the free money. :ThmbUp:

[lamboguy]

what i have learned is that even though betting minus pools is the only way to win at this game, most people don't have a clue when to bet them and how to bet them. in today's world you will find a lot of money winding up on the wrong minus pool bet in the race.

i bet on and against the money and have been doing it for 40 years and i am still here walking the face of this beautiful earth.

[dilanesp]

EMD, math is tremendously important. So is variance. And so is discipline (Robert's point).

To pivot off of EMD's strategies for a moment, I think Andy Beyer mentioned years ago that one of his formative horse racing books was "The Education of a Poker Player". And bear in mind, Beyer is very much on the conceptual side of the conceptual versus math spectrum as a handicapper.

I think tons of horseplayers would benefit from learning a lot about one or more of the poker variants. Because poker is basically horse racing with a lower takeout and a fixed set of possible outcomes. Which means you can really appreciate, if you play long enough and you carefully review your sessions, exactly how immutable the laws of mathematics are when it comes to gambling.

Playing show parlays, even through a rebate shop, is basically like voluntarily choosing a poker table with a rake that is 3 times what the other tables offering the same stakes charge. And it turns out that a typical rake in a poker game might work out to 2 big bets per hour, and a really skilled player might have a winrate over that rake of 0.75 big bets per hour, which means tripling the rake would turn her into a 3.25 big bets per hour loser.

The math works the same way in horse racing. It doesn't matter how much success you are having in the short term (short term variance), the long term says you are playing a bet (the show parlay) where a tremendous amount of money is taken out of the pool just in breakage, plus whatever takeout you pay to the rebate shop. And that amount is compounded, because that is what happens when you bet any parlay.

If your skill really inheres in picking horses to finish in the money, a much better play is to play trifectas where you can isolate contenders to finish in the money. You won't be able to parlay them, but especially if you look for spots where a particular horse is a sure thing either to run in or run out, you can hit them for big payouts when you are right.

The thing is, you are going to get more bad beats and more variance in that play. But that doesn't matter-- mathematically, you are paying 1/3 as much in breakage and dramatically less takeout than with a show parlay. You want it to be a safer bet, but nothing's safe in gambling, and the math rules us all.

[EMD4ME]

Sure thing show horses have habit of running out of the money at the most inopportune times. Plus the more you bet them, the more of them seem to be running. It is amazing how after cashing a couple of bets on them, how many more horses look like sure things. I doubt if many bettors can over come those optical illusions.

You make a lot of sense Robert. What I will add is that I am not taking a shot. I don't sit here and think a horse will plop up for 3rd. I don't know if you played Sunday's Belmont card but it was obvious that an OUTSIDE/UP CLOSE BIAS was in play. I couldn't parlay a single race until races 6789.

Race 6 the 7 to place. Thought his late pace was awesome for the level, was in top form and would have an outside run. I thought he would win. Bet to place, he paid $4.50. A tremendous return for a chalk in a parlay.

Race 7: The 9 to place. He was a SOLID A to WIN, hands down. Hated the 8 who had a MAJOR portion of the place pool. 8 ran out, 9 paid a whopping $3.20 to place. 9 had the outside post, feeble competition and won drawing away in awesome fashion.

Race 8: The outside post was as near to a mortal lock to place (barring a break down). He paid $2.30 to place.

Let me ask people this....If you made $1,000 in a day and I said I'll add 15% to it if a 95% opportunity arises, would you take it? I would as I know long term I am a winner.....He won by 7 in a hand ride.

Race 9: LOOOOOOOVED the 6. He had secret speed, was not on the rail. I knew the 11 was a fake contender. Bet to show. He had the usual brutal ride from JV (Sent but was scared as Irad cleared, he took up, checked, came around), won the pace battle and was a clear 2nd as the rest of the field was overmatched. Bet to show, never in doubt. Got $4.00 to close the parlay.

$4.50, $3.20, $2.30 and $4.00. 2 bucks gets you $16.56

That's the same as betting a 7/1 shot. If I am right ONCE out of 7, I break even plus I get rebates along the way. Exploding rebates as I am betting 4 times for 1 wager.

I might sound like a **** right now but if one can't do the work to properly select 2, 3 or 4 races where a horse is near mortal lock to run 2nd or 3rd, they're not doing enough work to be in this game.

I used to bet $200-$300 on each horse to win back in the 1990's. What would have been my results?

Lost as jock fell asleep on the far turn and moved to late, made up 6 in last 3/16's to lose by a dimishing half length.

Win-Get paid $4.50

Win-Get paid $3.00

Lose as horse 2nd best to obvious chalk.

Bet $800, get a return of $750. Lose $50. Make a rebate of $800 X 2, 3 or 4%.

And I'm the crazy one for being more conservative with live horses who stand out and getting 7/1 for no real massive opinion?

Not directed at you. Just shocked that there aren't hundreds of thousands of players who don't do this already.

I will say this....if I didn't do the work that I do, no way I could play a parlay.

You need to have every CONTROLLABLE piece of information in your lap to make the play. Yes, you can't control a jock falling off. Yes, you can't control a uniquely and amazingly chaotic race that happens once in a blue moon. But you can control when you play (make sure their no bias-bet later races), you can control which races you play, you can control simply passing because their is a whole in the horse's chances).

It is my humble opinion that many bridge jumpers are too eager to make the wager, spit in the face of a horse's weakness and make the wager anyway....

They deserve to lose tens or hundreds of thousands.

[v j stauffer]

EMD, math is tremendously important. So is variance. And so is discipline (Robert's point).

To pivot off of EMD's strategies for a moment, I think Andy Beyer mentioned years ago that one of his formative horse racing books was "The Education of a Poker Player". And bear in mind, Beyer is very much on the conceptual side of the conceptual versus math spectrum as a handicapper.

I think tons of horseplayers would benefit from learning a lot about one or more of the poker variants. Because poker is basically horse racing with a lower takeout and a fixed set of possible outcomes. Which means you can really appreciate, if you play long enough and you carefully review your sessions, exactly how immutable the laws of mathematics are when it comes to gambling.

Playing show parlays, even through a rebate shop, is basically like voluntarily choosing a poker table with a rake that is 3 times what the other tables offering the same stakes charge. And it turns out that a typical rake in a poker game might work out to 2 big bets per hour, and a really skilled player might have a winrate over that rake of 0.75 big bets per hour, which means tripling the rake would turn her into a 3.25 big bets per hour loser.

The math works the same way in horse racing. It doesn't matter how much success you are having in the short term (short term variance), the long term says you are playing a bet (the show parlay) where a tremendous amount of money is taken out of the pool just in breakage, plus whatever takeout you pay to the rebate shop. And that amount is compounded, because that is what happens when you bet any parlay.

If your skill really inheres in picking horses to finish in the money, a much better play is to play trifectas where you can isolate contenders to finish in the money. You won't be able to parlay them, but especially if you look for spots where a particular horse is a sure thing either to run in or run out, you can hit them for big payouts when you are right.

The thing is, you are going to get more bad beats and more variance in that play. But that doesn't matter-- mathematically, you are paying 1/3 as much in breakage and dramatically less takeout than with a show parlay. You want it to be a safer bet, but nothing's safe in gambling, and the math rules us all.

What he said :ThmbUp:

[EMD4ME]

[QUOTE=v j stauffer]

I think you're right. I am the f**king moron for wasting my time talking to you.

I feel the same way about you. Nothing personal. Your calls were nice but my limited interactions with you have been extremely disappointing.

What you're trying to do, by using handicapping opinion, has NEVER worked and will never work.

What do you mean by "Using handicapping opinion"? I unlike you, will ask what you mean by that before I assume you meant one thing and call you names in an unwarranted fashion.

Thanks for playing though. The rest of us appreciate the free money.

Free money? I play in real pools with serious dough. Not some derby wars contest where your SKIN is not in the game....[/B]
[B]

[Stillriledup]

EMD, math is tremendously important. So is variance. And so is discipline (Robert's point).

To pivot off of EMD's strategies for a moment, I think Andy Beyer mentioned years ago that one of his formative horse racing books was "The Education of a Poker Player". And bear in mind, Beyer is very much on the conceptual side of the conceptual versus math spectrum as a handicapper.

I think tons of horseplayers would benefit from learning a lot about one or more of the poker variants. Because poker is basically horse racing with a lower takeout and a fixed set of possible outcomes. Which means you can really appreciate, if you play long enough and you carefully review your sessions, exactly how immutable the laws of mathematics are when it comes to gambling.

Playing show parlays, even through a rebate shop, is basically like voluntarily choosing a poker table with a rake that is 3 times what the other tables offering the same stakes charge. And it turns out that a typical rake in a poker game might work out to 2 big bets per hour, and a really skilled player might have a winrate over that rake of 0.75 big bets per hour, which means tripling the rake would turn her into a 3.25 big bets per hour loser.

The math works the same way in horse racing. It doesn't matter how much success you are having in the short term (short term variance), the long term says you are playing a bet (the show parlay) where a tremendous amount of money is taken out of the pool just in breakage, plus whatever takeout you pay to the rebate shop. And that amount is compounded, because that is what happens when you bet any parlay.

If your skill really inheres in picking horses to finish in the money, a much better play is to play trifectas where you can isolate contenders to finish in the money. You won't be able to parlay them, but especially if you look for spots where a particular horse is a sure thing either to run in or run out, you can hit them for big payouts when you are right.

The thing is, you are going to get more bad beats and more variance in that play. But that doesn't matter-- mathematically, you are paying 1/3 as much in breakage and dramatically less takeout than with a show parlay. You want it to be a safer bet, but nothing's safe in gambling, and the math rules us all.

But doesn't that breakage and variance stuff only matter if you're making a minus EV wager?

[ebcorde]

Exactly, when you do the work that I do and your ultra conservative, they run out 1 out of 50.

But again, I don't expect someone who doesn't watch every race, take notes on every horse, makes his own numbers, tracks his own track trends, trainer trends, follows the board very well, works with a gut instict very well to actually understand that.

I'm as aggressive as the next guy. I shoot for the major picks with 90% of my bankroll on most days.

Some days, those plays are just not the way to go and my stomach tells me that. Nothing wrong with taking a conservative route to profit.

Sep 4th 2015, took a conservative route at the SPA. I made the following wager:

$270 bucks Race 1 Show 4 Paid $2.90 =$391.50
Race 3 Place 1 Paid $3.50 =$685.12
Race 4 Show 4 Paid $3.10=$1,061.93
Race 7 Show 11 Paid $2.70=$1,433.60

The horses were the following:

The 11 in Race 7 was a rock solid second time starter who had some trouble but overcame it to run 2nd in his 1st start. He ran 5 or so lengths clear of the 3rd horse. Liked him to win, bet him to show to be conservative in this parlay, he ran a VERY clear 2nd best.

Race 4 featured the return of Zivo, who I did not like. Saratoga Snacks and the winner were the only 2 speeds, knew the odds of them killing eachother were remote. Bet safe, Saratoga Snacks to show, lost a nose on the wire. Never in doubt of blowing the place. Bet too conservatively but hit the show to collect a 55% return.

Race 3: Ack Naughty...This is the race many PA posters went nuts over JV's ride on Capriana. I thought the 4 would lead, Capriana would not run well from the pocket, that Ack Naughty would, even with a bad ride run 2nd. He did. $3.50 to place as Capriana ran out of the place spot.

Race 1: Take Cover: Bet to show in a 7 horse field just looking to compound the expected future winnings in races 3,4 and 7. He got an absolutely brutal trip and still got 3rd. Paid $2.90.

Some days, there won't be a single horse to parlay, so no parlays are made.

Some days, there are 7 or 8 horses to parlay in the place and show pools. In those cases I select 6 races. Round Robin them...Meaning if 5/6 hit, I collect. If all 6 win, I collect on 6 parlays. I don't mind if they pay $2.40, as long as I move on. Anything above $3.00 is actually a good return in a 4 5 or 6 race parlay.

But you can't force it. If there's only 2 races to play, 2 races it is.

Nothing wrong with playing over days as well.

You have to think this way when making these bets. If my life was on the line and I had to make a winning wager, which race will I select and why? Does it meet the criteria? If not, pass. If there's any doubt pass.

If I'm wrong and bust 4 out 5 times, I STILL COME OUT AHEAD.



Im surprised that it works 4 straight races. I shoot for 3 races and I start with $270 I'd feel like a dope if i lose.

hold it, I re-ran that program Sar 4th. those were some ballsy bets, R7 had 7 FTS

[EMD4ME]

EMD, math is tremendously important. So is variance. And so is discipline (Robert's point).

To pivot off of EMD's strategies for a moment, I think Andy Beyer mentioned years ago that one of his formative horse racing books was "The Education of a Poker Player". And bear in mind, Beyer is very much on the conceptual side of the conceptual versus math spectrum as a handicapper.

I think tons of horseplayers would benefit from learning a lot about one or more of the poker variants. Because poker is basically horse racing with a lower takeout and a fixed set of possible outcomes. Which means you can really appreciate, if you play long enough and you carefully review your sessions, exactly how immutable the laws of mathematics are when it comes to gambling.

Playing show parlays, even through a rebate shop, is basically like voluntarily choosing a poker table with a rake that is 3 times what the other tables offering the same stakes charge. And it turns out that a typical rake in a poker game might work out to 2 big bets per hour, and a really skilled player might have a winrate over that rake of 0.75 big bets per hour, which means tripling the rake would turn her into a 3.25 big bets per hour loser.

The math works the same way in horse racing. It doesn't matter how much success you are having in the short term (short term variance), the long term says you are playing a bet (the show parlay) where a tremendous amount of money is taken out of the pool just in breakage, plus whatever takeout you pay to the rebate shop. And that amount is compounded, because that is what happens when you bet any parlay.

