My Travers Line

[PaceAdvantage]

You guys are gonna be all over me for this one... :lol:

(Fair Line | Value Line)

:2: American Pharoah (3-1 | 4-1)
:7: Keen Ice (3-1 | 4-1)
:6: Frosted (9-2 | 6-1)
:4: Texas Red (9-1 | 12-1)
:1: Upstart (10-1 | 13-1)

Yeah, I guess I have Keen Ice and AP as equals... :lol: :lol: :lol:

This is a very interesting race. It reminds me a lot of the Belmont Stakes pace setup. American Pharoah has a MONSTROUS edge in the early speed department. He should get the EASIEST of leads. NOBODY should be able to touch him early. He should WALK early, as easy as he pleases, just like the Belmont.

Much to EMD4ME's chagrin, NOBODY is going to be able to test AP early...it's just not possible, and anyone that thinks it will happen is delusional. AP is so superior early to this field, it's remarkable. (I know, a guy who has Keen Ice and AP ranked equal shouldn't be calling anyone delusional... :lol: )

With that being said, I hear Saratoga is a bit of a closer's track this year...Keen Ice is the best closer in a field packed with closers, which is the main reason why I have him ranked so highly.

Keen Ice is my main play here...and maybe Upstart if his odds hold to his morning line...

Given all things equal, American Pharoah should DOMINATE this field start to finish, so I expect to lose again while betting against this horse. I haven't seen such a dominant early pace scenario since the Belmont Stakes, and this one is even MORE SO. It's scary how TimeFormUS has this race so much in AP's pocket early on...if Espinoza doesn't screw up and AP doesn't go out there rank as the devil, he can't lose.

BUT, if this track does come up as favoring closers, it could get very messy for AP down the stretch...like I said, an interesting race at a mile and a quarter.

[Stillriledup]

Good write up, it's not against religious law to bet against AP, plenty of smart bettors will be taking the shot against him. In this new age of simulcasting, it's pretty easy to find a wager that's going to pay 2.40 or 2.60, why take that short price on a horse who has done a lot of shipping as well as never having raced or trained over this track (and a jock unfamiliar w the track who hasn't accepted even one mount on the undercard).

2.60 is 2.60'whether it's AP to win the travers or a show bet at Charlesclown on a 5k claimer.

[lamboguy]

looking strictly at pace i have AMERICAN PHAROAH as a 9/5 shot. throwing in the other mixture of things that i add in drops this horse to 24 cents to the dollar or payoff $2.48 even in this good a field.

[PICSIX]

The only way this horse loses, he's struck in the gate by lightning.....you like the odds on lightning :confused: :confused: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Think that's from, Let It Ride

[Pick 'em Charlie]

Anyway one looks at the race, AP has it -- be it speed, class, or pace. All the numbers are his.

[PaceAdvantage]

I see a horse that could have an entire cavalry barreling towards him down the stretch if the track is biased AGAINST speed later today...that's the way I look at it, and that's the angle I'm taking to bet against AP, once again.

Remember, I only need a 9/2 shot to make this venture profitable, as I've only bet against AP 4 times this year... :lol:

Betting against AP isn't as crazy as some make it sound.

[Tor Ekman]

I see a horse that could have an entire cavalry barreling towards him down the stretch if the track is biased AGAINST speed later today...that's the way I look at it, and that's the angle I'm taking to bet against AP, once again.

Remember, I only need a 9/2 shot to make this venture profitable, as I've only bet against AP 4 times this year... :lol:

Betting against AP isn't as crazy as some make it sound.

Agree . . . and hearing the following from Larry Collmus (in stunned voice) would be music to my ears:
AND AMERICAN PHAROAH DOES NOT WANT TO GO ON!!! IT'LL BE THESE TWO, [________________] AND [_______________] (fill in the blanks) WHO WILL BATTLE IT OUT TO THE WIRE WITH KEEN ICE COMING FAST ON THE OUTSIDE!!!

Now to figure out how to fill in the blanks

[ronsmac]

You guys are gonna be all over me for this one... :lol:

(Fair Line | Value Line)

:2: American Pharoah (3-1 | 4-1)
:7: Keen Ice (3-1 | 4-1)
:6: Frosted (9-2 | 6-1)
:4: Texas Red (9-1 | 12-1)
:1: Upstart (10-1 | 13-1)

Yeah, I guess I have Keen Ice and AP as equals... :lol: :lol: :lol:

This is a very interesting race. It reminds me a lot of the Belmont Stakes pace setup. American Pharoah has a MONSTROUS edge in the early speed department. He should get the EASIEST of leads. NOBODY should be able to touch him early. He should WALK early, as easy as he pleases, just like the Belmont.

Much to EMD4ME's chagrin, NOBODY is going to be able to test AP early...it's just not possible, and anyone that thinks it will happen is delusional. AP is so superior early to this field, it's remarkable. (I know, a guy who has Keen Ice and AP ranked equal shouldn't be calling anyone delusional... :lol: )

With that being said, I hear Saratoga is a bit of a closer's track this year...Keen Ice is the best closer in a field packed with closers, which is the main reason why I have him ranked so highly.

Keen Ice is my main play here...and maybe Upstart if his odds hold to his morning line...

Given all things equal, American Pharoah should DOMINATE this field start to finish, so I expect to lose again while betting against this horse. I haven't seen such a dominant early pace scenario since the Belmont Stakes, and this one is even MORE SO. It's scary how TimeFormUS has this race so much in AP's pocket early on...if Espinoza doesn't screw up and AP doesn't go out there rank as the devil, he can't lose.

BUT, if this track does come up as favoring closers, it could get very messy for AP down the stretch...like I said, an interesting race at a mile and a quarter.Thank you so much for this. I always love an early April Fool's joke.

[Ocala Mike]

:2:





:1: :7: :4:

[davew]

AP is 1/5 ML and probably will be less than even money


you will have a couple value bets, and even if they lose, will be good bets according to your line

[Quesmark]

I see a horse that could have an entire cavalry barreling towards him down the stretch if the track is biased AGAINST speed later today...that's the way I look at it, and that's the angle I'm taking to bet against AP, once again.

Remember, I only need a 9/2 shot to make this venture profitable, as I've only bet against AP 4 times this year... :lol:

Betting against AP isn't as crazy as some make it sound.
"Biased against speed?"
NYRA track maintenance knows which way AP likes it,and will be accomadating hosts.

[DRIVEWAY]

Agree . . . and hearing the following from Larry Collmus (in stunned voice) would be music to my ears:
AND AMERICAN PHAROAH DOES NOT WANT TO GO ON!!! IT'LL BE THESE TWO, [FROSTED] AND [SMART TRANSITION] WHO WILL BATTLE IT OUT TO THE WIRE WITH KEEN ICE COMING FAST ON THE OUTSIDE!!!

Now to figure out how to fill in the blanks

Good Luck

[Speed Figure]

With AP at 1/5 everything looks like an overlay.

[PaceAdvantage]

"Biased against speed?"
NYRA track maintenance knows which way AP likes it,and will be accomadating hosts.They only do that for Shug when Easy Goer is running... ;)

[nijinski]

"Biased against speed?"
NYRA track maintenance knows which way AP likes it,and will be accomadating hosts.
They will certainly work to accomadate Pharoah but there are limits .safety standards come first , they cannot create a major souped speedway for him these days .

[Aerocraft67]

I liked :7: Keen Ice for the place spot in the Haskell, and he looked playable as a close third choice for that role in the exacta probables, but I wonder if he'll be too far back and others will hang on for the first few spots here. I like :6: Frosted about as much for the deeper closing proposition here, but at double the ML, maybe :7: is the way to go. Any closer might do well to keep ahead of the plodding longshots :5: , :8: & :9:; if :7: runs true to the Pace Projector, he'll accomplish that.

