Advanced Analytics Coming to Racing?

[peteman]

Statts LLC and Equibase to develop new stats for horse players.

Which brings to mind what type of stat or formula, would we like to see?
I'd like to see some type of pace pressure gauge,in the pp's to help point
out if the race will go early or late.

Story link
http://www.paulickreport.com/news/the-biz/equibase-enters-partnership-with-sports-tech-company-stats/

[AndyC]

Statts LLC and Equibase to develop new stats for horse players.

Which brings to mind what type of stat or formula, would we like to see?
I'd like to see some type of pace pressure gauge,in the pp's to help point
out if the race will go early or late.

Story link
http://www.paulickreport.com/news/the-biz/equibase-enters-partnership-with-sports-tech-company-stats/

Be careful what you wish for. Back in the good old days in the 70s, the west coast DRF did not show internal fractions for races in the PPs. I kept extensive records of the fractions and was able to get unbelievable prices on horses that had a substantial pace advantage. Of course the advantage quickly disappeared when the DRF did me a "favor" by printing the fractions.

The only info that I want to be readily available is the info I don't use or won't use but might have the same affect on other players as fractions did to me.

[classhandicapper]

Be careful what you wish for. Back in the good old days in the 70s, the west coast DRF did not show internal fractions for races in the PPs. I kept extensive records of the fractions and was able to get unbelievable prices on horses that had a substantial pace advantage. Of course the advantage quickly disappeared when the DRF did me a "favor" by printing the fractions.

The only info that I want to be readily available is the info I don't use or won't use but might have the same affect on other players as fractions did to me.

I agree 100%.

All my energy goes into things that are NOT in the PPs or in ways of using things that are in the PPs better.

[Valuist]

No good horse bettor is going to want more information in the DRF (unless they deem it irrelevant). It's getting more and more difficult to get any edge.

Having said that, I really wonder what STATS could bring to the table. They don't have experience in the sport. And as sports bettors know, SOME analytics are valuable, but some create distortions.

[thaskalos]

I see the affect that TRAKUS has had on the handicapping process...and I remain sceptical.

[Chaka26]

I see the affect that TRAKUS has had on the handicapping process...and I remain sceptical.
Chicklets sure help me watching races

[Stillriledup]

Statts LLC and Equibase to develop new stats for horse players.

Which brings to mind what type of stat or formula, would we like to see?
I'd like to see some type of pace pressure gauge,in the pp's to help point
out if the race will go early or late.

Story link
http://www.paulickreport.com/news/the-biz/equibase-enters-partnership-with-sports-tech-company-stats/

The game needs to get harder, not easier.

Stuff like this just makes the market more efficient, which in turn makes the takeout harder to beat. If every horse's odds are exactly as they should be, that means every horse is theoretically neg 15 (or whatever the takeout is) ROI.

[ReplayRandall]

The game needs to get harder, not easier.

Stuff like this just makes the market more efficient, which in turn makes the takeout harder to beat. If every horse's odds are exactly as they should be, that means every horse is theoretically neg 15 (or whatever the takeout is) ROI.

I want as many commercial/analytic programs developed and sold as cheaply as possible. The more players these programs keep in the game the better, and just might draw in enough new players for the game to survive until full contraction takes place......Nothing will duplicate what I do, thus no dilution problems for me.

[whodoyoulike]

I agree 100%.

All my energy goes into things that are NOT in the PPs or in ways of using things that are in the PPs better.

I also agree. I think I spend more time watching the body language in the paddock, post parade and replays than the PP's. Hopefully, this area will be very difficult to report in printed form.

[classhandicapper]

Chicklets sure help me watching races

Me too.

The best use of Trakus is that it makes following horses in big fields easier both during the running of the race and by using the web page in follow up.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

The game needs to get harder, not easier.

Stuff like this just makes the market more efficient, which in turn makes the takeout harder to beat. If every horse's odds are exactly as they should be, that means every horse is theoretically neg 15 (or whatever the takeout is) ROI.

A set of new products doesn't necessarily mean "the public" will automatically use that data correctly . Look at some of the stats in use today - a lot of players don't even know what sample size and distribution mean.

Analytics is in its infancy with many applications and uses, and I think we're a long, long way from "every horse's odds are exactly as they should be...."

[AndyC]

A set of new products doesn't necessarily mean "the public" will automatically use that data correctly . Look at some of the stats in use today - a lot of players don't even know what sample size and distribution mean.

Analytics is in its infancy with many applications and uses, and I think we're a long, long way from "every horse's odds are exactly as they should be...."