If your skill really inheres in picking horses to finish in the money, a much better play is to play trifectas where you can isolate contenders to finish in the money. You won't be able to parlay them, but especially if you look for spots where a particular horse is a sure thing either to run in or run out, you can hit them for big payouts when you are right.

The thing is, you are going to get more bad beats and more variance in that play. But that doesn't matter-- mathematically, you are paying 1/3 as much in breakage and dramatically less takeout than with a show parlay. You want it to be a safer bet, but nothing's safe in gambling, and the math rules us all.


You make a ton of sense. However, that is already factored in to why, what I suggest, to me is a formidable play.

I would rather pay the excess breakage and multiple VIGS, here's why.

These are horses that I like, really like AND i have no second opinion along with them to create the exacta or trifecta or superfecta wager....

Why play exactas when I have no 2nd opinion to leverage the orginal opinion?

I don't want to simply play them in DD's, P3's, P4's, P5's and P6's as maybe I don't like the sequence. Maybe I am playing the parlay IN ADDITION to the DD, P3, P4, P5, P6 (Depends on the card). I also may be playing SOME, not all of these horses to win.

Or maybe the horses I like are not in consecutive races.

If it is a bomb that I like, I will not be playing the horse in a parlay. I am looking for a super high hit %'s. I like many bombs. They are bet to win and insured 2nd in exactas and 3rd in tris. I might play a smaller (in terms of dollars) parlay with that bomb as a gravy bet.

I am not going to play a horse 2nd or 3rd in tri's or even 1st in tri's if he is 1/1 and I have no other opinion in that specific race.

I'd rather take the "almost guaranteed" 40% return (1/1 to place paying $2.80 for example) and instead of forcefully leveraging that 1/1 with 2 horses 2nd in exacta, I'd rather take that 40% profit and parlay it to the next "almost guaranteed sure thing" despite the 2nd VIG to pay and the excess breakage.

There's so many unique situations, I can't cover them all in one post.

I am a math guy. Been one since I was 4. I understand your point.

I've also spent countless dollars liking a nice 5/2 shot but wanting a better price, so I bet the horse on top in EX's, TRI's, SUP's (in an attempt to increase the return) and getting zero in return as a horse I didn't use got 2nd/3rd/4th.

If I have 2 opinions, I pound away in Exactas and Tri's. If I don't, why press Exacta's and Tri's?

If I have a high enough hit rate to overcome breakage and the vig AND I'm avoiding losing my money when my key horse runs but my exacta horses don't, why wouldn't I take this approach?

If you had pocket Aces for 4 straight hands, while you know your opponent has a 26 off suit, wouldn't you parlay your 4 hands together to place (at least or to win)?

It's not a direct analogy but you get my point.....If you finish 2nd in a 2 person hand, you do "place" if it's horseracing rules....

The bad beat (if you bet to win), where your horse runs 2nd in a crazy scenario is almost a reward (if you parleyed conservatively to place) as you get psychological relief for running 2nd.

It's almost a guaranteed parlay. Breakage hurts but it doesn't matter if you're making 7/1 on 4 almost easy plays.

I am 90% a score type of player but at times, when the streaks run dry or I have some bad luck, I make myself make these bets. I get mad at myself when I don't make these bets on $5,000 winning days as the $5,000 could have been $10,000.

I am not here to convince anyone of anything. In fact I hope NONE of you listen to anything I say.

I was simply making a point that there is a market for all types of horseplayers. We need to advertise to all of them.

[Tall One]

1. One big problem that is never going to be solved is the average person doesn't care enough to learn how to handicap.



Bingo. Long rant coming:

I've got one, ONE friend my age, not in the industry, who can read a Form, and knows his way around the track. We'll keep the other updated on stable alerts, as well as horses on replays we'll see as plays next out and the like.

Another friend, who has since moved to Florida, is the exact opposite. He relies on everybody else for his picks. If I dont get a text from him asking "If we got any live action this weekend" then I'm to assume something is wrong. Worst part? He's an hour north of GP and freaking Pompano, and hasn't even been to either track once in two years. I HAD TO TELL HIM WHAT PUBLIX SOLD THE FORM IN WEST PALM BEACH AND I'M IN GD LEXINGTON. Oh, it's two miles from his work, and he still hasn't bought one.. :lol:

Welp, Last Friday, I spent an enjoyable evening handicapping Saturday's Belmont card, and settled on two plays I considered legit (Wild About Harry in the 7th, and a tri in the Sands Point which both did ok). I also decided to tout my friend here on the plays, and who I knew would appreciate it more if it worked out, and he did. He was grateful for the info, and the pint of Makers proved it.. :ThmbUp:

Later on that night, after the UK win over S. Carolina, I get a phone call from meathead in FLA literally berating me for not giving him the plays. My only response, and this is a cat I've known for over twenty years "You put in some time learning about this game, and get back too me. Next time, YOU spend 2.5 hours handicapping the card, and let ME know who to bet. I'll be waiting." But, being the guy I am, next day I gave him my ill-fated w/p and tri wheel bet in the Woodbine Mile, and catch hell again..I mean, you cant win with this freaking guy...! :D

Please keep in mind I've taught him previously how to read both the Form and Equibase pp's, explained what I hoped would be easy things for him to digest: work outs, turn times, trainer/jock combos, running lines, how to read the result chart, and build from there. Baby steps if you will...like I'm freaking Andy Beyer over here.. :D

Apologies for the rant, just shows that the "instant gratitude" & "microwave society" is very much alive and well in our racetrack world, and probably not going anywhere. :ThmbDown:

/fin

[EMD4ME]

Im surprised that it works 4 straight races. I shoot for 3 races and I start with $270 I'd feel like a dope if i lose.

hold it, I re-ran that program Sar 4th. those were some ballsy bets, R7 had 7 FTS

Yes but I specialize in 2 year olds and FTS. I can't say why or how or who but I do. I LOVE THOSE RACES.

The winner was scary as was the Pletcher horse who jumped 10 feet high in the paddock for that race.

That is why I bet to show. Was kicking myself when he ran a super clear 2nd but I've learned....DONT BE GREEDY with parlays. I'm happy with 60% vs. going for 100% and getting ZERO % when a jock screws up/I screw up etc.

[EMD4ME]

EMD, math is tremendously important. So is variance. And so is discipline (Robert's point).

To pivot off of EMD's strategies for a moment, I think Andy Beyer mentioned years ago that one of his formative horse racing books was "The Education of a Poker Player". And bear in mind, Beyer is very much on the conceptual side of the conceptual versus math spectrum as a handicapper.

I think tons of horseplayers would benefit from learning a lot about one or more of the poker variants. Because poker is basically horse racing with a lower takeout and a fixed set of possible outcomes. Which means you can really appreciate, if you play long enough and you carefully review your sessions, exactly how immutable the laws of mathematics are when it comes to gambling.

Playing show parlays, even through a rebate shop, is basically like voluntarily choosing a poker table with a rake that is 3 times what the other tables offering the same stakes charge. And it turns out that a typical rake in a poker game might work out to 2 big bets per hour, and a really skilled player might have a winrate over that rake of 0.75 big bets per hour, which means tripling the rake would turn her into a 3.25 big bets per hour loser.

The math works the same way in horse racing. It doesn't matter how much success you are having in the short term (short term variance), the long term says you are playing a bet (the show parlay) where a tremendous amount of money is taken out of the pool just in breakage, plus whatever takeout you pay to the rebate shop. And that amount is compounded, because that is what happens when you bet any parlay.

If your skill really inheres in picking horses to finish in the money, a much better play is to play trifectas where you can isolate contenders to finish in the money. You won't be able to parlay them, but especially if you look for spots where a particular horse is a sure thing either to run in or run out, you can hit them for big payouts when you are right.

The thing is, you are going to get more bad beats and more variance in that play. But that doesn't matter-- mathematically, you are paying 1/3 as much in breakage and dramatically less takeout than with a show parlay. You want it to be a safer bet, but nothing's safe in gambling, and the math rules us all.

Sorry, 2 more thoughts.

1) I am not saying that I bet to place and show. I am saying one should bet to place and show. When you parlay winning bets (NOT LOSING BETS) you can overcome the breakage and multiple VIGS.

People that know me, know that I talk about how AWESOME the picks are as you are paying 1 vig. Not being contradictory...Hear me out.

If you are taking a super high ratio of winning, it doesn't matter if they pay to quarters instead of dimes (dimes at NYRA) and it doesn't matter if you are working in a 20% vig environment vs. 17%. You still come out way ahead IF you are making pics and parlaying pics that are tremendously safe and successful.

Yes, you lose money when a horse pays $2.69 and you get $2.60. Yes, you would lose money in your pocket if the vig was 20% vs. 17% but if you're up thousands for the year, does it matter?

The other side is will you do better playing these chalky types in exotics?

If yes, ignore the parlays. If no, parlays are the way to go.

2) Yes, I am a huge proponent of the exotic scores. However, I will not chase a Pick 5 when the sequence is not desireable. That's when a play like this is safe and profitable. Too many people play a pick 5 with 1 opinion or 2. Not a way to win unless the other 3/4 races are undecipherable and you can buy it AND get horses that pay.

[dilanesp]

These are horses that I like, really like AND i have no second opinion along with them to create the exacta or trifecta or superfecta wager....

Suppose there was a football team you really, really, really liked to cover a point spread. However, the only sports book available to you, instead of offering the traditional 11 to 10, required you to put up 13 to 10 and pay 3 times as much vigorish (takeout)?

Now, this is the bet you really, really like. It's what you really, really want to bet. It really, really reflects your opinion.

And yet, you should not bet it. Do you see why?

What you are really arguing is "the racetracks do not offer me a way to pick horses to finish in the money in consecutive races with a reasonable takeout, therefore I will go ahead and make a bet with an unreasonable takeout instead". But that doesn't make sense. Just because you really like a play doesn't mean the racetrack offers it to you with a positive expected value.

Why play exactas when I have no 2nd opinion to leverage the orginal opinion?

If you have no more detailed an opinion than "this horse will finish in the money", it may be correct to pass the race, for the reasons stated above.

But I suspect that's not what is going on.

Is it possible that either (1) you don't want to do the work to separate the contenders from the noncontenders so that you can reflect your opinion accurately in a trifecta ticket, or (2) you are too afraid of variance-- that you will run bad and some unforeseen horse will hit the board and you won't get paid?

Because those are both bad reasons to refuse a bet with lower takeout in favor of a bet with higher takeout, UNLESS:

You are just a recreational player who goes to the races occasionally and just wants to cash a ticket.

But if you are trying to win in the long term, then cashing a ticket every time shouldn't be important to you. You need to place your bets on wagers that have lower takeouts, even if it means you sometimes take a bad beat. Variance is part of gambling. You can't eliminate it. You must embrace it.

Or maybe the horses I like are not in consecutive races.

Again, though, for a win bettor, a parlay doesn't become any "better" a bet just because a pick 4 isn't offered on the 4 races the bettor wants to parlay. It's still a bet with a 15 percent takeout taken four times, i.e., an almost unwinnable wager long term.

I mean, your argument really does boil down to "the racetrack doesn't offer me a bet with a reasonable takeout, but since I really wan't a bet and can't stand the thought of not betting or taking one of the reasonable options offered to me, I'm going to insist on making a bet with a gigantic takeout that is extremely difficult to make a profit on long term". That's just a bad argument, however restated.

I'd rather take the "almost guaranteed" 40% return (1/1 to place paying $2.80 for example) and instead of forcefully leveraging that 1/1 with 2 horses 2nd in exacta, I'd rather take that 40% profit and parlay it to the next "almost guaranteed sure thing" despite the 2nd VIG to pay and the excess breakage.

Except it's not guaranteed. Some percentage of them run out. Now, if you are a good enough handicapper, perhaps you can isolate only those $2.80 horses who will not run out. Even that is extremely hard to do.

But then by parlaying them, you have to be right EVEN MORE often than even than, because you are compounding the effect of the takeout.

If I have 2 opinions, I pound away in Exactas and Tri's. If I don't, why press Exacta's and Tri's?

Because sometimes, all it takes to come up with a profitable exacta or trifecta play is a main opinion ("this horse will win" or "this horse will hit the board" or "this favorite will run out" or even "this horse should outrun her odds") combined with relatively basic elimination of horses who have little or no chance. And the racetrack offers you a very generous deal on takeout, which means that it is much, much easier to make a +EV bet in an exacta or tri than it is on a show parlay.

Now many people still make -EV bets. But that's because all horse race handicapping is tough. You are making it tougher on yourself with your strategy though.

If you had pocket Aces for 4 straight hands, while you know your opponent has a 26 off suit, wouldn't you parlay your 4 hands together to place (at least or to win)?

If the rake were zero, yes.

If the rake were so high as to exceed the equity advantage of the aces over the 62 offsuit, no.

[LottaKash]

Whatever happened to fixing our "dying game" ?.... :D

Enjoying the morphing of the thread, all the same... :)

[EMD4ME]

Dilanesp,

Sincerely appreciate your thoughts. I will not win you over. I don't hope to win anyone over.

All I can again say is this:

10 races on the card.

Like a horse in races 1 4 7 10.

Not enough to play a thorough PICK 5, PICK 6, PICK 4's, PICK 3's or even DD's.

I can play all horses to win and IF i hit 4,3,2 or 1 at a nice price, I can make a profit.

If they ran in consecutive races, I better be right in the DD's, PICK 3's and PICK 4's that I play to properly leverage the opinions and profit (in terms of hooking up the right covers, weighing my tickets correctly etc.) This is 90% of my play, to be forthright.

For stable play.......and to keep the bankroll moving....

Why not pick 4 horses who are near sinches (to place or show, not win) BUT not the sinches the public picks (1/5, 3/5). I'm talking 7/2, 4/1, 6/1 shots that keep the bankroll moving forward in a healthy way with a limited risk play?


