View Full Version : American Pharoah PP2
Kash$
08-25-2015, 08:56 PM
Draws post 2
Zayat rather have drawn outside due to the rail being tiring...
This is what we have at TimeformUS for bias ratings. We don't do inside/outside, just speed closer:
Track Day Color
SAR 07/24/2015 Lt Blue
SAR 07/25/2015 Lt Blue
SAR 07/26/2015 Red
SAR 08/03/2015 Pink
SAR 08/08/2015 Blue
SAR 08/09/2015 Red
SAR 08/12/2015 Lt Blue
SAR 08/15/2015 Blue
SAR 08/16/2015 Lt Blue
SAR 08/17/2015 Red
SAR 08/23/2015 Blue
SAR 08/24/2015 Blue
Key:
Red - Speed+
Pink - Speed
Lt Blue - Closers
Blue - Closers +
RacingFan1992
08-26-2015, 12:24 AM
Draws post 2
Zayat rather have drawn outside due to the rail being tiring...
Maybe that's a chink in the armor. ;)
Kash$
08-26-2015, 06:44 AM
This is what we have at TimeformUS for bias ratings. We don't do inside/outside, just speed closer:
Track Day Color
SAR 07/24/2015 Lt Blue
SAR 07/25/2015 Lt Blue
SAR 07/26/2015 Red
SAR 08/03/2015 Pink
SAR 08/08/2015 Blue
SAR 08/09/2015 Red
SAR 08/12/2015 Lt Blue
SAR 08/15/2015 Blue
SAR 08/16/2015 Lt Blue
SAR 08/17/2015 Red
SAR 08/23/2015 Blue
SAR 08/24/2015 Blue
Key:
Red - Speed+
Pink - Speed
Lt Blue - Closers
Blue - Closers +
CJ is inside/Outside just as important?Will TimeformUS add a feature indicating Ins/Out?
Maybe someday when data is really available.
EMD4ME
08-26-2015, 07:54 AM
Maybe someday when data is really available.
Can you hire me ? :lol: :lol: :lol:
I'd love to quit my real job :D
Can you hire me ? :lol: :lol: :lol:
I'd love to quit my real job :D
Someday :)
To clarify, obviously we can watch races and make judgements, but there would have to be a mechanical way to do it like we do speed/closers. There are just too many tracks running and subjective doesn't cut it.
Fager Fan
08-26-2015, 10:31 AM
Clearly there is subjectivity in TF else those two races wouldn't be considered equal. There is no way that Beholders race wasn't superior, and every respected American figure maker has it as such.
Clearly there is subjectivity in TF else those two races wouldn't be considered equal. There is no way that Beholders race wasn't superior, and every respected American figure maker has it as such.
One thing I can assure you is that the names don't mean a damn thing when I make figures. On final time, which is what the other figure makers are reporting, I do have Beholder faster. But we don't just do final time. Clearly you don't know what you are talking about.
At least I don't have Materiality as the fastest 3yo in American still...ROFL.
Apparently Souper Lucky is also a faster horse than American Pharoah. Tonalist too. And Constituation. And Lea! Commissioner, Race Day and Sir Quisqueyano are his equal. People must be making a killing betting against such a slow horse.
classhandicapper
08-26-2015, 10:51 AM
I'm in the process of doing my bias work for last week now. Either way, I like the idea of Zayat taking about bias. That's what I would do. These premier races should not be heavily influenced by biases. We've seen way too many of them around the country in the last couple of years where the track was a major factor.
The maintenance crews don't have perfect control, but if they are competent they should be watching the track all this week and making adjustments if necessary.
I'm a purist. I want to see the best horse win these big races. It's 40 years since I started playing this game and I still remember big races that were decided by bias. It has kind of distorted the historical record because the younger sharpies of today form opinions based on the PPs without knowing what actually happened in many of those races.
Grits
08-26-2015, 11:06 AM
One thing I can assure you is that the names don't mean a damn thing when I make figures. On final time, which is what the other figure makers are reporting, I do have Beholder faster. But we don't just do final time. Clearly you don't know what you are talking about.
There's confusion going on about your numbers for these two horses. Tom noted what I had posted yesterday. The quote from TFUS, and your quote, both on Twitter, stated 131. Too, TVG states you gave Beholder the highest figure of the year? I don't want to have shared information, here, that isn't correct. If I did so, I'm sorry, gentlemen.
There's confusion going on about your numbers for these two horses. Tom noted what I had posted yesterday. The quote from TFUS, and your quote, both on Twitter, stated 131. Too, TVG states you gave Beholder the highest figure of the year? I don't want to have shared information, here, that isn't correct. If I did so, I'm sorry, gentlemen.
I've said all along both ran 131 in there last starts. It is a "co-top" of 2015. I've attached an image showing both.
Keep in mind, if these horses were to meet int he Classic they would not show the same due to weight. Beholder would be picking up four pounds and thus show a lower figure, probably 129. American Pharoah would be staying the same as the Haskell and thus remain at 131. Users have the option to turn off weight adjustments if they choose.
Robert Fischer
08-26-2015, 11:24 AM
Inner-outer path bias is one of those things where you will see a variety of opinions.
Fager Fan
08-26-2015, 01:19 PM
One thing I can assure you is that the names don't mean a damn thing when I make figures. On final time, which is what the other figure makers are reporting, I do have Beholder faster. But we don't just do final time. Clearly you don't know what you are talking about.
Perhaps you'd like to share your math then to show how you came to the conclusion that AP's Haskell was as good as Beholder's PC? And no, other figure makers don't look at only final time, but they don't seem to be as subjective as you because you're the only one who has his numbers as being highest/best going into the PC (and now co-highest).
At least I don't have Materiality as the fastest 3yo in American still...ROFL.
Apparently Souper Lucky is also a faster horse than American Pharoah. Tonalist too. And Constituation. And Lea! Commissioner, Race Day and Sir Quisqueyano are his equal. People must be making a killing betting against such a slow horse.
You think Beyer numbers determine who is "equal" or best? They do determine who raced faster on a given day over a given surface, and there's not really much to laugh at about that unless one's a novice and not understanding how Materiality or another horse can run a larger Beyer than AP.
Perhaps you'd like to share your math then to show how you came to the conclusion that AP's Haskell was as good as Beholder's PC? And no, other figure makers don't look at only final time, but they don't seem to be as subjective as you because you're the only one who has his numbers as being highest/best going into the PC (and now co-highest).
You think Beyer numbers determine who is "equal" or best? They do determine who raced faster on a given day over a given surface, and there's not really much to laugh at about that unless one's a novice and not understanding how Materiality or another horse can run a larger Beyer than AP.
