AP's Bounce Historically Predictable

[delayjf]

In the aftermath of AP’s lose in the Travers, I think it’s worth pointing out that AP bounce in the Travers was predictable when you consider that, historically, many champions who competed in all three triple crown events (to include winning the triple crown) also regressed in the fall of their 3yr old campaign. Below is a partial list of horses that lost / bounced after competing in all three TC races.

Secretariat

Seattle Slew

Affirmed

Alysheba

Sunday Silence

Other notable Runners

War Emblem

Funny Cide

Empire Maker

Easy Goer was one exception who went on to win 4 in row, before losing to Sunday Silence in the BC Classic. I’m not sure I would classify that effort as a bounce. Some horses above won the Haskell in their first start after the TC and dropped off in their next start (War Emblem, American Pharaoh)

Prediction – No trainer (especially Bob Baffert) will attempt the Haskell / Travers double unless one / or both tracks put some time between the two races. The Haskell could move back one week and the Travers could be moved to Labor Day week end.

[RXB]

Prediction – No trainer (especially Bob Baffert) will attempt the Haskell / Travers double unless one / or both tracks put some time between the two races. The Haskell could move back one week and the Travers could be moved to Labor Day week end.

It's not the four weeks. Horses from the Jim Dandy generally do fine in the Travers and it's held the day before the Haskell.

9f at Monmouth, strong early horses often do very well. 10f at Saratoga, not as well. Baffert has had a bushel full of Haskell winners with leader/presser types: War Emblem, Coil, Paynter, Bayern, American Pharoah. His only Travers winner was Point Given who was a different type of animal, less brilliant and more sustained/stamina. And Point Given won the Travers far more convincingly than he won the Haskell.

[ultracapper]

Running well in the spring races requires early development, and that implies early peeking. Winning the summer and fall classics for 3 year olds is often reserved for the later bloomers. Even considering the KD and the Belmont. What did anybody think of Tonalist the morning of the first Saturday in May last year? A nice win in the Peter Pan, and he's on the radar screen.

[burnsy]

I don't know. I think that race was fast and hard fought. I don't know that he bounced all that much. I tend to agree with RXB and some what Ultracapper too. RXB rightly points out that they are two different kinds of races (distance wise), on two different surfaces. Its not some kind of "bounce" coincidence that all the horses he named pretty much jogged in the Haskell but lost, most of them at low odds, in the Travers. People see a really good horse and seem to think it will win everything, every time and if they lose......its some kind of bounce. That's bunk to me and trying to make losing some "bounce science." There's clearly two differing skill sets for these modern day horses to win both races. I believe that more than some "bounce" deal.

And Ultracapper makes a point with Tonalist....there's even more examples than him blooming late. They don't rush these horses anymore. There's Curlin, Summer Bird and who can forget Blame. No one knew who he was until the end of his 3 yo year....at 4 he was a bear. People won't like this opinion but their may be a 3 yo that runs better in the Classic than AP if he makes it to that race. Keen Ice looks pretty good now, he even closed in the Haskell when he lost. I don't do numbers but the people that do have that Travers pretty high up there. Its not easy to peak early then keep up because the 3 yo's are developing later IMO. Chrome ran into this last year, Bayern kind of out gunned him late in the season.

[RXB]

I tend to agree with RXB and some what Ultracapper too. RXB rightly points out that they are two different kinds of races (distance wise), on two different surfaces. Its not some kind of "bounce" coincidence that all the horses he named pretty much jogged in the Haskell but lost, most of them at low odds, in the Travers.

I've pointed this out in the past, such as prior to the 2013 Travers when Verrazano was coming off of a romp in the Haskell and I didn't care for his chances in the Travers.

Yet I'd have to say that I didn't account for it enough in my assessment this year. Pre-Haskell, I thought American Pharoah had 80-90% of the win probability for that race. Pre-Travers, down to 60-70% but in retrospect, given the addition of Frosted and Texas Red plus the surface & distance switch, 70% was almost certainly too high and 60% probably too high. I think I was a bit too bedazzled by his last workout which looked tremendous.

