PA Derby & Cotillion

[Bigadam119]

I know the 3 y.o. Fillies are weak this year, but the Cotillion field looks to be the best group together since the Oaks. PA Derby filed looks decent as well... What do you think?

[Stillriledup]

Refresh my memory, didnt this Pa Derby day last year have a gold rail and the track was 'changed' for this specific day?

[taxicab]

I know the 3 y.o. Fillies are weak this year, but the Cotillion field looks to be the best group together since the Oaks. PA Derby filed looks decent as well... What do you think?
A cool million{and a Gr.1 to boot}for a race restricted to 3yo Fillies in late September.
The owners/trainers entered in this one Saturday must be in heaven.
The gauging Parx takeout forces me away from the windows.
It should be a decent enough race to watch,perhaps a BC Distaff runner or two will exit the Cotillion.

[Redboard]

I'll be there. Looks like a very good card, even without AP. I guess him not showing has attracted more interest from the top trainers. I'll be playing win and ex. PARX’s WPS and exacta takeout are similar to everyone else's. Stay away from the other exotics though.

[letswastemoney]

Refresh my memory, didnt this Pa Derby day last year have a gold rail and the track was 'changed' for this specific day?With so many people watching, it's difficult to believe there will ever be a "dead rail" on Penn. Derby day, as so many Parx observers believe there is on a regular basis.

I'd bet on another gold rail, or at least a fair one.

[cj]

With so many people watching, it's difficult to believe there will ever be a "dead rail" on Penn. Derby day, as so many Parx observers believe there is on a regular basis.

I'd bet on another gold rail, or at least a fair one.

It is usually fine on PA Derby day, not to mention the dead rail thing is not as common as some pretend.

[Robert Fischer]

Frosted will be exciting to watch, but he will be well bet.

He really needs to let others do the dirty work up ahead and then capitalize.

Gimme Da Lute is very strong here. If Mr. Z can't make take the wind out of his sails, Gimme Da Lute will be tough to beat and will offer halfway decent value (5/2-7/2?).

[classhandicapper]

There are so many horses in that race that are better than they look on paper I don't see any way I can play it other than triples and supers.

[cj]

There are so many horses in that race that are better than they look on paper I don't see any way I can play it other than triples and supers.


The pools with a 30% rake? Good luck with that!

[Tom]

A long time ago, the rail at Keystone (Parx a the time) was an automatic bet.
Blindly betting the #1 post showed a flat bet profit. Box the 1/2 exacta was even more so. We could only bet on Tuesdays, but I made more money never looking at a PP in one day than I did the other 6 at Aqueduct.

[cj]

A long time ago, the rail at Keystone (Parx a the time) was an automatic bet.
Blindly betting the #1 post showed a flat bet profit. Box the 1/2 exacta was even more so. We could only bet on Tuesdays, but I made more money never looking at a PP in one day than I did the other 6 at Aqueduct.

Really cold days were the best!

[thespaah]

The pools with a 30% rake? Good luck with that!
30%....On so many levels that number with a % behind it just looks evil...
If it were a rate of interest, it is seen on the "buy here, pay here" used car lot or in an alley in a dodgy neighborhood.
30% takeout is just criminal......I would not be shocked if in PA the affected pools are among the smallest percapita in the US....

[Tom]

Really cold days were the best!

Gil Puentes used to take state bred horses down there and crack for boxcars when you could only bet through OTB. I caught three huge payoffs with that move after spotting one go down. I forget the details now, but but he ran them in NY and then went down to Philly and dropped them.

I used to take Tuesday afternoons off just to go to OTB and have my best day of the week.

The good old days.

[Bigadam119]

It looks like Gimme Da Lute is out of the race.

[Robert Fischer]

It looks like Gimme Da Lute is out of the race.

Wow.

Shuffle of the cards...


That change has to help :10:Mr. Z. I'm a fan, but not a fanatic and Mr. Z is a little bit 'cheap' IMO.
Mr. Z remains a key for :3:Frosted if we are to see his breakout performance.
The 'Lute scratch also should open the door for a couple others; :2:Island Town beat up allowance level foes in the Smarty Jones prep. His style fits right into the vacant spot left by the scratch,
:5: Made From Lucky now becomes the sexy alternative to Frosted.

[Redboard]

I'm liking :2: Island Town 10/1, as a horse for the course. He's three for his last four and two of those wins were from the two hole.