Of course I'm not going to share my math. Other figure makers are mostly final time based, with some allowance for weight and ground loss in a few cases. But those like Equibase, Beyer, and BRIS are final time. I was just saying if you want to compare apples to apples, our final time figures are a better barometer. None of the others account for pace in an overall number.
What is the point of measuring speed if you can't use it to say which is faster? Sure, that isn't the be all and end all of handicapping, not even close. But anyone thinking that Materiality's best is faster than American Pharoah's best on any day on any track is delusional. When they faced each other Material couldn't warm him up, let alone compete with him.
Fager Fan
08-26-2015, 02:08 PM
What is the point of measuring speed if you can't use it to say which is faster? Sure, that isn't the be all and end all of handicapping, not even close. But anyone thinking that Materiality's best is faster than American Pharoah's best on any day on any track is delusional. When they faced each other Material couldn't warm him up, let alone compete with him.
The point is having an objective measure. Beyer, Ragozin and TG are ultimately objective measures, and none have AP recording the best figure for this year. A class rating may have AP on top, but it's subjective.
They are no more objective than I am. I'm not doing class ratings. They are time based, period. We basically agree on final time yet I'm subjective and they aren't? That makes sense. I actually have Beholder's final time faster than American Pharoah more than Beyer does.
You really don't get what I'm trying to say, so I'll move on.
Fager Fan
08-26-2015, 02:25 PM
They are no more objective than I am. I'm not doing class ratings. They are time based, period. We basically agree on final time yet I'm subjective and they aren't? That makes sense. I actually have Beholder's final time faster than American Pharoah more than Beyer does.
You really don't get what I'm trying to say, so I'll move on.
I get what you're saying, but you're not saying how you arrived at your figures. What am I or anyone else supposed to do with that? What objective measure(s) did you use that Beyer, TG and Ragozin didn't use that can help us understand why you are the lone one having these figures while the other three are in line with each other?
thaskalos
08-26-2015, 02:30 PM
They are no more objective than I am. I'm not doing class ratings. They are time based, period. We basically agree on final time yet I'm subjective and they aren't? That makes sense. I actually have Beholder's final time faster than American Pharoah more than Beyer does.
You really don't get what I'm trying to say, so I'll move on.
CJ...may I ask you a question that I don't remember if I've seen you answer before?
The Beyer group will go back and change a prior figure if they think that a "mistake" had been made...and it occurs to me that these types of "mistakes" might be even more common in the adjustments that you make in order to convert these "speed figures" into the more desirable "performance ratings" that you have wisely chosen to create. Do you go back and correct these mistakes when you identify them?
AndyC
08-26-2015, 02:48 PM
The point is having an objective measure. Beyer, Ragozin and TG are ultimately objective measures, and none have AP recording the best figure for this year. A class rating may have AP on top, but it's subjective.
The only thing objective in the entire process is the time of the race. From an objective beginning subjective measures are used to create the number or rating.
thaskalos
08-26-2015, 02:56 PM
The only thing objective in the entire process is the time of the race. From an objective beginning subjective measures are used to create the number or rating.
Yes...but when this already subjective speed figure is further enhanced in order to be converted into a "performance rating"...then it becomes even MORE "subjective"...no?
AndyC
08-26-2015, 03:08 PM
Yes...but when this already subjective speed figure is further enhanced in order to be converted into a "performance rating"...then it becomes even MORE "subjective"...no?
It would be difficult to quantify which process was more subjective than another. One speed figure can have more subjective measures than another. The sheets adjust for weight and ground loss, for example.
thaskalos
08-26-2015, 03:14 PM
It would be difficult to quantify which process was more subjective than another. One speed figure can have more subjective measures than another. The sheets adjust for weight and ground loss, for example.
I'm not talking about the sheets...because they aren't "pure speed figures". Let's take the Beyer figures. If you were to take the Beyer figures, and tried to infuse the effects of pace into them...wouldn't an added dose of "subjectivity" be required for the endeavor?
Fager Fan
08-26-2015, 03:14 PM
The only thing objective in the entire process is the time of the race. From an objective beginning subjective measures are used to create the number or rating.
Yes and no. The variant is probably most subjective, but weights and ground loss are less subjective. When formulas are used, at least there is an attempt at objectivity. I can't figure any measure which TF can be using that isn't entirely subjective to have him top-ranked after the Belmont and TFUS having AP's Haskell equal to Beholder's PC.
AndyC
08-26-2015, 03:39 PM
I'm not talking about the sheets...because they aren't "pure speed figures". Let's take the Beyer figures. If you were to take the Beyer figures, and tried to infuse the effects of pace into them...wouldn't an added dose of "subjectivity" be required for the endeavor?
What is a pure speed figure? Who can say for sure the level of subjectivity that goes into each Beyer number? Which ones use projections? Which ones adjust for class?
In the end, I don't care how much subjectivity there is in the process. I only care that the subjectivity adds to the usefulness of the figure derived.
AndyC
08-26-2015, 03:51 PM
Yes and no. The variant is probably most subjective, but weights and ground loss are less subjective. When formulas are used, at least there is an attempt at objectivity. I can't figure any measure which TF can be using that isn't entirely subjective to have him top-ranked after the Belmont and TFUS having AP's Haskell equal to Beholder's PC.
The affect of weight and ground loss are far from an exact science.
Don't try to figure what TF measures or uses. If you don't like them don't use the numbers. If the numbers are bad bet against them and benefit by your knowledge.
Fager Fan
08-26-2015, 04:31 PM
The affect of weight and ground loss are far from an exact science.
Don't try to figure what TF measures or uses. If you don't like them don't use the numbers. If the numbers are bad bet against them and benefit by your knowledge.
Nothing in racing is an exact science, but that doesn't mean that figures can't be as objective as humanly possible. I have stated that the TF figures look very much like class ratings, and I was told by CJ that they are not, hence the reason why we're having the current conversation.
thaskalos
08-26-2015, 04:37 PM
The affect of weight and ground loss are far from an exact science.
Don't try to figure what TF measures or uses. If you don't like them don't use the numbers. If the numbers are bad bet against them and benefit by your knowledge.
What do you do if you like them...but you just want to understand them a little better? Is it wrong to ask for Cj's opinion on why the Haskell rating is the equivalent of that of the Pacific Classic? Cj can keep his opinions to himself, of course...but you are making it sound as if the question shouldn't even be ASKED.
AndyC
08-26-2015, 05:21 PM
What do you do if you like them...but you just want to understand them a little better? Is it wrong to ask for Cj's opinion on why the Haskell rating is the equivalent of that of the Pacific Classic? Cj can keep his opinions to himself, of course...but you are making it sound as if the question shouldn't even be ASKED.
