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View Full Version : Steve Haskins has his concerns about AP


Kash$
08-27-2015, 09:06 PM
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/93982/travers-stakes-high-anxiety?source=rss
My concerns with American Pharoah, as I mentioned in an earlier column, are the cross-country trip to Monmouth; needing an extra day to return to the track; a very fast seven-furlong work in 1:23 1/5 six days before the Travers; getting on a another plane three days later, stopping off in Lexington, Ky.; and then running a mile a quarter three days after that against a talented group of horses who have been racing and/or training over the track all summer and are bred to relish a mile and a quarter. And let’s hope his ear plugs don’t come loose as he makes that long walk through the gauntlet of noise he will encounter on his way to the paddock.

Not only was American Pharoah’s toughest race at a mile and a quarter, but a mile and a quarter at Saratoga is more taxing on a horse than at Churchill Downs. Setting the pace going that far at Saratoga is far more demanding than setting an easy pace going 1 1/2 miles at Belmont, where the horses behind you normally don’t have the closing kick they have going 10 furlongs at Saratoga. There is a reason why the Travers is rarely run in under 2:02, and no winner has ever broken 2:00. In addition, American Pharoah drew post 2, which means he most likely will be sent to the lead or wind up chasing a top-class horse like Upstart (if he runs), who is breaking from the rail. But most likely he will be on the lead unless something unforeseen happens, strategy-wise.

Hoofless_Wonder
08-27-2015, 10:11 PM
Reads like he's hoping to influence the crowd and get 1-5 on AP instead of 1-9..... ;)

LottaKash
08-27-2015, 10:14 PM
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/93982/travers-stakes-high-anxiety?source=rss
But most likely he will be on the lead unless something unforeseen happens, strategy-wise.

I should hope so...He is the "reigning 3yo champ", and that is his preferred winning style...(until further notice)

A good talking points piece I guess, but as I see it, it's just a before the fact an "I told you so" line... :D...

I remain a believer, all the same... :cool:

horses4courses
08-27-2015, 10:24 PM
It's a Saratoga thing.....upset special.

It's possible, but the horse will have to be completely off his game.

Robert Fischer
08-27-2015, 10:48 PM
He's the best horse I've ever seen, but that doesn't mean he can't lose tomorrow.

He may run 5 lengths the best of his top contenders, but if one of those contenders has a trip that is 5.5 lengths better, he'll lose.

castaway01
08-27-2015, 10:53 PM
He's the best horse I've ever seen, but that doesn't mean he can't lose tomorrow.

He may run 5 lengths the best of his top contenders, but if one of those contenders has a trip that is 5.5 lengths better, he'll lose.

What kind of trip would be 5.5 lengths worse than another contender---if he went out to the backyard to have a beer and then came back to finish the race? ;)

Robert Fischer
08-27-2015, 11:02 PM
What kind of trip would be 5.5 lengths worse than another contender---if he went out to the backyard to have a beer and then came back to finish the race? ;)

Doesn't happen often. You also don't have a lot of pace on paper(especially w/ likely scratch of Upstart).

Going too fast early on is probably the worst offender.

hmm...
"Stumbled start, Espinoza hesitates, Ny jocks box him in all race, frosted opens up a big comfortable lead..."
Unlikely. :p

More likely that he uses his 5lengths of ability advantage to get a better trip than his rivals...

EMD4ME
08-27-2015, 11:10 PM
Maybe Victor's shoulder gets seperated and he has to ride with 1 hand?

Does that make up 5.5 lengths?

No wait, AP will be on his own anyway in this race.

Cratos
08-27-2015, 11:13 PM
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/93982/travers-stakes-high-anxiety?source=rss
My concerns with American Pharoah, as I mentioned in an earlier column, are the cross-country trip to Monmouth; needing an extra day to return to the track; a very fast seven-furlong work in 1:23 1/5 six days before the Travers; getting on a another plane three days later, stopping off in Lexington, Ky.; and then running a mile a quarter three days after that against a talented group of horses who have been racing and/or training over the track all summer and are bred to relish a mile and a quarter. And let’s hope his ear plugs don’t come loose as he makes that long walk through the gauntlet of noise he will encounter on his way to the paddock.

