Preliminary pick for the Breedders Cup Classic(at these odds)

[Redboard]

It’s been a very passionate last 48 hours. A lot of things have been said, a lot of flames have been thrown, a lot of feelings bruised. Maybe it’s time to move on? What do you think?

How about your thoughts on the BCC? I realize it’s early, but not that early. I am salivating over it and if these seven actually show up (a longshot I know), it will be the best BCC in quite a while.

I'm sure there will be those selecting all others, please let us know who you have in mind.


3YrOlds 122 lbs
Older 126 lbs
Fillies & Mares allowed 3 lbs

It will be interesting to see who has jumped off the AP bandwagon.

So, who do you like?

Thanks for playing!

[letswastemoney]

American Pharoah ran great in the Travers. I don't see him offering any value in the Breeders' Cup Classic though.

Kentucky Derby winners go through the rest of their careers being overbet. This one won the Triple Crown.

If Beholder goes, there is no reason she can't win. She may be overbet too for being female.

Keeneland dirt is more friendly to closers, which makes Honor Code and Keen Ice more attractive. Keen Ice has improved lately, as he now shows ability to sit closer to the pace. He might be the value horse.

[Alwaysonpoint36]

Honor Code!!!

[RacingFan1992]

Here is how I see it unfolding. American Pharoah and Beholder are going to kill each other in this race with AP outlasting Beholder with Honor Code charging hard on the far outside and winning by a length over AP. I love Honor Code and think he can do it. You saw what happened when AP was pressed by Frosted. I told everyone that would happen if he was pressed by another horse.

[ILovetheInner]

If these horses all hold together, it will be truly amazing, whoever wins. Would be exhilarating to see AP go out a winner in such a race and fitting to the legend he leaves behind. But I am all about Honor Code. I think he's quirky, still learning and in the right hands.

[v j stauffer]

Sure would be great to see that race. I'd empty my bank account on AP in any race he was the third choice in. Scary to think he'll actually get weight from both Beholder and Honor Code.

[cutchemist42]

Here is how I see it unfolding. American Pharoah and Beholder are going to kill each other in this race with AP outlasting Beholder with Honor Code charging hard on the far outside and winning by a length over AP. I love Honor Code and think he can do it. You saw what happened when AP was pressed by Frosted. I told everyone that would happen if he was pressed by another horse.

To me, Liam's Map definitely figures into any rane at the front.

[horses4courses]

Hard not to like Honor Code, at this point.
When was the last time a BC Classic was run at a dawdling pace?
If he stays the horse he has been lately, he's my idea of the winner.

I wouldn't bet him at 3-1 with your money, though. :lol:

[RacingFan1992]

To me, Liam's Map definitely figures into any rane at the front.

Liam's Map would be a wonderful addition to this race. Challenging American Pharoah every step of the way with Beholder striking coming into the stretch then Honor Code gunning her down. GO HC!

[EMD4ME]

Liam's Map would be a wonderful addition to this race. Challenging American Pharoah every step of the way with Beholder striking coming into the stretch then Honor Code gunning her down. GO HC!

I would love to see a full field AND those three in the race: Liam's Map, American Pharoah and Beholder.

That would be FUN!!!

This might be the first year I play Keeneland full time in October. I want to have a 100% accurate assessment of their biases/non track biases going into BC weekend.

[Redboard]

American Pharoah ........

Keeneland dirt is more friendly to closers, which makes Honor Code and Keen Ice more attractive. Keen Ice has improved lately, as he now shows ability to sit closer to the pace. He might be the value horse.

Keen Ice could very well be a huge overlay here. I’m thinking of Birdstone after his Smarty Jones upset. Some people, including Dick Jerardi, compared Keen Ice’s win with Birdstone’s, since they both essentially benefited from a contested pace and picked up the pieces. Dirt handicappers love speed and tend to diminish closers. In Birdstone’s next race, the Travers, he went off at 5-1, the fourth choice, and won handily.

Looks like Beholder isn’t doing very well in this poll, due in part, probably because I made her the favorite. She does hold the highest Beyer of the year(see below). If she makes a move like she did in the Pacific Classic, it’s all over people! Hope she doesn’t opt for the Distaff.

I feel she’s the proverbial “horse to beat” but unless she drifts up to 5-1 or so, I’m sticking with Honor Code. He’s another closer that will need the race set up for him, and that will depend upon how speed-favoring the track is. (hey EMD4ME if you figure out how Keenland is playing, let us know, I’m still trying to figure out how the SPA is playing :bang: ) That is, as long as JJ Castellano is on top. He’ll have a decision to make, either HC or Keen Ice, it shouldn’t be very hard. Trainer loyalty won’t come into play, I don’t believe.

Tonalist needs to put blinkers back on. Without them he always goes to the back of the pack. With them, on an outside post where he can just run his race, I love him, if he drifts up and the track is playing fair.

That leaves , Frosted, a natural presser who needs a speed horse to press. If he & AP are the lone “speed” like they were in the Travers, I see a repeat with him pressing off AP again (if he’s outside of him) because he’s never won a race gate-to-wire in his career. I don’t believe he's capable of doing that. He will have Rosario aboard but he’d have to be 20-1 to get my interest.

