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horses4courses
09-02-2015, 09:05 PM
Saturday's Woodward field is interesting, but short of spectacular.

All entries listed here:
https://www.nyra.com/saratoga/entries/20150905/#race10

RACE 10 5:47 PM
STAKES Woodward S.
Purse $600,000 FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. By subscription of $600 each which should accompany the nomination; $3,000 to pass the entry box and an additional $3,000 to start. For horses not originally nominated, a supplemental fee of $6,000 along with the entry andstarting fees may be made at any time prior to the closing of entries. The purse to be divided 60% to the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 5% to fourth, 3% to fifth and 2% divided equally amongst the remaining finishers. Weights: Three-year-olds, 120lbs.; older, 124 lbs. Non-winners of two Grade I races at a mile or over in 2014-15 allowed 2 lbs.; of such a race in 2014-15 allowed 4 lbs.; of $60,000 at a mile or over in 2015 allowed 6 lbs. The estate of Mrs. William Woodward, Sr. to add the WoodwardChallenge Cup, to be won three times, not necessarily consecutively, by the same owner before becoming his or her property. The owner of the winner will also receive a trophy for permanent possession and trophies will be presented to the winning trainerand jockey. Closed Saturday August 22, 2015 with 27 Nominations.1 1/8 Miles (Dirt)

PP
1 Wicked Strong (KY) 4/C L L Saez 122 J A. Jerkens
2 Liam's Map (KY) 4/C L J Castellano 118 T A. Pletcher
3 Commanding Curve (KY) 4/R L S Bridgmohan 118 D Stewart
4 Bay of Plenty (KY) 4/C L J Rosario 120 K P. McLaughlin
5 Mylute (KY) 5/H L I Ortiz, Jr. 118 T A. Pletcher
6 Coach Inge (KY) 4/G L J R. Velazquez 120 T A. Pletcher
7 Effinex (NY) 4/C L J Alvarado 120 J A. Jerkens
8 Protonico (KY) 4/C L J L. Ortiz 120 T A. Pletcher

Owners: 1 - Centennial Farms; 2 - Teresa Viola Racing Stables; 3 - West Point Thoroughbreds; 4 - Godolphin Racing LLC; 5 - GoldMark Farm, LLC and Whisper Hill Farm; 6 - Repole Stable; 7 - Tri-Bone Stables; 8 - Sumaya U.S. Stable
Breeders: 1 - William F. Lynn; 2 - Albaugh Family Stable LLC; 3 - T. F. VanMeter; 4 - Darley; 5 - Mike G. Rutherford; 6 - Paul Pompa Jr.; 7 - Dr. Russell S. Cohen; 8 - International Equities Holding, Inc.

Tom
09-02-2015, 09:17 PM
Beyer 105.

Beat the rush. :rolleyes:

thespaah
09-02-2015, 10:09 PM
Saturday's Woodward field is interesting, but short of spectacular.

All entries listed here:
https://www.nyra.com/saratoga/entries/20150905/#race10
Mylute....getting 6lbs....Which means has hasn't diddly in two years..
So why is this horse in a Grade 1?
Channeling my inner Ed Rooney...."Something's going on here G** Dammit"
Or am I reading the allowances incorrectly?

arw629
09-02-2015, 10:31 PM
Liam's Map to the house?!

cj
09-02-2015, 10:33 PM
No Honor Code, no Tonalist...racing in 2015. A month just isn't enough time. Used to be two weeks was fine. We'll get a watered down JCGC next. I used to think the Breeder's Cup hurt the other races, but I'm starting to think we'd still get fields like this. Thank goodness for the Breeder's Cup or we'd never see big, competitive fields.

I've also read Honor Code might go in the Kelso instead of the JCGC. Really?

Robert Fischer
09-02-2015, 10:56 PM
What's the story with Coach Inge? Wasn't he scratched in the Whitney?

I'd have to guess that Liam's Map was kicking down the stall and Todd knew it would be silly to have Coach Inge pull a frosted on Liam's Map.