The DRF handicappers like :4: Texas Red. He's listed as a closer, along with :10: Smart Transition, but they look like midpack runners on the projector. These up-and-comers could do well from what seems like a favorable pace spot but the other contenders have faced tougher. The :10: is getting a little attention as a wiseguyish longshot.

Question for me is, can :1: Upstart sustain the second-fastest pace throughout and keep the late runners at bay? He seems least apt to thrive at the distance among the top condenders, based on TF pedigree scores, so maybe he's a little vulnerable to the late runs here. But the projector has him all alone in second; with that to himself, seems he could run his race and have his best shot at the end. He's also a horse for the course.

I'm thinking exacta :2: / :1: , trifecta :2: / :1: :7: / :1: :7: , and superfecta :2: / :4: :6: :10: / :1: :7: / :1: :7: , maybe :2: / :1: :7: / :4: :6: :10: / :1: :7: too.

[Quesmark]

They will certainly work to accomadate Pharoah but there are limits .safety standards come first , they cannot create a major souped speedway for him these days .
It won't be a quagmire either,just a little tilted in his favor...

[nijinski]

Bafferts has to be a little concerned when a horse from a humble track takes the 8th against those who competed in stakes race , very nice horse but typical of Saratoga outcomes .

[raybo]

Here is my fair odds line (ps: my line is hardly ever good enough to actually use):

:2: American Pharoah - 1.6/1
:1: Upstart ------------- 9.2/1
:7: Keen Ice ------------9.2/1
:6: Frosted -------------10.7/1
:4: Texas Red ----------25.4/1

Good luck all!

[Robert Goren]

There are only two ways AP gets beats.
1: Something physical goes wrong with him during the running of the race.
2: He gets stiffed.
In either case, there is no way you can logically pick the winner. 1/5 is probably a gift, but for the limited bankroll, it is not probably not worth a bet. I, sure in heck, would not bet against him though. Watch the race and enjoy a once in a lifetime horse run is the way to proceed. There are better races to wager on.

[lamboguy]

i don't think that a closer can beat AP today, but the track is playing outside and if the PHAROAH breaks a steps slow he could be vulnerable from the inside.

i have seen better opportunities in other spots today.

if the horse goes off less than $2.40 he is worth a bet against

[whodoyoulike]

I'm going to approach this race differently where I'll be looking at:

Name ................. PP ............ Run Style
Upstart ............. :1: ............ E/P
AP .................... :2: ............ E/P
Texas Red ......... :4: ............ Closer
Frosted ............. :6: ............ P
Keen Ice ........... :7: ............ Closer

I see 4 E/P and 6 Closers so I'll bet to PLACE any of the above horses at >= 10/1. And, maybe a straight exacta with AP on top if the payout is worth it.

[jettroofer]

Tri :2: / :1: / :4: , :6: , :10:
EX :1: :2: Box
Super :1: :2: / :1: :2: / :4: :6: :10: / :4: :6: :10:
WPS :1:

[Tor Ekman]

You guys are gonna be all over me for this one... :lol:

(Fair Line | Value Line)

:2: American Pharoah (3-1 | 4-1)
:7: Keen Ice (3-1 | 4-1)
:6: Frosted (9-2 | 6-1)
:4: Texas Red (9-1 | 12-1)
:1: Upstart (10-1 | 13-1)

Yeah, I guess I have Keen Ice and AP as equals... :lol: :lol: :lol:

This is a very interesting race. It reminds me a lot of the Belmont Stakes pace setup. American Pharoah has a MONSTROUS edge in the early speed department. He should get the EASIEST of leads. NOBODY should be able to touch him early. He should WALK early, as easy as he pleases, just like the Belmont.

Much to EMD4ME's chagrin, NOBODY is going to be able to test AP early...it's just not possible, and anyone that thinks it will happen is delusional. AP is so superior early to this field, it's remarkable. (I know, a guy who has Keen Ice and AP ranked equal shouldn't be calling anyone delusional... :lol: )

With that being said, I hear Saratoga is a bit of a closer's track this year...Keen Ice is the best closer in a field packed with closers, which is the main reason why I have him ranked so highly.

Keen Ice is my main play here...and maybe Upstart if his odds hold to his morning line...

Given all things equal, American Pharoah should DOMINATE this field start to finish, so I expect to lose again while betting against this horse. I haven't seen such a dominant early pace scenario since the Belmont Stakes, and this one is even MORE SO. It's scary how TimeFormUS has this race so much in AP's pocket early on...if Espinoza doesn't screw up and AP doesn't go out there rank as the devil, he can't lose.

BUT, if this track does come up as favoring closers, it could get very messy for AP down the stretch...like I said, an interesting race at a mile and a quarter.BAM!!!

[davew]

You guys are gonna be all over me for this one... :lol:

(Fair Line | Value Line)

:2: American Pharoah (3-1 | 4-1)
:7: Keen Ice (3-1 | 4-1)
:6: Frosted (9-2 | 6-1)
:4: Texas Red (9-1 | 12-1)
:1: Upstart (10-1 | 13-1)

Yeah, I guess I have Keen Ice and AP as equals... :lol: :lol: :lol:

.

I am guessing you probably got back much of what you previously lost betting against AP

[Aerocraft67]

Wow! Nice work PA!

[Ocala Mike]

Well played, Mike PA! Takes balls to swim against the tide and make it to the shore intact.

[Tom]

Man injured at Saratoga when racing program was spiked after the 11th race on Saturday....

[PaceAdvantage]

BAM!!!True that. And congrats to you Tor for being one of the few in my corner on this...

Thanks all for the kind words...made back all the money I lost on AP this year and then some.

[Stillriledup]

True that. And congrats to you Tor for being one of the few in my corner on this...

Thanks all for the kind words...made back all the money I lost on AP this year and then some.

You just have to stay the course betting against big favorites like this. Well done, you manned up and had confidence and didnt let all the hype scare you away.

You went Legend!

[cj]

Thank you so much for this. I always love an early April Fool's joke.


Hmmm...

[raybo]

Congrats Mike! Glad you finally beat him! I passed the race, simply because if AP had his game I didn't feel anyone could stay with him once he got in his groove. Problem was he never got in his groove, even in mediocre fractions. :(

This wasn't the AP we've been watching all year.

[whodoyoulike]

Nice call PA.

I should've boxed.

[Tape Reader]

Congrats Boss! Stop being so humble at the track and the markets. You do great work.

[Vigorish]

That was some stellar handicapping, Pace Advantage! For some confounded reason, I stumbled upon your money line before the race. My plan was to avoid the win bet and make a sizeable exacta box with AP and Keen Ice. I figured Keen Ice was the logical second choice, with a small outside chance of beating Pharaoh. However, my sense was that AP was simply too talented to warrant a wager on his opposition. Your post caused me to reappraise the situation and think more carefully about the dynamics of the previous races involving AP and Keen Ice. When projecting the outcome of this race, I thought of how added distance against an improving Keen Ice could pose serious obstacles for AP. In the Haskell, Keen Ice was swallowing up ground as the race neared its conclusion. Yes, AP was pulled up and could have won by a greater margin. However, an additional furlong over a quirky track (with more talented opposition) made the 16-1 odds on Keen Ice seem incredible. For whatever reason, I think sometimes as handicappers we fail to truly notice some of the finer nuances of distance. For example, I remember being surprised when Shackleford held off Animal Kingdom in the Preakness. In retrospect, this should not have seemed surprising when one retrospectively shortened the distance of the Derby and considered the context of the new race. In a similar vein, I imagined the race re-run at the Haskell, but with an added furlong, a less advantageous surface, a deeper field, and a consistently improving Keen Ice. Anyway, thanks again as I almost found your post somewhat shocking when I first read it. After further contemplation I was able to hit the exacta, super AND a sizable win bet (yes, I am bragging because these wins do not come often). Going forward, I hope AP is not retired assuming he is in good condition. His second place finish was anything but embarrassing. Maybe he is a bit tired from being shipped around like a fed ex delivery parcel. Thanks again!