Not only was American Pharoah’s toughest race at a mile and a quarter, but a mile and a quarter at Saratoga is more taxing on a horse than at Churchill Downs. Setting the pace going that far at Saratoga is far more demanding than setting an easy pace going 1 1/2 miles at Belmont, where the horses behind you normally don’t have the closing kick they have going 10 furlongs at Saratoga. There is a reason why the Travers is rarely run in under 2:02, and no winner has ever broken 2:00. In addition, American Pharoah drew post 2, which means he most likely will be sent to the lead or wind up chasing a top-class horse like Upstart (if he runs), who is breaking from the rail. But most likely he will be on the lead unless something unforeseen happens, strategy-wise.
Not unless I read the wrong PPs, American Pharaoh should win the Travers easily. In my opinion the two horses that appear to be competitive are Texas Red (not season enough) and Frosted (not enough speed).

Stillriledup
08-27-2015, 11:17 PM
Victor Espinoza is an expert at the nuances of Saratoga he's ridden thousands of.....oh never mind.

Last time he (AP) was in a mile and a quarter race he was beaten to a pulp to win by a length,

Proceed accordingly.

RacingFan1992
08-27-2015, 11:47 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxC-Sd7kT4g

Thought I would post the track record performance of General Assembly in the 1979 Travers. The son of Secretariat beat a field in the slop which included Davona Dale who won the Oaks, Black-Eyed Susan, Acorn, Mother Goose, CCAO and a 2nd in the Alabama a week prior to the Travers which was won by It's In The Air owned by Harbor View Farm. Enjoy.

SandyW
08-28-2015, 12:34 AM
I think there will be plenty of races at SAR on Sat. to make some series cash.
Good handicapping everybody.

clocker7
08-28-2015, 01:57 AM
This class is substandard. AP isn't going to face anything challenging.

NY BRED
08-28-2015, 07:06 AM
based on his post AP should be the controlling speed, IF Victor
chooses to leave early.

Obviously Upstart will leave early, and I expect Frosted to run closer
to the pace.

Texas Red will probably be positioned fifth/.fourth./make one move.

This all said, AP should win easily given a sensible pace and no
rough riding from the usual suspects.

upset special: King of NY, trained by Ken M who gave us Sarava :cool: :cool:

Grits
08-28-2015, 07:32 AM
McPeek?

Not at 26-0-1-3.

His Marriott rewards nights would have served him better, elsewhere.

burnsy
08-28-2015, 07:45 AM
Put it this way, AP is the best horse in this race. But then again how many people thought VE Day could beat Bayern? Golden Ticket dead heat Alpha? 10 furlongs at Saratoga is a quirky deal sometimes and this track has history of these kinds of horses getting beat....Upset, Jim Dandy, Onion.....he should win, on paper its a slam dunk. This surface is not paper.

chadk66
08-28-2015, 08:36 AM
The discussion should be whether he sees the stick or not

burnsy
08-28-2015, 09:28 AM
The discussion should be whether he sees the stick or not

He should maybe see it, shown it, but not feel it. If he feels it, its probably a horse race.........then, its Saratoga....game on......

Tom
08-28-2015, 10:13 AM
Reads to me like Steve had more concerns about meeting his deadline.

And let’s hope his ear plugs don’t come loose as he makes that long walk through the gauntlet of noise he will encounter on his way to the paddock.

And let's hope one the trees doesn't topple over onto him, or a sink hole develop and swallow him up. Or a deer come out of the woods and get in his way, or the starting gate door fails to open. :rolleyes:

burnsy
08-28-2015, 10:17 AM
Pharoah pics courtesy of a friend of mine hope this works I suck at it. Fresh from this am folks!



https://scontent-lga1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xlp1/v/t1.0-9/s280x280/11951776_1207707515912174_6026448260875763967_n.jp g?oh=9f349080b6b988c4d0df00dd7b3fdc49&oe=56821BDD

https://scontent-lga1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpt1/v/t1.0-9/11885385_1207707495912176_4145195946371562941_n.jp g?oh=455e256dc6b70dec6146b67858ae38f6&oe=5678C508

https://scontent-lga1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xlp1/v/t1.0-9/11951776_1207707515912174_6026448260875763967_n.jp g?oh=201e65ec19a2c2cf9a1f7f12903b5399&oe=56808026

Tom
08-28-2015, 10:20 AM
Thanks, burnsy!

Stillriledup
08-28-2015, 11:38 AM
The discussion should be whether he sees the stick or not

Ill be betting against him even though I feel that he's the most likely winner.

burnsy
08-28-2015, 11:46 AM
Thanks, burnsy!