So what now? Change of tactics for Coach Inge?

iceknight
09-03-2015, 02:25 AM
I am going out on a limb and feeling that :7: Effinex gets this. 7with 2,8 for the exotics

rastajenk
09-03-2015, 07:07 AM
I'll be interested to see if Liam's Map is a real deal. After the Whitney I asked if a single placing in a graded stakes was enough to get into the Classic, and I'm still wondering. Although with half the field being from one barn, I suppose they can achieve whatever outcome they want. This may not be the spot where I get the proof I seek. :cool:

EMD4ME
09-03-2015, 10:29 AM
I'll be interested to see if Liam's Map is a real deal. After the Whitney I asked if a single placing in a graded stakes was enough to get into the Classic, and I'm still wondering. Although with half the field being from one barn, I suppose they can achieve whatever outcome they want. This may not be the spot where I get the proof I seek. :cool:

I too am interested in seeing what Liam's Map does in the Whitney. Very interested.

The track has changed since AP came to town. Much more fair to speed.

Robert Fischer
09-03-2015, 10:56 AM
I was surprised by Liam's Map.
He's one of the division stars now.

Coach Inge hasn't really put everything together, but in terms of raw 'performance', he's among the most talented horses. Will be interesting to see what tactics are employed, or if he'll simply be used as a rabbit.

Bay Of Plenty has some speed. I don't know his races as well from memory, but he should be near the pace.

Would be nice to see Wicked Strong regain his form here as well.

ronsmac
09-03-2015, 11:53 AM
No Honor Code, no Tonalist...racing in 2015. A month just isn't enough time. Used to be two weeks was fine. We'll get a watered down JCGC next. I used to think the Breeder's Cup hurt the other races, but I'm starting to think we'd still get fields like this. Thank goodness for the Breeder's Cup or we'd never see big, competitive fields.

I've also read Honor Code might go in the Kelso instead of the JCGC. Really?I'm guessing they want to keep Honor Codes options open, Bc mile or classic. If they choose classic the last thing they would want is a tough race in the JCGC, or6so it seems. Its2best to be at 100% for a 5mil race.

PoloUK6108
09-03-2015, 02:01 PM
Looking for a good price on Bay of Plenty..Liam's Map will make the exacta

letswastemoney
09-03-2015, 02:18 PM
Looking for a good price on Bay of Plenty..Liam's Map will make the exactaBay of Plenty always runs near or on the lead. If a speed horse quits, I would think Bay of Plenty will be the first one to go.

The only question for me is how much he softens up Liam's Map and whether a closer is good enough to capitalize.

I picked out Effinex, although it's not an exciting choice.

classhandicapper
09-03-2015, 03:44 PM
There's plenty of speed (at least before scratches), but not so clear how the race will develop because Pletcher trains a few of the potential pressers.

ILovetheInner
09-03-2015, 08:43 PM
I've also read Honor Code might go in the Kelso instead of the JCGC. Really?

Well it's McGaughey, so whatever the reasons are they aren't likely stupid. Although off of a weaker effort, they did shorten him to one mile prior to stretching out for the Whitney. Perhaps the success of that pattern is a reason, although of course who is to say. For a horse like him, keeping him sharper might not be a bad thought. I am happy because I like him, and being untried at ten before the big day might not hurt his price.

thespaah
09-03-2015, 11:04 PM
No Honor Code, no Tonalist...racing in 2015. A month just isn't enough time. Used to be two weeks was fine. We'll get a watered down JCGC next. I used to think the Breeder's Cup hurt the other races, but I'm starting to think we'd still get fields like this. Thank goodness for the Breeder's Cup or we'd never see big, competitive fields.

I've also read Honor Code might go in the Kelso instead of the JCGC. Really?
I think the BC has KILLED the Fall graded stakes races...Especially at Belmont.
I've got programs sitting in a box right over my left shoulder that are from the early 80's that show the best vs the best.....

andtheyreoff
09-03-2015, 11:51 PM
I think the BC has KILLED the Fall graded stakes races...Especially at Belmont.
I've got programs sitting in a box right over my left shoulder that are from the early 80's that show the best vs the best.....

Ah yes, the myth that the Breeders' Cup "killed" fall racing.

Fact: from 1978 to 1980, the "big three" fall stakes at Belmont Park (JCGC, Marlboro Cup, Woodward) had a field with more than seven horses once (1980 Marlboro). Even looking beyond those years, field sizes in those races were not dissimilar to what they are now. The 1983 Jockey Club Gold Cup drew ten horses: a figure matched or eclipsed in two out of the past three runnings.

