Quick Bris question

[Storm Cadet]

Guys, I'm sorry if this is in the wrong area?

Here's my question...Quirin says to use the last 3 sprint type races when making out his running style speed points. Does Bris adjust those after each race to reflect good or bad recent 1C performances? Ex: say a horse is listed as an E7 and he runs 2 or 3 consecutive stinkers on the front end. Does Bris reflect that in the next out PP's? Dropping him to say E2 or making him a P horse now? How often do they adjust that designation?

I used to use Bris many years ago, then switched over to Pace Figures when CJ did his own figs using pace and running style pts. Recently I have been using drf and doing the running style myself but figuring out the pts is getting so time consuming. So I'm thinking of going over to TwinSpires.com and getting my Bris pp there.

Thanks in advance!

[NorCalGreg]

Guys, I'm sorry if this is in the wrong area?

Here's my question...Quirin says to use the last 3 sprint type races when making out his running style speed points. Does Bris adjust those after each race to reflect good or bad recent 1C performances? Ex: say a horse is listed as an E7 and he runs 2 or 3 consecutive stinkers on the front end. Does Bris reflect that in the next out PP's? Dropping him to say E2 or making him a P horse now? How often do they adjust that designation?

I used to use Bris many years ago, then switched over to Pace Figures when CJ did his own figs using pace and running style pts. Recently I have been using drf and doing the running style myself but figuring out the pts is getting so time consuming. So I'm thinking of going over to TwinSpires.com and getting my Bris pp there.

Thanks in advance!

You can still use CJ's #'s, SC. For $3 get yourself a RACE SUMMARY at Twinspires, make a $2 bet...and the dang thing is free. It contains Bris SPEED POINTS, RACING STYLE, LAST 4 SPEED RATINGS, RUNNING STYLE, SPEED RATING AVG, DAYS SINCE, and the PRIME POWER, among a slew of other stuff.
So to answer your actual question--you do not HAVE to spend your precious handicapping time figuring out Quirin speed points. Timeform, in addition to speed/pace figs, may even have them already figured, I'm not sure. Good Luck

[classhandicapper]

If you are just interested in running styles, the DRF EZ Form product was recently improved to give more accurate running style information. It does not give you any specific speed point calculations. So if you need that you would have to calculate the points total yourself.

[takeout]

Here's my question...Quirin says to use the last 3 sprint type races when making out his running style speed points. Does Bris adjust those after each race to reflect good or bad recent 1C performances?
FWIW, this is from an old ALL-Ways Newsletter:
To calculate the QSP rating, up to three races are selected from the most recent five races in a horse’s past performance record. The specific races selected and the actual method of calculations are different depending on the distance of today’s race.
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=apr99brs&header=off

[NorCalGreg]

FWIW, this is from an old ALL-Ways Newsletter:
To calculate the QSP rating, up to three races are selected from the most recent five races in a horse’s past performance record. The specific races selected and the actual method of calculations are different depending on the distance of today’s race.
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=apr99brs&header=off

Thanks takeout....I see I misunderstood his question completely, and you answered it perfectly :)

[Storm Cadet]

Thanks guys!!!!

[Robert Goren]

All most of the Quirin style points calculated by various places like Bris do match Quirin method exactly, but as my dad use to say "But they are close enough for government work" My personal opinion on those points is that when you use to try to figure out the pace, they are likely to steer you away from what the pace is likely to be than they are to steer you on the right path. But I am a lone wolf in that opinion.

[NorCalGreg]

All most of the Quirin style points calculated by various places like Bris do match Quirin method exactly, but as my dad use to say "But they are close enough for government work" My personal opinion on those points is that when you use to try to figure out the pace, they are likely to steer you away from what the pace is likely to be than they are to steer you on the right path. But I am a lone wolf in that opinion.

I'm sure one would get a much better mental picture of pace and speed of a given race if you figured your own ratings, of course you would. Who has time for that? Remember Andy Beyer locking himself in a room, with reams of paper, marking pens and a bottle of hooch? He revolutionized handicapping...I just want to win more than I lose, so to maintain a peaceful homefront I download my figs, and work from there.
Have a good evening
-NCG

[raybo]

Too bad Bris doesn't publish how they determine the 3 of 5 races that they use for their calculations for different distances. My lengthy experience using the Bris running styles and speed points is that sometimes they make absolutely no sense, unless somehow they are using more than 5 races for their calculations. If you use the published Quirin running style and speed points calculations, often you will come up with different assignments than Brisnet, for both running style and speed points. Very confusing and frustrating, to say the least. I spent, literally, hundreds of hours trying to mirror the Brisnet running style and speed point assignments (after switching from Brisnet data files to JCapper data files), and never could, so I finally gave up and now use my own calculations. Unfortunately my assignments don't work as well as Brisnet's in the Randy Giles pace pressure gauge, but they do work better than JCapper's assignments (JCapper only uses "good" races for their assignments, which would be fine if every horse in a race was going to run early like they do in their good races, unfortunately they don't.) :bang:

[Robert Goren]

I'm sure one would get a much better mental picture of pace and speed of a given race if you figured your own ratings, of course you would. Who has time for that? Remember Andy Beyer locking himself in a room, with reams of paper, marking pens and a bottle of hooch? He revolutionized handicapping...I just want to win more than I lose, so to maintain a peaceful homefront I download my figs, and work from there.
Have a good evening
-NCG The main problem with Quiren Points is that they sometimes point to a front runner who by those numbers should get an easy lead, but doesn't because the horse just plain is not fast enough to beat out lower point horses. Quirin points tell you how it likes to race, but not how it will actually race.

