Teach
08-24-2015, 11:44 AM
Race One:
6 ½ Furlongs MSW New York state-breds 2-year-old fillies.
I see that NYRA odds-maker, Eric Donovan, has installed 6, Frosty Margarita, as the prohibitive 3-to-5 ML fave. Personally, I have my doubts. I believe this horse is vulnerable. More on that later. I further believe that there are four horses in this stretch-out sprint that are major players: :5: , :6: , :4: , :1: Two of those horses come out of the Lemon Liqueur race on opening day. My choice: :5: Flatware. This 2-year-old A.P. Indy-bred grey filly was initially part of “a sandwich job” leaving the gate. This Flatter-bred was then guided to the rail by Joel Rosario (yet, by this time, there were a wall of horses in front of her in this large-field race). This Mark Hennig-trainee then remained on or near the rail throughout the sprint. This filly just didn’t have the room or a path “to run to daylight”. Yet, she finished with “good energy”. In a nutshell, with a cleaner trip, this filly is most capable of breaking her maiden. Joel Rosario reprises the ride. As a footnote, about a week ago, the filly turned in a solid morning work; she breezed four panels in a tick over :48.
Others to consider: :6: Frosty Margarita; :4: Lady’s First; :1: Legend of Lorelei
Race Two:
5 ½ Furlongs 25k claiming sprint on turf
Do I make a case for the front-runner, or do I go with the closer in this turf sprint? Is it the tortoise or the hare? I’m going to make a case for “the closer”. This Kitten’s Joy-bred gelding must… Yes, I repeat he must get into the game early to be a factor here. In fact, tangentially, I believe this is a race that might well have “a blanket finish”; it’s that’s close between the participants. I’m talking about :8: Liberal Spin. This El Prado-bred wants to go longer. He enjoys more real estate to launch his closing bid. Yet, having said that, this Tale of the Cat-bred 5-year-old can, with the ideal trip, win this race. Jockey Jose Ortiz must time his ride, perfectly. As an addendum: this horse is dropping back into the claiming ranks after a try against allowance types during the meet’s first week. Jim Toner’s a solid trainer who’s had reasonable success with turf starts.
Others to consider: :7: Mish Mosh; :1: Great Attack; :5: Make My Saturday
Race Three:
6 Furlongs Allowance n1x
The past is prologue. My choice…in this short-field allowance sprint is the outside horse, :6: Paris Bikini. I know that some of the pundits and prognosticators have ignored this Bernardini-bred filly, but I, for one, believe she has a solid a chance of winning this race. Allow me to lay out my racing brief: Make no mistake, this is “one classy dame!” Not including today’s race, this 3-year-old A.P. Indy-bred has had only three races since her “Coming-Out Party,” a MSW, that she easily won last September at Belmont. Since then, this filly has been entered in some high-priced “cotillions,” the Grade II Matron (she went off the chalk but finished fifth) and, more recently, a non-graded stakes at Monmouth (she also finished fifth). Now. Today. Here. She catches a field she can defeat. If she runs back to her maiden-breaking late-summer win, this horse will prevail. One of the best conditioners in thoroughbred racing, Todd Pletcher, is the filly’s trainer. One of the best jockeys in the country, Javier Castellano, is in the irons. What’s not to like?