The question wasn't asked. The following statement certainly appears to be one of ridicule and not one seeking clarification: "Clearly there is subjectivity in TF else those two races wouldn't be considered equal. There is no way that Beholders race wasn't superior, and every respected American figure maker has it as such."
thaskalos
08-26-2015, 05:27 PM
The question wasn't asked. The following statement certainly appears to be one of ridicule and not one seeking clarification: "Clearly there is subjectivity in TF else those two races wouldn't be considered equal. There is no way that Beholders race wasn't superior, and every respected American figure maker has it as such."
Sorry...I missed that. You are right...that's not a question; it's a condescending comment. :ThmbDown:
Fager Fan
08-26-2015, 05:43 PM
The question wasn't asked. The following statement certainly appears to be one of ridicule and not one seeking clarification: "Clearly there is subjectivity in TF else those two races wouldn't be considered equal. There is no way that Beholders race wasn't superior, and every respected American figure maker has it as such."
No offense meant. TFUS is too young to qualify as of yet, which is why I stated "American". Surely you don't suggest that TFUS has earned yet the respect and readership and customers that we see of Beyer, Ragozin and Thorograph, do you?
I don't know all the parties to this site, though clearly it's being used to advertise/further TFUS. I didn't realize that means one can't question those figures.
AndyC
08-26-2015, 06:01 PM
No offense meant. TFUS is too young to qualify as of yet, which is why I stated "American". Surely you don't suggest that TFUS has earned yet the respect and readership and customers that we see of Beyer, Ragozin and Thorograph, do you?
I don't know all the parties to this site, though clearly it's being used to advertise/further TFUS. I didn't realize that means one can't question those figures.
Whether you think TFUS has earned respect is your business. To disrespect someone because you happen to disagree with their opinion is a bit childish, don't you think?
Fager Fan
08-26-2015, 06:08 PM
Whether you think TFUS has earned respect is your business. To disrespect someone because you happen to disagree with their opinion is a bit childish, don't you think?
No. It's a fact. Trainers and owners and others use Ragozin (mostly) but also TG , Beyer and others. This discussion isn't about whose child is cutest. A business such as TF/US I'm sure is professional and adult enough to handle the scrutiny and questions about their product.
AndyC
08-26-2015, 06:25 PM
No. It's a fact. Trainers and owners and others use Ragozin (mostly) but also TG , Beyer and others. This discussion isn't about whose child is cutest. A business such as TF/US I'm sure is professional and adult enough to handle the scrutiny and questions about their product.
If all roads led to the same destination there would be no need for any new roads. You assumed that TFUS was incorrect because their road ended at a different destination than the roads you travel. Not sure what your agenda is but I'm pretty sure it is not to be enlightened by the methods used by TFUS.
Fager Fan
08-26-2015, 06:49 PM
If all roads led to the same destination there would be no need for any new roads. You assumed that TFUS was incorrect because their road ended at a different destination than the roads you travel. Not sure what your agenda is but I'm pretty sure it is not to be enlightened by the methods used by TFUS.
TF in Europe is clearly a class rating. If TFUS uses none of the methodology of TF, then why is it even under the same banner? I have stated twice that TF/US appears to be a class rating and both times refuted by CJ, hence the discussion. I don't know why this makes you go into Cujo mode.
AndyC
08-26-2015, 07:17 PM
TF in Europe is clearly a class rating. If TFUS uses none of the methodology of TF, then why is it even under the same banner? I have stated twice that TF/US appears to be a class rating and both times refuted by CJ, hence the discussion. I don't know why this makes you go into Cujo mode.
Let me get this correct. You asked him once about TFUS being a class rating and he said NO and then you asked him a second time? Did you expect a different answer or were you just trying to be difficult? A discussion is defined as an exchange of ideas. I missed that part in your postings.
Fager Fan
08-26-2015, 08:06 PM
Let me get this correct. You asked him once about TFUS being a class rating and he said NO and then you asked him a second time? Did you expect a different answer or were you just trying to be difficult? A discussion is defined as an exchange of ideas. I missed that part in your postings.
When someone says a duck isn't a duck, it doesn't mean I believe it's not a duck. Particularly when the person says he won't say why it's not a duck.
I believe CJ also unwittingly bolstered my argument when he scoffed at the Beyers recorded this year and asked what the point is when a number doesn't denote who is fastest/best. That Beyers or other figures don't always point at the fastest/best horse proves there is more objectivity than subjectivity in the numbers.
Yes and no. The variant is probably most subjective, but weights and ground loss are less subjective. When formulas are used, at least there is an attempt at objectivity. I can't figure any measure which TF can be using that isn't entirely subjective to have him top-ranked after the Belmont and TFUS having AP's Haskell equal to Beholder's PC.
The clock is the measure. Sure, there is always subjectivity in making a variant. That goes for anyone. But there is no subjectivity in the adjustment for pace. It is not subject to tinkering. It varies by surface and distance but never race to race.
As for not "figure any measure," Beholder ran a 114 Beyer to AP's 109, which is about 3 lengths. On final time, Beholder ran a 131 TimeformUS to a 127 for American Pharoah. There is basically no difference.
If you don't believe in pace being factored in, you can ignore that part of the TimeformUS figures. The final time is there for all to see. But I wouldn't recommend it, it has been tested and it is better betting wise. It has the same winning percentage as final time only and a better ROI.
Sorry...I missed that. You are right...that's not a question; it's a condescending comment. :ThmbDown:
I'm a little testy these days, I try not to be. But when people give me shit and don't know what they are talking about it can grate on you.
thaskalos
08-26-2015, 09:59 PM
The clock is the measure. Sure, there is always subjectivity in making a variant. That goes for anyone. But there is no subjectivity in the adjustment for pace. It is not subject to tinkering. It varies by surface and distance but never race to race.
As for not "figure any measure," Beholder ran a 114 Beyer to AP's 109, which is about 3 lengths. On final time, Beholder ran a 131 TimeformUS to a 127 for American Pharoah. There is basically no difference.
If you don't believe in pace being factored in, you can ignore that part of the TimeformUS figures. The final time is there for all to see. But I wouldn't recommend it, it has been tested and it is better betting wise. It has the same winning percentage as final time only and a better ROI.
Cj...do your speed figures take into account the apparent ease with which the horse wins a particular race? What I mean is...do you enhance the figure if you see the horse being wrapped up at the end of a race...the way the Pharoah was in the Haskell?
No offense meant. TFUS is too young to qualify as of yet, which is why I stated "American". Surely you don't suggest that TFUS has earned yet the respect and readership and customers that we see of Beyer, Ragozin and Thorograph, do you?
I don't know all the parties to this site, though clearly it's being used to advertise/further TFUS. I didn't realize that means one can't question those figures.
Of course you can question the figures. But what happened to civility?