[castaway01]

In the aftermath of AP’s lose in the Travers, I think it’s worth pointing out that AP bounce in the Travers was predictable when you consider that, historically, many champions who competed in all three triple crown events (to include winning the triple crown) also regressed in the fall of their 3yr old campaign. Below is a partial list of horses that lost / bounced after competing in all three TC races.

Secretariat

Seattle Slew

Affirmed

Alysheba

Sunday Silence

Other notable Runners

War Emblem

Funny Cide

Empire Maker

Easy Goer was one exception who went on to win 4 in row, before losing to Sunday Silence in the BC Classic. I’m not sure I would classify that effort as a bounce. Some horses above won the Haskell in their first start after the TC and dropped off in their next start (War Emblem, American Pharaoh)

Prediction – No trainer (especially Bob Baffert) will attempt the Haskell / Travers double unless one / or both tracks put some time between the two races. The Haskell could move back one week and the Travers could be moved to Labor Day week end.

Pointing out that most horses, even great ones, eventually lose isn't exactly breaking news.

[delayjf]

It's not the four weeks. Horses from the Jim Dandy generally do fine in the Travers and it's held the day before the Haskell.

It was not just the four weeks between the two races that hurt AP, he ran well in the TC on less rest. But I believe it was a factor for AP given his performance in the TC and running in the Haskell. The totality of his efforts finally caught up to him. In AP's case, he would have benefitted from more time between the Haskell and the Travers.

If a horse skipped the TC or only ran in one or even two of the TC races, than the 4 weeks probably won't hurt that horsed chances in the Travers (i.e Street Sence). Frosted skipped the Preakness and Texas Red never competed in the TC.

[delayjf]

Pointing out that most horses, even great ones, eventually lose isn't exactly breaking news.

Perhaps not and admittedly their could be a lot of factors that lead to the horses on the list getting beat - but in this case, history keeps repeating itself. Despite the trend, I didn't hear anyone posing the possibility that AP might be vulnerable leading up to this race.

[Cratos]

In the aftermath of AP’s lose in the Travers, I think it’s worth pointing out that AP bounce in the Travers was predictable when you consider that, historically, many champions who competed in all three triple crown events (to include winning the triple crown) also regressed in the fall of their 3yr old campaign. Below is a partial list of horses that lost / bounced after competing in all three TC races.

Secretariat

Seattle Slew

Affirmed

Alysheba

Sunday Silence

Other notable Runners

War Emblem

Funny Cide

Empire Maker

Easy Goer was one exception who went on to win 4 in row, before losing to Sunday Silence in the BC Classic. I’m not sure I would classify that effort as a bounce. Some horses above won the Haskell in their first start after the TC and dropped off in their next start (War Emblem, American Pharaoh)

Prediction – No trainer (especially Bob Baffert) will attempt the Haskell / Travers double unless one / or both tracks put some time between the two races. The Haskell could move back one week and the Travers could be moved to Labor Day week end.
Give me a break!! A horse loses a race by less than a length or .11 seconds (Trakus metric) and you post some undefinable metric you call “bounce” and you attempt to put it into an historical perspective.

Question: “What if Castellano on Keen Ice would have moved his horse one-fifth second slower?” And everything happened the same; we would now be speaking of a gallant effort by American Pharoah and that is what we should be saying today.

[garyscpa]

Give me a break!! A horse loses a race by less than a length or .11 seconds (Trakus metric) and you post some undefinable metric you call “bounce” and you attempt to put it into an historical perspective.

Question: “What if Castellano on Keen Ice would have moved his horse one-fifth second slower?” And everything happened the same; we would now be speaking of a gallant effort by American Pharoah and that is what we should be saying today.

I have to say that I think this is incorrect. Keen Ice wasn't going zero fps before Castellano moved him. So the difference of one fifth of a second in the move only applies to any increase in fps after the move.

Agree about the bounce though.

