Why did Smarty Lose!

[jotb]

Hello all:


Smarty was done in by a fast 2nd half mile of 46.79. Even the great Secretariat ran slower from the half mile pole to the one mile marker (48). Chances are this was the fastest internal fraction in Belmont Stakes History and it certainly took it's toll the last 1/4 mile by the 26.98. Actually they ran the last 1/2 mile in 52.00. Now I know why they couldn't find Rock Hard Ten and Eddington with a search warrant. I have to wonder what the hell Bailey and Solis were thinking. Supposely these two high profile riders have a great sense of pace. The bottom line here is, they both wanted to play spoiler. Bailey was pushing on Eddington for 5/8ths of a mile and a rider of his quality knows better than to excrete that much energy early on for that long of a run especially in a mile and a half race.

[Zaf]

And he almost made it home, Great performance by Smarty !!!

ZAFONIC

[Thomason]

The best horse did not win. Damn it! I agree with jotb. Those middle fractions were killers. As far as Marylou is concerned after her gracious comments, she can take some of her winnings and buy another face. Yeah, like I'm ever going to be a Birdstone fan.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Tag-team riding by others vs. 1-speed SJ.

[NoDayJob]

Smarty didn't lose because he didn't try. He lost because he wasn't bred to go 12f. as a 3yo. That's one of the reasons I gave him less than a 10% chance of winning. The fact that he didn't have a prior race over the track might have something to do with it, too! Until a triple crown winner wins without a prior race at Belmont we'll just have to take this factoid at face value. Smarty lost and that's the name of that tune. Birdstone had won a Gr1 previously even though it was as a 2yo. No other horse except for Smarty had won at Gr1. My exacta call was a big loser but betting the rest of field proportionally, save for Smarty, made the day tolerable. I don't like rooting against my wagers but I wouldn't have been unhappy if Smarty had won.and I had lost

NDJ

[MV McKee]

040605Bel11
9 Smarty Jones
24.49|24.34|22.82|23.68|25.08|27.16

At the risk of sounding argumentative, NO horse is bred to run 1.5 miles while throwing a 22 and change midrace fraction.

Jotb was dead on in the reasons Smarty lost this one.

Servis is an amazing human being, commenting after the race that he, the trainer, "couldn't get the horse to settle". What an incredible class act.

[thelyingthief]

and in fact, though the baby jesus was finally adult-ed up as a silly carpenter and pinned to a tree, he was the son of god, and did not die.

read: actually, smartyjones was the greatest horse that ever lived, and though he was a slow horse, he was the fastest that ever runned, and while he got beat, he was the bestest and in truth a mighty son of the great equine spirit in the sky and shoot, how did this ever happen?

it was them fractions, they did the evil thing to smartyjones the divinest and holiest horse of all time, and gee, philadelphia is awful sorry things turned out the way they did, and can we run this race again, and maybe beyer can give us another inflated figure to compensate for the horrible end of this here delightful fairy tale, and shoot gosh darn, and shucks, that Secretariat is a piece of donkey do-do, and "did he ever do this, like the wonderfullest smarty did?", and dang, i'm so frigging smart i know that horse is the number one boned horse of all horses ever, and what happened, and all my money got burned up in the exactas i bet, and the triples i singled, and i never believed he was so slow, no siree, it was the track variant, not them slow horsies that he went running with, and if i was a grain of mustard seed, i might be blind to it enough to have faith anyhow.

amen.

did you know that Secretariat's heart weighed 22lbs? that's twice the size of your typical smartyjones' heart; which is my way of saying, that was a great, great beast you boneheads have been insulting now for weeks. heart, gentlemen, heart. i'm very happy the truth is out. very happy indeed.

oh, and let me repeat that: LETHARGIC.

[highnote]

Originally posted by jotb
Smarty was done in by a fast 2nd half mile of 46.79. Even the great Secretariat ran slower from the half mile pole to the one mile marker (48). Chances are this was the fastest internal fraction in Belmont Stakes History and it certainly took it's toll the last 1/4 mile by the 26.98. Actually they ran the last 1/2 mile in 52.00.



Good point. Here are the actual fractions:
24.33, 48.65, 1:11.76, 1:35.44, 2:00.52, 2:27.50

I couldn't understand why Stewart felt he had to go for the lead after a half. I was in the grandstand with binoculars watching. I said to myself as he got the lead that he was going to lose. He moved way too early. Hell, he still had a mile to go. When I saw 111 and change for 6f I knew he was toast. When I saw Birdstone gaining on him at mid turn I figured Bird had a good chance to win.