[FocusWiz]

Really good analysis of the race, PA. Nice price too!

[Tom]

So...whodayalike in da 13th?

[sammy the sage]

good call by the boss-man...yes had disagreements over the years...but not too much on horses...again...EXCELLENT call...public at that....I sat it out... :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

ps...be careful...very careful on the stock plays...and B.O.L....unlike the horses...there are VERY big nasty people there...

[thaskalos]

It was a great call, and a courageous bet made against a formidable foe.

I didn't agree with your betting line, PA...but that wasn't the important thing here. You had Keen Ice as a likely winner of this race, and I did not...and for that you deserve every accolade that you get. Great job. :ThmbUp:

[highnote]

Nice job, Mike and props to you for posting before the race -- unlike me -- who is about to redboard. :D

I bet Keen Ice. He only lost by a couple links in the Haskell. I remember a long time ago Dick Mitchell wrote about how horses take turns beating each other. 16-1 on Keen Ice was a huge overlay. The betting public had too much sentimental money on AP. I also bet AP to place because he was underbet to place relative to his win odds. I didn't think to bet the exacta. :bang:

I have been saying since AP's TC bid that he never got tested and he always got to run nice easy 12 second furlongs -- which is perfect for winning a classic. However, Espinoza made a tactical error in the Travers when he tried to run with Frosted up the backstretch and picked up the pace to 111 and change for 6 furlongs after an easy 48 second half (which was 12 seconds per furlong -- perfect for AP).

Also, pedigree might have finally reared its head. AP's dosage is 4.33 which is slightly high for 10 furlongs. Keen Ice has a dosage of 2.73 -- well within the classic range.

Pace was a huge factor, but pedigree was also a huge factor. If AP had more stamina in his pedigree then a 111 and change fraction probably should not have been too big of a challenge to overcome.

It could also be that AP matured early and Keen Ice is just starting to mature. Couple Keen Ice's maturity with his low dosage and you have the recipe for a classic winner in August.

AP's connections might want to think twice before sending him to the BC Classic. I have a feeling an older horse like Honor Code would have crushed this field had he been allowed to race against three year olds today.

If AP gets a similar setup in the BC then HC or some other older horse should have his way with the three year olds, Keen Ice, notwithstanding.

[lamboguy]

i don't think that a closer can beat AP today, but the track is playing outside and if the PHAROAH breaks a steps slow he could be vulnerable from the inside.

i have seen better opportunities in other spots today.

if the horse goes off less than $2.40 he is worth a bet againstgreat call on the race for Mike. he took a lot of heat for picking against the champion.

i think Baffert made a big mistake running this horse. he just wasn't 100% and just was not the same supper star that we all love. excuses don't help you when you have to rip up your tickets, but i think those 3000 mile plane rides finally caught up to this great horse. this horse needs a rest now from a grueling gut wrenching campaign.

for the record the only bet i made on this race was the $25 i bet on PHAROAH with triple odds at TVG.

[Exotic1]

You guys are gonna be all over me for this one... :lol:

(Fair Line | Value Line)

:2: American Pharoah (3-1 | 4-1)
:7: Keen Ice (3-1 | 4-1)
:6: Frosted (9-2 | 6-1)
:4: Texas Red (9-1 | 12-1)
:1: Upstart (10-1 | 13-1)

Yeah, I guess I have Keen Ice and AP as equals... :lol: :lol: :lol:

This is a very interesting race. It reminds me a lot of the Belmont Stakes pace setup. American Pharoah has a MONSTROUS edge in the early speed department. He should get the EASIEST of leads. NOBODY should be able to touch him early. He should WALK early, as easy as he pleases, just like the Belmont.

Much to EMD4ME's chagrin, NOBODY is going to be able to test AP early...it's just not possible, and anyone that thinks it will happen is delusional. AP is so superior early to this field, it's remarkable. (I know, a guy who has Keen Ice and AP ranked equal shouldn't be calling anyone delusional... :lol: )

With that being said, I hear Saratoga is a bit of a closer's track this year...Keen Ice is the best closer in a field packed with closers, which is the main reason why I have him ranked so highly.

Keen Ice is my main play here...and maybe Upstart if his odds hold to his morning line...

Given all things equal, American Pharoah should DOMINATE this field start to finish, so I expect to lose again while betting against this horse. I haven't seen such a dominant early pace scenario since the Belmont Stakes, and this one is even MORE SO. It's scary how TimeFormUS has this race so much in AP's pocket early on...if Espinoza doesn't screw up and AP doesn't go out there rank as the devil, he can't lose.

BUT, if this track does come up as favoring closers, it could get very messy for AP down the stretch...like I said, an interesting race at a mile and a quarter.

Wow.

Win, Exacta, Triple, Superfecta, Hi-5.

Astounding.

[Robert Goren]

It was pretty obvious from the get-go that AP did not like the surface he was racing on. Pace seemed to sense that might be case and made a great call. Much to my chagrin, I was not smart enough to figure it out. I must admit that I am getting tired of being made to look a fool by him in these big races. I hope he made a ton of money because when you go out on a limb, you deserve to be handsomely rewarded. And nobody in racing deserves it more than Pace for keeping this site up and running.
AP will be fine when he gets back on a surface more to his liking. I do hope he retires after the Breeders Cup. I would hate to see a repeat of Rachael Alexandra's four year old campaign. It was extreme painful to watch. We have seen too many great horses run long past their prime in recent years. It does not help the sport to see a triple crown race winner finish up the track in race after race.

[Tommy Tom]

Very nice...very very nice

Congratulations !!

[PICSIX]

The only way this horse loses, he's struck in the gate by lightning.....you like the odds on lightning :confused: :confused: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Think that's from, Let It Ride

I heard the thunder crack....nice job, Mike :ThmbUp:

[PaceAdvantage]

Thanks everyone!

What I saw in this race is what I try and see in every race I handicap and consider for a wager. The numbers I use (TimeFormUS), and the WAY that I use them, made it seem to me that Keen Ice wasn't THAT far apart from AP when you got right down to it. I did NOT use AP's best TFUS number...I try and concentrate on the spotlight numbers unless I see a reason not to. I'm not sure this is the best way to use TFUS numbers, but it seems to work for me.

I also concentrate on the early/late figures.

And let's face it, I got lucky that Keen Ice won this race. The pace was NOT ANYWHERE NEAR what I expected. I was DEAD WRONG about the early pace. I thought AP would be alone on the lead on the backstretch...chugging along by a good 2-3 lengths at least...that DID NOT HAPPEN...and when it didn't happen, I knew something wasn't right with AP...either that, or Frosted was being used way beyond his means early on...I think it was a case of the former, as Frosted finished the race in good order, only beaten 3 lengths...so it really was a case of AP not running his race, in my opinion...there was no way before the race that anyone could convince me that AP would be pressed the whole way by Frosted and that this race might set up for the best closer in Keen Ice.

HOWEVER, I don't put all of my faith in pace setups, no matter how extreme they might look (like this one did, in favor of AP). I also weigh heavily the individual figures that I use and try to perceive them as a whole (which is where the line comes into play), and they kept telling me Keen Ice was worth a bet at 16-1, regardless of a perceived serious disadvantage in the way this pace looked to setup on paper.