I wager $3000-$10,000 on one day. A $200 or even $500 parlay isn't a monster play (unit wise). I can't tell you how many times I expect my locks to be 1/1 and they go off at 5/2. I can't tell you how many times I bet to show on an 8/1 shot, who I thought would be 5/1.

I don't care if I'm paying extra for the security of winning. It's still an extremely profitable play IF you are succesful in choosing which races to parlay. You ARE OVERCOMING immensely the disadvantages of the extra vig, breakage IF you are parlaying.

I would NEVER AND I MEAN EVER, play a singular horse to show or place at any odds under 20/1.

I am taking an approach, for 20 years mind you, that I wish I took for all wagering activities.

I must admit, I LOVE the pick 5. I adore the PICK 6, I am in lust with the pick 4. Hence, 90% of my play going there.

The parlay is not exciting to me (the boring chalky almost guaranteed parlay).

However, it pays. Again, what's wrong with being 75% to cash a 4 race parlay that pays you 4/1? 5/1? 7/1?

Find me a horse selector that picks 75% on 4/1 shots and I'll marry them. :lol:

Just think about my last sentences, that's the MAIN point.

[thespaah]

You should definitely make more drunken posts where you past post about your rare wins, or talk about how whatever jockey stiffed the horse and how they're all out to get you, the only person single-handedly supporting NY racing. Those posts are doing a great job promoting this dying game.

I have a feeling your betting career will die before this game does.
Dude? Seriously?
Take a dip in the pool.

[MJC922]

Whatever happened to fixing our "dying game" ?.... :D

Enjoying the morphing of the thread, all the same... :)

It's dead, they're gone to explaining why it shouldn't be. :)

[EMD4ME]

Whatever happened to fixing our "dying game" ?.... :D

Enjoying the morphing of the thread, all the same... :)

You are 100% correct.

You can thank VIC.

I defended myself. Now I will stop and get back on track.

My apologies.

[thespaah]

Not enough people win long term for one thing. Not enough people walk out with what they came in with on the day. The game was in its heyday when there was WPS and maybe the DD. These days the best bet in the game from a takeout standpoint is the pick6 with a carryover. We've come a long way from Pittsburg Phil's day where you could make a million laying against horses. WPS has completely fallen out of favor, people can't lay against, they can't play horse against horse, very few high-percentage options where the odds are relatively stable. It's no wonder so many people go broke chasing gimmicks.
Yet the WPS pool is on every race at virtually every track the largest single pool of all individual races pools.
Point number two...Japan and Hong Kong daily handles dwarf those in the US. And those racing associations have just as many if not more so called 'gimmick bets'.....
In another thread I posted the on track handle figs for Parx on a Saturday where the track gave close to One million dollars in purses. The combined total handle was $745k....On track handle was....wait for it.....$67,000..With the largest percentage going on WPS bets.

[LottaKash]

You are 100% correct.

You can thank VIC.

I defended myself. Now I will stop and get back on track.

My apologies.

No need to apologize, to me at least, I like your posts and Vic's, as well as the many others...

I see it simply as, "our very own reality show".... Full of spontaneity and serendipitous thoughts...b :jump:

Sometimes, some very cool talking points get lost in the shuffle, while trying to keep in the spirit of a thread...But heck, if we were live at the races, there are no threads, so since we are not there "live", so I just treat each thread as if we were ... :cool:
--------------------

But, back on topic, imo racing is on it's hands and knees, and the people who largely have the power to fix it, can't and won't anyway...It will just continue to contract and maybe just slowly fade away in good time..

Sometimes I wonder what if the Casinos and the ADW's hadn't made the scene, where this game of ours would be today..?

[Tall One]

Draft Kings spent $16.3 million on ads last week. Fan Duel spent $10.8 million during the same time period. No way this doesn't go the way of online poker in the near future.

People have to be hemorrhaging money on those sites for them to have that kind of weekly ad budget.

[v j stauffer]

Yes they can, they have 60 hour classes that accredit you as an expert in watching inquiries. :lol: :lol: :lol:

Sorry, I just couldn't resist that. Especially after Vic kept insisting that Joel Rosario was at fault for that erroneous DQ back at Belmont in July when Irad Ortiz was undressed to his ankles and tried to cover it up with his dirty, illegal, foul causing and dangerous race riding.

Who knows, maybe he has it out for SRU and I for pointing out how to the naked eye, that race looked like the winner should have been DQ'd but to the trained eye, it was the supposed victim who caused the entire chain reaction.

Actually it was the NYRA stewards who were insisting. They made their decision. I agreed with them because IMO they were 100% correct with their analysis of the film.

So at the end of the day it was the opinion of 4 trained unbiased stewards vs what you thought.

I suppose there's a chance you were right and all of us wrong. But it seems like a small chance.

[Stillriledup]

Actually it was the NYRA stewards who were insisting. They made their decision. I agreed with them because IMO they were 100% correct with their analysis of the film.

So at the end of the day it was the opinion of 4 trained unbiased stewards vs what you thought.

I suppose there's a chance you were right and all of us wrong. But it seems like a small chance.

The film? You mean they had a direct head on shot that we all weren't privy to? If they didnt, they made their decision at a highly distorted angle that skews perception, of course, you know this and completely ignore it as a valid point.

There's nothing that's even close to a direct head on, the angles they were watching were biased towards the inside runner much how photo finishes are biased to one type (inside or outside) runner if the camera isn't on the wire.

Not only is the 'head on' Belmont turf camera very far from the action, but it's also far from the inner rail, you know how much win photos are distorted when the camera is a few feet from the wire, so I'm just not seeing why this is something that you are ignoring as a valid argument?

[EMD4ME]

Actually it was the NYRA stewards who were insisting. They made their decision. I agreed with them because IMO they were 100% correct with their analysis of the film.

So at the end of the day it was the opinion of 4 trained unbiased stewards vs what you thought.

I suppose there's a chance you were right and all of us wrong. But it seems like a small chance.

Yes, the same NYRA stewards who DQ'D the WRONG horse at the SPA...

https://www.nyra.com/saratoga/videos/race-replay/STD/2015/20150905/6/pan/

Race Decisions - September 5, 2015

Race 6

Stewards inquiry and jockeys objection from Angel Arroyo the rider of # 8 Furyofthenorsemen against the # 1 Tale of Life ( Irad Ortiz Jr.).Approaching the 1/6th pole the # 1 while running up on the # 6 Designed for War (Javier Castellano) in tight quarters shifts out sharply forcing the # 1 into the # 8 who makes contact with the # 9 Enjoy the Show (John Velazquez). After reviewing the video and speaking to all the riders involved the # 1 is disqualified from first and placed fourth behind the #8. The new order of finish is 6-3-8-1.

§ 4035.2. Foul riding penalized.

(a) When clear, a horse may be taken to any part of the course provided that crossing or weaving in front of contenders may constitute interference or intimidation for which the offender may be disciplined.



(b) A horse crossing another may be disqualified, if in the judgment of the stewards, it interferes with, impedes or intimidates another horse, or the foul altered the finish of the race, regardless of whether the foul was accidental, willful, or the result of careless riding. The stewards may also take into consideration mitigating factors, such as whether the impeded horse was partly at fault or the crossing was wholly caused by the fault of some other horse or jockey.


The same 3 blind mice who in writing stated that the 6 shifted out sharply, forcing the 1 onto the 8 AND THEN TOOK THE VICTIM DOWN instead of the guilty party????

Are you talking about these 3 incompetent blind mice VIC?

[EMD4ME]

The film? You mean they had a direct head on shot that we all weren't privy to? If they didnt, they made their decision at a highly distorted angle that skews perception, of course, you know this and completely ignore it as a valid point.

There's nothing that's even close to a direct head on, the angles they were watching were biased towards the inside runner much how photo finishes are biased to one type (inside or outside) runner if the camera isn't on the wire.

Not only is the 'head on' Belmont turf camera very far from the action, but it's also far from the inner rail, you know how much win photos are distorted when the camera is a few feet from the wire, so I'm just not seeing why this is something that you are ignoring as a valid argument?

No SRU, you see, Stewards are provided with Superman/Superwomen glasses. They see things that we the unwashed masses of horseplayer flesh are 1) too obtuse 2) too degenerate 3) too blinded to see.

They, despite the inaccurate angle, have gone through 60 entire hours (I am sure, with no breaks SRU) and are learning from dedicated souls who would die for this game, which gives them insight that you, I and all the unwashed masses have no clue about.

These stewards break the IQ scale. Their intelligence and superhuman insight is well beyond what we can comprehend. How dare you question their ability to properly utilize the crooked angle?

You should accept their decisions as holier than though, impossible to incorrect and full of integrity. For if you question them, you are just reinforcing how obtuse you really are.

:rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

[Tall One]

Yes, the same NYRA stewards who DQ'D the WRONG horse at the SPA...

https://www.nyra.com/saratoga/videos/race-replay/STD/2015/20150905/6/pan/

Race Decisions - September 5, 2015

Race 6

Stewards inquiry and jockeys objection from Angel Arroyo the rider of # 8 Furyofthenorsemen against the # 1 Tale of Life ( Irad Ortiz Jr.).Approaching the 1/6th pole the # 1 while running up on the # 6 Designed for War (Javier Castellano) in tight quarters shifts out sharply forcing the # 1 into the # 8 who makes contact with the # 9 Enjoy the Show (John Velazquez). After reviewing the video and speaking to all the riders involved the # 1 is disqualified from first and placed fourth behind the #8. The new order of finish is 6-3-8-1.

§ 4035.2. Foul riding penalized.

(a) When clear, a horse may be taken to any part of the course provided that crossing or weaving in front of contenders may constitute interference or intimidation for which the offender may be disciplined.



(b) A horse crossing another may be disqualified, if in the judgment of the stewards, it interferes with, impedes or intimidates another horse, or the foul altered the finish of the race, regardless of whether the foul was accidental, willful, or the result of careless riding. The stewards may also take into consideration mitigating factors, such as whether the impeded horse was partly at fault or the crossing was wholly caused by the fault of some other horse or jockey.


The same 3 blind mice who in writing stated that the 6 shifted out sharply, forcing the 1 onto the 8 AND THEN TOOK THE VICTIM DOWN instead of the guilty party????

Are you talking about these 3 incompetent blind mice VIC?


This is the solution that will save and invite people to save our industry? Which part of the cheating race officials, stewards, Iherd, Velazquez, blargh, blargh, blargh do we leave out? :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

[EMD4ME]

This is the solution that will save and invite people to save our industry? Which part of the cheating race officials, stewards, Iherd, Velazquez, blargh, blargh, blargh do we leave out? :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

So, you are suggesting that we should fire all incompetent stewards to start?

I LOVE that idea. Great.

Thank you :)

[dilanesp]

Draft Kings spent $16.3 million on ads last week. Fan Duel spent $10.8 million during the same time period. No way this doesn't go the way of online poker in the near future.

Legally, it definitely won't. Fantasy sports got a carve out in UIGEA. As long as they don't sell bets to anyone in a state that bans this sort of gambling, they are fine. And they have careful legal departments.

[cutchemist42]

Here is an article you should read about what is really going on in Daily Fantasy Sports.

You Aren't Good Enough to Win Money Playing Daily Fantasy Football
Is that a problem for DraftKings and FanDuel?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-10/you-aren-t-good-enough-to-win-money-playing-daily-fantasy-football


It's a pretty interesting read. Looks like it's dominated by Whales.

Read a similar article as well. I dont think anything wil be as filled with dumb money as Derby Day or poker back in the 00s.

[Stillriledup]

No SRU, you see, Stewards are provided with Superman/Superwomen glasses. They see things that we the unwashed masses of horseplayer flesh are 1) too obtuse 2) too degenerate 3) too blinded to see.

They, despite the inaccurate angle, have gone through 60 entire hours (I am sure, with no breaks SRU) and are learning from dedicated souls who would die for this game, which gives them insight that you, I and all the unwashed masses have no clue about.

These stewards break the IQ scale. Their intelligence and superhuman insight is well beyond what we can comprehend. How dare you question their ability to properly utilize the crooked angle?

You should accept their decisions as holier than though, impossible to incorrect and full of integrity. For if you question them, you are just reinforcing how obtuse you really are.

:rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

Unwashed masses!!! :lol:

My new favorite phrase.

[no breathalyzer]

EMD, math is tremendously important. So is variance. And so is discipline (Robert's point).

To pivot off of EMD's strategies for a moment, I think Andy Beyer mentioned years ago that one of his formative horse racing books was "The Education of a Poker Player". And bear in mind, Beyer is very much on the conceptual side of the conceptual versus math spectrum as a handicapper.

I think tons of horseplayers would benefit from learning a lot about one or more of the poker variants. Because poker is basically horse racing with a lower takeout and a fixed set of possible outcomes. Which means you can really appreciate, if you play long enough and you carefully review your sessions, exactly how immutable the laws of mathematics are when it comes to gambling.

Playing show parlays, even through a rebate shop, is basically like voluntarily choosing a poker table with a rake that is 3 times what the other tables offering the same stakes charge. And it turns out that a typical rake in a poker game might work out to 2 big bets per hour, and a really skilled player might have a winrate over that rake of 0.75 big bets per hour, which means tripling the rake would turn her into a 3.25 big bets per hour loser.

The math works the same way in horse racing. It doesn't matter how much success you are having in the short term (short term variance), the long term says you are playing a bet (the show parlay) where a tremendous amount of money is taken out of the pool just in breakage, plus whatever takeout you pay to the rebate shop. And that amount is compounded, because that is what happens when you bet any parlay.

If your skill really inheres in picking horses to finish in the money, a much better play is to play trifectas where you can isolate contenders to finish in the money. You won't be able to parlay them, but especially if you look for spots where a particular horse is a sure thing either to run in or run out, you can hit them for big payouts when you are right.