No horse can keep up with Smarty so why not sit back and nurse a soft pace and then save something for the stretch. I think Stewart panicked or got too anxious. Desormeaux and Antley did the same thing. You'd think they'd know better. You'd think they'd study tapes of previous runnings of the Belmont.

In fairness to the jocks, maybe it's not their fault. Maybe it's too hard to know whether you're going too fast or too slow. But then again, isn't that what they're being paid to know?

Smarty dug in and was gutsy, but you have to wonder how much time he'll need to recover.

Wonder if he'll make the Travers or BC?

[so.cal.fan]

Good call, jotb:
Just read your analysis to a couple of horsemen at Hollywood Park, they agree with you.
Hope you got out there yesterday to see the show.
I watched it on TV, what a crowd!

[jotb]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by swetyejohn
[B]Good point. Here are the actual fractions:
24.33, 48.65, 1:11.76, 1:35.44, 2:00.52, 2:27.50


"wonder if he'll make the Travers or BC"?


I hope Servis runs in the PA Derby in front of his hometown and then heads to the BC.


I keep thinking about that race yesterday and it just pisses me off, when I think about Bailey's ride on Eddington. This man did not want to see a TC winner and he made sure that this would not take place. I'll guarantee you, right after the Kentucky Derby, Ron Anderson(Baileys agent) was on the phone with Servis, desperately trying to get his rider on Smarty and when Servis kept his loyalty to Elliot, it was get even time for Bailey. In the Preakness Bailey rode Eddington in a different manner, reserving his horse for the last 3F but that day he came up empty. When he asks for run in the Preakness Eddington did not fire but yesterday he was under a drive for 5F in a mile and half race. I wouldn't be surprised if Eddington's career is over before it even started. Baileys a selfish person and certainly was not looking out for the owner's interest there because he could have easily hit the board yesterday. Let's face it, the connections had Eddington right yesterday and Bailey purposely messed up the trainer's job because he had other plans. I wonder what he had said to Prado as Birdstone made the optical illusion move by passing tired horses.

Best regards,
Joe

[Buckeye]

The Jockeys knew what they had to do, they had to beat him first. Prado was the recipient, and no, the best horse did not win the "Test of Champions" . . .
I am disappointed that Smarty was not able to overcome the strategy.

[highnote]

One could argue that the best horse did win.

Birdstone may have been the horse with the most fitness and the horse most suited to the distance.

In the book "Class of the Field" James Quinn argues that the number of challenges a horse can fend off and the duration of those challenges can define a horse's class.

No doubt Smarty has a lot of class. But Secretariat sustained a challenge from Sham until about the mid far turn until Sham collapsed. Then Secretariat still ran 109 and change for 6f. Then he won by 31 going away.

At 9 or 10f Smarty may be the best in the country. But at 12f Smarty may not be the best. That's why they call the Belmont Stakes the "Test of Champions".

Smarty is a champion but he failed the "Test of Champions".

Well, actually, he didn't fail, he just didn't get an A+ .

[Crosley]

OK I'm no expert and I only saw the race once... I believe SM only felt the whip twice. Why not use it more and why bother to switch hands for one stroke on each side with so little time left?

This isn't an attack on Elliott but I think he was in over his head and the outcome might have been different if he used the whip more.

Also, a heard a long time ago that, when whipped, I horse thinks he was just stung by a bee and that's supposedly the reason he runs faster, to get away from the other bees... Fact or myth?

[jotb]

Originally posted by Crosley
OK I'm no expert and I only saw the race once... I believe SM only felt the whip twice. Why not use it more and why bother to switch hands for one stroke on each side with so little time left?

This isn't an attack on Elliott but I think he was in over his head and the outcome might have been different if he used the whip more.

Also, a heard a long time ago that, when whipped, I horse thinks he was just stung by a bee and that's supposedly the reason he runs faster, to get away from the other bees... Fact or myth?


I just wrote this in another thread.

