Need Some Help

[Bigadam119]

I am on the younger side of the race fan population (26) and really like racing, but I am having a major issue with my love for the sport... I can't handicap, I've tried and tried but I haven't had a winning day in more than a year (very frustrating) Any tips you have from when you started that you could share would be much appreciated.

[no breathalyzer]

well what tracks do you play and what type of bets are you making.. gonna need some more info if you expect quality answers ect..

[ReplayRandall]

I am on the younger side of the race fan population (26) and really like racing, but I am having a major issue with my love for the sport... I can't handicap, I've tried and tried but I haven't had a winning day in more than a year (very frustrating) Any tips you have from when you started that you could share would be much appreciated.

How much were you trying to win, how big was your bankroll you bet with each day, and what kind of bets were you making?

[Bigadam119]

How much were you trying to win, how big was your bankroll you bet with each day, and what kind of bets were you making?

My Local track is Parx, I usually bet 5/6 races there and 5/6 races at whichever NYRA track is running. I usually have a bankroll of about $100 a day and bet mostly exactas.

[thaskalos]

My Local track is Parx, I usually bet 5/6 races there and 5/6 races at whichever NYRA track is running. I usually have a bankroll of about $100 a day and bet mostly exactas.
How do you currently select the horses that you wager on?

[Bigadam119]

How do you currently select the horses that you wager on?

I use the DRF for my past performances, look at the Beyers, class movements from the prior races. I am just now starting to understand how the race times and distances relate.

[ReplayRandall]

My Local track is Parx, I usually bet 5/6 races there and 5/6 races at whichever NYRA track is running. I usually have a bankroll of about $100 a day and bet mostly exactas.

IMO, go to Parx, but only bet simulcast races from other tracks-->No more bets on Parx. BTW, before I go on, what methods/products do you use when handicapping?.....Oops, I didn't see Thask's question and your answer before I posted.

[Bigadam119]

IMO, go to Parx, but only bet simulcast races from other tracks-->No more bets on Parx. BTW, before I go on, what methods/products do you use when handicapping?


I usually buy the DRF each day. I have been using class movement from the prior race and Beyers. I am starting to connect the dots on track Bias and times/distance.

[thaskalos]

I usually buy the DRF each day. I have been using class movement from the prior race and Beyers. I am starting to connect the dots on track Bias and times/distance.
Read Andy Beyer's book The Winning Horseplayer. You can buy a used hardcover copy from Amazon.com for only a couple of bucks. I think it's the ideal book for you at this stage of your horseplaying journey.

[no breathalyzer]

My Local track is Parx, I usually bet 5/6 races there and 5/6 races at whichever NYRA track is running. I usually have a bankroll of about $100 a day and bet mostly exactas.

well at least you are keeping it down to 2 tracks ... i wouldn't bet more then 2.. now learn as much as you can about these 2 tracks all in ins and outs and watch replays even if you don't fully understand how to interpret what you are watching yet. takes time. What i'm saying is just don't relay on speed figs... This one is important.. if too many fake wise guys and pin heads select you're horse simple just pass :lol: or look harder for another horse.

[Bigadam119]

Read Andy Beyer's book The Winning Horseplayer. You can buy a used hardcover copy from Amazon.com for only a couple of bucks. I think it's the ideal book for you at this stage of your horseplaying journey.


Sounds good to me, I will order and read.

[no breathalyzer]

Read Andy Beyer's book The Winning Horseplayer. You can buy a used hardcover copy from Amazon.com for only a couple of bucks. I think it's the ideal book for you at this stage of your horseplaying journey.

I never read this book.. don't plan on it either :lol:.. but seriously is it any good?. seems like it would be outdated

[raybo]

"Class movement" and "Beyers" is not nearly enough to be profitable, but if you haven't had a winning day in a year then something else is wrong. I suggest you stick with win bets until you learn to handicap better, betting the same amount for every bet. The reason I don't suggest playing the exacta is because there seems to be something terribly wrong with your selection process, otherwise you would surely have had at least one winning day in a whole year of betting. Betting to win only will allow you to focus all your efforts on one finishing position instead of two. If you can't select the winner enough times to have an occasional winning day then you are basically shooting blind with exacta betting, IMO.

As was mentioned already, Parx is not the best track in the world to learn how to handicap. There are many very experienced players who can't show a profit at Parx. I suggest playing a major track, like the NYRA tracks, where horses are of a better quality and generally hold their form longer. Form/physical condition is very important, and is also one of the toughest things to figure, especially as an inexperienced player, so playing a track with higher quality animals, who hold their form longer, will make the lack of knowledge and experience in determining current form less punishing.

Belmont fall meet is about to kick off (this Friday) so you're just in time to start learning to 'cap higher quality horses.

