Any software pick Birdstone?

[andicap]

Every year, software makers brag about picking some longshot in the Derby that is getable by every piece of software because even longshot Derby winners have a paceline that puts them on top. The racing public just chose to ignore those races.

(Charismatic in the Lexington, War Emblem in the Illinois Derby, and Funny Cide's Wood put him a very very close 2nd. And Thunder Gulch was on top if you threw out his last and won on his Florida form.)

I'd like to hear from ANY software maker who had Birdstone.

Now THAT would be an accomplishment.

Somehow I don't think I"ll be hearing any software maker brag about this victory just as you didn't hear any say anything about Sarava's $70 mutual two years back.

Marketing is great. It's nice to pick your spots and brag about all your successes, but you never hear about all the failures.

TO THE BUYER BEWARE!!!!! There are no shortcuts in software unless you are a skilled player to begin with!!!!!!

I wish someone had told me that 10 years ago.

(From someone who learned the hard way)

[Secretariat]

I've got a lot of software and none picked Birdstone on top. That said, those which provide an odds line, and users who look for value off that oddsline may very well have had him.

On POL Birdstone was the fourth pick and was listed at 15.85 to 1 on Steve's ML. Considering he paid 70.00 and the Smarty Jones was drastically underlaid.

Additionally, the methods PowerLinePlus and UltraLine had the exacta 1-2 if you boxed Smarty and Birdstone. I've seen some tohers have Birdstone as high as third.

No doubt about it though. It's the value players would have cashed on this one. I know of no piece of software that picked Birdstone on top.

[wes]

Equisim 3.5 had SJ first and Birdstone second in speed using only the race. No database was used.

wes

[Tom]

HTR velocity, PL5

Fractions were 7-1-4 best TT horse

Velocity ratings were 5-6-5-7-2 best LP.

That is all I can get for him. But he did have some late impact ratings that would verify the veloicty ones.

If you believed his allowance race three back was usable, you had to use him the exactas and such.
I did not consider him a contender, so I didn't use him at all. Had I thought hiom to be contender, the middle move would have been an eye catcher. Using my pacelines and throwing him out, Royal Assault was the middle move late horse that looked super. I played him and Smarty.

[Buckeye]

That is all I can get for him.
One more thing is there in KM screen HTR, one of two with the nLAY flag.

[andicap]

Trouble is Tom, you could have maybe made a case for a bunch of horses AFTER the race in various categories. TT is a notourisly \ poor predictor on its own. LP is a better one especially the way the pace turned out.
Problem is, stone cold closers rarely win the Belmont. We all know that. Its usually early or presser types.



Originally posted by Tom
HTR velocity, PL5

Fractions were 7-1-4 best TT horse

Velocity ratings were 5-6-5-7-2 best LP.

That is all I can get for him. But he did have some late impact ratings that would verify the veloicty ones.

If you believed his allowance race three back was usable, you had to use him the exactas and such.
I did not consider him a contender, so I didn't use him at all. Had I thought hiom to be contender, the middle move would have been an eye catcher. Using my pacelines and throwing him out, Royal Assault was the middle move late horse that looked super. I played him and Smarty.

[sevenall]

Focus 2000: Birdstone was rated as a clear 3rd in class (behind Smarty & Rock Hard Ten)...nothing like a Grade 1 win to boost this rating.

FastFred Pro: Birdstone was rated third in "Performance Class"...the rating pioneered by William Scott in his book "Victory at the Track" (behind Smarty & Purge)....these three horses were the only 3 Graded stakes winners in the field.

The Master Magician: Birdstone was rated as second (behind Smarty). The same program had Smarty & Lion Heart ranked in the top 3 for the Derby (Lion Heart was tied with Birdstone).

The Ratings:

Focus 2000:

Smarty Jones: 999.99

Rock Hard Ten: 207.5

Birdstone: 146.8

Purge: 117.0

FastFred Pro

Performance Class:

Smarty Jones: 145.2

Purge: 91.1

Birdstone: 77.5

Rock Hard Ten: 71.4

Master Magician:

PPF

Smarty Jones: +3

Birdstone: +1

Purge: 0

Tap Dancer: -3

[Tom]

andicap,
His 7-1-4 pointed out a good middle move, the kind that wins alot at Belmont. His LP was mostly due to the middle move. I likes that the energy was being dispensed at the point when the cheap speed would be backing up leaving him one of the ones with something for the stretch. I alsway pay attention to horse with two good fractions- in this case. best TT and a top last fraction.