What is this stuff about whipping a horse? Why does the public constantly think that sticking a horse is the answer to winning a race. A horse like Smarty that gives you all he has in a race each time does not need to get beat up to make him run faster. It just does not work that way. If you watch the race you will see Smarty was a tired horse. His stride was short and his head was down. Elliot tried his best by keeping Smarty together the last furlong. When a rider needs to resort to the whip, he must time his hit to the horse's stride. The time you want to hit a horse is when it's pushing off its hind legs and beginning to reach out with its front legs. This makes a horse reach out a bit further. You never want to hit a horse while its trying to collect itself off its front stride. You have to wait until the horse has already done that and is beginning to push off its hind legs. It's also important that, while you're hitting a horse, you're still hand ridin with the other hand. If you watch Elliot yesterday you could see he had to lean back a tad to help balance Smarty as he was foundering in his stride.

Joe

[JPinMaryland]

Yeah maybe, I just dont know. I didnt realize how fast the 3rd and 4th quarter were, obviously that must have had a lot to do with it.
Looking up at the scoreboard I saw the 1/2 and 3/4 times and it didnt seem the pace was too fast, ideal pace I was thinking.

But at the end, Birdstone totally surprised me, I just didnt think any horse was capable of putting in a charge at that pt. I really dont understand why Stewart didnt try to whip him, even if not the totally textbook thing to do, Smarty needed to try to step it up if it all possible.

"WHy do people think that you have to whip the horse?"

Maybe because you see them do this all the time??? I would like to pull out the tape of all the close Belmonts and see who was whipping and who was not. I'd bet nearly every horse was being whipped at the end.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Buckeye
The Jockeys knew what they had to do, they had to beat him first. Prado was the recipient, and no, the best horse did not win the "Test of Champions" . . .
I am disappointed that Smarty was not able to overcome the strategy.

Interesting point. Maybe they do think like that. They didn't care who picked up the pieces as long as it wasn't a Smarty Party. How dare they try to do this..........Birdstone just picked up the pieces.........and plodded to the win.

Then again........ I don't know what the hell those jocks were thinking. But when I saw Smarty going to the lead and then read that he ran a mile in 1:35.44 .........I thought to myself......."their strategy worked" they got stewie to run their race. Not Smarty's

[Latin Qtr]

I think too much is made of a race. SJ ran great. Rock Hard Ten
& Eddington tried to foil SJ ONLY by trying to win. That's what
they're suppose to do. Birdstone came back into form and I'm
sorry I didn't stick with him since he was my KD pick. It just shows that SJ was not ready to win yesterday but I still think he's
a great horse.

[JustMissed]

Originally posted by JustRalph
Interesting point. Maybe they do think like that. They didn't care who picked up the pieces as long as it wasn't a Smarty Party. How dare they try to do this..........Birdstone just picked up the pieces.........and plodded to the win.

Then again........ I don't know what the hell those jocks were thinking. But when I saw Smarty going to the lead and then read that he ran a mile in 1:35.44 .........I thought to myself......."their strategy worked" they got stewie to run their race. Not Smarty's

One of our members wrote a piece about how a horse has a cup of gas and how he burns that cup of gas determines how well he does in the race. Could the BS not have been a better example of this?

Had Stew rated SJ and run 4-7 lengths off the pace, would the result have been different? We'll never know.

That's why the TC is so coveted and highly regarded. You have to have the heart to do it all.

Hope I live long enough to see another TC winner.

JM:)

[Secretariat]

I agree. Sham ran off the pace trying to catch Sec in the Derby and Preakness, and switched strategies in the Belmont going after him early. It cost him, but I think if Eddington and Rock Hard run the same type of race they run in the Preakness they're toast. The attempt was to pass Smarty Jones and see how Smarty would handle being passed. They couldn't get by him but expended way too much energy trying. It cooked them, but also Smarty in the process.

He was the best horse in the Belmont, but Elliott refused to relinquish the lead early. Had he been able to perhaps Smarty would have won, OR perhaps he may have given up after being passed? Who knows? Perhaps Smarty would have used uptoo much energy in being restraiend eary by fighting the jock...

It's why the TC is so tough to do. You've got t obe able to handle all types of strategies attmepted against you. smarty is a good horse, but he failed that test. Frankly, 1/5 on the horse was a little ridiculous considering it was an untested distance, the breeding questions, the post, the larger field, and knowing someone was going to push him on the pace. I had him about 1/1, but 1/5 was a stretch. Even Secretariat wasn't 1/5.

[highnote]

What were Secretariat's final odds. I thought he paid $2.40 to win, $2.40 place and $2.20 show.

I think this is correct because I always thought he was a much better bet to place than to win. I mean, why take $2.40 to win when you can get $2.40 to place?

