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Stillriledup
08-29-2015, 05:49 PM
Do you believe in miracles!!

YES!

Leap
08-29-2015, 05:51 PM
Thank god. Had him small.

Alwaysonpoint36
08-29-2015, 05:51 PM
oh my.

anotherCAfan
08-29-2015, 05:51 PM
What little hype our sport had, has been crushed.

edit: thank God that all horses appear to have come home safe.

Kash$
08-29-2015, 05:52 PM
Game effort...

Was Frosted entrymate with Keen Ice :confused:

dilanesp
08-29-2015, 05:52 PM
Frosted cooked AP's goose and set it up.

The legend of Saratoga continues.

dilanesp
08-29-2015, 05:53 PM
What little hype our sport had, has been crushed.

Not true. This is great.

Kash$
08-29-2015, 05:53 PM
Prediction this will be his last race

EMD4ME
08-29-2015, 05:54 PM
Sorry for the minor redboard.

THAT FELT GREAT :)

Souped up speed track. SLOW 1st and 2nd QUARTERS and LOST.


:) :) :)

garyoz
08-29-2015, 05:54 PM
One aluminum pad added to AP-- equipment change. Wonder what the story behind that is.

PaceAdvantage
08-29-2015, 05:54 PM
What miracle? I told you I was betting him...and I had him ranked equal with AP in this race... :lol:

I knew AP was in trouble when he didn't open up on these horses early...yeah, he wasn't going very fast, but he should have been at least 3-4 lengths in front down the backstretch...

EMD4ME
08-29-2015, 05:55 PM
Not true. This is great.

I AGREE :) !!!!!!!!

Hoofless_Wonder
08-29-2015, 05:55 PM
Hope they didn't start painting the canoe early with AP's colors.

Whirlaway remains the only Triple Crown champ to also win the Travers.

VeryOldMan
08-29-2015, 05:57 PM
Graveyard of Champions lived up to its reputation.

I'm not going to dance on AP's defeat. Let's see if and how he shows up in the fall and then we can assess his overall body of work.

EMD4ME
08-29-2015, 05:57 PM
What miracle? I told you I was betting him...and I had him ranked equal with AP in this race... :lol:

I knew AP was in trouble when he didn't open up on these horses early...yeah, he wasn't going very fast, but he should have been at least 3-4 lengths in front down the backstretch...


Race 6 went 24 473 (On a dull outside favoring track)

AP went 241 481 on a souped up track (after race 8).

Just saying :D :D :D

No EXCUSE AP !!!!! HA HA HA

Sorry to act like a child but I love this moment.

Spalding No!
08-29-2015, 05:58 PM
Been wearing the aluminum pad all year long, not new.

Kash$
08-29-2015, 05:58 PM
Race 6 went 24 473 (On a dull outside favoring track)

AP went 241 481 on a souped up track (after race 8).

Just saying :D :D :D

No EXCUSE AP !!!!! HA HA HA

Sorry to act like a child but I love this moment.


Dont think we see him again

PaceAdvantage
08-29-2015, 05:58 PM
Been wearing the aluminum pad all year long, not new.This be true...not sure about all year, but I remember him wearing it in a recent race...

Stillriledup
08-29-2015, 05:59 PM
Race 6 went 24 473 (On a dull outside favoring track)

AP went 241 481 on a souped up track (after race 8).

Just saying :D :D :D

No EXCUSE AP !!!!! HA HA HA

Sorry to act like a child but I love this moment.

Victor whining w excuses just can't say he lost to a better horse.

anotherCAfan
08-29-2015, 05:59 PM
Not true. This is great.
I hope you're right, but I disagree. Our sport needs superstars, and super stories, to crack the main page of ESPN, FOX, etc. When Joe Average sees that American Pharoah lost, he will pay even less attention to racing.

That said, here I go against my words by wishing American Pharoah retires. Unless it's the Breeders Cup, no more shipping cross-country.

Stillriledup
08-29-2015, 06:00 PM
I hope you're right, but I disagree. Our sport needs superstars, and super stories, to crack the main page of ESPN, FOX, etc. When Joe Average sees that American Pharoah lost, he will pay even less attention to racing.

That said, here I go against my words by wishing American Pharoah retires. Unless it's the Breeders Cup, no more shipping cross-country.

There are no superstars anymore, just like in pro sports there are no more super teams.

PaceAdvantage
08-29-2015, 06:01 PM
Victor whining w excuses just can't say he lost to a better horse.Better horse? Even I'm not silly enough to say Keen Ice is a better horse. Better today, obviously...but not a better horse.

Stillriledup
08-29-2015, 06:03 PM
Better horse? Even I'm not silly enough to say Keen Ice is a better horse. Better today, obviously...but not a better horse.

If you're gracious in defeat you say we lost to the better horse today w no excuses. It's called being a classy loser.

Tom
08-29-2015, 06:03 PM
I'm having extra onions on on my burger tonight.

FantasticDan
08-29-2015, 06:06 PM
Graveyard of Champions lived up to its reputation.Isn't it graveyard of favorites? Or is it both now? :rolleyes:

FantasticDan
08-29-2015, 06:08 PM
Better horse? Even I'm not silly enough to say Keen Ice is a better horse. Better today, obviously...but not a better horse.Exactly. Keen Ice ran the same race he's been running. He's in the dust again if Pharoah brings his usual game.

Prelim Beyer of 106 for Ice.

Wickel
08-29-2015, 06:08 PM
Victor whining w excuses just can't say he lost to a better horse.


Victor wasn't whining. He was obviously disappointed, but telling it like it happened. He was extremely gracious to take time for the post-race interview. PACE said it best, Keen Ice was the better horse today.

outofthebox
08-29-2015, 06:08 PM
Better horse? Even I'm not silly enough to say Keen Ice is a better horse. Better today, obviously...but not a better horse.Exactly. Im sure Baffert would like this last week back. 1 23 work 6 days out and a two minute lick the day before.

johnhannibalsmith
08-29-2015, 06:08 PM
If you're gracious in defeat you say we lost to the better horse today w no excuses. It's called being a classy loser.

I'm with you here. Whining about Lezcano - who actually rode to win and gave us a genuine horse race for once - was nauseating to listen to.

Rex Phinney
08-29-2015, 06:09 PM
What miracle? I told you I was betting him...and I had him ranked equal with AP in this race... :lol:

I knew AP was in trouble when he didn't open up on these horses early...yeah, he wasn't going very fast, but he should have been at least 3-4 lengths in front down the backstretch...

Congrats bud, you had it, I followed your line and took keen ice for a modest WPS and added him to my exacta box with Texas red and AP

Thought AP had it, credit to the frosted team who decided to make a real race of things.

Tom
08-29-2015, 06:09 PM
Isn't it graveyard of favorites? Or is it both now? :rolleyes:

I thought it was Graveyard of Favorites and Breakfast of Champions. :D

Redboard
08-29-2015, 06:10 PM
Race 6 went 24 473 (On a dull outside favoring track)

AP went 241 481 on a souped up track (after race 8).

Just saying :D :D :D

No EXCUSE AP !!!!! HA HA HA

Sorry to act like a child but I love this moment.

You're doing it again. You were the one who said that not even you could find a reason to bet against AP this race.

outofthebox
08-29-2015, 06:12 PM
I'm with you here. Whining about Lezcano - who actually rode to win and gave us a genuine horse race for once - was nauseating to listen to.Victor guzzled him early..Lezcano did the right thing and pounced on him.

nijinski
08-29-2015, 06:13 PM
Race 6 went 24 473 (On a dull outside favoring track)

AP went 241 481 on a souped up track (after race 8).

Just saying :D :D :D

No EXCUSE AP !!!!! HA HA HA

Sorry to act like a child but I love this moment.
You are acting like a child. let's see Keen Ice win another GR 1 . no disgrace in Pharoah"s loss , especially at Saratoga for the frequent flyer . great horses get beat . Can you tellme another great race Onion won after the Whitney !

EMD4ME
08-29-2015, 06:13 PM
You're doing it again. You were the one who said that not even you could find a reason to bet against AP this race.

Yes, which makes it more sweet when he lost.

I WAS THE ONE being riddled on here for critiquing how dressed up his wins were in the PREAKNESS and BELMONT.

I am allowed to laugh right now and if it violates etiquette, I just don't care


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

EMD4ME
08-29-2015, 06:16 PM
You are acting like a child. let's see Keen Ice win another GR 1 . no disgrace in Pharoah"s loss , especially at Saratoga for the frequent flyer . great horses get beat . Can you tellme another great race Onion won after the Whitney !

I don't care. He was treated like the second coming of GOD and Secretariat.

He lost with no excuse.

I don't want to hear any BUTS OR IFS or blah blah blah.

HE LOST and he's no superhorse.

Just another good horse.

Grits
08-29-2015, 06:17 PM
Better horse? Even I'm not silly enough to say Keen Ice is a better horse. Better today, obviously...but not a better horse.
Very good handicapping, PA. It was a fine race. They are ALL capable of loss. I hope the Zayats can cope.

Don't know when I've seen a crowd here like todays.

EMD4ME
08-29-2015, 06:18 PM
Victor guzzled him early..Lezcano did the right thing and pounced on him.

He's only been tested (kinda, once, in the Derby) and was desperate to outslow a weak contender.

I'm glad he was challenged today. Prove your a champion.

He failed.

Thank you Lezcano for having the balls to make it a race.

And before anyone says Lezcano committed suicide, no he didn't. Suicide would've been an attack from the gate or into the CT. They went a soft 48 1.

cj
08-29-2015, 06:19 PM
I don't care. He was treated like the second coming of GOD and Secretariat.

He lost with no excuse.

I don't want to hear any BUTS OR IFS or blah blah blah.

HE LOST and he's no superhorse.

Just another good horse.

Super horses lose too. He was best today, he lost. Big deal. Your act today is an old one. You're better than that.

dilanesp
08-29-2015, 06:20 PM
I'm having extra onions on on my burger tonight.

That sounds like a Jim Dandy meal.

Valuist
08-29-2015, 06:22 PM
Another example of how perfect trips lead to horses being overbet. Nobody would question that American Pharoah should've been odds on, but 1-4? Really? Frosted ran a pretty big race against him, trying to close on a slow pace in the Belmont. And Keen Ice was in good form. 17-1? Wish I could say I had it as he probably should've been about half that; no higher than 10-1.

dilanesp
08-29-2015, 06:22 PM
I don't care. He was treated like the second coming of GOD and Secretariat.

He lost with no excuse.

I don't want to hear any BUTS OR IFS or blah blah blah.

HE LOST and he's no superhorse.

Just another good horse.

I disagree. he was dead game to turn back Frosted.

The race just set up for KI. AP has nothing to be ashamed of.

TMQ
08-29-2015, 06:22 PM
If he runs in the classic, what do you think his odd's will be? Any chance at even money now?

Secondbest
08-29-2015, 06:23 PM
Zayat got What he deserved.Maybe now he'll learn to let the trainer call the shots not his ego.

EMD4ME
08-29-2015, 06:24 PM
Super horses lose too. He was best today, he lost. Big deal. Your act today is an old one. You're better than that.

I'm flying high on testosterone. I have to admit that felt good. Vindication in a way.

Yes, superhorses lose. But after getting ripped for critiquing the great AP, I feel there is some room for saying I told you so's to people.

I got it out, it felt goooood.


On that note. I will shut up. Your reprimand has been noted CJ.

Tor Ekman
08-29-2015, 06:24 PM
I'm with you here. Whining about Lezcano - who actually rode to win and gave us a genuine horse race for once - was nauseating to listen to.Rosario getting thrown off Bourbon Courage made all the difference in today's outcome

VeryOldMan
08-29-2015, 06:25 PM
Super horses lose too. He was best today, he lost. Big deal.

Yep - let's see his body of work if and when he runs in the fall.

Secretariat did just fine after losing to Onion at the Spa. Affirmed lost by DQ to Alydar at the Spa and did pretty well thereafter, including beating Spectacular Bid and losing in a game effort to Seattle Slew.

Let's see how this unfolds. I haven't been a big AP fan on the board, but I'm not writing him off after today just because he came in second.

anotherCAfan
08-29-2015, 06:26 PM
Zayat got What he deserved.Maybe now he'll learn to let the trainer call the shots not his ego.
Baffert did not look too excited today, and for good reason -- how many times does this poor, tired horse have to ship cross-country?

hougie
08-29-2015, 06:28 PM
Pharoah was vulnerable today for some reason and Frosted made him work giving Keen Ice the perfect setup. If Pharoah had been his ususal self Frosted wouldn't have been rubbing elbows with him by the far turn. Pharoah would have dropped him and everyone else by then as in other races. For a second it looked like Frosted was going to run him into the rail. At least Pharoah finally put him away. Maybe he didn't like the track that much. Who knows for sure. As far as his physicality pre-race I thought he looked as good as always. Maybe the energy wasn't quite there. I would like to see him run again before the cup. Best keep him from traveling so much maybe in the awesome again so the cali fans can have another race.

EMD4ME
08-29-2015, 06:29 PM
I disagree. he was dead game to turn back Frosted.

The race just set up for KI. AP has nothing to be ashamed of.

He won an average pace battle and was visibly not winning from the 1/2 mile pole.

If this horse is the super wonder horse that everyone speaks of, he should not have lost that race.

He's not a super wonder horse in my opinion.

You were the one saying when asked horses don't go faster.

He was tested, he was asked, just like he was in the Derby.

His Derby was not impressive to me. Said it 10000 times.

Keep in mind , I love the classic angle of horses who win pace battles and lose the war but I was not impressed by this winning of a pace battle and losing the war.

Stillriledup
08-29-2015, 06:30 PM
Baffert did not look too excited today, and for good reason -- how many times does this poor, tired horse have to ship cross-country?

If baffert shipped AP directly to the spa and trained him at stga and then gave espiniza a mandate that he was to ride at the spa to get used to the track, things might have been different.

dilanesp
08-29-2015, 06:32 PM
Pharoah was vulnerable today for some reason and Frosted made him work giving Keen Ice the perfect setup. If Pharoah had been his ususal self Frosted wouldn't have been rubbing elbows with him by the far turn. Pharoah would have dropped him and everyone else by then as in other races. For a second it looked like Frosted was going to run him into the rail. At least Pharoah finally put him away. Maybe he didn't like the track that much. Who knows for sure. As far as his physicality pre-race I thought he looked as good as always. Maybe the energy wasn't quite there. I would like to see him run again before the cup. Best keep him from traveling so much maybe in the awesome again so the cali fans can have another race.

I think that's wrong. This was the first nin-perfect trip. He still ran his race. He got beat because of the trip, not because of shipping.

Better trip he wins as usual.

biggestal99
08-29-2015, 06:33 PM
I disagree. he was dead game to turn back Frosted.

The race just set up for KI. AP has nothing to be ashamed of.

Reminds me silver charm in the callie derby, won the battle, lost the war, next out wins the derby.

This race sets up well for ap's next.

Allan

anotherCAfan
08-29-2015, 06:36 PM
If baffert shipped AP directly to the spa and trained him at stga and then gave espiniza a mandate that he was to ride at the spa to get used to the track, things might have been different.
If AP was the only horse he trained, and if he were based on the East Coast, I could see that being very feasible.

dilanesp
08-29-2015, 06:39 PM
By the way, Collmus' call was great.

Rex Phinney
08-29-2015, 06:39 PM
I'm flying high on testosterone. I have to admit that felt good. Vindication in a way.

Yes, superhorses lose. But after getting ripped for critiquing the great AP, I feel there is some room for saying I told you so's to people.

I got it out, it felt goooood.


On that note. I will shut up. Your reprimand has been noted CJ.

Did you actually bet keen ice? I have been a firm believer AP is very good but beatable but damn dude simmer down a bit. I doubt AP invincibility but he won the triple crown, get a grip here.

ultracapper
08-29-2015, 06:41 PM
I'll be damned. That was the least likely way I thought he'd ever lose. No way Frosted should have softened him up that much.

098poi
08-29-2015, 06:49 PM
Did you actually bet keen ice? I have been a firm believer AP is very good but beatable but damn dude simmer down a bit. I doubt AP invincibility but he won the triple crown, get a grip here.

I agree with you someone needs to calm down. This is still quite an impressive resume.

Kash$
08-29-2015, 06:49 PM
Sorry for the minor redboard.

THAT FELT GREAT :)

Souped up speed track. SLOW 1st and 2nd QUARTERS and LOST.


:) :) :)


Felt good why wouldnt you ? You cashed the pick 4 using 1/7/10 i shouldve listen this morning..

Enjoy it big mouth :)

Kash$
08-29-2015, 06:51 PM
Did you actually bet keen ice? I have been a firm believer AP is very good but beatable but damn dude simmer down a bit. I doubt AP invincibility but he won the triple crown, get a grip here.

Unfortunatly he did using Keen Ice to close out the pick 4

MJC922
08-29-2015, 06:51 PM
Good call by PA. This is just a one factor race on post-mortem, one factor meaning Frosted's brush move on the turn. Saw it in the FOY, saw it in the Wood, granted it never materialized in the Belmont because he was locked inside on the backstretch and had to slowly ration it snaking up the fence.... if he's on the outside of you in 48 you will feel the pain.

It's all trips and pace, Keen Ice at least enough horse to pick him up. I like AP, best horse before the race and still the best horse after IMO but I don't like horses getting through an entire career without facing an ounce of adversity either. So we tame this hype machine a bit and do some thinking about what Honor Code and Tonalist can do in the Classic after AP chases Liam's Map around. BC a long time off still but if it shapes up that way retirement might be the smart thing to do, tough decision, what would you do?

Spalding No!
08-29-2015, 07:04 PM
So we tame this hype machine a bit and do some thinking about what Honor Code and Tonalist can do in the Classic after AP chases Liam's Map around. BC a long time off still but if it shapes up that way retirement might be the smart thing to do, tough decision, what would you do?
Give him a break and come back at 4 in mostly 9f races, then have requisite "foot" problem that necessitates foregoing the BC Classic at 10f.

San Antonio
Oaklawn
Met Mile
Stephen Foster
Whitney
Woodward
Awesome Again

Tommy Tom
08-29-2015, 07:07 PM
Keen Ice was my key horse and I wheeled him 2nd in the Tri for a buck...I felt if he wins the best chance for a big pay day was to use him in the pk 3 with ALL-ALL-7 for a buck....hoping for a bomb of course but no such luck...

I figured if instead I wheeled him on top in the Tri for a buck and if AP got 2nd the tri would not be huge like a possible Pk 3 would be

I wanted to key on the top 2 jockeys at Saratoga...Irad or Javier and when I saw Javier was aboard Keen Ice that made my mind up as I liked Keen Ice in his previous races and here we were at Saratoga, distance and what better jockey than Javier on Keen Ice the closer.

But to bad for me having ALL-ALL in the first 2 legs of the Pk 3 had favorites win and not one bomb or even a long shot :(

EDIT I am having all kinds of trouble getting into my NY Rewards account but I just now did get in and see just over $200.00 in my account so that must be what the pick 3 paid for a buck

AndyC
08-29-2015, 07:07 PM
I think that's wrong. This was the first nin-perfect trip. He still ran his race. He got beat because of the trip, not because of shipping.

Better trip he wins as usual.

What was wrong with the trip? He broke on top and ran slow fractions for the first half. The jockey could have taken the inside or outside path and could have chosen to run off the lead. If having one horse near him on the lead is a bad trip then he isn't nearly the talented, versatile horse we all thought he was.

dilanesp
08-29-2015, 07:08 PM
Good call by PA. This is just a one factor race on post-mortem, one factor meaning Frosted's brush move on the turn. Saw it in the FOY, saw it in the Wood, granted it never materialized in the Belmont because he was locked inside on the backstretch and had to slowly ration it snaking up the fence.... if he's on the outside of you in 48 you will feel the pain.

It's all trips and pace, Keen Ice at least enough horse to pick him up. I like AP, best horse before the race and still the best horse after IMO but I don't like horses getting through an entire career without facing an ounce of adversity either. So we tame this hype machine a bit and do some thinking about what Honor Code and Tonalist can do in the Classic after AP chases Liam's Map around. BC a long time off still but if it shapes up that way retirement might be the smart thing to do, tough decision, what would you do?

Beholder is far better than the mediocre New York older horses. She's the likely Classic winner if she starts and fires.

Kash$
08-29-2015, 07:14 PM
Beholder is far better than the mediocre New York older horses. She's the likely Classic winner if she starts and fires.

Beholder hasnt won outside of California..Likeliest Classic winner?

classhandicapper
08-29-2015, 07:16 PM
I'm not going to get a chance to review the day and watch the replays until tomorrow, but I feel comfortable saying that was not the same horse we've seen all year. It's not so much that he lost. It's that IMO he's clearly a more brilliant horse than Frosted but he couldn't get away from him on the turn. He ultimately dug in and put him away, but he didn't have his usual turn of foot while it was still early in the race. Either all the shipping and the tough campaign finally got to him or right on the rail path was a little deeper.