I have not read the Beyer book either, but if it explains the importance of pace, as it pertains to the validity of the Beyer speed figure, then that aspect alone will be of value to you. Having read most of Thaskalos' postings over the years, I suspect that pace is discussed in that book or he wouldn't be advising an inexperienced player to read it. Beyer, or any other speed figure cannot be used in isolation without determining how that figure was earned (pace analysis, etc.).

I suspect that because you mentioned class movements and Beyer speed figures, you are betting on horses with high Beyers and class drops, which will of course put you on low priced horses, who probably are declining in form or are not sound (almost a guarantee for losing money). I would much prefer a horse that is moving up in class to one that is moving down in class, all else being equal of course. While bias and times/distance can be of value, they are more suited to more advanced players. Even the best handicappers get those wrong often enough to ruin any chance they might have in being profitable.

Keep it basic, and focused, until you become more knowledgeable and experienced. And, KEEP RECORDS of all your bets so you can later determine where your strengths and weaknesses are, not dong so will keep you in the dark concerning where you are as a player (track, surface, distance, class, etc..).

[Dr Gonzo]

I am on the younger side of the race fan population (26) and really like racing, but I am having a major issue with my love for the sport... I can't handicap, I've tried and tried but I haven't had a winning day in more than a year (very frustrating) Any tips you have from when you started that you could share would be much appreciated.

Hi Bigadam119.

You're getting a lot of good advice in this thread. Pace and speed figures are important but unfortunately, easily accessible to the racing public. While top flight players may be able to profit from them, a newer player may have difficulty trying to prosper with their use.

My biggest scores over the years came from studying trainers. Some of them repeat winning patterns that produce nice mutuals. While some of this info is available in Premium PP's, much of the good stuff is not. http://www.proghandicap.com sells trainer information for many major tracks. Right now, you can download Woodbine info for free, this way you can see if this window may be of help to you. (* I do not work for or have any financial interest in Progressive Handicapping *) I've found that trainer patterns work best at bush league tracks and you'd have to do the detective work on your own but your labor will pay off handsomely.

Once you learn the rudiments of handicapping, learn to make an odds line. I learned how to do this studying the the works of Mark Cramer. Only bet the overlays that your handicapping has pointed out.

There are many ways to attack handicapping. My ways may or may not suit you but I'd suggest giving them a good look.

Good luck.

Doc

[Bigadam119]

I wanted to say thank you for all of the advice given in this thread. I have orderd the book and will read it. I will be betting the Belmont fall need starting Saturday (my Friday night will consist of reading as much of the book as possible). Thank you again for the great advice!

[pandy]

I wanted to say thank you for all of the advice given in this thread. I have orderd the book and will read it. I will be betting the Belmont fall need starting Saturday (my Friday night will consist of reading as much of the book as possible). Thank you again for the great advice!

Something to keep in mind, particularly at Parx. It's important to recognize the track profile of every track you play. You mentioned that you are using class and Beyers to handicap Parx. Parx is a "sustained" style track. So is Belmont, most of the time.

Let's look at Parx. When I play Parx, I'm more interested in late pace figures than I am in speed figures. I also look for overlays and longshots from outside posts in sprints at Parx because a lot of the winners make a sweeping wide move on the far turn which is tough to do from post 1. And the rail is often dead at Parx, so horses from inside posts can get buried.

You methioned class, Beyers, exactas, but you left out something very important. How many favorites are you betting? Are you betting mostly "form" horses? In other words, obvious in-form horses that go off at less than 4-1 odds. How many longshots do you bet?

Right now with Parx having it's fall festival meet, it may be tougher to handicap than usual, but during the other meets it's really not a very tough track to play if you are keying sustained horses that are overlays.

Belmont, of course, is much different than Parx because there are a lot of wide open maiden races and extremely difficult turf races.

[Robert Fischer]

I am on the younger side of the race fan population (26) and really like racing, but I am having a major issue with my love for the sport... I can't handicap, I've tried and tried but I haven't had a winning day in more than a year (very frustrating) Any tips you have from when you started that you could share would be much appreciated.

You have to start with an understanding of the game.
How does the parimutuel system work?
How does a horse work?
How does a race work?
How does your psychology work when you bet on horses?

Then you have to go about applying that.

[Bigadam119]

Something to keep in mind, particularly at Parx. It's important to recognize the track profile of every track you play. You mentioned that you are using class and Beyers to handicap Parx. Parx is a "sustained" style track. So is Belmont, most of the time.

Let's look at Parx. When I play Parx, I'm more interested in late pace figures than I am in speed figures. I also look for overlays and longshots from outside posts in sprints at Parx because a lot of the winners make a sweeping wide move on the far turn which is tough to do from post 1. And the rail is often dead at Parx, so horses from inside posts can get buried.