So what exactly would the benefit be? Would I more likely benefit from analytics or would it be some group from MIT?

[Cratos]

Me too.

The best use of Trakus is that it makes following horses in big fields easier both during the running of the race and by using the web page in follow up.

If that is your “best use” of Trakus data, you are wasting your time IMHO.

[Cratos]

A set of new products doesn't necessarily mean "the public" will automatically use that data correctly . Look at some of the stats in use today - a lot of players don't even know what sample size and distribution mean.

Analytics is in its infancy with many applications and uses, and I think we're a long, long way from "every horse's odds are exactly as they should be...."
You are absolutely correct with your assertion: “a lot of players don't even know what sample size and distribution mean.”

However we should look at the history of handicapping in horseracing and we would find that it wasn’t built upon a foundation of “speed” even though that foundation is and always has been supported by the immutable laws of physics.

Horseracing was built on the premise that the horse with the fastest time wins the race and that is different from saying the “fastest speed” wins the race.

You can argue that the two are the same, but they are not. Time is not considering distance nor environmental impacts such as surface resistivity, surface wind resistance, or aerodynamic drag which speed will consider and this is where ANALYTICS will become powerful by those who apply the impacts correctly.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

So what exactly would the benefit be? Would I more likely benefit from analytics or would it be some group from MIT?

The article is pretty vague on what these new "wonder" products would be - only that (of course) they would be "truly innovative and unique". So, until we see some examples, we can only guess at the benefit of these products, and whether or not individual users versus sophisticated groups from MIT will have the most to gain.

Anyone with a database or a model of medium complexity or higher is already engaging in "analytics", assuming the definition is using past performances and results to predict future events. There are challenges to their use, including the quality of the input data, sample sizes, back fitting and testing, formatting to the media and devices of the end users, bridging the gap to translating predictions to wagers, etc. And let's not forget how the trainers would alter their intentions, based on the too many short-priced "analytics" horses. Any really effective product would soon drive prices down, similar to what happened when Beyers became available in the Racing Times.

I'm not saying there isn't room for the use of analytics or a market for new products based on it, but I'm not staying awake at night worrying that favorites will begin to win 60% of the races.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

I see the affect that TRAKUS has had on the handicapping process...and I remain sceptical.

Can you elaborate on this comment, please? I'm also skeptical of any new wonder products, especially those built on the "raw" data available today. Are you saying that TRAKUS data has had little effect on the game overall, or just for you personally?

It has not affected my handicapping at all, nor have a number of other recent new products, not that they can't help others.

[thaskalos]

Can you elaborate on this comment, please? I'm also skeptical of any new wonder products, especially those built on the "raw" data available today. Are you saying that TRAKUS data has had little effect on the game overall, or just for you personally?

It has not affected my handicapping at all, nor have a number of other recent new products, not that they can't help others.

When I read Beyer's book Beyer On Speed some 20 years ago...I saw Beyer saying that "new technology" had finally come forth which would finally bring the handicapping of this game to the 21st century. Microchips would be attached to the bridles of the horses, Beyer said, which would trigger sensors placed at the different points of call...thus bringing us the precise timings of the race fractions of each individual horse in the race. No more would the handicapper suffer the indignity of having to rely on human observation and rough calculations in order to assess the moves that these horses are making within the race. As a pace handicapper...I got understandably excited.

Well...it's been 20+ years....and I still don't see what Beyer's excitement was all about. I assume that Beyer was talking about TRAKUS, because that is the only "modern" development of that sort to come forth in the game during this time-period. But TRAKUS has partnered up only with some of the tracks...and isn't catering to the horseplayer. As far as I can see...the access allowed to the horseplayer hardly justifies the optimism that Beyer expressed over 20 years ago.

IMO...TRAKUS didn't deliver on the expectations that Beyer held for them. So far, in my opinion at least, it hasn't done enough to bring handicapping to the 21st century. But change comes slow in this game...so, it's entirely possible that this game WILL finally advance to the 21st century...by the time the 22nd century comes around.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Thanks for the clarification, Thask.

I agree that the technology of TRAKUS is not only limited by the number of adopting tracks, but the benefits derived from identifying the horses who traveled the extra 23 feet are lost in the natural variations of performances for the horses for the horses from race to race. I personally don't see a whole of difference between TRAKUS input, and watching replays to catch the horses with wide trips or who made eye catching moves.

And the way those chicklets sometimes "rubber band" and snapback makes me wonder how accurate the data really is....

[ReplayRandall]

I personally don't see a whole of difference between TRAKUS input, and watching replays to catch the horses with wide trips or who made eye catching moves.

Just curious, do you watch and analyze replays on a daily basis?