No problem Tom, glad you enjoyed :ThmbUp:

nijinski
08-28-2015, 02:58 PM
I wish the well traveled AP good luck and a safe trip . I wasn't thrilled with him making another big trip but Bafferts knows best and I believe the younger Zayat has Spa fever lol . Too many quirky results up there in the mountain airs it seems many an outclassed horse has a wake up race and throws a once in a lifetime best. I hope all who get to see him , witness the AP we've seen all season . I also hope there is no other horse like Onion who made history at the " graveyard of favorites " . these were some of the reasons for the write up , we can't deny them .Hopes for the best horse , Pharoah to have a grand victory once again !

DeltaLover
08-28-2015, 03:17 PM
I believe that any other result other than a victory, will be a major failure for AP and all the arguments about intensive travelling and the Travers been so hard of a race are going to simply be excuses for an unexplainable failure..

whodoyoulike
08-28-2015, 05:44 PM
Ill be betting against him even though I feel that he's the most likely winner.

At what odds would AP have to be before you bet on him?

And, at what minimum odds would it take to bet on another?

Stillriledup
08-28-2015, 05:58 PM
At what odds would AP have to be before you bet on him?

And, at what minimum odds would it take to bet on another?

Good question.

Assuming ap passes my eye test and I like his warmup, I would need 3-5 to consider playing him. If he's 3-5 ill prob pass the race though.
My play will be centered around beating him in the exa and tri, I'm not looking to Make a win bet on someone. I'm betting small on race it's not like I'm sending In a large bet.

nijinski
08-28-2015, 07:06 PM
I believe that any other result other than a victory, will be a major failure for AP and all the arguments about intensive travelling and the Travers been so hard of a race are going to simply be excuses for an unexplainable failure..
I think his connections would take a beating for a loss but I'm hoping no one will have too.

Tom
08-28-2015, 07:12 PM
The great ones get beat when you don't expect it.
He showed up, win or lose, champions do it on the track, not hiding in their stalls.

MONEY
08-28-2015, 07:26 PM
I'm trying a Pick3 & Pick4 ending with American Pharoah.
Today's 5th race P3 at Saratoga paid $229.25 for a buck.
The winner paid $2.60 & the two races before had only 5 & 7 horses.

Tape Reader
08-28-2015, 08:09 PM
Is American Pharoha a “bridge jumping” candidate? Not rooting, just asking.

Redboard
08-28-2015, 09:28 PM
Win, lose or draw, I don’t see how anybody could criticize Zayat for this move. This is the race that most fans wanted to see, at least, according to the poll that was run here a few weeks ago. Saratoga is still the crown jewel of the sport, and it is fitting that the Triple Crown winner make an appearance. Dick Jeradi mentioned in his column today that Coolmore had made a big offer to the owner to retire AP now. I can see their point, they probably have 100 mares booked for next year at $200k a pop. Why risk anything? It's a tribute to Zayat that he turned it down for the fans.

MutuelClerk
08-28-2015, 10:13 PM
Don't like Zayat at all but I agree. I hope AP wins easy just like the Haskell. I'm betting against in the Classic. Nice pics Burnsy. I especially like the last one. Well done.

reckless
08-29-2015, 05:44 AM
I will cheering for an AP win because I am really hoping for an American Pharoah vs. Honor Code face-off in the Breeders Cup Classic. Throw in a Beholder and this great web site will be lights out! in the discussion threads.

But, as a player this afternoon, I will make a very large exacta AP on top of Texas Red, and a smaller saver bet putting Texas Red on top, just in case.

There might even be some value here going all in on one AP-Texas Red play because there might be many wheel and near-wheel bets by the tourists and the millennial crowd. I also think that there will be too, too many AP over Frosted and Keen Ice combos creating underlays with those two.

If I am right, it might turn a straight 2-5 American Pharoah into a 6-1, 8-1 payoff. If I am wrong about Texas Red, well... I'll go down swinging anyway. :)

Good luck every one and enjoy.

gracwalk
08-29-2015, 07:37 AM
As of this morning Upstart, will not be scratched he will race in the Travers.

Stillriledup
08-29-2015, 08:37 AM
Is American Pharoha a “bridge jumping” candidate? Not rooting, just asking.