Early in the card I thought the track might be playing better to the outside. I even adjusted my thinking mid card. But then a few horses did some running inside for at least parts of their races. So I was less sure. Given AP was running in their while pressured and came up short, it has to at least be considered pending a review of the head on replays etc....

I thought going to the Travers was a huge strategic mistake and said so on another forum. It was too much to ask. Even if he had he passed this test, he's not a bottomless pit. It was going to be really tough getting him to the Classic ready to fire his A race taking this path. Now we may have seen the last of him.

biggestal99
08-29-2015, 07:20 PM
Game effort...

Was Frosted entrymate with Keen Ice :confused:

Funny you should ask. No love lost between the arabs and the irish.

Frosted basically ran lapped onto ap the whole way

Allan

Kash$
08-29-2015, 07:22 PM
Funny you should ask. No love lost between the arabs and the irish.

Frosted basically ran lapped onto ap the whole way

Allan

Allan Rosario was taken off his mounts..Lezcano replaced Rosario on Frosted yikes!!

dilanesp
08-29-2015, 07:26 PM
Beholder hasnt won outside of California..Likeliest Classic winner?

Second beaten a half length in one of the biggest races in Kentucky, where the BC will be held.

wonatthewire1
08-29-2015, 07:29 PM
I don't care. He was treated like the second coming of GOD and Secretariat.

He lost with no excuse.

I don't want to hear any BUTS OR IFS or blah blah blah.

HE LOST and he's no superhorse.

Just another good horse.


Yawn.... :sleeping:

Redboard
08-29-2015, 07:30 PM
Keen Ice was my key horse and I wheeled him 2nd in the Tri for a buck...I felt if he wins the best chance for a big pay day was to use him in the pk 3 with ALL-ALL-7 for a buck....hoping for a bomb of course but no such luck...

I figured if instead I wheeled him on top in the Tri for a buck and if AP got 2nd the tri would not be huge like a possible Pk 3 would be

I wanted to key on the top 2 jockeys at Saratoga...Irad or Javier and when I saw Javier was aboard Keen Ice that made my mind up as I liked Keen Ice in his previous races and here we were at Saratoga, distance and what better jockey than Javier on Keen Ice the closer.

But to bad for me having ALL-ALL in the first 2 legs of the Pk 3 had favorites win and not one bomb or even a long shot :(

EDIT I am having all kinds of trouble getting into my NY Rewards account but I just now did get in and see just over $200.00 in my account so that must be what the pick 3 paid for a buck

Singling a 16-1 in a pick 3, or any horizontal bet, doesn't make sense. You got 3-1 for your money, when you could have gotten 16-1.

five-eighths
08-29-2015, 07:32 PM
Congrats to Keen Ice.

Was most surprised that Frosted got all into Pharoah's grill, thought that Upstart would be the one to challenge AP and then maybe hang on to place or show.

onefast99
08-29-2015, 07:39 PM
I'm not going to get a chance to review the day and watch the replays until tomorrow, but I feel comfortable saying that was not the same horse we've seen all year. It's not so much that he lost. It's that IMO he's clearly a more brilliant horse than Frosted but he couldn't get away from him on the turn. He ultimately dug in and put him away, but he didn't have his usual turn of foot while it was still early in the race. Either all the shipping and the tough campaign finally got to him or right on the rail path was a little deeper.

Early in the card I thought the track might be playing better to the outside. I even adjusted my thinking mid card. But then a few horses did some running inside for at least parts of their races. So I was less sure. Given AP was running in their while pressured and came up short, it has to at least be considered pending a review of the head on replays etc....

I thought going to the Travers was a huge strategic mistake and said so on another forum. It was too much to ask. Even if he had he passed this test, he's not a bottomless pit. It was going to be really tough getting him to the Classic ready to fire his A race taking this path. Now we may have seen the last of him.You can't blame the connections they wanted to parade him around the Northeast where they live. After the race the jock said AP felt different especially on the way to the gate and at the 5/8ths marker. I don't know if the 9000 mile trips in the past 21 days got him or if Frosted just took the starch out of him. On a different note did one of the TVG guys say we now have a new contender for the 3 y/o of the year? Please tell me I didn't hear that:bang: .

MJC922
08-29-2015, 07:48 PM
I'm not going to get a chance to review the day and watch the replays until tomorrow, but I feel comfortable saying that was not the same horse we've seen all year. It's not so much that he lost. It's that IMO he's clearly a more brilliant horse than Frosted but he couldn't get away from him on the turn. He ultimately dug in and put him away, but he didn't have his usual turn of foot while it was still early in the race. Either all the shipping and the tough campaign finally got to him or right on the rail path was a little deeper.

Early in the card I thought the track might be playing better to the outside. I even adjusted my thinking mid card. But then a few horses did some running inside for at least parts of their races. So I was less sure. Given AP was running in their while pressured and came up short, it has to at least be considered pending a review of the head on replays etc....

I thought going to the Travers was a huge strategic mistake and said so on another forum. It was too much to ask. Even if he had he passed this test, he's not a bottomless pit. It was going to be really tough getting him to the Classic ready to fire his A race taking this path. Now we may have seen the last of him.

I don't know how he would get away from him on the turn, no 3yo ever pulled away from Frosted on the turn when he's stalking outside like that, he looped some of the better ones in the derby preps and gave them the staggers, that's his calling card right there, you're looking down the barrel of a loaded gun when he's on your outside in 48. Predictably he flattens after that but he owns the turn. To his credit AP was able to quicken up and not let him pull ahead by more. AP won points from me right there. Now this was a very solid tested effort, IMO, probably not his very best but I thought AP ran an solid race. Three horses you don't want to mess with on the turn, Calculator (injured, could've been any kind), Frosted (goes without saying), Liam's Map (after being 5 wide if you recall, Valid can vouch) -- honorable mention to American Pharoah.

dilanesp
08-29-2015, 07:54 PM
You can't blame the connections they wanted to parade him around the Northeast where they live. After the race the jock said AP felt different especially on the way to the gate and at the 5/8ths marker. I don't know if the 9000 mile trips in the past 21 days got him or if Frosted just took the starch out of him. On a different note did one of the TVG guys say we now have a new contender for the 3 y/o of the year? Please tell me I didn't hear that:bang: .

Yeah, no way. AP handed this horse his behind a couple of times already.

I'm normally of the mind of "the TC winner shouldn't be automatic horse of the year". But this would be like voting for JO Tobin for 3 year old of the year in 1977.

MJC922
08-29-2015, 08:02 PM
You can't blame the connections they wanted to parade him around the Northeast where they live. After the race the jock said AP felt different especially on the way to the gate and at the 5/8ths marker. I don't know if the 9000 mile trips in the past 21 days got him or if Frosted just took the starch out of him. On a different note did one of the TVG guys say we now have a new contender for the 3 y/o of the year? Please tell me I didn't hear that:bang: .

Incredible if you heard that... outlandish.

porchy44
08-29-2015, 08:08 PM
I was told Baffert is 2 for 40 in graded stakes at Saratoga. ( I have not verified this yet)

The only reason American Pharoah can lose is just what happened today. If he is headed every step of the way or a horse like Frosted is at his throat latch the entire 1 1/4.

highnote
08-29-2015, 08:22 PM
TV analysts said Castellano has won 4 of the past 5 Travers.

They also noted that Espinoza's only mount on the day was in the Travers and Bailey thought it was a mistake. He should have other mounts in order to get his timing down.

Bailey would know. I saw him work on his timing for two days at Churchill prepping for the BC Classic aboard Concern.

Espinoza says he has been practicing for 6 hours per day for "Dancing With The Stars". Perhaps he should have had his mind on riding today, instead?

Also, AP has a 4.33 dosage -- that's high for a classic distance. Keen Ice has a 2.73 dosage -- well, within the classic range.

dilanesp
08-29-2015, 08:25 PM
I was told Baffert is 2 for 40 in graded stakes at Saratoga. ( I have not verified this yet)

No. He has about a 20 percent winrate.

porchy44
08-29-2015, 08:33 PM
https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/why-baffert-didnt-need-too-much-convincing-run-pharoah-graveyard-favorites

Quote from the article above:

"Baffert has a decent record at Saratoga since 1999, according to Equibase. He has won with 21 of 97 starts (21.6 percent). His graded stakes record there, however, is only eight of 59 (13 percent)."

Redboard
08-29-2015, 08:40 PM
Unfortunatly he did using Keen Ice to close out the pick 4


How do you know? Not another one of his questionable ADW spreadsheets he likes to post here.

Tommy Tom
08-29-2015, 09:02 PM
Singling a 16-1 in a pick 3, or any horizontal bet, doesn't make sense. You got 3-1 for your money, when you could have gotten 16-1.

The way I was thinking is if I beat AP with my one selection of Keen Ice I wanted a huge payoff...a monster ticket.....I felt in Race 9 Private Zone could be beat and I loved the high odds on some of the other horses as well..

Then in the 10th I knew Flintshire would get hammered and I felt a couple of the bombs could possible win...Guardini and Messi to name just 2 and at high odds.....

So if I could have caught a break and had at least one bomb hit say in the 10th to knock out Flintshire and than have Keen Ice beat AP in the Travers I felt for my $72 invested could have possibly returned a $ 5k + or much more Pick 3 due to the large amount of money in the Pk 3 pool with most on AP and that is what I was hoping and hunting for .

If I didn't feel so rushed structuring my wagers as the NY Rewards site suddenly started slowing quickly I might have taken more advantage of my only selection of Keen Ice but I would not have changed the Pk 3 ticket I played.....I just could not catch a bomb in either one of the first 2 legs but I still won money on the wager...but that same exact wager could have won many many thousands too.

So that was my thinking.

alhattab
08-29-2015, 09:36 PM
I'm not going to get a chance to review the day and watch the replays until tomorrow, but I feel comfortable saying that was not the same horse we've seen all year. It's not so much that he lost. It's that IMO he's clearly a more brilliant horse than Frosted but he couldn't get away from him on the turn. He ultimately dug in and put him away, but he didn't have his usual turn of foot while it was still early in the race. Either all the shipping and the tough campaign finally got to him or right on the rail path was a little deeper.

Early in the card I thought the track might be playing better to the outside. I even adjusted my thinking mid card. But then a few horses did some running inside for at least parts of their races. So I was less sure. Given AP was running in their while pressured and came up short, it has to at least be considered pending a review of the head on replays etc....

I thousght going to the Travers was a huge strategic mistake and said so on another forum. It was too much to ask. Even if he had he passed this test, he's not a bottomless pit. It was going to be really tough getting him to the Classic ready to fire his A race taking this path. Now we may have seen the last of him.

Class I watched the first few races then went out. From the first few dirt races I thought there was a clear outside advantage. Then I heard on the radio both Unbridled Forever win the Ballerina off a :46 half and Runnin Happy win the King's Bishop starting from the far outside and figured outside paths continued to be best. Watched the Travers on TV and couldn't believe Espinoza got the lead and didn't float Frosted wide into the CH turn. He should have been in the 3/4 path I thought. I didn't get it and may speak to Espinoza not knowing the track and not riding earlier on the card. Saw some other commenters suggesting track changed later in the card but there wasn't much to go on w Private Zone winning for fun. Thought Espinoza was clueless and thought the track was definitely favoring outside paths.

tzipi
08-29-2015, 09:56 PM
Exactly. Keen Ice ran the same race he's been running. He's in the dust again if Pharoah brings his usual game.

Prelim Beyer of 106 for Ice.

He brought his usual game, but this time he was not allowed an easy lead by himself the whole race. He was tested this time.

cj
08-29-2015, 10:00 PM
He brought his usual game, but this time he was not allowed an easy lead by himself the whole race. He was tested this time.

Three of his last five wins he didn't even lead until after at least 3/4 mile had been run, let alone be by himself.

tzipi
08-29-2015, 10:08 PM
Three of his last five wins he didn't even lead until after at least 3/4 mile had been run, let alone be by himself.

The Preakness and Belmont were easy galloping leads with no one pressing. The Haskell was a walkover sitting off of Optional Claimer, Top Clearance. I'm happy with my bet today. :)

rrpic6
08-29-2015, 10:09 PM
My redboard of the year! I bet against this guy every race!!


08/29 7:49 AM Saratoga Thoroughbred 8 $0.50 P4 (PWHL) 3, 4, 7, 11 / 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 12 / 2 / 2, 4, 6, 7 $64.00 $2,375.00

08/29 8:09 AM Saratoga Thoroughbred 10 $0.50 P4 (PWHL) 2 / 2, 4, 6, 7 / 1, 2, 4, 7, 8 / 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 12, 13 $80.00 $1,559.25

Steve R
08-29-2015, 10:27 PM
I think that's wrong. This was the first nin-perfect trip. He still ran his race. He got beat because of the trip, not because of shipping.

Better trip he wins as usual.
A :26.3 finish off a :48.1 half mile while saving ground the whole way is a "losing" trip? You'll have to explain that to me.

Stillriledup
08-29-2015, 10:30 PM
The surface of this track was more demanding, so, why wasnt the horse stabled there for the past few weeks getting used to it? Also, they could have saved shipping the horse via aeroplane. I wont even mention the jockey and his lack of spa riding experience as well as not having one mount on the undercard.

dilanesp
08-29-2015, 10:31 PM
A :26.3 finish off a :48.1 half mile while saving ground the whole way is a "losing" trip? You'll have to explain that to me.

Too many numbers. Watch his interaction with Frosted, and watch how it tires him.

Grits
08-29-2015, 11:09 PM
The surface of this track was more demanding, so, why wasnt the horse stabled there for the past few weeks getting used to it? Also, they could have saved shipping the horse via aeroplane. I wont even mention the jockey and his lack of spa riding experience as well as not having one mount on the undercard.

This well may have made quite a difference. Pharaoh has racked up more frequent flyer miles than any horse in North America. His not being here to train, and too, his jockey in to ride only him in the Travers, no other races today? I think both of these moves were detrimental. Though taking nothing away from Pharoah who ran the whole way today in defeat.

Keen Ice has been, here, in Saratoga. Dale Romans knew his horse was improving, working well over this track. Subsequently, he put the best jockey in the country on his back. Javier was a smart move.

It was a fine horse race, an exciting one.

EMD4ME
08-29-2015, 11:33 PM
How do you know? Not another one of his questionable ADW spreadsheets he likes to post here.

Spoke in the morning. That's how. And yes, I can't believe I got $9,500 for a slight spread with a 3/5 in my eyes with a 1/5 in my eyes and Keen Ice.

I didn't come on here and say I hit it, Kash was just congratulating me.

Not a huge hit, just a decent one.

I don't like to post my ADW stats, I was questioned and showed them to prove that what I say is true.

Rex Phinney
08-29-2015, 11:44 PM
Baffert doesn't play the same at Saratoga because his horses win with speed. It's no secret, Baffert's first choice is to get on the lead and try to carry the speed to the finish line, it's the way all his horses run. This is why he makes a killing at Santa Anita, this is why he does so well in the Haskell vs the Travers, shorter race and much more speedball friendly track.

AP didin;t lose today because anything went wrong, he lost today because not every track is going to allow you to get to the lead and carry it.

I cannot overstate the role of Frosted here, I love seeing them send the horse and push, I get so tired of seeing this pattycake pace, sit behind the leader BS. When you run against a horse like AP you simply cannot sit and wait behind him, this is the way racing should be. You want to win big races like the Travers, you better be ready to work for the lead and/ or fight off multiple comers.

I did not think the first 1/2 was very fast at all, Frosted really hung in there vs. AP though, the 3rd quarter was the one that got AP beat.

EMD4ME
08-29-2015, 11:47 PM
Too many numbers. Watch his interaction with Frosted, and watch how it tires him.

Of course it tired him. Why? Because he's NOT the superhorse that people claim he is.

That track was so souped up RIGHT BEFORE race 8. The inside and speed all of a sudden became the place to be.

He jogged for a half mile. Any very good horse puts away Frosted and holds off Keen Ice easily.

He is NOT a superhorse. He's been tested twice (and I use the word tested mildly as I dont think he's been reaaaaaaally tested in his trips). Once in the Derby (extremely mild test) and today (not that amazing of a test).

He was visibly done in the third quarter, not winning.

Cigar in the Pacific Classic was a horse who got burned by pace.

AP was not burned by pace or dynamics here.

He was put to the test and failed.

People need to seriously stop thinking with their heart.

There is no way on paper, on the track or if we lived in an upside down world that this horse should have lost today. Lone speed, souped up track, weak 3 year olds, jog for a half mile etc. and he lost.

That's what made it sweeter.

Kudos to Keen Ice because if he didn't suck up, all we would be hearing is how gutsy and admirable AP is.

Paleeeze. He's not gutsy. Medaglia D"oro was gutsy in defeat in the Classic. Seattle Slew ran the best race of his life being gutsy.

I didn't see gutsy out there today.

I saw a horse who was floundering home in almost 27 seconds. (and yes, I get the fact that he ran a fast 3rd n 4th quarters but he had a joke of a first half and any CHAMPION would've had enough in the tank to rattle off a fast second half mile AND A 25 second closing quarter to win by 7) He is off the board if there were 3 decent thoroughbreds out there with him to gobble him up in the lane.

Not being a jerk, speaking logical facts.

This is the sweetest loss since Zenyatta was exposed by Blame.

Rex Phinney
08-29-2015, 11:51 PM
Wow dude way to class it up. Even a Zenyatta blast for good measure, get a grip.

It is one day, one race.

iceknight
08-29-2015, 11:55 PM
Not being a jerk, speaking logical facts.

This is the sweetest loss since Zenyatta was exposed by Blame. a broken clock is right twice a day. Congrats on getting one of ur guesses right today. And Zenyatta wasn't "exposed" for anyone who knows a little about racing, not just the ribbon waving fans. She lost by a neck to a multiple G1 winning horse

EMD4ME
08-30-2015, 12:01 AM
a broken clock is right twice a day. Congrats on getting one of ur guesses right today. And Zenyatta wasn't "exposed" for anyone who knows a little about racing, not just the ribbon waving fans. She lost by a neck to a multiple G1 winning horse

HA HA HA. Broken clock. Guess the correct time stops on my broken arms 1440 times a day......

Zenyatta....She didn't win with an ultra perfect trip in the BCC. People spoke of her as the best. If you're the best, YOU WIN. Not come close to a G1 winner blah blah blah.

EMD4ME
08-30-2015, 12:06 AM
Wow dude way to class it up. Even a Zenyatta blast for good measure, get a grip.

It is one day, one race.

It's a perfect analogy. I don't understand why comparing this loss to Zenyatta's loss is an issue?

She was overhyped, overprotected and of course they limited her exposure AND LEGACY to an all or nothing 1 race (I don't count her SA BC win on that used rubber, candles and other foreign substances) in the CD BCC.

She came up short when it mattered.

In my opinion, AP was overhyped, over exaggerated and treated like a superhorse of yesteryear.

All I asked for was for him to actually be tested just a little bit so we can see if he has the talent/guts of a Champion.

I didn't think it would happen in the Travers as he was staying within his 3 year old weak foes, track got souped up right before race 8, rail became fine, was lone speed etc.

I thought it would happen in the BCC.

And that's what makes it all the more sweeter.

I bet against him anyway and believe it or not, it's NOT about $$$$. It's about people giving way too much credit to the current "wonderhorse". He's not Secretariat. He's not Seattle Slew. He's not Holy Bull. He's not Cigar.

In a way, I find it insulting the super horses of yesteryear are compared to AP. Let him prove it first.

Am I not allowed to rejoice in his loss when he gets put to the test and fails?

And yes, it was a perfect analogy (Blame crushing Zenyatta's heart in the lane and IN THE GALLOP OUT).

cj
08-30-2015, 12:09 AM
HA HA HA. Broken clock. Guess the correct time stops on my broken arms 1440 times a day......

Zenyatta....She didn't win with an ultra perfect trip in the BCC. People spoke of her as the best. If you're the best, YOU WIN. Not come close to a G1 winner blah blah blah.

She was a 6yo mare, they waited too long to really challenge her on dirt. Blame was hardly a world beater, but he was good enough to beat her at that point. But nobody would say he was a better horse than Zenyatta overall.

Laminarman
08-30-2015, 12:12 AM
He won an average pace battle and was visibly not winning from the 1/2 mile pole.

If this horse is the super wonder horse that everyone speaks of, he should not have lost that race.

He's not a super wonder horse in my opinion.

You were the one saying when asked horses don't go faster.

He was tested, he was asked, just like he was in the Derby.

His Derby was not impressive to me. Said it 10000 times.

Keep in mind , I love the classic angle of horses who win pace battles and lose the war but I was not impressed by this winning of a pace battle and losing the war.