TFUS is fairly new, but before that the same methods I use there were used at PaceFigures.com and have a great reputation. Yes, this board helped with that a lot which I readily acknowledge now and always have. But I also know you don't get a good reputation in the horseplayer community for no reason. Everyone, rightfully so, is skeptical of everybody and everything. I work hard and have always been as forthright as possible on this board and about TimeformUS and PaceFigures.
So when somebody like you states things like "clearly" and don't really know what they are talking about, it is annoying. I've learned it is the internet and everyone thinks they are an expert, but sometimes I just can't let it go.
thaskalos
08-26-2015, 10:07 PM
I'm a little testy these days, I try not to be. But when people give me shit and don't know what they are talking about it can grate on you.
Cj...take my word for it that my intention wasn't to give you any shit. I honestly just wanted to understand your figures a little better...without expecting you to reveal any "secrets'.
Cj...do your speed figures take into account the apparent ease with which the horse wins a particular race? What I mean is...do you enhance the figure if you see the horse being wrapped up at the end of a race...the way the Pharoah was in the Haskell?
No, absolutely not. That would make the also rans look better than they ran and I never want to do that.
I'm personally not sure how anyone could doubt the Haskell was a very fast race when you compare the time of it to the Monmouth Cup run two races earlier on the same card. Bradester is a solid G2 older male that easily defeated Red Vine (3rd in the Pacific Classic), but frankly American Pharoah would have crushed him on Haskell Day. Beholder crushed Red Vine...why wouldn't they have similar ratings?
Cj...take my word for it that my intention wasn't to give you any shit. I honestly just wanted to understand your figures a little better...without expecting you to reveal any "secrets'.
I absolutely didn't take your post that way, not even close. I was agreeing that I sensed the same condescension you did and that can make me a bit testy.
When someone says a duck isn't a duck, it doesn't mean I believe it's not a duck. Particularly when the person says he won't say why it's not a duck.
I believe CJ also unwittingly bolstered my argument when he scoffed at the Beyers recorded this year and asked what the point is when a number doesn't denote who is fastest/best. That Beyers or other figures don't always point at the fastest/best horse proves there is more objectivity than subjectivity in the numbers.
Why would I give away the formulas I use? They are all time based. I don't even have class listed on the worksheets I create other than a broad designation like "CLM" or "ALW" or something similar. And that is for other reasons that aren't even worth getting into.
As for Beyers, I will never believe that Materiality ran faster in the Florida Derby than American Pharoah ran in any of the Triple Crown races, let alone all of them. Like I said, if speed figures don't measure the fastest horse, what is the point? Sure, horses don't repeat speed figures, but they should tell you which horse is fastest when at its best. The rest of your statement makes no sense. Pointing to a slower horse as being faster is objective? OK, good luck with that.
Fager Fan
08-26-2015, 10:22 PM
I'm a little testy these days, I try not to be. But when people give me shit and don't know what they are talking about it can grate on you.
Anyone who uses Ragozin knows that AP hasn't recorded the best number this season (or now the co-best number this season) and that there are numerous horses who've recorded better numbers. Both Beyer and TG seem to generally concur. I ask how you can differ from those three - if not perceived class, then on what measure do you figure you differ. You may consider it giving you shit, but I consider it a valid question.
CJ...may I ask you a question that I don't remember if I've seen you answer before?
The Beyer group will go back and change a prior figure if they think that a "mistake" had been made...and it occurs to me that these types of "mistakes" might be even more common in the adjustments that you make in order to convert these "speed figures" into the more desirable "performance ratings" that you have wisely chosen to create. Do you go back and correct these mistakes when you identify them?
Just getting caught up...
Yes, we will go back and change figures, but it is very rare. If I do five a month around the country it is a lot. We use the ? system. You can read more here:
http://timeformusblog.com/2015/06/03/transparency-in-timeformus-speed-figures-question-marks-introduced-for-suspect-numbers/
Anyone who uses Ragozin knows that AP hasn't recorded the best number this season (or now the co-best number this season) and that there are numerous horses who've recorded better numbers. Both Beyer and TG seem to generally concur. I ask how you can differ from those three - if not perceived class, then on what measure do you figure you differ. You may consider it giving you shit, but I consider it a valid question.
It was time based like I said. Check out what I said about Bradester. AP would have demolished him that day...without trying. (but the without trying part isn't put in the figures as I've stated) He is a solid G2 winning older male. He beat Red Vine in his last start rather easily.
I can't speak much to Rags or TG, I respect them both but we have some philosophical differences. But I probably know more about Beyer figures than any person on the planet not named Andy. His figures are shrinking...rapidly. Isn't it possible some of that is he isn't projecting enough improvement in young horses, like rapidly improving 3yos, thus he underestimates them?
pandy
08-26-2015, 10:28 PM
CJ shouldn't debate anyone about his figures. If you don't like them, don't use them. I got the same crap when my figures were in the NYRA program. Some people complained because my figures weren't always the same as the Beyers in the racing form. Like every figure maker is going to have the exact same figures. Some people just don't get it. My top figure horses won the same percentage but had a better ROI, I know, I tested them. If they weren't working I would have changed them.
I ask how you can differ from those three -
He is better. He does it differently.
Kash$
08-27-2015, 07:28 AM
Imo theres CJ then the rest...
PICSIX
08-27-2015, 08:14 AM
So, is the 2 hole dead or what :confused: :confused:
Grits
08-27-2015, 08:32 AM
So, is the 2 hole dead or what :confused: :confused:
This is silliness. No. It's not at all. I'm sitting in the grandstand and don't know where the dead rail business is coming from. Maybe read yesterday's results, particularly the 6th and the 8th races. Two path...along with others this week.
pandy
08-27-2015, 08:40 AM
This is silliness. No. It's not at all. I'm sitting in the grandstand and don't know where the dead rail business is coming from. Maybe read yesterday's results, particularly the 6th and the 8th races. Two path...along with others this week.
The rail was okay yesterday but it had been dull many days and Saratoga is definitely a "sustained" track, if you're modeling. They talked about this on TVG yesterday, how the track was a tiring track. With the Travers in two days they may be working on the track. If AP sets the pace on the rail and loses Baffert will be all over NYRA. You have to think that they'll tighten up the track and it may have already started.
Grits
08-27-2015, 09:01 AM
Baffert doesn't own the dirt at Saratoga. Or the crew. Or the circuit.
Who on earth cares what TVG says, they're trying to fill air time!! And most of them aren't bias experts, perceived or otherwise.
As soon as Fager Fan went off with the meltdown towards Cj and his numbers, this thread should've been LOCKED. No one has the right to demand from someone or demean as Fager has.
You don't like the product, DON'T BUY IT.
You all keep on, because as it is, you're making public fools of yourselves. Looks good, real good. :rolleyes:
EMD4ME
08-27-2015, 09:03 AM
The rail was okay yesterday but it had been dull many days and Saratoga is definitely a "sustained" track, if you're modeling. They talked about this on TVG yesterday, how the track was a tiring track. With the Travers in two days they may be working on the track. If AP sets the pace on the rail and loses Baffert will be all over NYRA. You have to think that they'll tighten up the track and it may have already started.
