American Pharoah to Classic

[cj]

https://twitter.com/BreedersCup/status/638778742941327360

[Secondbest]

I hope so.

[Tom]

Prep him in the Woodward.
This Saturday.

THAT will shut everyone up if he wins it! :lol:

[horses4courses]

Prep him in the Woodward.
This Saturday.

THAT will shut everyone up if he wins it! :lol:

Nice thought, but I'm not even sure that would do it. ;)

[OTM Al]

Wish they hadn't said there would be a prep, Now we have 3 weeks more of silly speculations.

[classhandicapper]

IMO, the correct move from here is to find someone to write a special stakes prep for him. I think the idea is to find out if he's tailing off without much of a chance of a total embarrassment that could have economic costs.

If he is very impressive in that prep, you can safely go into the Classic and presume the combination of pace, being on the rail, and other factors lead to the loss in the Travers without asking too much of him before the Classic.

If he struggles to win, or even worse, loses, then you know he's tailing off and you retire him.

[Robert Fischer]

I'll get excited when he's actually getting saddled. This is one of those situations where decisions and discoveries often get made at any time.

However, I will stay positive about it. It will add greatly to one of our biggest annual races if he runs.

[Redboard]

The PA Derby is out, from what I'm hearing. Sept. 19th is just too short a break. in hindsight, they should have pushed it back a week, which would have made five weeks before the BC, instead of the six, and given Travers runners another week break.
This will be the first year in awhile that no one claims the $50k per race appearance fee, unless Keen Ice decides to show up.

[cj]

The PA Derby is out, from what I'm hearing. Sept. 19th is just too short a break. in hindsight, they should have pushed it back a week, which would have made five weeks before the BC, instead of the six, and given Travers runners another week break.
This will be the first year in awhile that no one claims the $50k per race appearance fee, unless Keen Ice decides to show up.

I would think he'd show up in the Awesome Again (formerly the Goodwood) IF there is a prep race.

[classhandicapper]

I would think he'd show up in the Awesome Again (formerly the Goodwood) IF there is a prep race.

That's the logical spot but I heard Zayat said something about SA not being AP's favorite surface and that Churchill might be willing to write a race for him.

[PoloUK6108]

Churchill seems to be in the best spot right now..bet they write a race to cap off September meet. I'll be there!

[cj]

That's the logical spot but I heard Zayat said something about SA not being AP's favorite surface and that Churchill might be willing to write a race for him.

Gotta love horsemen, he romped in the Frontrunner there last year. Sounds like the purse isn't big enough to me :)

[classhandicapper]

Gotta love horsemen, he romped in the Frontrunner there last year. Sounds like the purse isn't big enough to me :)

Negotiating tactic. :lol:

[Ruffian1]

Gotta love horsemen, he romped in the Frontrunner there last year. Sounds like the purse isn't big enough to me :)

The only thing Horseman about Zayet is that he owns one.

[ILovetheInner]

The only thing Horseman about Zayet is that he owns one.

Bingo.

[raybo]

I wouldn't run in a prep, just train and run in the BCC. The ultimate goal has always been the BCC since the TC, why take another unnecessary chance of injury by running some prep race? Makes no sense to me.

[classhandicapper]

I wouldn't run in a prep, just train and run in the BCC. The ultimate goal has always been the BCC since the TC, why take another unnecessary chance of injury by running some prep race? Makes no sense to me.

The reason would be the potential for him being a hair less than 100% coming off around an 8 week layoff and the possibility that he's simply going off form and will get embarrassed at that level. You'd want to know more first. I'm not saying those are necessarily good enough reasons, but they are considerations.

[cj]

I wouldn't run in a prep, just train and run in the BCC. The ultimate goal has always been the BCC since the TC, why take another unnecessary chance of injury by running some prep race? Makes no sense to me.

Races are the best conditioning. A win in the Classic off a two month layoff would be quite the tall order.

[dilanesp]

Races are the best conditioning. A win in the Classic off a two month layoff would be quite the tall order.

Yep. Back the in day, Woody Stephens showed us how it's really done with Conquistador Cielo.

