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cj
06-06-2004, 08:50 AM
Just a best guess, this is very tough with only one or two races run at this distance all year and no other two turn races at Belmont. But, studying all the other races and looking at the time of the Belmont, I think Birdstone should get no more than 100, probably high 90s.

Just another guess, but I think Beyer will assign a little higher, 105 or so, as a projection.

Pretty weak performance on that track. Smarty just isn't the same horse at that distance. The sad thing is, with a better trip, it probably would have been enough against these slugs.

highnote
06-06-2004, 11:03 AM
cj
That Beyer fig of 100-105 sounds about right. The track seemed pretty fast. One of the earlier 6f sprints was run in 108.04 with internal fractions for something like 23.2 and 43.

However, I wonder if the track was playing fair or maybe slow, but the horses were of top quality making the track seem fast when it actually wasn't?

Smarty went 10f in 200.52 in the Belmont. Not bad considering what his final times were in the Derby and Preakness.

I know people say Pimlico was slow on Preakness day and the day before, but still Smarty's Preakness time was slow. Makes me wonder if that 118 Beyer was a little high.

On the other hand, given that the Preakness is shorter and Smarty was probably very fit maybe a 118 is justifiable.

I don't make speed figs anymore so I'm just trying to make sense of all this.

cj
06-06-2004, 11:21 AM
I've learned enough about Pimlico to know I always knock 5 points off any 1 3/16 race there, automatic adjustment for me. That would leave a 113, which still would have destroyed this field. Either Smarty wasn't himself, or it was the distance, or the bad trip, or just worn out, whatever. He wasn't the same horse

highnote
06-06-2004, 11:33 AM
I think you're right, it was a combination of things.

I was on the rail at the KY Derby and in the grandstand for the Belmont. Smarty's coat was shinier in the Derby. He looked a little dull in the coat yesterday. His fitness had probably started to decline a little bit.

Birdstone skipped the Preakness. He was probably very fit yesterday. Zito is no slouch.

Valuist
06-06-2004, 11:36 AM
I would guess over on the 105. We really can't project anything for Birdstone. His race is the Derby was in slop, the Lane's End was in slop (despite what the pps say) and then he had an allowance win in which he was totally under wraps. There was still some pretty serious gappage, like there usually is in the Belmont. Royal Assault was third but he was way behind the top two. I'm guessing a 110.

cj
06-06-2004, 11:37 AM
My brother told me he saw a bunch of kidney sweat on Smarty before the race. Anyone else notice this? I didn't see it, but he knows what he is talking about. It certainly isn't a good sign.

To paraphrase him, he said Takach probably ran people over getting to the windows.

daylami
06-06-2004, 03:30 PM
hi it depends if smarty jones won he would get about a 112 since he lost and birdstone can't be shown to have jumped up to high it will get about a 105.

the fact of the matter is that the final beyer time doesn't take ito account pace, so when a race falls apart and they come home in 27 seconds the winner is credited with the high but false beyer.

last face it everyone knows smarty ran a superir race even though he lost.

mike

highnote
06-06-2004, 03:47 PM
Originally posted by daylami

last face it everyone knows smarty ran a superir race even though he lost.

mike

Mike,
Smarty ran a very good race.

He didn't run the superior race. He ran a superior race for 10 furlongs and maybe a little more, but not for 12 furlongs.

The winner ran the superior race. The goal is to win, not come second. Birdstone was the superior horse and ran the superior race on Saturday.

Of course, that's just my opinion.

andicap
06-06-2004, 03:52 PM
Originally posted by cjmilkowski
My brother told me he saw a bunch of kidney sweat on Smarty before the race. Anyone else notice this? I didn't see it, but he knows what he is talking about. It certainly isn't a good sign.

To paraphrase him, he said Takach probably ran people over getting to the windows.

Shows how good my eyeball skills are. I was looking at smarty on the track to see if he was washed out and couldn't see anything. Of course I was pretty far away and people kept jostling me!