Keen Ice isn't THE BETTER horse, but he was on this particular day and in this particular race.

They all get beat eventually...one of my jobs is to try and be there when they do.

[castaway01]

If you were smart enough to bet Keen Ice to win instead of in exotics, you deserve even more credit. I heard the few who were talking about a possible upset saying how overbet AP would be in Pick 3 and Pick 4 pools. While those prices were just fine, you have to have the other legs. If you liked Keen Ice, 16-1 was a great payout.

Congrats on some nice handicapping.

[raybo]

If you were smart enough to bet Keen Ice to win instead of in exotics, you deserve even more credit. I heard the few who were talking about a possible upset saying how overbet AP would be in Pick 3 and Pick 4 pools. While those prices were just fine, you have to have the other legs. If you liked Keen Ice, 16-1 was a great payout.

Congrats on some nice handicapping.

I agree, Mike was the only one here, that I could find after scouring threads on the subject, that actually made a case for KI and bet accordingly. (yes, I believe he actually BET his convictions, which is a lot more than I can say of the others who "magically" had him AFTER the race, and actually BET him).

PA was the man yesterday (even though he still got lucky that AP didn't have it all - LOL)!! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[cj]

Betting lines are made to find value bets. I've always said this about personal lines...it doesn't matter if your 3-1 shots win 25% of the time. What matters is if the horses you bet based on your line win enough to make a profit.

If I make 100 horses 3-1, bet only those at 6-1 or higher, and enough win to make a profit, that is a GREAT line.

[thaskalos]

Betting lines are made to find value bets. I've always said this about personal lines...it doesn't matter if your 3-1 shots win 25% of the time. What matters is if the horses you bet based on your line win enough to make a profit.

If I make 100 horses 3-1, bet only those at 6-1 or higher, and enough win to make a profit, that is a GREAT line.

As far as I could tell, I was the only one here who criticized PA for his betting line in the Travers. I did so not because I thought that betting against the Pharoah was a mistake...but because a betting line which listed the Pharoah as a 3-1 co-favorite along with Keen Ice was not a "fair" representation of the two horses going into the race. The Pharoah was obviously the much better horse going in...and the 3-1 betting line gives the impression that the two horses were of equal ability.

If Mike had the Pharoah at 7-5 and Keen Ice at 5-1...then I wouldn't have said a thing. But this is a place where handicappers congregate and debate issues...and a betting line with the Pharoah listed as a 3-1 co-favorite deserves to be questioned, IMO...even after the improbable result that we all saw. No sour grapes...Mike cashed, and we did not...and that's the important thing. But the betting line, although a minor consideration in this case, should have been more skewed...in order to reveal the obvious difference between the two horses. In my opinion at least...

[cj]

As far as I could tell, I was the only one here who criticized PA for his betting line in the Travers. I did so not because I thought that betting against the Pharoah was a mistake...but because a betting line which listed the Pharoah as a 3-1 co-favorite along with Keen Ice was not a "fair" representation of the two horses going into the race. The Pharoah was obviously the much better horse going in...and the 3-1 betting line gives the impression that the two horses were of equal ability.

If Mike had the Pharoah at 7-5 and Keen Ice at 5-1...then I wouldn't have said a thing. But this is a place where handicappers congregate and debate issues...and a betting line with the Pharoah listed as a 3-1 co-favorite deserves to be questioned, IMO...even after the improbable result that we all saw. No sour grapes...Mike cashed, and we did not...and that's the important thing. But the betting line, although a minor consideration in this case, should have been more skewed...in order to reveal the obvious difference between the two horses. In my opinion at least...

I agree, Pharoah is the better horse. But if making that kind of line is profitable for PA, that is all that matters. This isn't the first time he's posted a line like that and cashed a big ticket, won't be the last either. I'm certainly not questioning your right to debate it...made for good discussion. My line was similar to what you are saying.

[PaceAdvantage]

thask:

The odds line is automatically generated after I plug in the various TFUS figures I use from all the horses in the race. I only listed my contenders in this thread, but a line is made for every horse.

I already listed the relevant numbers I used for both AP and Keen Ice. You can see that their spotlight figures were only 4 points apart. And you can also see that AP was quite dominant early and Keen Ice was quite dominant late.

Given that, you should now see why they were rated so closely...

[Storm Cadet]

Nice job Mike...you still have it. :ThmbUp:

[iceknight]

Nice job Mike. Great to see you making accurate longshot calls well ahead of time and then staying classy about it! << that is the bigger thing around here.

[reckless]

Nice going Mike.

For the record I enjoyed (and mostly agreed with, fwiw) your prior analysis' of the Triple Crown and other major races this season.

Keep it up!

[Tom]

But the betting line, although a minor consideration in this case, should have been more skewed...in order to reveal the obvious difference between the two horses.

It ended up accurately revealing the differences between the two horse TODAY. The day you make the bet. As the line predicted, not much between them. As his lines have done in the past, netting him more than a couple of big payoffs.

But lets look at the other lines that made AP 2-5 and KI 9-1.
Why are you not berating those who let a solid overlay go by at 17-1?

Would you rather make the right line or cash a big ticket?

[raybo]

It ended up accurately revealing the differences between the two horse TODAY. The day you make the bet. As the line predicted, not much between them. As his lines have done in the past, netting him more than a couple of big payoffs.

But lets look at the other lines that made AP 2-5 and KI 9-1.
Why are you not berating those who let a solid overlay go by at 17-1?
Wold you rather make the right line or cash a big ticket?

In my mind, if I make a horse 3/1 and his live odds are 16/1 off a 12/1 morning line, he's dead on the board and I probably need to reassess my odds. In this case, the much better horse threw a clunker, for whatever reason, it happens. Mike was on the right horse at the right time, good for him! :ThmbUp:

[Tom]

Normally, I would agree, but that is the beauty of big days like this, Derby Day, BC...so much much stupid money in the pools you have a real chance for huge score not found most of the time.

[raybo]

Normally, I would agree, but that is the beauty of big days like this, Derby Day, BC...so much much stupid money in the pools you have a real chance for huge score not found most of the time.

Obviously Mike's line is much different than almost every other line maker out there. That's a given. And, the fact that so much "stupid" money is in the pools on these big days, is also a given. My contention is that there was also a lot of stupid money in the pools in several other races that day, races that were not nearly as contentious regarding the other likely contenders. Most of the time the undercards are better betting races than the big race. Kudos to Mike for having the winner, I just felt like other races on the card were smarter bets, for me.

[Ocala Mike]

even after the improbable result that we all saw



I am usually in thas's corner, and I don't believe I'm a frontrunner for Mike. In fact, I fell into the hype trap that AP was unbeatble myself.

I am of the opinion, however, that the whole point that PA was trying to make was that it wasn't an improbable result at all. His line told me that, however he arrived at the conclusion, that the :7: / :2: finish was just as likely as the :2: :7: finish when all was said and done.

thas, you remind me of that guy in the old joke who, watching a tape of a race he's seen before, roots harder than ever for the eventual second-place finisher. When asked why he did so by another guy, he replies, "I thought he'd improve."

[NorCalGreg]

Obviously Mike's line is much different than almost every other line maker out there. That's a given. And, the fact that so much "stupid" money is in the pools on these big days, is also a given. My contention is that there was also a lot of stupid money in the pools in several other races that day, races that were not nearly as contentious regarding the other likely contenders. Most of the time the undercards are better betting races than the big race. Kudos to Mike for having the winner, I just felt like other races on the card were smarter bets, for me.