[Cratos]

Can you elaborate on this comment, please? I'm also skeptical of any new wonder products, especially those built on the "raw" data available today. Are you saying that TRAKUS data has had little effect on the game overall, or just for you personally?

It has not affected my handicapping at all, nor have a number of other recent new products, not that they can't help others.
I don't know what problems anyone has with Trakus, but in terms of giving the bettor/handicapper data about the horse's running performance during the race Trakus is the best on the market today.

Having said that, Trakus have some problems that it would serve them well to resolve.

By the way, Trakus reports on 12 major NA tracks and in doing so, there has been an average increase up to 3.5% of each racetrack handle that uses Trakus.

Also it is interesting that the poster can't see the problems with other data providers and contrast them with Trakus data.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Just curious, do you watch and analyze replays on a daily basis?

No, I do not. Bandwidth issues, with working full time and being a recreational player prevent me from doing so. I do watch replays of all races I bet, which is mostly on the weekends, and make limited notes. My "horses to watch" list does pretty well for me, though sometimes it's tough to get a bet down on them during the work week. I also find time between races in Hong Kong to review numerous replays of the contenders I like, and with their numerous photos, video of the gallop out (pass through), and overhead virtual replays it can make a big difference.

The only pro players I ever met were trip handicappers, analyzing the replays and making extensive trip notes. It's getting data that's not in the PPs, result charts, or a TRAKUS report that is key to getting good odds. If the data were "automated", it would be convenient, but its value would diminish with distribution. For now, trip notes and physical appearance are a couple of factors that really make a difference, at least for me.

At the risk of redboarding, I sometimes will also review a few races of contenders I like in a race I'm looking at - if I have time. Today's 8th at Del Mar, I kinda liked the :10: Next Book on paper, and so I watched his July 30th race. His comments were, "Rebid three wide turn, weakened". No mention of getting chopped a bit at the half mile pole and losing a couple of lengths. He finished with enough energy but wasn't tapped out for a bounce, and he looked decent on track. His TRAKUS data indicated he ran 20 feet further than the winner, but that wasn't nearly as important as his back class and betting action. He popped and cruised. I've got a similar horse on my watch list for tomorrow, Test Ride, in the 3rd at Del Mar.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

....Also it is interesting that the poster can't see the problems with other data providers and contrast them with Trakus data.

There's tons of problems with other data sources, as documented by hundreds of posts here PA. I didn't realize that issue had to pointed out when discussing a particular data source.

TRAKUS is hardly a silver bullet. If it works for you, then bully for you.

[ReplayRandall]

No, I do not. Bandwidth issues, with working full time and being a recreational player prevent me from doing so. I do watch replays of all races I bet, which is mostly on the weekends, and make limited notes. My "horses to watch" list does pretty well for me, though sometimes it's tough to get a bet down on them during the work week. I also find time between races in Hong Kong to review numerous replays of the contenders I like, and with their numerous photos, video of the gallop out (pass through), and overhead virtual replays it can make a big difference.

The only pro players I ever met were trip handicappers, analyzing the replays and making extensive trip notes. It's getting data that's not in the PPs, result charts, or a TRAKUS report that is key to getting good odds. If the data were "automated", it would be convenient, but its value would diminish with distribution. For now, trip notes and physical appearance are a couple of factors that really make a difference, at least for me.

At the risk of redboarding, I sometimes will also review a few races of contenders I like in a race I'm looking at - if I have time. Today's 8th at Del Mar, I kinda liked the :10: Next Book on paper, and so I watched his July 30th race. His comments were, "Rebid three wide turn, weakened". No mention of getting chopped a bit at the half mile pole and losing a couple of lengths. He finished with enough energy but wasn't tapped out for a bounce, and he looked decent on track. His TRAKUS data indicated he ran 20 feet further than the winner, but that wasn't nearly as important as his back class and betting action. He popped and cruised. I've got a similar horse on my watch list for tomorrow, Test Ride, in the 3rd at Del Mar.

From one replay "aficionado" to another.....Nice post.. :ThmbUp:

[thaskalos]

There's tons of problems with other data sources, as documented by hundreds of posts here PA. I didn't realize that issue had to pointed out when discussing a particular data source.

TRAKUS is hardly a silver bullet. If it works for you, then bully for you.

Who was this "negligent" poster that Cratos was commenting about? ME? :blush:

[pandy]

The strength of Trakus is not the ground loss numbers. It's the result chart and running positions. The question is, are the past performance more accurate when Trakus is used instead of a chartcaller for the running positions? Technically, Trakus should be more accurate and that should make a difference. There's no question that chartcaller's make mistakes.

