I want to Learn About Fantasy Sports

[Dave Schwartz]

Topic says it all.

I am interested in learning about fantasy sports. I certainly understand sports stats (across all sports), but I just have never been interested in fantasy.

Can anyone point me to a good book or two to teach me the basics?

Thank you in advance.

[ManU918]

Obviously each sport is different... Which sport are you looking to invest in?

[Dave Schwartz]

I am open to suggestions.

Which is easiest to beat in your opinion?

Which is most popular?

[ManU918]

Honestly.... I love the weekly golf games on Draft Kings.

[Dave Schwartz]

Any suggestions for books?

[highnote]

I am open to suggestions.

Which is easiest to beat in your opinion?

Which is most popular?


I was betting the daily basketball fantasy contests on Fan Duel last winter with a little success. But I soon found out you have to be really knowledgeable about all the players and the nightly matchups or have a really good database of stats that can automate the picks.

The Fan Duel games allow you to pick so many players from the night's games to build your own roster. Each player is purchased for a price. I think you get $60,000 to build your roster.

The goal is to spend as much as you can without going over $60,000 and building the best roster. Your score depends on how well your players pick up points on the night -- field goals, steals, assists, free throws, turnovers, etc. are all worth X amount of points. The more you score the higher your rank. There might be 10,000 people in a contest. If you finish in the top 40% (or something like that) you can win money -- from breaking even to winning a jackpot if you are one of the top rosters.

I set up an excel spreadsheet that would use Solver to optimize the roster for me. I entered all the players and their average fantasy points per game along with the price per player. Then let excel optimize the fantasy players chosen while spending less than or equal to $60,000. It's a constrained optimization problem.

So after all of that, I showed a young man at work what I was doing. He's a big NBA fan and plays season long fantasy basketball. He knows every player. He easily out-picked my system just using his knowledge of the game.

I've got a feeling that I could combine my optimization with his picks to build some very strong rosters.

But the key is knowing the matchups -- who's going to have a big night.

Maybe if you can find strong offensive teams and weak defensive teams that are playing each other you can build your roster around those games?

Then you also have to follow the injury updates. Some people get the twitter feeds from all the journalists in all the NBA markets and get the most up to the minute information about the teams -- who's in, who's out, who's playing hurt, who's healthy, etc.

It's like a full time job to do it right.

I found that I don't have time to be an expert in racing and basketball and I'm far from an expert in racing! And I already am spread too thin. No point in me being mediocre in one more field.
:D

[highnote]

Any suggestions for books?

Not off the top of my head. But if you become an expert you could probably write a book about fantasy sports betting and maybe make more from book sales than you could from betting since it is a hot field right now.

[thaskalos]

Topic says it all.

I am interested in learning about fantasy sports. I certainly understand sports stats (across all sports), but I just have never been interested in fantasy.

Can anyone point me to a good book or two to teach me the basics?

Thank you in advance.

Check out the work of Jonathan Bales on amazon. I've bought several of his books...and I found them very helpful.

If you have an Amazon kindle and a kindle-unlimited plan...you can also read some of these books for free.

[ldiatone]

there are many magazines on the market on all the sports for fantasy. many write strategies about selecting your team. also plenty of web sites that offer weekly lineups suggestions. also there are plenty of web sites that where one can establish a league and as a "commissioner" manage week to week stats.
obtw i was in a horse racing fantasy "Stable" back in the 90's where one selected horses for your "Stable" and winning money where the "points" to win.
OMG one had to call on the telephone to drop and add horses. by DRF

[Dave Schwartz]

Thanks for all the ideas.

Keep 'em coming. Especially those that have to do with understanding the process of analyzing the stats and building metrics/factors.

[ldiatone]

when playing fantasy football one needs to know the scoring rules. some cout TD's only. others count yards plus Td. some yards-TDs-catches eg 1pt for each catch by a WR. some line ups call for 1 QB 2 rb 2 wr 3 "flex" 1 k 1 def.
i was in one where we used the former 1 te 2 dl and 2 db. 3 pts for a sack 3 pts for INT. it was a keeper league so we carried 40 players. 6 qbs 10 rb and wr's 3 te 3 k 4 dl(either dl or lb) and 4 db's

[Robert Goren]

I was betting the daily basketball fantasy contests on Fan Duel last winter with a little success. But I soon found out you have to be really knowledgeable about all the players and the nightly matchups or have a really good database of stats that can automate the picks.

The Fan Duel games allow you to pick so many players from the night's games to build your own roster. Each player is purchased for a price. I think you get $60,000 to build your roster.

The goal is to spend as much as you can without going over $60,000 and building the best roster. Your score depends on how well your players pick up points on the night -- field goals, steals, assists, free throws, turnovers, etc. are all worth X amount of points. The more you score the higher your rank. There might be 10,000 people in a contest. If you finish in the top 40% (or something like that) you can win money -- from breaking even to winning a jackpot if you are one of the top rosters.

I set up an excel spreadsheet that would use Solver to optimize the roster for me. I entered all the players and their average fantasy points per game along with the price per player. Then let excel optimize the fantasy players chosen while spending less than or equal to $60,000. It's a constrained optimization problem.

So after all of that, I showed a young man at work what I was doing. He's a big NBA fan and plays season long fantasy basketball. He knows every player. He easily out-picked my system just using his knowledge of the game.

I've got a feeling that I could combine my optimization with his picks to build some very strong rosters.

But the key is knowing the matchups -- who's going to have a big night.