I'm wondering what type of person would bet on AP? Just the casual fan, obviously, between sips of beer. I know they offer commemorative tickets, so that would be a big reason right there. I've been following this board all year--I think P.A.'s call was the top call so far, in a major race. (other than those that post "bet the 4--4 is good"
Did that guy that posted PRE-RACE "thanks for the april fools gift" ever come back, wipe the egg off his face, and congratulate P.A.? Naw, that would have been the manly thing to do.

[thaskalos]

Why are you not berating those who let a solid overlay go by at 17-1?

Would you rather make the right line or cash a big ticket?
Whom am I "berating"; do you even know what that word means? I am going to come to the man's site, and "berate" him? We can't post a minority opinion here anymore...without having it be considered a "berating"?

[raybo]

I am of the opinion, however, that the whole point that PA was trying to make was that it wasn't an improbable result at all. His line told me that, however he arrived at the conclusion, that the :7: / :2: finish was just as likely as the :2: :7: finish when all was said and done.



I'm waiting for Mike to respond, I'll be shocked if that's what he actually thought, that it was just as likely for KI to beat AP as it was for AP to beat KI. :bang:

His line may have said that but I doubt Mike actually thought that. If he did, then maybe I have too high an opinion of him as a handicapper? I hope not! He has a line, and that line, for whatever reason, placed AP and KI close, he bet the perceived value horse. That doesn't mean he actually thought KI was the better horse.

[whodoyoulike]

... I've been following this board all year--I think P.A.'s call was the top call so far, in a major race. ...

You must have missed his most recent BC post(s). And, he's had some good ones over the years. Some though, I thought could have just been lucky guesses but, he's been able to justify his picks.

Btw, I didn't bet his BC picks except the one but it lost.

[NorCalGreg]

You must have missed his most recent BC post(s). And, he's had some good ones over the years. Some though, I thought could have just been lucky guesses but, he's been able to justify his picks.

Btw, I didn't bet his BC picks except the one but it lost.


Now that you mention it....I did miss all that

[Tom]

Whom am I "berating"; do you even know what that word means? I am going to come to the man's site, and "berate" him? We can't post a minority opinion here anymore...without having it be considered a "berating"?

Oh lighten up.
I know what the GD word means.
You know what, forget it - I really don't give FF what you think about it.
You have made more than enough posts on this topic that make no sense in the face of reality.

[thaskalos]

Oh lighten up.
I know what the GD word means.
You know what, forget it - I really don't give FF what you think about it.
You have made more than enough posts on this topic that make no sense in the face of reality.
Lighten up, Tom.

[Sunday Silence]

What a great call. Congrats! Fantastic overlay.

Let's not get carried away here. Sort of comical talking about dosage on a horse that won the triple crown, isn't it?

This wasn't the horse that showed up at the Haskell. What beat him was a) the highly questionable and highly questioned move of shipping a horse, no matter how great, back east 2X and running him again in 3 weeks. b) potentially the surface. Might be a little deeper than he care for. But I would think it's A.

AP would beat Keen Ice 9 times out of 10. Yesterday was the 1. And because of the shipping it was somewhat projectable by folks smarter than me...

[Cratos]

You guys are gonna be all over me for this one... :lol:

(Fair Line | Value Line)

:2: American Pharoah (3-1 | 4-1)
:7: Keen Ice (3-1 | 4-1)
:6: Frosted (9-2 | 6-1)
:4: Texas Red (9-1 | 12-1)
:1: Upstart (10-1 | 13-1)

Yeah, I guess I have Keen Ice and AP as equals... :lol: :lol: :lol:

This is a very interesting race. It reminds me a lot of the Belmont Stakes pace setup. American Pharoah has a MONSTROUS edge in the early speed department. He should get the EASIEST of leads. NOBODY should be able to touch him early. He should WALK early, as easy as he pleases, just like the Belmont.

Much to EMD4ME's chagrin, NOBODY is going to be able to test AP early...it's just not possible, and anyone that thinks it will happen is delusional. AP is so superior early to this field, it's remarkable. (I know, a guy who has Keen Ice and AP ranked equal shouldn't be calling anyone delusional... :lol: )

With that being said, I hear Saratoga is a bit of a closer's track this year...Keen Ice is the best closer in a field packed with closers, which is the main reason why I have him ranked so highly.

Keen Ice is my main play here...and maybe Upstart if his odds hold to his morning line...

Given all things equal, American Pharoah should DOMINATE this field start to finish, so I expect to lose again while betting against this horse. I haven't seen such a dominant early pace scenario since the Belmont Stakes, and this one is even MORE SO. It's scary how TimeFormUS has this race so much in AP's pocket early on...if Espinoza doesn't screw up and AP doesn't go out there rank as the devil, he can't lose.

BUT, if this track does come up as favoring closers, it could get very messy for AP down the stretch...like I said, an interesting race at a mile and a quarter.
Being at Saratoga I am not following PA closely and I am just catching up with your Travers post; and it was an excellent handicapping post.

I don't know how you bet, but if you bet exotics (I do not) you had a good $200 exacts box for $1200.

Again, a very good exacta pick.

[highnote]

Let's not get carried away here. Sort of comical talking about dosage on a horse that won the triple crown, isn't it?

Absolutely not. Races like the Travers are very important to breeders. A big part of why they race is to increase the stud value. The KY Derby is very important to boosting the value of a stallion -- whether it is the value of the sire of the winner or the future stud value of the winner.

Now that I think about it... what's comical is to think that breeding is not important in horses contesting Grade 1 races at 10 furlongs.

This wasn't the horse that showed up at the Haskell.

The Haskell seemed to be more within AP's range. AP's 4.33 dosage is biased toward speed rather than stamina. It is a dosage not normally seen in classic distance types.

He ran the final fraction of the Travers in 26 2/5 off of a slowish pace. He ran the final fraction of the KY Derby in 26 3/5. I'd say this is a horse that has trouble staying 10 furlongs against top competition. AP would probably not be able to win the BC Classic against the best older classic distance horse in the country.

Still, if his stud fee is reasonable, he would be a terrific sire for those looking to get 9 furlong types -- which is a more common stakes distance today in the U.S. than 10 furlongs.

[cj]

What a great call. Congrats! Fantastic overlay.

Let's not get carried away here. Sort of comical talking about dosage on a horse that won the triple crown, isn't it?

This wasn't the horse that showed up at the Haskell. What beat him was a) the highly questionable and highly questioned move of shipping a horse, no matter how great, back east 2X and running him again in 3 weeks. b) potentially the surface. Might be a little deeper than he care for. But I would think it's A.

AP would beat Keen Ice 9 times out of 10. Yesterday was the 1. And because of the shipping it was somewhat projectable by folks smarter than me...

It was four weeks (- a day), not three. Not sure how this three weeks thing has been created but I keep seeing it over and over.

[Saratoga_Mike]

It was four weeks (- a day), not three. Not sure how this three weeks thing has been created but I keep seeing it over and over.

Yes, we live in a day and age where asking a horse to race back in 27 days is supposedly too much. Let me suggest the obvious: AP is a very nice horse who won the TC b/c the competition was subpar. The references to Secretariat were laughable, and I said this prior to the Travers loss. His ordinary Beyers (ordinary for a very nice Grade I stakes horse) said it all.

[highnote]

I agree, Pharoah is the better horse.

I would revise this statement, slightly...

AP is the better horse at 9 furlongs. It isn't clear if he is the better horse at 10 furlongs.

[cj]

I would revise this statement, slightly...

AP is the better horse at 9 furlongs. It isn't clear if he is the better horse at 10 furlongs.

I don't buy that. He beat him at 10 and 12 furlongs previously rather easily. Then he lost to him by less than a length at 10.