[Cratos]

The strength of Trakus is not the ground loss numbers. It's the result chart and running positions. The question is, are the past performance more accurate when Trakus is used instead of a chartcaller for the running positions? Technically, Trakus should be more accurate and that should make a difference. There's no question that chartcaller's make mistakes.
A good summation and you are correct about the Trakus difference in measurements relative to the chart caller's measurements.

However there is a distinct feature that Trakus gives which cannot be given by the chart caller and it is displacement which is the correct metric for measuring an object in motion over a distance.

This method gives velocity which should be analyzed by vector analysis.

I am not trying to make Trakus the so-called "silver bullet" as inferred cynically by an earlier poster, but I am curious to stating that it has the best data for analytics.

[castaway01]

A good summation and you are correct about the Trakus difference in measurements relative to the chart caller's measurements.

However there is a distinct feature that Trakus gives which cannot be given by the chart caller and it is displacement which is the correct metric for measuring an object in motion over a distance.

This method gives velocity which should be analyzed by vector analysis.

I am not trying to make Trakus the so-called "silver bullet" as inferred cynically by an earlier poster, but I am curious to stating that it has the best data for analytics.

The safest bet in racing is that if the word "Trakus" is mentioned on this board, you'll soon make 10 incoherent posts (I personally am still deciphering your "I am curious to stating that it has the best data") extolling its virtues. If you don't own part of the company, you should.

[highnote]

The article about analytics reminded me of something a BRIS employee told me many years ago:

"The difference between BRIS' good horseracing software and their bad horseracing software is that the good software takes longer to figure out that it doesn't work."

[Gerard03]

There is so much information out there now, that people are not going to use it all. I have found Trakus to be useful, but the internal fractions do not always apply when horses are coming in from different tracks, varying distances and track conditions. I have found that sometimes the old way are just as good. Class, conditions, post position, jockey, trainers.

With Pharoah winning the Triple Crown and the advent of Handicapping Contests, more people will be playing. Racing has to find more ways to get people interested.

[Robert Goren]

I suppose that some one (not me) could find enough races where the Trakus is sufficiently different from the Equibase data to determine if it is effecting the odds. The question is how much the big bettors are using it. Many of them may have been attempting to make adjustments by watching race replays already. Trakus makes that job easier, but probably does not do away with it completely. I am pretty sure your average simulcast bettor barely even knows it exists. Until we get Past Performances based on it, its use by the small bettor will be almost non existent. I think it can be very useful especially in appraising horses coming out of large fields. The problem is that in the way its information is currently delivered, It takes a fair amount of time to sort through their numbers and put them into a form that is useful. I look at briefly adding points to Beyer's SR when Trakus says the horse ran further than Equibase. I quickly discovered this was a tricky process. I got waylaid off of this endeavor by other things, but I still believe it has merit as an easy way to improve a speed number. I can not believe no one else has thought of that approach. Since no one has posted about, I take it mean, it is either the greatest thing since sliced bread and they do not want to give away any secrets or the idea does not work at all. When it first appeared, I thought it would take the racing world by storm. So far, at least I have been wrong.

[Tom]

The Trakus data is just not available for enough tracks nor in any reasonable kind of usable format.

Why did the tracks spend all that money to electronically tell you a length = a fifth of a second????

[Cratos]

The safest bet in racing is that if the word "Trakus" is mentioned on this board, you'll soon make 10 incoherent posts (I personally am still deciphering your "I am curious to stating that it has the best data") extolling its virtues. If you don't own part of the company, you should.
I understand your dilemma, but digital technology is here to stay and for this industry to grow it absolutely must embrace these new technologies.

I recently had a conversation with some people who were attending the races at Saratoga about Trakus and other things forthcoming for handicapping horseracing and they were ecstatic.

The 4-figure and above bettor is looking for new and useful technology that will enhance his or her chance of winning.

Horseracing wasn't designed for the gambling arena which it now finds itself in and you can see how it is reacting to accommodate and attract new bettors.

In 5-10 years you will not know the betting and handicapping apparatus of this industry; it will be very different.

[Tom]

Trakus is just never going to be bought by most tracks.
It is the poly track of race timing.

How many tracks installed it so far this year?

[Cratos]

Trakus is installed at 12 of the 43 NA tracks, but more than that it is installed the "right" ones.

Trakus is at SA & Del Mar
NYRA
Keeneland & CD
Gulfstream

These are the money makers.

Once they get Monmouth and Pimilco the rest will follow.

