I need help!!...Figure Handicapping on Turf (Quinn)

[TravisVOX]

I've been trying to implement the turf handicapping approach in Figure Handicapping by James Quinn. I'm struggling.

I decided to test run with this past Saturdays second race from Belmont Park. I rated the top three horses.

The fraction times were: 1:08 4/5 at the 6 fur. mark, and a final time of 1:33 1/5.

The winner, Mogador, was 2 1/2 lengths off the lead at the 6 furlongs mark. Therefore, as I understand it (I think!!), I adjust his time to be: 1:09 1/5 (2/5's off the pace). He was the eventual winner, so the final time applies and equates to a closing quarter in :24 seconds. According to the chart, that is a 103 turf figure. Is this right?

This was a swift race though, and second place finisher Celtic Memories would be awarded extra-points. He finished second, beaten only a head. Therefore, the raw times would apply yielding a 24 2/5 closing time. This is a 100 figure. However, he was on the faster-than-par pace by 8/5's of a second...a bonus of 16 points for a final figure of 116.

Third was HalawellfinHala, who was 3/5's of a second off the lead (based on 3 lengths) ran a final quarter in 24 1/5. This is a figure of 102.

I realize this is complicated, but I've done everything but pull my hair out to figure out if I'm going with this right. What is confusing me are the stated values of 1/5 of a second, but as I understand it, those were for simply creating the chart. That being said, going with 1 length = 3/5 of a second, as I did above, appears to be right to calculate the figures. Am I on the right track?

[JustRalph]

Travis

I used to suck at Turf capping. With the help of some friends, many on this board, I realized that I cannot treat every turf course the same. Once you realize this and make the right adjustments for each course, you can win much more often. It especially helps with long priced horses in the exotics.

Just a little tip..........

[kenwoodallpromos]

I used top suck at it until Warren JR started winning so much at northern CA.

[headhawg]

Travis,

I don't have the method in front of me, but it seems that you are correct. The problem, of course, is giving a gigantic rating to the 2nd horse because of the large pace bonus. I personally would dampen that bonus number (8 rather than 16) as I believe that for the most part late speed, class, and breeding wins on the turf, and therefore don't put much emphasis on early pace.

Dick Mitchell proposes a turf ability time as the 1st plus 3rd fraction, the theory being that if a horse can close fast, plus be on or near the pace, that would be a fairly accurate assessment of turf ability. I have not had much luck with this rating, just like I don't like to give a large bonus to a horse on a quicker than normal pace with the Quinn method. It sounds good in theory, but I have not found it to be effective in the real world.

Two other things: you should update the tables in the back of the book to be based on the most recent pars. The ones available through Cynthia Publishing (which I use) or the ones from Dave Schwartz (sp?) of HSH will work well.

Regarding Celtic Memories, if the 116 turf rating looks aberrant (e.g., 101, 104, 116) don't use it when rating the horse in its next race, unless you feel that the horse has improved that much. Let common sense prevail when using any rating method.

Good luck.

HH

[TravisVOX]

Thanks for the input. I'll be working this through into the weekend, and will post my findings/results. I'll look into those publications for the most recent material! Didn't even think of those.


--Thanks

[JackS]

I'm still trying to improve my turf capping so this is just food for thought. Considering that speed is not a major factor on the turf at most tracks(notice the 20,30 or 50-1shots setting the pace in many of these races) The two types of winners are likely to be mid-placed or rear. I personally have been favoring the horses which run mid-pack and have lines consistant with mid-placed rankings. i.e many 4's and 5's. My reasoning- horses in this posisition are well placed to make the final run through the home stretch and will not have to pass virtually every other horse in the race as will the come from behind sustained types. In the end, I will consider all horses early and late and possibly accept one of these types only if the price is more than right otherwise, its back to the 4's and 5's.

[headhawg]

JackS,

I'm assuming that you meant that early speed is not important. Speed definitely is when we are talking about late speed!

As far as position, while I agree that a turf runner with tactical speed sitting 4th, 5th or 6th can be a good bet -- if it has strong late speed. Don't ever discount an S horse with the best numbers; closers win on the turf, regardless of having to go around a wall of horses. (Having a good turf jock helps, however.)

In a similar vein, don't discount front runners or E/P types out-of-hand. The best bet that I've made this year was on Stroll in the Woodford Reserve on Derby Day. Sitting 2nd behind the fave -- paid $11.80.

Also the lone early scenario can still apply -- maybe less so than on dirt -- on certain tracks. Keep a win model of the tracks that you play to see if this might apply.

But if your position method works for you than keep using it.

Good luck.

HH

[chickenhead]

early speed plays great at Hollywood turf routes.

[TravisVOX]

Last year at Saratoga you had to be speed to win on the turf during the first few weeks. I believe it was last year, perhaps the year before. Either way, it can still play a vital role. We once tried to beat a huge favorite in the final race one time...he figured to be near a swift pace. Well no one went, the pace was easy, and he opened up at the bend into the stretch... a deadly move at Saratoga.

The standards still apply. But late kick is deadly 90 percent of the time and that's what I'm looking to cash in on. NY players still leave out a lot of solid turf selections because of the worship of the favorite. I'm hoping to test out some approaches this spring at Belmont, use it a touch in July and roll with it at Saratoga. Yeehaw!

[JackS]

Travis- Often a very nice bet against, is the favorite who figures to be movin late. As they fly down the stretch passing every thing as though they were standing still and as the wire approches, that one last horse either necks, heads or noses them. Reality and common sense tell us these guys are going to be beat on a fairly regular basis. Don't avoid em, look for em, then bet against them.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by chickenhead
early speed plays great at Hollywood turf routes.

spot on.........