Others to consider: :2: Callista; :5: Regent’s House; :1: Two Taps
Race Four:
6 Furlongs 25k maiden-claiming sprint for New York State-breds
In this first leg of the Pick 6, I like four horses. Instead of picking just one and then citing three others, I’m going to comment on all four: :2: Yourcreditisgood was last seen at Belmont clipping heels and unseating her rider. Yet, this 3-year-old Noonmark-bred has faced better throughout her racing career. In a race that appears to set up for a closer, this filly may just possibly be the one. Yet, quite frankly, her jockey, “Izzy” Rodriguez, is not a household name. The filly’s trainer, Joe Orseno, is most capable, yet with a limited number of charges. The morning works are mediocre. Everything must go perfectly. Then again, it just might. :4: Little Mary Ellen is most intriguing. It’s like an Agatha Christie mystery novel. A router turning back to a sprint. A turf horse running on the main. A drop in class. The switch to a Hall of Fame jockey. A mediocre set of morning works. A trainer who has the knack of winning this kind of race. In a nutshell, this is: “Who Done It?”. Or, maybe, “Who Will Do It?” I’m giving this A.P. Indy-bred, Mike Trombetta-trained, a lot of attention. Then, there's :8: Shotgun Love. Junior Alvarado for Dom Schettino. This Posse-bred filly was leading in her last on a muddy track but ended up fading to fourth. This filly’s shown forward speed in her MSW races. If she has any chance of prevailing, she must carry her speed the full six panels. Oh, a recent solid 5-panels “bullet” work signals readiness. If she ever gets loose…Finally, :7: Twisted Cat Tale is a first-time starter with sprinting pedigree that can surprise. Tough to judge, yet the dame, Twist and Pop, had five winners from five starters and one stakes winner. Manny Franco is in the irons for Michelle Nevin. Trainer Nevin does well with horses entered in maiden-claiming races.
Race Five:
An allowance turf route non-winners of 2, lifetime:
Can a horse put other horses “to sleep”? Holy equine hypnotists, Batman! I’m talking about :6: Elementsofharmony. This Danzig-bred 3-year-old filly (she went off at 22-1) won at first asking in mid-July at Belmont; it was a gate-to-wire job, pulling away in the stretch, at this very same distance on the grass. Question: If she once again makes the lead… Can history repeat itself? The razor-sharp reinsman, Luis Saez, is once again in the irons for trainer Rudy Rodriguez. Trainer Rodriguez does very well with maiden winners. A recent sharp four-furlong work signals readiness.
Others to consider: :4: Dating Lady Luck; :3: My Sweet Girl; :1: Tapitry
Race Six:
MSW Main-track Route:
:4: Captain Tim was bumped early and lost all chance of winning in this same general MSW company in late-July at “The Spa”. A cleaner trip… Prior to his last one, this Candy Ride-bred colt narrowly missed breaking his maiden. This Ride the Rails-bred was the approx. two-to-one fave in his last. A chance to make amends. Junior Alvarado reprises the ride for trainer John Shirrefs. Sherriffs does well with horses that were beaten favorites.
Others to consider: :8: Securitiz, :1: All Rise; :6: Sharm
Race Seven:
OC Turf Route, One Mile, New York State-breds, n2x:
7 Wildniteattheopera (wild day at the NYSE) is my pick. This Wild Again-bred grey gelding was second against similar at Belmont about a month and a half ago. Slight cut-back helps. Actually lead late in previous race. Jockey Joel Rosario’s a plus. He reprises the ride for trainer Mark Hennig. Some decent morning works leading up to this race. Connections found out that this 4-year-old gelding can handle the turf.
Others to consider: :5: Readtheprospectus; :9: Birchwood Road; :4: Hidden Vow
Race Eight:
The Non-Graded Summer Colony Stakes, One Mile and One-Eighth On The Main:
:5: Samantha Nicole gets my tepid nod. This Medaglia d’Oro-bred filly has hit the tote in all four of her recent starts. She admittedly disappointed as the favorite in her last against weaker. A chance to make amends. Johnny V. is in the irons for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. Trainer McLaughlin is having a very good meet; he does very well in non-graded stakes races. This El Prado-bred filly should be coming on in the stretch; any speed up front would enhance her chances of getting her picture taken. A solid recent four-furlongs work signals readiness.
Others to consider: :1: Tiz So Sweet; :4: Montana Native; :3: Catch My Drift
Race Nine:
Maiden-claiming Turf Route:
:3: Weekend Hottie went off as a 7-2 shot on opening day at “The Spa” and finished a closing sixth in a large-field, similar turf route race. The added “teenth” should enhance this horses chances. The Liston, Louisiana native, “The King of Philadelphia,” the red-hot Kendrick Carmouche, is in the irons for an unknown (at least to me) Ken Steicher. This trainer has had a limited sampling of race performances to draw any definite conclusions. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. This Sun King-bred filly is adding blinkers. That could make a difference.
Others to consider: :9: Q T Bird; :7: Confessa; :4: Justenuffdior
6 ½ Furlongs MSW New York state-breds 2-year-old fillies.
I see that NYRA odds-maker, Eric Donovan, has installed 6, Frosty Margarita, as the prohibitive 3-to-5 ML fave. Personally, I have my doubts. I believe this horse is vulnerable. More on that later. I further believe that there are four horses in this stretch-out sprint that are major players: :5: , :6: , :4: , :1: Two of those horses come out of the Lemon Liqueur race on opening day. My choice: :5: Flatware. This 2-year-old A.P. Indy-bred grey filly was initially part of “a sandwich job” leaving the gate. This Flatter-bred was then guided to the rail by Joel Rosario (yet, by this time, there were a wall of horses in front of her in this large-field race). This Mark Hennig-trainee then remained on or near the rail throughout the sprint. This filly just didn’t have the room or a path “to run to daylight”. Yet, she finished with “good energy”. In a nutshell, with a cleaner trip, this filly is most capable of breaking her maiden. Joel Rosario reprises the ride. As a footnote, about a week ago, the filly turned in a solid morning work; she breezed four panels in a tick over :48.
Others to consider: :6: Frosty Margarita; :4: Lady’s First; :1: Legend of Lorelei
Race Two:
5 ½ Furlongs 25k claiming sprint on turf
Do I make a case for the front-runner, or do I go with the closer in this turf sprint? Is it the tortoise or the hare? I’m going to make a case for “the closer”. This Kitten’s Joy-bred gelding must… Yes, I repeat he must get into the game early to be a factor here. In fact, tangentially, I believe this is a race that might well have “a blanket finish”; it’s that’s close between the participants. I’m talking about :8: Liberal Spin. This El Prado-bred wants to go longer. He enjoys more real estate to launch his closing bid. Yet, having said that, this Tale of the Cat-bred 5-year-old can, with the ideal trip, win this race. Jockey Jose Ortiz must time his ride, perfectly. As an addendum: this horse is dropping back into the claiming ranks after a try against allowance types during the meet’s first week. Jim Toner’s a solid trainer who’s had reasonable success with turf starts.
Others to consider: :7: Mish Mosh; :1: Great Attack; :5: Make My Saturday
Race Three:
6 Furlongs Allowance n1x
The past is prologue. My choice…in this short-field allowance sprint is the outside horse, :6: Paris Bikini. I know that some of the pundits and prognosticators have ignored this Bernardini-bred filly, but I, for one, believe she has a solid a chance of winning this race. Allow me to lay out my racing brief: Make no mistake, this is “one classy dame!” Not including today’s race, this 3-year-old A.P. Indy-bred has had only three races since her “Coming-Out Party,” a MSW, that she easily won last September at Belmont. Since then, this filly has been entered in some high-priced “cotillions,” the Grade II Matron (she went off the chalk but finished fifth) and, more recently, a non-graded stakes at Monmouth (she also finished fifth). Now. Today. Here. She catches a field she can defeat. If she runs back to her maiden-breaking late-summer win, this horse will prevail. One of the best conditioners in thoroughbred racing, Todd Pletcher, is the filly’s trainer. One of the best jockeys in the country, Javier Castellano, is in the irons. What’s not to like?