[Pensacola Pete]

Be careful what you wish for. Back in the good old days in the 70s, the west coast DRF did not show internal fractions for races in the PPs.


Also back then, all allowance races were shown as "ALW", claiming races didn't list the conditions, and the Statebred flag didn't exist. I kept note cards of those for each day. The prices were unbelievable for people who kept records.

I caught one such move at Hawthorne. A horse had just finished 6th (out of 12) in an open, unrestricted $3,000 claimer (the lowest level on the grounds was $2,500), and that race had been full of tough multiple-winners It was moving into a 4,000 claimer for Illinois-breds who hadn't won a race in the past year. All the majority of handicappers saw was a $1,000 rise in class. The horse was actually dropping about three levels in competitiveness. It won by 12 lengths and paid $47.00.

[pandy]

Trakus is a good thing. How can anyone complain about accurate past performance lines? Chartcallers make errors.

[AndyC]

Trakus is a good thing. How can anyone complain about accurate past performance lines? Chartcallers make errors.

No argument from me. Anytime you can make information more accurate is a good thing.

[Steve 'StatMan']

I think Trackus would be more accepted if the tracks actually knew they were assured of still being in the racing business 5 or more years from now, let along 1 or 2 years from now.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

...In 5-10 years you will not know the betting and handicapping apparatus of this industry; it will be very different.

I'll book that bet, starting with my stake of 400 vCash units.

10 years from now, half the tracks open today will have closed.

10 years from now, betting will be similar to today, perhaps with some exchange betting, in race and "field against" wagers allowed.

10 years from now, the raw racing data available to the public will similar to what we have now, perhaps with some better QA on times and distances, and maybe more more info on race day meds or horses' weights.

10 years from now, the groups that have implemented sophisticated models for wagering and/or handicapping will have eaten their own profits up in the death spiral of the sport, as the pool of dumb/square/unsophisticated money shrinks.

10 years from now, any product utilizing advanced analytics that is available to the public will not be any more effective than Beyer speed figures today - and the really effective and profitable analytics, if there are any, will never see the light of the public eye....

[Tom]

10 years from now, those with the edge will be adding the DRF SR+TV together. :rolleyes:

[Hoofless_Wonder]

10 years from now, those with the edge will be adding the DRF SR+TV together. :rolleyes:

:D

Kind of like the old saying, "what comes around, goes around, ...and the comes around again...."

[classhandicapper]

If that is your “best use” of Trakus data, you are wasting your time IMHO.

Making good trip and bias notes is extremely time consuming. Anything that improves your ability to follow the horses during a race reduces the time it takes to make accurate bias appraisals and notes. That frees time for other productive uses.

I have little interest in the times Trakus provides. IMO, anything that Trakus adds in terms of clocking the times more accurately (which is minor) is swamped by everything that is wrong with allowing fractions and final times to dominate your thinking to begin with. I don't care about differences of a few hundredths of a second. That kind of thing does not move my fair odds much, if at all, but accurate biases and trips can have a huge impact.

[thaskalos]

Real change comes notoriously slow in this game...so, nothing of any consequence is bound to happen in the next 10 years. Beyer's book Beyer On Speed was written over 20 years ago, for heaven's sake. What changed...other than the price of the DRF?

[Cratos]

If you don’t think that Andrew Beyer introduction of the “speed figure” methodology back in the late Sixties didn’t change thoroughbred horseracing betting you have been living under a rock.

However what thoroughbred racing could have benefited from is the effort started by Phil Bull of Timeform back in the Thirties and that is the data analysis of horseracing with respect to the immutable laws of physics.
Take a look at the analytics in MLB today and they are significantly being defined by the laws of physics.

Why hasn’t this happen in horseracing? Because horseracing being a gambling endeavor was always frown upon by the “goodie-goodie two shoes” who were getting their cut from the “mutuel take” and today that “take” is shrinking because horseracing is not compatible with the gambling desires and needs of the millennias with their digital technology tools.

[thaskalos]

If you don’t think that Andrew Beyer introduction of the “speed figure” methodology back in the late Sixties didn’t change thoroughbred horseracing betting you have been living under a rock.

However what thoroughbred racing could have benefited from is the effort started by Phil Bull of Timeform back in the Thirties and that is the data analysis of horseracing with respect to the immutable laws of physics.
Take a look at the analytics in MLB today and they are significantly being defined by the laws of physics.

Why hasn’t this happen in horseracing? Because horseracing being a gambling endeavor was always frown upon by the “goodie-goodie two shoes” who were getting their cut from the “mutuel take” and today that “take” is shrinking because horseracing is not compatible with the gambling desires and needs of the millennias with their digital technology tools.
Yes...the gambler's interest in horse racing has waned...but the lack of technological innovation within the game isn't the main reason why. If you look back...you will see that our game enjoyed its hey-day when technology was virtually non-existent.

