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View Full Version : M L 3/1's giving good profits @Dirt @1 Mile or better @SAR -so far profits are huge!!


TheOracle
08-24-2015, 11:22 PM
This has to be by far my biggest find ever since tracking the trends at Saratoga, or any other track for that matter, for profitts.


The Morning Line 3/1's going at Distances of 1 Mile or greater on the Dirt have hit the board in 18 of their last 19 attempts!!!

Also, they have won 8 of their last 19 races giving a return of 66% for a $2 wager to win in each instance!!!


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml threeonesdirtsar.jpg


The 3/1's going 1 Mile or greater on the Dirt since August 8th have hit the board in 10 of their last 10 races and the show parlay is up to $180.70 which I will have in another post!!!

A $2 wager just to show in each instance, so far, is giving you a 50% return!!!

Were it not for #1 Cease in the 1st race finishing off the board on August 8th the streak across the board would be at 18 out of 18 attempts!!!


I don't know why the Morning Line 3/1's have been so consistent on the Dirt going at 1 Mile or better, in this case 1 1/8 Miles or better, but this has to be the best streak that I have found in weeks and I hope it continues!!!!


I will definitely be keeping an eye on this one !!! I just wish I could have found this one much sooner let's see how long the streak can last!!!!

TheOracle
08-26-2015, 11:40 PM
The Morning Line 3/1's continue with their streak as 11 of the last 11 have now hit the board safely going 1 Mile or better on the Dirt at the Spa!!!


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml threeonesmileovrdrt.jpg

I was just hoping #2 Total Joint would hit the board but he came through with a win and extended the across the board streak to 11 in a row going 1 Mile or better!!!


The show parlay is now over $360!!!

I will also be watching this streak very closely as the season winds down at Saratoga!!!

ultracapper
08-27-2015, 11:32 AM
Pletcher 4-3-1-0

If his horse gets bet down from 3-1, it's a win bet. If it floats up, not so. That's what the last 4 have shown.

TheOracle
08-27-2015, 04:26 PM
Pletcher 4-3-1-0

If his horse gets bet down from 3-1, it's a win bet. If it floats up, not so. That's what the last 4 have shown.

Hey Ultra,

That's a great catch !!!

You are right on the button I didn't even see the Pletcher angle here!!


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/t pletchmileovrdrt.jpg

Since August 8th his horses have been struggling, but you are right at 3/1 Morning Line his horses have 4 starts with 3 wins and 1 second place finish as of yesterday in this situation!!

I will watch him at the 3/1 Morning Line and see if his odds float up or down in this situation!!!

ultracapper
08-28-2015, 12:50 PM
I've always wondered about 3/1 and 7/2 MLs, particularly on lightly raced horses. It's as if the clockers are saying "We think you have something here, but we aren't totally sold", or "We think this one isn't as good as it looks, but we aren't selling out yet." It's such a "tweener" ML. It would be interesting to see just how accurate the money is on horses assigned those MLs, to see if the money can accurately predict how the horse will do by watching if the horse gets bet down or if it floats up, and if it then performs as predicted.

green80
08-29-2015, 11:37 AM
19 races is not enough to base any kind of trend on. If you had 200 races I would take a look, but 19 it is likely random. A 3-1 ML (if it's accurate) will win about 25% anyway, a and a few more losses will have you there. Don't take the rubber band off on this one.

castaway01
08-29-2015, 01:07 PM
19 races is not enough to base any kind of trend on. If you had 200 races I would take a look, but 19 it is likely random. A 3-1 ML (if it's accurate) will win about 25% anyway, a and a few more losses will have you there. Don't take the rubber band off on this one.

If anything (and really, there shouldn't be any bets made because of these stats) they'd make me bet AGAINST the 3-1 ML horses in the future because you know eventually the results will regress to the mean. At least if it's a trainer stat it tells you the trainer is firing with maidens, or layoff horses, or whatever. These "the 3-1 shots are finishing in the money" stats are just short-term trends.

TheOracle
08-29-2015, 09:35 PM
If anything (and really, there shouldn't be any bets made because of these stats) they'd make me bet AGAINST the 3-1 ML horses in the future because you know eventually the results will regress to the mean. At least if it's a trainer stat it tells you the trainer is firing with maidens, or layoff horses, or whatever. These "the 3-1 shots are finishing in the money" stats are just short-term trends.

Hey Cast,

Yes, these trends are definitely short term.

I was really hoping that #7 Force could have continued the streak of the 3/1 Morning Line Favorites hitting the board at 1 Mile or better on the Dirt to 12 in a row but he ran 4th snapping the streak at 11 in a row in the money!!!

The painful part of the loss is that there were only 6 horses in that race ....those are the breaks!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml threeonedrtfvhlf.jpg


However, #2 Sheer Drama pulled out a win today in the 6th race and so 12 of the last 13 have hit the board safely in this situation and we'll have to wait for another streak to happen for the remaining days of the season at the Spa!!!

Let's see what happens on Monday with #5 Prospero in the 8th race !!!

Race 8
#5 Prospero

TheOracle
08-31-2015, 11:02 PM
Well #5 Prospero came through today with a win and paid $12.90 across the board the 3/1 in the Morning Lines on the Dirt going 1 Mile or better at Saratoga continue to hit the board!!!

Although the streak was snapped, at 11 in a row hitting the board, the last 2 in this situation have won their respective races!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml threeonetwonew.jpg

Congratulations to those who saw the play and was able to make a profit!!!

Let's see if we can get another streak going to finish out the season at the Spa !!!

TheOracle
09-07-2015, 01:45 PM
There is a 3/1 in the Morning Line on the Dirt today at Saratoga going 1 1/8 Miles in the 5th race today:


Race 5
#1A Mr Palmer

Let's see if #1A Mr Palmer can close out the season at Saratoga with another 3/1 Morning Line hitting the board at 1 Mile or better on the Dirt!!!

TheOracle
09-08-2015, 09:34 PM
Well it looks like #1A Mr. Palmer hit the board yesterday and grabbed the show spot for the Morning Line 3/1's going 1 Mile or better on the Dirt at Saratoga!!

As a whole, the Morning Line 3/1's hit the board in 22 out of 24 races going 1 Mile or better on the Dirt at Saratoga.

In addition, the Morning Line 3/1's had 11 wins during that span which is a 45% win percentage you also received an 87% return for a $2 win wager in this situation!!

If you were more conservative you got a 71% return on your money if you wagered $2 to win, place and show each time. It would have cost you $144 and you would have won $247 giving you a return of $103 for your efforts!!


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/threeonemlsardrt.jpg

Those who were ultra conservative in this situation and just wagered $2 to show each time it cost you $48 and you won $71.10 which is a profit of $23.10 giving you a 48% return on your money!!


I wish I had spotted this in the beginning of the Saratoga season!!!