[ronsmac]

Gotta love horsemen, he romped in the Frontrunner there last year. Sounds like the purse isn't big enough to me :)
I agree, strictly about the cash.I don't blame him though.

[thespaah]

Prep him in the Woodward.
This Saturday.

THAT will shut everyone up if he wins it! :lol:
Zayat may want to go to the JCGC...Baffert over rules the owner. Baffert will want to keep the horse in California. Next start will probably something like the Grade 1( yeah right) Awesome Again Stakes 3 yo&up, $300k 1 1/8th miles....Date is 9/26. As with the Haskell, it will be a 9 furlong workout....29 days after the Travers and 34 days before the BC Classic...

Then Baffert ships to Keeneland

[arw629]

I can't wait to bet against AP in the classic

[thespaah]

Wish they hadn't said there would be a prep, Now we have 3 weeks more of silly speculations.
I concur

[raybo]

Races are the best conditioning. A win in the Classic off a two month layoff would be quite the tall order.

Hasn't AP come off the bench before and run strong? I agree that races are the best conditioning, generally, but it varies with the horse and the trainer.

[nijinski]

Yep. Back the in day, Woody Stephens showed us how it's really done with Conquistador Cielo.

if Baffert ran Pharoah with a bad ankle he'd never hear the end of it. A humbled Stephens later admitted they worked hard on that Bum ankle CC developed . he still ran his heart out in his last race , Travers , the investors had no idea how lame he was shortly before the race . It's all documented in an SI archive , even the tap.

[iceknight]

A mild prep race would be useful..BCC is a big challenge at 10f, even without Shared Belief it will be a challenging one. Besides the Woodward winner/2nd could be a real challenge by then.

[classhandicapper]

Well, he's going to the Classic. The only question is whether he will train up to it or get a prep.

[EMD4ME]

Well, he's going to the Classic. The only question is whether he will train up to it or get a prep.

I hope he does get a prep and jogs, like he did in the Haskell. I want to see this horse 100% fit and ready for the BCC. That way, the dust settles clear after that Saturday night at Keeneland. If he wins, all the AP lovers can revel in his win (and blast me all they want). If he loses, there are no excuses.

[Vinnie]

I wouldn't run in a prep, just train and run in the BCC. The ultimate goal has always been the BCC since the TC, why take another unnecessary chance of injury by running some prep race? Makes no sense to me.

I totally echo your sentiments Raybo. He has been traveling and training virtually non-stop since the Derby. Give him a break, but, train him up to the Classic for one final run on October 31. Why does he need any prep race at this point? I don't get it.

[raybo]

AP ran arguably, his best race in the Haskell, after a 2 month break from the Belmont, which tells me he doesn't need prep races in order to run his best. And it wasn't run in slow fractions either:

23.2 - 46.1 - 1:09.6 - 1:48.0 (finishing in a coast)

Appears to me that he needed no prep before the Haskell. I can't imagine him running any better than that even with a prep, and maybe wouldn't have run as well as he did.

The argument that if he doesn't run in a prep, and loses the BCC, there will be excuses because he didn't prep for it. Well, that excuse won't come from me. If he does lose the BCC, there could very well be reasons for it, but it won't be that one, IMO.

More likely, in my mind, is that if he wins the BCC, then we'll hear all the reasons and excuses, from those who hype some other horse, when their real goal is to pull off a PA-like miracle prediction against a Triple Crown winner and the best American horse in training, 3yo or otherwise. :bang:

[raybo]

I totally echo your sentiments Raybo. He has been traveling and training virtually non-stop since the Derby. Give him a break, but, train him up to the Classic for one final run on October 31. Why does he need any prep race at this point? I don't get it.

Appears to me that he just had his prep for the BCC - LOL.

[dilanesp]

I think the sensible thing would be to prep in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He likes Belmont, and running in New York would be less of a circus than running anywhere else.

I'd like to see him in the Awesome Again (and with Beholder in the race).

But my gut feeling is, no prep.