Gotta look at this and wonder if you ever played a competitive sport in your life. I would have loved to see AP win, but am fine with the outcome. All athletes have good and bad days. I've seen every athlete in every sport stink up the joint on occasion. Saying AP should win all the time is ridiculous. I think pouncing on this win like you are vindicated is, well,..below you. . And that's from me, who knows shit about horse racing. Just sayin'....

EMD4ME
08-30-2015, 12:15 AM
She was a 6yo mare, they waited too long to really challenge her on dirt. Blame was hardly a world beater, but he was good enough to beat her at that point. But nobody would say he was a better horse than Zenyatta overall.

Yes, I wish they ran her on the dirt earlier. For a filly, 6 was late. I too, wanted to see if she could match up with the big boys on dirt in big races.

Overall body of work, I'll say Zenyatta as well. Blame peaked late as well so I can't argue that.

Sorry, the testosterone was flying earlier, I apologize.

Was being told AP can't lose by dozens of people today at the BIG A. As you know, received major flack on here as well for critiquing his Derby, Preakness and Belmont.

EMD4ME
08-30-2015, 12:18 AM
Gotta look at this and wonder if you ever played a competitive sport in your life. I would have loved to see AP win, but am fine with the outcome. All athletes have good and bad days. I've seen every athlete in every sport stink up the joint on occasion. Saying AP should win all the time is ridiculous. I think pouncing on this win like you are vindicated is, well,..below you. . And that's from me, who knows shit about horse racing. Just sayin'....

I think this conversation starts and ends with your last sentence. Not being a jerk but if you don't know much about horse racing, how can you possibly understand how I feel?

I bet this game with blood sweat and tears. With real money, not play money. Forgive me for being told you're wrong 54,000,000 times and when the horse that SHOULD NEVER lose under any circumstances LOSES, if I had a childish moment and said I told you so.

Yes, I played baseball and basketball feverishly. This is not the same. I'm not here to give credit for little johnny for trying. Johnny was supposed to win.

To use an analogy, the Yankees of the 2000's should have won 6 championships. They were buying players left and right. They were GOLIATH vs. little David's.

I laughed and cherished all their losses in 9 out of 10 years.

AP is a nice horse. He's cute, he's loveable. I am an animal lover myself. But, until he proves he's a Champion in the true meaning of the word, I will not recognize a horse as a Champion.

Forgive me for cherishing his loss. If I though he was a Champion, I would be crying for his loss. I don't think he is one.

classhandicapper
08-30-2015, 12:21 AM
Class I watched the first few races then went out. From the first few dirt races I thought there was a clear outside advantage. Then I heard on the radio both Unbridled Forever win the Ballerina off a :46 half and Runnin Happy win the King's Bishop starting from the far outside and figured outside paths continued to be best. Watched the Travers on TV and couldn't believe Espinoza got the lead and didn't float Frosted wide into the CH turn. He should have been in the 3/4 path I thought. I didn't get it and may speak to Espinoza not knowing the track and not riding earlier on the card. Saw some other commenters suggesting track changed later in the card but there wasn't much to go on w Private Zone winning for fun. Thought Espinoza was clueless and thought the track was definitely favoring outside paths.

I was watching every replay and head on while at the track. After they ran the first few races on dirt I ran into one one of the DRF writers. I told him that if AP was my horse I'd tell Espinzoa to go to the lead and immediately take him out to the 3 path. At that stage 3-4 horses that ran inside had run below my expectations. The evidence got more mixed after the 7F races. My feeling going into the Travers was that it probably wasn't death in there, but you still want to be in the best path and that probably wasn't the rail. So why be in there?

I'll do my analysis tomorrow when I'm fresh and have all my figures, but either way, I don't think that was the same horse we saw in the Haskell. I agree on your other point. If you are a jockey, you should be riding in other races on the card to see how the track is playing.

MutuelClerk
08-30-2015, 12:24 AM
Kent Desormeaux

Oops.

EMD4ME
08-30-2015, 12:26 AM
I was watching every replay and head on while at the track. After they ran the first few races on dirt I ran into one one of the DRF writers. I told him that if AP was my horse I'd tell Espinzoa to go to the lead and immediately take him out to the 3 path. At that stage 3-4 horses that ran inside had run below my expectations. The evidence got more mixed after the 7F races. My feeling going into the Travers was that it probably wasn't death in there, but you still want to be in the best path. So why be in there?

I'll do my analysis tomorrow when I'm fresh and have all my figures, but either way, I don't think that was the same horse we saw in the Haskell.

OMG....I was screaming dead rail from races 1-7. I'm with you on that.

Once race 8 was run, holy crap, what a CHANGE.

The track got SO much quicker. The rail got so much better. Race 8 saw a boat race of 3 horses running around on a carousel. The 11 was 7 wide on the backstretch but drew clear on the RAIL in the lane. The 4, who finished fourth, rallied inside in the lane into a 23.57 final Q. We didn't see that earlier in the day.

Race 8 was 2 full seconds faster than Race 7......Both for 3 year olds, both a G1. yes, race 7 was for fillies BUT 2 FULL SECONDS faster for race 8 for a horse who came from Ellis Park?

This is another reason why AP should not have lost. I truly believe NYRA changed the track for him AND he still lost.

thaskalos
08-30-2015, 12:27 AM
This is the sweetest loss since Zenyatta was exposed by Blame.

How the hell was Zenyatta "exposed" by Blame?

If they ran that race 10 times...Zenyatta wins 8 of them.

EMD4ME
08-30-2015, 12:28 AM
How the hell was Zenyatta "exposed" by Blame?

If they ran that race 10 times...Zenyatta wins 8 of them.

And I say if they ran the race 10 times, Blame wins all 10.

thaskalos
08-30-2015, 12:29 AM
And I say if they ran the race 10 times, Blame wins all 10.

Stick to the banking business, son... :)

EMD4ME
08-30-2015, 12:33 AM
How the hell was Zenyatta "exposed" by Blame?

If they ran that race 10 times...Zenyatta wins 8 of them.

4 horse front pack flying along by 8 or 9 lengths. Blame spent more energy staying close to the pace than the sucker upper in the race, Zenyatta.

She jogged for 1/2 a mile, threw herself into the race as it collapsed. No traffic. Inside out trip.

In my trip notes, that's called a perfect trip.

Take away her perfect trip, slower pace, some traffic, she loses every time.

Respectfully, that's why.

Why do I use the word exposed? Because, again, people spoke of her as the UNBEATABLE, broke Cigar's record, one and only Zenyatta.

Was she not exposed in her loss?

What is it with people today? AP ran 2nd, he tried, he was valiant, he was ganged up on, he had a fast 3rd quarter, someone dared challeneg him etc.?

Champions should win. Period, unless there is a major MAJOR effort in defeat (Seattle Slew's best race for example).

HE (AP) LOST, SHE (Z) LOST, with no excuse. That's why I compared the two.

I know you're a major Zenyatta fan, sorry to ruffle your feathers Thaskalos but it's what I see and feel.

EMD4ME
08-30-2015, 12:34 AM
Stick to the banking business, son... :)

In this game it pays to be contrarian my friend...

Thanks for the giggle, after a long day, I can appreciate a good laugh.

Stillriledup
08-30-2015, 12:39 AM
4 horse front pack flying along by 8 or 9 lengths. Blame spent more energy staying close to the pace than the sucker upper in the race, Zenyatta.

She jogged for 1/2 a mile, threw herself into the race as it collapsed. No traffic. Inside out trip.

In my trip notes, that's called a perfect trip.

Take away her perfect trip, slower pace, some traffic, she loses every time.

Respectfully, that's why.

Why do I use the word exposed? Because, again, people spoke of her as the UNBEATABLE, broke Cigar's record, one and only Zenyatta.

Was she not exposed in her loss?

What is it with people today? AP ran 2nd, he tried, he was valiant, he was ganged up on, he had a fast 3rd quarter, someone dared challeneg him etc.?

Champions should win. Period, unless there is a major MAJOR effort in defeat (Seattle Slew's best race for example).

HE (AP) LOST, SHE (Z) LOST, with no excuse. That's why I compared the two.

I know you're a major Zenyatta fan, sorry to ruffle your feathers Thaskalos but it's what I see and feel.

I'm going to go against you here, respectfully of course, and say that mentioning Seattle Slew means to me that you're not really taking into consideration the fragile nature of the modern tbred. What AP did today wouldn't have flown 40 years ago, but his loss today has to be taken in context with the era, the greatness of decades ago was much different, the breed is weaker in todays game and more inconsistent, we can't hold AP to the "1970s standard" of greatness, it's not fair to him to do so.

cj
08-30-2015, 12:41 AM
Forgive me for cherishing his loss. If I though he was a Champion, I would be crying for his loss. I don't think he is one.

He is already a champion, champion 2yo. He'll also be champion 3yo. He'll be Horse of the Year also. Nearly every single champion has losses on its record.

Sadly, he won't run at 4. He might not even run again at 3. So, we'll never really know. It won't be any different with horses like him unless we happen to get a Triple Crown winning gelding. Such is the game today, which is sad.

highnote
08-30-2015, 12:45 AM
He is already a champion, champion 2yo. He'll also be champion 3yo. He'll be Horse of the Year also. Nearly every single champion has losses on its record.

Sadly, he won't run at 4. He might not even run again at 3. So, we'll never really know. It won't be any different with horses like him unless we happen to get a Triple Crown winning gelding. Such is the game today, which is sad.


I was discussing HOY with a friend by email tonight.

What if Honor Code wins the Jockey Club Gold Cup and the BC Classic beating the best horses in the world and earning bigger speed ratings than AP, would AP still get HOY?

My friend pointed out that "Dances with Wolves" beat "Goodfellas" for Best Picture and also "Forrest Gump" beat "Pulp Fiction". His point was that sometimes not winning can be cooler than the alternative.

cj
08-30-2015, 12:49 AM
I was discussing HOY with a friend by email tonight.

What if Honor Code wins the Jockey Club Gold Cup and the BC Classic beating the best horses in the world, would AP still get HOY?

I think so, but stranger things have happened. He'd have 4 G1s and a G2. American Pharoah would have 5 G1s and a G2 and a Triple Crown, first since 1978. That is going to be tough to beat when humans vote.

Stillriledup
08-30-2015, 12:50 AM
I was discussing HOY with a friend by email tonight.

What if Honor Code wins the Jockey Club Gold Cup and the BC Classic beating the best horses in the world and earning bigger speed ratings than AP, would AP still get HOY?

My friend pointed out that "Dances with Wolves" beat "Goodfellas" for Best Picture and also "Forrest Gump" beat "Pulp Fiction". His point was that sometimes not winning can be cooler than the alternative.

I'm pretty sure the trophy is in the mail already.

thaskalos
08-30-2015, 12:51 AM
4 horse front pack flying along by 8 or 9 lengths. Blame spent more energy staying close to the pace than the sucker upper in the race, Zenyatta.

She jogged for 1/2 a mile, threw herself into the race as it collapsed. No traffic. Inside out trip.

In my trip notes, that's called a perfect trip.

Take away her perfect trip, slower pace, some traffic, she loses every time.

Respectfully, that's why.

Why do I use the word exposed? Because, again, people spoke of her as the UNBEATABLE, broke Cigar's record, one and only Zenyatta.

Was she not exposed in her loss?

What is it with people today? AP ran 2nd, he tried, he was valiant, he was ganged up on, he had a fast 3rd quarter, someone dared challeneg him etc.?

Champions should win. Period, unless there is a major MAJOR effort in defeat (Seattle Slew's best race for example).

HE (AP) LOST, SHE (Z) LOST, with no excuse. That's why I compared the two.

I know you're a major Zenyatta fan, sorry to ruffle your feathers Thaskalos but it's what I see and feel.

When you say that "Champions should win, PERIOD!"...it's hard to take you seriously. I've been almost as critical of the Pharoah as you've been...but I would never expect a horse to keep winning all its races in order to be considered a "champion". Long losing streaks are rare...simply because they ALL lose. These are not machines...they are living and breathing creatures.

After the Haskell, you were telling us how impressed you had gotten to be with the Pharoah. And now you've put all that aside...and you are delighting in the horse's defeat. Come on...

cj
08-30-2015, 12:53 AM
When you say that "Champions should win, PERIOD!"...it's hard to take you seriously. I've been almost as critical of the Pharoah as you've been...but I would never expect a horse to keep winning all its races in order to be considered a "champion". Long losing streaks are rare...simply because they ALL lose. These are not machines...they are living and breathing creatures.

After the Haskell, you were telling us how impressed you had gotten to be with the Pharoah. And now you've put all that aside...and you are delighting in the horse's defeat. Come on...

He's being so ridiculous I felt the need to defend Zenyatta...ME!

thaskalos
08-30-2015, 12:53 AM
He's being so ridiculous I felt the need to defend Zenyatta...ME!
I NOTICED THAT! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Cratos
08-30-2015, 12:56 AM
Frosted cooked AP's goose and set it up.

The legend of Saratoga continues.
No he didn't, American Paroah ran a good race and he made two "moves" which is exceptional and he would have had to make the rarity of 3 "moves" to win.

EMD4ME
08-30-2015, 12:59 AM
When you say that "Champions should win, PERIOD!"...it's hard to take you seriously. I've been almost as critical of the Pharoah as you've been...but I would never expect a horse to keep winning all its races in order to be considered a "champion". Long losing streaks are rare...simply because they ALL lose. These are not machines...they are living and breathing creatures.

After the Haskell, you were telling us how impressed you had gotten to be with the Pharoah. And now you've put all that aside...and you are delighting in the horse's defeat. Come on...

I was being a reasonable person and yes, I gave him credit for the Haskell. I am sure no one on here thought EMD4ME was now an AP lover. Forgive me for saying this but I also didn't want to hear all the know it alls on here telling me you're crazy if I said he had a stress free trip in the Haskell, yet again.

Even I, a total AP doubter, said on paper, he can't lose the Travers. That wasn't my formal prediction, that was me as a handicapper saying he SHOULD not lose.

I want to study tomorrow's races, so I dont have the energy to find my exact words BUT I am sure I mentioned caveats in his Haskell. For ex: How will C Edge and Upstart come back? 2) What will AP do when he doesn't get these creme puff trips? Will he crack and lose?

Don't get me wrong, I am not saying a Champion never loses. They all do. But not when they loaf for a half mile, get a track souped up for them MID CARD, get to be lone speed (and I don't care if it was only for a half mile) and can't come home in 26 to finish the deal???

People said that in the Belmont, AP laughed at challenges on the far turn. They tried but they couldn't go with him. I disagreed. AP had already jogged for a mile in ridculously comfortable splits in the Belmont. Once he had a one length lead, no one COULD have made up the length with that flow and those trips. People said Frosted had a perfect trip in the Belmont but couldn't go with him.

So, now that the weak Frosted, made him work in the 3rd and 4th quarters, AP is some sort of a valiant champion for winning that mid race battle?

COME ON FOLKS.

The bar was set. People said he's awesome. One of a kind, best ever possibly.

One of a kind, best ever doesn't lose with his trip today, period.

thaskalos
08-30-2015, 01:02 AM
I was being a reasonable person and yes, I gave him credit for the Haskell. I am sure no one on here thought EMD4ME was now an AP lover. I wan't to study tomorrow's races, so I dont have the energy to find my exact words BUT I am sure I mentioned caveats in his Haskell. For ex: How will C Edge and Upstart come back? 2) What will AP do when he doesn't get these creme puff trips? Will he crack and lose?

Don't get me wrong, I am not saying a Champion never loses. They all do. But not when they loaf for a half mile, get a track souped up for them MID CARD, get to be lone speed (and I don't care if it was only for a half mile) and can't come home in 26 to finish the deal???

People said that in the Belmont, AP laughed at challenges on the far turn. They tried but they couldn't go with him. I disagreed. AP had already jogged for a mile in ridculously comfortable splits in the Belmont. Once he had a one length lead, no one COULD have made up the length with that flow and those trips. People said Frosted had a perfect trip in the Belmont but couldn't go with him.

So, now that they weak Frosted, made him work in the 3rd and 4th quarters, AP is some sort of a valiant champion for winning that mid race battle?

The bar was set. People said he's awesome. One of a kind, best ever possibly.

One of a kind, best ever doesn't lose with his trip today.

As far as I can remember...the only one who called AP "one of a kind and the best ever"...was our friend DeltaLover...who curiously remains silent today. :)

EMD4ME
08-30-2015, 01:05 AM
I'm going to go against you here, respectfully of course, and say that mentioning Seattle Slew means to me that you're not really taking into consideration the fragile nature of the modern tbred. What AP did today wouldn't have flown 40 years ago, but his loss today has to be taken in context with the era, the greatness of decades ago was much different, the breed is weaker in todays game and more inconsistent, we can't hold AP to the "1970s standard" of greatness, it's not fair to him to do so.

Well then, maybe that's my problem, seriously speaking.

I do compare today's breed to horses of yesteryear. I'm not one to say, it's a different era. If today's horses want to be treated like all time champions, then they need to act like all time champions, at least in my tainted eyes.

EMD4ME
08-30-2015, 01:07 AM
As far as I can remember...the only one who called AP "one of a kind and the best ever"...was our friend DeltaLover...who curiously remains silent today. :)

Well, you and I both know his voice and how it resonates :)

All I hear, is his voice saying AP is (Fill in the blanks etc.)

I give him credit though, he did say in advance, if he loses, NO EXCUSES.....

EMD4ME
08-30-2015, 01:10 AM
As far as I can remember...the only one who called AP "one of a kind and the best ever"...was our friend DeltaLover...who curiously remains silent today. :)

I hope he is ok. I didn't see him at Aqueduct at all today. Which is unusual. Did you hear from him today?

Cratos
08-30-2015, 01:23 AM
Of course it tired him. Why? Because he's NOT the superhorse that people claim he is.

That track was so souped up RIGHT BEFORE race 8. The inside and speed all of a sudden became the place to be.

He jogged for a half mile. Any very good horse puts away Frosted and holds off Keen Ice easily.

He is NOT a superhorse. He's been tested twice (and I use the word tested mildly as I dont think he's been reaaaaaaally tested in his trips). Once in the Derby (extremely mild test) and today (not that amazing of a test).

He was visibly done in the third quarter, not winning.

Cigar in the Pacific Classic was a horse who got burned by pace.

AP was not burned by pace or dynamics here.

He was put to the test and failed.

People need to seriously stop thinking with their heart.

There is no way on paper, on the track or if we lived in an upside down world that this horse should have lost today. Lone speed, souped up track, weak 3 year olds, jog for a half mile etc. and he lost.

That's what made it sweeter.

Kudos to Keen Ice because if he didn't suck up, all we would be hearing is how gutsy and admirable AP is.

Paleeeze. He's not gutsy. Medaglia D"oro was gutsy in defeat in the Classic. Seattle Slew ran the best race of his life being gutsy.

I didn't see gutsy out there today.

I saw a horse who was floundering home in almost 27 seconds. (and yes, I get the fact that he ran a fast 3rd n 4th quarters but he had a joke of a first half and any CHAMPION would've had enough in the tank to rattle off a fast second half mile AND A 25 second closing quarter to win by 7) He is off the board if there were 3 decent thoroughbreds out there with him to gobble him up in the lane.

Not being a jerk, speaking logical facts.

This is the sweetest loss since Zenyatta was exposed by Blame.
I am supportive of anyone expressing their opinion except when it becomes ridiculous and in reading your post about the Travers; it was ridiculous.

I am not an adamant American Pharaoh fan, but I will give him credit for running a very tough race and battling to the end.

Also speaking of exposure, did JO Tobin or Dr. Patches expose Seattle Slew? Did Hevedar expose Dr. Fager; and did Onion expose Secretariat?

No, none of those horses were exposed and American Pharoah wasn't exposed because in my opinion if the same group of horses which ran in the Travers would run against each other 10 times, American Pharoah would win 9 of ten.

Stillriledup
08-30-2015, 01:34 AM
Well then, maybe that's my problem, seriously speaking.

I do compare today's breed to horses of yesteryear. I'm not one to say, it's a different era. If today's horses want to be treated like all time champions, then they need to act like all time champions, at least in my tainted eyes.

Treated by who?

Any horse who does anything good will have some people, non racing experts, laud their praises, so what? What's the difference what 'once a year' fans think?

EMD4ME
08-30-2015, 01:42 AM
Treated by who?

Any horse who does anything good will have some people, non racing experts, laud their praises, so what? What's the difference what 'once a year' fans think?

Once a year fans, people on here who treat you like a terrible person if you critique the trips of the almighty AP and people at the track who debate how utterly awesome and untouchable this horse is.

EMD4ME
08-30-2015, 01:53 AM
I am supportive of anyone expressing their opinion except when it becomes ridiculous and in reading your post about the Travers; it was ridiculous.

I am not an adamant American Pharaoh fan, but I will give him credit for running a very tough race and battling to the end.

Also speaking of exposure, did JO Tobin or Dr. Patches expose Seattle Slew? Did Hevedar expose Dr. Fager; and did Onion expose Secretariat?