In the papers today Elliot said the horse was RANK, kept puling him and didn't relax and that's why he ran such fast fractions.

I saw no reporters blame the jockey and Servis exonerated him.

I can't believe people will say it means SJ can't' get 12F. He beat all but one and was withing 1 lousy length after chasing fast fractions. The horse's he was chasing were nowhere at the finish.

Smarty ran a very very strong race. Of course Secretariet won by 31 lengths after pressing a 109.3, two seconds faster than SJ, but Secretariat was the greatest 3 yr old ever.

I salute a gutsy race by SJ after a long grueling campaign and hope he rests up to enter the Haskell, Travers, an Oct. prep and Breeders Cup.

When is the Pa. Derby? I assume he will enter that. Servis I think has said he will enter his home state's big race as a reward to the track and fans there. If he enters that race, that would scramble his other plans of course.

cj
06-06-2004, 03:57 PM
Pa Derby is Labor Day weekend if memory serves. Current plan is for that to be his return, then a race against older horses, then the BC Classic.

nomadpat
06-06-2004, 03:58 PM
I noticed that at the beginning of the race-the camera angle behind the horses before they went around the first turn. I didn't know if it would mean anything because I wasn't sure if he had this tendency in the past at all?

fiveouttasix
06-06-2004, 04:00 PM
The way I see it, If this just any old race and I'm studying the charts Smarty would be on my HTW list as the only pace horse still around at the finish and Birdstone would be on my bet against list as a perfect trip winner. So in my opinion as a gambler/horseplayer Smarty ran the superior race.

sam i am
06-06-2004, 04:00 PM
I think the Pennsylvania Derby (gr. III) is on Labor day I think that is Monday the 6th of September.

highnote
06-06-2004, 04:39 PM
Originally posted by fiveouttasix
The way I see it, If this just any old race and I'm studying the charts Smarty would be on my HTW list as the only pace horse still around at the finish and Birdstone would be on my bet against list as a perfect trip winner. So in my opinion as a gambler/horseplayer Smarty ran the superior race.

So, hypothetically speaking, if Smarty and Birdstone were entered in a 12 furlong race against the same competition in about 3 or 4 weeks, would you bet against Birdstone at 36-1 and bet on Smarty at 1/5?

fiveouttasix
06-06-2004, 04:48 PM
Absolutely not. But if Birdstone is sent off as the favorite in his next race I would probably play against him.

mikekk
06-06-2004, 05:32 PM
Originally posted by swetyejohn
So, hypothetically speaking, if Smarty and Birdstone were entered in a 12 furlong race against the same competition in about 3 or 4 weeks, would you bet against Birdstone at 36-1 and bet on Smarty at 1/5?

LOL! If Birdstone was to come back at 36-1 off yesterday's race as the last line in his PP I would want NO PART of him

Mikekk

daylami
06-06-2004, 06:19 PM
PLEASE EVERYONE IN HE WORLD KNOWS (OR SHOULD KNOW)THAT IF TWO HORSES RUN IDENTICAL TIME THE HORSE THAT CUTS THE PACE IN FAST FRACTIONS IS SUPERIOR TO THE HORSE THA RALLIES IN THELAST QUARTER MILE.

BUT THEN AGAIN THATS WHAT MAKES HORSE RACING AND THATS WHY SOME ARE WINNERS AND OTHERS AE LOSERS.

alysheba88
06-06-2004, 07:05 PM
Several of the races were run exceptionally fast, especially the sprints. Would be surprised if the Beyer was anything over 103.

As far as pace no speed figure should take that into consideration. Thats why you have pace figures.

highnote
06-06-2004, 07:48 PM
Originally posted by daylami
PLEASE EVERYONE IN HE WORLD KNOWS (OR SHOULD KNOW)THAT IF TWO HORSES RUN IDENTICAL TIME THE HORSE THAT CUTS THE PACE IN FAST FRACTIONS IS SUPERIOR TO THE HORSE THA RALLIES IN THELAST QUARTER MILE.