The gamblers have lost interest in our game...because our game has become a bad gamble when compared to other gambling games out there. Yes...the Beyer figures were a significant change in this game, but, unfortunately, their emergence made the game even more difficult to beat. Contrary to popular belief, when it comes to gambling, technological advancement and profit don't come hand-in-hand.

[Cratos]

Making good trip and bias notes is extremely time consuming. Anything that improves your ability to follow the horses during a race reduces the time it takes to make accurate bias appraisals and notes. That frees time for other productive uses.

I have little interest in the times Trakus provides. IMO, anything that Trakus adds in terms of clocking the times more accurately (which is minor) is swamped by everything that is wrong with allowing fractions and final times to dominate your thinking to begin with. I don't care about differences of a few hundredths of a second. That kind of thing does not move my fair odds much, if at all, but accurate biases and trips can have a huge impact.
You can use Trakus data in any way you desire, but if you are focusing in on the times given by Trakus as the reason for using the data, the train has left you at the station.

Trakus provides the data needed to calculate the forces which primarily retard the speed of the racehorse and they do it with vector analysis which is the reason their times are different from DRF/Equibase times.

There are many horseplayers who speak of a “track variant” and they typically calculate this variant by using the final time of a race against a standard metric.

What is wrong with this? There isn’t any causation identified with any scientific value.

Also for those who believe that pace of the race (the rate of motion) and final time of the race are not inherently dependent on each other clearly don’t understand the physics of horseracing.

The major environmental restriction to racehorse’s movement is aerodynamic drag (air resistance). The air density of the environment which a horse is running is very impactful to its performance because it is always that “invisible wall” pushing back against the horse and the greater the horse’s speed, the greater the push-back.

Yes, surface resistivity has an effect and it is friction which is determined by the COF and is never negative.

Lastly, the next big retardant is the surface wind resistance, but this impact is largely dependent on orientation and a wind speed above 15mph.

I fully realize that we all enter this game with different analytical strengths, but if you cannot identify scientific causation against the horse’s performance within some reasonable quantifiable range, I don’t see you ever having a consistent winning effort.

[Cratos]

I'll book that bet, starting with my stake of 400 vCash units.

10 years from now, half the tracks open today will have closed.

10 years from now, betting will be similar to today, perhaps with some exchange betting, in race and "field against" wagers allowed.

10 years from now, the raw racing data available to the public will similar to what we have now, perhaps with some better QA on times and distances, and maybe more more info on race day meds or horses' weights.

10 years from now, the groups that have implemented sophisticated models for wagering and/or handicapping will have eaten their own profits up in the death spiral of the sport, as the pool of dumb/square/unsophisticated money shrinks.

10 years from now, any product utilizing advanced analytics that is available to the public will not be any more effective than Beyer speed figures today - and the really effective and profitable analytics, if there are any, will never see the light of the public eye....
I will take the offer, but with real dollars because I have a big stake in helping make that change a reality.

You find a way with real dollars starting at least at 5 figures and I am on board.

[Tom]

I fully realize that we all enter this game with different analytical strengths, but if you cannot identify scientific causation against the horse’s performance within some reasonable quantifiable range, I don’t see you ever having a consistent winning effort.

And yet people are claiming horses based on those "variant" and people are cashing tickets every day using the sheets, the rags, the TF....consistent winning efforts are out there, many of them. You just refuse to acknowledge it.

[ReplayRandall]

I fully realize that we all enter this game with different analytical strengths, but if you cannot identify scientific causation against the horse’s performance within some reasonable quantifiable range, I don’t see you ever having a consistent winning effort.

There are winning players here at PA that would disagree with your statement. Personally, I use replay analysis and other means, which have nothing to do with scientific causation, with the exception of excessive whip strikes which does cause energy reserve depletion. Without proper rest of 4 weeks between starts, these horses(hopefully favorites) are throw-outs and add value to my EV+ plays.....

[Cratos]

There are winning players here at PA that would disagree with your statement. Personally, I use replay analysis and other means, which have nothing to do with scientific causation, with the exception of excessive whip strikes which does cause energy reserve depletion. Without proper rest of 4 weeks between starts, these horses(hopefully favorites) are throw-outs and add value to my EV+ plays.....
That is what make this forum so good; there is room for disagreement.

[Cratos]

To the poster who stated that I "refused to believe" should understand that it is not that I "refuse"; it is that I don't.