Many dead rail days recently, many. I love it.
But you bet your last dollar NYRA wll make sure the rail is just fine by Saturday.
Yesterday's rail was much better vs. other days, so maybe they already started.
Kash$
08-27-2015, 09:10 AM
Many dead rail days recently, many. I love it.
But you bet your last dollar NYRA wll make sure the rail is just fine by Saturday.
Yesterday's rail was much better vs. other days, so maybe they already started.
EMD4ME are you saying along with the boosted purse they guarantee a gold rail is that why he drew post 2? :)
EMD4ME
08-27-2015, 09:12 AM
This is silliness. No. It's not at all. I'm sitting in the grandstand and don't know where the dead rail business is coming from. Maybe read yesterday's results, particularly the 6th and the 8th races. Two path...along with others this week.
I don't know about that Grits.
Yesterday's 8th race had the winner in the 4 path on the backstretch, 3 path far turn and 4 path most of the stretch. The runner up was in the 7 path on the backstretch, 3 path far turn and 2 path in the lane. 3rd finisher was 4 wide on backstretch, 5 path far turn, 6 path in the lane.
The 6th race was a Yonker's race. With the pocket beating the leader but they spent over 75% (combined) part of the race off the rail.
Winner was inside on the Clubhouse Turn, 2 path on the backstretch, 2 then 3 path far turn and was off the rail in the lane.
His brother took the lead and the rail on the Clubhouse turn, stayed in the 2 path plus on the backstretch and far turn and conveniently moved to the rail at the 1/4 as his brother got by him outside.
The third finisher in that race, was on the rail on the clubhouse turn, 3 path on the backstretch hugged the rail not making an impact on the far turn, angled 7 wide into the lane and made a very good rally from the 1/4 pole.
I think the rail was less dead yesterday but not yet fair.
Horse in race 4 was forced to the rail from the 1/2 mile pole, made a gorgeous rail move to rally to the lead but was bogged down and got beat by the chalk who was on the wrong lead kind of floundering but 3 wide plus the whole way.
Wire jobber in race 3 raced 5 wide on the backstretch, 3 wide on the far turn and 4 wide in the lane.
Only race 1 had a rail winner but that race was an abnormally fast race for those horses, so I take that race with a grain of salt.
I hope the rail gets better because I WANT a fair track Saturday.
EMD4ME
08-27-2015, 09:14 AM
EMD4ME are you saying along with the boosted purse they guarantee a gold rail is that why he drew post 2? :)
Are you leading the witness Mr. Matlock??? :lol: :lol: :lol:
pandy
08-27-2015, 09:25 AM
Although the Saratoga track has been tiring, favoring outside paths, and had many dull rail days, it is a lot better than a speed biased track because a horse can just set the pace in the two path and quality speed can still go all the way. When Santa Anita is speed favoring, as it was for three straight Breeders Cup days, it is very unfair to closers and a track like that makes it much too easy for cheap speed to hang on.
Even if the track is still tiring on Saturday and AP goes to the lead, he is quality speed. This isn't a severely dull track, it's just a track that favors horses with class and horses that can finish. AP has class and can finish. He will have no excuses.
NYRA has been keeping their tracks like this for years now because they know it makes the racing more exciting. A speed bias brings down the product.
It's also much easier on the horses. When a track has a strong speed bias the jockeys are much more likely to get into wicked speed duels, which is tough on the horses. With all of the physical problems horses have these days, any track that has a speed bias is proof that the people who run the track are clueless.
Grits
08-27-2015, 09:56 AM
Emd, you're always right. I don't have the need to go to the lengths you do. Your post is too long, and..its boring. There's one thing for sure, they can't all take the dreaded 2 path all the way around the oval.
Thank you for correcting me.
Pandy, your post is excellent summing up Saratoga's main.
I don't know about that Grits.
Fager Fan
08-27-2015, 11:18 AM
Baffert doesn't own the dirt at Saratoga. Or the crew. Or the circuit.
Who on earth cares what TVG says, they're trying to fill air time!! And most of them aren't bias experts, perceived or otherwise.
As soon as Fager Fan went off with the meltdown towards Cj and his numbers, this thread should've been LOCKED. No one has the right to demand from someone or demean as Fager has.
You don't like the product, DON'T BUY IT.
You all keep on, because as it is, you're making public fools of yourselves. Looks good, real good. :rolleyes:
Hey, I and others reading got the memo: This forum is for advertising TimeForm and no questioning is allowed. Beyer and others (and TVG) however are fair game for questioning and critique. Gotcha.
tucker6
08-27-2015, 11:29 AM
Hey, I and others reading got the memo: This forum is for advertising TimeForm and no questioning is allowed. Beyer and others (and TVG) however are fair game for questioning and critique. Gotcha.
Or maybe CJ has earned the benefit of the doubt and you have not.
Fager Fan
08-27-2015, 12:12 PM
Or maybe CJ has earned the benefit of the doubt and you have not.
Maybe you should try having an original thought.
TimeForm supposedly isn't a class rating yet American Pharoah's Derby win is ranked as the co-highest/best performance in the world and America this year. You really believe his Derby is the co-best (as of August 1st) American performance this year? And that AP's Haskell was the second best performance by an American horse (second only to one of Cigar's races)? You think these ratings could be derived from only times and other objective criteria (as objective as possible) and not from subjectivity?
EMD4ME
08-27-2015, 12:17 PM
Emd, you're always right. I don't have the need to go to the lengths you do. Your post is too long, and..its boring. There's one thing for sure, they can't all take the dreaded 2 path all the way around the oval.
Thank you for correcting me.
Pandy, your post is excellent summing up Saratoga's main.
If I simply said "I disagree" the rail is dead, that wouldn't prove much. But since I specifically discussed the races YOU pointed out proved the rail wasn't dead, in detail, you brush it off as boring and too long.
No, I'm not always right dear. Wasn't trying to "correct" you. Was simply discussing a perceived bias/perceived non bias.
Don't know what I was thinking talking bias in a PP thread....
Stay classy Grits ;)
Hey, I and others reading got the memo: This forum is for advertising TimeForm and no questioning is allowed. Beyer and others (and TVG) however are fair game for questioning and critique. Gotcha.
That simply isn't true, but feel free to make things up. I just happen to be here to respond to stuff posted unlike Beyer and others. They could come if they like. I've actually defended Beyer on the board many, many times.
Maybe you should try having an original thought.