You methioned class, Beyers, exactas, but you left out something very important. How many favorites are you betting? Are you betting mostly "form" horses? In other words, obvious in-form horses that go off at less than 4-1 odds. How many longshots do you bet?

Right now with Parx having it's fall festival meet, it may be tougher to handicap than usual, but during the other meets it's really not a very tough track to play if you are keying sustained horses that are overlays.

Belmont, of course, is much different than Parx because there are a lot of wide open maiden races and extremely difficult turf races.

Thanks for the tip. I was avoiding the outside posts in sprints as I thought the wide trip might be an issue. I rarely had any confidence that I could pick a longshot so I was sticking to lower priced horses on top of the exacta.

[cutchemist42]

Read Andy Beyer's book The Winning Horseplayer. You can buy a used hardcover copy from Amazon.com for only a couple of bucks. I think it's the ideal book for you at this stage of your horseplaying journey.

Similar situation, started liking horse racing at 27, took that book out from the library and loved it for an intro. Read another Beyer book as well that was good.

[ebcorde]

I wanted to say thank you for all of the advice given in this thread. I have orderd the book and will read it. I will be betting the Belmont fall need starting Saturday (my Friday night will consist of reading as much of the book as possible). Thank you again for the great advice!


first of all DRF , Brisnet and all the paid services at the track that give you top picks will give you a STEADY diet of LOSERS.

Augen is pretty good on this site. The sheets, Thorograh are good.


But what I like are two things.

1. Look at Avg/Best Pace figures. key figs are 4f and late pace fig. And Pace figure at the turn for home ( 4f, 6f) usually the top 2-3 win most of the races. That might only eliminate half the field.
on Turf I find the Horses with the better early speed and a decent closing speed wins a lot of races. do not know why except maybe the Jockey knows when to use that speed late.

2. Avg speed combined with above. and with non maidens knowing the full potential or the Horse best speed figure is a plus.

3. For stakes races like Breeder's cup. Horse that do well are at their peak
so the last race or next to last will tell a lot.

4. Total analysis of workouts , very key with maidens example if a Horse workouts are slow in comparison to the rest of the field throw him out.
The only exception I find is the long races 9f or higher . does not matter and for short races do not take a Horse whose workouts are slow in a 5f-5.5 race.

5. tons of stuff for non-maidens I like looks at how the Horse was bet in previous races. If I see a Horse consistently going off at 15-1 and losing and
there he is today going off at 13-1. I'm not betting him. And there is the Class, I like looking at the highest class level they've performed at. ex: in a 10 horse race at 25k if 6 horses ran at 30k and 4 ran at 10k. I'll most likely throw out the 10k's


I write a little software I use this algorithm
res = ((pace_at_turn+ Avg_Speed) *10) + (tot_avg_ep2 + tot_avg_ep4 + tot_avg_ls+ tot_highest_ep2 + tot_highest_ep4 + tot_highest_ls + Bris_rating + Best_bris);

[Ocala Mike]

Comprehensive handicapping may not be for you at first.

My advice would be to try and stick to certain "angles" for play at first - a comprehensive approach could be "grown into" as you develop knowledge.

Some angles?

Turf to dirt.
Plays off a claim (certain trainers).
Second-time starters in maiden races (again, certain trainers).
Dropdowns.
Technical analysis of DD and P/3 will- pays to spot "live" longshots (not as difficult as it sounds, believe me).

Good luck in your quest.

[ebcorde]

with Math alone you can win most of your races. I assure you that is true. Turf and the Jockey is the wildcard, On turf speed rules if it's used properly, the trick is finding it. Then you have right trip, some Jockey's are much better at turf, so betting the Jock is not a terrible idea on Turf or distance.

and some Jockey's can't ride, they run their Horses up the other Horses butts, having to slam the breaks on, losing all the speed. Or my favorite trapped on the rail, figuring it out too late, then they switch to the outside. way too late
hence the best horse gets 3rd-4th.

[ebcorde]

pick one track, use jockey/trainer combinations. I would suggest NY/CAL tracks not Parx, high takeout and inconsistent Horses at Parx. I'm from the area and started at Penn Nat when Scott Lake was winning at 35% there. . I suggest NY tracks

[pandy]

Comprehensive handicapping may not be for you at first.

My advice would be to try and stick to certain "angles" for play at first - a comprehensive approach could be "grown into" as you develop knowledge.

Some angles?

Turf to dirt.
Plays off a claim (certain trainers).
Second-time starters in maiden races (again, certain trainers).
Dropdowns.
Technical analysis of DD and P/3 will- pays to spot "live" longshots (not as difficult as it sounds, believe me).

Good luck in your quest.