No, none of those horses were exposed and American Pharoah wasn't exposed because in my opinion if the same group of horses which ran in the Travers would run against each other 10 times, American Pharoah would win 9 of ten.

If any other boring 3 year old ran the race AP ran today, we would be saying, what a gutsy effort by that longshot. We're not talking about some 3 year old. We're talking about a horse who people lined up to say: If he gets pushed, he will go faster. He is a monster, a one of a kind freak.

All I asked for was for him to be tested. Not fried in some 21 44 duel going 10F. Just simple tested, stressed in some way and I wanted to see if he could be the monster that everyone treats him to be.

He failed. He's not some longshot who ran well and is now on people's horses to watch list. He is the almighty AP...

Are people going to seriously sit here and say he was gutsy?

Just 24 hours ago, almost everyone here was saying that he is eons ahead of his peers, he doesn't need the lead, he has another gear we haven't seen, he is awesome beyond comprehension.

He couldn't come home in 26 seconds after receiving his 2nd mild challenge of his life.

If you ask me, he duplicated his Derby, except in the Derby, 10 horses were accordioned into a blender under the stands the first time.

This time, there was one horse with almost 4 legs left so suck him up.

We really going to sit here and say he was gutsy?

Really? Really?......Really?

How low the bar has come for horses in this era....

Liam's Map was awesome in defeat. AP was not awesome in defeat. I'm sure we can rattle off dozens of claimers and alw horses who were more admirable in defeat. This was not one of them.

I'll say it again and going to sleep, if he was a "Champion" he would've won the mid race battle AND came home in 26.

I have less sympathy for a horse who jogged for 1/2 mile as opposed to a horse like Liam's Map who was breaking clocks from the 1st stride, while getting beat on a dead rail track on the wire by a good horse in HC.

thaskalos
08-30-2015, 01:59 AM
4 horse front pack flying along by 8 or 9 lengths. Blame spent more energy staying close to the pace than the sucker upper in the race, Zenyatta.

She jogged for 1/2 a mile, threw herself into the race as it collapsed. No traffic. Inside out trip.

In my trip notes, that's called a perfect trip.

Take away her perfect trip, slower pace, some traffic, she loses every time.

Respectfully, that's why.

Why do I use the word exposed? Because, again, people spoke of her as the UNBEATABLE, broke Cigar's record, one and only Zenyatta.

Was she not exposed in her loss?

What is it with people today? AP ran 2nd, he tried, he was valiant, he was ganged up on, he had a fast 3rd quarter, someone dared challeneg him etc.?

Champions should win. Period, unless there is a major MAJOR effort in defeat (Seattle Slew's best race for example).

HE (AP) LOST, SHE (Z) LOST, with no excuse. That's why I compared the two.

I know you're a major Zenyatta fan, sorry to ruffle your feathers Thaskalos but it's what I see and feel.

I tried to let this go without a response, because PA chides me for my repeated Zenyatta references...but I must make a brief remark:

The only thing that beat Zenyatta was her unfamiliarity with the dirt surface. Any replay-watcher worth his salt could see the horse's obvious discomfort during the beginning stages of that race; she was so far behind the field in the early going that I actually thought that she was going to be pulled up in the race. The way Zenyatta ran in the early going of that race was the equivalent of handing the rest of the field a sizable head start. The fact that she got so close to winning was a testament to her true greatness.

I've also seen you repeatedly state that Zenyatta never passed Blame after the wire...and that is a ludicrous comment. Still photos were posted on this very site...which clearly showed that Zenyatta had her nose in front of Blame two steps after the wire. The great mare was gaining ground on Blame with every step...and yet, you were saying that Blame could have taken her around another turn, and still beaten her. Absolutely ridiculous.

If anyone got a dream trip in that race...it was Blame. Shortly before the race in the War Room of this very site, I made the statement that I wished Garrett Gomez was the Jockey on Zenyatta. A much better finisher than Smith...IMO.

If the great mare squared off against that field one more time...then she would have scared the daylights out of them boys...just as she did in the BC Classic the year prior. Truly a mare like no other...IMO. :ThmbUp:

EMD4ME
08-30-2015, 02:01 AM
If Frosted hooked AP from the bell, AP would've been off the board, eased like Big Brown. He was lucky he got pressed 6F out.

And since when do we need champions to have buttercup easy trips and anything resembling a stressed out trip, becomes an excuse or a "valiant" effort?

AP duplicated his Derby. "All in" mid race, coming home in Meadowland's pacer final quarter times in the Derby and Travers. This time, thank god, Keen Ice was around to suck him up. If not, all my stomach would be hearing is how awesome he was and me thinking, nope. He was just lucky no one else was around to get his staggering legs.

They're not champions until they are tested. He's been MILDLY tested twice. Lucky no one sucked him up in the Derby and thankfully someone sucked him up in the Travers.

EMD4ME
08-30-2015, 02:02 AM
I tried to let this go without a response, because PA chides me for my repeated Zenyatta references...but I must make a brief remark:

The only thing that beat Zenyatta was her unfamiliarity with the dirt surface. Any replay-watcher worth his salt could see the horse's obvious discomfort during the beginning stages of that race; she was so far behind the field in the early going that I actually thought that she was going to be pulled up in the race. The way Zenyatta ran in the early going of that race was the equivalent of handing the rest of the field a sizable head start. The fact that she got so close to winning was a testament to her true greatness.

I've also seen you repeatedly state that Zenyatta never passed Blame after the wire...and that is a ludicrous comment. Still photos were posted on this very site...which clearly showed that Zenyatta had her nose in front of Blame two steps after the wire. The great mare was gaining ground on Blame with every step...and yet, you were saying that Blame could have taken her around another turn, and still beaten her. Absolutely ridiculous.

If anyone got a dream trip in that race...it was Blame. Shortly before the race in the War Room of this very site, I made the statement that I wished Garrett Gomez was the Jockey on Zenyatta. A much better finisher than Smith...IMO.

If the great mare squared off against that field one more time...then she would have scared the daylights out of them boys...just as she did in the BC Classic the year prior. Truly a mare like no other...IMO. :ThmbUp:

I respect your love for Zenyatta Thaskalos, so, I will SHUT UP :)

Stillriledup
08-30-2015, 02:43 AM
Once a year fans, people on here who treat you like a terrible person if you critique the trips of the almighty AP and people at the track who debate how utterly awesome and untouchable this horse is.

That doesn't matter. All that matters is what you believe the truth to be the way you see it. Don't let your desire to 'prove other people wrong' alter the reality of the situation. Stay focused on the horses, it doesn't matter if someone thinks that AP is the greatest who ever lived, all that matters is the tape, and you watch plenty of it, so you know the reality.

dilanesp
08-30-2015, 04:33 AM
I think so, but stranger things have happened. He'd have 4 G1s and a G2. American Pharoah would have 5 G1s and a G2 and a Triple Crown, first since 1978. That is going to be tough to beat when humans vote.

Seattle Slew convincingly beat Affirmed twice in 1978 and didn't win it.

It's dumb to say that a TC winner has to be HOTY, but voters clearly believe that.

I mean, Beholder will have a claim if she wins the Classic, but no way will she get it.

rastajenk
08-30-2015, 05:18 AM
Super horses lose too. He was best today, he lost. Big deal. Your act today is an old one. You're better than that.I think the ensuing pages prove that he is not.

Rex Phinney
08-30-2015, 05:44 AM
I tried to let this go without a response, because PA chides me for my repeated Zenyatta references...but I must make a brief remark:

The only thing that beat Zenyatta was her unfamiliarity with the dirt surface. Any replay-watcher worth his salt could see the horse's obvious discomfort during the beginning stages of that race; she was so far behind the field in the early going that I actually thought that she was going to be pulled up in the race. The way Zenyatta ran in the early going of that race was the equivalent of handing the rest of the field a sizable head start. The fact that she got so close to winning was a testament to her true greatness.

I've also seen you repeatedly state that Zenyatta never passed Blame after the wire...and that is a ludicrous comment. Still photos were posted on this very site...which clearly showed that Zenyatta had her nose in front of Blame two steps after the wire. The great mare was gaining ground on Blame with every step...and yet, you were saying that Blame could have taken her around another turn, and still beaten her. Absolutely ridiculous.

If anyone got a dream trip in that race...it was Blame. Shortly before the race in the War Room of this very site, I made the statement that I wished Garrett Gomez was the Jockey on Zenyatta. A much better finisher than Smith...IMO.

If the great mare squared off against that field one more time...then she would have scared the daylights out of them boys...just as she did in the BC Classic the year prior. Truly a mare like no other...IMO. :ThmbUp:

Gonna full on agree, she basically learned how to race on dirt in a crowded field in a matter of 2 minutes. Within that time frame she had it figured out well enough to run down all the best the world had to offer except one pretty good G1 winner at the top of his game.

PS she was swallowing him up with every stride in the stretch.

CoxHub
08-30-2015, 08:08 AM
Baffert says "Will apologize to horse" in Post-Race reaction.
http://www.coxhub.com/articles/american-pharoah-falls-in-saratogas-travers

Grits
08-30-2015, 08:38 AM
When you say that "Champions should win, PERIOD!"...it's hard to take you seriously. I've been almost as critical of the Pharoah as you've been...but I would never expect a horse to keep winning all its races in order to be considered a "champion". Long losing streaks are rare...simply because they ALL lose. These are not machines...they are living and breathing creatures.

After the Haskell, you were telling us how impressed you had gotten to be with the Pharoah. And now you've put all that aside...and you are delighting in the horse's defeat. Come on...

Thask, thank you. With one simple post you've reminded all that he's waffled back and forth for months. His posts have become so ludicrous it's laughable.

EMD causes others to not want to participate at Pace Advantage because of his obnoxious drama queen schtick, hour after hour. It's never ending, monopolizing. Some will just leave as the show gets real old. Matter of fact, its been old. :faint:

Its easy to wish he'd take a break again. Maybe go and work on his tan before these warm days turn to the crisp ones of Fall.

TravisVOX
08-30-2015, 08:38 AM
PS she was swallowing him up with every stride in the stretch.

And she never got by him. Before, on or even after the wire. Blame was her match.

classhandicapper
08-30-2015, 09:17 AM
OMG....I was screaming dead rail from races 1-7. I'm with you on that.

Once race 8 was run, holy crap, what a CHANGE.

The track got SO much quicker. The rail got so much better. Race 8 saw a boat race of 3 horses running around on a carousel. The 11 was 7 wide on the backstretch but drew clear on the RAIL in the lane. The 4, who finished fourth, rallied inside in the lane into a 23.57 final Q. We didn't see that earlier in the day.

Race 8 was 2 full seconds faster than Race 7......Both for 3 year olds, both a G1. yes, race 7 was for fillies BUT 2 FULL SECONDS faster for race 8 for a horse who came from Ellis Park?

This is another reason why AP should not have lost. I truly believe NYRA changed the track for him AND he still lost.

With all due respect, there are various grades of bad rails and even occasions when the rail is only bad in some sections. Horses run good races and occasionally even win against biases just as they do when they run against race flows. How much of an impact a bias has depends on how how strong it is, how long you are in there, when you are in there, how hard you are working when you are in there, how much reserve energy you have and how much better you are than you opposition.

NYRA was watering and working on the track before just about every dirt race. But the exact timing, amount of water being added, the temperature and wind at the track, and maybe even how the harrows are set are never going to be be perfectly consistent. So you are going to get changes in track speed and biases.

classhandicapper
08-30-2015, 09:28 AM
I tried to let this go without a response, because PA chides me for my repeated Zenyatta references...but I must make a brief remark:

The only thing that beat Zenyatta was her unfamiliarity with the dirt surface. Any replay-watcher worth his salt could see the horse's obvious discomfort during the beginning stages of that race; she was so far behind the field in the early going that I actually thought that she was going to be pulled up in the race. The way Zenyatta ran in the early going of that race was the equivalent of handing the rest of the field a sizable head start. The fact that she got so close to winning was a testament to her true greatness.

I've also seen you repeatedly state that Zenyatta never passed Blame after the wire...and that is a ludicrous comment. Still photos were posted on this very site...which clearly showed that Zenyatta had her nose in front of Blame two steps after the wire. The great mare was gaining ground on Blame with every step...and yet, you were saying that Blame could have taken her around another turn, and still beaten her. Absolutely ridiculous.

If anyone got a dream trip in that race...it was Blame. Shortly before the race in the War Room of this very site, I made the statement that I wished Garrett Gomez was the Jockey on Zenyatta. A much better finisher than Smith...IMO.

If the great mare squared off against that field one more time...then she would have scared the daylights out of them boys...just as she did in the BC Classic the year prior. Truly a mare like no other...IMO. :ThmbUp:

Great post. There was a period after she got squeezed at the start that IMO she was "climbing" due to kickback and was not 100% comfortable. That's when she became disconnected from the field. Then Smith used her to get back into the game.

Zenyatta was handled almost perfectly, but they did make one mistake. They should have gone to Saratoga to take on Rachel at 10F. Rachel was obviously also an all time great filly/mare. She would have been tough for Zenyatta to catch at 9F in the softer filly races where Rachel would control the pace. But at 10F or in a race with other quality speed like any Grade 1 race with males, IMO Zenyatta would have had the upper hand. Going to Saratoga would have given Zenyatta a shot at Rachel going 10F and also given her another race on dirt before the Classsic. IMHO, had they made that move, she would have crushed Rachel given how the race developed and won otherwise, and then won the Classic.

That whole debate makes me sad at this stage even though I was so passionate about it at the time. There are STILL people with otherwise terrific opinions that don't give Zenyatta the respect she deserves. I almost blew a gasket recently at work during a conversation. It's like, what the F does a filly/mare have to do?

It's the whole east coast vs. west coast thing, dirt vs. synthetic thing, and the fact that some less experienced Zenyatta supporters were a little over the top. But really, if you can't tell how incredibly great Zenyatta was, I probably shouldn't even be having a serious conversation with you no matter what your credentials.

comet52
08-30-2015, 10:26 AM
He's being so ridiculous I felt the need to defend Zenyatta...ME!
I noticed that myself... EMD is the board clown at this point.

zico20
08-30-2015, 10:45 AM
Great post. There was a period after she got squeezed at the start that IMO she was "climbing" due to kickback and was not 100% comfortable. That's when she became disconnected from the field. Then Smith used her to get back into the game.

Zenyatta was handled almost perfectly, but they did make one mistake. They should have gone to Saratoga to take on Rachel at 10F. Rachel was obviously also an all time great filly/mare. She would have been tough for Zenyatta to catch at 9F in the softer filly races where Rachel would control the pace. But at 10F or in a race with other quality speed like any Grade 1 race with males, IMO Zenyatta would have had the upper hand. Going to Saratoga would have given Zenyatta a shot at Rachel going 10F and also given her another race on dirt before the Classsic. IMHO, had they made that move, she would have crushed Rachel given how the race developed and won otherwise, and then won the Classic.

That whole debate makes me sad at this stage even though I was so passionate about it at the time. There are STILL people with otherwise terrific opinions that don't give Zenyatta the respect she deserves. I almost blew a gasket recently at work during a conversation. It's like, what the F does a filly/mare have to do?

It's the whole east coast vs. west coast thing, dirt vs. synthetic thing, and the fact that some less experienced Zenyatta supporters were a little over the top. But really, if you can't tell how incredibly great Zenyatta was, I probably shouldn't even be having a serious conversation with you no matter what your credentials.

If I recall correctly the connections didn't think she could travel across the country and back for the Beldame and still be in top shape for the BC. Plus I think they thought she could not beat Rachel at that time. Neither wound up running in that race. Zenyattas connections backed out first from that potentially historic race. Zenyatta was sheltered her entire career. She ventured outside of CA only to go to Oaklawn to beat up on some inferior fillies. I give the owners credit. They did what they had to to keep her winning.

She was a great filly but lets be honest here. Her win in the Classic was a very poor field. And Blame was hardly a world beater by any stretch of the imagination. I give her respect in that she was consistant every race. But she should never be considered among the top horses of all time. Fillies yes, colts no.

Tom
08-30-2015, 10:50 AM
As far as I can remember...the only one who called AP "one of a kind and the best ever"...was our friend DeltaLover...who curiously remains silent today. :)

Someone should go check on him.......

Tom
08-30-2015, 10:52 AM
I didn't see gutsy out there today.

The Travers was the 11th race.
What one were you watching?

EMD4ME
08-30-2015, 10:55 AM
Thask, thank you. With one simple post you've reminded all that he's waffled back and forth for months. His posts have become so ludicrous it's laughable.

EMD causes others to not want to participate at Pace Advantage because of his obnoxious drama queen schtick, hour after hour. It's never ending, monopolizing. Some will just leave as the show gets real old. Matter of fact, its been old. :faint:

Its easy to wish he'd take a break again. Maybe go and work on his tan before these warm days turn to the crisp ones of Fall.

Nice try, not biting.

Your misery is exuded via the words you type. I pity people like you.

Kash$
08-30-2015, 10:56 AM
Seattle Slew convincingly beat Affirmed twice in 1978 and didn't win it.

It's dumb to say that a TC winner has to be HOTY, but voters clearly believe that.

I mean, Beholder will have a claim if she wins the Classic, but no way will she get it.

Seriously if Beholder won the classic by 10 lengths she still wouldnt win HOTY...

Your a fanatic of Beholder...AP accomplished more then the TC..
See who Beholder beat before the PC?

EMD4ME
08-30-2015, 11:01 AM
The Travers was the 11th race.
What one were you watching?

At the risk of having everyone leave PA, as I monopolize with ridiculous thoughts :rolleyes: , I saw a race where the supposed monster, champion, unbeatable, can go faster if asked, AP, couldn't put 6F together after jogging an extremely comfortable first half mile on a track that was maintenanced to his advantage after race 7, that's what I saw.

Glad it's a parimutal game Tom. If I saw what everyone else saw, I'd be disappointed in myself.

If great leaders just saw what everyone else saw, innovations would not have been made, cures for diseases would not have been found, frontiers would not have been found.

I don't make it a point to be contrarian BUT....

I have watched millions of races. I know what I'm looking at.

People need to stop hating the messenger. Just because I not only think different but have the guts to say it doesn't mean I'm the problem.

EMD4ME
08-30-2015, 11:02 AM
Someone should go check on him.......

No seriously, has anyone heard from him???

I changed phones and lost his number.

Our mutual friend is in Greece, so I can't ask him.

EMD4ME
08-30-2015, 11:04 AM
I noticed that myself... EMD is the board clown at this point.

If facts make you a clown, then enroll me in the circus.

As long as I have NYRA rewards, twin spires, my formulator and keep cashing, I'm good :D :D :D

Grits
08-30-2015, 11:12 AM
Nice try, not biting.

Your misery is exuded via the words you type. I pity people like you.

You can ignore me all you want, tough guy. Tough at the track, screaming at jocks in the paddock causing them to hang their heads, tough in NY traffic, etc, etc. All around bad ass. A legend in your own mind.

It fits. Board clown.

I'm tired of what you're doing to Pace Advantage. What you really need to do for a change? Is for once, shut your mouth and handle some criticism like a man. There's more drama in you than two $5, 5 minute hookers fighting for a corner on a Tuesday night!

Robert Fischer
08-30-2015, 11:18 AM
At the risk of having everyone leave PA, as I monopolize with ridiculous thoughts :rolleyes: , I saw a race where the supposed monster, champion, unbeatable, can go faster if asked, AP, couldn't put 6F together after jogging an extremely comfortable first half mile on a track that was maintenanced to his advantage after race 7, that's what I saw.

Glad it's a parimutal game Tom. If I saw what everyone else saw, I'd be disappointed in myself.

If great leaders just saw what everyone else saw, innovations would not have been made, cures for diseases would not have been found, frontiers would not have been found.

I don't make it a point to be contrarian BUT....

I have watched millions of races. I know what I'm looking at.

People need to stop hating the messenger. Just because I not only think different but have the guts to say it doesn't mean I'm the problem.

We just disagree about you being right :D

Congrats for not buying into the hype and thinking that a horse couldn't lose regardless of fitness, competition and trip. Many thought that, and were shocked and disappointed.

EMD4ME
08-30-2015, 11:31 AM
We just disagree about you being right :D

Congrats for not buying into the hype and thinking that a horse couldn't lose regardless of fitness, competition and trip. Many thought that, and were shocked and disappointed.

I appreciate your humor and congrats but I didn't come on here before the Travers and say he will lose, so I don't deserve the congrats.

To be honest, I got sick of people refusing to treat me (Specifically GRITS and others) with the respect that I give others, so I gave him his due for a nice looking Haskell but I still kept saying: Let's see when and if he has the guts to enter a field with real horses AND LET'S SEE what happens when he gets any kind of stress/any kind of challenge.

Yes, it felt DAMN good when Keen Ice was visibly getting him at the 1/8 pole. Yes, I did scream loudly AP is done at the half mile pole.
Yes, I did scream loudly "This feels GREAT at the 1/16 pole".

