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Stillriledup

08-24-2015, 11:37 PM

Valuist

08-25-2015, 11:35 AM

All I've seen offshore is futures prices for the title. I was in Reno a week and a half ago and nothing at that point for NBA win totals.

Stillriledup

08-25-2015, 01:04 PM

Thanks, that's all I saw too, too early I guess.

I think I'm looking to fade GS if their win total is any higher than 58, lets see them do that again. They'll be less hungry, another 60 + win season will be hard to duplicate.

I'm guessing Cleve will be at least 60 on O/U I don't know how I feel about them to win over 60, they may just rest lebron here and there and if they have a huge lead w a few weeks left they may not be as intense. tough call

ReplayRandall

08-25-2015, 08:53 PM

Lets get this show on the road! I don't know if LVH or Westgate or whatever they call themselves these days has posted totals, if anyone finds them please post them up here, I promise ill give you the Winners. ;)

Tell you what, since the win total lines aren't up yet, here's what I project for each team's wins, needing a gap(error margin) of 2.5 wins over/under on actual lines to make a bet:

Atlanta Hawks - 51
Boston Celtics - 47
Brooklyn Nets - 30
Charlotte Hornets - 42
Chicago Bulls - 51
Cleveland Cavaliers - 51
Dallas Mavericks - 41
Denver Nuggets - 25
Detroit Pistons - 40
Golden State Warriors - 63
Houston Rockets - 57
Indiana Pacers - 39
LA Clippers - 62
LA Lakers - 30
Memphis Grizzlies - 57
Miami Heat - 41
Milwaukee Bucks - 40
Minnesota Timberwolves - 26
New Orleans Pelicans - 46
New York Knicks - 28
Oklahoma City Thunder - 60
Orlando Magic - 32
Philadelphia Sixers - 23
Phoenix Suns - 37
Portland Trail Blazers - 39
Sacramento Kings - 35
San Antonio Spurs - 58
Toronto Raptors - 53
Utah Jazz - 41
Washington Wizards - 44

Stillriledup

08-26-2015, 01:06 AM

Tell you what, since the win total lines aren't up yet, here's what I project for each team's wins, needing a gap(error margin) of 2.5 wins over/under on actual lines to make a bet:

Atlanta Hawks - 51
Boston Celtics - 47
Brooklyn Nets - 30
Charlotte Hornets - 42
Chicago Bulls - 51
Cleveland Cavaliers - 51
Dallas Mavericks - 41
Denver Nuggets - 25
Detroit Pistons - 40
Golden State Warriors - 63
Houston Rockets - 57
Indiana Pacers - 39
LA Clippers - 62
LA Lakers - 30
Memphis Grizzlies - 57
Miami Heat - 41
Milwaukee Bucks - 40
Minnesota Timberwolves - 26
New Orleans Pelicans - 46
New York Knicks - 28
Oklahoma City Thunder - 60
Orlando Magic - 32
Philadelphia Sixers - 23
Phoenix Suns - 37
Portland Trail Blazers - 39
Sacramento Kings - 35
San Antonio Spurs - 58
Toronto Raptors - 53
Utah Jazz - 41
Washington Wizards - 44

Ill see if I can help your list out.

Clippers won't be 62 but if they are, I'm going under. Anything over 60 in western conf is an under for me, I'm thinking clips more along the lines of 57. They were 56 or something like that past 2 years.

Thunder also seem high at 60, if KD or RW miss any real time, you lose that bet on over, you have to have perfect health for KD to have a shot at 60.

Wolves might be low at 26. I don't know why but they might be able to beat that number.

Cavs will be 60 or higher IMO.

I like a lot of your lines, good job!

Valuist

08-26-2015, 11:52 AM

Ill see if I can help your list out.

Clippers won't be 62 but if they are, I'm going under. Anything over 60 in western conf is an under for me, I'm thinking clips more along the lines of 57. They were 56 or something like that past 2 years.

Thunder also seem high at 60, if KD or RW miss any real time, you lose that bet on over, you have to have perfect health for KD to have a shot at 60.

Wolves might be low at 26. I don't know why but they might be able to beat that number.

Cavs will be 60 or higher IMO.

I like a lot of your lines, good job!

Agree on all 4 teams.

Stillriledup

09-29-2015, 06:06 PM

http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/13772067/nba-westgate-las-vegas-superbook-releases-2015-16-season-win-totals

09-29-2015, 06:07 PM

Putting my perfect record from last year on the line...over 57.5 for the Thunder this year.