I think Ocala Mike makes a very good point. To get good at Comprehensive Handicapping can take a long time and depending on how sharp your analytical skills are, the study of various handicapping factors helps very few people. It gives you a keen understanding of the sport but it doesn't actually help most people win. Specializing or keying in on certain factors is a more prudent approach.

The Beyer book that's been mentioned is an excellent book and good read, but to get good at utilizing the skills in the book requires a certain amount of intuition. It's very subjective.


A lot of handicapping factors are pretty much a waste of time for most players. To learn how to improve your bottom line quickly, you have to narrow the focus.

[thaskalos]

A lot of handicapping factors are pretty much a waste of time for most players. To learn how to improve your bottom line quickly, you have to narrow the focus.

There is no "shortcut" to profitability...as far as I can see. Yes..."specialization" is a desirable quality -- and I am a "specialist" myself -- but the player cannot afford to remain ignorant of the whole...while he specializes in one of its parts. "Specialization" is "extra work"...not a "shortcut".

[ebcorde]

I think Ocala Mike makes a very good point. To get good at Comprehensive Handicapping can take a long time and depending on how sharp your analytical skills are, the study of various handicapping factors helps very few people. It gives you a keen understanding of the sport but it doesn't actually help most people win. Specializing or keying in on certain factors is a more prudent approach.

The Beyer book that's been mentioned is an excellent book and good read, but to get good at utilizing the skills in the book requires a certain amount of intuition. It's very subjective.


A lot of handicapping factors are pretty much a waste of time for most players. To learn how to improve your bottom line quickly, you have to narrow the focus.

This game is simple. 11 horse field, 11 possible results, simple math will easily get rid of some, or more than some. Races can be lost by bad trip, poor jockey decision, trainer tricks, ways that you can't factor in no matter what criteria you impose.

As with studying in College, The Math allows one to highlight the correct paragraphs you expect the professor to put on the test. Once that is complete than you factor in "hunch, subjective" plays or "odds" based plays from the remaining list. Nothing is perfect and there are always exceptions, so of course there will be occasions where intuition is the way to go. But if intuition becomes a sole rule, you're back to square one, confused , intuition will not work in every race. My definition of a intuition play is 20-1/100-1, A horse that makes almost No sense on paper to most people.
and I play them too. Most people don't like math so they discredit math in Horse racing

I watched that Horseplayers TV Show almost everyone was using software to assist them except John Conte. I think that's the way to go

[thaskalos]

with Math alone you can win most of your races. I assure you that is true.


When you make comments like these...then you have to back them up with adequate proof; your "assurance" is not enough. We are not kids here...

[ebcorde]

When you make comments like these...then you have to back them up with adequate proof; your "assurance" is not enough. We are not kids here...

if you say so then I'm wrong. it's all good

[raybo]

When you make comments like these...then you have to back them up with adequate proof; your "assurance" is not enough. We are not kids here...

Dang, and I was starting to feel younger, like 3rd grade - LOL. I agree, "Math" is very vague. While I use it all the time in my play, there are millions of ways to use math.

[thaskalos]

if you say so then I'm wrong. it's all good
You can't come here and claim that you are "winning more than half of your bets"...without expecting to be questioned, friend.

[Stillriledup]

I am on the younger side of the race fan population (26) and really like racing, but I am having a major issue with my love for the sport... I can't handicap, I've tried and tried but I haven't had a winning day in more than a year (very frustrating) Any tips you have from when you started that you could share would be much appreciated.

Think about the gambling end of the game, spend time thinking about structuring your bets and how to invest, learn the tote board and what it's trying to tell you.

[ebcorde]

You can't come here and claim that you are "winning more than half of your bets"...without expecting to be questioned, friend.

the quote you attribute to me. go ahead and question it, would not matter anyway , you are cemented in your opinion. yet you probably do use some sort of pace and speed figures but frown on Math?????.

Yes, there all kinds of math , non-linear transforms , M-distances for example are tailor made for Horse racing etc etc etc, what ever works for you.

Perhaps you were assuming I bet one horse per race and hit over 50%? really?

[Cratos]

This game is simple. 11 horse field, 11 possible results, simple math will easily get rid of some, or more than some. Races can be lost by bad trip, poor jockey decision, trainer tricks, ways that you can't factor in no matter what criteria you impose.

As with studying in College, The Math allows one to highlight the correct paragraphs you expect the professor to put on the test. Once that is complete than you factor in "hunch, subjective" plays or "odds" based plays from the remaining list. Nothing is perfect and there are always exceptions, so of course there will be occasions where intuition is the way to go. But if intuition becomes a sole rule, you're back to square one, confused , intuition will not work in every race. My definition of a intuition play is 20-1/100-1, A horse that makes almost No sense on paper to most people.
and I play them too. Most people don't like math so they discredit math in Horse racing

I watched that Horseplayers TV Show almost everyone was using software to assist them except John Conte. I think that's the way to go
I disagree that this game is simple if you define it in terms of handicapping the winning horse.