The pools will be so big that all the other runners will have a LOT of show money, so even if AP has a million to show, the other main contenders will have so much money that the prices (should AP be off the board) won't be huge. Personally I would never recommend a show bet on him due to the valuable nature of the horse, if he's 'beaten' in midstretch, I wouldn't expect this specific jock to beat the tar out of him to hold 3rd. Also, he's a calif shipper who hasn't ever raced or trained on this track (not to mention the jock rarely rides here either) when you are taking 2.10 you need EVERYTHING going for you, not just most things.

Tape Reader
08-29-2015, 10:56 AM
The pools will be so big that all the other runners will have a LOT of show money, so even if AP has a million to show, the other main contenders will have so much money that the prices (should AP be off the board) won't be huge. Personally I would never recommend a show bet on him due to the valuable nature of the horse, if he's 'beaten' in midstretch, I wouldn't expect this specific jock to beat the tar out of him to hold 3rd. Also, he's a calif shipper who hasn't ever raced or trained on this track (not to mention the jock rarely rides here either) when you are taking 2.10 you need EVERYTHING going for you, not just most things.

Good answer. Thank you.

burnsy
08-29-2015, 12:44 PM
AP Listed one aluminum pad on per NYRA.com

https://www.nyra.com/saratoga/changes/

RXB
08-29-2015, 12:53 PM
He's been wearing that plate for months on the foot that was injured in October.

burnsy
08-29-2015, 01:20 PM
He's been wearing that plate for months on the foot that was injured in October.

Thanks RXB, that's what I was wondering. I knew someone here would know.

Kash$
08-29-2015, 05:33 PM
American Pharoah has broken a step slow a couple of times...That maybe the only concern..

Stillriledup
08-29-2015, 05:37 PM
Crazy amount of show money against AP. if it comes in 469 and you have the 9 to show, you're getting 5 bucks not 50 like you should.

EMD4ME
08-29-2015, 05:39 PM
American Pharoah has broken a step slow a couple of times...That maybe the only concern..

You are correct sir. That is a concern.

They souped up the track right before race 8. If he loses, which he won't, there will be no excuse.

He'll probably run under 2:00 minutes on this track.

Kash$
08-29-2015, 05:41 PM
You are correct sir. That is a concern.

They souped up the track right before race 8. If he loses, which he won't, there will be no excuse.

He'll probably run under 2:00 minutes on this track.

Im a sucker..im buying Texas Red..

If he loses he wont hit the board there will be no photo with AP..Photo maybe with two other horses but not AP..

Hes he only speed Texas Red will chase

Kash$
08-29-2015, 05:48 PM
Saw the start ripped up my tix

Kash$
08-29-2015, 06:29 PM
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/93982/travers-stakes-high-anxiety?source=rss
My concerns with American Pharoah, as I mentioned in an earlier column, are the cross-country trip to Monmouth; needing an extra day to return to the track; a very fast seven-furlong work in 1:23 1/5 six days before the Travers; getting on a another plane three days later, stopping off in Lexington, Ky.; and then running a mile a quarter three days after that against a talented group of horses who have been racing and/or training over the track all summer and are bred to relish a mile and a quarter. And let’s hope his ear plugs don’t come loose as he makes that long walk through the gauntlet of noise he will encounter on his way to the paddock.

Not only was American Pharoah’s toughest race at a mile and a quarter, but a mile and a quarter at Saratoga is more taxing on a horse than at Churchill Downs. Setting the pace going that far at Saratoga is far more demanding than setting an easy pace going 1 1/2 miles at Belmont, where the horses behind you normally don’t have the closing kick they have going 10 furlongs at Saratoga. There is a reason why the Travers is rarely run in under 2:02, and no winner has ever broken 2:00. In addition, American Pharoah drew post 2, which means he most likely will be sent to the lead or wind up chasing a top-class horse like Upstart (if he runs), who is breaking from the rail. But most likely he will be on the lead unless something unforeseen happens, strategy-wise.

Was Haskin right?

burnsy
08-29-2015, 10:24 PM
Good question.

Assuming ap passes my eye test and I like his warmup, I would need 3-5 to consider playing him. If he's 3-5 ill prob pass the race though.
My play will be centered around beating him in the exa and tri, I'm not looking to Make a win bet on someone. I'm betting small on race it's not like I'm sending In a large bet.


....and some of these guys say you don't know what you are talking about...... :ThmbUp: I love that move......