Maybe if you can find strong offensive teams and weak defensive teams that are playing each other you can build your roster around those games?

Then you also have to follow the injury updates. Some people get the twitter feeds from all the journalists in all the NBA markets and get the most up to the minute information about the teams -- who's in, who's out, who's playing hurt, who's healthy, etc.

It's like a full time job to do it right.

I found that I don't have time to be an expert in racing and basketball and I'm far from an expert in racing! And I already am spread too thin. No point in me being mediocre in one more field.
:DI gave the NBA fan duel a shot two years ago and quickly discovered that picking horses paid more. Even in the dollar games, you have to know your match ups and if a player is nursing an injury that is costing him minutes. Just like betting the lines, you can get an edge if you read the local newspaper coverage of every team. It takes up a huge amount of time to get even small edge. Because of the time it takes, you can not be a small player. I think there are a few elite players who eat up most of the prize money. In a top half cash 10 player game, 3 players probably have a team in every league of this type out there and the teams all have the same players and they cash at least 90% of the time. The other 7 are fighting over the last two spots. The game does not treat kindly players who use different lineups in different leagues. There is one correct team and if you want to cash you have got to have it or be very close to having it. Certainly there will be 4 or 5 cheap NBA players that every winning team will have. It is not usual for you to have a team of players that you can't improve on without going over the cap and you will be $1,000 under the cap. You know that team can not cash, but it is not easy to see how to improve it. After putting in 5 or 6 hours putting together the team, you don't want to take the night off either. Winning teams are either right on the cap or at most $200 under. No matter what your spreadsheet says, you had better be in that range.

[menifee]

I gave the NBA fan duel a shot two years ago and quickly discovered that picking horses paid more. Even in the dollar games, you have to know your match ups and if a player is nursing an injury that is costing him minutes. Just like betting the lines, you can get an edge if you read the local newspaper coverage of every team. It takes up a huge amount of time to get even small edge. Because of the time it takes, you can not be a small player. I think there are a few elite players who eat up most of the prize money. In a top half cash 10 player game, 3 players probably have a team in every league of this type out there and the teams all have the same players and they cash at least 90% of the time. The other 7 are fighting over the last two spots. The game does not treat kindly players who use different lineups in different leagues. There is one correct team and if you want to cash you have got to have it or be very close to having it. Certainly there will be 4 or 5 cheap NBA players that every winning team will have. It is not usual for you to have a team of players that you can't improve on without going over the cap and you will be $1,000 under the cap. You know that team can not cash, but it is not easy to see how to improve it. After putting in 5 or 6 hours putting together the team, you don't want to take the night off either. Winning teams are either right on the cap or at most $200 under. No matter what your spreadsheet says, you had better be in that range.

I don't play daily fantasy, but I've read a lot about it. I know a lot more about the legal aspect of it than strategies for winning. From those I've interviewed, the computer player has a much stronger advantage than the pen and paper player. I believe this advantage is much higher than in horse racing handicapping. There are so many more factors to consider in daily fantasy vs. the # factors in a horse race. There was a great HBO piece on Real Sports about it. Draft Kings had some million dollar tournament and the finalist were all computer players (running fairly sophisticated algorithms) except one guy who was a pen and paper player. All the computer players had a number of Colorado Rockies because there was a great chance there would be a lot of runs scored in that game. That night, there was a water main break and they had to cancel the game. It happened too late for them to alter their lineups. The pen and paper player won the tournament.

Ultimately, this disadvantage for the casual fan I think will be daily fantasy's undoing as the casual fan learns he can't win.

[Valuist]

I prefer the daily MLB on Draft Kings. Don't get too carried away with guys who've been hot the past 2-3 weeks; the hot streaks are already factored into the player pricing. One factor that doesn't appear to be factored in, is the hitter/pitcher matchups. Take a look at the posted game totals to look for higher scoring games. Avoid using multiple players from teams who traveled the night before.

And one doesn't need to be a computer player to load up on players playing that day at Coors Field. I believe Fan Duel limits "stacking" a team's lineup, but Draft Kings allows it.

[dnlgfnk]

Thanks for all the ideas.

Keep 'em coming. Especially those that have to do with understanding the process of analyzing the stats and building metrics/factors.

Dave,

Influenced by incorporating public odds into my "true odds" line in racing, I looked for something similar in fantasy land last winter as spring training approached. That is, a consensus of informed opinion weighed with my own projections to get at a more reliable judgement of players. I haven't really found it in baseball, but I struck gold in football this summer.

I was hesitant to divulge my find, but it still requires judgement and art at draft time (I'm drafting for one of my two leagues in two hours-hoping some rivals fall asleep later this evening).

Isaac Petersen at Fantasy Football Analytics seem to be right up your alley. His research has found that, just like racing and the market (I'm told), the "wisdom of the crowds" is very much in play. No single expert dominates the projection field over time, but instead the consensus of experts performs best. FFA has crunched the data (projections of many experts) to form the Value over Replacement (VOR) of all players for the upcoming season, with other factors mined from that data (risk, drop off to next player, base expected performance being my favorites).

It's not so much that you will want to rush into fantasy football--you're probably too late this year without experience-- but the models produced by FFA may interest you, as well as the adjoining articles...

http://fantasyfootballanalytics.net/2013/03/isaac-petersen.html

Here is the cheat sheet I will be using shortly to manuever my way through a snake draft (1 to 12, 12 to 1, and so on filling 9 offensive positions, 1 team defense/special team, and 5 bench players):

http://apps.fantasyfootballanalytics.net/projections

It still requires dynamic judgement as other player's decisions affect anticipated actions, but Petersen is even working on that for next year! With his help, I am a 9 pt. favorite against the perennial playoff performer of that league (my bro.) in week one.