Take for instance your example of the 11 horse field and you are betting the exacta, there will be 55 combinations; not so simple.

Furthermore if you identify that in the 11 horse field the outcome can be influenced independently by each horse and each jockey then we have 22 influences that might impact the outcome of the race.

Also the handicapping in this game is not merely a math exercise, but a data analysis exercise where math is used in conjunction with science and intuition.

[ebcorde]

Think about the gambling end of the game, spend time thinking about structuring your bets and how to invest, learn the tote board and what it's trying to tell you.

I agree.

[thaskalos]

the quote you attribute to me. go ahead and question it, would not matter anyway , you are cemented in your opinion. yet you probably do use some sort of pace and speed figures but frown on Math?????.

Yes, there all kinds of math , non-linear transforms , M-distances for example are tailor made for Horse racing etc etc etc, what ever works for you.

Perhaps you were assuming I bet one horse per race and hit over 50%? really?

I don't hate math...and I do use some of it myself. But this game is much more than just a "math problem" waiting to be solved. There have been some very successful mathematicians in this game...but they possessed more than just a proficiency in "math", in order to become successful. We know this, because there have been even more mathematicians who tried out this game...and failed. William Quirin and Dick Mitchell were both academicians with advanced math and computer science degrees. Both wrote well-received handicapping books...and both have been credited with making important handicapping "discoveries" in this game. Alas...they both tried to make it as professional horseplayers...and both of them failed. Luckily...they both had teaching jobs at the university to fall back on.

Yes...as you say, "this is a simple game". But "simple" doesn't mean "easy".

[ebcorde]

I disagree that this game is simple if you define it in terms of handicapping the winning horse.

Take for instance your example of the 11 horse field and you are betting the exacta, there will be 55 combinations; not so simple.

Furthermore if you identify that in the 11 horse field the outcome can be influenced independently by each horse and each jockey then we have 22 influences that might impact the outcome of the race.

Also the handicapping in this game is not merely a math exercise, but a data analysis exercise where math is used in conjunction with science and intuition.

it's easier than being in Product development. I take 11 horses, using selected algorithms narrow it down to 4-5 horses. Watch the board and bet the 1-2 at the highest odds.

[thaskalos]

it's easier than being in Product development. I take 11 horses, using selected algorithms narrow it down to 4-5 horses. Watch the board and bet the 1-2 at the highest odds.
You narrow the field down to 4-5 horses...and you bet the 1-2 with the highest odds. And THAT'S how you win "more than half of your bets"? The higher-odds horses win that often for you?

[ebcorde]

I don't hate math...and I do use some of it myself. But this game is much more than just a "math problem" waiting to be solved. There have been some very successful mathematicians in this game...but they possessed more than just a proficiency in "math", in order to become successful. We know this, because there have been even more mathematicians who tried out this game...and failed. William Quirin and Dick Mitchell were both academicians with advanced math and computer science degrees. Both wrote well-received handicapping books...and both have been credited with making important handicapping "discoveries" in this game. Alas...they both tried to make it as professional horseplayers...and both of them failed. Luckily...they both had teaching jobs at the university to fall back on.

Yes...as you say, "this is a simple game". But "simple" doesn't mean "easy".

do poorly in the real world they tend to dwell on the search for truth and knowledge rather than making money. Spent many years in R&D
I don't expect the one perfect Horse every time. He's the fav , and he wins 30% of the time. Do you know what Mahalanobis distance is? All I want is an output that places the most Horses outside the M distance for the Race Type. Then I work with that small subset.

[Ocala Mike]

Take for instance your example of the 11 horse field and you are betting the exacta, there will be 55 combinations; not so simple.




Actually 110 possible exacta combinations, but we get your point.

[Tor Ekman]

Actually 110 possible exacta combinations, but we get your point.
I agree it's 110, but are they combinations or permutations? I think technically the exacta possibilities are permutations but that math class was a looong time ago.

[Cratos]

Actually 110 possible exacta combinations, but we get your point.
You are correct and that is the problem when an "old man" make calculations in his head.

[whodoyoulike]

You are correct and that is the problem when an "old man" make calculations in his head.

That's a good one ..... 11 x 10 = ??

[Cratos]

I agree it's 110, but are they combinations or permutations? I think technically the exacta possibilities are permutations but that math class was a looong time ago.
They are permutations because it is the distinct arrangement of the two numbers, For example the racetrack will payoff a 2-1 combination (assuming there is not a deadheat), but if the outcome was a 1-2 finish, it would be a loser.