[cj]

Yes, we live in a day and age where asking a horse to race back in 27 days is supposedly too much. Let me suggest the obvious: AP is a very nice horse who won the TC b/c the competition was subpar. The references to Secretariat were laughable, and I said this prior to the Travers loss. His ordinary Beyers (ordinary for a very nice Grade I stakes horse) said it all.

All Beyers look ordinary compared to the past. It is the methodology, not the horses. By 2025 a 100 will be a G1 older male par at the current shrinkage rate.

[highnote]

thask:

The odds line is automatically generated after I plug in the various TFUS figures I use from all the horses in the race. I only listed my contenders in this thread, but a line is made for every horse.

I already listed the relevant numbers I used for both AP and Keen Ice. You can see that their spotlight figures were only 4 points apart. And you can also see that AP was quite dominant early and Keen Ice was quite dominant late.

Given that, you should now see why they were rated so closely...


Mike or CJ -- can you post a list of the final figure you think each horse would have run in the Travers? If so, I can run the numbers through my montecarlo software and generate an odds line.

Here's the oddsline I generated by running Beyer figures through the software:

Upstart, 102 Beyer = 12.7-1 odds

AP, 109 = 2-1

Mid Ocean, 86 = 3700-1

Texas Red, 106 = 9/2

Frammento, 89 = 1000-1

Frosted, 106 = 9/2

Keen Ice, 107 = 7/2

Tale of Verve, 90 = 650-1

King of NY, 78 = 239,000-1

Smart Transition, 90 = 650-1

[cj]

Mike or CJ -- can you post a list of the final figure you think each horse would have run in the Travers? If so, I can run the numbers through my montecarlo software and generate an odds line.

Here's the oddsline I generated by running Beyer figures through the software:

Upstart, 102 Beyer = 12.7-1 odds

AP, 109 = 2-1

Mid Ocean, 86 = 3700-1

Texas Red, 106 = 9/2

Frammento, 89 = 1000-1

Frosted, 106 = 9/2

Keen Ice, 107 = 7/2

Tale of Verve, 90 = 650-1

King of NY, 78 = 239,000-1

Smart Transition, 90 = 650-1

I would never base it on one figure. I use more than that and do something similar. Mike actually uses a version of the spreadsheet I created (probably modified by now) and it uses multiple projections for each horse.

[highnote]

I don't buy that. He beat him at 10 and 12 furlongs previously rather easily. Then he lost to him by less than a length at 10.

AP may have peaked. We don't know. We also don't know if Keen Ice is maturing and getting better.

Dosage suggests that AP has a pedigree that is slightly biased toward speed while Keen Ice's is biased toward stamina.

It's hard to argue against anyone who thinks AP is better than Keen Ice, but in a 10 furlong race knowing that AP closes in about 26 and 3/5, Keen Ice at 17-1 is a better bet than AP.

[cj]

AP may have peaked. We don't know. We also don't know if Keen Ice is maturing and getting better.

Dosage suggests that AP has a pedigree that is slightly biased toward speed while Keen Ice's is biased toward stamina.

It's hard to argue against anyone who thinks AP is better than Keen Ice, but in a 10 furlong race knowing that AP closes in about 26 and 3/5, Keen Ice at 17-1 is a better bet than AP.

Of course he was the better bet IMO, I wasn't implying otherwise. I've been saying Keen Ice was the real deal in other threads and would win some big races. He's been improving nicely.

[thaskalos]

We are talking "dosage"...after the horse cruised to victory at a mile and a half?

[highnote]

I would never base it on one figure. I use more than that and do something similar. Mike actually uses a version of the spreadsheet I created (probably modified by now) and it uses multiple projections for each horse.

The way the montecarlo software works is that you put in one figure and a standard deviation for the figure. So in effect you are putting in a range of figures.

But I guess my point is that PA's 3-1 line on AP is not unreasonable. My montecarlo generated line had him at 2-1 and Keen Ice at 7/2.

[cj]

The way the montecarlo software works is that you put in one figure and a standard deviation for the figure. So in effect you are putting in a range of figures.

But I guess my point is that PA's 3-1 line on AP is not unreasonable. My montecarlo generated line had him at 2-1 and Keen Ice at 7/2.

I got it, I do the same with three figures, all with a range.

[highnote]

I got it, I do the same with three figures, all with a range.


Using a normal standard deviation is not a bad way to go because it makes the math easier.

If a horse runs 80 Beyer figures consistently the chances of it running an 85 are probably smaller than it's chances of running a 70. In other words, the upwards boundary is harder to obtain than the lower boundry.

The distributions are probably skewed rather than normal. But the math for skewed distributions are a lot trickier and I don't know if it the oddsline would be much better given the amount error in the whole process.

[raybo]

He ran the final fraction of the Travers in 26 2/5 off of a slowish pace. He ran the final fraction of the KY Derby in 26 3/5. I'd say this is a horse that has trouble staying 10 furlongs against top competition. AP would probably not be able to win the BC Classic against the best older classic distance horse in the country.

Still, if his stud fee is reasonable, he would be a terrific sire for those looking to get 9 furlong types -- which is a more common stakes distance today in the U.S. than 10 furlongs.

You're apparently trying to compare the Derby, with its 20 horse field to the Travers with its 10 horse field. First of all, that does not compute!

To come home rather slow in the Derby can easily be explained simply due to field size and the first time these horses attempt 10 furlongs.

The Travers can be easily explained by AP not having his "A" game (yeah I know, I'm constantly saying the same thing about AP's performance Saturday, but it seems obvious to me, and others here and other places, Steve Haskin even predicted it for all to see for Christ's sake! While I'm not a big Haskin fan, I think he nailed it this time.).

I guess that AP running well at 12 furlongs doesn't count, and don't give me the slow pace thing because that was not his fault, he ran as fast as he needed to run to win.

[highnote]

You're apparently trying to compare the Derby, with its 20 horse field to the Travers with its 10 horse field. First of all, that does not compute!

To come home rather slow in the Derby can easily be explained simply due to field size and the first time these horses attempt 10 furlongs.

The Travers can be easily explained by AP not having his "A" game (yeah I know, I'm constantly saying the same thing about AP's performance Saturday, but it seems obvious to me, and others here and other places, Steve Haskin even predicted it for all to see for Christ's sake! While I'm not a big Haskin fan, I think he nailed it this time.).

I guess that AP running well at 12 furlongs doesn't count, and don't give me the slow pace thing because that was not his fault, he ran as fast as he needed to run to win.

It seems to me that it is more likely that due to AP's breeding, classic distances are not his optimal distances.

Horses can and do outrun their pedigrees. As SteveR pointed out the 3 year old classics are restricted races and AP has run well against his age group at the classic distances. But it seems unlikely he would run well against open company of older horses at classic distances.

A breeder with a band of broodmares who wants to win the 3 year old classics could probably increase his chances of producing a classic horse by finding a stallion with more stamina in his pedigree than AP.

[classhandicapper]

I just saw this thread for the first time. Great pick PA!!!

[raybo]

It seems to me that it is more likely that due to AP's breeding, classic distances are not his optimal distances.

Horses can and do outrun their pedigrees. As SteveR pointed out the 3 year old classics are restricted races and AP has run well against his age group at the classic distances. But it seems unlikely he would run well against open company of older horses at classic distances.

A breeder with a band of broodmares who wants to win the 3 year old classics could probably increase his chances of producing a classic horse by finding a stallion with more stamina in his pedigree than AP.