TimeForm supposedly isn't a class rating yet American Pharoah's Derby win is ranked as the co-highest/best performance in the world and America this year. You really believe his Derby is the co-best (as of August 1st) American performance this year? And that AP's Haskell was the second best performance by an American horse (second only to one of Cigar's races)? You think these ratings could be derived from only times and other objective criteria (as objective as possible) and not from subjectivity?
Again, you are just making stuff up. It's the internet, so go for it. But I have a right to correct BS. You are confusing Timeform with TimeformUS. It is an easy distinction you can't seem to grasp. You also don't understand Timeform ratings, but that is whole different story I'm not going to get into. You can educate yourself if you like, not my job.
Fager Fan
08-27-2015, 12:35 PM
Again, you are just making stuff up. It's the internet, so go for it. But I have a right to correct BS. You are confusing Timeform with TimeformUS. It is an easy distinction you can't seem to grasp. You also don't understand Timeform ratings, but that is whole different story I'm not going to get into. You can educate yourself if you like, not my job.
I'm not making up anything. You said that neither entity is a class rating. In this posting I'm just talking about TimeForm and it is factual and I said nothing about TFUS. As for telling me I dont understand, no, I don't understand how TF can make the ratings I posted without a high degree of subjectivity as we all can think of many races which were superior/faster than both AP's Derby and his Haskell.
I'm not making up anything. You said that neither entity is a class rating. In this posting I'm just talking about TimeForm and it is factual and I said nothing about TFUS. As for telling me I dont understand, no, I don't understand how TF can make the ratings I posted without a high degree of subjectivity as we all can think of many races which were superior/faster than both AP's Derby and his Haskell.
I never said a word about Timeform not being a class rating.
You are wrong about your ratings. There is an overall Master Rating for each horse, of which Timeform has American Pharoah at 136. His race ratings have not topped a 130 yet, not one of them.
As far as the ratings being off and you know of many faster races, you should make a killing then at the windows. Good luck with that.
pandy
08-27-2015, 12:50 PM
A lesson to be learned from this is that speed figures are not universal, they are subjective, and that's why they have to be analyzed in the proper vein. Personally, I recognize the degree of error that exists and will always exist because variants, parallel time charts, etc., are merely educated guesses. If three horses in the race have figures like, 88, 87, 86 as their best recent figures, I rank them even on speed figures. The only time a horse clearly has a speed figure edge is if it is a double or triple fig or has figures that tower over the others, beyond the margin of error.
Fager Fan
08-27-2015, 01:12 PM
I never said a word about Timeform not being a class rating.
You are wrong about your ratings. There is an overall Master Rating for each horse, of which Timeform has American Pharoah at 136. His race ratings have not topped a 130 yet, not one of them.
As far as the ratings being off and you know of many faster races, you should make a killing then at the windows. Good luck with that.
https://www.timeform.com/racing/articles/ratings-update-derby-and-belmont-stakes-862015
By Timeform -- published 8th June 2015
Golden Horn may be the highest-rated horse in Europe – 1 lb ahead of Solow – but he’s not the highest-rated horse in the world, that accolade shared by Japan Cup winner Epiphaneia, five-time Grade 1 winner Shared Belief and Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. American Pharoah’s Timeform rating of 132p doesn’t derive from Saturday’s success in the Belmont Stakes– it comes from his Kentucky Derby win which has been reassessed...
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/aug/03/american-pharoah-timeform-highest-rated-world-haskell
American Pharoah has been given the highest rating of any horse in the world by Timeform following the latest outstanding display by the Triple Crown winner in Sunday night’s Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park. The racing ratings experts’ American correspondent believes the brilliant colt, now on a new figure of 136, has the potential to overtake the legendary Cigar (138) as the firm’s highest-rated runner from that continent.
As for whether you said TF isn't a class rating, that's what I read you to say in the "World's Best Horse" thread and again in this thread.
Finally, you really don't think there have been better/faster performances between Cigar and AP's Haskell? Not Smarty's Derby, not a few races by Ghostzapper, etc?
https://www.timeform.com/racing/articles/ratings-update-derby-and-belmont-stakes-862015
By Timeform -- published 8th June 2015
Golden Horn may be the highest-rated horse in Europe – 1 lb ahead of Solow – but he’s not the highest-rated horse in the world, that accolade shared by Japan Cup winner Epiphaneia, five-time Grade 1 winner Shared Belief and Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. American Pharoah’s Timeform rating of 132p doesn’t derive from Saturday’s success in the Belmont Stakes– it comes from his Kentucky Derby win which has been reassessed...
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/aug/03/american-pharoah-timeform-highest-rated-world-haskell
American Pharoah has been given the highest rating of any horse in the world by Timeform following the latest outstanding display by the Triple Crown winner in Sunday night’s Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park. The racing ratings experts’ American correspondent believes the brilliant colt, now on a new figure of 136, has the potential to overtake the legendary Cigar (138) as the firm’s highest-rated runner from that continent.
As for whether you said TF isn't a class rating, that's what I read you to say in the "World's Best Horse" thread and again in this thread.
Finally, you really don't think there have been better/faster performances between Cigar and AP's Haskell? Not Smarty's Derby, not a few races by Ghostzapper, etc?
I looked up the ratings before I posted...the fastest I see is a 128+. I don't work for Timeform and I just go by what is in print. The a indicates horse's best form is on a surface other than turf.
As for saying Timeform isn't class based, I've never said that in this thread, the other one, or any one in existence. I'm sure you'd have found a quote if I had.
Also, Timeform uses weight for age in its ratings. So a horse that runs an elite perfomance as young 3yo will be rated the same as an older horse that is faster but runs a similarly elite race. Of course I think there have been faster performances, but that isn't what the ratings are saying. You should spend some time on the Timeform site and read the information there for a better understanding.
I'll discuss TimeformUS all day. I'm done talking about Timeform. They are different products and different methods to rate horses. I will say the ratings transfer across the pond very well despite this. Funny thing, usually the "classy" horses are also the fast horses.
This is a snapshot of his Triple Crown races and Haskell:
Robert Fischer
08-27-2015, 01:32 PM
I kind of got lost in this thread and had to resort to skimming. Please forgive...
random hopefully applicable comments:
1m1/4 plenty of time to get position
other than the off-track days, I had inside/outside as 'fair'
Beholder is a wonderful story and I keyed/singled her in wagers, but nothing in her race looked comparable to American Pharoah.
classhandicapper
08-27-2015, 03:38 PM
A lesson to be learned from this is that speed figures are not universal, they are subjective, and that's why they have to be analyzed in the proper vein. Personally, I recognize the degree of error that exists and will always exist because variants, parallel time charts, etc., are merely educated guesses. If three horses in the race have figures like, 88, 87, 86 as their best recent figures, I rank them even on speed figures. The only time a horse clearly has a speed figure edge is if it is a double or triple fig or has figures that tower over the others, beyond the margin of error.