However in the Quinella wagering it is a combination.

[Cratos]

That's a good one ..... 11 x 10 = ??
Sometimes age does yield diminishing returns.

[cutchemist42]

I will say that even after learning about replays/trips and the factor of pace, I really regret not being more careful about prices on horses and creating a line for myself. Basically, I bet too many races in the past where now, I learned to pass on races if Im not getting prices I like.

I think learning when to pass is a great skill, and this also relates to classifying the favourites as legit or not. Your biggest payoffs will be when you can get a bad fave out of the win/2nd position in an exacta.

[ebcorde]

I will say that even after learning about replays/trips and the factor of pace, I really regret not being more careful about prices on horses and creating a line for myself. Basically, I bet too many races in the past where now, I learned to pass on races if Im not getting prices I like.

I think learning when to pass is a great skill, and this also relates to classifying the favourites as legit or not. Your biggest payoffs will be when you can get a bad fave out of the win/2nd position in an exacta.

That is a lot of work. I used to do that ,took me about 1 hr to chart 2 replays of all the Horses in one race. If the Horse is far back he's not on the video. I stopped the year Mine that Bird won because He did nothing in the Sunland Derby and i was exhausted from looking at video.


Often the comments were not accurate compared to the video. And one could see improvements in Horses , subtle bursts of speed one would not see in the running lines

[MJC922]

Beyer's books are great to learn from but the game has changed a bit in the past 15 years. The pools are more volatile. Taking a step back and looking at it from a 50000 ft view, few people possess a long term edge which is more than a single tick in odds. That doesn't give you a warm fuzzy feeling when you see today how many ticks they actually move in the final minute including while they're still running around the course. In Pittsburg Phil's day you had fixed odds, it was a simple risk vs. reward calculation but it was like shooting at a stationary target, in the modern era we're still having to set the same probabilities but with only a guess at the reward-side and that 'guess' in the ADW era has become an increasingly wild one. I am not going to dispense advice other than a suggestion that whatever you're keyed into must have some intrinsic value, meaning it will probably have to be largely off the modern handicapper's radar.

[ebcorde]

Beyer's books are great to learn from but the game has changed a bit in the past 15 years. The pools are more volatile. Taking a step back and looking at it from a 50000 ft view, few people possess a long term edge which is more than a single tick in odds. That doesn't give you a warm fuzzy feeling when you see today how many ticks they actually move in the final minute including while they're still running around the course. In Pittsburg Phil's day you had fixed odds, it was a simple risk vs. reward calculation but it was like shooting at a stationary target, in the modern era we're still having to set the same probabilities but with only a guess at the reward-side and that 'guess' in the ADW era has become an increasingly wild one. I am not going to dispense advice other than a suggestion that whatever you're keyed into must have some intrinsic value, meaning it will probably have to be largely off the modern handicapper's radar.

exactly I agree 100% But Most everyone is using the same techniques.
I'm noticing big up and down moves. I think they're allowing them to cancel big bets.
moments before it goes off.

[pandy]

That is a lot of work. I used to do that ,took me about 1 hr to chart 2 replays of all the Horses in one race. If the Horse is far back he's not on the video. I stopped the year Mine that Bird won because mine He did nothing in the Sunland Derby and i was exhausted from looking at video.


I have a love/hate relationship with trip handicapping. Sure, when you see a horse had a rough trip, gets slammed at start, rushes up along a dead rail, gets checked in traffic on the turn, swings 7 wide turning the corner and is finishing gamely when he gets steadied by a drifting horse...the next time out you bet the horse and it wins. That's great. The problem is, the next 20 horses that have similar rough trips that you bet all lose.

Numbers seem much more reliable to me. I ran five tests on my website the past few months, all using nothing but some sort of pace ratings based on different segments of a horse's performance. Three of the five tests showed a profit including a new method I'm testing. Nothing else was used to handicap, no trainers, jockeys, posts, earnings, class, trips, bias, nothing but computer generated pace ratings.

[ultracapper]

I am on the younger side of the race fan population (26) and really like racing, but I am having a major issue with my love for the sport... I can't handicap, I've tried and tried but I haven't had a winning day in more than a year (very frustrating) Any tips you have from when you started that you could share would be much appreciated.

Play 6 races per day. Find the best horse you can in each of those races that is 5/1 or higher. Put $5 across the board on each one. $90 for the day. It won't be long, and you'll have a winning day. You'll catch a winner and a couple show finishers, or a couple place finishers, or some kind of combinations of cashable tickets, and it won't be long and you'll have a day that you get a return of $91 or more. BEFORE THE RACE STARTS, write down why you chose that horse. You MUST do this before the race goes off. Keeping these kinds of records are no good after the race has been run as it is impossible to not have your thoughts compromised by the results of the race. Keeping records of your reasoning before the race is the best records you can keep as it tells you why you've chosen that horse. As you start cashing tickets, whether they're winners or show finishers, you'll start seeing common threads running through your successful selections. Keep accounts of the returns on the different handicapping angles that are leading you to successful tickets. You've now built the very rudimentary foundation of your handicapping. Come back here around the first of the year and you'll be ready for the next step.