[Tom]

That is the good part about them.
A 7 or 8 horse is going to go all out to get the lead, and if his figures say he cannot, you have a good idea of how hot the early pace will be. If you go by just the figures, yo might think you have an easy lead horse and not have that at all.

[thaskalos]

The main problem with Quiren Points is that they sometimes point to a front runner who by those numbers should get an easy lead, but doesn't because the horse just plain is not fast enough to beat out lower point horses. Quirin points tell you how it likes to race, but not how it will actually race.
IMO...the main problem with the Quirin Speed Points is that they focus entirety on the quarter-mile of the sprint...and the quarter-mile leader will often get swallowed-up by a faster horse by the time the half mile comes around. Taking the lead at the quarter mile, and controlling the early pace, aren't the same thing.

[classhandicapper]

IMO...the main problem with the Quirin Speed Points is that they focus entirety on the quarter-mile of the sprint...and the quarter-mile leader will often get swallowed-up by a faster horse by the time the half mile comes around. Taking the lead at the quarter mile, and controlling the early pace, aren't the same thing.

That's one problem.

The other problem is that you don't always know how fast a horse is capable of running early until it is asked.

[Tom]

But if a need the lead horse cannot get the lead at the first call, he will not have it at the second call. The first call sets up the flow of the race. QSP can tell you how crowded that point will be and how hard the early horses will have to work to get free.

I see many races where a P horse will have the best F1 ratings, but it will not take that lead. The QSP and P designation tell me that part of it. If all I had were the F1 ratings to go by, I would making a lot of pace errors.

[ebcorde]

Too bad Bris doesn't publish how they determine the 3 of 5 races that they use for their calculations for different distances. My lengthy experience using the Bris running styles and speed points is that sometimes they make absolutely no sense, unless somehow they are using more than 5 races for their calculations. If you use the published Quirin running style and speed points calculations, often you will come up with different assignments than Brisnet, for both running style and speed points. Very confusing and frustrating, to say the least. I spent, literally, hundreds of hours trying to mirror the Brisnet running style and speed point assignments (after switching from Brisnet data files to JCapper data files), and never could, so I finally gave up and now use my own calculations. Unfortunately my assignments don't work as well as Brisnet's in the Randy Giles pace pressure gauge, but they do work better than JCapper's assignments (JCapper only uses "good" races for their assignments, which would be fine if every horse in a race was going to run early like they do in their good races, unfortunately they don't.) :bang:

what I do is compare Early Pace figures to Quirin run style and speed points

[thaskalos]

But if a need the lead horse cannot get the lead at the first call, he will not have it at the second call. The first call sets up the flow of the race. QSP can tell you how crowded that point will be and how hard the early horses will have to work to get free.

I see many races where a P horse will have the best F1 ratings, but it will not take that lead. The QSP and P designation tell me that part of it. If all I had were the F1 ratings to go by, I would making a lot of pace errors.

Yes...relying on the pace ratings alone isn't the answer, because some pressers do show the best pace ratings...even though they never take the early lead. Perhaps a combination of speed points and pace figures might be the better option. Use the speed points to see how the quarter mile will go...and then use the half-mile pace ratings to see if the scenario figures to change as the race continues to unfold.

[raybo]

The main problem with Quiren Points is that they sometimes point to a front runner who by those numbers should get an easy lead, but doesn't because the horse just plain is not fast enough to beat out lower point horses. Quirin points tell you how it likes to race, but not how it will actually race.

Quirin nor Brisnet have suggested that speed points could be used in isolation. I have found that the needed inherent speed/velocities must be there, or your pace projections will be inaccurate, and I'm sure CJ believes the same way, and probably includes that in the Pace Projecter for TFUS. You just can't do half a job, in anything, and expect to be accurate. I use running styles, speed points, and adjusted fractional velocities for pace projection in my program (possible pace matchups), for eliminations from win contention. I would never use just running styles and speed points for that.

[raybo]

IMO...the main problem with the Quirin Speed Points is that they focus entirety on the quarter-mile of the sprint...and the quarter-mile leader will often get swallowed-up by a faster horse by the time the half mile comes around. Taking the lead at the quarter mile, and controlling the early pace, aren't the same thing.

I think that is the crux of using speed points. In order for a horse to get position to take or press the lead by the 2nd call, it must get a decent start and early run to establish a competitive position at the first call in order to navigate the turn and be in position to challenge for the lead by the 2nd call. 1st call isn't everything but it is more important than the 2nd call, if you're talking about number of winners. Horses that take the lead by the 1st call win more races than horses that first take the lead by the 2nd call. The work has been done to verify that already, Dave S has studied this thoroughly.

[raybo]

But if a need the lead horse cannot get the lead at the first call, he will not have it at the second call. The first call sets up the flow of the race. QSP can tell you how crowded that point will be and how hard the early horses will have to work to get free.

I see many races where a P horse will have the best F1 ratings, but it will not take that lead. The QSP and P designation tell me that part of it. If all I had were the F1 ratings to go by, I would making a lot of pace errors.

I agree. You have to look at running styles, speed points, and actual speed/velocities, none of those in isolation will help you much. Many horses can run fast for a short period of time, but their running style tells you if it usually displays that speed. Some E horses don't have as much speed but because of their running style they will try to compete early anyway (false pace horse), and force the pace even though it spells their doom. But, that false pace horse can also spell the doom of others that get forced by that false pace.

[raybo]

what I do is compare Early Pace figures to Quirin run style and speed points

Of course, I do the same thing but use my adjusted fractional velocities instead of pace figures. All 3 things should be part of the pace projection; running styles, speed points, and pace speed/velocities.