Anyone Catch the First at BEL Yesterday?

[Bubbles]

So this 9 horse, Seek Gold, is 8-1 morning-line. When wagering opens, he's suddenly the 6/5 favorite. He goes up to 21-1 at post time, and wins going away over a lackluster showing by the favorite.

Does anyone else here sense the faint scent of a rat here?

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Bubbles
So this 9 horse, Seek Gold, is 8-1 morning-line. When wagering opens, he's suddenly the 6/5 favorite. He goes up to 21-1 at post time, and wins going away over a lackluster showing by the favorite.

Does anyone else here sense the faint scent of a rat here?

stable money

[Tom]

That stable had several "conveniant" peak performances yesterday. Must have seen/known something no one else did.:confused:

[andicap]

It's an old Mark Cramer angle, especially if the horse showed more movement in his odds sometime during the betting.

It's in the C&O newsletters and maybe one of his books. I've cashed on it myself and looked at it in so called "lesser of evil" races where there's not much form or its really chaotic.

Find a horse that's heavily bet down in the first few flashes. Wait a couple of flashes to make sure it's not dumb early money but honest to goodness inside dough that is getting its bet down before saddling the horse.
The horse should drift up the rest of the betting. Optimial is if after drifting up its drop down a few points later in the betting.

In the same race, the chalk opens above his morning line and then after the post parade, suckers who think they are geting a bargain (say 5-1 on a 3-1 ML horse), will hit the horse down to 5-2 or so because they are the getting the ML favorite at great odds.

Doesn't 'mean race was fixed. Means the stables are showing what they think about their chances. It's like Insider buying and selling on Wall Street. Lots of people make money selling stocks insiders are dumping and buying stocks the execs/board members are buying. Same concept but you've really got to pick your spots.

I like it in maiden races with lots of first timers, races where a lot of horses are on the turf the first time as well. Or a field that just really sucks and seemingly no horse should win. I'm not saying it's the road to riches, but you should be aware of it -- and it's fun to track.

[JustRalph]

I have only cashed on this angle once. I have a hard time picking up on it.........watching the odds. At Sam Houston one night I watched as a 20-1 ML horse with big front end speed was stretching out. He opened at 15-1 and in a couple of flashes was 5/2. Then started back up steady. I noticed no other horses did this. So I dropped 20 bucks for the fun of it. He won going away at about 18-1 if memory serves. There must have been 25 people getting their pictures taken and high fiving each other after the race. They must have let the family in on it.

Jay Cronley and I exchanged a couple of emails about the subject at one point. He ended up writing about it not long after. He really likes to watch the board for what he calls "Insider action"
His theory is, the lesser the track or the cheaper the races, the more of this goes on.

[cj]

| didn't tune in until the second, so I won't even try to guess if I would have bet this horse. Now, without even knowing about the early money, this guy looked like a contender to me. He was third race back off a long layoff, had improved in his second race over his first, and his back numbers were better than all but the favorite. Throw in that the favorite was stretching out to an unknown distance, and its not very hard to envision this horse winning.

[JimL]

This angle is talked about in Marks book, Kinky Handicapping. I have seen it happen several times at Beu Tdn, and Mnr. It creeps up on you and is easily missed. Jim L

[azibuck]

I'd love to know the speed fig of that maiden winner in the first, 6f in 1:08.48. Yeah, it was an "easy" front running score, but he was fast start to finish.

[JPinMaryland]

Hey speaking of all this what did you think about the 9th race? Fireslam is morning line 8:1 and I saw him in Lexington stakes so I figure he's got a chance vs Forest Danger and Value Jet errh, Value Plus.

I get back to my seat and he's been bet down to 5:2 was it? I think he went off at 5:2 and I'm sort of disappointed. He finally did pay 7.60 for a $2 ticket, not bad.

Comments?

[Bubbles]

Forest Danger was clearly the stronger of the two coupled horses. When he went out, as did Indian War Dance, a lot of money went straight to Fire Slam, who was coming off an impressive win in the Matt Winn. It didn't surprise me that the horse went off at the odds he did.

[Valuist]

At Turfway and Ellis, early money is as significant as track bias. I haven't noticed it too much in NY with the bigger pools but that doesn't mean it couldn't happen. I see it in Chicago occasionally. I like this angle with layoff horses. Owners and trainers of a ready to win horse don't like to get shut out so they bet early.

[JackS]

The 2nd at Calder last weekend- ML 15-1 which was the longest on the board. Figuring my DD's , I singled this horse without lookng at the scratch sheet (DRF only). Strange because this horse figured to win. Also strange was the first flashes of the tote verified this as horse was opened at 6/5 almost immediatly after the opening bell. Strange also, was the fact that this horse received little attention during the remaining time before the race. The horse went off at 5/1 and won easily.

[JackS]

Also mentioned were the Mdn FTS'ers. I try to really stay aware of what appears to be unreasonable money in these races. At times ,money can indicate a true contender and at times a pretender. Trainers with high % wins FTS can often explain the large outlay of cash and especially if a top jock is aboard. The money in this case, is understandable. It's the low percentage trainer and maybe a moderate jockey thats taking unreasonable amounts of money that really wakes me up. The former is probably a lose-lose situation taken over a perod of time, while the latter may keep you in the win column in these types of races.

[Valuist]

I'm curious to see the odds Bravo Brad (AP's 6th) goes off at tomorrow. He's 30-1 in the program but I doubt he will be double digit odds. He ran huge in his only turf start then was forced to run in the slop when rains took the race off the grass. I think these bad morning line horses are best value in the middle or back leg of a Pic 3.

[JPinMaryland]

Oh yeah Forest Danger scratched, right?

Good comments here. I learned a lot about handicapping this week, that's for sure.