[ultracapper]

I am on the younger side of the race fan population (26) and really like racing, but I am having a major issue with my love for the sport... I can't handicap, I've tried and tried but I haven't had a winning day in more than a year (very frustrating) Any tips you have from when you started that you could share would be much appreciated.

Here's an angle you can start with.

This running line is an example for a 6f race with a field of 12.

1st call 7th by 4 1/2
2nd call 8th by 5
3rd call 6th by 6
Finish 4th by 6 1/2

The 1st call is after 1/4 mile, the 2nd is after a half mile, the 3rd call is after 5/8th (or at the 1/8th pole, one furlong from the finish line), and the 4th call is the finish line. In this example, the horse improved 2 positions between the 1/4 pole (2nd call) and the 1/8 pole (3rd call, or what we call the "stretch call"). He also improved 2 positions between the 1/8 pole and the finish. Look for horses that improve 2 positions either between the 2nd and 3rd call, or between the 3rd call and finish (In this example, the horse improved 2 positions between each of those calls), and at that call that the horse improved 2 positions or more, he must be in the first half of the field. Meaning in a 12 horse field, he must be in 6th place or better (In this example, the horse again qualifies at both intervals).

In order to put your $5 across the board on a horse, he must improve at least 2 positions in either one of those calls, be in the top half of the field at the call in which he improved 2 or more positions, MUST NEVER BE MORE THAN 8 LENGTHS BEHIND THE LEADER, and must be 5/1 or higher. If you stick to this, you're going to cash some tickets, and some of them can be pretty good. Don't be shy if the horse is 10/1 or 12/1 or even 15/1, as the place and show payoffs on horses in those price ranges can be very rewarding. What you're looking for is horses that are moving forward in the field at competitive times of the race. The lengths behind aren't that important, as long as the horse isn't too far behind, and 8 lengths is about as far back as you want to be anytime in most races.

Remember, this is extremely rudimentary stuff. I've hardly given you the map to the Holy Grail here. But there are some things here that you're going to focus on that will, one day, be some of the real good tools in your handicapping tool box.

[MJC922]

I have a love/hate relationship with trip handicapping. Sure, when you see a horse had a rough trip, gets slammed at start, rushes up along a dead rail, gets checked in traffic on the turn, swings 7 wide turning the corner and is finishing gamely when he gets steadied by a drifting horse...the next time out you bet the horse and it wins. That's great. The problem is, the next 20 horses that have similar rough trips that you bet all lose.

Numbers seem much more reliable to me. I ran five tests on my website the past few months, all using nothing but some sort of pace ratings based on different segments of a horse's performance. Three of the five tests showed a profit including a new method I'm testing. Nothing else was used to handicap, no trainers, jockeys, posts, earnings, class, trips, bias, nothing but computer generated pace ratings.

Sounds good.

[MJC922]

exactly I agree 100% But Most everyone is using the same techniques.
I'm noticing big up and down moves. I think they're allowing them to cancel big bets.
moments before it goes off.

Late cancellations are occurring, I'm convinced of that. Some of these 3/5 and 4/5 horses that drop to 1/5 while the race is running aren't legitimate 1/5 horses, they're legit 1/5 only after you have been allowed to watch the break and seen them clear off. There's a cancellation window of so many seconds that the typical player doesn't have access to. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.

[whodoyoulike]

I am on the younger side of the race fan population (26) and really like racing, but I am having a major issue with my love for the sport... I can't handicap, I've tried and tried but I haven't had a winning day in more than a year (very frustrating) Any tips you have from when you started that you could share would be much appreciated.


My Local track is Parx, I usually bet 5/6 races there and 5/6 races at whichever NYRA track is running. I usually have a bankroll of about $100 a day and bet mostly exactas.

You wouldn't want to use any tips from me from when I started (even if I could remember them). And, I don't have any tips for exacta betting. But, a tip I can provide to you is for you to gain an understanding of the differences between a track like Parx and a class "A" track. Something plain and simple as realizing the finishing times for the various distances will be very different between the two and there are many many more things to be aware during the running of a race. You may be playing too many races for your level of expertise.