[Cratos]

I have to say that I think this is incorrect. Keen Ice wasn't going zero fps before Castellano moved him. So the difference of one fifth of a second in the move only applies to any increase in fps after the move.

Agree about the bounce though.
You are correct I incorrectly used used a static example to arrive at a dynamic conclusion.

[NY BRED]

CAN'T FIND THIS ANSWER,PERHAPS SOMEONE HERE CAN PROVIDE
THE ANSWER;


HAS ANY HORSE EVER SWEPT THE TRIPLE CROWN/HASKELL /TRAVERS?

I BELIEVE THIS ANSWER IS NO.

PRESUMING THIS TO BE THE CASE,AP CAME CLOSE, SO ANY HORSE
IN THE FUTURE TRYING THE SWEEP THIS FIVE BAGGER MUST
BEAT A 2ND PLACE FINISH IN THE TRAVERS ,WHICH WILL PROBABLY
BE A DIFFICULT TASK IN YEARS TO COME..

[davew]

I scratch my head about a bounce as well

AP ran a good race, just got more pressure at a point in the race he was not used to and used up much of his reserve.

[delayjf]

Give me a break!! A horse loses a race by less than a length or .11 seconds (Trakus metric) and you post some undefinable metric you call “bounce” and you attempt to put it into an historical perspective.

Question: “What if Castellano on Keen Ice would have moved his horse one-fifth second slower?” And everything happened the same; we would now be speaking of a gallant effort by American Pharoah and that is what we should be saying today.

I'm not trying to be overly scientific here. But I don't think it's a stretch to assume that the exertion of competing (especially if each race is a taxing effort) in the TC can carry into the fall. In AP case I would define a bounce as a regression in performance compared to previous efforts in the Haskell and the triple crown. According to CJ figures, AP's performance in the Travers was below his performance in the Haskell. I have not seen the Beyer figure for the race, so I don't know how they compare. How did AP's performance in the Travers rate with your figures in his other races?

[LottaKash]

. But I don't think it's a stretch to assume that the exertion of competing (especially if each race is a taxing effort) in the TC can carry into the fall.

I agree...I am a close watcher in any particular horse's "form cycle", and I do not think of bounce, when I look at AP's run in the Travers...All I saw was a horse that was a tad short from his effort....Happens to the best of em'...

As an aside, when I saw the abrupt and intended late slowdown in the Haskell, I raised my eyebrow a bit, as I see that sort of thing as a "traindown", rather than trying to remain at or near peak/sharp a level....I think that horses being creatures of training and racing habits, it kinda of sent a message to AP that this is how we race you, as in, you don't have to try your guts out...

He is an outstanding horse all the same imo, and I still believe that he has way more in the tank than has been shown to date... A Tough Racing/Training/Travelling schedule is all the info that I gathered from that effort, and given that, AP was more than entitled to the slight letdown at the wire.....

[Cratos]

I'm not trying to be overly scientific here. But I don't think it's a stretch to assume that the exertion of competing (especially if each race is a taxing effort) in the TC can carry into the fall. In AP case I would define a bounce as a regression in performance compared to previous efforts in the Haskell and the triple crown. According to CJ figures, AP's performance in the Travers was below his performance in the Haskell. I have not seen the Beyer figure for the race, so I don't know how they compare. How did AP's performance in the Travers rate with your figures in his other races?
I don't use speed figures and this is not a knock against those who do; I just don't use them.

However I am of the mindset that the Travers might be one of AP's best efforts if not his best.

Why? Because of the moves he made. He moved from the gate and took the lead and at the top of the stretch Frosted hooked him and took the lead, but AP wasn't having it and regained the lead from the well-bred Frosted in deep stretch and with another well-bred colt in Keen Ice looming on his outside AP fought Keen Ice challenge gallantly to just miss winning by less than a length.

I haven't ran this race through our model to look at the SWARA and the NTDA effects, but I don't think my opinion will change.

[delayjf]

I was impressed with AP as well, it was a very game effort. Kind of reminded me of Rachel Alexandria's race in the Woodward. Now the question is - how much did that effort take out of him and can he recover in time for the BC - if he even runs at all, I hope so.