As for baseball, Larry Schecter has a nice trophy case and references "value" as key, which attracted me to his approach...

https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=winning%20fantasy%20baseball%20larry%20schecht er%20pdf

...but I'm secretly waiting for Isaac Peterson to "tackle" baseball, which is my co-favorite, on a par with the running horse.

I'm not much for daily games...I equate it with predicting the market daily...too volatile for me.

Good luck, Dave.

[ronsmac]

I've been in fantasy football leagues for money the last 2 yrs and a number of friends/ acquaintances use fan duel. I've decided not to play this year because I found myself stressing way more on FF than I ever have betting football or horses. I was a nervous wreck. Good luck to all you guys who have a better temperament than I do.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

I've been in fantasy football leagues for money the last 2 yrs and a number of friends/ acquaintances use fan duel. I've decided not to play this year because I found myself stressing way more on FF than I ever have betting football or horses. I was a nervous wreck. Good luck to all you guys who have a better temperament than I do.

You should try the futures market or Forex. With the moves lately, you'd be in the hospital.

Saw a five minute long infomercial on FanDuel on getTV during a movie the other night. The guy who chucked in $30 and got back over $2M seemed rather pleased with himself.

FanDuel must be considered a game of "skill" to skirt those pesky gambling laws.....

[ronsmac]

You should try the futures market or Forex. With the moves lately, you'd be in the hospital.

Saw a five minute long infomercial on FanDuel on getTV during a movie the other night. The guy who chucked in $30 and got back over $2M seemed rather pleased with himself.

FanDuel must be considered a game of "skill" to skirt those pesky gambling laws.....
I was in a 16 team league last year and at least 12 use fan duel or draft kings or both. I dont know how it's not gambling.

[dav4463]

Fanduel is a lot of fun.

[Robert Goren]

I was in a 16 team league last year and at least 12 use fan duel or draft kings or both. I dont know how it's not gambling. for the same reason that day trading the NYSE is not. The law says its not in most states. Get over it.

[highnote]

I was in a 16 team league last year and at least 12 use fan duel or draft kings or both. I dont know how it's not gambling.

I work with a young man who is an NBA fanatic. He knows every player and has been playing fantasy basketball for several years. I showed him fanduel and now he plays it in addition to his fantasy league. He does very well -- much better than my computer generated system. He knows all the matchups and who is injured and every other tidbit of info.

It's definitely a game of skill for those who put in the work. For me, it seemed like gambling because I tried to automate it and quickly found it takes a lot of work to win.

I suppose horse racing is gambling, too, to most people. But it's a game of skill to those who win.

[Stillriledup]

Isn't fantasy sports completely random as to which players do well on any given game? If there was a supercomputer with all the stats and match ups, how could a human be better in the long run than just a computer who's picking by the book? If you 'do research' and select a player who has a great game, you might think you made a smart pick, but maybe it was just dumb luck?

[ebcorde]

is a joke, the world is betting the real thing, here it's "FANTASY SPORTS" wtf? I hate the republicans.

[michiken]

Dave,

At your age, don't you think you should have your heart checked by your doctor before wandering off into the fantasy world?

[_______]

I was in a 16 team league last year and at least 12 use fan duel or draft kings or both. I dont know how it's not gambling.

The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 (this is the law that eventually took down many of the online poker sites) had a carve out for fantasy sports. I believe at the time Yahoo and some other providers were successful in lobbying for the ability to offer their standard fantasy leagues for an entry fee with a prize at the end of the season.

The people behind FanDuel noticed the carve out and figured out a more lucrative model by offering daily contests. DraftKings followed and having sold an interest to Disney (ESPN) are rapidly closing the size gap.

I think it's another great example of American ingenuity. I guarantee the contests being offered now are not what the authors of that legislation intended to allow.

[Dave Schwartz]

At your age, don't you think you should have your heart checked by your doctor before wandering off into the fantasy world?

Well, if I can do CrossFit, I can do this. LOL - Golf would be my real downfall as my psycho benefits are not the greatest. :lol:

[Valuist]

Isn't fantasy sports completely random as to which players do well on any given game? If there was a supercomputer with all the stats and match ups, how could a human be better in the long run than just a computer who's picking by the book? If you 'do research' and select a player who has a great game, you might think you made a smart pick, but maybe it was just dumb luck?

There are a lot of guys who use computer programs. So we want to know what the computer values. I can really only speak for baseball, as its the only game I've played daily fantasy. What does the computer value? Recent form. You can have a no name guy but if he's been hot the last 10 days, that's reflected in his daily price. You can have a superstar but if he's been slumping, he won't be priced as a star.

IMO, there's still plenty of value in the hitter/pitcher matchups. A hitter may "own" one pitcher but could still be reasonably priced, unless he's been real hot recently. For pitchers, many have strong home/road dichotemys. Home/road is somewhat reflected in the daily prices, but not fully.

As for football, so much information is public, its hard to imagine having too much of an edge. Coaches are pretty tight lipped, so one can only speculate on game plans. IMO, football is more random than baseball.

[Valuist]

Anyone else completely sick of these Draft Kings ads? Its not just on sports channels either.

[ReplayRandall]

Anyone else completely sick of these Draft Kings ads? Its not just on sports channels either.

Draft Kings was the #1 buyer for advertising of any company in the US last week, spending $24.3 million.....