Another tip is to watch hundreds (maybe even thousands) of replays. You're fortunate that replays are now readily available for FREE on the internet where the only cost is your time. If you do start to watch replays concentrate on certain tracks or racing circuits. When the tracks first began showing replays, I used to watch while getting dressed for work then while eating dinner at home and weekends etc. on a machine we called a VCR. Playbacks of certain portions of races wasn't easily done in the "olden days" as it is with the internet. Attempt to understand the pace(s) of different types of races and classes of horses.

[biggestal99]

How bout starting with a good angle. Only bet horses who are dropping in class and switching tracks if you want good prices they are there everyday, btw, you want the horse to have some really bad form so you can put a filter in about losing by 10 lengths or 5th or worse in their last race.

The no winning days in a year will be a remte memory.

Allan

[no breathalyzer]

trip handicapping is useless when the horse is too slow to begin with.. seems like people over look this fact

[Bigadam119]

Wow, the amount of advice I am getting is unbelievable and truly appreciated. I will take the tips and attempt to put them to work tomorrow. Unfortunately my Beyer book didn't come in today, but I think I have plenty of advice on here to draw from. Thanks to all who responded, I will report back tomorrow on how it goes. I'm not expecting this to be a quick fix, but I can talk about I used the advice.

[Bigadam119]

Here's an angle you can start with.

This running line is an example for a 6f race with a field of 12.

1st call 7th by 4 1/2
2nd call 8th by 5
3rd call 6th by 6
Finish 4th by 6 1/2

The 1st call is after 1/4 mile, the 2nd is after a half mile, the 3rd call is after 5/8th (or at the 1/8th pole, one furlong from the finish line), and the 4th call is the finish line. In this example, the horse improved 2 positions between the 1/4 pole (2nd call) and the 1/8 pole (3rd call, or what we call the "stretch call"). He also improved 2 positions between the 1/8 pole and the finish. Look for horses that improve 2 positions either between the 2nd and 3rd call, or between the 3rd call and finish (In this example, the horse improved 2 positions between each of those calls), and at that call that the horse improved 2 positions or more, he must be in the first half of the field. Meaning in a 12 horse field, he must be in 6th place or better (In this example, the horse again qualifies at both intervals).

In order to put your $5 across the board on a horse, he must improve at least 2 positions in either one of those calls, be in the top half of the field at the call in which he improved 2 or more positions, MUST NEVER BE MORE THAN 8 LENGTHS BEHIND THE LEADER, and must be 5/1 or higher. If you stick to this, you're going to cash some tickets, and some of them can be pretty good. Don't be shy if the horse is 10/1 or 12/1 or even 15/1, as the place and show payoffs on horses in those price ranges can be very rewarding. What you're looking for is horses that are moving forward in the field at competitive times of the race. The lengths behind aren't that important, as long as the horse isn't too far behind, and 8 lengths is about as far back as you want to be anytime in most races.

Remember, this is extremely rudimentary stuff. I've hardly given you the map to the Holy Grail here. But there are some things here that you're going to focus on that will, one day, be some of the real good tools in your handicapping tool box.

Found the closest horse to match this method in the 4th a Belmont. #5 Sail Ahoy

[HuggingTheRail]

Found the closest horse to match this method in the 4th a Belmont. #5 Sail Ahoy

Hope you played it.... :ThmbUp:

[pandy]

Found the closest horse to match this method in the 4th a Belmont. #5 Sail Ahoy


Very nice!

[no breathalyzer]

Found the closest horse to match this method in the 4th a Belmont. #5 Sail Ahoy


:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp: ;)

[KPMats10]

Read, read, read, read, read, read, read.

Practice what you read without risking cash until you start seeing results.

A good way to test your skill is playing cheap contests at sites like Derby Wars.

Forget exactas and trifectas and stick to win bets, doubles and pick 3's. It's easier to try and pick winners than a winner and a runner up.

A great book for you to start with is Brad Free's Handicapping 101. That's a great text for a rookie and an experienced horseplayer. I recently re-read it myself.

Quinn's The Handicappers Condition Book will teach you a lot about class handicapping and how to interpret the differences in class in a clear and simple to read format. I also recently reread that one and that's helped strengthen my game, especially playing maiden races.

As you get more advanced, you can start experimenting with different angles and keep reading to gain more knowledge.

[MonmouthParkJoe]

Ive read a ton of books. A lot of people are on point with their comments.

My advice is choose a track that you like and follow it religiously. Learn the trends that work and don't work on a daily basis. Trainer move angles, hot jock/trainer combos, trainer trends, ect.

Learn money management and the proper way to structure your wagers. The fact of the matter is even the best lose, and there are times I think I have some locks that don't show up.

My personal view is to enjoy yourself, view it as a hobby. I don't ever visit the track thinking I have to make $x to make it worth my time. Its an experience and I try to enjoy it as much as possible

Speed figures I use a lot, but pace makes the race. Good luck