Yes, I acted like a child in the seconds after the race. It's a game!!!!!!!

In my opinion, for all the people who told me 'I'm crazy, I'm nuts, I'm seeing things, etc" when I critiqued AP, I deserved to say I TOLD YOU SO.

Should I have pulled out my golf clap as he lost??? :lol: :lol: :lol:

Hard2Like
08-30-2015, 11:53 AM
You can ignore me all you want, tough guy. Tough at the track, screaming at jocks in the paddock causing them to hang their heads, tough in NY traffic, etc, etc. All around bad ass. A legend in your own mind.

It fits. Board clown.

I'm tired of what you're doing to Pace Advantage. What you really need to do for a change? Is for once, shut your mouth and handle some criticism like a man. There's more drama in you than two $5, 5 minute hookers fighting for a corner on a Tuesday night!

Hookers leave
Board clowns don't

Alwaysonpoint36
08-30-2015, 11:56 AM
Hookers leave
Board clowns don't


oh damn thats cold :D :D :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

thaskalos
08-30-2015, 12:40 PM
No seriously, has anyone heard from him???

I changed phones and lost his number.

Our mutual friend is in Greece, so I can't ask him.
I tried calling him twice BEFORE the Travers...and he never answered, nor did he call me back.

whodoyoulike
08-30-2015, 12:41 PM
....

Are people going to seriously sit here and say he was gutsy? ...

I thought when he came back at Frosted in the stretch to retake the lead was a gutsy move. Then noticed he hung when KI started his move, I had expected him to have his extra reserve power which he'd shown in recent prior races but he just couldn't.

He didn't give up. It happens!!

PaceAdvantage
08-30-2015, 01:24 PM
how many times does this poor, tired horse have to ship cross-country?WHAT? What is wrong with some people? Poor tired horse? Give me a break...

That's the problem with racing right there. Attitudes like that. Incorrect attitudes I might add.

It's why top class racing has been SO WATERED DOWN since the early to mid 1990s.

This coddling and over-protection of horses has devastated a once great sporting event.

It continues to AMAZE me that people continue to harbor the notion that TWENTY SEVEN DAYS isn't enough time to recuperate from running a race that lasts less than TWO FREAKIN MINUTES.

On top of that, American Pharoah GAINED ABOUT 20 POUNDS since the Travers.

There was no indication of a "poor, tired horse" coming into this race. Pure nonsense that is nothing but highly irritating to read.

cj
08-30-2015, 01:27 PM
WHAT? What is wrong with some people? Poor tired horse? Give me a break...

That's the problem with racing right there. Attitudes like that. Incorrect attitudes I might add.

It's why top class racing has been SO WATERED DOWN since the early to mid 1990s.

This coddling and over-protection of horses has devastated a once great sporting event.

It continues to AMAZE me that people continue to harbor the notion that TWENTY SEVEN DAYS isn't enough time to recuperate from running a race that lasts less than TWO FREAKIN MINUTES.

On top of that, American Pharoah GAINED ABOUT 20 POUNDS since the Travers.

There was no indication of a "poor, tired horse" coming into this race. Pure nonsense that is nothing but highly irritating to read.

Well said. What is so tough about a plane flight? How is it different than standing around in a stall all day? It is one thing if the horse doesn't do well on the flight, but that wasn't the case with this horse.

Another indicator...Keen Ice will train up to the BC. Probably the same for American Pharoah if he runs in the Classic. Two months between races for fit, sound horses? It makes no sense.

PaceAdvantage
08-30-2015, 01:33 PM
This well may have made quite a difference. Pharaoh has racked up more frequent flyer miles than any horse in North America. His not being here to train, and too, his jockey in to ride only him in the Travers, no other races today? I think both of these moves were detrimental. Though taking nothing away from Pharoah who ran the whole way today in defeat.

Keen Ice has been, here, in Saratoga. Dale Romans knew his horse was improving, working well over this track. Subsequently, he put the best jockey in the country on his back. Javier was a smart move.

It was a fine horse race, an exciting one.My memory is poor. Was his prepping for the Belmont Stakes much different? Was Victor's?

linrom1
08-30-2015, 01:36 PM
The race was a disgrace for racing. Frosted was just used up to 'cook' American Pharoah. Zayat Racing should pull all its horses from NYRA tracks.

If the horse was owned by Marylou Whitney or another racing blueblood, this would have never happened.

What is Frosted doing? If the intention was to win the race, he could easily make a move on Pharoah during the stretch-run, but the jock is waiting for Keen Ice to a make move and once he sees him he presses Pharoah.

This race is just as disgraceful as the stunt they puled on Smarty Jones.

Rex Phinney
08-30-2015, 01:43 PM
WHAT? What is wrong with some people? Poor tired horse? Give me a break...

That's the problem with racing right there. Attitudes like that. Incorrect attitudes I might add.

It's why top class racing has been SO WATERED DOWN since the early to mid 1990s.

This coddling and over-protection of horses has devastated a once great sporting event.

It continues to AMAZE me that people continue to harbor the notion that TWENTY SEVEN DAYS isn't enough time to recuperate from running a race that lasts less than TWO FREAKIN MINUTES.

On top of that, American Pharoah GAINED ABOUT 20 POUNDS since the Travers.

There was no indication of a "poor, tired horse" coming into this race. Pure nonsense that is nothing but highly irritating to read.

I've been meaning to add on this that Bayern carried basically the same travel load last year, only he wasn't done yet. He made the trip once more about a month later to run at PARX then back to CA for the BCC.

I think us west coast guys keep up a little bit more on how many times a horse goes cross country (flies), A top level horse out here has todo it a lot more, just part of the gig. Those saying Baffert should have left the horse in NY to train are off base IMO. AP travel has been pretty heavy but not unheard of, and Baffert clearly is the best in the country at shipping cross country.

cj
08-30-2015, 01:47 PM
The race was a disgrace for racing. Frosted was just used up to 'cook' American Pharoah. Zayat Racing should pull all its horses from NYRA tracks.

If the horse was owned by Marylou Whitney or another racing blueblood, this would have never happened.

What is Frosted doing? If the intention was to win the race, he could easily make a move on Pharoah during the stretch-run, but the jock is waiting for Keen Ice to a make move and once he sees him he presses Pharoah.

This race is just as disgraceful as the stunt they puled on Smarty Jones.

The rider was trying to win on Frosted. It isn't like they went 45. I'll never get this kind of post. If you don't want the other horses to try and win, watch a parade.

Rex Phinney
08-30-2015, 01:51 PM
The race was a disgrace for racing. Frosted was just used up to 'cook' American Pharoah. Zayat Racing should pull all its horses from NYRA tracks.

If the horse was owned by Marylou Whitney or another racing blueblood, this would have never happened.

What is Frosted doing? If the intention was to win the race, he could easily make a move on Pharoah during the stretch-run, but the jock is waiting for Keen Ice to a make move and once he sees him he presses Pharoah.

This race is just as disgraceful as the stunt they puled on Smarty Jones.

ZOMG! Frosted shadowed the Pharaoh thru a 48+ half and headed him on the turn. How dare he!!!

If you don't want the lead don't take it, if you're going to run a 1/5 out there you better have thicker skin than that.

Frosted was ensuring the race wouldn't be a cakewalk, making sure AP didn't get the lead with pattycake, candyass speed. Basically Frosted was making sure we got a horse race yesterday and not a parade.

The two horses involved in the "cooking" you describe finished 2nd and 3rd, quit crying.

PaceAdvantage
08-30-2015, 01:52 PM
At the risk of having everyone leave PA, as I monopolize with ridiculous thoughts :rolleyes: , I saw a race where the supposed monster, champion, unbeatable, can go faster if asked, AP, couldn't put 6F together after jogging an extremely comfortable first half mile on a track that was maintenanced to his advantage after race 7, that's what I saw.

Glad it's a parimutal game Tom. If I saw what everyone else saw, I'd be disappointed in myself.

If great leaders just saw what everyone else saw, innovations would not have been made, cures for diseases would not have been found, frontiers would not have been found.

I don't make it a point to be contrarian BUT....

I have watched millions of races. I know what I'm looking at.

People need to stop hating the messenger. Just because I not only think different but have the guts to say it doesn't mean I'm the problem.In my opinion, you're being AS RIDICULOUS as those you chide, but in the opposite direction.

And where are all these people who have been saying AP is the BEST EVER? I can think of maybe ONE person on here who held anywhere near that opinion, but I don't think they were even at that point YET. You're exaggerating beyond the realm of believability, and I have to think you're doing this simply to bust balls.

PaceAdvantage
08-30-2015, 01:55 PM
The race was a disgrace for racing. Frosted was just used up to 'cook' American Pharoah. Zayat Racing should pull all its horses from NYRA tracks.

If the horse was owned by Marylou Whitney or another racing blueblood, this would have never happened.

What is Frosted doing? If the intention was to win the race, he could easily make a move on Pharoah during the stretch-run, but the jock is waiting for Keen Ice to a make move and once he sees him he presses Pharoah.

This race is just as disgraceful as the stunt they puled on Smarty Jones.Oh brother... :rolleyes:

Tom
08-30-2015, 02:12 PM
I've been meaning to add on this that Bayern carried basically the same travel load last year, only he wasn't done yet. He made the trip once more about a month later to run at PARX then back to CA for the BCC.

But he never did on the track what AP did. To this day, he has not spent the energy racing AP has.

Secondbest
08-30-2015, 02:15 PM
Don't know if anyone mentioned it but for What Is worth they ran 1.43 seconds faster than the derby

Cratos
08-30-2015, 02:54 PM
And she never got by him. Before, on or even after the wire. Blame was her match.
If you want to dream; be my guest, but Zenyatta was better than Blame and passed him after the wire.

johnhannibalsmith
08-30-2015, 03:07 PM
The race was a disgrace for racing. Frosted was just used up to 'cook' American Pharoah. Zayat Racing should pull all its horses from NYRA tracks.

If the horse was owned by Marylou Whitney or another racing blueblood, this would have never happened.

What is Frosted doing? If the intention was to win the race, he could easily make a move on Pharoah during the stretch-run, but the jock is waiting for Keen Ice to a make move and once he sees him he presses Pharoah.

This race is just as disgraceful as the stunt they puled on Smarty Jones.

Wow.

Rex Phinney
08-30-2015, 03:12 PM
But he never did on the track what AP did. To this day, he has not spent the energy racing AP has.

If you think that makes a difference fine. Bayern won a 7f race at Belmont in June and a $5,000,000 10f race at Santa Anita in November. With victories at Monmouth and PARX in between.

Point is the travel is no excuse. Not with Baffert steering the ship.

onefast99
08-30-2015, 03:16 PM
If you think that makes a difference fine. Bayern won a 7f race at Belmont in June and a $5,000,000 10f race at Santa Anita in November. With victories at Monmouth and PARX in between.

Point is the travel is no excuse. Not with Baffert steering the ship.
9000 miles traveled in 30 days and you compare that to Bayerns travel itinerary over a 6 month period? Add the extra time it took to get to Saratoga and the difference in temperatures from running in June and November compared to AP who ran in August.

Steve R
08-30-2015, 03:31 PM
And she never got by him. Before, on or even after the wire. Blame was her match.
The Jockey Club Scale of Weights hasn't changed in 100 years. It equates 1 pound at 10f with 1 length. Therefore, if they finished on essentially even terms it says that Blame was actually 3 pounds (or 3 lengths) superior because the mare had a 3-pound weight advantage. That's the way the Racing Post viewed it rating Blame at 131 and Zenyatta at 128. In addition, Blame was also far back early, about 10 lengths behind after a half mile and three-quarters and racing 3- to 4-wide throughout. It's not like he had nothing to overcome. So yes, I agree. Blame was at least her match that day and probably superior.

Steve R
08-30-2015, 03:42 PM
Seriously if Beholder won the classic by 10 lengths she still wouldnt win HOTY...

Your a fanatic of Beholder...AP accomplished more then the TC..
See who Beholder beat before the PC?
That's crazy. If Beholder wins the Classic she will have an undefeated season (assuming she doesn't race again before the BC) beating the top males in training twice. American Pharoah (unless he defeats older horses prior to the BC) will have never won outside of his age-restricted division and will have lost his final two starts. Winning the TC is admirable but they are in reality restricted races. Their names are just labels and don't tell us anything about their quality. Giacomo's Derby will never be compared favorably to, say, Barbaro's. So forget the labels. Just about every American speed figure maker agreed that the three TC races this year were average at best or below average. If American Pharoah gets beaten by Beholder there is no way he should seriously be considered the best horse in training in 2015.

PaceAdvantage
08-30-2015, 03:44 PM
That's crazy. If Beholder wins the Classic she will have an undefeated season (assuming she doesn't race again before the BC) beating the top males in training twice. American Pharoah (unless he defeats older horses prior to the BC) will have never won outside of his age-restricted division and will have lost his final two starts.Kind of like California Chrome? And he didn't even win the TC...

anotherCAfan
08-30-2015, 03:57 PM
WHAT? What is wrong with some people? Poor tired horse? Give me a break...

That's the problem with racing right there. Attitudes like that. Incorrect attitudes I might add.

It's why top class racing has been SO WATERED DOWN since the early to mid 1990s.

This coddling and over-protection of horses has devastated a once great sporting event.

It continues to AMAZE me that people continue to harbor the notion that TWENTY SEVEN DAYS isn't enough time to recuperate from running a race that lasts less than TWO FREAKIN MINUTES.

On top of that, American Pharoah GAINED ABOUT 20 POUNDS since the Travers.

There was no indication of a "poor, tired horse" coming into this race. Pure nonsense that is nothing but highly irritating to read.
PA -- Since he won the Triple Crown, all I can think of is "worst-case scenarios" such as a training accident or a spill. Shipping AP cross-country multiple times does not assuage my fears.

On a similar note, when B. Wayne Hughes said he wanted Beholder in a match race against American Pharoah, I thought of Ruffian. Not the response you want to hear, I know.

PaceAdvantage
08-30-2015, 04:00 PM
So are you one of those who thinks the objective, smart thing to do is immediately retire a Triple Crown winner?

dilanesp
08-30-2015, 04:06 PM
That's crazy. If Beholder wins the Classic she will have an undefeated season (assuming she doesn't race again before the BC) beating the top males in training twice. American Pharoah (unless he defeats older horses prior to the BC) will have never won outside of his age-restricted division and will have lost his final two starts. Winning the TC is admirable but they are in reality restricted races. Their names are just labels and don't tell us anything about their quality. Giacomo's Derby will never be compared favorably to, say, Barbaro's. So forget the labels. Just about every American speed figure maker agreed that the three TC races this year were average at best or below average. If American Pharoah gets beaten by Beholder there is no way he should seriously be considered the best horse in training in 2015.

If Beholder wins the Classic, i would vote for her.

But i lost this argument in 1978. They wouldn't vote against a TC winner under any circumstance.

anotherCAfan
08-30-2015, 04:09 PM
So are you one of those who thinks the objective, smart thing to do is immediately retire a Triple Crown winner?
Not necessarily -- I just think there is "not much to prove" until a race against older horses (i.e. BC Classic). Perhaps in hindsight, the Haskell wasn't critical for AP to run in (since the owners are New Jersey folks, understandably it had to occur).

Any little thing that can be done to make the horse's training easier, should be done. For example, if a New York-based horse wins the Triple Crown, I won't clamor for him to run at Santa Anita.

Imagine if said hypothetical New York-based horse shipped to Los Alamitos for their big July race (that hypothetically has the prestige of the Haskell), and then shipped back to New York, only to ship back to Del Mar for an early-August race (had to change the dates to meet this scenario). Is that a recommended course of action?

(I know that my scenario is completely out of left field, since Los Alamitos doesn't have a thoroughbred race nearly as prestigious as the Haskell, never mind the Travers. That's why it's hypothetical!)

dilanesp
08-30-2015, 04:12 PM
Not necessarily -- I just think there is "not much to prove" until a race against older horses (i.e. BC Classic). Perhaps in hindsight, the Haskell wasn't critical for AP to run in (since the owners are New Jersey folks, understandably it had to occur).

Any little thing that can be done to make the horse's training easier, should be done. For example, if a New York-based horse wins the Triple Crown, I won't clamor for him to run at Santa Anita.

Imagine if said hypothetical New York-based horse shipped to Los Alamitos for their big July race (that hypothetically has the prestige of the Haskell), and then shipped back to New York, only to ship back to Del Mar for an early-August race (had to change the dates to meet this scenario). Is that a recommended course of action?

(I know that my scenario is completely out of left field, since Los Alamitos doesn't have a thoroughbred race nearly as prestigious as the Haskell, never mind the Travers. That's why it's hypothetical!)

It's not nearly that crazy. The Los Al Derby is the continuation of the Swaps, which Seattle Slew famously did ship out for.

Steve R
08-30-2015, 06:18 PM
Kind of like California Chrome? And he didn't even win the TC...
Last year it came down to whether or not the BC Classic alone was enough to make the difference between California Chrome and Bayern because the older division was pretty weak. There were valid arguments on both sides. I think it would be different if Beholder wins the Classic because she will have shown complete and unquestioned dominance over both sexes in open company, although because the Eclipse awards are to an extent popularity contests it probably wouldn't matter if American Pharoah came in last because most people are simply enamored with the label "Triple Crown". I prefer to evaluate horses on the basis of their physical performance rather than the names of the races they won, so I would lean toward the filly if she won the Classic in good style.

Rex Phinney
08-30-2015, 08:10 PM
9000 miles traveled in 30 days and you compare that to Bayerns travel itinerary over a 6 month period? Add the extra time it took to get to Saratoga and the difference in temperatures from running in June and November compared to AP who ran in August.

Bayern ran in Preakness, The Woody Stephens, The Haskell, The Travers and the Pennsylania Derby.

The last 4 all had trips back to CA involved. This is nearly a mirror image of AP travel so far.

I was referring to the schedule from June to November not just the two races on each end of the timeline

EMD4ME
08-30-2015, 10:47 PM
If you want to dream; be my guest, but Zenyatta was better than Blame and passed him after the wire.


Isn't that a 5 drawing away after the wire? A 5 belonging to Baaaalaaaaaammmeee (to quote Trevor...)?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pj-uegbEew

EMD4ME
08-30-2015, 10:49 PM
I thought when he came back at Frosted in the stretch to retake the lead was a gutsy move. Then noticed he hung when KI started his move, I had expected him to have his extra reserve power which he'd shown in recent prior races but he just couldn't.

He didn't give up. It happens!!

It happened twice, IN BOTH TIMES THAT HE WAS STRESSED. In the Derby he was super mega alllll out and needed to bump a horse I have little respect for, Firing Line, to "win" the Derby and 10 horses to get accordioned out of the race completely.

The only other time he gets tested, he can't finish.

See the common occurence?

Not a superstar.

EMD4ME
08-30-2015, 10:56 PM
In my opinion, you're being AS RIDICULOUS as those you chide, but in the opposite direction.

And where are all these people who have been saying AP is the BEST EVER? I can think of maybe ONE person on here who held anywhere near that opinion, but I don't think they were even at that point YET. You're exaggerating beyond the realm of believability, and I have to think you're doing this simply to bust balls.

Not busting balls. I am dead serious. Yes, Delta Lover has touted him as the best ever and countless others have snickered at me like a psycho fool when I put his races under a microscope and critiqued him.

All I asked is that he get stressed, get just a little bit of a challenge and let's see if he's immortal, awesome, the cream of the crop.

He got tested and LOST.

Nevermind how the track was in his favor, the first half was a joke etc.

That's just all the more reason to feel even more vindication for his loss.

I'm opinionated. This horse is not Cigar, he is not Holy Bull, HELL, Smarty Jones was better than this horse.

People want to use the term tough luck loser, or gutsy, try WATCHING the 2004 Belmont Stakes.

Try watching Afleet Alex in the Derby, THAT IS GUTSY.

Finally, I am not pulling anyone's chain. Not trying to rile anyone up. I mean every word I say, dead serious.

By the way, I had no clue you posted that morning. AWESOME HANDICAPPING :) Wish I saw it. I was too immersed in getting final thoughts on that card.

mostpost
08-31-2015, 01:40 AM
He won an average pace battle and was visibly not winning from the 1/2 mile pole.
Maybe you can call it an average pace battle for the first half mile, but certainly not for the second. American Pharoah ran that second half mile in 46.78. I went back and looked at a lot of Travers going back into the forties. I could not find a single time when that second half mile was run faster than 46.78. I could not find a single time when it was run faster than 48 seconds flat. I also could not find a single time when the mile was run faster than 1:35.08.

Obviously American Pharoah did not win the Travers, but to say he was not visibly winning from the 1/2 mile pole is foolish. He came back after Frosted passed him in mid stretch, put that one away and only lost to Keen Ice by 3/4 of a length.

If this horse is the super wonder horse that everyone speaks of, he should not have lost that race.