[Aerocraft67]

Just started dabbling in fantasy football to see what all the fuss was about. Curious to hear more about what horseplayers make of it, how fantasy sports contest analysis and "betting" are similar and dissimilar to horse race handicapping and wagering.

I found a tool to optimize daily fantasy football rosters on fantasypros web site, much like the constrained optimization model highnote described (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1872751&postcount=6) . Loosely analogous to a BRIS Prime Power or whatever computer model you might use to predict odds and outcomes. The model is based on expert recommendations, and the whole site is dedicated to aggregating those expert recommendations. Imagine public handicappers having that much sway!

I'm still puzzling over the concepts of value and overlays as we understand them and applying them to fantasy. Again, I think highnote mentioned the key—pick players that outperform their ordinal season rank at the position that night. Of course there are game specific rankings for this, too. Like an army of public handicappers choking punters in a cloud of chalk? So there's your "public" to bet against.

Anyway, I'd like to hear more about comparing horse race wagering to fantasy sports contesting.

[Aerocraft67]

I just bought the latest Bales book, ironically after clicking a link from the Amazon preview page to his own site where I got 10% off the PDF purchase. Seems worth $9.

After reading a bit of it, I suppose a familiar approach would be to pick a player or two for a lineup that you see as an exceptional value, then let your favorite optimizer model pick the rest. Much like having a key horse or two in exotics.

[Secondbest]

I was in a 16 team league last year and at least 12 use fan duel or draft kings or both. I dont know how it's not gambling.
It's not considered gambling because the final score of a game has nothing to do with whether you win or lose.

[Dark Horse]

is a joke, the world is betting the real thing, here it's "FANTASY SPORTS" wtf? I hate the republicans.

This.

Vegas has deep pockets.

[Dark Horse]

It's not considered gambling because the final score of a game has nothing to do with whether you win or lose.

It's a form of prop betting.

I find it hilarious. A Fan Duel ad will show a guy saying 'man, I know nothing, yet I won a million dollars' in the very country where sports betting is illegal because 'you can click your mouse and lose your house'.

America is a country of extremes. Always has been, always will be.

[burnsy]

I tried it this week. Played 3 contests at Draft Kings. My first team was in 2 of them and did nadda. But my second team came in the money last night with Aaron Rodgers at QB and the Cardinals defense along with some high scoring skill players. The money was credited to my account this morning.

I'm in this now for sure because I think there's a ton of money from people that don't know what they are doing. Its so new and popular. My strategy is to find the most one sided games and concentrate on those players. My focus was on the Arizona Cardinals and the Green Bay Packers for that second team I played. They let you play a supplement player with your regular skill guys, I took Gronk in the one I lost because Brady threw most of the TD's to the unknowns last week. On the other one I did well with Jimmy Graham. Naturally, the first week I didn't really know what I was doing but one of my teams did make me money. You also have to find underlays, just like horses. I got Chris Johnson of the Cards cheap and he scored me 31 points. Larry Fitzgerald, no underlay on price, got me 37.4. The guy on TV might of won knowing nothing but you will have a big advantage if you do know how to scout the players to figure out if its their week to "crush" the opponent. That's the route I'm taking and I made money the first week, nothing big, but I was knocking on the door at winning the thing last night.

[rastajenk]

Draft Kings was the #1 buyer for advertising of any company in the US last week, spending $24.3 million.....
I think I saw them all that week.

[Canarsie]

I tried it this week. Played 3 contests at Draft Kings. My first team was in 2 of them and did nadda. But my second team came in the money last night with Aaron Rodgers at QB and the Cardinals defense along with some high scoring skill players. The money was credited to my account this morning.

I'm in this now for sure because I think there's a ton of money from people that don't know what they are doing. Its so new and popular. My strategy is to find the most one sided games and concentrate on those players. My focus was on the Arizona Cardinals and the Green Bay Packers for that second team I played. They let you play a supplement player with your regular skill guys, I took Gronk in the one I lost because Brady threw most of the TD's to the unknowns last week. On the other one I did well with Jimmy Graham. Naturally, the first week I didn't really know what I was doing but one of my teams did make me money. You also have to find underlays, just like horses. I got Chris Johnson of the Cards cheap and he scored me 31 points. Larry Fitzgerald, no underlay on price, got me 37.4. The guy on TV might of won knowing nothing but you will have a big advantage if you do know how to scout the players to figure out if its their week to "crush" the opponent. That's the route I'm taking and I made money the first week, nothing big, but I was knocking on the door at winning the thing last night.

I think you're on to something here. I have never played FS but read a bunch of trade magazines who then link you to an avalanche of more information. The one consistent thing that comes across is that people using spreadsheets and put in countless hours coming up with players and teams have a HUGE edge over every other type of player. A guy like me has almost zero chance.

I have never seen them advertise a repeat winner again you are playing against 1%-2% of the field and it's still hard to win and or repeat. I have no idea if I'm right about this but wouldn't whales figure out a way to make a bunch of money investing?

I wonder how many dime super players have quit betting on racing and started playing FS? They get all sorts of abuse especially on track (mostly rightfully deserved) that they will say "screw it I can do this at home for the same amount and have hours of enjoyment."

[cj]

I think you're on to something here. I have never played FS but read a bunch of trade magazines who then link you to an avalanche of more information. The one consistent thing that comes across is that people using spreadsheets and put in countless hours coming up with players and teams have a HUGE edge over every other type of player. A guy like me has almost zero chance.