Someone should bronze this post. :ThmbUp:
Someone should bronze this post. :ThmbUp:
You've made the same post 1,726 tunes already. :)
classhandicapper
08-27-2015, 06:05 PM
You've made the same post 1,726 tunes already. :)
I can't help myself. ;)
I still read articles, tweets, and forum posts from terrific handicappers where they make definitive statements about the ability of horses based on figures that were earned on different surfaces, with different running style tendencies, in races with with different paces, using figures that have drifted faster or slower over time and that have had methodology changes along the way etc... It makes me want to retch when there's at least one thread per month where no one can agree on the same race on the same day, let alone take all that into account.
IMO American Pharoah and Beholder both ran huge races last out. If they face each other, what those exact numbers were is almost irrelevant. The winner is going to depend on who brings that race or better to the face off and what trip they both get.
PaceAdvantage
08-29-2015, 08:29 AM
Hey, I and others reading got the memo: This forum is for advertising TimeForm and no questioning is allowed. Beyer and others (and TVG) however are fair game for questioning and critique. Gotcha.Stop being a tool.
You've asked plenty of questions and gotten plenty of answers in return from the guy who created the damn figures. Have you been censored? Have you been banned?
Since the answer to the last two questions is a big fat no, then I guess TFUS is ALSO fair game for questioning and critique, because you've certainly done that and more.
Don't let me read any more dickishness out of you.
PaceAdvantage
08-29-2015, 08:32 AM
Wait a minute...has Fager Fan been debating TimeForum (not TFUS) figures with cj all this time? :bang: :bang: :bang: :bang: :bang:
pandy
08-29-2015, 09:00 AM
Yes he has....
I noticed that most, if not all, of the public handicappers including Serling, Beer, Matthews, myself, and others that have been picking against AP picked him on top today....that's when the big horse usually loses, when everyone is on him. Sort of like the stock market, when everyone in the country is all-in it's time to get out...
Year's ago when I worked for Sports Eye we charted the NFL consensus box picks from the NY Post. The consensus box Best Bet lost 80% against the spread for the season, so it was actually a Best Bet in reverse.
Fager Fan
08-29-2015, 10:07 AM
Wait a minute...has Fager Fan been debating TimeForum (not TFUS) figures with cj all this time? :bang: :bang: :bang: :bang: :bang:
No, I haven't. If you actually read my posts your know that.
If TFUS can't withstand questions about subjectivity in their numbers, then that's on them. I've never heard of anyone being told they can't ask about a product - not in any field.
It's a simple query: how do you come up with AP running the best race of this year (or co-best now) when Beyer, Ragozin and TG all have multiple other horses running better/faster races? Is there some objective measure that none of the others use, or is it a subjective measure? He answered "time" so we're to just accept that as the answer and walk away, which I'd done until you tore into me. So stuff it. We may all concur that AP is the top horse racing this year, but it's subjectivity that makes us arrive at that conclusion - not some methodology as a result of plugging in just the numbers.
Not an subjective measure, but a BETTER measure.
CJ makes the best figs out there. And he objectively tests everything he does.
And when a race comes up as questionable, he lets us know by flagging it with a ??.
What could be more objective?
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Wait a minute...has Fager Fan been debating TimeForum (not TFUS) figures with cj all this time?
V3FnpaWQJO0
PaceAdvantage
08-29-2015, 10:25 AM
No, I haven't. If you actually read my posts your know that.
If TFUS can't withstand questions about subjectivity in their numbers, then that's on them. I've never heard of anyone being told they can't ask about a product - not in any field.
It's a simple query: how do you come up with AP running the best race of this year (or co-best now) when Beyer, Ragozin and TG all have multiple other horses running better/faster races? Is there some objective measure that none of the others use, or is it a subjective measure? He answered "time" so we're to just accept that as the answer and walk away, which I'd done until you tore into me. So stuff it. We may all concur that AP is the top horse racing this year, but it's subjectivity that makes us arrive at that conclusion - not some methodology as a result of plugging in just the numbers.No, you stuff it. Who says TFUS has to agree with Beyer, Rag and TG? Or vice versa? It seems to me you're arguing for the sake of being argumentative, and nothing more.
The TFUS figures are what they are. You either buy into them or you don't, same as any other figure.
There are a LOT of people who use TFUS figures on this board (including me, and I actually PAY for them, believe it or not), and every one of those folks has nothing but praise for cj's numbers...and this goes back to before TFUS when he had his pacefigures.com website.
I don't know what your agenda is, but I suggest you stop boring everyone with your nonsense and cease your "look at me, I'm a martyr, they won't answer my poignant questions because this website is working for TFUS...it's all a sham!!" rants.
ultracapper
08-29-2015, 10:42 AM
V3FnpaWQJO0
What brought on the Strawberry Fields Forever tagline?
Fager Fan
08-29-2015, 11:09 AM
Let me buy you and Tom a clue, PA: subjectivity doesn't equal inferiority. That's why the Eclipse awards are voted on opinion, not who ran the best single number for the year.
I've long thought TF was a class rating and we seem to have the admittance of that here. A new entity under the same banner would seemingly use at least similar methodology. When the new entity similarly lands on the best horse (by opinion) then it reinforces the idea. I'm told not, that it's strictly by the numbers and there's no subjectivity used. I'm told it's its "time" and that AP would've beat a good horse on the card earlier. So I guess this means TFUS came up with a significantly different variant than Beyer, TG, and Ragozin. I guess.
You go ahead and use whatever numbers you want. When I think Beyers looks out of line, I question it. I've never had a pack of wolves come after me for doing so. Don't think you're just talking to me. There were others who asked if the ease of which AP won played a role. Others may have questions but reading this thread they'll know it's best to keep their mouth shut on this forum.
PaceAdvantage
08-29-2015, 11:16 AM
A new entity under the same banner would seemingly use at least similar methodology.You are a stubborn one. But this quote of yours I've taken the liberty to reproduce, seems to be the major mistake in your thinking.
I'll let cj clarify (I bet he already did, but I'm too lazy to look back in this thread), but cj and his numbers were around WELL BEFORE the TimeForm name became attached. cj and his numbers are what are behind TimeFormUS...Euro TimeForm has little to do with it, other than their name and capital.
If I'm wrong, I'm sure cj will correct me.
Fager Fan
08-29-2015, 11:51 AM
It's pretty logical to think there should be some similar methodology but CJ has already said no, and further stated that there is no subjectivity in his numbers.
PaceAdvantage
08-29-2015, 12:02 PM
It's pretty logical to think there should be some similar methodology but CJ has already said no, and further stated that there is no subjectivity in his numbers.It's not logical when you are armed with this simple fact: cj has been doing his numbers for countless years before any association with TimeForm came about. You've been here since 2010. You don't know anything about pacefigures.com? You don't know anything about the history of cj's pace figs? Hard to believe since you have been an active poster here for quite some time.