The thing is, you are going to get more bad beats and more variance in that play. But that doesn't matter-- mathematically, you are paying 1/3 as much in breakage and dramatically less takeout than with a show parlay. You want it to be a safer bet, but nothing's safe in gambling, and the math rules us all.

kind of.. its more like playing them double up sit and go's that have a higher rake.. but have less variance ,, so less risk



also thanks for the good read guys :)

[no breathalyzer]

But doesn't that breakage and variance stuff only matter if you're making a minus EV wager?


or get a bad ride :lol::lol::lol::lol:

[v j stauffer]

No SRU, you see, Stewards are provided with Superman/Superwomen glasses. They see things that we the unwashed masses of horseplayer flesh are 1) too obtuse 2) too degenerate 3) too blinded to see.

They, despite the inaccurate angle, have gone through 60 entire hours (I am sure, with no breaks SRU) and are learning from dedicated souls who would die for this game, which gives them insight that you, I and all the unwashed masses have no clue about.

These stewards break the IQ scale. Their intelligence and superhuman insight is well beyond what we can comprehend. How dare you question their ability to properly utilize the crooked angle?

You should accept their decisions as holier than though, impossible to incorrect and full of integrity. For if you question them, you are just reinforcing how obtuse you really are.

:rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

You've watched The Shawshank Redemption recently haven't you?

[PaceAdvantage]

So, the sideshow will never end, will it? The two egos that control VJS and EMD won't allow it to end... :rolleyes:

[v j stauffer]

So, the sideshow will never end, will it? The two egos that control VJS and EMD won't allow it to end... :rolleyes:

I don't think you should call my wife an ego.

[dilanesp]

kind of.. its more like playing them double up sit and go's that have a higher rake.. but have less variance ,, so less risk



also thanks for the good read guys :)

Less variance isn't a good thing unless you are a recreational gambler who just doesn't want to suffer a big loss. If you bet a lot, EV is a lot more important than variance.

[NorCalGreg]

I'll be looking for the "easy plays" method of turning $200 into $1900, EMD.

Easy as pie, was it. Let's do it.

[proximity]

But doesn't that breakage and variance stuff only matter if you're making a minus EV wager?

this.

we should all have enough respect for emd to assume he's focusing on place and show OVERLAYS.

however, i don't like the parlay because he's leaving money on the table by starting out with bets that are too small for his bankroll.

bet size should depend on his projected edge/odds ratio (accounting for pool dilution) and not the result of the last race that he "liked."

since he does bet a lot of exotics, he should be comfortable with this but who am i to say what's right for HIM?

[v j stauffer]

this.

we should all have enough respect for emd to assume he's focusing on place and show OVERLAYS.

however, i don't like the parlay because he's leaving money on the table by starting out with bets that are too small for his bankroll.

bet size should depend on his projected edge/odds ratio (accounting for pool dilution) and not the result of the last race that he "liked."

since he does bet a lot of exotics, he should be comfortable with this but who am i to say what's right for HIM?

Someone with a brain.

[EMD4ME]

this.

we should all have enough respect for emd to assume he's focusing on place and show OVERLAYS.

however, i don't like the parlay because he's leaving money on the table by starting out with bets that are too small for his bankroll.

bet size should depend on his projected edge/odds ratio (accounting for pool dilution) and not the result of the last race that he "liked."

since he does bet a lot of exotics, he should be comfortable with this but who am i to say what's right for HIM?

Since I play a lot of high risk bets, I try to balance them just a tad, with wagers of this nature on the horses that I just can't bet to win at their short prices.

I don't necessarily look for an overlay in the show pool. Hear me out, if you choose. I am looking for pretty much the locks of the day in the place/show pools that won't pay $2.10 or $2.20. I am looking to combine 2,3,4,5 or in some cases 6 races of easy pickings and compound them into 1 4/1-7/1 wager.

If I hit 2 out of 4, I am happy as I wagered $200 x 4=$800 and hit for $2,000.

I can't wager $1000 into a parlay as even at Belmont, that can dilute the pool , so $200 is a comfortable starting point and when the bet does reach $1000 or $1500 I'm o.k. with that as it's only for 1 race.

[EMD4ME]

Unwashed masses!!! :lol:

My new favorite phrase.

Give credit to Tor Ekman, he created it. I just used it.

[EMD4ME]

I'll be looking for the "easy plays" method of turning $200 into $1900, EMD.

Easy as pie, was it. Let's do it.

They will be posted. Not today, as I have a packed schedule, the track was biased all of last weekend and I have no idea if they are on the turf/how the turf course is.

You'll be hearing from me, god willing.

[EMD4ME]

You've watched The Shawshank Redemption recently haven't you?

Loved that movie. I know you're trying to set me up for some sort of point AND ALTHOUGH YOU REFUSE TO REPLY TO ALL MY POSTS, I'll bite...

Yes, I have, why do you ask?

[no breathalyzer]

Less variance isn't a good thing unless you are a recreational gambler who just doesn't want to suffer a big loss. If you bet a lot, EV is a lot more important than variance.

no disagreement here.. some people see it differently tho

[no breathalyzer]

They will be posted. Not today, as I have a packed schedule, the track was biased all of last weekend and I have no idea if they are on the turf/how the turf course is.

You'll be hearing from me, god willing.

serious question.. I'm asking cause i have no notes or film watch the first couple days.. what kind of biased track has there been.. my quick guess would be speed? I respect you're opinion enough until i get a chance to catch up over here.

[proximity]

Since I play a lot of high risk bets, I try to balance them just a tad, with wagers of this nature on the horses that I just can't bet to win at their short prices.

I don't necessarily look for an overlay in the show pool. Hear me out, if you choose. I am looking for pretty much the locks of the day in the place/show pools that won't pay $2.10 or $2.20. I am looking to combine 2,3,4,5 or in some cases 6 races of easy pickings and compound them into 1 4/1-7/1 wager.

If I hit 2 out of 4, I am happy as I wagered $200 x 4=$800 and hit for $2,000.

I can't wager $1000 into a parlay as even at Belmont, that can dilute the pool , so $200 is a comfortable starting point and when the bet does reach $1000 or $1500 I'm o.k. with that as it's only for 1 race.

well at least the final bets of your sequences (the big ones) HAVE to have been overlays or else you wouldn't have been profitable over the last 20 years with the play.

furthermore these final bet horses have to be larger than normal overlays because they not only have to be profitable on their own, but they also have to overcome all the $200 losses on the plays that didn't make it until the end to make the entire strategy a winning one.

maybe I misread but I don't recall you indicating that you look for anything different in the handicapping of these final picks in a sequence so (over such a long period of time) this indicates to me that probably ALL of your plays are overlays and my point was that instead of possibly under-betting plays just because they occur early in a sequence and possibly over-betting plays just because they occur at the end a sequence that you'd do even better than you are by flattening out your bets.

hope this makes sense? :)

[ultracapper]

That movie made the word "obtuse" fashionable.

[NorCalGreg]

this.

we should all have enough respect for emd to assume he's focusing on place and show OVERLAYS.

however, i don't like the parlay because he's leaving money on the table by starting out with bets that are too small for his bankroll.

bet size should depend on his projected edge/odds ratio (accounting for pool dilution) and not the result of the last race that he "liked."

How does this "proximity" guy know all about someone else's bankroll? He always seems to appear to prop you up, EMD. That thing with you and SRU sorta got my goat, but I recover from stuff like that very quickly. It was early this AM when I typed that "easy winner" response.....I know you have stresses in your life with your MOM being hurt, etc. So just shine it on, brother. We'll find our entertainment elsewhere.....there's always SRU :) Man used to take young ladies on a date to the track. He called it dinner and drinks--they called it one beer and a slice. :D -later
-NCG

[EMD4ME]

serious question.. I'm asking cause i have no notes or film watch the first couple days.. what kind of biased track has there been.. my quick guess would be speed? I respect you're opinion enough until i get a chance to catch up over here.

Friday 9/11/15 IMO....my notes were: Rail not the place to be. PRO Outside
3 of 9 races went wire to wire with 2 of the horses off the rail the entire way. (and the 3 speed horses won early in the card-races 1,2 &4)

Track was muddy for races 1&2, good for 3456 and fast for 789. As the track dried out, times got faster, as an FYI. (especially for races 789).

The sole winner that spent most of their race on the rail (race 8), seemed to be slowed down by it (in my opinion).

Sat 9/12/15 Dead Rail in my opinion. ALL OUTSIDE. 1/4 wired and that was my best bet of the day who raced off the rail the entire 13F trip.

Sun-9/13/15 Rail DEAD. SUPER UP CLOSE & OUTSIDE BIAS. 0/9 wired. 4/9 won from 1st over (pressing outside of inside leader) and 5/9 won from up close & from outside trips.

If I'm wrong, don't kill me LOL.

[AndyC]

well at least the final bets of your sequences (the big ones) HAVE to have been overlays or else you wouldn't have been profitable over the last 20 years with the play.

furthermore these final bet horses have to be larger than normal overlays because they not only have to be profitable on their own, but they also have to overcome all the $200 losses on the plays that didn't make it until the end to make the entire strategy a winning one.

maybe I misread but I don't recall you indicating that you look for anything different in the handicapping of these final picks in a sequence so (over such a long period of time) this indicates to me that probably ALL of your plays are overlays and my point was that instead of possibly under-betting plays just because they occur early in a sequence and possibly over-betting plays just because they occur at the end a sequence that you'd do even better than you are by flattening out your bets.

hope this makes sense? :)

It makes sense to me. The entire argument being put forward is that there is some kind of special benefit to parlaying versus flat betting or percentage betting show horses. I don't think there is any mathematical analysis that could support that kind of bankroll management. I can, however, see psychological benefits of such betting. Whether or not those benefits outweigh the detriments of poor bankroll management is a purely personal matter. If it works for EMD4ME then that's great.

[EMD4ME]

That movie made the word "obtuse" fashionable.

Yes :lol: . I now recall his usage of the word obtuse....There were so many wonderful parts of that movie that I couldn't tell which one of many ways Vic was going.

Thanks Ultracapper.

[EMD4ME]

How does this "proximity" guy know all about someone else's bankroll? He always seems to appear to prop you up, EMD. That thing with you and SRU sorta got my goat, but I recover from stuff like that very quickly. It was early this AM when I typed that "easy winner" response.....I know you have stresses in your life with your MOM being hurt, etc. So just shine it on, brother. We'll find our entertainment elsewhere.....there's always SRU :) Man used to take young ladies on a date to the track. He called it dinner and drinks--they called it one beer and a slice. :D -later
-NCG

Thanks for the kind words. To say the least it's extremely rough. Anyway, I haven't noticed "proximity's" timing in posts as I'm happy to discuss most anything anyone wants to discuss.

I will be posting at some point. Just not today. Snuck 15 minutes away to read what's on PA and then back to real life.

Yes, SRU is extremely knowledgeable and entertaining :)

[dilanesp]

this.

we should all have enough respect for emd to assume he's focusing on place and show OVERLAYS.

however, i don't like the parlay because he's leaving money on the table by starting out with bets that are too small for his bankroll.

bet size should depend on his projected edge/odds ratio (accounting for pool dilution) and not the result of the last race that he "liked."

since he does bet a lot of exotics, he should be comfortable with this but who am i to say what's right for HIM?

Variance always exists, and a serious player should not try to reduce it at the cost of EV.

And takeout, when increased, quickly renders almost every bet -EV. So it's impossible to talk about overlays without thinking about takeout.

In a raketrap game, only the house can win long term.

[EMD4ME]

well at least the final bets of your sequences (the big ones) HAVE to have been overlays or else you wouldn't have been profitable over the last 20 years with the play.

furthermore these final bet horses have to be larger than normal overlays because they not only have to be profitable on their own, but they also have to overcome all the $200 losses on the plays that didn't make it until the end to make the entire strategy a winning one.

maybe I misread but I don't recall you indicating that you look for anything different in the handicapping of these final picks in a sequence so (over such a long period of time) this indicates to me that probably ALL of your plays are overlays and my point was that instead of possibly under-betting plays just because they occur early in a sequence and possibly over-betting plays just because they occur at the end a sequence that you'd do even better than you are by flattening out your bets.

hope this makes sense? :)

Yes, it preferable that the highest paying parts of the parlay come earlier as there is less money on them (and the bets don't drop the prices down).

Yes, these picks are different vs. normal plays. "Joking", the horse is a good example. I would rarely if ever bet him to win. "Prize Taker" as well. But they make out to be wonderful horses to utilize in a place/place or show/place or place/show or show/show parlays as they bring a lot of checks, rally into soft flows (and of course good flows) but rarely bring home the win bacon.

Do I key them in tri's/sups/exactas? Absolutely.

But I also play them in parlays IF the situation is right.

Would I ever consider betting them to place as a straight bet? Absolutely not. Poor value. However, since they have a high hit ratio (in the right situation) I don't mind that they pay 60% on the dollar to place instead of 80%.

I am taking no brainer near chalk horses who are near cinches and parlaying them in limited situations. The poor value hurts but in reality it doesn't as I would never bet these horses to place or show (Outside of parlays I don't play any horse to place or show) AND I am parlaying the thoughts together for 1 singular bet.

Yes, I am losing money at the tail end because the larger bet is going on one horse. Preferably I'd like it to go on a horse who is impacted the least by the wager but since I can't control that, I don't worry about it.

Again, I don't bet to place and show. Never really did. This (parlays) is the lone exception. The pros (taking shorter returns and parlaying them) far outweigh the cons (net pool pricing, price reduction by the bet size) as I would never bet these horses anyway in the P or S pools.

Hope that makes sense. If not, I accomplished what I want. (I don't want anyone copying this part time strategy that I have as it can hurt the prices on some of the horses that I am playing).