[whodoyoulike]

I was impressed with AP as well, it was a very game effort. Kind of reminded me of Rachel Alexandria's race in the Woodward. Now the question is - how much did that effort take out of him and can he recover in time for the BC - if he even runs at all, I hope so.


That's the question I'm wondering but the BC is 8 weeks +/- away. Also, I don't think he bounced in the Travers.

[delayjf]

Below are some quotes from Victor Espinoza regarding AP

Specifically, Espinoza said American Phaorah washed out going to the gate before the race, which is not normal.Espinoza said American Pharoah wasn’t dragging him the initial part of the race, unlike his aggressive behavior in his prior start, the Haskell. Espinoza said when the field turned into the stretch, American Phaorah “didn’t have his same kick.”

“He gave me a little, but I could see the wire was too far away,” Espinoza said.

Espinoza said when the race was over, American Pharoah did not gallop out with the same enthusiasm as prior races.

“Usually, I can’t pull him up,” Espinoza said.

I saw that he was lathering up on his neck entering the gate, but it did not look excessive to mee. However; if AP normally does not do that, then its not a good sign.

Keen Ice earned a 106 Beyer in the Travers so that would put AP's Beyer at around the 103-104 range - off his top of 109 that he earned in the Haskell. CJ's figures for AP in the Travers were also below his previous efforts and he does account for pace in his numbers. Given Espinosa's comments and the figures AP earned is why I believe he did bounce or regress a couple of lengths in the Travers. He still ran one hell of a race though.

[Fager Fan]

I think those who say he ran a hell of a race are exaggerating, and those who think he ran poorly are also. He ran fine, no embarrassment, but he proved what the times and numbers have been telling us all along.

[VeryOldMan]

I think those who say he ran a hell of a race are exaggerating, and those who think he ran poorly are also. He ran fine, no embarrassment, but he proved what the times and numbers have been telling us all along.
No argument here. I'm a bigger fan of time than many on this board, and that's where AP hasn't dazzled compared to other great horses (although I freely admit that times, track conditions, etc. may have changed). I still think AP's legacy remains to be seen; he won the Triple Crown for the first time in 37 years, which is a big deal in my book - but is there an epic fall race where he can prove himself against very worthy rivals (including older ones) and/or the clock like previous Triple Crown winners? Not AP's fault if there are no such rivals alas.

[Cratos]

No argument here. I'm a bigger fan of time than many on this board, and that's where AP hasn't dazzled compared to other great horses (although I freely admit that times, track conditions, etc. may have changed). I still think AP's legacy remains to be seen; he won the Triple Crown for the first time in 37 years, which is a big deal in my book - but is there an epic fall race where he can prove himself against very worthy rivals (including older ones) and/or the clock like previous Triple Crown winners? Not AP's fault if there are no such rivals alas.
Fast times are impressive, but consistent winning at the top level is more impressive; the 2:01.57 Travers final time was a good final time for the 1-1/4M at Saratoga.

[thaskalos]

I think those who say he ran a hell of a race are exaggerating, and those who think he ran poorly are also. He ran fine, no embarrassment, but he proved what the times and numbers have been telling us all along.

I agree with your first sentence...but I remain unsure of the validity of your second one. To me...it could just as easily be that the horse wasn't at his best this time, and that he could rebound with a vengeance in his next start...should he be afforded the opportunity. We see such things all the time. In this game, the horse's last race doesn't tell the whole story...and it's folly to place too much significance on it.

[biggestal99]

CAN'T FIND THIS ANSWER,PERHAPS SOMEONE HERE CAN PROVIDE
THE ANSWER;


HAS ANY HORSE EVER SWEPT THE TRIPLE CROWN/HASKELL /TRAVERS?

I BELIEVE THIS ANSWER IS NO.