TimeFormUS is based on cj's pace figures...the figures he's been crafting for something like 20 years (I am off on that number, but I bet it's close).
Think of it this way. The DRF didn't always have Beyer figures. Then Beyer joined DRF and the Beyer figures started appearing in the DRF. If you were around back then, you'd be posting that "well, since Beyer figures are appearing in the DRF, it would be logical to think the Beyer speed figure is similar to the DRF speed-rating/track variant numbers...."
I think even you would agree that there is no comparison between the way the old DRF speed-rating is calculated and the way a Beyer speed figure is calculated. In fact, you'd have to agree based on facts.
Same with cj and TimeFormUS. TimeFormUS uses cj's pace figure methodology. They brought him in to be the "Beyer" of TimeFormUS. TimeForm is there essentially in name only. They have some name recognition and they provided the capital to start the company. But the European TimeForm numbers are not similar to cj's pace figures.
tucker6
08-29-2015, 12:56 PM
I gotta hand it to you PA, you have infinitely more patience than I do. :ThmbUp:
Fager Fan
08-29-2015, 02:52 PM
It's not logical when you are armed with this simple fact: cj has been doing his numbers for countless years before any association with TimeForm came about. You've been here since 2010. You don't know anything about pacefigures.com? You don't know anything about the history of cj's pace figs? Hard to believe since you have been an active poster here for quite some time.
TimeFormUS is based on cj's pace figures...the figures he's been crafting for something like 20 years (I am off on that number, but I bet it's close).
Think of it this way. The DRF didn't always have Beyer figures. Then Beyer joined DRF and the Beyer figures started appearing in the DRF. If you were around back then, you'd be posting that "well, since Beyer figures are appearing in the DRF, it would be logical to think the Beyer speed figure is similar to the DRF speed-rating/track variant numbers...."
I think even you would agree that there is no comparison between the way the old DRF speed-rating is calculated and the way a Beyer speed figure is calculated. In fact, you'd have to agree based on facts.
Same with cj and TimeFormUS. TimeFormUS uses cj's pace figure methodology. They brought him in to be the "Beyer" of TimeFormUS. TimeForm is there essentially in name only. They have some name recognition and they provided the capital to start the company. But the European TimeForm numbers are not similar to cj's pace figures.
I've never heard of CJ and pacefigures.com except to know that some fellow going by CJ posts here and I saw from some posts here that he was hired to be the TimeFormUS guy. Even if I knew he makes his own figs and has for years that wouldn't tell me that when hired by TimeForm that he wasn't hired to be the person in charge of their methodology but on U.S. runners. So nothing changed, not even the scale, got it. That these are CJ's numbers has already been discussed so we can skip over this point going further if you're concerned about boring people.
AndyC
08-29-2015, 03:25 PM
.......if you're concerned about boring people.
That ship left port many posts ago.
PaceAdvantage
08-29-2015, 03:27 PM
I've never heard of CJ and pacefigures.com except to know that some fellow going by CJ posts here and I saw from some posts here that he was hired to be the TimeFormUS guy.So you admit you're posting from a position of ignorance. That explains it nicely.
I'll bow out of this conversation now. Nothing more to be said.
Haven't been able to follow much today, but seeing some I respect speculate the rail isn't the place to be.
What brought on the Strawberry Fields Forever tagline?
Some very good mushrooms.
Fager Fan
08-29-2015, 03:48 PM
So you admit you're posting from a position of ignorance. That explains it nicely.
I'll bow out of this conversation now. Nothing more to be said.
You're ridiculous. I don't need to know anything about CJ and his "team" to ask what I asked.
You're a paid shill. That explains it nicely.
PaceAdvantage
09-01-2015, 12:24 AM
You're ridiculous. I don't need to know anything about CJ and his "team" to ask what I asked.
You're a paid shill. That explains it nicely.Yes, paid handsomely AT THE WINDOWS while using cj's speed and pace figures. Or did you miss my "My Travers Line" thread? You should check it out.
There's a big difference between shill and a very satisfied PAYING CUSTOMER, as I am of cj's.
Once again, you post from a position of EXTREME ignorance.
EMD4ME
09-01-2015, 06:03 PM
Now that a few days have gone by and people have had a chance to work on Saturday's card, what is your opinion of PP 2 and how it worked out for AP.
My buddy, who I must admit is a total AP homer, thinks the rail was dead and Frosted keeping AP inside, cost AP the race.
I, obviously, see the rail as a positive from a path perspective, I do see it as a negative from a decision perspective. Please allow me to elaborate. When you're on the rail with the lead OR inside with the lead, I can see where the presser (from the outside) decides when to go and in return, you're forced to go as well (being that you're on the lead and inside). This makes you reactive, which causes a horse like AP, to have react to a challenge instead of being the attacker.
Regardless, it is my opinion that a horse like AP, should have been able to react to Frosted's challenge and still continue running a strong enough 5th quarter to victory.
Thoughts on AP's PP2? Thoughts on preferred paths for Saturday's runners?
pandy
09-01-2015, 06:12 PM
In the interview immediately after the race, Espinoza said that "the jockey on Frosted seem more interested on keeping me pinned to the rail...."
I forget the rest of the sentence, but he did mention that Lezcano was trying to keep him inside. Which to me is smart race riding. Angel Cordero may have done the same thing.
EMD4ME
09-01-2015, 06:24 PM
In the interview immediately after the race, Espinoza said that "the jockey on Frosted seem more interested on keeping me pinned to the rail...."
I forget the rest of the sentence, but he did mention that Lezcano was trying to keep him inside. Which to me is smart race riding. Angel Cordero may have done the same thing.
I'm not a Lezcano fan but he earned stripes with me Saturday. Not for effecting AP but for either following instructions OR having the testicular fortitude to ride for the win. I HATE the NYRA way of playing follow the leader to cash a nice check for 2nd or 3rd because we have slot fueled purses now, so it was refreshing to see a jock go mano a mano with AP after 6F. Good for him if he pinned him in. If he's a champion (yes I know he's 3YO HOY and probably HOY, I'm talking true champion, not a champion by election) he would've ourbursted Frosted AND ran a 26 Q5 to win it.
Why did you have to mention Cordero :bang: ? I miss him as well.
pandy
09-01-2015, 06:35 PM
I never saw Eddie Arcaro ride but based on what I heard, if he was riding Frosted Amer. Pharoah may have had skid marks from the fence on him.
EMD4ME
09-01-2015, 06:54 PM
I never saw Eddie Arcaro ride but based on what I heard, if he was riding Frosted Amer. Pharoah may have had skid marks from the fence on him.
I say this in somewhat of jest but THAT'S my kind of rider!
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