[thaskalos]

Yes, it preferable that the highest paying parts of the parlay come earlier as there is less money on them (and the bets don't drop the prices down).

Yes, these picks are different vs. normal plays. "Joking", the horse is a good example. I would rarely if ever bet him to win. "Prize Taker" as well. But they make out to be wonderful horses to utilize in a place/place or show/place or place/show or show/show parlays as they bring a lot of checks, rally into soft flows (and of course good flows) but rarely bring home the win bacon.

Do I key them in tri's/sups/exactas? Absolutely.

But I also play them in parlays IF the situation is right.

Would I ever consider betting them to place as a straight bet? Absolutely not. Poor value. However, since they have a high hit ratio (in the right situation) I don't mind that they pay 60% on the dollar to place instead of 80%.

I am taking no brainer near chalk horses who are near cinches and parlaying them in limited situations. The poor value hurts but in reality it doesn't as I would never bet these horses to place or show (Outside of parlays I don't play any horse to place or show) AND I am parlaying the thoughts together for 1 singular bet.

Yes, I am losing money at the tail end because the larger bet is going on one horse. Preferably I'd like it to go on a horse who is impacted the least by the wager but since I can't control that, I don't worry about it.

Again, I don't bet to place and show. Never really did. This (parlays) is the lone exception. The pros (taking shorter returns and parlaying them) far outweigh the cons (net pool pricing, price reduction by the bet size) as I would never bet these horses anyway in the P or S pools.

Hope that makes sense. If not, I accomplished what I want. (I don't want anyone copying this part time strategy that I have as it can hurt the prices on some of the horses that I am playing) .

You don't have to worry about anyone stealing your strategy...because it isn't your betting strategy that's making you the money. The money is made because of the horses that you are wagering on...and no one can steal those horses unless you share them with other bettors.

The more I think about this strategy of yours, by the way...the more I like it. When started with a more modest amount...even if it doesn't lead to overall profits, it becomes an inexpensive way of curing the boredom in-between serious plays. And, who knows...you can just as easily put a string together and cash out for a decent sum. :ThmbUp:

[AndyC]

......Would I ever consider betting them to place as a straight bet? Absolutely not. Poor value. However, since they have a high hit ratio (in the right situation) I don't mind that they pay 60% on the dollar to place instead of 80%......

So a horse has no value as a straight bet but magically has value when parlayed? I am not familiar with that kind of betting.

[thaskalos]

So a horse has no value as a straight bet but magically has value when parlayed? I am not familiar with that kind of betting.

What...Andy Beyer praises you in a best-selling book...and you think you know EVERYTHING?

[AndyC]

What...Andy Beyer praises you in a best-selling book...and you think you know EVERYTHING?

Au contraire, I was proclaiming my ignorance of advanced bankroll management systems. There are many sharp players on this forum and I am not above stealing ideas from any of them.

[thaskalos]

Au contraire, I was proclaiming my ignorance of advanced bankroll management systems. There are many sharp players on this forum and I am not above stealing ideas from any of them.

Sure you are! You are "proclaiming your ignorance", the same way Socrates proclaimed his...2,500 years ago. :)

[ReplayRandall]

If you're going to play parlays, at least EMD has the good sense to bet them in races at NYRA tracks with the lower breakage of 5%.

I've got a blast from the past post from "Light", with an interesting way of betting parlays:

Originally Posted by Light on 03-09-2009
So here's the money management I came up with for show parlays. If you want to make money consistently at the races,you need a strategy or plan,especially with show parlays. This method gives show parlays the structure they need. I think this method I have is better than anything I've read.

This method uses a combination of fractional Kelly and due column to maximize and safeguard a bankroll:

Total Bankroll available for show parlays $1000 (adjust accordingly).This is mostly a static Bankroll. Hopefully you dont need to come back here for a bailout.

Divide Static Bankroll by 10 = $100 This is the dynamic bankroll (working bankroll)Forget about your static bankroll for now.

Take your working bankroll and divide it by 10. You now have ten $10 units.
I call these individual units "packets".

Following me so far camera guy?

The intermediate goal (adjust to your taste): To increase the size of the working bankroll by 50%

So you want to turn the $100 bankroll into $150. When you reach that goal,your dynamic bankroll will be "reset" but the static bankroll will still not be added to. I'll explain later.

Example of play. Lets take Dave's 5 show bets he hit. 3.60 3.40 2.80 2.20 2.80. First of the 10 packets goes into action. $10 to show returns $18,then $30,then $42 then $46 and finally $64. This "packet" has been successful in its goal. It needed to get 5-1 as will all further packets initially,(adjust to your taste).. So that $10 needed to turn into at least $60.

Once the 5-1 plateau is reached,you must stop. Add the profit to the working bankroll and you now have a dynamic working bankroll of $154. This dynamic bankroll is now "reset" into 10 new individual packets of $15 each. The new packet goes into action with the goal of inflating the new bankroll by 50%. A $75 profit is now the goal,which means this packet must turn into $90 before stopping and ressetting again. If Dave hits those same 5 payouts again,the goal will be achieved again.

Now the dynamic bankroll is $225. Still nothing is taken out to the static bankroll. The next series will take it to $340,then $500, then $750. Once you get to $750 (again adjustable to taste), the packets are each worth $75. Getting 5-1 means turning it into $450. That's my limit. Once you do that,its a profit of $375.The dynamic bankroll is reset again but the profits are not added to it,instead,they finally begin to flow into the static bankroll from now on.

There are 2 questions at this point. Why build it up before skimming from the top and what happens when your parlay breaks.The reason why you build it up is because you need to start small psychologically and also prove to yourself its possible. You cant start out at the last level and be betting $200 to show. You need baby steps.

So what happens if you bust? This is the beauty of this system and why the dynamic bankroll is divided into 10 "packets". It's a safeguard. Lets go back to level 1. You have ten $10 packets.

Lets say Dave starts out and busts when placing his $46 on the last sequence of his show parlay.(see example above) He is about to complete a "session" and "reset" his dynamic bankroll to the next level when the horse breaks down. The "Packet" is dead, but he still has 9 more packets remaining. Packet #2 swings into action. Its goal though is different. It now has to get not only the 5-1 but the $10 lost from packet #1. Lets say that busts and packet 3 goes in. Now it needs 7-1 to reset the bankroll,($50+$20 from the 2 packets).The chances that someone adept at show parlays not completing 1 packet out of 10 is remote. You can get a bad streak,but chances are that you will get a good streak 1 in 10 times especially for a good player. If you cant do that,you should better your skills before trying this.

But thats not all the safeguarding. If the first 5 packets fail,the last five have a different job. You now go into fail safe mode. You've lost $50 with the first 5 packets. The job of the next 5 packets is to restore the original dynamic bankroll back to its $100,not to increase it from its original amount. So the 6th packet's job again is only to get you the 5-1. Should you hit what Dave hit and get your $64 on the 6th packet, you stop again and "reset". The most any packet will require is 9-1. I've turned show parlays up to 20-1,so I know 9-1 is within my means.If it all busts,then you have to take a bailout from your static bankroll and start all over. If you have to do this regularly,you need to quit and improve your skills before continuing.

The "resetting" is a safeguard in itself. You know you are going to bust somewhere along the line. Resetting allows you to work in "sessions" and safeguards you from losing everything at once.

As I said,its all adjustable as far as the rate you want to grow your bankroll and starting amounts and when the amounts will be reset. If you do get good at show parlays,this money management structure can earn you a nice income.

[Poindexter]

So a horse has no value as a straight bet but magically has value when parlayed? I am not familiar with that kind of betting.


I cant speak for EMD, but I think he meant to writes something different then he did. You are 100% correct. You start putting in undervalued horses into these parlays (the value being specific to the bet being made-thus show payout has to exceed show probability.......) as fun as it may seem, your cash flow will burn up in flames. It takes heavy discipline to make this strategy work long term. Also Replay Randall is 100%right, best done on a nickel breakage track.

[onefast99]

That's a great point CJ.

It's almost as if it's Taboo to discuss wagering on NBC broadcasts over the years. I'd love to see a documentary or a darn commercial showing Joe Shmo handicapping a card, playing a pick 6 and making $500,000 on a PICK 6.

Why has that been the case for years? (Not counting TVG and their "expert" pick 4 selections)
That show was already on it was called Luck it made it for a season and a half until several horses died during filming and the creators cancelled it.
The last show I saw on TV was how Chris Harn took down the 2002 Breeders Cup pick 6 while entering bets after the races were run, all negative stuff. The horse racing industry needs a few heros right now and maybe AP is just the tip of the iceberg!

[thaskalos]

That show was already on it was called Luck it made it for a season and a half until several horses died during filming and the creators cancelled it.
The last show I saw on TV was how Chris Harn took down the 2002 Breeders Cup pick 6 while entering bets after the races were run, all negative stuff. The horse racing industry needs a few heros right now and maybe AP is just the tip of the iceberg!

Heroic horses are not enough. If the game is to attract some new blood...it has to have some horseplaying role models. That's how poker and fantasy sports got to be as big as they became. Sure...a guy wins a large pick-6 and makes news in our game too...but then it's revealed that the winner spent $3,500 on his winning ticket...and the interested newcomers lose interest.

Our game requires a lot of at-home preparation...so, the interested newcomer has to be assured that this game can indeed be a profitable venture, before he commits his time and resources to it. And, regrettably, there currently isn't enough proof around to make a compelling case for the "profitability" of playing this game.

[v j stauffer]

Loved that movie. I know you're trying to set me up for some sort of point AND ALTHOUGH YOU REFUSE TO REPLY TO ALL MY POSTS, I'll bite...

Yes, I have, why do you ask?

There's no trap. The word obtuse plays a big roll in that movie.

[Saratoga_Mike]

There's no trap. The word obtuse plays a big roll in that movie.

He's posted his ADW results and sent his monthly statements to another poster. I believe he's solidly profitable. Why do believe he's obtuse? Are you profitable betting horses (I am not)?

[thaskalos]

He's posted his ADW results and sent his monthly statements to another poster. I believe he's solidly profitable. Why do believe he's obtuse? Are you profitable betting horses (I am not)?

Documented proof is not enough. If Vic Stauffer doesn't agree with your methods of operation...then you must be a "f**king moron". :rolleyes:

[v j stauffer]

He's posted his ADW results and sent his monthly statements to another poster. I believe he's solidly profitable. Why do believe he's obtuse? Are you profitable betting horses (I am not)?

I didn't say he was obtuse. He brought the word up in one of his posts. It made me think of the movie The Shawshank Redemption. The word obtuse is an integral part of that movie.

It didn't call him obtuse.

[v j stauffer]

He's posted his ADW results and sent his monthly statements to another poster. I believe he's solidly profitable. Why do believe he's obtuse? Are you profitable betting horses (I am not)?

Yes

[Stillriledup]

Heroic horses are not enough. If the game is to attract some new blood...it has to have some horseplaying role models. That's how poker and fantasy sports got to be as big as they became. Sure...a guy wins a large pick-6 and makes news in our game too...but then it's revealed that the winner spent $3,500 on his winning ticket...and the interested newcomers lose interest.

Our game requires a lot of at-home preparation...so, the interested newcomer has to be assured that this game can indeed be a profitable venture, before he commits his time and resources to it. And, regrettably, there currently isn't enough proof around to make a compelling case for the "profitability" of playing this game.

Racing needs to be like poker Find its Annie Duke. Why does racing not have an Annie Duke?

[dilanesp]

Racing needs to be like poker Find its Annie Duke. Why does racing not have an Annie Duke?

Poker only succeeded on television (it had been tried for years before that) when the hole card cam made it possible for viewers to see what was happening. Without that hole card cam, Annie Duke and Phil Hellmuth and Doyle Brunson and Jennifer Harman never would have been famous outside of the niche of people who care about professional poker.

And there's another thing to realize about pro poker players on television. With a few exceptions (Phil Ivey is a completely proven long term winner), many of them are not the biggest winners out there. There are math whizzes who don't play in televised high variance luckbox poker tournaments but who consistently just take huge amounts of money out of poker, both live and online. They are similar to the shadowy figures out there who are the biggest winning horseplayers, who also do just a ton of math and have sophisticated computerized betting models.

Those people aren't exciting. They just win.

I happen to think that HBO's "Luck" actually did a pretty good job of dramatizing the life of ordinary horseplayers. But there's just nothing quite comparable to what a hole card cam does for you in poker, basically putting the viewer inside the decisionmaking process. Without that, there's no way horse racing can ever have its Annie Duke.

[ebcorde]

you guys are killing EMD. It's not my favorite way to play but I've played that style. I have one son in law school, another in college. I don't have cash to throw around. so I'll do 2-3 show or Place bets. Then a win bet (sometime all, somethimes half). With the equibase book on 10 tracks or the "free if you hit" Brisnets, if I hit , I'll go from $10 to $60-$100 then I do a pick 3-4 bet.
if I lose I lost my $10. That's my poor man's way. waiting till these dudes are out of the house. They eat too much food.

and if you can only find 1-2 bets, you can play tomorrow can continue.

but hey, I also thought the 10 cent superfecta, 50 cent trifecta was to avoid the tax man.

[NorCalGreg]

Racing needs to be like poker Find its Annie Duke. Why does racing not have an Annie Duke?

Couldn't you think of anyone younger, instead of some 65 yr old tatted up chick like Annie Duke? VANESSA ROUSSO maybe? She's hot and she can play.

[Stillriledup]

Couldn't you think of anyone younger, instead of some 65 yr old tatted up chick like Annie Duke? VANESSA ROUSSO maybe? She's hot and she can play.

I dont know poker but Annie Duke came to mind. Ive heard of Annie Duke even though i dont 'follow' poker.

[Saratoga_Mike]

It didn't call him obtuse.

Apologies. You just called or intimated he was a f.....g moron.

[NorCalGreg]

I dont know poker but Annie Duke came to mind. Ive heard of Annie Duke even though i dont 'follow' poker.

LOL....I don't really watch poker anymore either. Not sure if Annie is 65, or tatted up. I know she's no spring chicken though, and Rousso is a babe-a-holic.
She needs help, man. :D :D :D

http://bustedcoverage.com/2014/02/28/sexiest-women-poker-photos/

[dilanesp]

Couldn't you think of anyone younger, instead of some 65 yr old tatted up chick like Annie Duke? VANESSA ROUSSO maybe? She's hot and she can play.

Annie Duke is 50. And when she became popular, she was 39 or so. Very decent looking.

[v j stauffer]

Apologies. You just called or intimated he was a f.....g moron.

Right

[NorCalGreg]

Annie Duke is 50. And when she became popular, she was 39 or so. Very decent looking.

Isn't her brother a big shot poker player?

[dilanesp]

Isn't her brother a big shot poker player?

Yeah. He has kept a low profile lately, because he was one of the principals in Full Tilt Poker, which was exposed to be a Ponzi scheme in 2011 after the federal government shut down the major poker sites.

[NorCalGreg]

Yeah. He has kept a low profile lately, because he was one of the principals in Full Tilt Poker, which was exposed to be a Ponzi scheme in 2011 after the federal government shut down the major poker sites.

Damn.....didn't know all that.

[EMD4ME]

It makes sense to me. The entire argument being put forward is that there is some kind of special benefit to parlaying versus flat betting or percentage betting show horses. I don't think there is any mathematical analysis that could support that kind of bankroll management. I can, however, see psychological benefits of such betting. Whether or not those benefits outweigh the detriments of poor bankroll management is a purely personal matter. If it works for EMD4ME then that's great.

I personally, do not see how it is poor bankroll management. Call me a F***ing Moron :lol: :lol: :lol:

Not you AndyC...but one other classy individual here.


I am out of words and simply don't know how else I can explain this. It's the same as taking your $1000 bankroll and betting 10 $100 win bets on 7/1 shots.

However, in this case, I am not betting 10 7/1 shots in different races.

I am betting that my personal ability in selecting horses to place and show (certain cases win as well) is strong enough to be able successfully parlay 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 short priced opinions sequentially successfully to equal 1 7/1 shot.

I may earn 1/1 on one $100 unit. (Probably a 2 race sequence)

I may earn 11/1 on one $100 unit. (Probably a 4-6 race sequence)

I may earn 7/1 on the next one. (Probably a 3-6 race sequence)

I may lose the next 7.

In the aforementioned example, I make $2200 with a cost of $1000. Profit $1200.

It's a CONSERVATIVE way of hitting a 7/1 shot IF you are very good at selecting conservative & consecutive plays (that are NOT $2.10-$2.40 returns).

[v j stauffer]

I personally, do not see how it is poor bankroll management. Call me a F***ing Moron :lol: :lol: :lol:

Not you AndyC...but one other classy individual here.


I am out of words and simply don't know how else I can explain this. It's the same as taking your $1000 bankroll and betting 10 $100 win bets on 7/1 shots.

However, in this case, I am not betting 10 7/1 shots in different races.

I am betting that my personal ability in selecting horses to place and show (certain cases win as well) is strong enough to be able successfully parlay 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 short priced opinions sequentially successfully to equal 1 7/1 shot.

I may earn 1/1 on one $100 unit. (Probably a 2 race sequence)

I may earn 11/1 on one $100 unit. (Probably a 4-6 race sequence)

I may earn 7/1 on the next one. (Probably a 3-6 race sequence)

I may lose the next 7.

In the aforementioned example, I make $2200 with a cost of $1000. Profit $1200.

It's a CONSERVATIVE way of hitting a 7/1 shot IF you are very good at selecting conservative & consecutive plays (that are NOT $2.10-$2.40 returns).

My god. You're all acting like a girl that got felt up at the middle school prom. All because of one little F-BOMB.

Ok Ok. I take it back. Sorry I said F*****G.

EMD. Please accept my sincere apology.

From this point forward you're just an average, run of the mill, garden variety MORON.

Deal? :ThmbUp:

[EMD4ME]

Variance always exists, and a serious player should not try to reduce it at the cost of EV.

And takeout, when increased, quickly renders almost every bet -EV. So it's impossible to talk about overlays without thinking about takeout.

In a raketrap game, only the house can win long term.

IF, I am 90% to selecting $2.60 payouts (30% return), with all due respect, what the heck do I care? Especially if I am parlaying them?

Would I play russian roulette with a 90% chance of living? Absolutely not. But I am playing a game guys/gals with money. And to my unique eyes, THIS IS a profitable way to play.

Listen everyone, I am NOT talking people into betting chalk to show or place. If you don't see what I am saying, your loss.

I have never nor will ever make a place or show bet as a straight wager on anything less than 20/1 plus. Nor, do I often make wagers on 20/1 shots to place or show. Maybe once a month, if that much. It's not how I play. I bet the PICKS. Pick 4's, 5's and 6's.

It's an innovative way to leverage easy pickings in addition to my PICKS. On rare days, it is my play of the day.

I said it before and I'll say it again. I wish I only played parlays. It would reduce many heart attacks as a $40,000 ticket loses by a nose or a bonehead ride.

This wasn't meant at you Dilanesp. I respect you and your posts. Meant this in general.

I'll also say this. Today at Belmont, to me there were 2 short priced horses that looked "easy" to hit the board. Race 2 and Race 5.

NorCalGreg asked me to post plays. I said: the track was biased all of opening weekend. It rained, who knows if and how the turf will play. I didn't wager today. Part of being accurate in these parlays is avoiding horses who look easy but are not.

The 5 in race 2 looked solid but I smelled his "dressed up ness". Had an ULTRA perfect set up 3 back, was bet off of the deceiving line 2 back. Yes, did race on a DEAD rail 2 back but didn't run impressive in his last AND was put up for sale instead of waiting for another maiden starter 50.

The 6 in race 5 was a horse I crushed last time. Not today. Why? Because in his previous 2 races, he had GREAT TRIPS. There was 1 speed today. I was afraid he would stalk/press as the babysitter.

PASS.

If there is a hole, you don't play.

If you will play the parlays, you best be sure you are right. I avoided a trap today.

It is hard but you must only play horses who are rock solid.

[EMD4ME]

If you're going to play parlays, at least EMD has the good sense to bet them in races at NYRA tracks with the lower breakage of 5%.

I've got a blast from the past post from "Light", with an interesting way of betting parlays:

At least a couple of people see the Light and understand the Light :lol:

If this "Light" still exists, tell him/her/it I said hello and I admire this post from 2009.

Thanks ReplayRandall, I would bet other tracks but in my crazy head, I would want to know all nuances of the other track before I wager (bias notes, trip notes, who's hot etc. etc. etc.) so I don't.

Woodbine would be nice as they pay to the 5% but I hate poly.

[v j stauffer]

At least a couple of people see the Light and understand the Light :lol:

If this "Light" still exists, tell him/her/it I said hello and I admire this post from 2009.

Thanks ReplayRandall, I would bet other tracks but in my crazy head, I would want to know all nuances of the other track before I wager (bias notes, trip notes, who's hot etc. etc. etc.) so I don't.

Woodbine would be nice as they pay to the 5% but I hate poly.

When will you be posting your picks prior to your plays?

[NorCalGreg]

At least a couple of people see the Light and understand the Light :lol:

If this "Light" still exists, tell him/her/it I said hello and I admire this post from 2009.

Thanks ReplayRandall, I would bet other tracks but in my crazy head, I would want to know all nuances of the other track before I wager (bias notes, trip notes, who's hot etc. etc. etc.) so I don't.

Woodbine would be nice as they pay to the 5% but I hate poly.

I see "Light" posting up on the RELIGION thread. Thought I had seen that "packet" method of parley play before....but I might have just seen it here. This site comes up on quite a few google horse racing searches--I'm always looking for horse stuff.

[EMD4ME]

When will you be posting your picks prior to your plays?

I will post them as I naturally play them. (meaning as the opportunities come to me as opposed to me finding opportunities to prove a point and forcing a wager to prove something to some posters)

As I stated to NorCalGreg:

1) Today was a non play day as I smelled variable results. Track dried out from weekend rain, track was biased Fri-Sat-Sun. I was unsure of what races were on Turf or if the Turf was good or firm when I left the house at 8:45 to work and drive mom to medical appointments.

2) I will be posting soon, god willing.

I will tell you that I will not be posting tomorrow as I have to force my way in to a medical center at 7 a.m. tomorrow so that they could take my mother's INR level ASAP. Her nurse services abruptly stopped this week, with no notice and she has been left to die by our disgustingly repulsive health care system. She has not had her blood level checked in 9 days. This after her blood level fluctuated from 3.9 down to as low as 1.0.

God willing, you will hear from me Friday or Saturday if I like any plays and can focus on horse racing.

I will post on this thread.

As you may have figured out by now:

1) I am a man of my word. I'd rather DIE than compromise my word.

2) Do I look like the type to hide? AP won the Belmont and I got on here in 10 seconds to say : I eat crow.

Don't worry, you will hear from me.

[AndyC]

I personally, do not see how it is poor bankroll management. Call me a F***ing Moron :lol: :lol: :lol:

I am out of words and simply don't know how else I can explain this. It's the same as taking your $1000 bankroll and betting 10 $100 win bets on 7/1 shots.

However, in this case, I am not betting 10 7/1 shots in different races.

I am betting that my personal ability in selecting horses to place and show (certain cases win as well) is strong enough to be able successfully parlay 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 short priced opinions sequentially successfully to equal 1 7/1 shot.

I may earn 1/1 on one $100 unit. (Probably a 2 race sequence)

I may earn 11/1 on one $100 unit. (Probably a 4-6 race sequence)

I may earn 7/1 on the next one. (Probably a 3-6 race sequence)

I may lose the next 7.

In the aforementioned example, I make $2200 with a cost of $1000. Profit $1200.

It's a CONSERVATIVE way of hitting a 7/1 shot IF you are very good at selecting conservative & consecutive plays (that are NOT $2.10-$2.40 returns).


My view of betting a parlay is that you are making 3 individual bets. No bet is connected to another other than by your say so. Shouldn't the size of any individual bet be determined by your edge and the size of your bankroll? To determine the size of any individual bet by the success or lack there of of a prior individual bet does not seem logical.

[v j stauffer]

I will post them as I naturally play them. (meaning as the opportunities come to me as opposed to me finding opportunities to prove a point and forcing a wager to prove something to some posters)

As I stated to NorCalGreg:

1) Today was a non play day as I smelled variable results. Track dried out from weekend rain, track was biased Fri-Sat-Sun. I was unsure of what races were on Turf or if the Turf was good or firm when I left the house at 8:45 to work and drive mom to medical appointments.

2) I will be posting soon, god willing.

I will tell you that I will not be posting tomorrow as I have to force my way in to a medical center at 7 a.m. tomorrow so that they could take my mother's INR level ASAP. Her nurse services abruptly stopped this week, with no notice and she has been left to die by our disgustingly repulsive health care system. She has not had her blood level checked in 9 days. This after her blood level fluctuated from 3.9 down to as low as 1.0.

God willing, you will hear from me Friday or Saturday if I like any plays and can focus on horse racing.

I will post on this thread.

As you may have figured out by now:

1) I am a man of my word. I'd rather DIE than compromise my word.

2) Do I look like the type to hide? AP won the Belmont and I got on here in 10 seconds to say : I eat crow.

Don't worry, you will hear from me.

I'm not questioning your word or integrity in any fashion.

I'm actually interested in seeing if you can really pull this off.

Believe me, I hope you can.

Anybody that knows me will attest to the fact that I rejoice in anyone that can tackle the windows and survive.

Will be fun to follow.

As a tournament player my picks are always there for the world to see. Good, bad, beautiful and ugly.

Saturday I'm playing in a $20,000 Derby Wars contest against just 9 other players. Pays 4 spots 10k, 5k, 3k, 2k.

Very tough field. Who's who of top tournament players including Travis Reese and Brent Sumja.

Will not be easy to hit the money.

[MonmouthParkJoe]

I was talking about this today. While not so much saving the game as a whole, bringing people back onsite to the track.

The game has done everything possible to keep people away from the track with online wagering. Yes the rebates help, but the fact of the matter is why would a big player or any player leave the comfort of their home to waste gas and time, pay for parking and a program, to do the same exact thing they can do from home without being price gouged.

I for one love the atmosphere and the people I know from the tracks I visit. I am home enough, its nice to get out.

Offer reduced takeout on wagers made onsite. I think if people knew they could make that much more being at the track versus home, it would make a difference. It would also add to the churn, knowing their takeout was much better at the track they are at versus other places that kill players on takeout.

Also allow for an experimental time frame to institute this change or any other change. If it is successful, go through the normal motions to get the change permanent. I know a lot of people don't realize the hoops tracks have to go through in order to make any change in terms of wagering with all the regulations. This would allow them to try more things to improve the product without the lag from normal protocol.

Just an idea.

[EMD4ME]

My view of betting a parlay is that you are making 3 individual bets. No bet is connected to another other than by your say so. Shouldn't the size of any individual bet be determined by your edge and the size of your bankroll? To determine the size of any individual bet by the success or lack there of of a prior individual bet does not seem logical.

I may be crazy (some here would attest to it) but if I make the following wagers:

Race 1 $100 win 3

Race 2 $100 win 5

Race 3 $100 win 7

They are 3 different wagers.

To me, 1 parlay bet is one bet.

If I play the pick 6, with 320 combos at a $2 unit=$640. I don't say I bet 320 different pick 6 sequences. It's just 1 wager for $640.