I have never seen them advertise a repeat winner again you are playing against 1%-2% of the field and it's still hard to win and or repeat. I have no idea if I'm right about this but wouldn't whales figure out a way to make a bunch of money investing?

I wonder how many dime super players have quit betting on racing and started playing FS? They get all sorts of abuse especially on track (mostly rightfully deserved) that they will say "screw it I can do this at home for the same amount and have hours of enjoyment."

Whales win almost all the money.

[thaskalos]

I think you're on to something here. I have never played FS but read a bunch of trade magazines who then link you to an avalanche of more information. The one consistent thing that comes across is that people using spreadsheets and put in countless hours coming up with players and teams have a HUGE edge over every other type of player. A guy like me has almost zero chance.

I have never seen them advertise a repeat winner again you are playing against 1%-2% of the field and it's still hard to win and or repeat. I have no idea if I'm right about this but wouldn't whales figure out a way to make a bunch of money investing?

I wonder how many dime super players have quit betting on racing and started playing FS? They get all sorts of abuse especially on track (mostly rightfully deserved) that they will say "screw it I can do this at home for the same amount and have hours of enjoyment."

I dare say that it isn't only the "dime super players" who would find an interest in FS at the expense of horse racing. The competition in Fantasy Sports might be fierce...but the "information" used is readily available for anyone who cares enough to search. That's hardly the case with our favorite game...

[Robert Goren]

There are two keys in daily fantasy 1) pick the right wide receiver. I am fond of the other receiver when the top guy on a team is facing a shut down corner. 2) Back up running backs or running backs sharing carries when the Starter/other back is out with an injury. You also need to look at fantasy points allowed by the opponent at each position. There are some shocking numbers with those stats.

[burnsy]

I think you're on to something here. I have never played FS but read a bunch of trade magazines who then link you to an avalanche of more information. The one consistent thing that comes across is that people using spreadsheets and put in countless hours coming up with players and teams have a HUGE edge over every other type of player. A guy like me has almost zero chance.

I have never seen them advertise a repeat winner again you are playing against 1%-2% of the field and it's still hard to win and or repeat. I have no idea if I'm right about this but wouldn't whales figure out a way to make a bunch of money investing?

I wonder how many dime super players have quit betting on racing and started playing FS? They get all sorts of abuse especially on track (mostly rightfully deserved) that they will say "screw it I can do this at home for the same amount and have hours of enjoyment."

Well, you definitely don't have to bet a lot. I am learning, but I did try to qualify for the big game in one of the ones I lost. Its like poker and horse racing, you can qualify for the big tournaments by winning selected smaller ones. There's a menu and the contests are different with different prices and prizes. You basically pick your poison. The whales play in the bigger money ones, there was one for 1600 or something like that and you could enter multiple times, there's others for 600 and many low ones for 3-25.

This was my first attempt and there were mistakes because I had to figure out what I was doing. But last night I was right up there even though I did have one blunder, on this better/second team. You only have to be in the top 10% to be even, and once you break past that the money goes up as you pass others. I won money the second team I played, believe me, there are serious people playing but there's also a ton of people that don't have a clue. Its a new craze and I know football pretty good. I'm a better football handicapper than at horses. I'm adding this to my betting along with already betting football straight anyway.

Robert is right about the receivers, they can really rack up points on a good day, more than anyone. Having Fitzgerald launched my score. That's where my "mismatch" theory comes in. I figured that Arizona would throttle the 49ers.....they are reeling...and they did. Thask and Robert are also correct the player's info is one click away. You can also try to figure out who will best their "Average" and buy them cheap. If you know a lot about football I think you have a fighting chance because there are many rookies doing this.

[Canarsie]

I dare say that it isn't only the "dime super players" who would find an interest in FS at the expense of horse racing. The competition in Fantasy Sports might be fierce...but the "information" used is readily available for anyone who cares enough to search. That's hardly the case with our favorite game...

The only reason I mentioned the dime super players is all the abuse they get in here and on ATM's. So many people are adamant about keeping it at a dollar some people will just say "screw it, I'll take my $25 somewhere else where its appreciated".

[Canarsie]

Well, you definitely don't have to bet a lot. I am learning, but I did try to qualify for the big game in one of the ones I lost. Its like poker and horse racing, you can qualify for the big tournaments by winning selected smaller ones. There's a menu and the contests are different with different prices and prizes. You basically pick your poison. The whales play in the bigger money ones, there was one for 1600 or something like that and you could enter multiple times, there's others for 600 and many low ones for 3-25.

This was my first attempt and there were mistakes because I had to figure out what I was doing. But last night I was right up there even though I did have one blunder, on this better/second team. You only have to be in the top 10% to be even, and once you break past that the money goes up as you pass others. I won money the second team I played, believe me, there are serious people playing but there's also a ton of people that don't have a clue. Its a new craze and I know football pretty good. I'm a better football handicapper than at horses. I'm adding this to my betting along with already betting football straight anyway.

Robert is right about the receivers, they can really rack up points on a good day, more than anyone. Having Fitzgerald launched my score. That's where my "mismatch" theory comes in. I figured that Arizona would throttle the 49ers.....they are reeling...and they did. Thask and Robert are also correct the player's info is one click away. You can also try to figure out who will best their "Average" and buy them cheap. If you know a lot about football I think you have a fighting chance because there are many rookies doing this.

I appreciate your commentary it's a fascinating read since I know zilch. Hope you cash out to a nice sum of money that would be a reward for making the time and effort to explain about it here.