BUT THEN AGAIN THATS WHAT MAKES HORSE RACING AND THATS WHY SOME ARE WINNERS AND OTHERS AE LOSERS.

In the case of Smarty and Birdstone: Birdstone ran the faster time over 12 furlongs. The fact that Smarty cut faster fractions earlier in the race does mean her ran a superior race over 12 furlongs. Maybe Smarty was superior over 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May, but not over 12 furlongs on the first Saturday in June.

Turf2Dirt
06-06-2004, 08:12 PM
So, hypothetically speaking, if Smarty and Birdstone were entered in a 12 furlong race against the same competition in about 3 or 4 weeks, would you bet against Birdstone at 36-1 and bet on Smarty at 1/5?`

I absolutely would bet against Birdstone, I dont bet 1-5 shots, though

Milleruszk
06-06-2004, 08:14 PM
Originally posted by nomadpat
I noticed that at the beginning of the race-the camera angle behind the horses before they went around the first turn. I didn't know if it would mean anything because I wasn't sure if he had this tendency in the past at all?

I noticed the same thing and thought the same thing you did. I did not know if Smarty had exhibited this in the previous races but upon seeing the sweat my heart sank!

Tom

Turf2Dirt
06-06-2004, 08:14 PM
Originally posted by nomadpat
I noticed that at the beginning of the race-the camera angle behind the horses before they went around the first turn. I didn't know if it would mean anything because I wasn't sure if he had this tendency in the past at all?

SJ had a little, everybody in the field had some, RHT was absolutely dripping though

Its a good thing to look for, but SJ had what everybody else in the field had, not a reason to through him out

JustRalph
06-06-2004, 08:30 PM
Originally posted by swetyejohn
So, hypothetically speaking, if Smarty and Birdstone were entered in a 12 furlong race against the same competition in about 3 or 4 weeks, would you bet against Birdstone at 36-1 and bet on Smarty at 1/5?

Depends on who is riding Smarty................

Buckeye
06-06-2004, 08:45 PM
Just Ralph,
Who would you choose to ride him?
How about Julie?

JPinMaryland
06-06-2004, 11:08 PM
I agree w/ the other guy (Sweetey?) Beyer doesnt account for pace and that is really something that's important.

I still cant figure this race out, can I get some feedback? How did he lose this:

horsie was just out of gas in the final furlough?
Elliot didnt see Birdstone coming and didnt whip him enuf?
Smarty just doesnt like to rate?
some combination?

hey I need some feedback, I am still scratching my head.

Oh did anyone see Birdstone's actual trip? How wide did he take the last turn? I didnt catch it on the replay. thx.

Buckeye
06-06-2004, 11:13 PM
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/07/sports/sportsspecial/07horse.html

kenwoodallpromos
06-06-2004, 11:26 PM
All + SJ's pace is very predictable so other jockeys had a strategy.
SJ was: 9 wins; 9 post; opened 1-9; led after 9f.

JustRalph
06-06-2004, 11:26 PM
Originally posted by Buckeye
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/07/sports/sportsspecial/07horse.html

great link buckeye

I would say that about sums it up.............

highnote
06-07-2004, 12:00 AM
BIRDSTONE has a Dosage of 1.77.

He was the only dual qualifier in the field.

He was rated within 2 pounds of the highweight in the Experimental Free Handicap.

He was sired by Grindstone -- a Kentucky Derby winner.

It's no accident he won.

Gamesmanship may have played a part in Smarty's defeat, but no matter what happened early in the race, Birdstone would have been flying at the end.

JPinMaryland
06-07-2004, 12:37 AM
excellent article. Best explanation Ive seen. thx.

PaceAdvantage
06-07-2004, 10:37 AM
What was the gist of that NY Times link? It's asking me to register, I don't want to....LOL

And by the way, would you base Smarty's Beyer on him getting beat by Birdstone by a length, or by him beating the rest of the field by EIGHT lenghts????