To answer the last part of your post, Keep in mind, yet again, I would never and I mean ever, bet any of these parlay horses to place or show as a straight bet. Again, so to me it is really just 1 bet.

I'll say it a different way:

At the end of the day as I analyze my plays, it's 1 wager. It's a $200 parlay on 3 races. One result. Either I won or lost. Same thing with the pick 6. You either won or you lost on the $640 wagered in that pool.

Yes, you can drill down to analyze the detail of the bets that encompass the entire singular wager but it's still 1 bet.

I bet that monday will come, tuesday will come next and then Wednesday.

I would never bet on monday alone. Or Tuesday alone or Wednesday alone but I would make 1 wager on all the coming in, in succession.

My apologies AndyC. My last response wasn't directed specifically to you. Just a response to the masses. Hope I didn't offend.

[EMD4ME]

I was talking about this today. While not so much saving the game as a whole, bringing people back onsite to the track.

The game has done everything possible to keep people away from the track with online wagering. Yes the rebates help, but the fact of the matter is why would a big player or any player leave the comfort of their home to waste gas and time, pay for parking and a program, to do the same exact thing they can do from home without being price gouged.

I for one love the atmosphere and the people I know from the tracks I visit. I am home enough, its nice to get out.

Offer reduced takeout on wagers made onsite. I think if people knew they could make that much more being at the track versus home, it would make a difference. It would also add to the churn, knowing their takeout was much better at the track they are at versus other places that kill players on takeout.

Also allow for an experimental time frame to institute this change or any other change. If it is successful, go through the normal motions to get the change permanent. I know a lot of people don't realize the hoops tracks have to go through in order to make any change in terms of wagering with all the regulations. This would allow them to try more things to improve the product without the lag from normal protocol.

Just an idea.

I LOVE IT. Delaware did it. Don't think it worked much but I begged at a 2013 horseplayers meeting at Belmont for that to happen. That meeting was cut short as although well intentioned, they started it too close to the pick 5 and I had to cut out.

Please make it happen!!!!!!!!

[EMD4ME]

I'm not questioning your word or integrity in any fashion.

I'm actually interested in seeing if you can really pull this off.

Believe me, I hope you can.

Anybody that knows me will attest to the fact that I rejoice in anyone that can tackle the windows and survive.

Will be fun to follow.

As a tournament player my picks are always there for the world to see. Good, bad, beautiful and ugly.

Saturday I'm playing in a $20,000 Derby Wars contest against just 9 other players. Pays 4 spots 10k, 5k, 3k, 2k.

Very tough field. Who's who of top tournament players including Travis Reese and Brent Sumja.

Will not be easy to hit the money.

Well I hope you accept sincere well wishes from F***ing Morons as I truly wish you the best of luck in that contest Vic.

I am incapable of ill wishes on others, not part of my core. So go kick some ass and let us know about it.

I look forward to pulling it off as well. Like anything else in horse racing, patience is the key.

I don't play them every day. Or every week. I play when the situation arises. So, when it does, you will see them on this thread.

[proximity]

How does this "proximity" guy know all about someone else's bankroll? He always seems to appear to prop you up, EMD.

how do I know about his bankroll?

it's called reading the thread. like I said in post 159: he's profitable long term with big p/s bets and not only that, they must be really profitable to overcome all the $200 losses among the way. this tells me the $200 bets aren't anything relative to his bankroll.

and your second sentence is news to me although overall i'd say I do enjoy emd's posts. maybe because it seems we've chewed some of the same dirt in our live racing experiences? i certainly have no reason to dislike the guy.

[v j stauffer]

Well I hope you accept sincere well wishes from F***ing Morons as I truly wish you the best of luck in that contest Vic.

I am incapable of ill wishes on others, not part of my core. So go kick some ass and let us know about it.

I look forward to pulling it off as well. Like anything else in horse racing, patience is the key.

I don't play them every day. Or every week. I play when the situation arises. So, when it does, you will see them on this thread.

Thanks. I already took back and apologized for the F-Bomb. There's gotta be a statute of limitations.

Hoping for a good showing Saturday. There will be 14 mythical W/P bets. Returns are capped at $32.00 and $18.00 for any race.

Haven't been told which tracks or races yet.

[proximity]

It makes sense to me. The entire argument being put forward is that there is some kind of special benefit to parlaying versus flat betting or percentage betting show horses. I don't think there is any mathematical analysis that could support that kind of bankroll management. I can, however, see psychological benefits of such betting. Whether or not those benefits outweigh the detriments of poor bankroll management is a purely personal matter. If it works for EMD4ME then that's great.

there's not and the only psychological benefit is that the parlay loss is capped at $200. however, his very first sentence in response to me was that he was only doing this to balance his high risk wagers just a tad with wagers of this nature and to me $200 isn't doing this when he's betting (I believe he said) 6-10k a day.

as I said, those big bets must have a really nice edge to overcome all the $200 losses so this is telling me that he has a unique talent for finding these bets and a lot more potential to "balance" his entire strategy with them than this parlay system is doing.

at the end of the day, you're right. if it works: great!

[Track Phantom]

To me, there is a psychological component to playing this game with any longevity. It might sound strange and silly to some, but profitability is only one reason of three of four reasons I play the game. It is one part enjoyment/entertainment, one part mental stimulation, one part chance of profitability and one part getting a "challenge" fix.

Personally, if my sole goal of playing this game was to make a profit, I would quit tomorrow. I think it is brutally difficult to make any kind of long term profit that would justify the time invested.

If someone wants to play a show parlay on a bunch of favorites and that satisfies his/her involvement, I have no problem with it and wouldn't criticize it, even if it was mathematically a poor decision.

As far as what can be done to promote the game by those of us playing/investing daily, I would say we ARE promoting the game with our dollars. Until officials take it seriously, I won't waste my time. If the game goes away, so be it. There are a ton of things that can be done to make the game more relevant but, from my vantage point, it takes a very low priority in most jurisdictions.

Until there is unification at a broader, national level, very little will ever be done to move the needle. My guess is it has to get worse, a lot worse, before it can get better. I think we're seeing the game eroding with the closing of Hollywood, Suffolk, Arlington (likely next year) and many other staple locations. Those that are serious about turning the tide will be able to. Canterbury Park is showing that there are things that can be done to make the product appealing.

I have no faith that our concerns are prioritized on the same level that we think they should be. Until they are, I'll remain a peripheral participant in the game, and no more.

[EMD4ME]

My god. You're all acting like a girl that got felt up at the middle school prom. All because of one little F-BOMB.

Ok Ok. I take it back. Sorry I said F*****G.

EMD. Please accept my sincere apology.

From this point forward you're just an average, run of the mill, garden variety MORON.

Deal? :ThmbUp:

Sorry Vic, I missed this post last night as I was a bit distracted. Hence, my 1 comment in return to being called a F***ing Moron in post 206.

Glad I'm not your wife. Jeez, if that's your version of an apology, I'd hate to see you hold a grudge :lol: ;)

[EMD4ME]

there's not and the only psychological benefit is that the parlay loss is capped at $200. however, his very first sentence in response to me was that he was only doing this to balance his high risk wagers just a tad with wagers of this nature and to me $200 isn't doing this when he's betting (I believe he said) 6-10k a day.

as I said, those big bets must have a really nice edge to overcome all the $200 losses so this is telling me that he has a unique talent for finding these bets and a lot more potential to "balance" his entire strategy with them than this parlay system is doing.

at the end of the day, you're right. if it works: great!

3-10K. 10K on days like the marathons at the SPA. 3K on normal days at the BIG A.

0 on days where I am distracted. If my mind is on life, I can't focus on horses.

The pick bets are extremely volatile. Ironically, the parlays (and win bets) are where I run to for stability. (when they are available-meaning when the races offer the proper wagering possibilities).

[EMD4ME]

To me, there is a psychological component to playing this game with any longevity. It might sound strange and silly to some, but profitability is only one reason of three of four reasons I play the game. It is one part enjoyment/entertainment, one part mental stimulation, one part chance of profitability and one part getting a "challenge" fix.

Personally, if my sole goal of playing this game was to make a profit, I would quit tomorrow. I think it is brutally difficult to make any kind of long term profit that would justify the time invested.

If someone wants to play a show parlay on a bunch of favorites and that satisfies his/her involvement, I have no problem with it and wouldn't criticize it, even if it was mathematically a poor decision.

As far as what can be done to promote the game by those of us playing/investing daily, I would say we ARE promoting the game with our dollars. Until officials take it seriously, I won't waste my time. If the game goes away, so be it. There are a ton of things that can be done to make the game more relevant but, from my vantage point, it takes a very low priority in most jurisdictions.

Until there is unification at a broader, national level, very little will ever be done to move the needle. My guess is it has to get worse, a lot worse, before it can get better. I think we're seeing the game eroding with the closing of Hollywood, Suffolk, Arlington (likely next year) and many other staple locations. Those that are serious about turning the tide will be able to. Canterbury Park is showing that there are things that can be done to make the product appealing.

I have no faith that our concerns are prioritized on the same level that we think they should be. Until they are, I'll remain a peripheral participant in the game, and no more.

It's a crying shame that the "game" will not seriously address it's issues until (MAYBE) it's too late.

For me, to just think of additional eroding (tracks closing) pains my chest.

[ebcorde]

just reminding people the Place Show pools are big. ENDME is sending it in.

[Pick 'em Charlie]

http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/story/_/page/Belmontracingfading/2015-belmont-stakes-why-horse-racing-continues-fade

Yes, the game is prospering at the SPA and AP's TC victory has helped but what can we, the diehards of horseracing DO to promote this game? To help the industry?

Any ideas?

I'm sure this has been discussed at nauseum but it bothers me everyday :mad:

Large post and I haven't read through it. But what is needed is to reach people that have never been to a racetrack. And with tracks becoming fewer and fewer, less people will have access to tracks and the audience will become smaller and smaller.

Where can we find people that haven't been to the track? On the Internet. The casinos have training websites. The NTRA should have one also. Make it fun. Set up training based on past races.

[AndyC]

I may be crazy (some here would attest to it) but if I make the following wagers:

Race 1 $100 win 3

Race 2 $100 win 5

Race 3 $100 win 7

They are 3 different wagers.

To me, 1 parlay bet is one bet.

If I play the pick 6, with 320 combos at a $2 unit=$640. I don't say I bet 320 different pick 6 sequences. It's just 1 wager for $640.

To answer the last part of your post, Keep in mind, yet again, I would never and I mean ever, bet any of these parlay horses to place or show as a straight bet. Again, so to me it is really just 1 bet.

I'll say it a different way:

At the end of the day as I analyze my plays, it's 1 wager. It's a $200 parlay on 3 races. One result. Either I won or lost. Same thing with the pick 6. You either won or you lost on the $640 wagered in that pool.

Yes, you can drill down to analyze the detail of the bets that encompass the entire singular wager but it's still 1 bet.

I bet that monday will come, tuesday will come next and then Wednesday.

I would never bet on monday alone. Or Tuesday alone or Wednesday alone but I would make 1 wager on all the coming in, in succession.

My apologies AndyC. My last response wasn't directed specifically to you. Just a response to the masses. Hope I didn't offend.

Psychologically you may think that you are making one bet similar to a P-3 but the fact is you have the option to bet or not bet at any point in the parlay so, in fact, each bet is an independent event.

No apologies necessary. You have made no personal attacks on me. Disagreements on methods and philosophies and ensuing discussions regarding same are the reasons I am here in the first place.

[PaceAdvantage]

From this point forward you're just an average, run of the mill, garden variety MORON.The only reason this reply wasn't deleted or edited is because you are one of the few on here who actually uses your real name (or part of your real name) in your screen name, so everyone knows who you are and you own every singe comment you make here.

But I would kindly ask you to stop with the name calling. Thanks.

[v j stauffer]

The only reason this reply wasn't deleted or edited is because you are one of the few on here who actually uses your real name (or part of your real name) in your screen name, so everyone knows who you are and you own every singe comment you make here.

But I would kindly ask you to stop with the name calling. Thanks.

Better yet I'll just stop with you, the 7 people that post, and this :sleeping: silly site.

[proximity]

Better yet I'll just stop with you, the 7 people that post, and this :sleeping: silly site.

you're leaving before emd even posts the picks? :)

[Poindexter]

]Psychologically you may think that you are making one bet similar to a P-3 but the fact is you have the option to bet or not bet at any point in the parlay so, in fact, each bet is an independent event. [/B]
.

Let's say that I can hit about 75% places on my super prime "locks" and can find about 4 of these a week(or month....) that pay lets say $3.00 to place each. Now I can bet say $100 to place on each and on average hit 3 of 4 and make $50(bet $400 and get a return of $450). Or maybe that doesn't seem appealing to me. Maybe I would rather parlay all 4 of them. I take the same $400 and parlay the 4 of them. 31.64% of the time I will hit the parlay and get back $2025. Now my expected return for the same $400 risk is (2025*31.64% or $640.71). What I essentially would be doing is taking 4 3/4 shots paying 1/2 and converting them it into one roughly 2-1 shot paying roughly 4-1.

Obviously an expected profit of $240.71 over ever 4 races is far better than an expected profit of $50 over the same 4 races. The obvious argument will be but you can afford to bet a lot more on the individual races and that is correct, but EMD has made it clear he is not interested in playing these horse independently. He is like me and many other horseplayers(I believe) who are not really interested in making large bets on 1/2 shots.........By parlaying these bets he is compounding high percentage low return plays into a lower percentage, higher roi play that fits better in his comfort level. Makes total sense to me.

[dilanesp]

My view of betting a parlay is that you are making 3 individual bets. No bet is connected to another other than by your say so. Shouldn't the size of any individual bet be determined by your edge and the size of your bankroll? To determine the size of any individual bet by the success or lack there of of a prior individual bet does not seem logical.

That's right. EITHER a parlay is 1 bet with a significantly increased takeout, or it is 3 separate bets where rather than determining how much to bet based on the strength of the play, the amount bet is based solely on something that should be irrelevant, the size of your last hit.

Here's another way to put it. Let's say EMD looks up at the tote board on the 4th leg of his show parlay and sees that there's a huge imbalance in the show pool with way too much bet on his selection. Does he bail on the parlay? He should.

[AndyC]

Now my expected return for the same $400 risk is (2025*31.64% or $640.71)....

So if a bettor starts a $10 win parlay in race 1 and wins the first 8 races and amasses $20,000 from his bets, will he have lost $20,000 in the 9th race if his bet loses or only $10? Your winnings are your money. Any bets subsequent to the initial bet requires you to take on additional risk.

[dilanesp]

To me, there is a psychological component to playing this game with any longevity. It might sound strange and silly to some, but profitability is only one reason of three of four reasons I play the game. It is one part enjoyment/entertainment, one part mental stimulation, one part chance of profitability and one part getting a "challenge" fix.

Personally, if my sole goal of playing this game was to make a profit, I would quit tomorrow. I think it is brutally difficult to make any kind of long term profit that would justify the time invested.

If someone wants to play a show parlay on a bunch of favorites and that satisfies his/her involvement, I have no problem with it and wouldn't criticize it, even if it was mathematically a poor decision.

That's a totally reasonable view. There are poker players I have played against who know they are playing too many hands and making bad plays, but don't want to be patient and play more correctly because it would be less fun. There's nothing wrong with that as long as you know that you are leaving money on the table.

But the thing is, there are far more poker players who also play too many hands and make bad plays, and think they are such great strategists and people-readers that they are able to make up for their disregard of math....

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by AndyC[B]

No, not Andy B. but we both have a wife named Susan.

[Poindexter]

So if a bettor starts a $10 win parlay in race 1 and wins the first 8 races and amasses $20,000 from his bets, will he have lost $20,000 in the 9th race if his bet loses or only $10? Your winnings are your money. Any bets subsequent to the initial bet requires you to take on additional risk.

Back in junior high I used to have a teacher that used to say "what does that have to do with the price of cheese in Japan?" Sort of fits here. I stipulated the risk of each wager. They all have a 75% chance of winning and pay $3.00. The key to this strategy is you have to be making value plays(on all plays). The expected return was based off of the probabilities and returns I stipulated. As I said way up above using this strategy successfully is much easier said then done, but I consider it to be a sound betting strategy if you are good enough to find value on these types of horses (no easy task). I repeat I do not use this strategy as most heavy chalks I see tend to be overbet in my eyes, not underbet. I would probably find a play once a month if I tried and I hardly have the patience for that (I am a recreational player).

Regarding the money being your money going into the last leg, that is completely irrelevant We know going in that we are parlaying x amount of runners and that we will be letting it ride. You either come to grips with that aspect or do not use this strategy.

Regarding Andy B, I was not calling you Andy B, I tried to bold and it did not work out too well.

[Tee]

If the wager is a true parlay that started in the 1st race, the bettor hasn't won anything before the 9th race has run.


So if a bettor starts a $10 win parlay in race 1 and wins the first 8 races and amasses $20,000 from his bets, will he have lost $20,000 in the 9th race if his bet loses or only $10? Your winnings are your money. Any bets subsequent to the initial bet requires you to take on additional risk.

[proximity]

Does he bail on the parlay? He should.

i'm sure he does. do you think he's been beating nyra since the 1990s (post 104) by betting underlays? he can't be because his edge is so big that he has to be making VERY few mistakes.

he's comfortable with what he's doing but in addition to quitting parlays and flattening out his bets i'd also recommend making MORE bets.

for example post 196 tells us that he's 90% with his $2.60 horses. to me the 17% roi here is too high and he should be finding a lot more smaller overlays closer to the break-even point. with his rebate he could go down into the mid-upper 70%s with these horses. obviously the roi isn't as good on these plays, but there are a lot more of them.

jmo

[Stillriledup]

So if a bettor starts a $10 win parlay in race 1 and wins the first 8 races and amasses $20,000 from his bets, will he have lost $20,000 in the 9th race if his bet loses or only $10? Your winnings are your money. Any bets subsequent to the initial bet requires you to take on additional risk.

Unless you lock in the parlay on a specific bet that won't allow you to draw from the winnings until the sequence is over. I'm guessing that tracks in 2015 don't have the capability to offer a bet like this, the parlay is dependent on the bettor doing the legwork.

[dilanesp]

i'm sure he does. do you think he's been beating nyra since the 1990s (post 104) by betting underlays? he can't be because his edge is so big that he has to be making VERY few mistakes.

If he does bail on the parlay when the last race horse is overbet, than Andy C's question becomes relevant-- why not just bet the amount on the horse that is justified by the horse's chances and the extent of the overlay rather than insisting on betting the exact amount won on the last race?

Since you play no limit hold 'em, imagine a no limit player whose formula for sizing her bets is the amount of money that she won on whatever the last hand she played was. Would that be correct? Or would it be more correct to size her bet based on the conditions of the hand she was playing?

Playing a parlay is the same thing.

[proximity]

If he does bail on the parlay when the last race horse is overbet, than Andy C's question becomes relevant-- why not just bet the amount on the horse that is justified by the horse's chances and the extent of the overlay rather than insisting on betting the exact amount won on the last race?

Since you play no limit hold 'em, imagine a no limit player whose formula for sizing her bets is the amount of money that she won on whatever the last hand she played was. Would that be correct? Or would it be more correct to size her bet based on the conditions of the hand she was playing?

Playing a parlay is the same thing.

I never advocated the parlay and in fact believe I was the first one to recommend he play each race separately based on e/o after accounting for pool dilution. (post 151)

since the edge on these plays is so large, there has to be a lot more smaller edge plays that he's passing and now i'm recommending that he also makes these bets.

I think what i'm saying will help him more in his quest for "balance" although with his rebates I do agree with you about the trifectas for a handicapper that good.

[AndyC]

If the wager is a true parlay that started in the 1st race, the bettor hasn't won anything before the 9th race has run.

True, but we are not talking about a locked bet such as a P-6.

Parlay wagering is still on the books in CA but I am not sure if the tracks are actually taking them.

[AndyC]

Unless you lock in the parlay on a specific bet that won't allow you to draw from the winnings until the sequence is over. I'm guessing that tracks in 2015 don't have the capability to offer a bet like this, the parlay is dependent on the bettor doing the legwork.

There is a law on the books allowing parlays in CA but I am not sure if the option is still made available.

[EMD4ME]

Sorry PA nation. I was away as I was tied up tending to "life" and after checking out the NYRA races earlier this week, I knew there wasn't much available to play in the "almost guaranteed parlay" we were discussing.

However, there is 1 play that "fits", very chalky but again we're not looking to score, we're just looking to compound high probability/very low variance picks.

Belmont Race 3:

$300 Place 7. Only wager for today. If Lubash "places" we will parlay (the expected return) again another day as I don't like anything else for a parlay today.

Rail seemed to be extremely negative again yesterday, so I'm staying away from Dirt races.

Starting Bankroll $2000. 1st bet $300 (which is pending).

Have fun rooting against/or for along the way :lol:

[ebcorde]

don't think you'll get 9-5. maybe 6-5 with the 8 and 1 close behind. and two bombs laying close 5,4 and the 6 has ML of 8/5 with No Rider. I don't like the 6 but the oddsmaker likes him alot. He'll have to run his A off. I just listed 3/4 of the field. lol

you have big stones my friend Good luck. I did put him down as a single, so I'm in the same boat. But not $200.

[chenoa]

Sorry PA nation. I was away as I was tied up tending to "life" and after checking out the NYRA races earlier this week, I knew there wasn't much available to play in the "almost guaranteed parlay" we were discussing.

However, there is 1 play that "fits", very chalky but again we're not looking to score, we're just looking to compound high probability/very low variance picks.

Belmont Race 3:

$300 Place 7. Only wager for today. If Lubash "places" we will parlay (the expected return) again another day as I don't like anything else for a parlay today.

Rail seemed to be extremely negative again yesterday, so I'm staying away from Dirt races.

Starting Bankroll $2000. 1st bet $300 (which is pending).

Have fun rooting against/or for along the way :lol:


Good luck, may the horse be with you!!!

[EMD4ME]

I wanted to cancel as soon as he was acting up at the gate and went from 1/1 to 3/2 but didn't.... :bang:

Updated bankroll $1700

Down $300 for the "time period".

[ultracapper]

Even to 3/2 at Belmont at the gate? You weren't the only one thinking of cancelling, but maybe the only one that didn't. That's quite a move at Belmont, and it isn't a bunch of money going on the other horses. That's cancellation city.

[RunDustyRun]

what I would like to know is why J Ortiz took the :1: back when he was the only speed in the race and was cutting back....guess he only makes the lead when Irad is in the race...

[EMD4ME]

Even to 3/2 at Belmont at the gate? You weren't the only one thinking of cancelling, but maybe the only one that didn't. That's quite a move at Belmont, and it isn't a bunch of money going on the other horses. That's cancellation city.

I noticed it as the last horse was loading. I had no time to cancel and write on here that I am cancelling as I'm sure everyone would've questioned if I got my cancel posted on time.

Whatever, crap happens. Not detered at all :)

[EMD4ME]

Starting parlay #2, multi track wager...

I'm alive on a cold punch double races 5 & 6 (3 to the 7). Have bet Dettifoss in 2 straight. Hoping today is the day he gets over his gate issues/psychological issues LOL.

$50 win 7 to start Parlay #2. He's a win or out type of horse with his insane gate behavior.

More than likely, will parlay to Emerald or Hastings after this. We'll see.

[EMD4ME]

what I would like to know is why J Ortiz took the :1: back when he was the only speed in the race and was cutting back....guess he only makes the lead when Irad is in the race...

Maybe today was the day to "experiment" LOL?

[EMD4ME]

Starting parlay #2, multi track wager...

I'm alive on a cold punch double races 5 & 6 (3 to the 7). Have bet Dettifoss in 2 straight. Hoping today is the day he gets over his gate issues/psychological issues LOL.

$50 win 7 to start Parlay #2. He's a win or out type of horse with his insane gate behavior.

More than likely, will parlay to Emerald or Hastings after this. We'll see.


Collected $242.50 on $50 to win on Dettifoss. + 192.50. We'll see where and when we'll parlay that.

Starting Bankroll $2000
Current Bankroll $1650

$242.50 hovering around, waiting to be parlayed or cashed.

[ultracapper]

I noticed it as the last horse was loading. I had no time to cancel and write on here that I am cancelling as I'm sure everyone would've questioned if I got my cancel posted on time.

Whatever, crap happens. Not detered at all :)

Oh, hell no. Everybody here knows shit happens even with the very best plays. Should have just cancelled the real money and then just let it go here. Can't let one like that bother you for even a heartbeat.

[letswastemoney]

what I would like to know is why J Ortiz took the :1: back when he was the only speed in the race and was cutting back....guess he only makes the lead when Irad is in the race...
Jose Ortiz does this more often than other jockeys.

Ex. Samraat in the Belmont, Itsagoodtendollars, etc.

It's best to just be skeptical when he's on a speed horse, rather than assume he will go for the lead. I've never liked him too much because of this.

[EMD4ME]

I'm tempted to parlay it to the 5 in race 8. Very sneaky play.....

We'll do this....Of the $292.50 pending, we're betting $20 to win. $42 to place on the 5, Saythreehailmary's.

Saythreehailmary's was on a dead rail last time, got shuffled behind a dead horse and was doing real well last time. Had a super gallop out last time despite all the issues.

In his only Turf Race, he was ridden by the legendary T Rice. Although I despise M Franco, the jock switch is a move up.

[dilanesp]

Good luck EMD. i think it is great whenever someone puts their bets up for public scrutiny, whatever my strategic criticism.

[Stillriledup]

I'm tempted to parlay it to the 5 in race 8. Very sneaky play.....

We'll do this....Of the $292.50 pending, we're betting $20 to win. $42 to place on the 5, Saythreehailmary's.

Saythreehailmary's was on a dead rail last time, got shuffled behind a dead horse and was doing real well last time. Had a super gallop out last time despite all the issues.

In his only Turf Race, he was ridden by the legendary T Rice. Although I despise M Franco, the jock switch is a move up.

That was an interesting pick, looking to beat all the 'tea cup' horses she was the only stranger in there. Back to dirt for her.

[EMD4ME]

I'm tempted to parlay it to the 5 in race 8. Very sneaky play.....

We'll do this....Of the $292.50 pending, we're betting $20 to win. $42 to place on the 5, Saythreehailmary's.

Saythreehailmary's was on a dead rail last time, got shuffled behind a dead horse and was doing real well last time. Had a super gallop out last time despite all the issues.

In his only Turf Race, he was ridden by the legendary T Rice. Although I despise M Franco, the jock switch is a move up.

I overstated my "pending balance" up above. Meant to type $242.50, not $292.50. Nevertheless.

Saythreehailmary's couldnt take advantage of a pocket trip at 19/1.

Minus $62 for that race. $180.50 still pending/floating.

We'll see where that money will go.

Starting Bankroll $2000
Current Bankroll $1650

Floating/Pending $180.50

[EMD4ME]

That was an interesting pick, looking to beat all the 'tea cup' horses she was the only stranger in there. Back to dirt for her.

And I will be ready........ going 1M on Dirt :)

I never mind losing at 19/1...Just hope I get 5/1 next time on dirt.

[EMD4ME]

Good luck EMD. i think it is great whenever someone puts their bets up for public scrutiny, whatever my strategic criticism.

Thanks dilanesp. We'll see where the public ride takes us LOL.

I just hope VIC comes back, it's nice to have him around.