[ubercapper]

The PA Derby happens to be the Equibase/ABR Weekly Feature race. If anyone is interested here's my analysis:

http://www.equibase.com/analysis/091915preanalysis.cfm

Top 3 contenders are:
Iron Fist
Gimme Da Lute
Madefromlucky

Taking a stand against Frosted but may use him in exactas and trifectas in 2nd and 3rd.

[classhandicapper]

The pools with a 30% rake? Good luck with that!

The alternative is about 5 win bets. :lol:

[Stillriledup]

The alternative is about 5 win bets. :lol:

Or a rebate.

[castaway01]

The PA Derby happens to be the Equibase/ABR Weekly Feature race. If anyone is interested here's my analysis:

http://www.equibase.com/analysis/091915preanalysis.cfm

Top 3 contenders are:
Iron Fist
Gimme Da Lute
Madefromlucky

Taking a stand against Frosted but may use him in exactas and trifectas in 2nd and 3rd.

Gimme Da Lute scratched. Certainly changes the pace scenario.

[reckless]

Gil Puentes used to take state bred horses down there and crack for boxcars when you could only bet through OTB. I caught three huge payoffs with that move after spotting one go down. I forget the details now, but but he ran them in NY and then went down to Philly and dropped them.

I used to take Tuesday afternoons off just to go to OTB and have my best day of the week.

The good old days.

He got a good price because he often ran the horse with Royston Henry (then an unknown) as the listed trainer.

He was just unknown to the general public at that time because Roy Henry worked for many years as the stable foreman for Puentes and owner Murray Garren in New York before going out on his own at Liberty Bell and later, Keystone/Phila. Park.

Yes, Tom, they were good old days in many, many ways.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Gimme Da Lute scratched. Certainly changes the pace scenario.

Yep, that is a huge scratch.

Like the :9: Upstart. Doesn't have to chase after American Pharoah this time around and should be sitting a perfect stalking trip on a moderate pace.

[Redboard]

Gimme Da Lute scratched. Certainly changes the pace scenario.

Yea. That’s a huge scratch.

I just noticed, looking at the Bris, that :1: War Story 20/1 has a 131 LP in his last race, the WV Derby. That’s a big number. If he rides the rail and makes a run, he could be worth a shot, (especially if you’re playing five horse).

[Ocala Mike]

What Redboard said - getting a vibe on the :1: , WAR STORY.

[castaway01]

What Redboard said - getting a vibe on the :1: , WAR STORY.

Obviously the horse has no chance because I also like him, especially if you get anything near 20-1.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Yea. That’s a huge scratch.

I just noticed, looking at the Bris, that :1: War Story 20/1 has a 131 LP in his last race, the WV Derby. That’s a big number. If he rides the rail and makes a run, he could be worth a shot, (especially if you’re playing five horse).

Having a seriously difficult time of accepting those numbers from the West Virginia Derby. They are so far outside of the norm for every horse that ran in that race, that I can't accept them as being legit.

[Stillriledup]

Gotta see how the track is playing, but I do like that island horse a bit, the one you guys are talking about. Parx has been known to favor wide closers on occasion but there's always a chance this a paved highway specifically altered for the 'big day' like many tracks have been known to do.

[ebcorde]

This card is much harder than Travers day.

HE FOOGING SCRATCHED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! War Story does look good
but he has no class to run with Frosted. Upstart might get back in the news.

PA DERBY
I only have one play that I feel comfortable with
Baffert Gimme da lute. -1 hoping the bettors go for Frosted, Upstart for better odds.

The COTILLION
I like a lot of Horses (7), I like the favorites the best 3,8. I''ll try to avoid it,


THE GALLANT BOB
plenty of B-teamers here, the 3,7 appear to be the ones that will take money.


I'm dumping my money on Gimme the Lute than take my Granddaughter to the zoo.

[rastajenk]

Or you could just take your granddaughter to the zoo.

[Robert Fischer]

Having a seriously difficult time of accepting those numbers from the West Virginia Derby. They are so far outside of the norm for every horse that ran in that race, that I can't accept them as being legit.

That was a weird race for me to try to read on paper.

The race fell apart approaching the turn, and the pace kind of collapsed a little bit while horses with run took over. However, on paper the pace was slow. If I strictly went with the Bris pace, I would upgrade the importance of :1:War Story's late close.

If you think :10:Mr. Z is going to collapse the pace today, with the top contenders staggering late, then I would be all over War Story. Otherwise we kind of know who War Story is by now. He can come up and get 3rd or 4th with a last-move.