Others to consider: :2: Callista; :5: Regent’s House; :1: Two Taps
Race Four:
6 Furlongs 25k maiden-claiming sprint for New York State-breds
In this first leg of the Pick 6, I like four horses. Instead of picking just one and then citing three others, I’m going to comment on all four: :2: Yourcreditisgood was last seen at Belmont clipping heels and unseating her rider. Yet, this 3-year-old Noonmark-bred has faced better throughout her racing career. In a race that appears to set up for a closer, this filly may just possibly be the one. Yet, quite frankly, her jockey, “Izzy” Rodriguez, is not a household name. The filly’s trainer, Joe Orseno, is most capable, yet with a limited number of charges. The morning works are mediocre. Everything must go perfectly. Then again, it just might. :4: Little Mary Ellen is most intriguing. It’s like an Agatha Christie mystery novel. A router turning back to a sprint. A turf horse running on the main. A drop in class. The switch to a Hall of Fame jockey. A mediocre set of morning works. A trainer who has the knack of winning this kind of race. In a nutshell, this is: “Who Done It?”. Or, maybe, “Who Will Do It?” I’m giving this A.P. Indy-bred, Mike Trombetta-trained, a lot of attention. Then, there's :8: Shotgun Love. Junior Alvarado for Dom Schettino. This Posse-bred filly was leading in her last on a muddy track but ended up fading to fourth. This filly’s shown forward speed in her MSW races. If she has any chance of prevailing, she must carry her speed the full six panels. Oh, a recent solid 5-panels “bullet” work signals readiness. If she ever gets loose…Finally, :7: Twisted Cat Tale is a first-time starter with sprinting pedigree that can surprise. Tough to judge, yet the dame, Twist and Pop, had five winners from five starters and one stakes winner. Manny Franco is in the irons for Michelle Nevin. Trainer Nevin does well with horses entered in maiden-claiming races.
Race Five:
An allowance turf route non-winners of 2, lifetime:
Can a horse put other horses “to sleep”? Holy equine hypnotists, Batman! I’m talking about :6: Elementsofharmony. This Danzig-bred 3-year-old filly (she went off at 22-1) won at first asking in mid-July at Belmont; it was a gate-to-wire job, pulling away in the stretch, at this very same distance on the grass. Question: If she once again makes the lead… Can history repeat itself? The razor-sharp reinsman, Luis Saez, is once again in the irons for trainer Rudy Rodriguez. Trainer Rodriguez does very well with maiden winners. A recent sharp four-furlong work signals readiness.
Others to consider: :4: Dating Lady Luck; :3: My Sweet Girl; :1: Tapitry
Race Six:
MSW Main-track Route:
:4: Captain Tim was bumped early and lost all chance of winning in this same general MSW company in late-July at “The Spa”. A cleaner trip… Prior to his last one, this Candy Ride-bred colt narrowly missed breaking his maiden. This Ride the Rails-bred was the approx. two-to-one fave in his last. A chance to make amends. Junior Alvarado reprises the ride for trainer John Shirrefs. Sherriffs does well with horses that were beaten favorites.
Others to consider: :8: Securitiz, :1: All Rise; :6: Sharm
Race Seven:
OC Turf Route, One Mile, New York State-breds, n2x:
7 Wildniteattheopera (wild day at the NYSE) is my pick. This Wild Again-bred grey gelding was second against similar at Belmont about a month and a half ago. Slight cut-back helps. Actually lead late in previous race. Jockey Joel Rosario’s a plus. He reprises the ride for trainer Mark Hennig. Some decent morning works leading up to this race. Connections found out that this 4-year-old gelding can handle the turf.
Others to consider: :5: Readtheprospectus; :9: Birchwood Road; :4: Hidden Vow
Race Eight:
The Non-Graded Summer Colony Stakes, One Mile and One-Eighth On The Main:
:5: Samantha Nicole gets my tepid nod. This Medaglia d’Oro-bred filly has hit the tote in all four of her recent starts. She admittedly disappointed as the favorite in her last against weaker. A chance to make amends. Johnny V. is in the irons for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. Trainer McLaughlin is having a very good meet; he does very well in non-graded stakes races. This El Prado-bred filly should be coming on in the stretch; any speed up front would enhance her chances of getting her picture taken. A solid recent four-furlongs work signals readiness.
Others to consider: :1: Tiz So Sweet; :4: Montana Native; :3: Catch My Drift
Race Nine:
Maiden-claiming Turf Route:
:3: Weekend Hottie went off as a 7-2 shot on opening day at “The Spa” and finished a closing sixth in a large-field, similar turf route race. The added “teenth” should enhance this horses chances. The Liston, Louisiana native, “The King of Philadelphia,” the red-hot Kendrick Carmouche, is in the irons for an unknown (at least to me) Ken Steicher. This trainer has had a limited sampling of race performances to draw any definite conclusions. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. This Sun King-bred filly is adding blinkers. That could make a difference.
Others to consider: :9: Q T Bird; :7: Confessa; :4: Justenuffdior