[thaskalos]

More likely, in my mind, is that if he wins the BCC, then we'll hear all the reasons and excuses, from those who hype some other horse, when their real goal is to pull off a PA-like miracle prediction against a Triple Crown winner and the best American horse in training, 3yo or otherwise. :bang:
Isn't there some evidence indicating that he may NOT be the "best American horse in training, 3yo or otherwise"?

[raybo]

Isn't there some evidence indicating that he may NOT be the "best American horse in training, 3yo or otherwise"?

Heck Gus, there is evidence for any argument anyone cares to make, about almost anything. Doesn't mean it is true.

[thaskalos]

Heck Gus, there is evidence for any argument anyone cares to make, about almost anything. Doesn't mean it is true.
Yes...but it was YOU who made the comment that the Pharoah is the "best American horse in training, 3yo or otherwise". Is this an "opinion"...or is it an evidence-based "fact"?

[dilanesp]

The evidence is very strong that Beholder is the best American racehorse in training.

People get bowled over by the whole Triple Crown thing. To commit the ultimate heresy, it is possible that American Pharoah both won the Triple Crown and is not that great.

I certainly think that if he had run in the Pacific Classic, Beholder would have kicked his rear end.

Having said all that, I also don't think the Travers proves he isn't great either. He faced adversity in the Travers and still ran a very game, good race.

[nijinski]

The evidence is very strong that Beholder is the best American racehorse in training.

People get bowled over by the whole Triple Crown thing. To commit the ultimate heresy, it is possible that American Pharoah both won the Triple Crown and is not that great.

I certainly think that if he had run in the Pacific Classic, Beholder would have kicked his rear end.

Having said all that, I also don't think the Travers proves he isn't great either. He faced adversity in the Travers and still ran a very game, good race.
She is doing well now but she hasn't won after a cross country flight , she lost in NY and a second place finish at Churchill . I don"t think she"s lock yet out of her climate .

[raybo]

Yes...but it was YOU who made the comment that the Pharoah is the "best American horse in training, 3yo or otherwise". Is this an "opinion"...or is it an evidence-based "fact"?

Like you have stated after the fact so many times when I have questioned you about why you didn't add "IMO" to many of your statements in the past, everything I post is my own opinion based on my own experience, perspective, and observation. Proof can never be proven in horse racing, only evidence of a high quality of the body of work can be presented. Even if Beholder and AP run each other, and Beholder wins, nothing is proven by that race, regarding who is the best horse in training. Anything is possible in a horse race.

[classhandicapper]

The evidence is that if Beholder can duplicate far and away the best race of a career that has covered multiple years and a lot of races she might be able to win the Classic. It's not like that group in CA is as good as the leaders of the division in the east and it's far from certain she can run that well again.

[Fager Fan]

The evidence is that if Beholder can duplicate far and away the best race of a career that has covered multiple years and a lot of races she might be able to win the Classic. It's not like that group in CA is as good as the leaders of the division in the east and it's far from certain she can run that well again.

I've said similar, can she do it again? But I can't help but poke by pointing out that she doesn't need to to beat AP.

[ILovetheInner]

She is doing well now but she hasn't won after a cross country flight , she lost in NY and a second place finish at Churchill . I don"t think she"s lock yet out of her climate .

Fairly said, she for sure had a meltdown in KY and at least the report indicated she was injured in NY. Whether the latter was a valid excuse or not I don't know, but in the Oaks she was fractious and wasn't beaten by much by a very good filly within a very strong crop for 3yof. Were I to vote on which loss was more impressive, Beholder in the Oaks or AP in the Travers, she would certainly get my vote. Probably leaving her best at the gate, having pressed the subsequent Oaks winner to lose by less than a length to the eventual CCA and Alabama winner.

People will be arguing Beholder's out-of-CA ability right to post time, should she start, with some foundation. But that she is better than she has ever been is without argument, IMO, and fairly significant given what she has done thus far.

[mountainman]

Negotiating tactic. :lol:

You can bet Monmouth and Saratoga each took their best shot-both in public and behind the scenes- in landing AP for their respective races, and the package any track would have to pony up to be used as his BC prep boggles the mind.