He's not a super wonder horse in my opinion.
We are well aware of your opinion and we don't care. Also, I don't recall anyone calling AP a super wonder horse-whatever that means.

You were the one saying when asked horses don't go faster.

He was tested, he was asked, just like he was in the Derby.

His Derby was not impressive to me. Said it 10000 times.

Keep in mind , I love the classic angle of horses who win pace battles and lose the war but I was not impressed by this winning of a pace battle and losing the war.
I did not look at every Travers ever run, but I am 90% certain that AP's second half was the fastest in Travers history. If his mile time was not the fastest it was very close. After all that he was passed in the stretch, came back to put that rival away, then lost to a late closer who had nothing to do with the fast pace. Yet, you are not impressed. :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

TravisVOX
08-31-2015, 08:01 AM
If you want to dream; be my guest, but Zenyatta was better than Blame and passed him after the wire.

I was sitting passed the wire. No she didn't.

aaron
08-31-2015, 10:05 AM
Derby- Top 3 finishers came from 3rd 2nd 1st. Don't think there's ever been a Derby that ran 321 around the track. 10 horses were accordioned to trip death in that race under the stands the first time.

Preakness-Beat some tomato cans. 2 "contenders" in race. 1 was pulled to make sure he didn't interfere with his entrymate and the other drowned at the start. Unimpressive.

Belmont-A 1975 Yonker's raceway boat race. Only other speed was "sick" with a bug in the barn. Everyone else sat off running for 2nd till the race was over on the far turn.

I wasn't alive when the other TC's were won but it is a VERY WEAK Triple Crown accomplishment.

Hate to be the scrooge, I do want to love him as a superstar but I can't.

I'm not whining, I love this. I hope and pray he runs again. Win or lose, I'll triple fist bets against him.

Sorry, I can't be the homer that you want me to be. I speak of what I see, not speak what my heart tells me to see.
Have to disagree with you on this. If you had seen Seattle Slew's Triple Crown you would probably be saying it was a very weak Triple Crown. After Slew's debacle in California you would probably have thought you were right,but you would have been proven wrong and not just wrong,but way wrong. Unfortunately,American Pharaoh will not race enough to prove my point,no matter what he does or does not do in the Breeders Cup.

EMD4ME
08-31-2015, 10:07 AM
I did not look at every Travers ever run, but I am 90% certain that AP's second half was the fastest in Travers history. If his mile time was not the fastest it was very close. After all that he was passed in the stretch, came back to put that rival away, then lost to a late closer who had nothing to do with the fast pace. Yet, you are not impressed. :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

How many times do I have to say this?

It was a slow first half, TOTALLY stress free. If this horse can't run a Fast 2nd half mile AND MORE IMPORTANTLY come home in 26, HOW GOOD IS HE???

More importantly, HOW GREAT IS HE?

It's the second time he had some "stress", he floundered home in the Derby, lucky that 10 horses were accordioned out of the race. If just one of them were not destroyed under the stands the first time, HE WOULD HAVE LOST the Derby. In his 2nd stress test, he could not run a complete race AGAIN.

That's my point. Superstars do run complete races. Not just very good races when they have ultra stress free trips and things their own way.

EMD4ME
08-31-2015, 10:14 AM
Have to disagree with you on this. If you had seen Seattle Slew's Triple Crown you would probably be saying it was a very weak Triple Crown. After Slew's debacle in California you would probably have thought you were right,but you would have been proven wrong and not just wrong,but way wrong. Unfortunately,American Pharaoh will not race enough to prove my point,no matter what he does or does not do in the Breeders Cup.

My mentor speaks of Seattle Slew all the time. I wasn't playing horses when Slew was around so I can't speak.

I'm not one to say the field was weak. I'm strictly talking trips. My stomach has been telling me from day 1 this is not a superstar as he has not been stressed in his races. The Derby and the Travers are perfect examples of what I'm saying. Put him in anything other than a field of cream puffs with a perfect trip and he's just not the superstar that people think he is.

I did say many times, I want to see him stressed. If he's stressed and wins like he does, I will eat crow and say he is the greatest thing since sliced bread.

Yes, Competitive Edge was bumped at the start (saturday) but that Haskell is not looking as amazing as I thought it could be. Edge made no runs. Upstart didn't impress in the Travers and although Keen Ice did technically win the Travers, he did so in a picking up the pieces fashion.

If he comes back and wins (not gave a nice effort and lost) the BCC, I will deserve to be ripped to smitherines. He won't. If he does more to power to everyone on here.

EMD4ME
08-31-2015, 10:17 AM
Have to disagree with you on this. If you had seen Seattle Slew's Triple Crown you would probably be saying it was a very weak Triple Crown. After Slew's debacle in California you would probably have thought you were right,but you would have been proven wrong and not just wrong,but way wrong. Unfortunately,American Pharaoh will not race enough to prove my point,no matter what he does or does not do in the Breeders Cup.

And sadly you're right about the fact that he will not race long enough to prove/unprove any thoughts by people.

That is why every race after his TC had/has SO much import to his legacy.

I didn't create that, the current state of the game did.

onefast99
08-31-2015, 10:45 AM
To use an analogy, the Yankees of the 2000's should have won 6 championships. They were buying players left and right. They were GOLIATH vs. little David's.
27 world championships. I would guess you are a Red Sox fan, nothing wrong with that but don't put the Yankees down for putting baseball back on the map after all the issues it had!

Stillriledup
08-31-2015, 10:54 AM
LOL yeah the first horse to win the triple crown in 37 years but the whole world is gonna downplay the accomplishment because you are a whiny little girl.

The only question left in my mind is how long it will take PA to ban your ass. Horses lose, even superstars show some goddamn respect moron.

I questioned AP a lot too but never tried shooting holes in the fact that he is a true champ, one of only 12 ever to accomplish the feat.

Show some respect? Why? EMD has layed out his case as to why ap isn't as great as some people think. His specific argument goes into detail as to why ap gets more respect than he deserves, that's his opinion, why should he change his opinion?

EMD4ME
08-31-2015, 11:03 AM
To use an analogy, the Yankees of the 2000's should have won 6 championships. They were buying players left and right. They were GOLIATH vs. little David's.
27 world championships. I would guess you are a Red Sox fan, nothing wrong with that but don't put the Yankees down for putting baseball back on the map after all the issues it had!

Does the word context mean anything to you?

EMD4ME
08-31-2015, 11:05 AM
Show some respect? Why? EMD has layed out his case as to why ap isn't as great as some people think. His specific argument goes into detail as to why ap gets more respect than he deserves, that's his opinion, why should he change his opinion?

I did show respect. After his win in the Belmont (in my eyes a boat race but whatever, I didn't say it) I congratulated him and all his followers.

After the Haskell, CJ asked for my thoughts. I gave him all his due, with no butts.

Where I come from, that is a even headed response and respectful.

onefast99
08-31-2015, 11:49 AM
Does the word context mean anything to you?
yes, and your use of the Yankees was out of context, keep trying.

Steve R
08-31-2015, 12:40 PM
I did not look at every Travers ever run, but I am 90% certain that AP's second half was the fastest in Travers history. If his mile time was not the fastest it was very close. After all that he was passed in the stretch, came back to put that rival away, then lost to a late closer who had nothing to do with the fast pace. Yet, you are not impressed. :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:
You need to clarify your comment because Keen Ice ran a faster second half mile than American Pharoah by about 0.1 seconds. And last year V. E. Day ran his second half in :45.49 compared to American Pharoah's :46.78. Also, in his Travers Honest Pleasure got a mile in 1:35 flat and still won in 2:00.1.

Regardless of the raw times (which are generally a mistake to quote anyway because of track variability), this year's Travers was rated 4 to 5 points below the 25-year average by both Equibase and Beyer. My own figures show a similar result. The Racing Post, which is an overall performance rating and not strictly a speed figure and has been very generous to American Pharoah assigning him a 131 in the Haskell, rated his Travers performance his poorest of any since March.

I guess when someone is emotionally connected to a horse, objectivity takes a back seat.

OntheRail
08-31-2015, 01:03 PM
Or maybe I'm the complete opposite of a ****ing moron?

And because you're a ****ing moron, you're not intelligent enough to see the wisdom in my words?

BTW genius...here ya go...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLejHqQH2Ag

Maybe you need an education....She was sucking up on Blame but when Blame saw her he turned her away, EVIDENCED BY HIM BEING AHEAD AFTER THE WIRE (It's called the GALLOP OUT).

Jeez, just how blinded are you Zenyatta/American Pharoah homers anyway?

If PA had a Class Rating... Yours would be in the lowest tier. Like I said before your not a fan of the sport... how can you not appreciate what Pharoah and Zenyatta did on the track or the 5k claimer in the 5th at Podunk Downs. Your the kind of guy that yells out PIG at a horse cause he beat your picks. Win or lose your just classless.

no breathalyzer
08-31-2015, 01:08 PM
The race was a disgrace for racing. Frosted was just used up to 'cook' American Pharoah. Zayat Racing should pull all its horses from NYRA tracks.

If the horse was owned by Marylou Whitney or another racing blueblood, this would have never happened.

What is Frosted doing? If the intention was to win the race, he could easily make a move on Pharoah during the stretch-run, but the jock is waiting for Keen Ice to a make move and once he sees him he presses Pharoah.

This race is just as disgraceful as the stunt they puled on Smarty Jones.


Is this a troll post? This guy can't be serious can he? :lol:

Stillriledup
08-31-2015, 01:31 PM
If PA had a Class Rating... Yours would be in the lowest tier. Like I said before your not a fan of the sport... how can you not appreciate what Pharoah and Zenyatta did on the track or the 5k claimer in the 5th at Podunk Downs. Your the kind of guy that yells out PIG at a horse cause he beat your picks. Win or lose your just classless.

Most people are fans of themselves and their pockets. Is it somehow less admirable to just want to cash bets? Do we have to root for the success of others in order to be 'fans'?

Rex Phinney
08-31-2015, 01:35 PM
I'm no AP homer, I bet against him in ever race except the derby. I finally got to cash a ticket on Saturday. The point is you can cash the ticket without the drama.

Keen Ice ran a good race and AP got beat, it's horse racing, no big deal. Just because he lost one race I'm not quite ready to trash his Triple Crown accomplishment, the feat is rare enough that I just can't buy a horse "got lucky" to win it.

Rex Phinney
08-31-2015, 01:41 PM
Your offensive name-calling aside, you seem to have ignored the fact that the mare had a 3-pound weight advantage which, according the the Jockey Club Scale of Weights that has been unchanged in 100 years, is equivalent to three lengths at 10f. The Racing Post recognized that by assigning Blame a 131 and Zenyatta a 128. IOW, they maintain he was 3 lengths better. Said differently, it suggests that at equal weights she loses by three lengths and reasonable people would have said she lost fair and square.

And even if she did have issues out of the gate, what's the significance of her "struggling with the surface" early? It seems to me that the inability to handle multiple surfaces is a knock rather than an asset, so am I supposed to give her credit for not handling it well?

That is a whole bunch of assuming and what ifs.

I feel pretty confident that in real life, not make believe, she lost more than 3 lengths in the first 1/4, so what you are saying just doesn't mean anything. I can't remember ever seeing a horse struggle like that and figure it out to finish like she did. In a $5,000,000 race no less. She didn't win but bringing down that effort is pretty lame.

OntheRail
08-31-2015, 04:17 PM
Most people are fans of themselves and their pockets. Is it somehow less admirable to just want to cash bets? Do we have to root for the success of others in order to be 'fans'?
Cashing a ticket is wonderful... being classless win or lose... well just makes his type baying jackasses. Maybe I'm a odd duck... I can smile and have a good thing say about any winner... if I cash or not. I can appreciate the horses effort put forth. ;)

Stillriledup
08-31-2015, 05:30 PM
Cashing a ticket is wonderful... being classless win or lose... well just makes his type baying jackasses. Maybe I'm a odd duck... I can smile and have a good thing say about any winner... if I cash or not. I can appreciate the horses effort put forth. ;)

You seem to be saying that he's classless because he doesn't appreciate he sport, most of us put cashing our own tickets above the participants, we just want to cash tickets, to each his own.

PaceAdvantage
09-01-2015, 01:44 AM
How many times do I have to say this?

It was a slow first half, TOTALLY stress free. If this horse can't run a Fast 2nd half mile AND MORE IMPORTANTLY come home in 26, HOW GOOD IS HE???

More importantly, HOW GREAT IS HE?

It's the second time he had some "stress", he floundered home in the Derby, lucky that 10 horses were accordioned out of the race. If just one of them were not destroyed under the stands the first time, HE WOULD HAVE LOST the Derby. In his 2nd stress test, he could not run a complete race AGAIN.

That's my point. Superstars do run complete races. Not just very good races when they have ultra stress free trips and things their own way.Can you at least be a little objective?

He didn't lose by much. He was pressed basically the entire trip, and he ran the fastest mile time in Travers history.

Yeah, he didn't win. So what? Most of the best horses of ALL TIME have lost...plenty...

I'd say quit while you are ahead, but that time passed eons ago...

Steve R
09-01-2015, 09:34 AM
That is a whole bunch of assuming and what ifs.

I feel pretty confident that in real life, not make believe, she lost more than 3 lengths in the first 1/4, so what you are saying just doesn't mean anything. I can't remember ever seeing a horse struggle like that and figure it out to finish like she did. In a $5,000,000 race no less. She didn't win but bringing down that effort is pretty lame.
You may be confidant but that doesn't make you right. I just watched the race again and Denman makes no reference to any problems the mare may have had other than that she was slow into stride (as always) while describing the pace as "very solid early". The race chart also says nothing about issues early on saying she was "unhurried". In fact, she was slower through the first half mile in her Classic win than in the loss to Blame. And I could be wrong but I believe Blame actually covered a bit more ground.

I didn't bring down her effort. It was what it was. She earned a 111 Beyer, second best to her career high of 112 and neither of which are of historical significance. Frankly, I thought she was one of the most overrated horses I have seen in many years which I attribute to many people being more enamored of win streaks and race names than actual physiological expression. But that's just me. I'm not a horseplayer so I'm less concerned with winning than I am with the physics of the performance. After centuries of breeders breeding for more speed I expect the "greats" to be really fast. You know. Like Secretariat, Man o' War or Citation. She wasn't.

EMD4ME
09-01-2015, 09:35 AM
I'd say quit while you are ahead, but that time passed eons ago...

:lol: :lol: :lol: You're darn right......At this point, there's no rallying from where people have placed me in their eyes and I simply don't care.

Now, on to being objective. Yes, he won the mid race battle and ran somewhat gamely in defeat.

If we were discussing the 8th at AQU in NOV, I'd say: Nice race, horse to possibly follow up on.

There are 2 BUTS:

1) He was not pressed the entire way. He jogged a slow opening quarter on a quickened racetrack on a straightaway with only his SHADOW to keep him company. He also had an extremely comfortable 2nd quarter with Frosted not yet to his butt.

2) The BAR has been raised on this horse. Not by me but by allllllllll the people who insist he is one of the greatest horses in the last decade, 3 decades etc. all because he won 3 designated races called the Triple Crown. People DO NOT want to hear anything negative about their American Pharoah. THEY created the bar being SO HIGH, not me.

So, since the bar is so high, yes, I do expect the ALMIGHT AP to win a pace battle, on what I saw as a golden RAIL for races 8, 9 and 11, especially after he jogged 4 or 5F before even being kept company by Frosted AND since the bar was created so high by all these AP lovers, THAT HE FINISH THE RACE OFF IN UNDER 26 1/2 seconds AND WIN.

Did Cigar complain in the Dubai World Cup when he was surrounded by a phalanx of horses, turned them all away AND then had to deal with a rallying SOUL OF THE MATTER? No, he dug his hooves in and SAID NO WAY YOU'RE GOING BY ME.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ER5-uGMCQHo

Did Tiznow, post 9/11, have a stress free trip in the BCC????

What did Tiznow do when he was spending horse chasing Albert the Great and had Sakhee push and pass him nearing the 1/4 of the BCC??? Did he have a right to fold as he was being HERDED out by Albert the Great and caught 3/4 of a length behind AND IN BETWEEN ATG and Sakhee?? Of course he had every right to fold and be called game and gutsy in defeat but he didn't. HE RERALLIED AND OVERCAME ADVERSITY as true Champions do.

As Tom Durkin would be known to say, he was DIGGING DOWWWWWWWNNNN DEEEEEPPPP....AND as Tom Durkin did say, AND HE WINS IT FOR AMERICA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0QqdYJeCts

That's what I wanted to see from AP IF he was given any stress.

Except in this once in a lifetime opporturnity to overcome, when he received the slightest bit of stress....He crumbled.

When has this world become so weak? Giving trophies to kids who lose in little league? Saying great job to people who perform averagely?

If you haven't guessed it by now, I am not going to patronize anyone. This horse is over rated and I am not ashamed to admit it.

EMD4ME
09-01-2015, 10:00 AM
If PA had a Class Rating... Yours would be in the lowest tier. Like I said before your not a fan of the sport... how can you not appreciate what Pharoah and Zenyatta did on the track or the 5k claimer in the 5th at Podunk Downs. Your the kind of guy that yells out PIG at a horse cause he beat your picks. Win or lose your just classless.

1) I am a HUGE FAN of the sport, not just a $500,000-$700,000 a year horseplayer.

How many non fans, sit and watch races from the 70's, 80's, 90's, 2000
s over and over again and CRY, YES CRY as they remember those races like they were yesterday?????

How many non fans, sit and watch trips and traps as they fell asleep every single night???

How many non fans, devote most of their free time to this game???

How many non fans, travel to 20-30 racetracks, BY CAR, just to see the track in person????

How many non fans, visit horse farms just to pet the horses and ride them??????

How many non fans, drive in their car and scream go left handed as they pass a stupid slow driver in the left lane????

How many non fans, wish it could have been possible that Ramon Dominguez could visit his mother as she suffers through 2 CRANIOTOMIES and brain damage to her brain??????

How many non fans, would try and get a job in the horse industry because they love the game and not for the salary involved?????

How many non fans, have watched the 1995 BCC 500,0000 times over and over and over and over and over and over again?????

How many non fans, have tried to find the 1 horse racing video game to the point where they went to every store in NYC to find one (back in the 90's and 2000's)??????????

How many non fans, drove to Penn National once a month, for 10 years, partially to smell the smell of horse shit ???????? (I LIVE 4 HOURS AWAY IN NY).

How many non fans, STAND UP FOR THE NATIONAL ANTHEM at 12:00, despite being at HOME AND NOT AT THE TRACK???

How many non fans, created lyrics for the National Anthem, that ARE ALL HORSE RACING WORDS????

How many non fans, tell their girlfriend, EMD4ME wants to go to the store for you now BUT Jerry Bailey says NO, NOT YET.

How many non fans, GO TO THE TRACK 156 times a year???????

How many non fans, run on the treadmill and when they get tired, tell themselves to, DIG DOWN DEEP????

How many non fans, time their walk from the car to the office and when it comes up in 44 seconds, say to themselves, I COULD WIN THE BC SPRINT????

How many non fans, google, closed racetracks and read up on closed tracks from yesteryear??????

How many non fans, wish they could've been at Shenandoah Downs, Bowie just once when the game was king????

How many non fans, try and walk a straight line on the sidewalk so they don't drift out and get DQ'd???

For people to claim, I am not a fan of this game, is a tragedy.

You want me to be blunt? I pay for the salaries of 10 FT employees at Aqueduct. How many of YOU can say that? I support this game with MY time, my love for it, my churning and all because I state the obvious to an intelligent professional horseplayer's eye, I get attacked?

2) Just because I critique a horse's trips and his ability with a microscope does not make me classless. He is NOT a great horse in my eyes.

3) I'll say it point blank and I've detailed why since prior to his Derby, after his Derby win, before his Preakness, after his Preakness, before his Belmont and after his Belmont.

His Triple Crown achievement is one of the weakest accomplishments that I have ever seen. He is over rated, period.

It's not his fault his competition in each race either was 1) weak or 2) lost all shot due to racing luck BUT

Overall, he was one lucky horse in each of his 3 Triple Crown wins. I have detailed why, with a pin point laser. If you disagree, no problem.

BUT DON'T EVER, QUESTION ME BEING A FAN OF THIS GAME.

classhandicapper
09-01-2015, 10:02 AM
EMD4ME,

The problem is not with your analysis of the Travers (though I disagree with you on some of the details). It's that you are throwing out an entire career of domination and concluding that a single subpar effort justifies diminishing the performances before that.

The horse that lost the Travers was not the same horse that won the Haskell or Triple Crown. We may never get to see that same horse. He may not run again. And even if he does, he may already be over the the top and unable to move back forward and develop as he would have. It's not that unusual for horses to wear down after a tough campaign. It happens. When it does, that does not diminish what happened before that.