Anyone remember the payoffs?

[cj]

The problem is calculating that accurately and getting in a bet before the race is run. If Sham runs second, what does he pay?

He paid $2.20, $2.40, no show wagering.

In this case, the win players came out way, way ahead, since he won.

I agree with you when the races have no historical significance and the tickets don't have greater value by not cashing them. I'm just not sure how often this happens in your typical, everyday race.

[jotb]

Hello all:


I can't believe people feel that Smarty was not rated by Stu. He was indeed rated and he seemed more relax than anyone else in the race that was close to the top. If Stu takes too hard a hold of the reins you wind up choking him down and then everyone would have said "why didn't he let him run"? There are different ways to rate a horse. Some horses rate easy. Others you have to take a hard hold of a liitle while, to get them to the position and speed you want them, then turn them loose a little bit and they'll stay at that speed and position. Other horses you have to take a hold of and keep it there until your're ready to run. Still others you can't take a hold ofat all. You just have to turn them loose. You're better off doing that than taking ahold of them, because the more hold you take of them the more they want to run, and they just wear themselves out. With that kind of horse you sometimes have to just let them run, and then when you want them to try harder you take ahold of them for a second and they'll respond by trying even harder. It just depends on the horse. If you can get your horse to relax while the jocks in front of you are pushing their horses or fighting them to slow down, then you know, percentagewise, that's gonna take more out of theirs than you're taking out of yours, and you'll have horse to finish with. I just don't see where Stu made any mistakes in this race.

Joe

[kenwoodallpromos]

Somebody check the fractions Sj ran in his previous races; I have. Sj ran like Sj runs. Exactly. That is why a strategy could be used at all.

[JPinMaryland]

can someone comments on Joth's pt. that Smarty was in no position to be whipped. I dont have the knowledge to judge this can someone else comment.

TO me, watching on the telestrator it looked like Smarty was home free, did Elliot just not see Birdstone coming?

[JPinMaryland]

I just re-read jotb's 3rd post in this thread (re Smarty's stride) and then looked at the tape again. Wow! Very accurate description of what happened to Smarty.

The thing is you can't really discern the difference in stride and head position until about the last 100 yards (about 30 lengths by my calculation). He had been losing some ground up to that pt. but at that pt. it becomes noticeable on the tape, his stride is definitely shorter and then head position is all different.

jotb says Smarty's head is "down." But to me it looks like his head is a more upright position and the horse's stride is more on his back legs as opposed to the driving position of Birdstone. Whatever it is, I can see what he means about STewart having to steady the horse in that position and that Smarty has lost his momentum. I dont know if its possible to get anything out of a horse in that position via the whip, but the physical effect on Smarty is certainly noticeable.

[JackS]

I don't know the answer to weather Smarty would respond to the whip or not. This is probably a question only the jock or trainer could answer. My understanding is that there are many reactions and varibles among horses when a whip is used. The whip is used less to hurt the horse and urge him to run faster, than it is to get his attention and his mind back on the task at hand. This works with many horses and with other horses an act of rebellion and a complete end of all effort. It seems some horses react positivly to heavy use ,while others only to a light use, then others, not at all.

[cj]

Just stepping back a bit, and looking at the race objectively, answering the question of "Why did Smarty lose?" is pretty obvious.

Any horse in the middle of a three then four horse duel for the lead, through what were probably above average fractions, and being pretty wide during that duel, is having THE MOST difficult trip I can imagine. That he ran as well as he did is testament to how good a horse he is and how much better he is than the rest of the 3yos.

The others battling up front, who were the 2d, 3d, and 4th choices in the race, finished 12, 12, and 37 lengths back.

So, if I looked at this race like it was any other race, you'd say the 9 ran one hell of a race under extremely difficult conditions. That he didn't overcome them means he probably wasn't a deserving Triple Crown horse, but his is still one very, very good racehorse. He is much better than anything we've seen in the 3yo ranks since at least Silver Charm.

[Jeff P]

One thing I've not seen anybody comment on is the track surface itself. I thought, after seeing the first two dirt races, that the surface on Saturday was somewhat deeper and more tiring than usual. If that were the case, it should favor closers rather than front runners. The charts for the dirt races that day seem to bear this out. The prevailing bias, to me, seemed to be speed tiring. The notable exceptions were Bear Fan and Speightstown, who in my opinion, ran phenomenal races against the bias. I concluded after seeing Board Eligible win the 5th race that the surface on Saturday was severely hindering the chances of my front running selections. As a result, I decided to scale back the size of my bets for the remainder of the Belmont card. Looking ahead to the Belmont after the fifth race, I had real doubts at the time that Smarty could win given his running style and the way the surface was playing.