Stillriledup

09-29-2015, 06:09 PM

I was wrong about the Cavs, I thought they would be 60ish

Stillriledup

09-29-2015, 06:11 PM

Putting my perfect record from last year on the line...over 57.5 for the Thunder this year.

It's extremely difficult to win 58 the west, I might be on under for Clips as well as SA and GS. Hard to bet over on any of those teams.

Tell me about OKCs roster this year, besides KD and RW, what's it look like?

09-29-2015, 06:15 PM

It's extremely difficult to win 58 the west, I might be on under for Clips as well as SA and GS. Hard to bet over on any of those teams.

Tell me about OKCs roster this year, besides KD and RW, what's it look like?

Best it has ever been, very deep. All the top west teams will beat up on the East so i don't think 60 will be as tough as you do, but I've been wrong before. Also, some teams that have been tough in the West are definitely heading the wrong way like Portland and Dallas.

http://www.nba.com/thunder/roster

Stillriledup

09-29-2015, 06:35 PM

Best it has ever been, very deep. All the top west teams will beat up on the East so i don't think 60 will be as tough as you do, but I've been wrong before. Also, some teams that have been tough in the West are definitely heading the wrong way like Portland and Dallas.

http://www.nba.com/thunder/roster

Good luck this year, last year was forgettable, here's wishing health all the way thru for you guys!

ReplayRandall

09-29-2015, 09:25 PM

Thanks SRU for putting up the Westgate win totals. Of course, I will be waiting for the various other books to put up their lines before I make my selections and unit size bets. Here are the list of probable plays from my line(Post#4) that I'm looking at off the Westgate opening line:

2015-16 NBA season win totals
From Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook

No play-Atlanta Hawks 49.5
Over----Boston Celtics 42.5
No play-Brooklyn Nets 28.5
Over----Charlotte Hornets 32.5
No play-Chicago Bulls 49.5
Under---Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5
No play-Dallas Mavericks 38.5
No play-Denver Nuggets 26.5
Over----Detroit Pistons 33.5
No play-Golden State Warriors 60.5
No play-Houston Rockets 54.5
Under---Indiana Pacers 42.5
Over----Los Angeles Clippers 56.5
No play-Los Angeles Lakers 29.5
Over----Memphis Grizzlies 50.5
Under---Miami Heat 45.5
Under---Milwaukee Bucks 43.5
No play-Minnesota Timberwolves 25.5
No play-New Orleans Pelicans 47.5
Under---New York Knicks 31.5
No play-Oklahoma City Thunder 57.5
No play-Orlando Magic 32.5
No play-Philadelphia 76ers 21.5
No play-Phoenix Suns 36.5
Over----Portland Trail Blazers 26.5
Over----Sacramento Kings 30.5
No play-San Antonio Spurs 58.5
Over----Toronto Raptors 45.5
No play-Utah Jazz 40.5
No play-Washington Wizards 45.5

Valuist

09-29-2015, 09:31 PM

I see it was time for Derrick Rose's annual surgery. But nowadays, Rose NOT playing may be a plus for the Bulls.

Stillriledup

09-30-2015, 01:31 AM

Are the Blazers really 26.5? Is LA worth 30 games?

Canarsie

09-30-2015, 08:43 AM

I see it was time for Derrick Rose's annual surgery. But nowadays, Rose NOT playing may be a plus for the Bulls.

Are you a psychic or did you know about this before you posted? Either answer is fine I don't mind getting my chain yanked every now and then.

Derrick Rose to have surgery after injury on first day of practice

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/bulls/2015/09/29/derrick-rose-have-surgery/73055934/

Valuist

09-30-2015, 11:07 AM

Are you a psychic or did you know about this before you posted? Either answer is fine I don't mind getting my chain yanked every now and then.

Derrick Rose to have surgery after injury on first day of practice

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/bulls/2015/09/29/derrick-rose-have-surgery/73055934/

I'd like to say yes, but after my 0-3 NFL picks last weekend, I'll have to admit the truth that I'm not.

Valuist

09-30-2015, 11:20 AM

Are the Blazers really 26.5? Is LA worth 30 games?

Portland won 51 during the regular season last year, so the player losses are worth 25 games. Obviously Aldridge is the biggest loss, but both Afflalo and Robin Lopez went to the Knicks.