This thread is about the Travers, not about some fictional race against older horses. AP ran at 1 1/4 miles and 1 1/2 miles already, against 3 yos, which he is one by the way. He prevailed in two of those 3 races and was not at his best in the single loss, that is all that matters, until he goes up against older horses in the BCC. When that happens then we can talk about pedigree and its "perceived" validity regarding distance capabilities. Until then, AP's pedigree allowed him to win a 10f and a 12f race against his peers. Pedigree is relational to the time period in question, and is not relational to previous time periods. Breeding, and the breed itself, has changed and is unlikely to change back anytime soon. Just accept that fact and you'll be much better off in the vast majority of racing in North America without pedigree assessments. We don't race many 10f or longer races here, so any "perceived" distance pedigree advantage has been severely diluted over many years of breeding for speed instead of endurance. That is a fact of life in NA racing.

[highnote]

This thread is about the Travers, not about some fictional race against older horses.

Using a theoretical example of AP against older horses supports my hypothesis that pedigree matters in the Travers and that AP's pedigree is deficient in the stamina department compared to Keen Ice.

The fact that AP won at classic distances in the spring shows that he was an early maturing horse -- which is what U.S. breeders have been trying to breed so that they can get a quick return on their buck. But just because he won the spring classics in restricted company doesn't mean classic distances are his optimal distances. The fact that he ran slow final fractions at 10 furlongs supports my hypothesis about AP lacking stamina to compete at the next level over classic distances and it was a factor in why I bet against AP and bet on Keen Ice in the Travers.

Speak of early maturation -- this probably explains why horses that win the juvenile don't often win the spring classics.

[raybo]

Using a theoretical example of AP against older horses supports my hypothesis that pedigree matters in the Travers and that AP's pedigree is deficient in the stamina department compared to Keen Ice.

The fact that AP won at classic distances in the spring shows that he was an early maturing horse -- which is what U.S. breeders have been trying to breed so that they can get a quick return on their buck. But just because he won the spring classics in restricted company doesn't mean classic distances are his optimal distances. The fact that he ran slow final fractions at 10 furlongs supports my hypothesis about AP lacking stamina to compete at the next level over classic distances and it was a factor in why I bet against AP and bet on Keen Ice in the Travers.

Speak of early maturation -- this probably explains why horses that win the juvenile don't often win the spring classics.

Post a shot of your ticket on Keen Ice please, because you did not post your pick of him before the race, that I can find.

You are assuming a whole lot by your "theoretical example", in order to justify your opinion about stamina and pedigree. Let's wait until the BCC and see if you're right about that. It was obvious to me, and his trainer and jockey, and a bunch of other people all over the country, that AP was not on his game Saturday. If you can't accept that then we have nothing else to talk about.

[Cratos]

Using a theoretical example of AP against older horses supports my hypothesis that pedigree matters in the Travers and that AP's pedigree is deficient in the stamina department compared to Keen Ice.

The fact that AP won at classic distances in the spring shows that he was an early maturing horse -- which is what U.S. breeders have been trying to breed so that they can get a quick return on their buck. But just because he won the spring classics in restricted company doesn't mean classic distances are his optimal distances. The fact that he ran slow final fractions at 10 furlongs supports my hypothesis about AP lacking stamina to compete at the next level over classic distances and it was a factor in why I bet against AP and bet on Keen Ice in the Travers.

Speak of early maturation -- this probably explains why horses that win the juvenile don't often win the spring classics.
I am not in agreement with your assertion about AP's stamina deficiency because the horse has performed as well as expected by a maturing 3yo.

If you want to argue that Curlin has moved to the forefront with Tapit as a top sire, you might have a good argument.

However I will say again that AP's Travers performance should be remembered like Slew's performance against Affirmed in the JCGC in which Exceller became the beneficiary as did Keen Ice last Saturday. This is not to take anything away from Keen Ice except to say that AP came back to him because of his battle with Frosted.

[highnote]

Post a shot of your ticket on Keen Ice please, because you did not post your pick of him before the race, that I can find.

If you go back and read my first post in this thread, #40, you will see that I admitted I was "redboarding" when I talked about having a bet on Keen Ice; unlike our gracious host who gave his picks in advance.

I don't have a ticket I can show you. I can only post the bet summary from my ADW:

02:31:22 PM Saratoga (T) 11 Win $ 5.00 7 $ 5.00 $0.00 $85.00 $80.00
02:31:54 PM Saratoga (T) 11 Place $20.00 2 $20.00 $0.00 $24.00 $ 4.00
02:43:59 PM Saratoga (T) 11 Place $10.00 2 $10.00 $0.00 $12.00 $ 2.00

Not exactly professional level betting, I will admit, as I wasn't even planning on betting race. However, I took a flyer when I saw Keen Ice's odds because my speed figures rated him within a few points of AP and also because I have always felt classic distances are not AP's game. AP looked a little under-bet to place so I hedged in case Keen Ice lost. It worked out well.


You are assuming a whole lot by your "theoretical example", in order to justify your opinion about stamina and pedigree. Let's wait until the BCC and see if you're right about that. It was obvious to me, and his trainer and jockey, and a bunch of other people all over the country, that AP was not on his game Saturday. If you can't accept that then we have nothing else to talk about.

It is entirely possible that AP will continue to improve and mature by the time the BCC rolls around. I think 9 furlongs is his strong suit, not 10 and beyond.

You are willing to anoint superhorse status on a horse that runs well in the 3 year old classics against his class, but finishes the final 2 furlongs in 26 and change and make excuses when he doesn't live up to your expectations. I am not.

That doesn't make you wrong, but I like to base my opinion on the evidence, not on what other people around the country say. If we listen to other people, we would assume it had been 3 weeks between the Haskell and the Travers, when in fact it was a day shy of 4 weeks.

[highnote]

I am not in agreement with your assertion about AP's stamina deficiency because the horse has performed as well as expected by a maturing 3yo.

If you want to argue that Curlin has moved to the forefront with Tapit as a top sire, you might have a good argument.

However I will say again that AP's Travers performance should be remembered like Slew's performance against Affirmed in the JCGC in which Exceller became the beneficiary as did Keen Ice last Saturday. This is not to take anything away from Keen Ice except to say that AP came back to him because of his battle with Frosted.

To be clear, I am not saying he is totally devoid of stamina, but that he probably doesn't have as much stamina as horses with lower dosage indices and some proof of that is his final 2 furlong times in the KYD and Travers.

He won the Belmont while nearly walking the early fractions. So of course, given his quick turn of foot and having plenty of gas in the tank, he was able to win at 12 furlongs.

I'll admit, that if Frosted had not pressured him into running a sub 24 split from 4 furlongs to 6 furlongs, there is a possibility we would be having an entirely different conversation. And if Keen Ice had not been entered we also would be having a different conversation. But the facts are that AP ran a slow final 2 furlongs after having run moderate early fractions and Keen Ice beat him.

No doubt, AP is a terrific horse and a champion of his generation, but that does not make him a super horse, in my opinion. He still may improve with age and be competitive with the best older horses in the world. I hope so, but I am skeptical.

Other people disagree and think AP is a super horse. That's fine. But no one has shown me strong enough evidence to change my opinion.

[thaskalos]

To be clear, I am not saying he is totally devoid of stamina, but that he probably doesn't have as much stamina as horses with lower dosage indices and some proof of that is his final 2 furlong times in the KYD and Travers.

He won the Belmont while nearly walking the early fractions. So of course, given his quick turn of foot and having plenty of gas in the tank, he was able to win at 12 furlongs.

I'll admit, that if Frosted had not pressured him into running a sub 24 split from 4 furlongs to 6 furlongs, there is a possibility we would be having an entirely different conversation. And if Keen Ice had not been entered we also would be having a different conversation. But the facts are that AP ran a slow final 2 furlongs after having run moderate early fractions and Keen Ice beat him.

No doubt, AP is a terrific horse and a champion of his generation, but that does not make him a super horse, in my opinion. He still may improve with age and be competitive with the best older horses in the world. I hope so, but I am skeptical.