:5:Made From Lucky ran well in the WVD... The biggest impression that I got from that race was :4:Iron Fist's epic hang job. Iron Fist and Mike Smith worked a very nice trip late, and absolutely nothing happened.

[ebcorde]

This card is much harder than Travers day.

HE FOOGING SCRATCHED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! War Story does look good
but he has no class to run with Frosted. Upstart might get back in the news.

PA DERBY
I only have one play that I feel comfortable with
Baffert Gimme da lute. -1 hoping the bettors go for Frosted, Upstart for better odds.

The COTILLION
I like a lot of Horses (7), I like the favorites the best 3,8. I''ll try to avoid it,


THE GALLANT BOB
plenty of B-teamers here, the 3,7 appear to be the ones that will take money.


I'm dumping my money on Gimme the Lute than take my Granddaughter to the zoo.


took all morning to find a better race. Now that Gimme the Lute is scratch, because of a nail per Dick Jeradi I don't have a Horse that I like in any of the stakes races. But I do see a nice race 6 I like the 6 to maybe key with the (3,5,4)

[letswastemoney]

Frosted could destroy the Penn Derby field. I already thought so even before Gimme Da Lute was scratched.

Upstart is making his final start of the year, and the connections have no reason to leave anything in the tank.

Those two horses competed against the best all year. It would be surprising if a West Virginia Derby horse that benefited from a closer bias upsets them.

Not betting though. Frosted is too popular.

[Redboard]

PA Derby
WIN/PLACE: 1,2
EXACTA BOX: 1,2,5

[Ocala Mike]

Motion/Rosario - PEACE AND WAR in the Cotillion. :7: W/P

[jefftune]

Having a seriously difficult time of accepting those numbers from the West Virginia Derby. They are so far outside of the norm for every horse that ran in that race, that I can't accept them as being legit.
The Brisnet numbers from Mountainer are always out of wack

[Lemon Drop Husker]

The Brisnet numbers from Mountainer are always out of wack

Yeah, but that one is just crazy out of whack.

[Tom]

So what is going on at Parx? Are they cancelled?
Not a sign of a PRX race in over an hour on TVG or HRTV.
Or are they just ignoring the races there today?

[cutchemist42]

Prx9 Cotillion

Looking at...

8- 2/1
3- 4/1
6- 10/1
7- 6/1

Edit-win on Pangburn

[cutchemist42]

Parx10 Pa Derby

3- 2/1
1- 10/1
5- 4/1
9- 6/1

[letswastemoney]

Now that I've seen how the track is playing...

:9: Upstart and :10: Mr. Z are my two choices.

If :3: Frosted can stay away from the rail, he might have a shot.

The rest of the field are simply in a lower class.

[raybo]

Not a lot of early speed here so Mr Z should get the lead, even from the outside post. But, there are a lot of horses that can press and keep the pace honest. Don't like Mr Z's chances against that pressure. Frosted of course, looks the best on paper, but after the Travers he may not be the same horse we've seen before, so I'm going against him (I would even if his odds were not low in this one). Upstart, IMO, is the next one on the list and this is his 3rd start after a layoff, for which the trainer does a good job. MadeFromLucky just doesn't impress me against this field. He's won some races but his overall numbers look too low to me. War Story looks like an also ran although his price will be very good. Still not worth the risk even at 20/1. Island Town is short on class but might be worth it at 15/1 or so.

I'll go with Upstart (at 7/2 or more) to run down Mr Z and beat Frosted and the others to the wire, in a hard fought slim victory. Frosted may not be in the money, just think he might not have his best game today.

[Tee]

:10: Mr Z gate to wire?

:1: War Story doing cleanup duty.


What's new - wrong speed horse for the runner-up spot.

[cutchemist42]

Win bet on the :1:

[Robert Fischer]

Frosted should win here.

Still some question marks.

Upstart could have a chance here if he is truly a G1 type of horse.

Go Frosted

[Robert Fischer]

That was a good race for Frosted. Did what he had to do, and finished well.

[raybo]

Well, Frosted went back to his Wood scenario and was pulled back early. Thought he would be more upfront in this one. The fractions were slower than I expected also, but that just makes Frosted's win more impressive. I had him ranked 2nd behind Upstart, in class, but he proved the best class today. Nice race by the winner. :ThmbUp:

[andtheyreoff]

Here's the replay of the race:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uy0-ngEyZkY

[cj]

126 TFUS for Frosted, 117 for I'm a Chatterbox.

[classhandicapper]

They finished very strongly.

[Tom]

106 Beyer.

How interesting.....