[Tom]

Denial is the bottom line.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

I will take the offer, but with real dollars because I have a big stake in helping make that change a reality.

You find a way with real dollars starting at least at 5 figures and I am on board.

Seriously? A $10+K wager on the future of how we wager on and handicap horse races? I doubt we could ever come to terms of agreement on the metrics. I do find your admission of having a vested interest quite interesting though - disclosure such is this is important to readers, keeping your biased responses in proper perspective.

However what thoroughbred racing could have benefited from is the effort started by Phil Bull of Timeform back in the Thirties and that is the data analysis of horseracing with respect to the immutable laws of physics.
Take a look at the analytics in MLB today and they are significantly being defined by the laws of physics.

As a former meteorologist, I understand the approach of using vector analysis and other aspects in physics in measuring a horse's performance. It's not much different than calculating air parcel movements in a forecasting model.

But I'm a bit unclear around the application of "analytics" with respect to how it changes the understanding/prediction of the sport. This is due to the vaugue descriptions of what we mean by analytics, and how that differs from what's been done in the past - and possibly due to me not being the brightest bulb on the tree. Perhaps you could provide a more detailed example or a link to a detailed example of how analytics will change the prediction of sports? Perhaps from baseball, unless your vested interest in the future of analytics applies to that sport as well....

[Cratos]

Seriously? A $10+K wager on the future of how we wager on and handicap horse races? I doubt we could ever come to terms of agreement on the metrics. I do find your admission of having a vested interest quite interesting though - disclosure such is this is important to readers, keeping your biased responses in proper perspective.



As a former meteorologist, I understand the approach of using vector analysis and other aspects in physics in measuring a horse's performance. It's not much different than calculating air parcel movements in a forecasting model.

But I'm a bit unclear around the application of "analytics" with respect to how it changes the understanding/prediction of the sport. This is due to the vaugue descriptions of what we mean by analytics, and how that differs from what's been done in the past - and possibly due to me not being the brightest bulb on the tree. Perhaps you could provide a more detailed example or a link to a detailed example of how analytics will change the prediction of sports? Perhaps from baseball, unless your vested interest in the future of analytics applies to that sport as well....
Thanks for your response and the offer to your offer is very serious because I believe that it is technology that will turn this industry around.

We can measure my prediction by the grow in handle due to technology over the next 10 years.

[classhandicapper]

You can use Trakus data in any way you desire, but if you are focusing in on the times given by Trakus as the reason for using the data, the train has left you at the station.

Trakus provides the data needed to calculate the forces which primarily retard the speed of the racehorse and they do it with vector analysis which is the reason their times are different from DRF/Equibase times.

There are many horseplayers who speak of a “track variant” and they typically calculate this variant by using the final time of a race against a standard metric.

What is wrong with this? There isn’t any causation identified with any scientific value.

Also for those who believe that pace of the race (the rate of motion) and final time of the race are not inherently dependent on each other clearly don’t understand the physics of horseracing.

The major environmental restriction to racehorse’s movement is aerodynamic drag (air resistance). The air density of the environment which a horse is running is very impactful to its performance because it is always that “invisible wall” pushing back against the horse and the greater the horse’s speed, the greater the push-back.

Yes, surface resistivity has an effect and it is friction which is determined by the COF and is never negative.

Lastly, the next big retardant is the surface wind resistance, but this impact is largely dependent on orientation and a wind speed above 15mph.

I fully realize that we all enter this game with different analytical strengths, but if you cannot identify scientific causation against the horse’s performance within some reasonable quantifiable range, I don’t see you ever having a consistent winning effort.

You said a lot without refuting anything I said.

The difference between the Trakus times and the official Equibase times are typically not significant enough to move the needle much in terms of evaluating the future fair odds on the horses no matter how you use them.

The difference on Keen Ice is 201.54 vs 201.57. There's a similar difference for the last horse in the race.

What's more important, .the 03 second difference or using Trakus to help watch the race and get all the trips and ground loss at various sections of the race correct?

When the official timing for a particular race is wrong, that can matter a lot, but in general the far greater use is the ground loss and trip related help you get.

[Cratos]

You said a lot without refuting anything I said.

The difference between the Trakus times and the official Equibase times are typically not significant enough to move the needle much in terms of evaluating the future fair odds on the horses no matter how you use them.

The difference on Keen Ice is 201.54 vs 201.57. There's a similar difference for the last horse in the race.

What's more important, .the 03 second difference or using Trakus to help watch the race and get all the trips and ground loss at various sections of the race correct?