Other people disagree and think AP is a super horse. That's fine. But no one has shown me strong enough evidence to change my opinion.

You are a little late to the party. Your case against American Pharoah would have been more convincing if it was presented BEFORE the Travers. THAT'S when people considered the Pharoah to be a "super-horse".

[Kash$]

You are a little late to the party. Your case against American Pharoah would have been more convincing if it was presented BEFORE the Travers. THAT'S when people considered the Pharoah to be a "super-horse".

There was a thread AP vs Secretariat, bit too soon after the Belmont..

[highnote]

You are a little late to the party. Your case against American Pharoah would have been more convincing if it was presented BEFORE the Travers. THAT'S when people considered the Pharoah to be a "super-horse".


Pretty sure I presented my case during the TC races. Now, there is just more compelling evidence.

In any case, better late than never. :D

[raybo]

You are willing to anoint superhorse status on a horse that runs well in the 3 year old classics against his class, but finishes the final 2 furlongs in 26 and change and make excuses when he doesn't live up to your expectations. I am not.

That doesn't make you wrong, but I like to base my opinion on the evidence, not on what other people around the country say. If we listen to other people, we would assume it had been 3 weeks between the Haskell and the Travers, when in fact it was a day shy of 4 weeks.

Thanks for posting your bets, and congratulations on some good payouts!!

When did I ever "anoint superhorse status" to AP, or any other horse of this era? Never! I was one of those who vehemently rejected the idea that AP was even in the same realm as a Secretariat, or any of the other better horses from that era, in a previous thread here. Yes, he won the TC, and all his races before the Travers except his debut, but he has set no records and had never really run his best race except maybe the Derby, which was required to win, as is usually the case in any Derby. IMO, to be considered a "superhorse" one must display superior performances that span eras, not just the current one. The best way to do that is by setting new track records at major tracks. Others said that even setting new records was not required because today's surfaces are much slower than previous eras. I disagreed, but let them believe what they will.

As to basing opinion on evidence, that is exactly what I am basing my opinion of Saturday's race on, evidence that I saw during the running and after the running of that race. My evidence is just as valid as yours. Raw times are not very good evidence by the way. But, visually seeing AP urged as Frosted came alongside and AP not responding immediately, as he had in other races, tells me he was not the same horse, Saturday. It was obvious to me that he didn't have his previous game. Yes, he finally put Frosted away in the stretch, through sheer heart, but in previous races that would have happened much earlier, and much easier, and he would have certainly had more energy left in the final 1/8th, enough to beat KI rather handily. I have never seen AP come into the stretch and look physically tired and ungainly as he did in the Travers. In previous races he simply lengthened his stride and moved away from positional threats, he was unable to do that in this race. I'm not just making excuse for AP, I'm stating reason, as I saw it.

[highnote]

Thanks for posting your bets, and congratulations on some good payouts!!

When did I ever "anoint superhorse status" to AP, or any other horse of this era? Never! I was one of those who vehemently rejected the idea that AP was even in the same realm as a Secretariat, or any of the other better horses from that era, in a previous thread here. Yes, he won the TC, and all his races before the Travers except his debut, but he has set no records and had never really run his best race except maybe the Derby, which was required to win, as is usually the case in any Derby. IMO, to be considered a "superhorse" one must display superior performances that span eras, not just the current one. The best way to do that is by setting new track records at major tracks. Others said that even setting new records was not required because today's surfaces are much slower than previous eras. I disagreed, but let them believe what they will.

As to basing opinion on evidence, that is exactly what I am basing my opinion of Saturday's race on, evidence that I saw during the running and after the running of that race. My evidence is just as valid as yours. Raw times are not very good evidence by the way. But, visually seeing AP urged as Frosted came alongside and AP not responding immediately, as he had in other races, tells me he was not the same horse, Saturday. It was obvious to me that he didn't have his previous game. Yes, he finally put Frosted away in the stretch, through sheer heart, but in previous races that would have happened much earlier, and much easier, and he would have certainly had more energy left in the final 1/8th, enough to beat KI rather handily. I have never seen AP come into the stretch and look physically tired and ungainly as he did in the Travers. In previous races he simply lengthened his stride and moved away from positional threats, he was unable to do that in this race. I'm not just making excuse for AP, I'm stating reason, as I saw it.


Those are all valid points. I especially agree that raw times are not good evidence. Speed figures probably offer a better means of measuring.

I will compute my speed figures for his Travers and post it here. I have his figures from earlier races. It will be interesting to see how the Travers figures measure up.

[raybo]

Those are all valid points. I especially agree that raw times are not good evidence. Speed figures probably offer a better means of measuring.

I will compute my speed figures for his Travers and post it here. I have his figures from earlier races. It will be interesting to see how the Travers figures measure up.

I'm sure CJ already has those, if he will post them. Most here trust his figures much more than any of the others.

[PaceAdvantage]

I would never base it on one figure. I use more than that and do something similar. Mike actually uses a version of the spreadsheet I created (probably modified by now) and it uses multiple projections for each horse.Yup and yup. Yup I still do use the spreadsheet you created and yes I did modify it for my own needs.

I'm just a big ol cj fanboy... :p

[highnote]

I'm sure CJ already has those, if he will post them. Most here trust his figures much more than any of the others.

Sounds good.

In my own self-interest it's probably better I don't post mine. My figures are the one edge I have since no one else uses them. They may not be better than the figures of other figure makers, but since no one else uses mine they have some extra value.

I like betting against Beyer figures. His ratings look more like handicap ratings than speed figures because they have much less variance than mine. He probably makes a lot of projected variants. Mine are based strictly on class par times and daily variants.

Like I said, they may be less accurate, but what they lack in accuracy they make up in pari-mutuel value.

I rated Keen Ice closer to AP than Beyer. That was worth something. :)

[ronsmac]

You guys are gonna be all over me for this one... :lol:

(Fair Line | Value Line)

:2: American Pharoah (3-1 | 4-1)
:7: Keen Ice (3-1 | 4-1)
:6: Frosted (9-2 | 6-1)
:4: Texas Red (9-1 | 12-1)
:1: Upstart (10-1 | 13-1)

Yeah, I guess I have Keen Ice and AP as equals... :lol: :lol: :lol:

This is a very interesting race. It reminds me a lot of the Belmont Stakes pace setup. American Pharoah has a MONSTROUS edge in the early speed department. He should get the EASIEST of leads. NOBODY should be able to touch him early. He should WALK early, as easy as he pleases, just like the Belmont.

Much to EMD4ME's chagrin, NOBODY is going to be able to test AP early...it's just not possible, and anyone that thinks it will happen is delusional. AP is so superior early to this field, it's remarkable. (I know, a guy who has Keen Ice and AP ranked equal shouldn't be calling anyone delusional... :lol: )

With that being said, I hear Saratoga is a bit of a closer's track this year...Keen Ice is the best closer in a field packed with closers, which is the main reason why I have him ranked so highly.

Keen Ice is my main play here...and maybe Upstart if his odds hold to his morning line...

Given all things equal, American Pharoah should DOMINATE this field start to finish, so I expect to lose again while betting against this horse. I haven't seen such a dominant early pace scenario since the Belmont Stakes, and this one is even MORE SO. It's scary how TimeFormUS has this race so much in AP's pocket early on...if Espinoza doesn't screw up and AP doesn't go out there rank as the devil, he can't lose.

BUT, if this track does come up as favoring closers, it could get very messy for AP down the stretch...like I said, an interesting race at a mile and a quarter.Good call Pace. The joke is on me.

[HuggingTheRail]

Nicely done bossman!! :ThmbUp: