Ever Go Back More Than 10 Races On a Horse?

[maddog42]

I have lost 3 High Paying Races in the last 2 weeks, when I didn't have a representative pace-line pick in the last 10. Curiosity drove me to equibase and dig out those 11 and 12 races back. I don't think I am crazy here.

[Valuist]

Absolutely. What if its soft turf and the horse has no soft turf races in its last 10 races but raced on yielding 14 back and soft 20 back? Same thing with off tracks or racing at distances the horse hasn't raced at in a while. One of the best things about Formulator is to be able to see all the races in a horse's career.

[DeltaLover]

I have lost 3 High Paying Races in the last 2 weeks, when I didn't have a representative pace-line pick in the last 10. Curiosity drove me to equibase and dig out those 11 and 12 races back. I don't think I am crazy here.

Absolutely no.

The more races you are going to consider, digging into the past of a horse, the more undecided you are going to become and the more complicated your data are going to look..

[Pick 'em Charlie]

I'd like to have 12 lines per horse available.

[maddog42]

Absolutely. What if its soft turf and the horse has no soft turf races in its last 10 races but raced on yielding 14 back and soft 20 back? Same thing with off tracks or racing at distances the horse hasn't raced at in a while. One of the best things about Formulator is to be able to see all the races in a horse's career.

Two of the 3 were turf races and I wanted to look at a representative distance (sprint).

[Tom]

I have gone back more than 10 when the situation warranted it, but I made sure that I thought the horse was capable of running back to it, or improving on it.

Say the horse ran over a sloppy track last year at Saratoga and won easily, earning Beyers of 88, 87, 91 prior to the win.

Today is Toga and it is sloppy and he has figures of 92, 88, 95 coming in.
I have no problem using that old race for a velocity pace line.

[RXB]

Cheap turf races, where contestants might have few or even zero races on the grass in their recent record. Happens fairly frequently in northern areas.

[maddog42]

The pace line "window" that I open is a combination of Pizzolla, and my own handycapping theories. I know it works. It is designed to pick high paying horses and I don't care much if I lose 10 in a row. I throw those horses into my oddsline and do a little contender manipulation.

[EMD4ME]

Absolutely, YES. You also can find patterns that are not visible with 10 race PP's. For example: If a horse has run 46 times, how the trainer prepares the horse off a layoff/2nd off a layoff/3rd off layoff. I've caught many winners analyzing what a trainer's MO is with a SPECIFIC horse.

[Stillriledup]

I dig back all the time. sometimes a horse will have one lifetime turf start way off the page and you want to see the race he was in. Same goes true for off tracks. If its a young horse with 14 lifetime starts i would be more inclined to go back to see how his career started than a grizzled vet with 100 starts.

[LottaKash]

I like to look back further than 10 lines, when I am not familiar with any particular horse be it, a shipper, or off of a lay....

But mostly I use as many lines as I can dig up, to try to get a more valuable feel for "where a horse may be in his current form-cycle"...

[biggestal99]

I look at the entire record for each horse i handicap, esp a cycle horse (ie layoff, 1 off, 2 off, etc.) And see how he,s done in similar circumstaces, also esp for short meetings such as saratoga, i like to see what he's done there and sometimes the only way to to look at the lfetime.

Allan

[ultracapper]

I look at the entire record for each horse i handicap, esp a cycle horse (ie layoff, 1 off, 2 off, etc.) And see how he,s done in similar circumstaces, also esp for short meetings such as saratoga, i like to see what he's done there and sometimes the only way to to look at the lfetime.

Allan

I've posted before how trainers will prepare specifically for Del Mar. Sometimes you have to go back into some of the trainer's other horse's PPs to see how (s)he prepared some of the winners in past meets. Barry Abrams and Peter Miller are two trainers that get their horses ready for Del Mar the same way, year in and year out. You really need to do this with the older horses that have won there. It's very informative to see how that horse was prepared for Del Mar the year, or even 2 years, previously. Whenever I see an entry with a win at Del Mar, I want to see the road taken to get to the winner's circle. Then, look at that trainer's younger runners to see if the same preparations have been made. A couple years ago, Miller was around 30% with horses off 61-180 days in something like a 30 horse sample. Of those 9 winners, 7 of them had won at Del Mar the previous 2 years. They accounted for only 11 or 12 of the 30 layoff horses, meaning he was like 2 for 19 or so when entering at Santa Anita or Hollywood off a 61-180 day layoff. You had to dig to find that stuff. Of course, Miller has a rep there anyhow, as he grew up right around there. He loves to win there.

[NY BRED]

ONE OF THE REASONS PLAYERS USE THE SHEETS

I BELIEVE DRF OFFERS THIS SERVICE.

[raybo]

Ever Go Back More Than 10 Races On a Horse?

Nope, except for the earnings box stats.

[highnote]

Yes. Mark Cramer has a good angle that I use on occasion.

I think he calls it the "overachiever". A horse wins at long odds and today he is entered in a similar circumstance.

Back in 1994 Pistols and Roses was entered in the Donn Handicap. I noticed that he had won the Donn the previous year at 44-1, but the 1993 Donn did not show up in the print version of DRF because it only showed 10 past races at that time. I had a database where I could see a horse's lifetime history. I bet Pistols and Roses in the 1994 Donn and I think he won at something like 7-1.