Without Liam's Map, it’s a totally different race devoid of any speed. Hope the connections see this and run him. He has a real shot.

Noble Bird, the Stephen Foster winner, is one I left out. He flopped in the Whitney but has a win at Keenland, I don’t believe anyone else here does. He could be a player.

Of course they could all run one more race before the BC, and all lose. That’s the wacky world of T-bred horse racing, once you think you see the picture, it gets smashed into a thousand pieces. :confused:

Here’s DRf’s top beyers, races > 1 mile
Beholder DMR Aug22 114
Honor Code SAR Aug08 113
Liam's Map SAR Aug08 113
Constitution GP Feb07 111
Shared Belief SA Mar07 111
Lea GP Feb07 110
Materiality GP Mar28 110
Souper Lucky LRL Mar12 110
Tonalist SAR Aug08 110
American Pharoah MTH Aug02 109
Keen Ice SAR AUG29 106

[Spalding No!]

Interesting potential addition to the BC Classic was announced today from Ireland: top miler Gleneagles.

Gleneagles is by notable Coolmore BC Classic failure Galileo (ran in the second Tiznow win) but also out of a full sister to notable Coolmore BC Classic "success" Giant's Causeway (just missed by a head in Tiznow's first win).

[EMD4ME]

Is Bayern pointed to the BCC? :lol:

I'm kind of serious. Maybe Bob will throw him in as a rabbit for AP, so that Liam's Map can be tortured a bit and set up AP from a stalking spot?

[Redboard]

Is Bayern pointed to the BCC? :lol:

I'm kind of serious. Maybe Bob will throw him in as a rabbit for AP, so that Liam's Map can be tortured a bit and set up AP from a stalking spot?

I know your kidding, but when you think about it, it's not a bad idea. Especially if Liam's Map opts out.

Would be something if he ran him and won!

Stranger things have happened.

[RacingFan1992]

I know your kidding, but when you think about it, it's not a bad idea. Especially if Liam's Map opts out.

Would be something if he ran him and won!

Stranger things have happened.

1993 Breeders' Cup Classic

133-1 Arcangues with Jerry Bailey aboard.

[Hoops McCann]

Is Protonico definitely out? He could be a pace factor.

[davew]

I was curious where you got/made your odds line

I checked an offshore book and today they have this line ->

American Pharoah +200
Beholder +500
Honor Code +600
Gleneagles +800
Keen Ice +1000
Texas Red +1000
Liams Map +1400
Shared Belief +1400
Tonalist +1400
Frosted +1600
Firing Line +2000
Moreno +2000
Bayern +2500
Constitution +2500
Dortmund+2500
Palace Malice +2500
Hard Aces +3500
Lea +3500
Hoppertunity +4000
Wicked Strong +4000
Noble Bird +5000
Ocean Kight +7500

my experience with future bets a ways out is frequently over half listed do not start and with the exception of 1 or 2 horses, usually you get better odds on day of race.

Who is this Gleneagles?

[thespaah]

Here is how I see it unfolding. American Pharoah and Beholder are going to kill each other in this race with AP outlasting Beholder with Honor Code charging hard on the far outside and winning by a length over AP. I love Honor Code and think he can do it. You saw what happened when AP was pressed by Frosted. I told everyone that would happen if he was pressed by another horse.
Baffert is too smart. He will tell the rider to stalk the speed.

[ILovetheInner]

Who is this Gleneagles?

Extremely talented Galileo grandson of Mariah's Storm O'Brien is keen to bring to the Classic.

[davew]

Extremely talented Galileo grandson of Mariah's Storm O'Brien is keen to bring to the Classic.

I watched a couple races on youtube - looks to me Gleneagles would do better in the mile turf.

[RXB]

I watched a couple races on youtube - looks to me Gleneagles would do better in the mile turf.

With his outstanding pedigree and three Group 1 wins he's already a hot stallion prospect, but a Breeders Cup Classic win would boost his value a lot more than a Mile win.

He's out of a full sister to Giant's Causeway, and of course Giant's Causeway was one of two Aidan O'Brien trainees that came very close to winning the Classic. (Declaration Of War the other.) He's got the pedigree to handle 10f and possibly dirt, too. And O'Brien is one of the sharpest trainers in the world.

[RacingFan1992]

Baffert is too smart. He will tell the rider to stalk the speed.

Telling the rider is one thing, getting the horse to do it is another. If it's setup like the Travers then he will lose the Classic. They blamed the rider of Frosted for pushing American Pharoah the entire time. Last time I checked the main point of a horse race is to win. If AP can't hold up from being pushed that's not the horse that does the pushing's fault. What would have happened if Frosted had pushed in the Belmont would he have won? They finally found how to beat him. It wasn't that they couldn't catch AP, it was because nobody wanted to go with him and sacrifice their mount. Analyze each one of his races and look to see if anyone is running with him.

[nijinski]

Don't see Beholder beating these boys and Honor Code , don't know if he wants the distance. We'll see how AP trains and looks .A happy , healthy AP can do it.