When the official timing for a particular race is wrong, that can matter a lot, but in general the far greater use is the ground loss and trip related help you get.
My intention was not to refute anything, but to show there is a comprehensive analysis that is not offered with Equibase/DRF data.

Typically when an analysis is done on a global basis there will be discrete differences that shows little difference from the norm and that is what your ".03" pointed out.

In my R database I have every race and every horse run on the NYRA circuit with Equibase/DRF and Trakus data since the inception of Trakus at NYRA.

Also I have weather conditions at the time of each race.

What I am suggesting is that the data is there; what is needed is the analysis and the digital technology is the way to go.

[whodoyoulike]

I'll book that bet, starting with my stake of 400 vCash units.

10 years from now, half the tracks open today will have closed.

10 years from now, betting will be similar to today, perhaps with some exchange betting, in race and "field against" wagers allowed.

10 years from now, the raw racing data available to the public will similar to what we have now, perhaps with some better QA on times and distances, and maybe more more info on race day meds or horses' weights.

10 years from now, the groups that have implemented sophisticated models for wagering and/or handicapping will have eaten their own profits up in the death spiral of the sport, as the pool of dumb/square/unsophisticated money shrinks.

10 years from now, any product utilizing advanced analytics that is available to the public will not be any more effective than Beyer speed figures today - and the really effective and profitable analytics, if there are any, will never see the light of the public eye....


I think 10 years from now, Statts LLC and Equibase will be asking the bettors for their evaluation of their product by asking:

It's been 9 years and 10 months since implementation.... so, what do you think?

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Thanks for your response and the offer to your offer is very serious because I believe that it is technology that will turn this industry around.

We can measure my prediction by the grow in handle due to technology over the next 10 years.

And how can the growth in handle "due to technology" be measured? As Hank Stram would have said, this wager would be "like stealing". It would be difficult to gauge, especially as handles plummet over the next 10 years due to the economy tanking and geezers like me dying off. How would you calculate the effect of technology on handle versus other market forces? Show us some demographics that younger players are replacing old or discretionary income is on the rise, and then we can talk about a fairer metric. Fairer for you.

Of course you've already demonstrated, at least on the topic of TRAKUS, that you love the Kool-Aid and swallowed their marketing tripe. The average increase in handle of 3.5% of the twelve tracks that have adopted TRAKUS may be positively correlated, or it may not. Cause and effect are not proven. Could the rise in handle be related to the quality of racing maintaining a higher standard as low level tracks become unplayable? Could the rise in handle be related to TRAKUS tracks have little chicklets that aid in watching a race, but are totally unrelated to the TRAKUS data used for handicapping? Could the rise in handle be attributed to the expanded use of tablets/iPads for players, where the larger venues that can afford TRAKUS are more apt to provide a free wireless signal for the fans?

For someone who wants to apply the "immutable laws of physics" to their handicapping, I was surprised you were far less stringent when discussing the rise in handle at TRAKUS tracks - until you disclosed your vested interest.

BTW - still waiting for an example of "applied advanced analytics".

[Hoofless_Wonder]

I think 10 years from now, Statts LLC and Equibase will be asking the bettors for their evaluation of their product by asking:

It's been 9 years and 10 months since implementation.... so, what do you think?

:D

Yeah, like 9 years and 9 months of declining sales wasn't a hint.....

Actually, as the unnamed "cynical poster" earlier in the thread, I'm not really cynical about more accurate sources of raw data, TRAKUS being one of them. There's plenty of room for improvement in data sources for players. But I am quite skeptical that any product of "analytics" of raw data sets would be no more successful than Beyer figs, and would soon decline to the status of a typical tip sheet. And how many horseplayers show a positive ROI based on product selections, which are public and distributed with no limit?

[thaskalos]

BTW - still waiting for an example of "applied advanced analytics".
But you were wise enough not to hold your breath. :ThmbUp:

[Tom]

BTW - still waiting for an example of "applied advanced analytics".

www.weather.com

[whodoyoulike]

:D

Yeah, like 9 years and 9 months of declining sales wasn't a hint.....

Actually, as the unnamed "cynical poster" earlier in the thread, I'm not really cynical about more accurate sources of raw data, TRAKUS being one of them. There's plenty of room for improvement in data sources for players. But I am quite skeptical that any product of "analytics" of raw data sets would be no more successful than Beyer figs, and would soon decline to the status of a typical tip sheet. And how many horseplayers show a positive ROI based on product selections, which are public and distributed with no limit?

When I posted, I was trying to be optimistic that they would have a product available within 2 months versus a statement after 10 years ..... stating that their data will be available in 3 more months and to have a little more patience with them.