EMD4ME
09-01-2015, 10:08 AM
I did not look at every Travers ever run, but I am 90% certain that AP's second half was the fastest in Travers history. If his mile time was not the fastest it was very close. After all that he was passed in the stretch, came back to put that rival away, then lost to a late closer who had nothing to do with the fast pace. Yet, you are not impressed. :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

WRONG MOSTPOST.

Frosted ran a 46.69 second half.

Keen Ice's 2nd half was 46.71

AP's 2nd half was 46.80

Last I checked, 46.69 & 46.71 are less than 46.80.

That is without factoring in ground loss....AND without factoring that the rail was made a better surface by the track maintenance crew.

The fact that AP jogged on a SLOW pace unpressured for 5F, also makes Keen Ice's performance more impressive.

The fact that he had to rally into that SLOW pace with his own FAST 2nd half and make up 5 lengths on the unwatered, wider part of the track and still came home .89 faster is more impressive than AP's battle with Frosted and "valiantly" :rolleyes: holding second.

Every one knows it's harder to catch a speed horse who spends zero energy in the first 40% part of the race. Keen Ice didn't just simply suck up. He rallied into the "fast part" of the race AND came home better, all the while losing ground and being in the unpreferred part of the track.

If we were discussing fastest first half, I would say AP was fried and had every excuse.

AP basically made this a 5F or 6F race (because he jogged his first 4F or maybe 5F) with a 3/4 length headstart on Frosted and a 5 length lead on Keen Ice, he had the very good rail in his favor and the track in his favor (SPEED) AND HE STILL LOST.

AND please, don't tell me that "of course Keen Ice's 2nd half was faster, all closer's second halfs are faster than the speed horse's"..............

Why?

Because this was not your quintessential route. It featured NO FLOW for 5F. It featured a slow first half mile.

It became a 5F or 6F sprint from the 5F pole or the 3/4 pole. AP had the advantage in terms of position, pace and preferred path. Keen Ice had to work to win.

Yes, they all came home slow, except for maybe Keen Ice but that's besides the point.

onefast99
09-01-2015, 10:11 AM
1) I am a HUGE FAN of the sport, not just a $500,000-$700,000 a year horseplayer.

How many non fans, sit and watch races from the 70's, 80's, 90's, 2000
s over and over again and CRY, YES CRY as they remember those races like they were yesterday?????

How many non fans, sit and watch trips and traps as they fell asleep every single night???

How many non fans, devote most of their free time to this game???

How many non fans, travel to 20-30 racetracks, BY CAR, just to see the track in person????

How many non fans, visit horse farms just to pet the horses and ride them??????

How many non fans, drive in their car and scream go left handed as they pass a stupid slow driver in the left lane????

How many non fans, wish it could have been possible that Ramon Dominguez could visit his mother as she suffers through 2 CRANIOTOMIES and brain damage to her brain??????

How many non fans, would try and get a job in the horse industry because they love the game and not for the salary involved?????

How many non fans, have watched the 1995 BCC 500,0000 times over and over and over and over and over and over again?????

How many non fans, have tried to find the 1 horse racing video game to the point where they went to every store in NYC to find one (back in the 90's and 2000's)??????????

How many non fans, drove to Penn National once a month, for 10 years, partially to smell the smell of horse shit ???????? (I LIVE 4 HOURS AWAY IN NY).

How many non fans, STAND UP FOR THE NATIONAL ANTHEM at 12:00, despite being at HOME AND NOT AT THE TRACK???

How many non fans, created lyrics for the National Anthem, that ARE ALL HORSE RACING WORDS????

How many non fans, tell their girlfriend, EMD4ME wants to go to the store for you now BUT Jerry Bailey says NO, NOT YET.

How many non fans, GO TO THE TRACK 156 times a year???????

How many non fans, run on the treadmill and when they get tired, tell themselves to, DIG DOWN DEEP????

How many non fans, time their walk from the car to the office and when it comes up in 44 seconds, say to themselves, I COULD WIN THE BC SPRINT????

How many non fans, google, closed racetracks and read up on closed tracks from yesteryear??????

How many non fans, wish they could've been at Shenandoah Downs, Bowie just once when the game was king????

How many non fans, try and walk a straight line on the sidewalk so they don't drift out and get DQ'd???

For people to claim, I am not a fan of this game, is a tragedy.

You want me to be blunt? I pay for the salaries of 10 FT employees at Aqueduct. How many of YOU can say that? I support this game with MY time, my love for it, my churning and all because I state the obvious to an intelligent professional horseplayer's eye, I get attacked?

2) Just because I critique a horse's trips and his ability with a microscope does not make me classless. He is NOT a great horse in my eyes.

3) I'll say it point blank and I've detailed why since prior to his Derby, after his Derby win, before his Preakness, after his Preakness, before his Belmont and after his Belmont.

His Triple Crown achievement is one of the weakest accomplishments that I have ever seen. He is over rated, period.

It's not his fault his competition in each race either was 1) weak or 2) lost all shot due to racing luck BUT

Overall, he was one lucky horse in each of his 3 Triple Crown wins. I have detailed why, with a pin point laser. If you disagree, no problem.

BUT DON'T EVER, QUESTION ME BEING A FAN OF THIS GAME.
How many times have you paid the salary of those NYRA workers by winning a race because you got lucky? You have a great passion for this game, no doubt, but please stop the "I'm the greatest show on earth" routine, thanks.

classhandicapper
09-01-2015, 10:13 AM
You may be confidant but that doesn't make you right. I just watched the race again and Denman makes no reference to any problems the mare may have had other than that she was slow into stride (as always) while describing the pace as "very solid early".

Zenyatta was almost always a tad slow out of the gate and then slow to get into stride. But if you watch the race CAREFULLY, you will see that she got squeezed at the start and started climbing briefly soon after as she was getting hit with kickback (something she hadn't experienced in her previous 2 starts on dirt). As she got progressively more distanced, Smith "used" her to get back into contact with the field near the first turn and she mostly had a good trip after that. In some post race commentary, Smith flat out said she didn't like the kickback. He didn't use that as an excuse. It was just an observation. He actually blamed himself for the ride - though I thought he gave her a good ride. Having a negative reaction to kickback is not an unusual reaction for a horse not experienced with it. Given the margin, IMO it almost certainly was the difference. She briefly dropped even further back than she would have and then had to be used to get back in it.

Tom
09-01-2015, 10:18 AM
The Travers was the 11th race, you know this, right? :rolleyes:

EMD4ME
09-01-2015, 10:26 AM
EMD4ME,

The problem is not with your analysis of the Travers (though I disagree with you on some of the details). It's that you are throwing out an entire career of domination and concluding that a single subpar effort justifies diminishing the performances before that.

The horse that lost the Travers was not the same horse that won the Haskell or Triple Crown. We may never get to see that same horse. He may not run again. And even if he does, he may already be over the the top and unable to move back forward and develop as he would have. It's not that unusual for horses to wear down after a tough campaign. It happens. When it does, that does not diminish what happened before that.

It is my contention, that this horse has had cupcake trips in all but 2 of his races. (Exclude his maiden loss from all talking points).

He has dominated his competition, which has made them look totally inferior, yes, I give that.

However, in the 2 races where he faced a modicum of stress, NOT REAL stress, a pinch of stress, he no longer was the dominant force.

His Derby was not amazing to me. He had a fantastic post. He was lucky he wasn't accordioned out. When have you ever seen a derby run 321????

A 3 speed number in the derby???

That happened because 10 horses were accordioned into trip death.

He had a nice 3 wide trip, stalking two horses that are no superstars by any means. He was all out in pedestrian closing time to outslow firing line. (Plus he needed to tap firing line at the 1/16 to seel the deal).

His 2 races with any stress, any challenge, exposed him.

They were not bounces. They were not "he wasn't on his A game today". Those 2 races are the 2 races to judge him on.

I don't care what a horse does when he has inferior competition or a perfect trip. To me, those are his ceiling races. Can't do better than that.

I care to see what a horse does when tested.

To me, in both races where he faced and I can't stress the following words enough, A TIDBIT of stress, he wasn't the same.

It boggles my mind what would happen if he actually had any real adversity to overcome. He would be off the board.

EMD4ME
09-01-2015, 10:35 AM
How many times have you paid the salary of those NYRA workers by winning a race because you got lucky? You have a great passion for this game, no doubt, but please stop the "I'm the greatest show on earth" routine, thanks.

To answer your question, I guess I've been getting lucky for about 25 years.

I find your last statement extremely insulting.

You attack me, I defend. What's the matter bully? You don't like being pushed back with facts?

I could care less about being the greatest show on earth or whatever that is supposed to mean.

All I care about is discussing our passion, this game.

You want to disagree, that's great. Don't forget we are betting against eachother and I prefer everyone disagree with me. But don't attack me personally.

Besides telling grits what I think of her, after her personally insulting me 4 or 5 times, I NEVER EVER say anything about any one on here. So, I ask of you to be respectful in return.

EMD4ME
09-01-2015, 10:36 AM
The Travers was the 11th race, you know this, right? :rolleyes:

:lol: :lol: :lol:

Yup. I'm glad we see it different. More value for you or I.

onefast99
09-01-2015, 10:38 AM
To answer your question, I guess I've been getting lucky for about 25 years.

I find your last statement extremely insulting.

You attack me, I defend. What's the matter bully? You don't like being pushed back with facts?

I could care less about being the greatest show on earth or whatever that is supposed to mean.

All I care about is discussing our passion, this game.

You want to disagree, that's great. Don't forget we are betting against eachother and I prefer everyone disagree with me. But don't attack me personally.

Besides telling grits what I think of her, after her personally insulting me 4 or 5 times, I NEVER EVER say anything about any one on here. So, I ask of you to be respectful in return.
Just tone it down a bit! Enjoy...

EMD4ME
09-01-2015, 10:39 AM
Zenyatta was almost always a tad slow out of the gate and then slow to get into stride. But if you watch the race CAREFULLY, you will see that she got squeezed at the start and started climbing briefly soon after as she was getting hit with kickback (something she hadn't experienced in her previous 2 starts on dirt). As she got progressively more distanced, Smith "used" her to get back into contact with the field near the first turn and she mostly had a good trip after that. In some post race commentary, Smith flat out said she didn't like the kickback. He didn't use that as an excuse. It was just an observation. He actually blamed himself for the ride - though I thought he gave her a good ride. Having a negative reaction to kickback is not an unusual reaction for a horse not experienced with it. Given the margin, IMO it almost certainly was the difference. She briefly dropped even further back than she would have and then had to be used to get back in it.

Who's fault is that? The trainer for not exposing more her to more dirt racing, that's who.

They chose to protect her, that's one of the repurcussions of protecting her on polytrack for most of her starts.

As for the grand scheme of things, (who was better?) if a horse can't handle kickback or can't handle dirt, do they really deserve to win the biggest race of the year?

EMD4ME
09-01-2015, 10:40 AM
Just tone it down a bit! Enjoy...

You too.......No hard feelings :)

classhandicapper
09-01-2015, 11:01 AM
It is my contention, that this horse has had cupcake trips in all but 2 of his races. (Exclude his maiden loss from all talking points).

He has dominated his competition, which has made them look totally inferior, yes, I give that.

However, in the 2 races where he faced a modicum of stress, NOT REAL stress, a pinch of stress, he no longer was the dominant force.

His Derby was not amazing to me. He had a fantastic post. He was lucky he wasn't accordioned out. When have you ever seen a derby run 321????

A 3 speed number in the derby???

That happened because 10 horses were accordioned into trip death.

He had a nice 3 wide trip, stalking two horses that are no superstars by any means. He was all out in pedestrian closing time to outslow firing line. (Plus he needed to tap firing line at the 1/16 to seel the deal).

His 2 races with any stress, any challenge, exposed him.

They were not bounces. They were not "he wasn't on his A game today". Those 2 races are the 2 races to judge him on.

I don't care what a horse does when he has inferior competition or a perfect trip. To me, those are his ceiling races. Can't do better than that.

I care to see what a horse does when tested.

To me, in both races where he faced and I can't stress the following words enough, A TIDBIT of stress, he wasn't the same.

It boggles my mind what would happen if he actually had any real adversity to overcome. He would be off the board.

I agree that getting tested against the best horses and overcoming rough trips are what separate the champions from the wannabees. But IMO you are misdiagnosing the trips.

He lost a ton of ground against Dortmund and Firing Line. I still think they are the 2nd and 3rd best 3yos of this crop. Perhaps one or both will eventually make it back to full strength and demonstrate that, but we don't know. Was it a killer trip? No. But it was no cakewalk spotting that much ground against those 2 even if the paths off the rail were best that day.

In the Preakness, he set a very fast pace and put away all the chasers before drawing off in hand. It was a goofy race because of the slop, but it was NOT an easy trip cutting that pace. Look what happened to the chasers.

This horse has had only had a handful of races and had passed every test easily. If I thought the Travers trip was easy (it was not) or that he had given his best there and failed, I'd be hesitant about dismissing the loss. But the middle pace was hot, IMO he was not on the best part of the track, and IMO that was not the same horse we saw at Monmouth.

So IMO, you dismiss it, you look at the total body of work, and draw a conclusion.

IMO, it's impossible to put him up there with Slew, Affirmed, Bid, Forego etc... because they did so much more over time, but there is no reason to go to an extreme in the other direction. He's already done way more than all but of handful of horses.

EMD4ME
09-01-2015, 11:16 AM
I agree that getting tested against the best horses and overcoming rough trips are what separates the champions from the wannabees. But IMO you are misdiagnosing the trips.

He lost a ton of ground against Dortmund and Firing Line. I still think they are the 2nd and 3rd best 3yos of this crop. Perhaps one or both will eventually make it back to full strength and demonstrate that, but we don't know. Was it a killer trip? No. But it was no cakewalk spotting that much ground against them even if the paths off the rail were best that day.

In the Preakness, he set a very fast pace and put away all the chasers before drawing off in hand. It was a goofy race because of the slop, but it was NOT an easy trip cutting that pace. Look what happened to the chasers.

This horse has had only had a handful of races and had passed every test easily. If I thought the Travers trip was easy (it was not) or that he had given his best there and failed, I'd be hesitant about dismissing the loss. But middle pace was hot, IMO he was not on the best part of the track, and IMO that was not the same horse we saw at Monmouth.

So IMO, you dismiss it, you look at the total body of work, and draw a conclusion.

IMO, it's impossible to put him up there with Slew, Affirmed, Bid, Forego etc... because they did so much more over time, but there is no reason to go to an extreme in the other direction. He's already done way more than all but of handful of horses.

So, is it safe to say that Cigar had brutal trips every time he stalked 3 wide off 2 inferior horses?

I would say no. A 3 wide stalk has always been one of the fairest trips and easiest trips to have off of 2 speeds. You decide when you want to go, so the stress level is less, especially when there isn't a horse sitting in the pocket waiting to angle out and pounce.

Yes, he technically traveled farther in the Derby vs. FL and D. But I don't see that as some sort of heroic overcoming of a bad trip.

Ask Frosted and 9 others how much ground they lost being accordioned to trip death under the stands the first time. Ask those same 10 horses how many lengths they lost on checks after the accordion happened. Ask them how much ground they lost on the 2 turns, IMHO.

His Preakness was a joke, come on. D was pulled out of his way right at the start. FL drowned in the slop as he stumbled in the 1st stride. The rest were totally inferior foes. If you told me PPS 34567 were running in an ALW race, I would believe you.

The Belmont was a joke as well. Materiality was sick and done. Frosted had every chance to take AP's path in the FIRST stride and he didn't (AP broke a hair slow). Any horse can go to the lead in a 12F race. Even a plodder could be hustled to go as the pace is so slow at that distance. No one went. All this talk of he brushed off the challengers like flies on the far turn is non sense. When a good horse gets a clear lead and jogs for the first 70% part of the race, any horse coming at him will need rocket boosters to get close as the leader will simply let out his/her reserves and maintain the advantage. Yes, he was best that day but best with the perfect trip.

All I kept asking for was show you're the best with some stress, with some adversity, with something to overcome.

In the 2 times he's mildly had that "stress" he barely came home in the Derby (very lucky there wasn't a horse who wasn't destroyed early to come suck him up) and he didn't have enough to complete the Travers.

As far as the rail not being the place to be. Please take an additional look at all the dirt races (pan and head on, with PP's in view) to see just how quick the track got for race 8 and then on and how the rail improved tremendously for those same races.

castaway01
09-01-2015, 12:14 PM
Really good post Class

Valuist
09-01-2015, 12:26 PM
Keen Ice was my key horse and I wheeled him 2nd in the Tri for a buck...I felt if he wins the best chance for a big pay day was to use him in the pk 3 with ALL-ALL-7 for a buck....hoping for a bomb of course but no such luck...

I figured if instead I wheeled him on top in the Tri for a buck and if AP got 2nd the tri would not be huge like a possible Pk 3 would be

I wanted to key on the top 2 jockeys at Saratoga...Irad or Javier and when I saw Javier was aboard Keen Ice that made my mind up as I liked Keen Ice in his previous races and here we were at Saratoga, distance and what better jockey than Javier on Keen Ice the closer.

But to bad for me having ALL-ALL in the first 2 legs of the Pk 3 had favorites win and not one bomb or even a long shot :(

EDIT I am having all kinds of trouble getting into my NY Rewards account but I just now did get in and see just over $200.00 in my account so that must be what the pick 3 paid for a buck

Nice call on Keen Ice. But you really picked the wrong pool. You singled him at a cost of $72 and got back about $220. A $72 win bet would've returned over $1,150. We are conditioned to believe that multi race bets are ALWAYS better, because there's one takeout spread out over 3 races. This is definitely one instance where that was not the case.

Tom
09-01-2015, 12:28 PM
I would say no. A 3 wide stalk has always been one of the fairest trips and easiest trips to have off of 2 speeds.

Not around the clubhouse turn.

OntheRail
09-01-2015, 12:34 PM
1) I am a HUGE FAN of the sport, not just a $500,000-$700,000 a year horseplayer.

How many non fans, sit and watch races from the 70's, 80's, 90's, 2000
s over and over again and CRY, YES CRY as they remember those races like they were yesterday?????

How many non fans, sit and watch trips and traps as they fell asleep every single night???

How many non fans, devote most of their free time to this game???

How many non fans, travel to 20-30 racetracks, BY CAR, just to see the track in person????

How many non fans, visit horse farms just to pet the horses and ride them??????

How many non fans, drive in their car and scream go left handed as they pass a stupid slow driver in the left lane????

How many non fans, wish it could have been possible that Ramon Dominguez could visit his mother as she suffers through 2 CRANIOTOMIES and brain damage to her brain??????

How many non fans, would try and get a job in the horse industry because they love the game and not for the salary involved?????

How many non fans, have watched the 1995 BCC 500,0000 times over and over and over and over and over and over again?????

How many non fans, have tried to find the 1 horse racing video game to the point where they went to every store in NYC to find one (back in the 90's and 2000's)??????????

How many non fans, drove to Penn National once a month, for 10 years, partially to smell the smell of horse shit ???????? (I LIVE 4 HOURS AWAY IN NY).

How many non fans, STAND UP FOR THE NATIONAL ANTHEM at 12:00, despite being at HOME AND NOT AT THE TRACK???

How many non fans, created lyrics for the National Anthem, that ARE ALL HORSE RACING WORDS????

How many non fans, tell their girlfriend, EMD4ME wants to go to the store for you now BUT Jerry Bailey says NO, NOT YET.

How many non fans, GO TO THE TRACK 156 times a year???????

How many non fans, run on the treadmill and when they get tired, tell themselves to, DIG DOWN DEEP????

How many non fans, time their walk from the car to the office and when it comes up in 44 seconds, say to themselves, I COULD WIN THE BC SPRINT????

How many non fans, google, closed racetracks and read up on closed tracks from yesteryear??????

How many non fans, wish they could've been at Shenandoah Downs, Bowie just once when the game was king????

How many non fans, try and walk a straight line on the sidewalk so they don't drift out and get DQ'd???

For people to claim, I am not a fan of this game, is a tragedy.

You want me to be blunt? I pay for the salaries of 10 FT employees at Aqueduct. How many of YOU can say that? I support this game with MY time, my love for it, my churning and all because I state the obvious to an intelligent professional horseplayer's eye, I get attacked?

2) Just because I critique a horse's trips and his ability with a microscope does not make me classless. He is NOT a great horse in my eyes.

3) I'll say it point blank and I've detailed why since prior to his Derby, after his Derby win, before his Preakness, after his Preakness, before his Belmont and after his Belmont.

His Triple Crown achievement is one of the weakest accomplishments that I have ever seen. He is over rated, period.

It's not his fault his competition in each race either was 1) weak or 2) lost all shot due to racing luck BUT

Overall, he was one lucky horse in each of his 3 Triple Crown wins. I have detailed why, with a pin point laser. If you disagree, no problem.

BUT DON'T EVER, QUESTION ME BEING A FAN OF THIS GAME.