[_______]

Neither FanDuel or DraftKings make it easy to find their rake. On the double ups, it easy enough to calculate (12.5%) but it looks like it approaches 15% on the ones that pay out large prizes.

The other thing I noticed is that another 24% of entry fees goes to paying the top 10 places in the sweepstakes. The larger the top prize, the more entries you see. I played in $5 sweepstakes contest last weekend along with 3 double ups. There were over 44,000 entrants for a $20,000 first prize.

If you aren't in the top 10 (4400-1), you are swimming against a 39% rake. The larger contests have over 300,000 plus entrants with the same 24% paid to the top 10.

I seriously doubt that anyone outside the house can consistently make money playing these games.

[ldiatone]

I tried it this week. Played 3 contests at Draft Kings. My first team was in 2 of them and did nadda. But my second team came in the money last night with Aaron Rodgers at QB and the Cardinals defense along with some high scoring skill players. The money was credited to my account this morning.

I'm in this now for sure because I think there's a ton of money from people that don't know what they are doing. Its so new and popular. My strategy is to find the most one sided games and concentrate on those players. My focus was on the Arizona Cardinals and the Green Bay Packers for that second team I played. They let you play a supplement player with your regular skill guys, I took Gronk in the one I lost because Brady threw most of the TD's to the unknowns last week. On the other one I did well with Jimmy Graham. Naturally, the first week I didn't really know what I was doing but one of my teams did make me money. You also have to find underlays, just like horses. I got Chris Johnson of the Cards cheap and he scored me 31 points. Larry Fitzgerald, no underlay on price, got me 37.4. The guy on TV might of won knowing nothing but you will have a big advantage if you do know how to scout the players to figure out if its their week to "crush" the opponent. That's the route I'm taking and I made money the first week, nothing big, but I was knocking on the door at winning the thing last night.
Burnsy, what dollar game did you play? i deposited 25.00 just to see what it was like. I am up to 33.00!! :jump: What does PMR stand for???
ldiat

[Valuist]

Burnsy, what dollar game did you play? i deposited 25.00 just to see what it was like. I am up to 33.00!! :jump: What does PMR stand for???
ldiat

Player Minutes Remaining. For MLB, its innings remaining.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Burnsy, what dollar game did you play? i deposited 25.00 just to see what it was like. I am up to 33.00!! :jump: What does PMR stand for???
ldiat

Don't forgot one of the golden rules of gambling, which is being teased by the Gods:

"When trying a new form of gambling, the player is allowed to win......a little.....at first."

[pandy]

In his Harness Racing Update column, Dean Towers mentioned that the takeout in Fantasy is about 8%. Can anyone confirm this? Are the takeout rates available?

[Canarsie]

Takeout from numerous google results is 8%-10% just like Pandy posted.



Takeout for playing fantasy sports is 8 to 10%

http://www.examiner.com/article/takeout-for-playing-fantasy-sports-is-8-to-10


I came across a very interesting article about FS maybe someone can confirm or state that it is folly. If they don't let you take out your money due to a minimum someone in congress will make sure they make it a campaign issue and will become a hero to many.

I Tried Daily Fantasy Sports And It Is Evil

http://deadspin.com/i-tried-daily-fantasy-sports-and-its-evil-1733840276

[pandy]

His blog take on this is interesting, and leads me to a question: Has anyone on this board won and withdrawn a decent amount of money on Fanduel or Draftkings?

[Aerocraft67]

The Deadspin article seems apt if not revelatory after hanging around here awhile. The minimum withdrawal certainly seems more costly in goodwill than saving any transaction cost for Draftkings. Good points earlier in the thread about the dubious constraints on proper gambling that have borne out DFS.

As with our parimutuel pools, I assume the whales and full-timers win most of the DFS money, but also that there is more dumb money left in DFS than racing—and growing. I reckon it's easier for sharp casual players to eke out a gain or at least sustain a fantasy sports pastime without going broke too quick.

I managed to break even on my first 12 entries in eight Draftkings contests, much shallower than my steep racing learning curve for sure. It's also refreshing to wager—er—enter contests on outcomes of popular sporting events, rather than the obscure anachronism the sport of kings has become, as charming as that is.

It will be interesting to see if fantasy sports can sustain anything popularly lucrative or just winds up another bleak venue of whale arbitrage. Maybe it's that already, and all the promotional activity is just keeping recruiting more dumb money. I guess the hope is to be sharp enough to get a little slice.

Like I said, it all sounds kind of familiar.

[horses4courses]

Just looking at the sideline of the Bears/Raiders game on tv here.
The thought occurred to me:
Are team coaching staffs allowed to play fantasy football?

If so, that doesn't seem right.
For those guys, slim difference between playing fantasy and betting.

[upthecreek]

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/05/opinion/rein-in-online-fantasy-sports-gambling.html?_r=0

[pandy]

The editorial is vague. If they think that these Fantasy betting companies are going to be shut down, no way that will ever happen. They could possibly go out of business, however, if sports betting becomes legal and they have to compete against the casinos.

These companies should, however, be regulated just as casinos and racetracks are. The editorial is correct in that the casinos and some politicians will try to use this to push for sports betting, but that hasn't destroyed the culture in Great Britain and other countries.

[horses4courses]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CP3grGGUkAAaYOU.jpg

[_______]

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/06/sports/fanduel-draftkings-fantasy-employees-bet-rivals.html?_r=0

The fact that no one at either company had a problem with employees who had inside information on the most common players used in contests playing at other sites is troubling.

Obviously, that is changing now. But clearly it hasn't been a level playing field in the big contests.

[Valuist]

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/06/sports/fanduel-draftkings-fantasy-employees-bet-rivals.html?_r=0

The fact that no one at either company had a problem with employees who had inside information on the most common players used in contests playing at other sites is troubling.

Obviously, that is changing now. But clearly it hasn't been a level playing field in the big contests.

This isn't going to be good for (their) business. Clearly, having data on the big players at DK and using that inside information at Fanduel may not be illegal, but is a clear conflict of interest. The large number of ads are putting some people off; this is kind of like a track where its discovered there was a "late" betting window open.

[Robert Goren]

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/06/sports/fanduel-draftkings-fantasy-employees-bet-rivals.html?_r=0

The fact that no one at either company had a problem with employees who had inside information on the most common players used in contests playing at other sites is troubling.

Obviously, that is changing now. But clearly it hasn't been a level playing field in the big contests. Exactly what inside information did these employees have. there is plenty of information on which player are trending which site on the net. It is not all that useful. The only thing I would worry about is employees entering teams after the games have started.

[Robert Goren]

A couple of things. It appears to me that it easier win money on Fan Duel than it is on Draft Kings. Poker players think Party Poker to Poker Stars. Two; If you have to lock in your line up for the week, it is probably wise not to start with the Thursday game. Too many thing can happen before Sunday. I believe Draft Kings let you remove and replace players that were not on teams playing Thursday, but Fan Duel does not.

[Valuist]

Exactly what inside information did these employees have. there is plenty of information on which player are trending which site on the net. It is not all that useful. The only thing I would worry about is employees entering teams after the games have started.

From what I understand, the employees had tracking information on the Draft Kings players. Probably piggybacked the top DK players right onto the Fanduel tournament. Illegal? No, but it isn't gonna do much for their image; especially with the barrage of ads trying to portray that "anyone" can win big.

[_______]

The likely play wouldn't be to populate your roster with popular players but to use the information to choose the less popular player with similar upside.

If you have that information, you would just grind out multiple entries with the high upside/low usage players week after week and let the law of large numbers work in your favor.

RG: What websites are you referencing that have this data? Neither FanDuel or DraftKings are releasing it until after the contests start (excepting the "accidental" release referenced in the NYT story).

[GameTheory]

Yes, who is getting drafted at what percentage would give you a huge advantage if you knew what to do with that information.

Still, my limited experience with these sites so far is that it is easy money at the lower levels (which means it is not a lot of money, but still) -- the cheap 50/50s, Double-Ups, and H2Hs -- possibly because of the flood of new players, especially for NFL. I imagine daily NBA and MLB involve stiffer competition. NFL is complicated enough to be possibly a little overwhelming to a newbie who might be prone to pick favorite teams and players, more games involved with different scoring for different types of players, etc. Maybe it is beginner's luck (universal gambling law as mentioned above), or maybe my instincts honed at horse racing for beating the crowd. Because I don't know dick about football, literally nothing (I haven't watched a game in maybe 30 years and pay zero attention to it), and I am having trouble losing. I'm just making snap judgements about what a winning lineup (or rather, a not losing lineup) should look like based on the stats. Just dabbling so far though, so no firm conclusions, it could all go sour quickly. Although compared to horse racing where it is easy to go on a losing streak that will wipe you out quickly, when betting on 50/50 or head-to-head style games I'm still going to win about half the time so my ruin will take longer.

However, I'm working with a client who is more experienced and serious (which is how I got into dabbling) and they don't work too hard on their lineups either and seem to break even or win significantly every week. You can crunch numbers all day if you want to, but just a basic sound strategy and a little gambling sense seems to be enough right now. I have a feeling this is a "strike while the iron is hot" situation: with the flood of marketing bringing all these new players and the as yet unregulated nature of it, it may be easy pickings for an experienced gambler for the time being, even if they are not experts at fantasy...

[Valuist]

They are clearly going to have to bar their employees from playing daily fantasy. Just too much room for inside information.

I don't think its a slam dunk both companies go public to big IPOs. Quite a few people are getting turned off by the barrage of ads. And a scandal like this only hurts their credibility.

[Poindexter]

Just looking at the sideline of the Bears/Raiders game on tv here.
The thought occurred to me:
Are team coaching staffs allowed to play fantasy football?

If so, that doesn't seem right.
For those guys, slim difference between playing fantasy and betting.



:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: I can just imagine the conversations on the sideline during a 31-3 game. Okay guys we are up 31-3 we have the game iced, who do you guys need for your fantasy team. I think you are kidding yourself if you do not think this stuff is going to go on as this fantasy shit gets more popular and mainstream. "whats the difference who I play when we are up 31-3" . Also if you do not think that assistant coaches and such are not going to be involved in leaking info and playing fantasy themselves to capitalize on their insider knowledge you are really delusional. I look forward to the day this completely blows up in the NFL's face.

[highnote]

Don't forgot one of the golden rules of gambling, which is being teased by the Gods:

"When trying a new form of gambling, the player is allowed to win......a little.....at first."


Winning the first time I try a new gambling game has happened to me so often that I am ready to believe it is an immutable law. Unfortunately, it only applies to new gambling games. After the second or third time there is the inevitable losing streak -- also seems to be an immutable law.

After that, it takes hard work to win consistently. The third immutable law.

Maybe these should be called "The Three Immutable Laws of Gambling".

[Poindexter]

Exactly what inside information did these employees have. there is plenty of information on which player are trending which site on the net. It is not all that useful. The only thing I would worry about is employees entering teams after the games have started.

Exactly how do we know this isn't happening.

[GameTheory]

Exactly how do we know this isn't happening.
Because as soon as a game starts any players from that game that are used become visible/public. What we can't know about is just what happened here -- using information that is not yet public about what everyone is is doing in order to help you pick your team. (Which they play on another site, not the one they work for -- but of course they could buddies with someone at that site trading info.) But past-posting would be noticed very quickly (because you'd have to wait for some stuff to happen in the game before changing your lineup and your opponents can already see your lineup as far as that game goes the instant it starts).

[highnote]

They are clearly going to have to bar their employees from playing daily fantasy. Just too much room for inside information.

I don't think its a slam dunk both companies go public to big IPOs. Quite a few people are getting turned off by the barrage of ads. And a scandal like this only hurts their credibility.


It is interesting that Jerry Jones and Robert Kraft hold stakes in these companies.

[sammy the sage]

2% of the people so-called playing take home 90% of the money....it's a fantasy for YOU to win...much like lotto...

Still...you can't catch a fish w/out hook in the water...(well maybe a fly fish or jumping mullet)....

B.O.L. to those who play and donate...

[Robert Goren]

Exactly how do we know this isn't happening. We don't any more than we know it is not happening at Belmont. In racing, they have caught doing it at smaller tracks and in the Breeders Cup. There are cheats in every kind of gambling. It is part of it. You either live with it or don't gamble. The best you can hope for is that powers that be are looking for it. Personally I feel that the fantasy site are doing a better job than the race tracks, but I do not have any evidence other than racing has been caught in past posting in the past and daily fantasy has been yet.

[Robert Goren]

2% of the people so-called playing take home 90% of the money....it's a fantasy for YOU to win...much like lotto...

Still...you can't catch a fish w/out hook in the water...(well maybe a fly fish or jumping mullet)....

B.O.L. to those who play and donate... Where did you get those numbers?...... and are they any better in horse racing?

[Robert Goren]

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: I can just imagine the conversations on the sideline during a 31-3 game. Okay guys we are up 31-3 we have the game iced, who do you guys need for your fantasy team. I think you are kidding yourself if you do not think this stuff is going to go on as this fantasy shit gets more popular and mainstream. "whats the difference who I play when we are up 31-3" . Also if you do not think that assistant coaches and such are not going to be involved in leaking info and playing fantasy themselves to capitalize on their insider knowledge you are really delusional. I look forward to the day this completely blows up in the NFL's face. It not like trainers, grooms, etc don't bet on inside information at the track. I used to some trainers who made far more money betting on horses than they did training them.

[cj]

It not like trainers, grooms, etc don't bet on inside information at the track. I used to some trainers who made far more money betting on horses than they did training them.


I'd love to book all backstretch betting.

[thaskalos]

I'd love to book all backstretch betting.
Get in line.

[green80]

It not like trainers, grooms, etc don't bet on inside information at the track. I used to some trainers who made far more money betting on horses than they did training them.

Although I'm sure that there are a lot of trainers that bet, most of the big trainers that I know (and I know many) DO NOT bet on their horses. The talk about backside money or stable money is highly overrated. Now owner money is a different story but I don't think that money is any smarter than the average Joe.

The most valuable info that I get from trainers is when they tell me not to bet on their horse today.

[Robert Goren]

I'd love to book all backstretch betting. I have not been part of a backstretch inside since 1970s, so I don't know about today's backstretch. In the 1960s, you would not have wanted to be booking it, if it was done by anyone other than a owner. People confuse betting by owners with the betting done by the real backstretch people like trainers, grooms, hot walkers, vets, etc and their wives. In the 1960s, those people would have starved if were not for the money they made betting. They did bet much because they didn't have much to bet, but when they did bet they seldom lost unless something went wrong like a horse going down. There is so much money being passed around because slot fueled purses these days, maybe things are a little more on the up and up, but I doubt it.

[Robert Goren]

Although I'm sure that there are a lot of trainers that bet, most of the big trainers that I know (and I know many) DO NOT bet on their horses. The talk about backside money or stable money is highly overrated. Now owner money is a different story but I don't think that money is any smarter than the average Joe.

The most valuable info that I get from trainers is when they tell me not to bet on their horse today A trainer is not going to the " average joe" anything useful. If you get anything useful, it coming from one of the workers. You are right, many of the big name trainers do not bet, but most of the small ones do or at least they used to. I used to have index cards with notes on most of the trainers on the Nebraska circuit and the stuff they pulled. They were very predictable on some of their stunts. In the days before simulcasting, a smart ticket seller could also do very well just by being observant.

[Ruffian1]

I'd love to book all backstretch betting.

Can I get in on that?

Talk about easy money.

[lamboguy]

i don't know if i can be considered "backstretch money". but for this year i wish there were a few guys that would have stepped up to the plate and booked me on first time starter's. i think they would be way under the either by now and would have a very tough time waking up to the oxygen.

[Ruffian1]

i don't know if i can be considered "backstretch money". but for this year i wish there were a few guys that would have stepped up to the plate and booked me on first time starter's. i think they would be way under the either by now and would have a very tough time waking up to the oxygen.

Lol. No, not you.

You are feeling your oats from your win yesterday aren't you?:D

Good for you.:ThmbUp: Congrats on your win.

[sammy the sage]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/millionaire-sports-gambler-explains-why-180100740.html

basically a gambler explaining not gambling but taking YOUR money in fantasy sports...