[Steve R]

126 TFUS for Frosted, 117 for I'm a Chatterbox.
How does that 126 compare with Frosted's Equibase 111 (3 points below the 24-year average) and his BSF 106 (equal to the 24-year-average)? My own figures put the race about 3 lengths behind the 17-year average.

[cj]

How does that 126 compare with Frosted's Equibase 111 (3 points below the 24-year average) and his BSF 106 (equal to the 24-year-average)? My own figures put the race about 3 lengths behind the 17-year average.

A rough guesstimate is that my figures are about +20 over Beyer these days, so we are pretty much in agreement.

As for Equibase, those figures are laughable. I don't see how a meaningful discussion of them is even possible.

As for long term averages, if you believe Beyer, all horses today are inferior. It used to be Timeform to Beyer was about 13 points, but it is now more like 20. A 120 Beyer has gone the way of the dinosaur, when 130s used to be possible. So in short, I don't put any stock in historical averages from Beyer.

[Steve R]

A rough guesstimate is that my figures are about +20 over Beyer these days, so we are pretty much in agreement.

As for Equibase, those figures are laughable. I don't see how a meaningful discussion of them is even possible.

As for long term averages, if you believe Beyer, all horses today are inferior. It used to be Timeform to Beyer was about 13 points, but it is now more like 20. A 120 Beyer has gone the way of the dinosaur, when 130s used to be possible. So in short, I don't put any stock in historical averages from Beyer.
Beyer, Equibase, the Racing Post and I all seem to agree that the figures today are inferior to what they were a couple of decades ago as seen in the linked graphic, at least in the context of the combined three American classic races. I seriously doubt there is a conspiracy among the figure makers to make today's horses look bad in comparison. And I really don't understand why you would single out Equibase figures as "laughable" when, at least for this data set, their results are essentially identical to those of the others. Frankly, I find your dismissiveness of Beyer and Equibase rather odd when they and the others have all arrived independently at the same conclusion using different methodology. No offense intended, but if you disagree with that conclusion, perhaps you should re-examine your own methodology to determine the source of the discrepancy. In addition, the Ragozin figures for the Kentucky Derby alone since 1999 (I don't have access to the figures for the other American classics) show the identical trend as the others do for the combined classics.

U.S. Classic Speed Figures Over Time (http://www.chef-de-race.com/images/classic_figs.jpg)

[cj]

Beyer, Equibase, the Racing Post and I all seem to agree that the figures today are inferior to what they were a couple of decades ago as seen in the linked graphic, at least in the context of the combined three American classic races. I seriously doubt there is a conspiracy among the figure makers to make today's horses look bad in comparison. And I really don't understand why you would single out Equibase figures as "laughable" when, at least for this data set, their results are essentially identical to those of the others. Frankly, I find your dismissiveness of Beyer and Equibase rather odd when they and the others have all arrived independently at the same conclusion using different methodology. No offense intended, but if you disagree with that conclusion, perhaps you should re-examine your own methodology to determine the source of the discrepancy. In addition, the Ragozin figures for the Kentucky Derby alone since 1999 (I don't have access to the figures for the other American classics) show the identical trend as the others do for the combined classics.

U.S. Classic Speed Figures Over Time (http://www.chef-de-race.com/images/classic_figs.jpg)

I could point out numerous examples of Equibase figures that are borderline insane. How about this link to Equibase for the fastest 3yo of 2015:

http://www.equibase.com/static/statistics/eleaders.html#3M

I see 11 3yos listed and no American Pharoah. Are you seriously going to use those as any kind of barometer? Get out of here with that.

I'll add that long before I was affiliated with Timeform, I promoted them well above Racing Post with my customers. I was very disappointed in comparing the performance of the ratings when DRF switched from Timeform to Racing Post. I'm sure that can be found in these pages if you search far back enough. So while biased now obviously, I wasn't back then at all. I just wanted the best ratings for overseas shippers and Timeform won that battle hands down.

I am not dismissive of Beyer figures at all. I have a lot of respect for them. I just think they are a poor tool to compare horses historically. I'm far from alone in that thought. Check Thorograph and Timeform, for example. They are both highly respected and don't have horses suddenly winning G1s with allowance or high priced claiming race figures.

I'll be blunt, if my figures had allowance horses of the 90s faster than the 2015 Triple Crown winner, I'd be concerned. I'm not concerned when the horse that was as fast as any 3yo in years on my numbers wins the Triple Crown. Why should I be? I do know I can't win money worrying about whether a horse from 1982 can beat a horse from 2015. I don't even care. However, when horses of similar accomplishments are rated vastly different, I think that is a problem worth exploring.