I'll take the stand that it was the SURFACE, combined with the pressured trip, that proved to be Smarty's undoing in the final furlong. I honestly believe, that had the surface on Saturday been normal, Smarty's move at the head of the stretch would have been more than enough to get the job done.

That said, I still couldn't come up with Birdstone as a contender. There was nothing number wise in my way of looking at horses to suggest he could win that race against that field. The only logical play I could make was to pass the race.

The outcome gives me pause. I ponder past Triple Crown winners and appreciate their place in history all that much more. I now realize just how rare and wonderous such an acheivement actually is. It goes without saying that overcoming all obstacles and winning these three races in a short time span against the best competition a generation has to offer is a genuine rarity. So many stars have to align in just the right way before it can happen.

Here's hoping that one year soon, a Derby and Preakness winner DOES come home on top in the Belmont.

[delayjf]

I don't thinks its fair to blame Elliott. Servis said that coming out of the Preakness, that SJ was too aggressive and that he felt his job was to take something out of him. He almost got the job done. But given that temperment and the challenge by the other horses, which lead to the middle fractions and ultimately SJ defeat.

About the only thing Elliott might have done was to attempt to trick SJ into settling by putting him behind horses, but that would also taken him out of his natural running style and who knows how he would have reacted.

Sometime I wonder if the 1 1/2 mile belmont track "fools" horses who haven't run there before into a premature move. This race is so simular to Real Quiet, Charasmatic, and Silver Charm's Belmont. Maybe that's why no horse has run the TC without first running at Belmont .

[highnote]

The more I think about it the more I think it's not all Stu's fault. Belmont is a big track with sweeping turns. CD and PIM have much tighter turns. Smarty is nimble enough that he was probably able to negotiate CD and PIM turns easily. Now when he comes to Belmont he can negotiate the turns even quicker which causes him to expend too much energy early.

If this race is run at AQU, Saratoga, CD or PIM Smarty probably wins since he would negotiate the turns a little slower and thereby saving something for the stretch run.

So maybe Stu can't rate the horse. He said in the NY Times interview he couldn't just take a strong hold of him.

I think the lack of experience over the track hurt Smarty. If he'd have had a race over the track maybe Stu and Servis would have taken time to figure out how to get Smarty to rate a little better.

Then again, they probably did the best job they could. It just wasn't meant to be.

[kenwoodallpromos]

You are correct. Most of the races were run at 45 to 46 second for the 1st 4f. SJ ran 48, way too slow for the speed of the track. But that is what he always does and the other jocks knew it. None of the spped and numbers people on this site seem to know it.

[fourway23]

I'm not a big fan of Jerry Bailey, but I have reservations that he would "use up" his horse in an attempt to insure that SJ's would lose.

Most likey he noticed that the wind had picked up considerably, (+20mph with gusts at almost 30 out of the ENE) and calculated that if he could get lead and if Elliot tried to rate SJ he could "steal" the race. Unfortunately for Bailey, Elliot did not try to over-rate SJ and allowed him to do what he did best and go for the lead.

Combine that with the "basket case" Rock Hard Ten, who could not be controlled by Solis and again had trouble loading, and your left with the situation that SJ had to fight off contenders at least two times.

Turning for home, whatever energy he had left could have been drained by running into the wind. (I have run marathons, and I can tell you there is nothing more draining then hitting a wall of wind at mile 18 or 20).

The only different outcome possible would have been if the shipped SJ strait to Belmont after the Preakness to give him more time on the track and at least one good w.o.

Zito had a fresh horse of quality, a jockey who knew how to ride the Belmont and a little bit of luck from the racing Gods.

I only hope that they get SJ back on the track as soon as possible in the right spot so that he can recapture that winning attitude he has demonstrated throughout his short career. I would hate to see him mismanaged like Funnycide who unfortunately is one mixed up horse right now.

[JPinMaryland]

I dunno, the only problem with that theory is that if the head wind in the final stretch is so draining why would you want to press the pace? WOuldnt you want to be a closer in that scenario if the wind is going to essentially lengthen the race?

