The key to the mint in handicapping

[Stillriledup]

Learn to watch warmups.

Youre welcome. ;)

[NorCalGreg]

Learn to watch warmups.

Youre welcome. ;)

Anything in particular to watch for?

[Stillriledup]

Anything in particular to watch for?

How the horse moves, disposition, coat, general body language, etc. it really comes down to being very observant and remembering how horses look from race to race, a lot of it is trial and error and learning the horse as an individual.

[green80]

watch how they pull up and/or gallop out after the race

[NorCalGreg]

watch how they pull up and/or gallop out after the race


Interesting you guys mention this ....I've never paid much attn to this part of handicapping...always more interested in numbers, angles, etc. Exactly 1 week ago Sunday the 16th, 4th race, @ Mountaineer, for some reason a horse named FLATTER YOU caught my eye. He had just won easily....and this horse literally strutted back to the winner's circle-like he was the baddest horse on the grounds. Trust me, I wasn't looking for anything--this horse just stood out! I put FLATTER YOU on my Watch list and started paying attn, so thanks G-80 and SRU for posting.

[Stillriledup]

You're welcome!

G80 has a good tidbit, if you go to the track live watch the gallop outs and watch the horses come back to be unsaddled, you can learn a lot watching them come back.

[Robert Goren]

Anything in particular to watch for?Most of the time they don't show the horse's feet during the post parade, but if they do look for a horse that is prancing. It is very bad sign. That is not say that 2 or 3 times a year that a prancer will win, but most of the time they won't. There is generally at least one prancer in a race, often more. Usually its is a long shot, but I have seen 3/5 prancers lose too. An old trainer told me about this nearly 50 years ago and it has always worked me.

[MutuelClerk]

Especially true in harness racing where they go two or three trips on the track. The younger they are the more they reveal.

[delayjf]

Most of the time they don't show the horse's feet during the post parade, but if they do look for a horse that is prancing

I always thought seeing a horse on his toes was a good thing. Is that the same thing as prancing?

[no breathalyzer]

Learn to watch warmups.

Youre welcome. ;)


this is why i don't like betting pick 3's and 4's... i always watch warm ups before big bets

[NorCalGreg]

I always thought seeing a horse on his toes was a good thing. Is that the same thing as prancing?

In addition to delayjf's question...someone skilled in equine body language please answer this also: What is a horse saying when he constantly nods his head up and down---I See this all the time pre-race...is he assuring bettors not to worry.. he's got this? Seriously,is there any meaning attached to this?

[Stillriledup]

In addition to delayjf's question...someone skilled in equine body language please answer this also: What is a horse saying when he constantly nods his head up and down---I See this all the time pre-race...is he assuring bettors not to worry.. he's got this? Seriously,is there any meaning attached to this?

Depends on the horse and how much experience he or she has, first time starters I wouldn't like to see anything less than calm and focused, if you are a grizzled veteran, I wouldn't mind it as much. Generally though I would prefer the horse calm, nothing the horse is doing with his head that you mention is a positive, it's either neutral or negative.

[green80]

most horseplayers are not skilled enough in a horse's body language to get much out of the post parade. If a horse is off bad enough that the average horseplayer notices, he will never get past the track vet. Many horses that appear nervous or washed out still run well. All but the most experienced horseman would be much better off putting their handicapping efforts in other areas of the game.

[sammy the sage]

somebody here forgot to tell Zenyatta about prancing....

[ReplayRandall]

somebody here forgot to tell Zenyatta about prancing....

Seattle Slew as well.....

[no breathalyzer]

Race #4 today at Sar. the :7: horse made it past the vet somehow? As the post parade was going and then the warm ups i was thinking to my self boy the poor horse looks lame.. sure enough 5 mins later the announcement came in and horse was a late scratch. This happens more then it should.. like i said i need to see the warm up. if making a big bet, i focus on basically only nyra tacks nowadays since my local racing went to the toilet. i keep a notebook on horses appearances start to start

[CosmicWon]

Depends on the horse and how much experience he or she has, first time starters I wouldn't like to see anything less than calm and focused, if you are a grizzled veteran, I wouldn't mind it as much. Generally though I would prefer the horse calm, nothing the horse is doing with his head that you mention is a positive, it's either neutral or negative.
I agree with this. On 2yos, calm, fit, and obedient is what you want. Often you can tell who is more fit for a maiden based on how well-developed the muscle is that runs along the back of their rump. Well-defined=lots of stiff conditioning. Poor/little definition of that semitendinosus muscle=needs races and conditions. Often those will look a little chubby and soft.

I won with May Flowers on Saturday just from looking up and seeing her look confident, fit, glistening coat, and relaxed but with energy. She had her mind on business and I hadn't opened a PP but bet her at 7/2 and she won off like a good thing.

Pletcher's always look good and they (especially older ones) also tend to not so much shake their heads but stretch their necks out while in the walking ring. Palace Malice does this. Tonalist also will stretch out long too. Don't know the reason why but it wouldn't put me off a horse.

What will is sweaty, acting flighty or distracted, naughty behavior in paddock, and especially if these happen with fillies or mares. Shackleford ran fine when sweaty as sea foam but avoid on most horses.

Dapples are my favorite thing to see on a horse in the paddock pre-race. Means they are literally "blooming" from the inside out and in superior condition and often run to those looks.

[lsosa54]

Learn to watch warmups.

Youre welcome. ;)

Let me know how that goes for you. Win % and ROI would be helpful.

[no breathalyzer]

it would be hard to prove but i bet i could out pick a whole lot of people on this board by watching warm up and loading the gate alone.. if i feel the need for action bets i never even look at pp's anymore at the lower level tracks

[hracingplyr]

I think the reason you see a horses head nodding up and down is because the :D pony horse next to him asked him or her if they saw last nights episode of Mr Ed.