Purge was a 1-7-6 Not a contender on fractions
RHT was a 3-5-5 Not a contender on fractions
Smarty a 2-2-1 Triple Crown winnner on fractions

Had I looked more at the velocity, there were only 4 contenders - Smarty, Caiman, Bird, and Royal....but at this point in the day, I had already hit the "Pic-6 pack" so c'est live!

[wes]

TOM:

Pic-6 pack" so c'est live!

Did you have a seven course meal an Opossum (possum) to go with the 6 pack?

wes

[JimG]

Actually I would be concerned if my software du jour listed Birdstone on top in the Belmont. In my opinion, no single pace line in Birdstone's record, if repeated, made him the horse to beat. And software that handicapped using more than one pace line certainly would not have listed Birdstone to win.

Jim

[Jeff P]

For what it's worth, my own home grown software had Birdstone as a clear non contender. The way I look at it I will be wrong plenty of times and right only occasionally. The trick is getting paid enough when you are right to cover the cost and then some for all the times you are wrong. I have to swallow this year's Belmont as just one of those races where I was wrong and let it go at that.

[7horses]

I downloaded the free Always data files from BRIS and ran
using Frandsen's Belmont Stakes profile. Birdstone was not
listed either as a contender or a "dangerous non-contender".

Always did have several good longshots picked on the card
and I had a successful day using it. (Because of the cost I only use it on days with large fields and a casual crowd that skews the odds).

I noticed that the BRIS Prime Power rating had Birdstone listed
5th, but his rating was very close to the horses listed 2-4 :

smarty : 168
purge : 153.7
eddington : 153.4
rht : 153
birdstone : 152.

[daylami]

YEP, EVERYONE MAKES FUN OF IT BUT KRAM HAD HIM ON TOP.

[headhawg]

Originally posted by daylami
YEP, EVERYONE MAKES FUN OF IT BUT KRAM HAD HIM ON TOP.

Based on what? Speed figs, pace figs, race position...magic genie in a bottle???

[pmd62ndst]

Would you honestly want software that picked Birdstone to come on top?

I have a feeling that anyone who picked Birdstone in the exotics did so by hitting the "ALL" button. Either that or someone who likes birds and stones.

PMD

[Lefty]

sec, Birdstone not much of an overlay from and oddsline 0f 15.85 and going of at 35-1. That's just a little over a 3% overlay.

[Secretariat]

Originally posted by Lefty
sec, Birdstone not much of an overlay from and oddsline 0f 15.85 and going of at 35-1. That's just a little over a 3% overlay.

How do you figre that Lefty? Birdstone had about a 5% win chance.

According to Mitchell's book:

Expectation=Win Percent x Odds - Loss Percent

Expectation =((0.85/(1+15.85)) x 35)-Loss Percent
Expectation= (0.05 x 35) - 0.95
Expectation= (1.75-0.95) or 0.80 Edge

An 80% Edge.

Maybe I'm missing something.

[Lefty]

sec, I referred to a odds pctg chart. 15-1 is 6.3 pctg. 35-1 is 2.8 pctg. About a 3% diff. Maybe i'm looking at it wrong.
But also, Mitchell doesn't recommend betting anything with less than a 14% chance. So either way, a weak overlay, but hey, you pays your money and takes your chances.

[Secretariat]

Lefty,

In terms of win percent it is only that much of a difference, but the Edge is much higher according to Mitchell's formula.

[Lefty]

sec, ok, I understand what you're saying. But Mitchell also says, in various tomes, that it's not advisable to bet with less than a 14% chance of winning. Don't think may true overlay bettors would give Birdstone a second glance on that score.

[Secretariat]

Normally I woudl agree with that Lefty, but the compressed odds on Smarty Jones pushed almost every other horse under 14% win. But I didn't play him so its a moot point.

[TRM]

My own home grown software had him 4th.

9-589
5-561
1-494
4-475

This a combination rating of pace and class. The only other thing I noticed was his vel figs.

1FC-54.25 2FC-52.13 3FC-54.46

These are the internal "hidden" fractions for his 4th race back. He was the highest 3FC in the race and notice the gain from 2FC- 3FC.

FYI- Changing the subject.......I'm watching the Laker game and I could have sworn I saw Bob Baffert right behind the Laker bench???