[fourway23]

my quess would be that if you had the lead with an uncontested pace you would have enough left in the tank to make it impossible for a come from behind horse to catch you.

going into the race, everyone was training to stay close to smarty just off the pace. but as usual when the gates opened circumstances and horses dictated different strategies.

elliot did an interview with espn and stated that he would not do anything differently, that smarty ran his race and just lost it. just think, if the winds stayed at 10mph like they were in race one, or if the storm that drenched pimlico made to elmont, smarty probably wins in a walk. guess that is what makes horse racing so challenging.

[JPinMaryland]

who was the guy on this board who was doing the computer simulation of the race using the numbers from recent races? Id' like to revisit that thread if I can find it. Didnt he have Birdstone winning the first time he ran the simul. and then he went back and did like 10 races?

Hmm, shades of the japanese wargaming midway.

[Niko]

When I saw the Preakness race and speed numbers from it I told my friends and family that that race would knock 90% of horses off form for 2 months or longer.
Problem was I couldn't see who could step up and beat the horse and I kept reading how well Smarty was doing and that he hadn't lost his edge. I think the Belmont was a little weak this year and the combo of Smarty peaking in the Preakness and not relaxing until the stretch did him in. I'm still more impressed by Smarty than any other horse I've seen. Hope to hear from him in the future.

[thelyingthief]

my understanding is, on the belmont day of secretariat's fine run, the wind blew with him at the start, altered to continue helping him along as he entered the back stretch, and subsequently re-oriented to assist the lousy beast as he hit the quarter pole. the evidence also indicates that only secretariat was favored on said day with these aeolean shenanigans, and all the other horses experienced it as a huge wind opposing their every move.

likewise, the clock was seen to move backward twice, and generally slowly for old red, but quite the opposite for the less favored.

myself, i've had one helluva time understanding how such monsters as witnessed powering through the most recent running of the big race could be so haplessly timed in 2.27+. i am convinced that the track variant was 67 for that day. and that elliot cheated. and other stuff, too.

[fourway23]

First point is obvious, Smarty Jones had a helluva run but Secretariat he aint. No argument at all.

Second point: I think dissecting big races adds to everyones understanding of racing in general. Lets face it, you wont see this amount of copy on a 4000 claimer sprint at Mountaineer.

They way i figure, the more I understand the belmont the more I will understand why E Types seem to win hands down on certain days and why on certain days they are the "kiss of the death."

And then there is the consensus of what everyone says. For instance everyone says Birdstone " conserved energy" and that it why he won and that SJ burned himself out on his mile time. But the numbers tell a different story:

1/2 Mile to 1 Mile:

Sj: 49.54
BS: 50.07

1 Mile to 1 1/4:

SJ: 25.08
BS: 24.78

1 1/4 to Finish

SJ: 27.14
BS: 26.74

Visual observations:

Birdstone ran very easy in the backstretch constantly gaining on the leaders. However, Prado took to the whip entering the turn not usually a sign of winner.

If you watch the race enough enough times, you can almost mark the exact point at the top of the stretch that SJ "stopped."

It took BS forever to get "it together" in the stretch" and it was a very short spurt of energy that carried him to victory.

To further complicate the matter look at track maintenance for the day. 1st half was harrowed, half was sealed, then fully harrowed, then partially sealed again. If you can make sense of it you might say that Prado's experience at Belmont allowed him to pick the right lane for his horse.

And of course there is prado himself, who got a waiver on his suspension to ride Birdstone.

So what does it all mean. Maybe nothing in the great scheme of things, but for me personally I now check underground weather for the wind direction and velocity and read the track the maintenance notes when available.

Maybe there is something to all of this and maybe not. Only time and the number of tickets I cash will tell.

But one thing I have learned that the people who attempt to put a number on race have my respect, it is one demanding chore.

[JPinMaryland]

Fourway: Well not disagreeing w/ your overall analysis can you double check those fractions again? Especially from the 1/2 to 1 mile marker. I think it is approx. 46.8 sec. if Smarty was anywhere near the lead at the 1/2 which I think he was.

This is based on fractions posted by Sweeteye earlier up thread.

[highnote]

I get 46.79, too.

[fourway23]

Thanks for catching my terrible math: revised figures:

1/2 to 1 mile

SJ: 46.63
BS: 47.05

1mile to 1 1/4

SJ: 25.08
BS: 24.80

1 1/14 to Finish

SJ: 27.14
BS: 26.47

the beaten lengths are based on cj's 8ft per length. the visual of the race seems to confirm the numbers.