On a power rating level, using Sagarin's ratings from last year, we see a 92.7 rating for Portland (which includes their 5 post season games as well). Orlando was a 25 win team at 84.4. Bumping that slightly to 85 for an extra win and a half, comes out to a 7.7 change. I've heard linemakers say Lebron is worth about 7 points, and Durant about 6.5 to a power rating. Aldridge would obviously make up the bulk of the 7.7, but not all of it. Is it too much? Didn't Portland overperform a bit last year? Maybe their season O/U last year was closer to 45 or 47, so they weren't viewed as a 51 win team.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/nba/sagarin/

ReplayRandall

09-30-2015, 12:37 PM

I will go ahead and confirm these win totals as my plays. Before the season starts, I may add more from different books, if I find valuable line movements.

2015-16 NBA season win totals
From Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook

Units-3-Over----Portland Trail Blazers 26.5
Units-2-Over----Charlotte Hornets 32.5
Units-2-Over----Toronto Raptors 45.5
Units-1-Over----Boston Celtics 42.5
Units-1-Over----Detroit Pistons 33.5
Units-1-Over----Los Angeles Clippers 56.5
Units-1-Over----Memphis Grizzlies 50.5
Units-1-Over----Sacramento Kings 30.5
Units-1-Under---Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5
Units-1-Under---Indiana Pacers 42.5
Units-1-Under---Miami Heat 45.5
Units-1-Under---Milwaukee Bucks 43.5
Units-1-Under---New York Knicks 31.5

Stillriledup

10-02-2015, 10:17 PM

The 'rules' that let Portland finish ahead of SA was what won GS the title, not sure GS beats LAC or SA with both those teams at full power.

I think they changed the rule this year.

Stillriledup

10-27-2015, 03:00 PM

I'm stumped this year on who to pick totals wise.

I was leaning under on GS, LAC, SA and Dallas and Over on Sac, Utah and MINNY.

Please critique any or all of these, I'm right on the fence, a mild argument thats good for or against could sway me.

Thanks.

Stillriledup

10-27-2015, 08:05 PM

ReplayRandall

10-27-2015, 09:13 PM

Lets go with these for the season

Under:
GS
LAC
SA
DALLAS
ATL

over
Utah
Min
Sac

Agree with Kings- over

Disagree with LAC- under

All other plays have no edge/value, you're just gambling... :cool:

Stillriledup

10-28-2015, 05:15 AM

Agree with Kings- over

Disagree with LAC- under

All other plays have no edge/value, you're just gambling... :cool:

Funny how the 'gambling' always seems to turn out in the black for me. You can call me mr 60/40 if you want. ;)

Canarsie

10-28-2015, 11:12 AM

I'll take Utah over 41 they have a shot at making the playoffs.

10-30-2015, 11:22 PM

Putting my perfect record from last year on the line...over 57.5 for the Thunder this year.

Wins like tonight are what you need to get the over. Thunder had no business winning that game, but Westbrook...

10-31-2015, 01:07 PM

fGErOAvjmlY

lansdale

11-05-2015, 03:14 PM

Since we're already a week into the season, I'm bumping this thread, not to make totals picks, but to use them as an index to general comments on a few teams of interest.

NBA West

GSW - 62

Still the best team in the league - no real weaknesses. Very talented, smart, and well-coached. Don't agree with what seems to be the consensus that they're on a par with the rest of the west's 'big four' - think they're a cut above.

Spurs - 58

Much talent, but also trying to integrate many new players. Remains to be seen how the attempt to shift the burden of the offense to Kawhi and Aldrich, switching from being a pick-and-roll team to more of an NBA throwback post-up/iso team, is going to work out. In the games I've seen Aldrich still seems a bit out of synch. Biggest weakness - except for Danny Green, terrible backcourt D - maybe swingman Kyle Anderson can provide some help.

OKC - 57

With a number of mid-season deals last year, GM transformed this team into more of an offense-oriented unit, and in terms of stats, almost a mirror of Clips.
In a couple of games I've seen, Durant seems to have completely regained his former high level of play and Westbrook is at the same high level as last year. Ibaka and Adams seem slightly off, but still very early in the season. Main weakness are all the one-way players on the second unit, but don't think this will become an issue until the playoffs. Still a very good team - like Clips, will probably score 112 ppg while giving up 104 ppg.

LAC - 57

After watching a few games, less confident that this team really has a shot at winning the West, based on the infusion of new players. Lance Stephenson, at least for now, giving them less than I thought. I don't how many minutes Pierce can handle, but I'd start playing him more. Josh Smith ditto - whatever you may think of him, he's a big improvement over Spencer Hawes. In general, Clips really need to find a way to rest the starters more - think that their late-season exhaustion is the main reason for their inability to advance.

