College and Pro Football: Against the Public Betting

[hugh]

Football is now upon us. Going to do our best to target every profitable opportunity using the venerable Against the Public Strategy.... For College and Pro Footy. I'll keep track of the record every day (in this thread). Let's do this!
Plays for 9/4/14
---------------------
SMU +36 (getting only 23% of public money)
Western Mich +16.5 (26%)

Plays for 9/5/14
-------------------------
Temple + 7 (30%)
Bowling Green +22 (26%)
UTEP +33 (22%)
Texas State +29 (24%)
Wisconsin +12.5 (29%)
UL Lafayette +17 (28%)
Arkansas State +27.5 (27%)

Definitely not doing pre season NFL so these college games are the only targets.
:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[hugh]

Adding Texas plus 9. Only getting 32% of public betting capital.
Go horns.
:ThmbUp:

[hugh]

Don't really feel good about this one but according to my strategy poetically makes this a good play.
Virginia Tech plus 14.5 (30%)

[hugh]

I won't be posting successful plays after the fact but I've cleaned up betting against the public on the NFL. A little ahead in college.
So far a couple of plays for Sunday. (Posting college next)

EAGLES plus 2.5...HUGE play for me here. Actually my biggest of the year. Everyone hates the Eagles right now. Getting 25% of public money. Love them.

RAMS plus 2... smart money all over the rams. They're only attracting 12% of public cash. I like their chances in this situation.

LIONS plus 3... love this spot for the Lions. In a Sunday night showcase against an overrated Denver team. Getting 30%.

That's all for me. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Dark Horse]

RAMS plus 2... smart money all over the rams. They're only attracting 12% of public cash. I like their chances in this situation.


So the other team moved from - :2: point :5: (opener) to - :1: (present) with (up to) 88% of the money on them?

[hugh]

Exactly. -2 @-115 bovada. .. smart $ like I said

[Dark Horse]

Just be sure those data are reliable. Plenty of people know about RLM, so there could be an incentive to offer incorrect data.

For instance, look at the WAS @ NYG game percentages.
Here: http://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-public-betting-chart
And here: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/consensus/

For example, do you know if your percentages are of wagers placed, or of money wagered?

In that sense the SBR link is more insightful, because it shows 43% of wagers on WAS, but 59% of the money. If you have those two numbers, and a line moves, then you have a good reference of why. But a single number can be a little iffy.

Also, I'm not sure what lineup of books Sports Insights (used in second link) uses these days, but if they're offshore books then their figures may not be as reliable as in the past. Simply because a lot of action has been withdrawn in recent years. The same goes for SBR, of course, but at least they're offering an extra figure.

[Inner Dirt]

Question???? Here is what I saw on Vegas Insider

8:25 PM Game Time Record Line Betting Trend Teams Win-Loss Streak Open Current Spread Money O/U 301 Washington (http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/teams/team-page.cfm/team/redskins) (1-1) (0-0 A) W-1 45.0 44 26% 48% 65% 302 N.Y. Giants (http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/teams/team-page.cfm/team/giants) (0-2) (0-1 H) L-2 -3 -3 74% 52% 35%
Does that mean 26% took Washington and the +3 and 74% took NY-3?
Are was talking number of bettors or total money?

On the 48%-52% split does money mean "money line" bets or total money?
Or is the money line wager not even being mentioned here?

[Inner Dirt]

Wow sorry about the scrambled mess it looked good in the message box before I hit submit, what causes that?

[charm city whizz]

There's a whizz 5 star lock of the year at noon Saturday.......

Purdue +3.......Gonna hammer a very tired traveled bowling green squad

Don't judge purdue by last weeks lost to VT


And I'm due for a winner!!

[hugh]

Adding....

49ers plus 6.5 .... getting 24%. Kaeperick rebounds and hyde goes wild. They match up well against Arizona. My number two play after philly. Just a note about philly. I'm watching the public betting percentages right now... if a ton of money comes in on the Eagles it MAY be a no go.

Dark horse... look at the links I put up at 383billion.com ... I've got a mix of $ and bet numbers. I try to check a bunch of them.

[hugh]

College football ATP Plays:

DUKE +7.5.... 22%

Syracuse +24... 24%

Florida +1.5 .. 32%

Western Michigan +32.5... 32%

Texas +3.5... 32%

Favorite play of the day:
Arkansas +7... 26%
:ThmbUp:

[PressThePace]

College football ATP Plays:

DUKE +7.5.... 22%

Syracuse +24... 24%

Florida +1.5 .. 32%

Western Michigan +32.5... 32%

Texas +3.5... 32%

Favorite play of the day:
Arkansas +7... 26%
:ThmbUp:


All good except your favorite....NICE JOB!!!!

[hugh]

No go on the Eagles!

[hugh]

FLORIDA plus 6.5.... 20%
Maryland plus 14.5.... 24%
Indiana plus 22.5.. 33%
Colorado plus 8..15%

I know it sounds crazy but there is a significant correlation between the stock and the betting markets. Stock market strong means a good week for ATP Plays.

[hugh]

SF plus 8.5 ... 20%
Miami plus 2... 33%
Houston plus 6... 32%
Tampa Bay plus 3... 18%
Washington plus 3..26%
Chicago plus 3.5 .... 29%
STL plus 7... 18%

A bunch of plays this weekend. Most of these seem almost impossible to bet. Should be a good week.

[hugh]

Feeling really good about tomorrow's docket.
:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:
Texas +16.5 .... 27%
Kansas +45 ... 27%
Tennessee +3... 23% (love this play)
CAL +7.5 ... 27% PLAY OF THE DAY
South Carolina +20 ... 29%
:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Inner Dirt]

Feeling really good about tomorrow's docket.
:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:
Texas +16.5 .... 27%
Kansas +45 ... 27%
Tennessee +3... 23% (love this play)
CAL +7.5 ... 27% PLAY OF THE DAY
South Carolina +20 ... 29%
:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

It was long ago when I used to get the lines and stats out of the long ago defunct Los Angeles Herald Examiner and drive to Tijuana to bet, but I remember during a two year period the biggest weekly favorite
in college covered all but 3 times. I wonder how they do now. At least that bet will be winning for most of the game and hopefully all of it.