[omar]

the master magician had birdstone over smarty jones by 1 point or length, if you sorted by ppf and took off the "A" aberrancy feature. TMM is by Michael Pizzola.

[plainolebill]

I got Michael's Belmont analysis via email: No mention of Birdstone whatsoever. He must be using MM differently than you are Omar. In fact he said he would be passing the race. I wish I had:)

[shanta]

Originally posted by omar
the master magician had birdstone over smarty jones by 1 point or length, if you sorted by ppf and took off the "A" aberrancy feature. TMM is by Michael Pizzola.

Omar! Welcome to the board. where is your Babusck??

I hope to see you Saturday at the Meadowlands. Tell Freddy i was asking for him ok?
Richie

[HTRFGuy]

Originally posted by JimG
Actually I would be concerned if my software du jour listed Birdstone on top in the Belmont. In my opinion, no single pace line in Birdstone's record, if repeated, made him the horse to beat. And software that handicapped using more than one pace line certainly would not have listed Birdstone to win.

Jim

My software projected Birdstone over Smarty on only one race, Birstone's Champagne at Belmone...

Horse S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 Trk S Cd Lgth. Time BL2 BL
BIRDSTONE 55.61 53.21 55.79 4 19 1 BEL D FT 8.5 Champagne-G1 144.40 26.33 .00
SMARTY JON 56.34 53.68 52.71 3 17 2 OP D MY 9.0 Arkderby-G2 146.12 20.52 8.60
SMARTY JON 55.13 54.88 52.44 9 5 4 PIM D FT 9.5 Preaknes-G1 146.34 24.02 9.68

[headhawg]

Originally posted by omar
the master magician had birdstone over smarty jones by 1 point or length, if you sorted by ppf and took off the "A" aberrancy feature. TMM is by Michael Pizzola.

I passed the Belmont as well, but in the follow-up to MP's Derby analysis he mentioned that a user unchecked aberrancy to bring Imperialism up to third helping him hit the tri.

Surprising that MP didn't try that approach in his Belmont analysis, although he does like to "keep his powder dry" for better opportunities.

A question for the experienced MM users: does anyone have any stats regarding the unchecking of aberrancy for 3 yr olds in general, or is that technique only good for "classy" horses? (Or did it just work in these two races?)

[socantra]

Using Validator in my best post-race handicapping mode, I was able to get Birdstone to #3 and a lone late energy horse, and if I hid Smarty as the favorite, I came up with a tie for 1st with Purge.

All of that, of course, is dependent on being willing to go back 4 lines to an 8 month old race that Birdstone had run as a 2 year old.

As I remember, everyone thought he was the horse to beat going into the Derby preps, but he'd shown nothing to reinforce that opinion until the Belmont

socantra...

[delayjf]

As I recall, HTR rated Birdstone number 2 on sustained pace going into the Derby.

The only way to get Birdstone first is to assume that SJ distance limitations plus the grind of the TC would finally catch up to him, if so, then Birdstone becomes a possibility.

What happened in the Stephan Foster??? did all those horses go off form at once??

[cj]

Just about anyone's ratings would have rated Birdstone pretty high on sustained pace if you were willing to go back 3 or 4 races in his PPs. Even if you were, how many people base dirt race bets on sustained pace? I guess a 12f race is as good a time as any to try, but history doesn't really bear this out.

[kingfin66]

Not only that CJ, but it's awfully hard to go past 2 bad lines in the pp's. Maybe he had excuses in the Derby with the sloppy track and shoe problem. There was no excuse in the Lane's End except the one Zito made for him before the race had been run.

[Zimal1]

Using its paceline selection method 2 which is the main one I use, Thorovision chose Birdstone's 1st and 3rd races back and had it first in TT and LP, third in average pace. I didn't bet the race.

[WINMANWIN]

HOW many times do these steeds have to burn us for us to catch on ! Birdstone had a legit excuse in the derby, Threw show and the track was sloppy. In the race when Bailey rode him, the track
was the excuse, harrowed, it rained that day but was listed good or fast, whatever:rolleyes: Lets not forget BIRDIE was 3 or 4 to 5 that day :o With all the Bullspit about ROCK HARD TEN ETC making up 11 lenghts from the preakness TO the belmont, and training like a tremendous machine:confused: and looks the part
blah blah, one could easily use BIRDIE. I just wish I wasn't such a Smarty fan, as I fell in love with SMARTY since his initial outing and was on him ever since, but my love cost me 47 k in the pick 6 belmont day.:(