Ok Buddy if you say your a fan... your a fan ( couple of bent blades ) ... but also a.

http://mentalfloss.com/sites/default/legacy/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/400jackass.jpg

Enjoy your day... ;)

EMD4ME
09-01-2015, 12:42 PM
Ok Buddy if you say your a fan... your a fan ( couple of bent blades ) ... but also a.

http://mentalfloss.com/sites/default/legacy/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/400jackass.jpg

Enjoy your day... ;)


Is that what Blame saw when he dug down to deep to preserve his win and pull away on the gallop out :lol: :lol: :lol:

mostpost
09-01-2015, 01:07 PM
You need to clarify your comment because Keen Ice ran a faster second half mile than American Pharoah by about 0.1 seconds. And last year V. E. Day ran his second half in :45.49 compared to American Pharoah's :46.78. Also, in his Travers Honest Pleasure got a mile in 1:35 flat and still won in 2:00.1.
I don't know how you arrive at that 45.49 figure because my calculations say VE Day ran his second half in 47.54.

Honest Pleasure was a speed horse loose on the lead. American Pharoah was lapped on the entire race. And American Pharoah's mile time was only eight hundredths of a second slower than Honest Pleasure's. In fact AP's time may have been faster since in 1978 they timed in fifths of a second.

Regardless of the raw times (which are generally a mistake to quote anyway because of track variability), this year's Travers was rated 4 to 5 points below the 25-year average by both Equibase and Beyer. My own figures show a similar result. The Racing Post, which is an overall performance rating and not strictly a speed figure and has been very generous to American Pharoah assigning him a 131 in the Haskell, rated his Travers performance his poorest of any since March.
I am aware of track variability. I am also aware that different people come up with different speed figures for the same race and many here criticize Beyer or whoever on a frequent basis. Saying that this years Travers was 4 to 5 points slower than the 25 year average is a guess. I know that on raw time, this years running was the third fastest in that span.

That the Racing Post has been very generous to American Pharoah is your opinion, nothing more.

I guess when someone is emotionally connected to a horse, objectivity takes a back seat.
I am not as emotionally connected to AP as you think. Not as connected as I was to California Chrome, and certainly not as emotionally connected as EMD4ME is to tearing him down.

Steve R
09-01-2015, 01:28 PM
Maybe there is something in this data that can help put American Pharoah in perspective. The data include all the 10f+ dirt races for the last four TC winners plus Spectacular Bid. He is included because I believe he is the best we've seen since Secretariat. The data are presented in the following format:

Race, 6f time, Last 1/4 time, Finish, Trk Cond
Average 6f time, Average Last 1/4 time

American Pharoah:
Travers, 1:11.48, :26.64, 2 x 3/4, fst
Belmont, 1:13.41, :24.32, 1, fst
Preakness, 1:11.42, :26.76, 1, sy
Derby, 1:11.59, :26.52, 1, fst
Average, 1:11.98, :26.06

Affirmed:
JCGC, 1:13.20, 25.00, 1, fst
Woodward, 1:11.80, :25.40, 1, fst
Santa Anita H, 1:10.20, :24.40, 1, fst
Strub, 1:10.80, :24.40, 1, gd
JCGC, 1:10.80, :26.15, 5 x 18 3/4, sy (saddle slipped)
Travers, 1:11.60, :25.20, 1, fst
Belmont, 1:14.00, :25.20, 1, fst
Derby, 1:10.80, :24.40, 1, fst
Average, 1:11.65, :25.02

Seattle Slew:
JCGC, 1:09.40, :25.40, 2 x nose, sy
Woodward, 1:10.80, :24.80, 1, fst
Swaps, 1:10.40, :26.00, 4 x 16, fst (never got in it)
Belmont, 1:14.00, :25.80, 1, my
Preakness, 1:09.90, :25.42, 1, fst
Derby, 1:10.60, :26.20, 1, fst
Average, 1:10.85, :25.60

Secretariat:
Woodward, 1:13.40, :24.60, 2 x 4 1/2, sy
Belmont, 1:09.80, :25.00, 1, fst
Preakness, 1:11.40, :23.83, 1, fst
Derby, 1:11.80, :23.20, 1, fst
Average, 1:11.55, :24.16

Spectacular Bid:
Woodward, 1:14.20, :24.20, 1, fst (walkover)
Santa Anita H, 1:12.40, :23.80, 1, sy
Strub, 1:08.40, :25.00, 1, fst
Meadowlands Cup, 1:12.00, :24.80
JCGC, 1:13.40, :25.05, 2 x 3/4, fst
Belmont, 1:11.20, :26.80, 3 x 3 1/2, fst
Preakness, 1:10.6, :24.76, 1, gd
Derby, 1:12.4, :24.80, 1, fst
Average, 1:11.83, :24.90

Seriously? Regardless of the admirable accomplishment of winning the TC, does he really belong in a discussion with this group at this stage of his career?

Steve R
09-01-2015, 02:01 PM
Saying that this years Travers was 4 to 5 points slower than the 25 year average is a guess.
It's not a guess at all. The historical Equibase figures are available online and the historical Beyer figures are available in the American Racing Manual.

That the Racing Post has been very generous to American Pharoah is your opinion, nothing more.
Not really. The Racing Post assigned him a 129 for the Belmont which is higher than any figure ever achieved by Zenyatta and exceeded only once in Wise Dan's entire career when he earned a 130 in the 2013 Woodbine Mile. Meanwhile, Ragozin gave the Belmont a 4-, Equibase gave it a 112 (lower than Jazil, Editor's Note, Victory Gallop et al) and Beyer gave it a 105 (significantly lower than Go and Go, Hansel, Lemon Drop Kid et al). I'd consider that quite generous.

classhandicapper
09-01-2015, 02:20 PM
High quality speed figures were a giant leap for handicappers and remain an essential tool for handicapping today, but IMO they are having an absolutely destructive impact on the discussion of the historical record.

We have the ALW horses of today running faster than Secretariat on one set of figures.

We have the ALW horses of the 70s running faster than American Pharoah on another set.

We have ALW horses of today running approximately the same as those of the 70s on another set.

And those are the figures from guys that are extremely bright and competent with a long record of success in the industry. That doesn't even count the bad figures.

Everyone should be laughing. :lol:

EMD4ME
09-01-2015, 02:28 PM
I am not as emotionally connected to AP as you think. Not as connected as I was to California Chrome, and certainly not as emotionally connected as EMD4ME is to tearing him down.

Was I tearing him down after his Haskell ? Nope.

I was fair but stuck to what I saw overall.

1) I said his Haskell was his best race (indirectly knocking all of his TC races).

2) I said let's see what happens when he faces the slightest bit of pressure/a challenge/some stress.....

Viola, he faces a modicum of stress and...loses and...people saying he didn't bring his A game.

IMHO, he did bring his A game. He just didn't receive a cup cake stress free trip and couldn't run a complete race through the minor adversity.

If he come to KEE and beats those older horses fair and square, I deserve to be whip lashed by all of you. Until then, his 2 races with a smidgen of stress are the true measures of his ability it in my eyes.

nijinski
09-01-2015, 02:42 PM
Track surface is different . much pressure came into the hands of those that engineer the dirt surface after the losses of Barbaro and Eight Belles and there is more layer of dirt mixture that they are running on . therefore how do you compare ? We finally have a TC winner , whether some like it or not , he has legendary status now , I'm thrilled to have witnessed that and so are many others!

gfnut
09-01-2015, 03:07 PM
Did Cigar complain in the Dubai World Cup when he was surrounded by a phalanx of horses, turned them all away AND then had to deal with a rallying SOUL OF THE MATTER? No, he dug his hooves in and SAID NO WAY YOU'RE GOING BY ME.



Cigar was 5 years old when he ran in Dubai. You are comparing what Cigar did as a 5 year to what AP can do at 3. Cigar was not much of a race horse at the age of 3 or 4.

Steve R
09-01-2015, 03:13 PM
High quality speed figures were a giant leap for handicappers and remain an essential tool for handicapping today, but IMO they are having an absolutely destructive impact on the discussion of the historical record.

We have the ALW horses of today running faster than Secretariat on one set of figures.

We have the ALW horses of the 70s running faster than American Pharoah on another set.

We have ALW horses of today running approximately the same as those of the 70s on another set.

And those are the figures from guys that are extremely bright and competent with a long record of success in the industry. That doesn't even count the bad figures.

Everyone should be laughing. :lol:
Can you please cite the sources for your assertions? The only figure maker I am aware of that made claims today's horses are faster is Len Friedman. All the other major figure makers show a similar on average decline in their numbers over the last few decades.

EMD4ME
09-01-2015, 03:19 PM
Cigar was 5 years old when he ran in Dubai. You are comparing what Cigar did as a 5 year to what AP can do at 3. Cigar was not much of a race horse at the age of 3 or 4.

Not Cigar's fault they kept running him on Turf instead of Dirt.

So, no 3 year olds are capable of running races where they have any adversity and still win nicely ? (That was my main point.....) I picked Cigar as a few people I've spoken to thought AP was better than Cigar.

whodoyoulike
09-01-2015, 03:51 PM
1) I am a HUGE FAN of the sport, ...

BUT DON'T EVER, QUESTION ME BEING A FAN OF THIS GAME.

I've never questioned your passion for the game but, I suspect you tend to use hyperbole.

The game needs passionate fans within limits.

RXB
09-01-2015, 03:53 PM
Can you please cite the sources for your assertions? The only figure maker I am aware of that made claims today's horses are faster is Len Friedman. All the other major figure makers show a similar on average decline in their numbers over the last few decades.

Jerry Brown is much more of a "they're faster now" guy than Len Friedman is.

Steve R
09-01-2015, 05:25 PM
Jerry Brown is much more of a "they're faster now" guy than Len Friedman is.
Any idea how his figs compare with the Ragozin 4-, 6", 4- for AP's TC? Apparently Ragozin thinks the colt is on the slow side compared to a lot of recent TC race winners.

RXB
09-01-2015, 05:39 PM
Any idea how his figs compare with the Ragozin 4-, 6", 4- for AP's TC? Apparently Ragozin thinks the colt is on the slow side compared to a lot of recent TC race winners.

Much faster on T-Graph. -3, -0.5, -0.5.

Here are links to T-Graph's archived figure page and to the figures for American Pharoah and other Belmont Stakes runners, through the Belmont Stakes.

https://www.thorograph.com/archive.php

https://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/bel2015.pdf

alhattab
09-01-2015, 10:28 PM
To answer your question, I guess I've been getting lucky for about 25 years.

I find your last statement extremely insulting.

You attack me, I defend. What's the matter bully? You don't like being pushed back with facts?

I could care less about being the greatest show on earth or whatever that is supposed to mean.

All I care about is discussing our passion, this game.

You want to disagree, that's great. Don't forget we are betting against eachother and I prefer everyone disagree with me. But don't attack me personally.

Besides telling grits what I think of her, after her personally insulting me 4 or 5 times, I NEVER EVER say anything about any one on here. So, I ask of you to be respectful in return.

So, how about those Mets!

Grits
09-02-2015, 12:49 AM
Besides telling grits what I think of her

And like I care...

After Saturday's display, I'm sorry, your cred is questionable. :lol:

EMD4ME
09-02-2015, 01:51 AM
And like I care...

After Saturday's display, I'm sorry, your cred is questionable. :lol:

I'll take the high road Grits but I will say this:

My feelings on AP have been out there since his before his Derby win, after his Derby win, before his Preakness, after his Preakness, before his Belmont, after his Belmont and after CJ asked, I commented on his Haskell.

You want to verify how legit I am, PM TLG, ask him how well known EMD4ME is at NYRA tracks and how respected I am for many reasons.

I'm not on here to compete in some peeing contest, just to talk horses. I would appreciate it if you just stay away from me.

rastajenk
09-02-2015, 07:27 AM
My feelings on AP have been out there since his before his Derby win, after his Derby win, before his Preakness, after his Preakness, before his Belmont, after his Belmont and after CJ asked, I commented on his Haskell. Ad nauseum
I'm not on here to compete in some peeing contest, just to talk horses. The evidence suggests otherwise.

EMD4ME
09-02-2015, 09:00 AM
At the risk of sounding naive, what does the evidence suggest?

Grits
09-02-2015, 09:57 AM
I'll take the high road Grits but I will say this:

You taking the high road is about as likely as hell freezing over.

My feelings on AP have been out there since his before his Derby win, after his Derby win, before his Preakness, after his Preakness, before his Belmont, after his Belmont and after CJ asked, I commented on his Haskell.

As Rastajenk noted, ad nauseum.

You want to verify how legit I am, PM TLG, ask him how well known EMD4ME is at NYRA tracks and how respected I am for many reasons.

Right. The same respect that you show NYRA jockeys and anyone else you feel like degrading on the track, in racetrack paddocks, in traffic, or anywhere else simply because you're this kind of person.

I'm not on here to compete in some peeing contest,

This is the majority of what you do.

I got home last night, but during the two weeks I was in Saratoga, on three different occasions, I was asked about Pace Advantage and my participation here at the site.

A paraphrase of one of the conversations. This was from someone who has worked in the industry for many years.

"I read Pace Advantage, but have no desire to comment there. Just no way I'd involve myself in the chaos, the pissing matches. And the place is known for it. Those guys are some of the most rude, the most disrespectful, hate filled individuals on the internet. So much of what is written there desolves into ranting arguments. .... Who is the guy, EMDforme? Does this guy own the site? Does he like anyone or anything about the sport? Has he ever been on, or close to a horse in his life? .... Have any of these guys?"

I was asked who the moderators were. I answered the question. Then I was told, "I wouldn't have their job".

This person spoke of threads...

All I could say? "I know. But I cannot do anything about these things, keep in mind--free speech". I told him I wasn't well liked here, and one day my body may be found in a stall on the Saratoga backside..

He spoke of three posters that he enjoyed reading, feeling each informative, thoughtful, and engaging. The posters were Classhandicapper, Pandy, and Thaskalos. "Those guys add a lot to the place."

....I've tried to bring something to PA, but like some others, I'm tired of what has happened here. Men like you EMDforme are part of the problem. You know nothing about the word--respect. Yet, you're ranting and petulant like a child because you're "not shown" it. You're all about yourself with your chest pounding. These other men don't care...who knows you or how much you put through a window.

Finally, two things for you. (1) Don't ever call me dear again. I've got boots your age. (2) Keep my name out of your comments; put me on ignore.

For all others, I apologize for sharing the conversation. To Mike, especially as some of this has not been his fault. He can't be here 24-7. Still, I've cared about the site and there are issues that are causing others not to post, choosing not to become involved. There are people leaving because of the lack of respect.

I'm one of the problems, here, because I can't handle the hatred heaped on jockeys, racecallers, etc. I can't handle the lack of respect or civility.

You gentlemen have a good.. rest of the week. This final one of Saratoga.

EMD4ME
09-02-2015, 10:37 AM
You taking the high road is about as likely as hell freezing over.



As Rastajenk noted, ad nauseum.



Right. The same respect that you show NYRA jockeys and anyone else you feel like degrading on the track, in racetrack paddocks, in traffic, or anywhere else simply because you're this kind of person.



This is the majority of what you do.

I got home last night, but during the two weeks I was in Saratoga, on three different occasions, I was asked about Pace Advantage and my participation here at the site.

A paraphrase of one of the conversations. This was from someone who has worked in the industry for many years.

"I read Pace Advantage, but have no desire to comment there. Just no way I'd involve myself in the chaos, the pissing matches. And the place is known for it. Those guys are some of the most rude, the most disrespectful, hate filled individuals on the internet. So much of what is written there desolves into ranting arguments. .... Who is the guy, EMDforme? Does this guy own the site? Does he like anyone or anything about the sport? Has he ever been on, or close to a horse in his life? .... Have any of these guys?"

I was asked who the moderators were. I answered the question. Then I was told, "I wouldn't have their job".

This person spoke of threads...

All I could say? "I know. But I cannot do anything about these things, keep in mind--free speech". I told him I wasn't well liked here, and one day my body may be found in a stall on the Saratoga backside..

He spoke of three posters that he enjoyed reading, feeling each informative, thoughtful, and engaging. The posters were Classhandicapper, Pandy, and Thaskalos. "Those guys add a lot to the place."

....I've tried to bring something to PA, but like some others, I'm tired of what has happened here. Men like you EMDforme are part of the problem. You know nothing about the word--respect. Yet, you're ranting and petulant like a child because you're "not shown" it. You're all about yourself with your chest pounding. These other men don't care...who knows you or how much you put through a window.

Finally, two things for you. (1) Don't ever call me dear again. I've got boots your age. (2) Keep my name out of your comments; put me on ignore.

For all others, I apologize for sharing the conversation. To Mike, especially as some of this has not been his fault. He can't be here 24-7. Still, I've cared about the site and there are issues that are causing others not to post, choosing not to become involved. There are people leaving because of the lack of respect.

I'm one of the problems, here, because I can't handle the hatred heaped on jockeys, racecallers, etc. I can't handle the lack of respect or civility.

You gentlemen have a good.. rest of the week. This final one of Saratoga.

Now you're quoting yourself and having imaginary conversations Grits?

I'll PM you, as your personal vandetta against me should be discussed one on one, not on this thread. Don't know what your projecting, what your motivation is but I'd be more than willing to discuss your issues in a PM.

Sincerely,

EMD4ME

onefast99
09-02-2015, 01:20 PM
So, how about those Mets!
Out of context....sorry! I'm at MP Sunday you going?

Grits
09-02-2015, 01:30 PM
Now you're quoting yourself and having imaginary conversations Grits?

I'll PM you, as your personal vandetta against me should be discussed one on one, not on this thread. Don't know what your projecting, what your motivation is but I'd be more than willing to discuss your issues in a PM.

Sincerely,

EMD4ME

Didn't have to make up a thing. This person has homes in Florida and New York. Other conversations came from one who lives in New York, one in Toronto. They each know New York racing as well as you do.. and have been involved longer.

I deleted your message without reading as I have no interest in more blather. You, and others whose communication and social skills are poor and so volatile, are harming this website.

Stillriledup
09-02-2015, 01:34 PM
You taking the high road is about as likely as hell freezing over.



As Rastajenk noted, ad nauseum.



Right. The same respect that you show NYRA jockeys and anyone else you feel like degrading on the track, in racetrack paddocks, in traffic, or anywhere else simply because you're this kind of person.



This is the majority of what you do.

I got home last night, but during the two weeks I was in Saratoga, on three different occasions, I was asked about Pace Advantage and my participation here at the site.

A paraphrase of one of the conversations. This was from someone who has worked in the industry for many years.

"I read Pace Advantage, but have no desire to comment there. Just no way I'd involve myself in the chaos, the pissing matches. And the place is known for it. Those guys are some of the most rude, the most disrespectful, hate filled individuals on the internet. So much of what is written there desolves into ranting arguments. .... Who is the guy, EMDforme? Does this guy own the site? Does he like anyone or anything about the sport? Has he ever been on, or close to a horse in his life? .... Have any of these guys?"

I was asked who the moderators were. I answered the question. Then I was told, "I wouldn't have their job".

This person spoke of threads...

All I could say? "I know. But I cannot do anything about these things, keep in mind--free speech". I told him I wasn't well liked here, and one day my body may be found in a stall on the Saratoga backside..

He spoke of three posters that he enjoyed reading, feeling each informative, thoughtful, and engaging. The posters were Classhandicapper, Pandy, and Thaskalos. "Those guys add a lot to the place."

....I've tried to bring something to PA, but like some others, I'm tired of what has happened here. Men like you EMDforme are part of the problem. You know nothing about the word--respect. Yet, you're ranting and petulant like a child because you're "not shown" it. You're all about yourself with your chest pounding. These other men don't care...who knows you or how much you put through a window.

Finally, two things for you. (1) Don't ever call me dear again. I've got boots your age. (2) Keep my name out of your comments; put me on ignore.

For all others, I apologize for sharing the conversation. To Mike, especially as some of this has not been his fault. He can't be here 24-7. Still, I've cared about the site and there are issues that are causing others not to post, choosing not to become involved. There are people leaving because of the lack of respect.

I'm one of the problems, here, because I can't handle the hatred heaped on jockeys, racecallers, etc. I can't handle the lack of respect or civility.

You gentlemen have a good.. rest of the week. This final one of Saratoga.


But isn't this type of post by you part of the chaos your industry insider speaks of? If you don't like EDM why not put HIM on ignore and go about your day?

One thing about this site and your 'insider' I would imagine that he or she is just intimidated, there's no chaos here, just a Bunch of very passionate players with big egos engaging in spirited debate, there's nothing wrong with this place.

Grits
09-02-2015, 01:47 PM
One thing about this site and your 'insider' I would imagine that he or she is just intimidated, there's no chaos here, just a Bunch of very passionate players with big egos engaging in spirited debate, there's nothing wrong with this place.

SRU, your imagination is wrong. People who've worked in this industry so many years aren't intimidated by meltdowns and malcontent. Wisely, they refuse to be a part of it. ;)