Did all the other horses in the race die, or did Birdstone jump up? A preponderance of the evidence suggests the latter. I vote the Beyer will be OVER 103.....much over.

cj
06-07-2004, 11:14 AM
I'm a big believer in the Quirin method...add pace and speed to give you a total available. Deduct today's pace, and you have a pretty good estimate of a final figure for the speed horses.

Smarty's best was 230 in the Preakness, 222 in the Derby, and a bunch of 212s before that. I think he topped out in the Preakness and was not quite himself for the Belmont. So, I'd expect something along the lines of 215-220 for Smarty.

Now, with all the pressure, I'm assuming a fairly fast pace, though with very few 1 1/2 mile races to look at, I admit its just a guess. I'm going to approximate the pace around 117, which only leaves Smarty with a final figure of 98-103. That would give Birdstone a 99-104, still a pretty good jump for him, but not unreasonable. Throw in the wide paths both Smarty and Birdstone ran, and I'd have trouble believing they could run much faster than that.

BillW
06-07-2004, 11:54 AM
Originally posted by PaceAdvantage
What was the gist of that NY Times link? It's asking me to register, I don't want to....LOL



http://www.majcher.com/nytview.html

cj
06-07-2004, 06:26 PM
I still haven't seen the Beyer for the race, but it is less than 104. In the Best Beyers section of the DRF, many Beyers show up from the Belmont day card. But, in the 3yo, male or female section, there is nothing on the Belmont, and it goes all the way down to 104. It is updated through Sunday.

Tee
06-07-2004, 07:31 PM
My info says

101

Tom
06-07-2004, 09:17 PM
Originally posted by cjmilkowski
I'm a big believer in the Quirin method...add pace and speed to give you a total available. Deduct today's pace, and you have a pretty good estimate of a final figure for the speed horses.

Smarty's best was 230 in the Preakness, 222 in the Derby, and a bunch of 212s before that. I think he topped out in the Preakness and was not quite himself for the Belmont. So, I'd expect something along the lines of 215-220 for Smarty.

Now, with all the pressure, I'm assuming a fairly fast pace, though with very few 1 1/2 mile races to look at, I admit its just a guess. I'm going to approximate the pace around 117, which only leaves Smarty with a final figure of 98-103. That would give Birdstone a 99-104, still a pretty good jump for him, but not unreasonable. Throw in the wide paths both Smarty and Birdstone ran, and I'd have trouble believing they could run much faster than that.

Perfect example of what pace handicapping is all about-how much energy do you have to uses, how do you use it? It explains why the top fig horse gets beat by a much slower horse.
I odn't agree witht he perfect 1 to 1 relationship-If a horse runs early in 102-102 (Quirrin) and todays has to face a 106 pace, I think he will run less than 98. You just can't get a perfect number on it.
But the point is moot to me....no way did I make Birdbrain a contender for any analyis at all. Suc to be me! I'll let that race go and continue to throw out these slugs.

chickenhead
06-08-2004, 12:14 AM
Originally posted by Tom
Perfect example of what pace handicapping is all about-how much energy do you have to uses, how do you use it? It explains why the top fig horse gets beat by a much slower horse.
I odn't agree witht he perfect 1 to 1 relationship-If a horse runs early in 102-102 (Quirrin) and todays has to face a 106 pace, I think he will run less than 98. You just can't get a perfect number

I think this brings up something I have been thinking about a lot, most figures don't take into account the actual amount of energy it requires to reach a given speed. It's not a proportional thing, Energy=1/2(mass)(velocity^2)

So if horse A accelerates from 0 to 50FPS, and horse B accelerates from 0-60FPS, he's only running 20% faster, but it took 44% more energy to do it. Most pace charts or methods I've seen treat times as proportional (I think), but in energy I don't think they are. I could be wrong. To me this might answer why a lone speed horse is so tough to beat, he may run the same final time, but running soft fractions means he expended way less energy than he is used to. Inverse is true for a horse pushed through tough early fractions.