I've dealt with Bob Baffert, and can assure you guys there's no way he's running anywhere or anytime that's detrimental to the horse, but team AP would be fools -should they decide to further campaign him- to not leverage the sweetest deal they can get.

[dilanesp]

The evidence is that if Beholder can duplicate far and away the best race of a career that has covered multiple years and a lot of races she might be able to win the Classic. It's not like that group in CA is as good as the leaders of the division in the east and it's far from certain she can run that well again.

I don't think the New York handicap horses are any better than the ones in California. Honor Code hasn't impressed me any more than Hard Aces did. Once Shared Belief and California Chrome got hurt, the cupboard was bare. Beholder kicked the crap out of a field that was about the same as the one that Honor Code beat, and her speed figure reflects that fact.

If they somehow get Shared Belief back to the races in one piece, he'd be a real threat against anyone, including Beholder. But if Beholder duplicates her Pacific Classic race, she would beat Honor Code and Liam's Map by several lengths unless they drastically improved.

[whodoyoulike]

So, who would be possible for the BCC to face AP?

Bayern
Honor Code
Liam's map
Hopportunity
Beholder
CC
Frosted
Keen Ice
Upstart
any European horses or;
Shared Belief -- how is he doing?

[dilanesp]

So, who would be possible for the BCC to face AP?

Bayern
Honor Code
Liam's map
Hopportunity
Beholder
CC
Frosted
Keen Ice
Upstart
any European horses or;
Shared Belief -- how is he doing?

Gleneagles is supposedly coming. Someone I know who follows Euro racing is really high on the horse.

[RXB]

If they somehow get Shared Belief back to the races in one piece, he'd be a real threat against anyone, including Beholder. But if Beholder duplicates her Pacific Classic race, she would beat Honor Code and Liam's Map by several lengths unless they drastically improved.

Beholder ran very well and she is one of the most talented female horses that I've ever seen. However, sitting comfortably behind two outclassed frontrunners beating each other up in 22 1/5, with nobody putting any pressure on her from behind at any point in the race, in what was a rather weak field except for her, doesn't bear a lot of resemblance to what figures to go down in the Classic. She's also 0/2 outside of California and Mandella himself has said that she's not the easiest shipper.

Without Shared Belief and California Chrome, there's not much left in the California handicap division.

[dilanesp]

Beholder ran very well and she is one of the most talented female horses that I've ever seen. However, sitting comfortably behind two outclassed frontrunners beating each other up in 22 1/5, with nobody putting any pressure on her from behind at any point in the race, in what was a rather weak field except for her, doesn't bear a lot of resemblance to what figures to go down in the Classic. She's also 0/2 outside of California and Mandella himself has said that she's not the easiest shipper.

Without Shared Belief and California Chrome, there's not much left in the California handicap division.

Everyone who says that Beholder is "0 for 2 outside of California" needs to re-watch her Kentucky Oaks.

I mean, I shouldn't even have to point this out-- I would think that people here would know the difference between a bad loss by a horse that can't ship and Beholder's Oaks.

[RXB]

Everyone who says that Beholder is "0 for 2 outside of California" needs to re-watch her Kentucky Oaks.

I mean, I shouldn't even have to point this out-- I would think that people here would know the difference between a bad loss by a horse that can't ship and Beholder's Oaks.

When the shipping went in the other direction there was no race, she won easily.

But you go ahead and tell Mandella that she ships great, after all what could he possibly know that you don't?

[dilanesp]

When the shipping went in the other direction there was no race, she won easily.

But you go ahead and tell Mandella that she ships great, after all what could he possibly know that you don't?

Did I ever say "she ships great"?

I am simply denying that "0 for 2 outside California" shows she doesn't ship at all.

As for Mandella, you should be very careful to credit the public excuses of trainers about their horses. Handicappers would lose a lot of money if they believed them consistently.

[RXB]

Did I ever say "she ships great"?


Well, where did I ever say that her Ky Oaks defeat was a "bad loss" or that she "can't ship"??