[classhandicapper]

I have more information on the subject to share.

I have been looking at the figures for the highest level MSW races through Graded Stakes races since the 90s. I left claimers out because inflation has an impact on claiming prices - which means a 25K claimer from 20 years ago is not the same thing as a 25K claimer now to begin with. So they shouldn't run the same figures. MSW through Graded stakes should be relatively the same unless there are changes within the class structure, changes in drug policy, changes in the quality of the horses in general etc...

We KNOW there have been changes in drug policy and testing over the last few years. That probably accounts for some of it.

“It is noteworthy that Kentucky and New York began formal testing for bicarbonate loading, or ‘milkshaking,’ in 2005, and in 2008 the use of anabolic steroids was prohibited in racehorses.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/othersports/american-thoroughbreds-are-no-longer-bred-to-go-the-distance-in-the-belmont-stakes/2014/06/03/0dfb13ac-eb11-11e3-9f5c-9075d5508f0a_story.html

So horses like Rachel, Zenyatta, Blame and others were running in the post steroid era. You probably can't compare them to horses that were running on steroids or some undetectable drugs, at least from a figure point of view.

Second, it doesn't appear that the figures for all horses are declining. The figures for TOP horses have been declining, but the figures for races like MSW and possibly NW1 ALW have been getting FASTER. Overall, the figures are flattening out. We are just noticing the top because they are higher profile.

My theory is that trainers like Pletcher, Baffert and others crank their horses up much sooner these days than trainers did years ago. So they come out running much faster figures early in their careers and move up the ladder much faster now than they used to. On some level, that may be flattening out the top figures a bit and underrating how good these lightly raced horse are at that stage. (I'd explain why but it would be a long technical explanation and no one would care anyway).

I think:

1. Changes in drugs and drug testing possibly explains some if not most of the drift down in the last 7 years (steroids).

2. We have smaller crops now. So maybe there has been a small decline in quality even though we still breed the best to the best in the same quantity. We may not be getting as many stars like CA Chrome where the pedigree is nothing special.

3. Some of it may be figure drift because the class structure is changing.

4. If the tracks are deeper and more tiring than they used to be (which I believe they are), we may be seeing some flattening of the figures along the lines of what we saw when synthetic tracks were popular. The paces are a tad slower and the jockeys a tad less aggressive than years ago to compensate for the different tracks. That makes it harder for the really elite horses to run really big figures.

5. Other??

[cj]

1. Changes in drugs and drug testing possibly explains some if not most of the drift down in the last 7 years (steroids).

2. We have smaller crops now. So maybe there has been a small decline in quality even though we still breed the best to the best in the same quantity. We may not be getting as many stars like CA Chrome where the pedigree is nothing special.

3. Some of it may be figure drift because the class structure is changing.

4. If the tracks are deeper and more tiring than they used to be (which I believe they are), we may be seeing some flattening of the figures along the lines of what we saw when synthetic tracks were popular. The paces are a tad slower and the jockeys a tad less aggressive than years ago to compensate for the different tracks. That makes it harder for the really elite horses to run really big figures.

5. Other??

Just a few comments on the above:

1) This is a methodology issue. It can easily accounted for if the figure maker chooses to do so. If not, figures will shrink. It isn't a big deal unless you want to make historical comparisons.

2) This could be a small part of it, but I doubt it is much of it.

3) Definitely.

4) A slower track should actually make it easier for better horses to differentiate themselves over slower horses, not compress them. But the pace part probably counteracts that. If Horse A is 10 lengths better than Horse B on a very fast track, he'll likely be more than 10 lengths better on a slower track.

5) Horses are being bred for speed more than ever. I prefer my speed charts to equate distances based on how horses run today, not how they ran in 1970. I think that is a big part of the figure drift with Beyer figures. This can have negative betting effects when it comes to horses turning back in distance and horses stretching out in my opinion.

[Redboard]

A few final thoughts about the PA derby.

AP took home $270k in the Travers. He could of gotten twice that just for showing up at PARX.

I hope Lezcano took notes from Rosario last Saturday about how to ride Frosted. No way he should have come in third in the Travers. Cost his connections $120k, which was the difference between second and third place.

The win by Frosted has put a different light on his BCC chances, if he enters. He’ll get some significant action. You won’t see him as high as 15-1, maybe 8-1 or 7-1(depending on if the big four show up).