NBA East

Cavs - 55

Barring a season-ending injury to a key player, these guys should be back in the Finals. Think it's likely that LBJ's nagging back problem will take him out of the lineup for a couple of weeks or so - similar to last year, otherwise I think these guys would win 65 games. Worth remembering that without him (like OKC without Durant), they're basically a .500 team.

Bulls - ?

What's happened to these guys? Looks like they're in free fall. I know Rose is recovering from injury, but looks unlikely that he'll ever really come back. Why is Snell starting? Noah may not have been able to score, but he can still rebound and defend. Maybe already time to 86 Hoiberg.

Knicks - 37

May seem ridiculously high, but Portzingis looks much better than I expected. Knicks have a history of drafting Euro lemons, but looks like a very good move by Jackson. Once Affalo returns, we'll see how these guys shape up.

Hornets - ?

Lin and Lamb appear to be giving these guys a major boost. Think this is a level where they can thrive. Lin should be starting - KW just not that good.

Stillriledup

11-23-2015, 05:41 PM

Lets go with these for the season

Under:
GS
LAC
SA
DALLAS
ATL

over
Utah
Min
Sac

1-1 so far here w GS as official loser and Clippers official winner.

1-1 with the rest still up in the air.

ReplayRandall

11-23-2015, 11:04 PM

Hornets - ?

Lin and Lamb appear to be giving these guys a major boost. Think this is a level where they can thrive. Lin should be starting - KW just not that good.

Kemba sends his regards, Lansdale....UP YOURS....16 for 23 from the field= 39 points and an OT win.

lansdale

11-24-2015, 05:32 PM

Kemba sends his regards, Lansdale....UP YOURS....16 for 23 from the field= 39 points and an OT win.

Thanks for sharing ;-). While Walker had a very good game, worth noting that it was Lin who put this game away with clutch scoring in the OT. I stand by my previous (and I thought, fairly innocuous!) comments. Walker is a better scorer, Lin is a much better decision-maker, hence PG.

ReplayRandall

11-24-2015, 05:40 PM

Thanks for sharing ;-). While Walker had a very good game, worth noting that it was Lin who put this game away with clutch scoring in the OT. I stand by my previous (and I thought, fairly innocuous!) comments. Walker is a better scorer, Lin is a much better decision-maker, hence PG.

Actually, your comments are spot-on......was just having a little fun with you after Kemba's scoring outburst... :cool:

ReplayRandall

12-05-2015, 11:30 PM

I will go ahead and confirm these win totals as my plays. Before the season starts, I may add more from different books, if I find valuable line movements.

2015-16 NBA season win totals
From Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook

Winning Units-3-Over----Portland Trail Blazers 26.5
Winning Units-2-Over----Charlotte Hornets 32.5
Winning Units-2-Over----Toronto Raptors 45.5
Winning Units-1-Over----Boston Celtics 42.5
Winning Units-1-Over----Detroit Pistons 33.5
Losing Units-1-Over----Los Angeles Clippers 56.5
Losing Units-1-Over----Memphis Grizzlies 50.5
Losing Units-1-Over----Sacramento Kings 30.5
Winning Units-1-Under---Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5
Losing Units-1-Under---Indiana Pacers 42.5
Losing Units-1-Under---Miami Heat 45.5
Winning Units-1-Under---Milwaukee Bucks 43.5
Losing Units-1-Under---New York Knicks 31.5

We're through the 1st Quarter of the season, here's the current status +5 Units, shown above....

ReplayRandall

01-19-2016, 11:00 AM

I will go ahead and confirm these win totals as my plays. Before the season starts, I may add more from different books, if I find valuable line movements.

2015-16 NBA season win totals
From Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook

WinningUnits-3-Over----Portland Trail Blazers 26.5
WinningUnits-2-Over----Charlotte Hornets 32.5
WinningUnits-2-Over----Toronto Raptors 45.5
WinningUnits-1-Over----Boston Celtics 42.5
WinningUnits-1-Over----Detroit Pistons 33.5
LosingUnits-1-Over----Los Angeles Clippers 56.5
LosingUnits-1-Over----Memphis Grizzlies 50.5
WinningUnits-1-Over----Sacramento Kings 30.5
LosingUnits-1-Under---Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5
LosingUnits-1-Under---Indiana Pacers 42.5
LosingUnits-1-Under---Miami Heat 45.5
WinningUnits-1-Under---Milwaukee Bucks 43.5
LosingUnits-1-Under---New York Knicks 31.5

We're through the 1st Half of the season, the current status remains at +5 Units(minus vig), shown above....

ReplayRandall

03-04-2016, 10:16 PM