[Cratos]

Admittedly I am a big Honor Code fan which started with watching his 2yo debut at Saratoga.

Having said that I don’t believe that any horse at the G1 level (dirt or turf) has performed better this year at 1-1/4M than American Pharoah did in the Travers.

As I noted in another post, American Pharoah’s effort reminded me of Seattle Slew’s performance in the 1978 JCGC at 1-1/2M where he lost to Exceller by a nose in the slop after an early battle with Affirmed.

Honor Code should find Keeneland to his liking in terms of track configuration. Although Keeneland is 1/16M shorter overall than the Spa, it have a longer run to the first turn at the 1-1/4M distance and its straightaways are slightly longer than the Spa’s although the Spa have slightly larger turns.

However this is not say that horses like Keen Ice, Tonalist, and Frosted will not be a threat, but if I had to choose my top two contenders I would go with American Pharoah and Honor Code; and giving Honor Code a slight edge because of his breeding

[dilanesp]

Well, where did I ever say that her Ky Oaks defeat was a "bad loss" or that she "can't ship"??

You are putting way too much weight on "0 for 2 outside of California". She missed by a half length to an excellent filly in one of the biggest stakes races on the American racing calendar outside of California. My conclusion from that is she is generally OK to ship. Your conclusion is that she is "0 for 2 outside of California".

I think mine is generally a more rational reading of the facts.

[Kash$]

Yep. Back the in day, Woody Stephens showed us how it's really done with Conquistador Cielo.

Didnt they syndicate CC for $31 million the week he was supposed to run?(forget the race)at bSaratoga?

[ronsmac]

Didnt they syndicate CC for $31 million the week he was supposed to run?(forget the race)at bSaratoga?
I thought it was 36.4 mil. Ironically i was telling a buddy how it was a foregone conclusion that CC was supposed to win the 82 Travers and dueled on the rail with Aloma's Ruler only to see Runaway Groom swoop by both of them. Then3 days later i see pretty much the same thing in this years Travers. The main difference being Frosted not being able to beat AP.

[ILovetheInner]

It was indeed 36.4. In between the Jim Dandy and the Travers.

[nijinski]

Didnt they syndicate CC for $31 million the week he was supposed to run?(forget the race)at bSaratoga?36l and he went lame just before the Travers ,Full story is in Sports Illustrated Vault .

[nijinski]

I thought it was 36.4 mil. Ironically i was telling a buddy how it was a foregone conclusion that CC was supposed to win the 82 Travers and dueled on the rail with Aloma's Ruler only to see Runaway Groom swoop by both of them. Then3 days later i see pretty much the same thing in this years Travers. The main difference being Frosted not being able to beat AP.
no. C C mwas running only on three good ankles .

[ronsmac]

36l and he went lame just before the Travers ,Full story is in Sports Illustrated Vault .If that's true, one would have thought Woody Stephens would have known better. I was at Belmont the day he won the Dwyer, he won with absolute ease that day. I5was stunned when he lost the Travers.

[LottaKash]

but if I had to choose my top two contenders I would go with American Pharoah and Honor Code; and giving Honor Code a slight edge because of his breeding

At this juncture of the progression, these are my thoughts at the moment, as well... :cool:

[menifee]

Not a big Honor Code fan - he won't get similar pace setup and trips in the Classic.

[nijinski]

If that's true, one would have thought Woody Stephens would have known better. I was at Belmont the day he won the Dwyer, he won with absolute ease that day. I5was stunned when he lost the Travers.
The Star that fell to the earth. 12/82 Sports illustrated Vault. Everything document there. Later on Woody did reflect and felt somewhat bad or rather lucky that the horse got through the Travers . deKwiatkowski , left all matters up to his trainer. All that said ,Stephens was a damn good trainer and there were some interesting vets too! You had to get through a syndication like that somehow and he almost did in the Travers .,Today the news would have been all over the Internet.

[NY BRED]

wondering where Beholder fits in this mix.

Providing she again runs lights out, AND AP and Beholder meet ,
along with Keen Ice etc, this would be one hell of a BC Classic.