So, frankly, spare me.

Tom
09-04-2015, 04:30 PM
6 of 8 horse trained by two guys?
Isn't that special?

classhandicapper
09-04-2015, 04:58 PM
6 of 8 horse trained by two guys?
Isn't that special?

If you are trying to figure out how the race is going to develop (which could be critical in this race) this is a bit of a dilemma.

Tom
09-04-2015, 05:27 PM
No problem there.
I'll see it on the replays Tuesday.

I am betting Ky Down tomorrow - nothing at Toga of any interest whatsoever.

cj
09-04-2015, 09:21 PM
I think the BC has KILLED the Fall graded stakes races...Especially at Belmont.
I've got programs sitting in a box right over my left shoulder that are from the early 80's that show the best vs the best.....

Yes, but horses raced back then and they did after the advent of the BC too. But I don't think today's trainers are going to race a lot and will duck big G1s BC or no BC...I see it all the time.

thespaah
09-04-2015, 11:43 PM
Ah yes, the myth that the Breeders' Cup "killed" fall racing.

Fact: from 1978 to 1980, the "big three" fall stakes at Belmont Park (JCGC, Marlboro Cup, Woodward) had a field with more than seven horses once (1980 Marlboro). Even looking beyond those years, field sizes in those races were not dissimilar to what they are now. The 1983 Jockey Club Gold Cup drew ten horses: a figure matched or eclipsed in two out of the past three runnings.

So, frankly, spare me.
Wasn't referring necessarily to the number of starters, but the quality of fields as well.
for example.
Here's the field for the 1984 Turf Classic
Defending Champ All Along.....Four Bases....John Henry. The upstart former claimer Win.....Majesty's Prince....
A week earlier....
The Woodward..
Mugatea and stable mate Slew O' Gold.....Bounding Basque....Canadian Factor...Bet Big......Fit to Fight...Shifty Sheik.
Slew O' Gold the highweight at 126 lbs won over Shifty Sheik with Bet Big 3rd
Just at random I pulled this program.....
1981 Medowlands Cup at 10f.....Drew a field of 14 this night. Included were,
Peat Moss ..Silver Buck, 1980 Belmont winner Temperance Hill, Multiple graded stakes winners Jameela and Joanie's Chief...
1981 Jockey Club Gold Cup....
Here's a real crappy field
1 Joanie's Chief
2, Relaxing
3. Hechizado
4.Temperance Hill
5. Summing
6. Amber Pass
7. Noble Nashua
8 John Henry
9 Silver Buck
10 Peat Moss.
John Henry took this one by a lip over Peat Moss( 50-1) with the mare Relaxing 3rd....
5 of those were back at it again three weeks later at The Meadowlands in the aforementioned Medowlands Cup....
So the problem lies where?

thespaah
09-04-2015, 11:51 PM
Yes, but horses raced back then and they did after the advent of the BC too. But I don't think today's trainers are going to race a lot and will duck big G1s BC or no BC...I see it all the time.
Not saying good matchups of top horses didn't happen after BC 1...
My point is the later in the season, the less frequent these good matchups of top horses become....
Here's one example of a really stacked field. And this one was well after the BC got off the ground....
1988 Woodward....
Personal Flag, Forty Niner, Cryptoclearance, Alysheba, Waquoit...
Alysheba broke the track record for 10f in this one stopping the timer in 1:59:2
My point is that the autumn graded stakes matchups were much more memorable.

thespaah
09-04-2015, 11:55 PM
6 of 8 horse trained by two guys?
Isn't that special?
Well, a lot of people complained about coupled entries, so the rules were changed so horses entered to start out of the same barn did not have to be coupled in graded races.

thespaah
09-05-2015, 12:00 AM
Ah yes, the myth that the Breeders' Cup "killed" fall racing.

Fact: from 1978 to 1980, the "big three" fall stakes at Belmont Park (JCGC, Marlboro Cup, Woodward) had a field with more than seven horses once (1980 Marlboro). Even looking beyond those years, field sizes in those races were not dissimilar to what they are now. The 1983 Jockey Club Gold Cup drew ten horses: a figure matched or eclipsed in two out of the past three runnings.

So, frankly, spare me.
"So, frankly, spare me."
BTW, the purpose of the hostility is...?