[cj]

A few final thoughts about the PA derby.

AP took home $270k in the Travers. He could of gotten twice that just for showing up at PARX.

I hope Lezcano took notes from Rosario last Saturday about how to ride Frosted. No way he should have come in third in the Travers. Cost his connections $120k, which was the difference between second and third place.

The win by Frosted has put a different light on his BCC chances, if he enters. He’ll get some significant action. You won’t see him as high as 15-1, maybe 8-1 or 7-1(depending on if the big four show up).

Frosted was ridden in the Travers to win. How can bettors have a problem with that? If he sits back and tries to make a run, he is basically conceding the race to American Pharoah and trying to get second. Is that what we really want in "races"?

[porchy44]

[QUOTE=Redboard]
I hope Lezcano took notes from Rosario last Saturday about how to ride Frosted. QUOTE]

That's a good one!

[Robert Fischer]

Frosted was ridden in the Travers to win. How can bettors have a problem with that? If he sits back and tries to make a run, he is basically conceding the race to American Pharoah and trying to get second. Is that what we really want in "races"?

Good post.

Godolphin isn't owning horses so that when they get a horse like Frosted, they can be a 'sparring partner' for an American Pharoah. They believe they have a chance to win and they are going to go for it, even if it isn't the most conservative strategy for purse earnings.

[Tom]

Rules of Racing:

When AP is not in the race, you can get Black Type.

So what do the doubters say about AP now?
The horse who lost the duel came back to win big.
What about the horse who won the duel?

[classhandicapper]

Frosted was ridden in the Travers to win. How can bettors have a problem with that? If he sits back and tries to make a run, he is basically conceding the race to American Pharoah and trying to get second. Is that what we really want in "races"?

IMO, he had less of a chance of winning the way he was ridden.

Assuming they both ran their typical "A" race, if Frosted sat off AP and allowed him to walk on the lead, he had almost no chance of winning.

Assuming they both ran their typical "A" race and they battled as they did, Frosted was going to lose that pace battle every single time and in most cases cost himself a placing also. That's what happened.

IMO, his only chance to win was to stay close and keep him honest, but not pressure him to the point that he was using his own horse. That way, if either Frosted ran a much improved race or AP had an off day he had a shot. If not, he finishes second.

If Frosted had a great day or AP had an off day and he did what he did in the Travers, then he would have won the pace battle but probably still lost the race.

[classhandicapper]

4) A slower track should actually make it easier for better horses to differentiate themselves over slower horses, not compress them. But the pace part probably counteracts that.


IMO, it's the pace.

IMO the pace adjustments and lower levels of aggression the jockeys make on some surfaces (or even some days) make an impact on the final times of top horses. We saw that on synthetic and we see it on turf also. A truly top horse will use a faster pace as a springboard to a faster final time (as long as it's not too extreme). But if we are getting fewer of those springboard paces, we will get fewer really fast figures from the very best horses. That tweaks the average at the top down.

[classhandicapper]

5) Horses are being bred for speed more than ever. I prefer my speed charts to equate distances based on how horses run today, not how they ran in 1970.

I agree that's an issue.

I think Beyer even concedes that horses in the US can't put up big 12F figures anymore in part because of breeding (as well as the other issues from that article). So you have to know that to equate the performances better.

I do know that the charts Beyer uses now are not the same as the ones he published years ago, especially as the distances stretch out.

[Redboard]

IMO, he had less of a chance of winning the way he was ridden.

......
If Frosted had a great day or AP had an off day and he did what he did in the Travers, then he would have won the pace battle but probably still lost the race.

You're exactly right, except for your last part. There’s no doubt in my mind that he would have won the Travers with Rosario aboard. I think we can all agree that AP was not the same horse he was in his last few races. If Frosted ran the way he did in the PA Derby, he could have very well caught him, or at the very least got 2nd.

From Equibase:

Travers
“Frosted tracked AP while in the two-path on the first turn, inched closer at the three-quarter pole to increase the pressure, drew even at the half mile pole, vied two or three wide while outside of AP on the final turn, turned into the stretch side-by-side with that rival, came under a right-handed whip inside the three-sixteenths, switched to the left-handed whip at the furlong marker then weakened while clear for the show.”

PA Derby
“….. Frosted raced just off the pace under rating, bided his time waiting for racing room leaving the backstretch, was steered to the outside and raced three-wide into the stretch, took the lead without the need for coaxing in early stretch and drew off under a strong hand-ride.”