[NorCalGreg]

I think the reason you see a horses head nodding up and down is because the :D pony horse next to him asked him or her if they saw last nights episode of Mr Ed.

Was that the show where the horse talked---until someone else came in the room...then the horse wouldn't talk anymore and made the guy look crazy? Never saw it. :D :D :D

Anyhoo, thanks for the feedback. Did a little research. The nodding thing is definitely not a bad sign, but swaying the head back and forth is. Funny, huh?
This sums it up without going into too much detail
http://americashorsedaily.com/a-sure-bet-evaluate-each-racehorse/#.Vdyp7PlVikp

[maddog42]

According to Takach and Ledbetter, walking short and airplane or donkey ears were negatives. Walking short is the back hoof not covering or not reaching the front footprint. This is often hard to see on the video or small tv. Ears pricked forward is good, alert and ready. Ears airplaning or sideways is bad.

[Grits]

According to Takach and Ledbetter, walking short and airplane or donkey ears were negatives. Walking short is the back hoof not covering or not reaching the front footprint. This is often hard to see on the video or small tv. Ears pricked forward is good, alert and ready. Ears airplaning or sideways is bad.

Walking short is far easier to detect while sitting at the track watching the post parade. Too, their hind is much easier to compare and note.

[Bennie]

I used to go to Monmouth park a couple of times a year during live racing and would always make sure I watched the horses when they walked them in the ring prior to the race and always watched for short walkers. One thing I will never forget is the time I swear a horse was wearing a "sanitary napkin" and joked to my wife and her sister about it saying not to bet this horse because she was mid cycle. The race went off and this horse took off and grabbed the lead and stayed there until they hit the far turn. She started to fade and I said she must be cramping up. Finished next to last.
I honestly don't know what "equipment" the horse was wearing but we still joke about it.

[NorCalGreg]

Wow...was looking at Mountaineer races today--had a horse picked out...remembered to actually LOOK at the horses. Saw one that I though had some positive signal(looked like he wanted to get out there and run) , then another, and the big favorite looked very good...most of the others seemed more interested in the pony horse and were sorta being led along by the pony rider. So I didn't get crazy, just an experiment really, I cancelled my win bet and boxed the 3 horses that seemed interested in running- in a $1 Trifecta for $6 total AND THEY RAN 1-2-3! This is my post on the MNR thread. Paid $48.80

just by how the horses look....... :8: :5: :3: trifecta 2nd race

[raybo]

Learn to watch warmups.

Youre welcome. ;)

Thanks, now I can go out, watch some warmups and get rich. :jump:

[raybo]

According to Takach and Ledbetter, walking short and airplane or donkey ears were negatives. Walking short is the back hoof not covering or not reaching the front footprint. This is often hard to see on the video or small tv. Ears pricked forward is good, alert and ready. Ears airplaning or sideways is bad.

Funny, I've read from several sources that ears pricked and pointing forward is not a good sign (not interested or paying attention), ears pricked with one ear rotating back and forth is a good sign (interested and paying attention). :bang: Every horse is different, trying to look at tail swishing, sweating, dappled coat, ears pricked and forward, arched neck on the muscle, etc., won't help you a bit unless you know each horse in the race, extensively. So, if you're going to take this approach, you better be watching every horse in every race they have run in the past several months or so. Otherwise, you're just guessing, IMO of course. But, all you guys go ahead, I'll stick with my "numbers".

[ultracapper]

Bowed neck is a positive, so I've heard.

[thaskalos]

I have noticed that some horses possess the type of "professionalism" that allows them to get on with the business at hand even when they are not in the "best of moods". They may appear listless or "bored" in the post parade and the warm-ups...but they brighten up considerably when they reach the gate...and they move right in and run their race. I think it's folly to think that a horse's pre-race mood is as "predictive" as we sometimes make it. Some of these horses are battle-tested veterans...and they know that the work needs to get done even when they would rather be someplace else.

Kinda like their human counterparts.

[Stillriledup]

I have noticed that some horses possess the type of "professionalism" that allows them to get on with the business at hand even when they are not in the "best of moods". They may appear listless or "bored" in the post parade and the warm-ups...but they brighten up considerably when they reach the gate...and they move right in and run their race. I think it's folly to think that a horse's pre-race mood is as "predictive" as we sometimes make it. Some of these horses are battle-tested veterans...and they know that the work needs to get done even when they would rather be someplace else.

Kinda like their human counterparts.

Good points and let me clarify something, the warmups you're watching are intertwined with knowing the horse and his race day tendencies as well as his talent and gameness level and how he fits in the race on other factors, I wouldn't recommend blindly betting a great warmup on a horse who you think is too slow to win.

[Grits]

Good points and let me clarify something, the warmups you're watching are intertwined with knowing the horse and his race day tendencies as well as his talent and gameness level and how he fits in the race on other factors, I wouldn't recommend blindly betting a great warmup on a horse who you think is too slow to win.

Don't believe anyone has stated that they'd blindly bet without past performances. How silly... to even attempt. Still, watching 2 year olds is beneficial when you're just feet away from them.

[no breathalyzer]

Sar. race #1 the :6: horse looked like absolute dog sh** and ran like it at 6/5

[NorCalGreg]

Thanks, now I can go out, watch some warmups and get rich. :jump:


:lol: way to kill my "winners buzz" raybo...this was my next post on the MNR selection thread--I had dismissed this horse immediately at first glance:

Well damn.....I hit that nice tri in the 2nd based on how the horses looked.....then in the 4th, the ugliest, knock-kneed rearing-up mule-looking :7: horse runs away and wins it LOL guess I got more research to do :(