ILovetheInner
09-05-2015, 05:28 AM
I agree with CJ that these days BC or not, ducking G1s is just more of the times. However, part of what stacked the dominoes that way was indeed, IMO, the Breeders Cup. Given that in recent years half the champion older male honors have gone to turf horses, and in that same six year time frame one male winner of the BCC had more than one other G1 win during his year is, well, ya know.

Lemon Drop Husker
09-05-2015, 07:49 AM
:4: Bay of Plenty is the key horse in this race for me. I don't see any reason why they would even try to rate BoP, so IMO he has to be sent to have any chance of winning, much less hitting the board.

Can he breath enough pace into this thing to wear down :2: Liam's Map and :6: Coach Inge? Also playing against the :2: after his monster effort in the Whitney.

This makes the :5: Mylute, the :7: Effinex, and the :8: Protonico as my win contenders and 2/3rds of the Trifecta. Would love to get the :8: at the ML of 12/1, even with the layoff.

RacingFan1992
09-05-2015, 07:58 AM
No Honor Code, no Tonalist...racing in 2015. A month just isn't enough time. Used to be two weeks was fine. We'll get a watered down JCGC next. I used to think the Breeder's Cup hurt the other races, but I'm starting to think we'd still get fields like this. Thank goodness for the Breeder's Cup or we'd never see big, competitive fields.

I've also read Honor Code might go in the Kelso instead of the JCGC. Really?

Why would they run him in a mile turf race? It doesn't make sense. Id like to see him rum in the JCGC. I think the connections of American Pharoah, Beholder, Honor Code to name a few are going to be very picky of where the next starts are going to be. I'm looking forward to this years Classic.

cj
09-05-2015, 08:08 AM
Why would they run him in a mile turf race? It doesn't make sense.

It has been run on dirt for a few years, since 2010 or so.

Tor Ekman
09-05-2015, 08:48 AM
Good spot for :1: to be overlooked

:1: win

Ex box :1:/:2:

Tri :1:/:2: w:1:/:2:w:4:/:7:/:8:

andtheyreoff
09-05-2015, 10:27 AM
"So, frankly, spare me."
BTW, the purpose of the hostility is...?

Nothing against you, it's just that I hear it all the time, so to hear it ONE MORE TIME can drive me crazy. Nothing personal.

As to field sizes: of course it matters. I don't care who was running; if this year's Woodward Stakes drew a four or five-horse field, people would be rioting. Yet, that happened back in the day, and it wasn't often where field sizes exceeded more than eight or nine horses...for "championship" races. With the Breeders' Cup Classic, it's rare to see a field with fewer than twelve horses (btw, in its first six runnings, the Classic had a field bigger than twelve only once).

btw, for today's race Coach Inge is a lock.

raybo
09-05-2015, 01:09 PM
Well, it appears that they'll have to come get Liam's Map from the 2nd call on, assuming he gets a good start of course. I like the horse as his numbers have been improving with every race. But, after his new big top in the Whitney, I have my doubts that he can repeat it. Maybe he won't have to repeat it, who knows? Generally, I'm not crazy about speed at Saratoga, and there should be at least a bit of pressure by one or two.

I'm favoring :8: :7: for the win. :8: because he has been close or on the lead in his last two, but before that was further off, telling me he can lay wherever he needs to. :7: because he's likely to be right there with :8: at the top of the stretch. I guess what I'm saying is that, the speed will tire in the stretch, and leave the door open for horses sitting right behind them.

If Liam's Map's odds are 3/1 or so (which I don't think they will be) I'd feel much better putting him on top, but if he goes off at 2/1 or lower I just can't support the risk, even though he might run another good number.

Summary: I will be rooting for Liam's Map, but betting against him.

Robert Fischer
09-05-2015, 01:16 PM
Before the Whitney , I had Coach Inge better than Liam's Map and as a potential BC Classic winner.

Then in the Whitney Liam's Map ran huge. LM is now one of the top bullets in TAP's barn.

So it confuses me that both are entered in the Woodward.

Everyone including the barn has to be favoring LM. Are they going to try to rate LM back? I can't predict the pace here. I can only 'guess' that Coach will stay out of the way. Maybe I'm wrong.