If I'm way off base someone please tell me. I know I am not taking a lot of other things into account.

cj
06-08-2004, 03:12 AM
Originally posted by Tom
Perfect example of what pace handicapping is all about-how much energy do you have to uses, how do you use it? It explains why the top fig horse gets beat by a much slower horse.
I odn't agree witht he perfect 1 to 1 relationship-If a horse runs early in 102-102 (Quirrin) and todays has to face a 106 pace, I think he will run less than 98. You just can't get a perfect number on it.
But the point is moot to me....no way did I make Birdbrain a contender for any analyis at all. Suc to be me! I'll let that race go and continue to throw out these slugs.

You are exactly right Tom, it is not a 1 to 1 relationship. The farther you move from the middle of the total for the pace, the bigger the ratio becomes for most horses. Also, if you go too slow, you can never go fast enough in the end to balance out the speed figure.

Many times, I'll see paceless races where horses consistently run in the 90s. Beyer will give the winner a 90, but when I do the figures, I'll get something like 60-80. They just went so slow it was impossible to finish fast enough to run there normal figure.

You will also see horses in the cheap races with numbers like 60-10...they are the toughest to figure. You have to have seen the race to know how much they were persevered with late. If they weren't at all, they tend to run much closer to the 60 under good circumstances. If they were, they just stink and will always quit regardless of the pace.

The point is, the wider the gap between pace and speed, the more the 1-to-1 relationship is distorted. Now that I've made you all ready for a nap, have a big cup of coffee :)!

cj
06-08-2004, 05:59 AM
Good info tee. I'm surprised they didn't make it higher, so I'll say I think Beyer did a good job on this one.

From DRF:

Birdstone received a Beyer Speed Figure of 101 for the Belmont, the highest of his career. Smarty Jones had run faster than that in his four previous races, ranging from a 107 in the Kentucky Derby and Arkansas Derby to a 118 in the Preakness.

OTM Al
06-08-2004, 09:18 AM
This has got to be one of the hardest figs to calculate considering the lack of 2-turn dirt races at Belmont. There is a factor though that I haven't seen anyone mention. Times went pretty fast on Belmont day and in fact they should have been. Belmont pumped up the purses in hopes of attracting the best fields possible. For example, NW1X allowance races had a purse of $53-55,000 whereas they usually sit in the $43-45,000 range. Top horses were attracted to all levels of races. For that reason, I take any Beyers coming out of Saturday as being slightly depressed by an overcalculation of the variant.

Jed
06-08-2004, 09:48 AM
Maybe Birdstone didn't make much of a jump at all, he did workout 8 days after the Derby and did have trouble in his last two.

Valuist
06-08-2004, 10:00 AM
I think the number is irrelevant because in all likliehood, none of these horses will ever run 12 furlongs on the main track. IMO, never use numbers more than 1 furlong different from today's distance.

JustMissed
06-08-2004, 11:58 AM
Originally posted by Valuist
I think the number is irrelevant because in all likliehood, none of these horses will ever run 12 furlongs on the main track. IMO, never use numbers more than 1 furlong different from today's distance.

Excellant comment and relevant observation.

Nice to see some 'common sense' handicapping at work.

JM:)

kenwoodallpromos
06-08-2004, 12:07 PM
It has been 3 days since the race. I am impatient or are they (Beyers) slow bringing out the figures? Seems like it.

kenwoodallpromos
06-08-2004, 11:26 PM
That is great news. Very fast variant= low Beyers+ high odds= big overlay for birdstone next out. If Beyers is smart he will trash + cash on Birdstone.
I do not think Birdstone deserves even a 101, and will not have a chance at a route against any speed next out. So nobody (but me) should bet BS next race, especially at decent odds.

PaceAdvantage
06-08-2004, 11:27 PM
Ken, it's already been posted that Birdstone got a 101 for the Belmont.

Kudos to CJ for nailing the figure. I was wrong. I thought it would be higher.....

This must leave Master David and RHT with Finger-Lakes quality figs for the Belmont, doesn't it? LOL