PDA

View Full Version : High volume vs low volume bettors


BELMONT 6-6-09
09-07-2015, 07:46 PM
Attended a gathering of about 25 horseplayers recently and I observed some distinct behavior among the players. Some played what appeared to be every race available and multiple tracks , while others gradually played less races. Still there was a couple, at best, myself included, that made a maximum of two or three trips to the betting window.

The reason why I point these betting patterns out is to find what is the most profitable way of playing the races. I understand the principle of playing only with an edge and the more edges you have uncovered the higher volume of wagers for the day. Can the opposite be true and are there still some very infrequent low volume players out there that can wait for the occasional wagering opportunity be it once a day or so and some days no plays?

Again when you wait for the perceived ( perfect spot), for wagering you are subject to an unexpected incident that would affect your outcome ( jockey error, bad trips etc) when you put all your eggs in one basket so to speak. where as the disciplined higher volume player is not so affected by the bad luck wager.

just my thoughts

thaskalos
09-07-2015, 08:27 PM
IMO, it's imperative that we find a betting style which suits our temperament and personality. Some players can wait all day for a couple of "sure things"...while others can't. I do know, however, that those who only bet a few races in an afternoon cannot possibly keep score of their results by the day. If you hate losing days at the track...then betting on a few "sure things" isn't for you. :)

BELMONT 6-6-09
09-07-2015, 08:36 PM
The number of players waiting for the right spot ( price, paddock inspection, latest track bias, etc ) and then wagering to win are in the minority except with the very controlled disciplined players who can recognize a superior spot for wagering and hoping to get the right price after the late money arrives.

thaskalos
09-07-2015, 08:42 PM
The number of players waiting for the right spot ( price, paddock inspection, latest track bias, etc ) and then wagering to win are in the minority except with the very controlled disciplined players who can recognize a superior spot for wagering and hoping to get the right price after the late money arrives.
The bad thing is that the "late money" usually arrives as the horses are rounding the far turn.

BELMONT 6-6-09
09-07-2015, 08:46 PM
The bad thing is that the "late money" usually arrives as the horses are rounding the far turn.

Ha Ha. How true! thask, your previous statement makes sense playing to suit your own style and temperament is the best way. However, one must be true to him or herself and realize success in this game requires doing the right thing ( discipline, patience, control) all of the time and not most of the time...but that's another thread all in itself.

thaskalos
09-07-2015, 09:01 PM
Ha Ha. How true! thask, your previous statement makes sense playing to suit your own style and temperament is the best way. However, one must be true to him or herself and realize success in this game requires doing the right thing ( discipline, patience, control) all of the time and not most of the time...but that's another thread all in itself.
Yes...I agree. Discipline is a must if we aim to profit from this game. But my many years at the track have convinced me that what we call "discipline" is sometimes only FEAR, in disguise. The players that I see who make many bets a day aren't doing it because they find many "playable races"; they do it because they lack the courage to make sizable bets on the few good plays that they DO find. They want to bet $200 in an afternoon...but they'd rather "spread the risk" by betting $10 on each of 20 races...instead of betting $50 on each of the 4 races that they REALLY like. And the guys who wait all day for the "sure thing" are usually doing it because they are paralyzed by the thought of losing.

To borrow a poker term...the player should be "selectively AGGRESSIVE". He should wait for his spot...but then he should POUNCE on it when he finds it. If he waits all day for his spot only to "wimp-out" on his wager, then he isn't "disciplined". He is just scared.

no breathalyzer
09-07-2015, 09:04 PM
this is my #1 problem too many action bets.. i been working on this issue for a while now.. I think the best way to win in this game is to crush races you really like no matter how long you have to wait in between races. If only it wasn't so hard to follow this advice. for me anyways. at the moment i have a limited bankroll. and these action bets are crushing profit for me. I will admit i still have that degenerate tendencies in me. where i will go into chase mode .. its a bad disease.:confused: My stable mail horses to watch are 7 out of the last 10 yet i don't have nearly shit to show for it!!!

BELMONT 6-6-09
09-07-2015, 09:08 PM
Good points. I like to use the phrase: "absolute unbreakable discipline and loss acceptance while in total control of myself and my wagers - at all times resisting the temptation of a guilty action/reaction bet" This is the mantra I used successfully in my early days of 'the battle' with discipline/self control. It worked as the rush of the result was dissipated and the control continued. Like training a muscle the more this exercise was executed the more the discipline grew.

BELMONT 6-6-09
09-07-2015, 09:22 PM
this is my #1 problem too many action bets.. i been working on this issue for a while now.. I think the best way to win in this game is to crush races you really like no matter how long you have to wait in between races. If only it wasn't so hard to follow this advice. for me anyways. at the moment i have a limited bankroll. and these action bets are crushing profit for me. I will admit i still have that degenerate tendencies in me. where i will go into chase mode .. its a bad disease.:confused: My stable mail horses to watch are 7 out of the last 10 yet i don't have nearly shit to show for it!!!

You NEED TO STOP the action bets and get a log book and write down all of your wagers in this book and the reasons why you wagered on them. This will stop the 'action bet syndrome' and nothing beats accurate record keeping. This technique has worked for a number of players with the willingness to adhere to this method and really want to change their betting habits.

Cratos
09-07-2015, 09:30 PM
Attended a gathering of about 25 horseplayers recently and I observed some distinct behavior among the players. Some played what appeared to be every race available and multiple tracks , while others gradually played less races. Still there was a couple, at best, myself included, that made a maximum of two or three trips to the betting window.

The reason why I point these betting patterns out is to find what is the most profitable way of playing the races. I understand the principle of playing only with an edge and the more edges you have uncovered the higher volume of wagers for the day. Can the opposite be true and are there still some very infrequent low volume players out there that can wait for the occasional wagering opportunity be it once a day or so and some days no plays?

Again when you wait for the perceived ( perfect spot), for wagering you are subject to an unexpected incident that would affect your outcome ( jockey error, bad trips etc) when you put all your eggs in one basket so to speak. where as the disciplined higher volume player is not so affected by the bad luck wager.

just my thoughts
You raised the ultimate question in horserace gambling and it is "how do I bet?"

This question in general can be answered in one of two ways; either random or conditional.

This betting decision is different from the "type of betting" decision which revolves around straight bets and exotics.

In my own case, I am a "conditional" bettor who make straight win bets only and I do that about 60 times per year, typically at Saratoga and Belmont plus the TC and BC races.

BELMONT 6-6-09
09-07-2015, 09:35 PM
You raised the ultimate question in horserace gambling and it is "how do I bet?"

This question in general can be answered in one of two ways; either random or conditional.

This betting decision is different from the "type of betting" decision which revolves around straight bets and exotics.

In my own case, I am a "conditional" bettor who make straight win bets only and I do that about 60 times per year, typically at Saratoga and Belmont plus the TC and BC races.

Cratos,

You are in my example of a very disciplined player with all of the essential tools necessary in order to succeed. Your focus is on doing the things you need to do for success...hats off to you and continued success!

Cratos
09-07-2015, 10:48 PM
Cratos,

You are in my example of a very disciplined player with all of the essential tools necessary in order to succeed. Your focus is on doing the things you need to do for success...hats off to you and continued success!
Thanks and I have always stated that no matter how good a handicapper you are; you must have discipline and patience in your wagering.

raybo
09-07-2015, 10:59 PM
Discipline applies to all facets of racing: doing your homework before the races start (including regular maintenance/analysis of your method), not taking shortcuts during the handicapping process, staying with your method if that method has proven to be profitable, passing or betting according to what you know you should be doing, selecting the proper bet type, proper bet amount, keeping records of all bets, etc.. In other words, you have to have the discipline to work a method that has proven itself, regardless of what that method is, if it says pass, then pass, if it says play, then play, etc.. In all facets, "Dance with who brung ya", but continue to do your due diligence in case a better dancer becomes available or the music changes.

Cratos
09-08-2015, 12:10 AM
Discipline applies to all facets of racing: doing your homework before the races start (including regular maintenance/analysis of your method), not taking shortcuts during the handicapping process, staying with your method if that method has proven to be profitable, passing or betting according to what you know you should be doing, selecting the proper bet type, proper bet amount, keeping records of all bets, etc.. In other words, you have to have the discipline to work a method that has proven itself, regardless of what that method is, if it says pass, then pass, if it says play, then play, etc.. In all facets, "Dance with who brung ya", but continue to do your due diligence in case a better dancer becomes available or the music changes.
I understand what you are saying, but my focus on the OP's inquiry was the wagering/betting and my thought process was how do the bettor manage expectation and my response to that question again would be discipline and patience.

This is not to say that a bettor shouldn't be discipline with his/her handicapping, but to say that winning wagering is the "expectation" of their handicapping effort.

Stillriledup
09-08-2015, 04:09 AM
this is my #1 problem too many action bets.. i been working on this issue for a while now.. I think the best way to win in this game is to crush races you really like no matter how long you have to wait in between races. If only it wasn't so hard to follow this advice. for me anyways. at the moment i have a limited bankroll. and these action bets are crushing profit for me. I will admit i still have that degenerate tendencies in me. where i will go into chase mode .. its a bad disease.:confused: My stable mail horses to watch are 7 out of the last 10 yet i don't have nearly shit to show for it!!!

Ask yourself this question. If you weren't allowed to watch the next race you bet on, would you still bet?

12/ALL/ALL
09-08-2015, 07:15 AM
The number of players waiting for the right spot ( price, paddock inspection, latest track bias, etc ) and then wagering to win are in the minority except with the very controlled disciplined players who can recognize a superior spot for wagering and hoping to get the right price after the late money arrives. I think that this disciplined approach is difficult until you get to the point that you realize that the concern about "losing days" is meaningless. The last bet you make on Tuesday is the same as the first bet on Wednesday. It's all a continuum. If the only bet you make on a specific day is on a 9-1 shot whose natural odds you believe to be closer to 4-1, you are going to lose roughly 4 out of 5 days. Win or lose that day, you have still made yourself a long term winner. I still have to constantly remind myself that value, not the certainty of winning that race, is what matters. Interesting thread by OP.

BELMONT 6-6-09
09-08-2015, 08:47 AM
Waiting for the right horse in the right race is a true test for the profit oriented player. Why should you bother to wager on a race where you don't have most of the edges (including) the all important price factor. The difference between a marginal and tough player is that the marginal player will bet for the sake of action and not wait for the right spot, however long it takes that the tough player will wait for the optimum conditions.

no breathalyzer
09-08-2015, 12:39 PM
You NEED TO STOP the action bets and get a log book and write down all of your wagers in this book and the reasons why you wagered on them. This will stop the 'action bet syndrome' and nothing beats accurate record keeping. This technique has worked for a number of players with the willingness to adhere to this method and really want to change their betting habits.

good point.. i been doing this all SAR. and it worked well. but there is still a small part of me that wants to go back to old ways :bang:.. the process is taking longer then it should. Sometimes i still go ''on tilt'' like a bad poker player.

BELMONT 6-6-09
09-08-2015, 01:32 PM
good point.. i been doing this all SAR. and it worked well. but there is still a small part of me that wants to go back to old ways :bang:.. the process is taking longer then it should. Sometimes i still go ''on tilt'' like a bad poker player.

The best part of this procedure is that you will be making less marginal bets since you have to report to the "truth log" before every bet. give this another chance as it has worked for so many others with similar situations. Good luck!

raybo
09-08-2015, 02:10 PM
good point.. i been doing this all SAR. and it worked well. but there is still a small part of me that wants to go back to old ways :bang:.. the process is taking longer then it should. Sometimes i still go ''on tilt'' like a bad poker player.

Think of it this way and you might help yourself stop those action bets. Say you average betting 10 races per day, at $2 per race, and assume your average payout is $6 (2/1 odds), and that you average 3 winners per day. You bet $20 average per day, and receive an average of $18 per day, for an average $2 net loss per day. In 100 betting days you have lost $200.

Now suppose, instead of betting 10 races per day, you only play 3 good opportunity races per day, and average one winner per day at $6 ($2 bet size). 3 races x $2 per race = $6 total bet per day, and you receive $6 for your one winner per day, you break even. You saved $2 per day by betting only 3 races per day instead of 10. In 100 betting days you have saved $200. The larger your bet size, the more money you save, by waiting for only good betting potential. And, you have become a break even player, instead of a -10% losing player.

By concentrating on only races that you have a good handle on, your hit rate will go up almost assuredly, and your net $ loss will decrease. You don't need to worry about "churn", unless your net loss percentage is below what any rebate you may receive will overcome. In other words, if you are a net loser after rebate, you are a loser, period. Once you become a break even or better player, you can afford to make larger bets, for more net profit, with or without rebate.

JohnGalt1
09-08-2015, 02:31 PM
The first handicapping book I read, published in the 60's, stated that if a horse almost qualified as a bet with the method, and shouldn't be bet with a full size bet, don't make a smaller bet to have action, pass the race.

If a wager is not worth the full amount, pass the race. I still follow this.

Sometimes I miss the days when my average bet was smaller, and could find a bet in 90% of races, and sometimes 3 or more bets in one race.

It was more fun, but not as profitable

green80
09-08-2015, 02:54 PM
If you truly have any advantage over the game, then the more races you bet the more profitable you will be. With that being said, I still don't suggest that you play any races where you don't feel that you have an advantage. To find where you have an advantage, record keeping is the most important thing that you can do.

whodoyoulike
09-08-2015, 03:55 PM
this is my #1 problem too many action bets.. i been working on this issue for a while now.. I think the best way to win in this game is to crush races you really like no matter how long you have to wait in between races. If only it wasn't so hard to follow this advice. for me anyways. at the moment i have a limited bankroll. and these action bets are crushing profit for me. I will admit i still have that degenerate tendencies in me. where i will go into chase mode .. its a bad disease.:confused: My stable mail horses to watch are 7 out of the last 10 yet i don't have nearly shit to show for it!!!

This is probably the crux of most if not all handicappers wagering problems. Strange, we know what we should or shouldn't do and yet ......

I think one of the keys for success and happiness is knowing when not to bet because knowing when to bet doesn't appear to work.

Sounds pretty simple.

BELMONT 6-6-09
09-08-2015, 04:14 PM
This is probably the crux of most if not all handicappers wagering problems. Strange, we know what we should or shouldn't do and yet ......

I think one of the keys for success and happiness is knowing when not to bet because knowing when to bet doesn't appear to work.

Sounds pretty simple.


Good point. I always feel the goal of the horseplayer motivated for profits should make careful well thought out wagers in a disciplined, UNEMOTIONAL manner. Seems quite simple BUT in reality virtually impossible for 99%.

Valuist
09-08-2015, 04:15 PM
Ask yourself this question. If you weren't allowed to watch the next race you bet on, would you still bet?

This is a good point. We hear about square sports bettors always betting the Monday Night football game (or Sunday night/Thursday night as well) while not having any real opinion. Can anyone imagine a stock trader buying 1000 shares of Company X because they are bored?

If action bets are a problem for a horse bettor, they really should consider betting blind. An exception may be for the bettor who uses physicality as a major factor in their handicapping. But let's face it; even on track, you don't know what a horse's odds will be until the race is over.

Magister Ludi
09-08-2015, 06:12 PM
The reason why I point these betting patterns out is to find what is the most profitable way of playing the races.

Make an optimally-sized investment in every overlay in every race at every track every day.

raybo
09-08-2015, 07:32 PM
This is a good point. We hear about square sports bettors always betting the Monday Night football game (or Sunday night/Thursday night as well) while not having any real opinion. Can anyone imagine a stock trader buying 1000 shares of Company X because they are bored?

If action bets are a problem for a horse bettor, they really should consider betting blind. An exception may be for the bettor who uses physicality as a major factor in their handicapping. But let's face it; even on track, you don't know what a horse's odds will be until the race is over.

Funny you mentioned that, one of my mentor's frequent statements was "Don't watch the race you just bet, you should be working on your next one". I never cared for that one much, but then I have never bet action bets anyway, even when I knew next to nothing about racing, so it never hurt me. As I have said many times, I hate "gambling", with a passion. I prefer investing. Yeah, I know, everybody says it's all gambling, but for me, it's not, if you truly believe it's not.

BELMONT 6-6-09
09-08-2015, 07:59 PM
Based on the replies in this posting it appears to bring up the fact that there are no two individual bettors who are alike in their betting methods. Every player has to decide what style of play he feels will put him in the "comfort" zone meaning a place where he will accept the results in a non emotional manner. A zone where he will accept the inevitable losing runs and realize losing is all a part of winning never letting it affect his confidence in his method. Only when this comfort zone is reached can the player work hard and play his best game for the purpose of showing long term profit.

horses4courses
09-08-2015, 08:16 PM
Ask yourself this question. If you weren't allowed to watch the next race you bet on, would you still bet?

It's a total luxury for me to be able to watch races from around the world
with a few clicks on a keypad. When I started betting, over 45 years ago,
the race was declared "off" in the bookmaker's office at a scheduled time.
Selected races were televised during the week, but over 90% of them
didn't even a get a running commentary.

Would I enjoy going back to the "Dark Ages"?
No way.
Would it stop me from betting a horse I liked?
Not a chance.

Swiss
09-08-2015, 11:20 PM
You raised the ultimate question in horserace gambling and it is "how do I bet?"

This question in general can be answered in one of two ways; either random or conditional.

This betting decision is different from the "type of betting" decision which revolves around straight bets and exotics.

In my own case, I am a "conditional" bettor who make straight win bets only and I do that about 60 times per year, typically at Saratoga and Belmont plus the TC and BC races.

Unless your 60 win wagers are at minimum one large and with constant 35%WR @ 4:1, I don't see how you are going to measure up to your hero Warren Buffett. Such WR requires not only discipline of "conditional" bettor but thorough research and lotsa time, say 5 to 7 focused hours a day.
Sure you can choose races that offer value and your style, however you need to be there, probably for the whole race card to get a good understanding of the shape of the day. Every day. Especially if you are going to bet only once or twice a week. No?

My point is that if you exert this kind of time and effort to find a 6:1 winner (with $20,000 or more win bankroll,) it may be a good idea to compose exacta and or multi race wager with exotic bankroll of just a few grand. (Buffett wouldn't want you to leave any money on the table, lol.)

Then there are the purists!

pondman
09-08-2015, 11:21 PM
I live at both extremes. I'll sit all year waiting for the perfect shipper into Golden Gate-- the double digit wonder ringer, the secret play, that the old men boxing exactas won't see. Because they've never grown past the DRF. They think i'm some nut that wonder in there and hit with $300 on the nose.

But I've also looked at every # possible and will play every race at Fort Erie. I've got a few things going at a number of tracks. I sometimes surprise myself when I play 6 races at Charles Town with consistent units of money and walk away with 185 units. And I say to myself why doesn't anyone else see this. A monkey could do it.

And then there are the hell tracks that rain every other day and it takes the gate crew 10 minutes to load a horse, and I say it isn't worth playing Indiana.

I believe it's possible to be both a spot player and high volume player, but it's
going to depend on the track and the card. When you get a track that has got a decent turf course it's going to be very difficult to play every race. You've got to specialize.

raybo
09-09-2015, 12:28 AM
The first thing that the OP has to decide is, am I a net profitable player, right now. If he is not, then the first thing he has to do is to become one. If you are not net profitable then there is no need to ask about what is best, high volume or low volume. It doesn't matter until you reach the net profitable level first. Everything else is worthless because you're just another losing player right now.

If he is already a profitable player then he can ask about volume, but the solution can only be answered by himself, what he is capable of and what he isn't, what he is comfortable with and what he isn't, what his dedication level is and what it isn't, what his temperament is and what it isn't, etc.. Nobody can answer those questions except him. And, the level of volume/profit goal requires all those questions, and more, to be answered first.

So, if you're not currently profitable, then keep records of all your bets/plays and bet/play only race types that you do well in, and only bet types that you do well in, and only tracks where you do well. Or, become a better handicapper/wagerer. Most players do not keep records for one of two reasons: they are lazy or they don't really want to "see" how bad they really are. There are no other ways to reach profitability, IMO.

You can't run until you learn to walk.

Robert Goren
09-09-2015, 12:33 AM
With so many pools in each race, there are not too many races that does have a value bet in one its pools. Only races that have too many unknowns in them are not beatable. Unknowns are horses with no starts, shippers, and horses who given a rest from training and are making their first start back. That being said, there are not too many handicappers who are skilled enough in both in "picking the winning horse(s) at all distances, surfaces and types of races" and have the "knowledge of the way each pool works" to bet every race. Most bettors are some sort of specialist when it comes to wagering. For instance, my specialty has been dirt sprints on a bias track in the win pool. I like a lot of small bettors skipped too many races when the odds scared me. I never had a problem betting a horse at long odds, but instead when it was at short odds and it is a near lock. I think this came from be burned by Maidens with a several 2nds and 3rds in the PPs running against a bunch horses who have never beaten half the field in any of their races. I learned the hard this kind of lock is not the same as a bottom level starter race multiple winner going against recent claiming race winners. If you even look at Kelly, you will see that high % winners at low odds are some of the best bets out there. Of course you have to careful about the odds dropping after you bet.

jfdinneen
09-09-2015, 12:45 PM
Cover and Thomas (2006) (http://www.amazon.com/Elements-Information-Edition-Telecommunications-Processing/dp/0471241954) show that, in a horse race, a handicapper has an expected wealth growth-rate equal to that of an investor who wins every race minus a measure of uncertainty of the race and minus the difference in the win probability distribution used by the handicapper and the distribution of true win probabilities. Intuitively, this makes sense. To reduce the race uncertainty, we should focus on open betting markets. To reduce the win estimates difference, we should "meld" our betting line estimates with that of the crowd (Benter, 2004 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOVrZrJ-wtc)). In terms of a simplistic equation:

Long-Term Profit = Clairvoyance – Race Uncertainty – Win Estimate Divergence.

My experience is that most handicappers focus too much on trying to become clairvoyant and not enough on selecting open races and factoring in the “wisdom of crowds”.

raybo
09-09-2015, 01:35 PM
The problem with "factoring in the wisdom of crowds" is that we can't see the wisdom of crowds until after we bet.