Aerocraft67
09-05-2015, 01:24 PM
I like the :8: , with a suitable, versatile running style and a juicy sixth choice on the ML, but I can't imagine 12/1 holds up. I also think the favorite looks legitimate. The :7: is a logical choice for second but will probably be bet down too hard for that. I liked :6: for the Whitney, out of which it scratched. Looks good here, too, on the pace but not burned by it.

I agree the :4: plays a pivotal role here. Seems to need the lead but I can't see how it gets that from :2:. Surely :2: can overcome that challenge, but will it be softened enough for :6: , :7: , or :8: to prevail? Odds on to win, I suppose it's worth a shot against. But the ML seems pretty reasonable. Of the three potential upsetters I like :7: the least. In addition to questionable value, it seems to thrive more at longer distances, although it has won earlier in its career at 9f.

Considering a :6: :8: / :2: :6: :7: :8: / :2: :6: :7: :8: type play.

raybo
09-05-2015, 01:33 PM
Before the Whitney , I had Coach Inge better than Liam's Map and as a potential BC Classic winner.

Then in the Whitney Liam's Map ran huge. LM is now one of the top bullets in TAP's barn.

So it confuses me that both are entered in the Woodward.

Everyone including the barn has to be favoring LM. Are they going to try to rate LM back? I can't predict the pace here. I can only 'guess' that Coach will stay out of the way. Maybe I'm wrong.

It's not always the trainer's decision. The owners also have their say in where their horses run. I'm not a Pletcher fan anyway, and often disagree with the way his horses run their races, regarding pace.

This is why I am afraid of the speed in this race, and at Saratoga in general. While lone speed can win here, it's tough when there is other speed in the race, especially at Saratoga. Of course, we don't know for sure which horses will battle for the lead, or if there will be a battle at all. We are at the mercy of the unknown here. I doubt Liam's Map will rate, and I doubt the others will let him have the lead to himself. I think Coach Inge lays close and pressures him (and maybe Bay Of Plenty, too), much like AP and Frosted in the Travers.

Tom
09-05-2015, 04:07 PM
Busy at other tracks today, so I will just play the Weston Method in here.
To be a contender in a Gr1 race, you need a 110 Beyer.

Liam's Map stands alone.

Basically tied his 2014 tops first time out this year.
He could bounce, he could run a 120 Beyer, if he is in the mood to give one.

I'll say he moves ahead in here, at least pairing up with a 111-114.

Probably no bet.

Tom
09-05-2015, 04:14 PM
So it confuses me that both are entered in the Woodward.

Looks like Todd entered his whole stable in it. :D

Redboard
09-05-2015, 04:53 PM
The book say that when there's three or more speed in a race, look for a closer. Track seems to be playing fair today.Give me #5 My Lute WP.

Aerocraft67
09-05-2015, 05:27 PM
:6: Coach Inge dead on the board??

five-eighths
09-05-2015, 05:42 PM
Like the :2: to hit the board with the value of the :5:

EMD4ME
09-05-2015, 05:42 PM
:6: Coach Inge dead on the board??

My prediction, he wins.

Liam's Map will save for the BCC, will lead but not gut bust himself.

4 stalks in 2nd, with Coach Inge in the Garden Spot.

Speeds holding, he makes 1st run and holds on.

If Liams Map crushes em, I'll be sad despite loving him because I'll be afraid of a bounce in the BCC.

Tom
09-05-2015, 05:43 PM
Busy at other tracks today, so I will just play the Weston Method in here.
To be a contender in a Gr1 race, you need a 110 Beyer.

Liam's Map stands alone.

Basically tied his 2014 tops second time out this year.
He could bounce, he could run a 120 Beyer, if he is in the mood to give one.

I'll say he moves ahead in here, at least pairing up with a 111-114.

Probably no bet.

Effinex looks like he can get up to fill out the exacta.

Aerocraft67
09-05-2015, 05:46 PM
:6: Win, Place
:2: :8: / :6: exacta
:2: :8: / :2: :7: :8: / :6: trifecta

Robert Fischer
09-05-2015, 05:46 PM
i've got it: liam's map mylute coach inge wicked strong

Lemon Drop Husker
09-05-2015, 05:57 PM
Walked.

Talented talented horse and serious contender in the BC Classic.

Aerocraft67
09-05-2015, 05:59 PM
Walked.

Talented talented horse and serious contender in the BC Classic.

It was hard to believe he'd have it all to himself but it was a plausible scenario in advance and indeed what came to pass.

EMD4ME
09-05-2015, 06:00 PM
Walked.

Talented talented horse and serious contender in the BC Classic.

I'll say it now, IF he makes it to the BCC classic, not only will AP lose, HE WILL BE OFF THE BOARD.

Liam's Map is WAY too talented and after he puts away AP on the far turn, AP will be toast.

Lemon Drop Husker
09-05-2015, 06:02 PM
It was hard to believe he'd have it all to himself but it was a plausible scenario in advance and indeed what came to pass.

Absolutely.

Didn't figure they'd pressure the :2: with the :6:, so it all came down to the :4:. He just wasn't fast enough to even contend with LM much less make him work for the first mile.

Race was over after 4Fs.

Lemon Drop Husker
09-05-2015, 06:04 PM
I'll say it now, IF he makes it to the BCC classic, not only will AP lose, HE WILL BE OFF THE BOARD.

Liam's Map is WAY too talented and after he puts away AP on the far turn, AP will be toast.

I just hope we get to see Liam's Map and American Pharoah in the gate come the BC Classic. Toss in Honor Code, and we have a seriously legit Classic.

Please, please let it happen racing Gods cuz you haven't been too kind to us thus far this year in the older division.

raybo
09-05-2015, 06:19 PM
1st quarter was faster than I liked, but after that it was all Liam's Map's race to lose. They let him have an easy lead, bad mistake!

raybo
09-05-2015, 06:21 PM
I just hope we get to see Liam's Map and American Pharoah in the gate come the BC Classic. Toss in Honor Code, and we have a seriously legit Classic.

Please, please let it happen racing Gods cuz you haven't been too kind to us thus far this year in the older division.

I have a funny feeling he won't run in the BCC but rather opt for the mile.

FantasticDan
09-05-2015, 06:28 PM
I have a funny feeling he won't run in the BCC but rather opt for the mile.Does your feeling have something to do with the owner saying as much? :p

Owner also said he'd leave it up to Todd to ultimately decide.

thaskalos
09-05-2015, 06:44 PM
"...and never the twain shall meet."

RXB
09-05-2015, 06:52 PM
Classic $5 million purse vs. Dirt Mile $1 million, and if he wins the Classic the stud fee for Liam's Map will jump considerably compared to a Dirt Mile win.

Dirt Mile is really a bastardized sprint this year (roughly 7.5 furlongs); with two strong 9f races under his belt I think that they'll put him into the Classic.

Redboard
09-05-2015, 06:55 PM
Classic $5 million purse vs. Dirt Mile $1 million, and if he wins the Classic the stud fee for Liam's Map will jump considerably compared to a Dirt Mile win.

Dirt Mile is really a bastardized sprint this year (roughly 7.5 furlongs); with two strong 9f races under his belt I think that they'll put him into the Classic.

I agree. At this point, there's like zero speed in the Classic, it might be easier to win.

Redboard
09-05-2015, 06:59 PM
I just hope we get to see Liam's Map and American Pharoah in the gate come the BC Classic. Toss in Honor Code, and we have a seriously legit Classic.

Please, please let it happen racing Gods cuz you haven't been too kind to us thus far this year in the older division.

You're preachin to the Choir!!!

And please add Beholder and Keen Ice to the mix, it would be the best BCC of the century.

Spalding No!
09-05-2015, 07:08 PM
Ah yes, the myth that the Breeders' Cup "killed" fall racing.

Fact: from 1978 to 1980, the "big three" fall stakes at Belmont Park (JCGC, Marlboro Cup, Woodward) had a field with more than seven horses once (1980 Marlboro). Even looking beyond those years, field sizes in those races were not dissimilar to what they are now. The 1983 Jockey Club Gold Cup drew ten horses: a figure matched or eclipsed in two out of the past three runnings.

So, frankly, spare me.

I like this. You cherry picked 1978 through 1980.

You know, when Seattle Slew was facing Affirmed in those races and a year later Affirmed was facing Spectacular Bid in those races and a year later Spectacular Bid was facing no one else in those races. Three titans of the turf. Of course they had small fields.

But let's do some real number crunching with 1984, the year of the first BC, as the limit line. I'll even keep in Spectacular Bid's hilarious walkover in the 1980 Woodward and ignore the fact that the Woodward was run at 12f for several years and the JCGC at 2 miles (you might even blame some of the distance changes of the JCGC on a desire to "fit in" with the BC as a mere prep race).

Woodward b/w 1974-1983 avg field size = 7.8
Woodward b/w 1984-2015 avg field size = 6.6

Jockey Club Gold Cup b/w 1974-1983 avg field size = 8.4
Jockey Club Gold Cup b/w 1984-2015 avg field size = 6.8

RXB
09-05-2015, 07:17 PM
I agree. At this point, there's like zero speed in the Classic, it might be easier to win.

Depends on who enters. American Pharoah and Beholder have plenty of early speed.

Beholder as a 2YO filly: gate-to-wire in 21.5 44.0 56.0 1:09.0, a 108 Beyer off of fast fractions. :eek:

Lemon Drop Husker
09-05-2015, 07:46 PM
You're preachin to the Choir!!!

And please add Beholder and Keen Ice to the mix, it would be the best BCC of the century.

Good grief.

I need to :D at myself for not including Beholder in that comment.

Man am I getting geared up for Keeneland this year. Gonna be greatness.

Fager Fan
09-05-2015, 08:51 PM
She's 5. Speed at 2 isn't proof of the speed she has now. I won't say she hasn't any, but there's no way Mandella would have her prompting the pace with LM and AP in there.

We also have to remember that they may choose to run in the Distaff. The tougher the Classic looks, the more likely she bypasses. She doesn't need it for her broodmare value.

Fager Fan
09-05-2015, 08:55 PM
Classic $5 million purse vs. Dirt Mile $1 million, and if he wins the Classic the stud fee for Liam's Map will jump considerably compared to a Dirt Mile win.

Dirt Mile is really a bastardized sprint this year (roughly 7.5 furlongs); with two strong 9f races under his belt I think that they'll put him into the Classic.

I agree with you but also would note that being by UBS limits his stud value. As brilliant as he was as a sire, his offspring have been underwhelming at stud. He may have a $3-5m cap on stallion value at this point.

Redboard
09-05-2015, 09:29 PM
Her next move might tell us something. I believe she’s aiming for the $300k Zenyatta(G1) at Santa Anita on 9/26, which she won last year in a hand ride. If they were serious about the BCC, I would think that they would opt for something tougher.

horses4courses
09-05-2015, 09:38 PM
Her next move might tell us something. I believe she’s aiming for the $300k Zenyatta(G1) at Santa Anita on 9/26, which she won last year in a hand ride. If they were serious about the BCC, I would think that they would opt for something tougher.

Why would you want to aim for a tough prep race?
That's all it is.....a prep race.

It's not like we're not sure if Beholder can run a little bit.

Redboard
09-05-2015, 09:45 PM
If her next race is the JCGC, and she blows out the field, she'll probably run in the Classic. Don't you think? To go from the Zenyatta to the BCC would be a heck of a class jump. I would like to see her to, at least, do the Juddmonte Spinster (G1) on 10/4 at Keenland. There is a question in some people's mind about how well she’ll ship.

horses4courses
09-05-2015, 09:55 PM
I'm not sure which race they will ultimately choose for her at Keeneland.
Mandella is as good as they come for making a decision like that.

I'm pretty sure, though, that he won't want anything to do with a
stiff battle in a prep race against tougher colts than she faced last time.

RXB
09-05-2015, 10:32 PM
I agree with you but also would note that being by UBS limits his stud value. As brilliant as he was as a sire, his offspring have been underwhelming at stud. He may have a $3-5m cap on stallion value at this point.

Unbridled's Song hasn't been notable as a sire-of-sires but not terrible, either. Will Take Charge stood for 30k in his first season and his successes on the track at 10f certainly contributed to that fee. One of the knocks is that UBS has transmitted speed but not stamina through his progeny. Win the Classic, and Liam's Map for sure would get more of a boost than he would with a Dirt Mile win-- especially given that he's out of a Trippi mare, breeders will be looking for signs of stamina.

Fager Fan
09-05-2015, 10:57 PM
Unbridled's Song hasn't been notable as a sire-of-sires but not terrible, either. Will Take Charge stood for 30k in his first season and his successes on the track at 10f certainly contributed to that fee. One of the knocks is that UBS has transmitted speed but not stamina through his progeny. Win the Classic, and Liam's Map for sure would get more of a boost than he would with a Dirt Mile win-- especially given that he's out of a Trippi mare, breeders will be looking for signs of stamina.

I don't disagree for both stud purposes and the purse they should go for the Classic. I'm thinking aloud about his stud limits. WTC proved to be one of UBS's most sound offspring and really doesn't resemble the sire. His female family is his biggest strength, and likely why he could stand for $30k. UBS has been a tough sell as a sire of sires for awhile now and it's at an all-time low now after several more failed sons at stud. WTC is his best bet right now to leave behind one too stallion son.

EMD4ME
09-06-2015, 12:40 AM
I just hope we get to see Liam's Map and American Pharoah in the gate come the BC Classic. Toss in Honor Code, and we have a seriously legit Classic.

Please, please let it happen racing Gods cuz you haven't been too kind to us thus far this year in the older division.

I'M WITH YA 10000000000000%!!!!!!

raybo
09-06-2015, 12:46 AM
Does your feeling have something to do with the owner saying as much? :p

Owner also said he'd leave it up to Todd to ultimately decide.

Yeah, he said there were two options, I think it will be the mile.

Fager Fan
09-06-2015, 01:06 AM
Yeah, he said there were two options, I think it will be the mile.

There shouldn't even be an option. Stupid, irrelevant additions to the BC.

ronsmac
09-06-2015, 09:43 AM
There shouldn't even be an option. Stupid, irrelevant additions to the BC.
Why shouldn't there be options?

Fager Fan
09-06-2015, 10:22 AM
Why shouldn't there be options?

Because half the races aren't championship caliber. They've watered down the event. when it was one day on national TV and all the winners really won something, that was how it's supposed to be, not with half forgettable.

ronsmac
09-06-2015, 02:27 PM
Because half the races aren't championship caliber. They've watered down the event. when it was one day on national TV and all the winners really won something, that was how it's supposed to be, not with half forgettable.
I hear where you're coming from, but I like it much more now from a bettor's perspective. There used to be 7 races with good stock and large fields and now there is 13.Plus I love 2 days instead of 1. To each his own.

Fager Fan
09-06-2015, 02:51 PM
I hear where you're coming from, but I like it much more now from a bettor's perspective. There used to be 7 races with good stock and large fields and now there is 13.Plus I love 2 days instead of 1. To each his own.

I can understand that. I think the mistake was to pretend that they're equal. I would've kept the 8 races on Saturday but then added the other races on Friday as an appetizer. Still big fields and purses, but maybe called something different like, I don't know, Breeders Carnival races. Being a BC winner should be a huge deal. Now there are mediocre horses who can make the claim.

Steve R
09-06-2015, 03:30 PM
Unbridled's Song hasn't been notable as a sire-of-sires but not terrible, either. Will Take Charge stood for 30k in his first season and his successes on the track at 10f certainly contributed to that fee. One of the knocks is that UBS has transmitted speed but not stamina through his progeny. Win the Classic, and Liam's Map for sure would get more of a boost than he would with a Dirt Mile win-- especially given that he's out of a Trippi mare, breeders will be looking for signs of stamina.
Interestingly, as of now there are eight sons of Unbridled's Song among the top 125 on the North American general sire list. I think only Storm Cat and A.P. Indy have more. Last year he had nine sons among the leading 150 on the juvenile sire list. Nothing world class but a lot of good, useful ones.

RXB
09-06-2015, 04:43 PM
Interestingly, as of now there are eight sons of Unbridled's Song among the top 125 on the North American general sire list. I think only Storm Cat and A.P. Indy have more. Last year he had nine sons among the leading 150 on the juvenile sire list. Nothing world class but a lot of good, useful ones.

Totally agree. First Defence, Old Fashioned, Songandaprayer, Zensational, Rockport Harbor and a few others have all done okay. He just hasn't produced the home run hitting son-- yet, anyway.

Pine Tree Lane
09-07-2015, 01:33 PM
I have a funny feeling he won't run in the BCC but rather opt for the mile.

As the regular pilot for Honor Code, Castellano would love LM in the mile. He'd have to choose if both(and Keen Ice) went in the Classic.