PRESUMING THIS TO BE THE CASE,AP CAME CLOSE, SO ANY HORSE
IN THE FUTURE TRYING THE SWEEP THIS FIVE BAGGER MUST
BEAT A 2ND PLACE FINISH IN THE TRAVERS ,WHICH WILL PROBABLY
BE A DIFFICULT TASK IN YEARS TO COME..

Point givenwon the last 4 races ofhis career

Preakness, Belmont, Haskell, Travers :-)

Allan

[PaceAdvantage]

The more I think about AP's Travers, the more I think that race sets him up beautifully for the BC Classic, and whether I bet against him or not, I think he brings a monster race with him on Halloween..

[Stillriledup]

The more I think about AP's Travers, the more I think that race sets him up beautifully for the BC Classic, and whether I bet against him or not, I think he brings a monster race with him on Halloween..

It's possible, but again you'll have a situation where he won't be training at the host track and won't be ridden by a guy who is taking this seriously, a guy who will have exactly zero mounts leading up to this race over a track he doesn't know. Not sure what the Zayats fascination with Espinoza is, he's certainly not the jock I would be using.

[clocker7]

I think that facing the wind in two legs of the Travers had some effect on AP's energy consumption. The American flag was straight out. The last furlong was just a bit too taxing.

[ILovetheInner]

Point givenwon the last 4 races ofhis career

Preakness, Belmont, Haskell, Travers :-)

Allan

As well, it is pretty much splitting hairs to not mention Affirmed here.

He did not start in the Haskell, but certainly did in its counterpart, the Jim Dandy, running what many (including Laz) consider one of his most impressive ever, getting left with too much to do and running his eyeballs out against Sensitive Prince. That year, the since renamed Haskell went to an allowance runner over Dave's Friend, certainly a softer spot. Affirmed then crossed the wire first in the Travers. This for a horse who got not one easy breath in the TC due to Alydar, prior to which he started four times as a 3yo.

[Cratos]

I think that facing the wind in two legs of the Travers had some effect on AP's energy consumption. The American flag was straight out. The last furlong was just a bit too taxing.
I really don't want to start a "wind debate" which would in opinion detract away from a stellar performance by AP.

However you are referring to an "aerial" wind force with the flags; AP faced a "surface" wind force which is different and not as severe.

[clocker7]

AP ran fine, and having to fight the wind during the homestretch legs should be seen as a positive.

[taxicab]

It's possible, but again you'll have a situation where he won't be training at the host track and won't be ridden by a guy who is taking this seriously, a guy who will have exactly zero mounts leading up to this race over a track he doesn't know.Not sure what the Zayats fascination with Espinoza is, he's certainly not the jock I would be using.

How do you come up with this crap ?

So this year AP was training at Oaklawn Park?
Pimlico ?
Belmont?
Monmouth Park ?

And your won't be taking this seriously line is ignorant.
How many Champions did Victor ride last year ?
The answer would be three.....plus the HOY.
Espinoza has won 5 of the last 6 Triple Crown races......how is that not taking this seriously ?
And if you think VE won't have another mount on the BC Saturday you have lost your mind.
BTW.....Espinoza is a lock for the Eclipse Award this year(he should of got it last year).

[Fager Fan]

I think that facing the wind in two legs of the Travers had some effect on AP's energy consumption. The American flag was straight out. The last furlong was just a bit too taxing.

Were others not likewise facing the same wind?

[cj]

How do you come up with this crap ?

So this year AP was training at Oaklawn Park?
Pimlico ?
Belmont?
Monmouth Park ?

And your won't be taking this seriously line is ignorant.
How many Champions did Victor ride last year ?
The answer would be three.....plus the HOY.
Espinoza has won 5 of the last 6 Triple Crown races......how is that not taking this seriously ?
And if you think VE won't have another mount on the BC Saturday you have lost your mind.
BTW.....Espinoza is a lock for the Eclipse Award this year(he should of got it last year).

I think some guys around here need a breathalyzer on the keyboard.

[PaceAdvantage]

I think some guys around here need a breathalyzer on the keyboard.SRU simply HAS to type something...it's like on Lost...he has to post SOMETHING or else the island will blow up.