[ponyplayer]

Long thread....If this wasn't the Belmont and these were everyday horses, we would have simply said, SJ got cooked in a duel and a closer came and over took him in the stretch. ;) ;)

[highnote]

Originally posted by ponyplayer
Long thread....If this wasn't the Belmont and these were everyday horses, we would have simply said, SJ got cooked in a duel and a closer came and over took him in the stretch. ;) ;)

Enquiring minds want to know the truth.

Was it the speed dual that did him in or did he bounce as Joe Cardello of DRF suggests? After all, Birdstone only ran a 101 Beyer and Smarty only ran about 100. That's a huge regression after a 118 Preakness. Third place Royal Assualt only ran a 90. He's run 88-88-90 so far. So he didn't improve much.

Are Eddington and Rock Hard Ten really that bad that they finished so far up the track?

So Birdstone didn't improve much. Was it a slow run Belmont? Maybe the Beyer figures are wrong? Maybe the track variant should be a lot higher?

We'll probably have to wait until some of these horses run again to know the answers to some of these questions with more certainty.

[JackS]

I think the Beyers are highly biased toward the late fractions. A comparison of the early pars at Pimlico against the pars at Belmont might reveal something. I have Pimlico 4/5 slower to the first call, and a full second slower to the pace call ,final time is also 4/5slower. This is for 1-1/8, so probably a little different for 1-1/2.

[DeoVolente]

I don't know if you saw the NBC telecast, but they pointed out that none of the
Triple Crown winners faced fields larger than 6 horses.

Or maybe it was that none of them had more than 6 opponents....

Anyway, the point was that the size of the field was always smaller than what
Smarty faced. I think that ties in well with your Affirmed ex

[NoDayJob]

All the post mortems aren't going to change anything. Smarty lost, lost, lost, lost and finally Smarty lost. Maybe some of you read my post weeks ago about Smarty having less than a 10% chance of winning. I guess not. Bye, bye.

NDJ

[Buckeye]

How much less than 10% was it?

Looking for the exact figure. Thanks.

[NoDayJob]

Originally posted by Buckeye
How much less than 10% was it?

Looking for the exact figure. Thanks.

Slightly over 8% by my calculations. 12/13 to 1 to break even on the bet.

NDJ

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally posted by fourway23
To further complicate the matter look at track maintenance for the day. 1st half was harrowed, half was sealed, then fully harrowed, then partially sealed again.

Please elaborate this point. Sealed? The track was never sealed once the races began on June 5. Perhaps I am not understanding what you are trying to explain.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally posted by NoDayJob
All the post mortems aren't going to change anything. Smarty lost, lost, lost, lost and finally Smarty lost. Maybe some of you read my post weeks ago about Smarty having less than a 10% chance of winning. I guess not. Bye, bye.

NDJ

But post mortems for us MERE MORTALS are FUN and sometimes EDUCATIONAL. We all haven't ascended to the mountain top like you have Norville Johnson....LOL

[highnote]

Originally posted by PaceAdvantage
But post mortems for us MERE MORTALS are FUN and sometimes EDUCATIONAL. We all haven't ascended to the mountain top like you have Norville Johnson....LOL

PA,
I agree with you on this one. Also, it's not everyday you get to analyze a 12 furlong Grade 1 made up of the best 3 year olds in the nation.

In fact, during this 12 furlong post mortem I am surprised how little attention is given to pedigree analysis. There is a lot of discussion about pace, speed, jock, trainer, condition, etc., but no one is mentioning the fact that there are two publicly available pieces of information that are underutilized.

1. Birdstone has a low dosage number (see chef-de-race.com for dosage explanation)
2. Birdstone was weighted within 10 pounds of the highweight in the Experimental Free Handicap
(see jockeyclub.com/mediaCenter.asp?story=137)

That makes Birdstone a dual-qualifier. Lemon Drop Kid at 30-1 in the Belmont Stakes was also a dual-qualifier.

Someone mentioned that Brohammer said that when it comes to these marathon distances you can throw pace and speed out the window. Class and pedigree dominate.

One half of the dual-qualifier status is a class component. The other half is pedigree.

For more info on how to apply this to the Kentucky Derby check out: http://instruction.bus.wisc.edu/dhausch/KD%20final1.PDF

Finally, I love talking racing. There is never enough, already.

js

[kenwoodallpromos]

Morning works were very slow Saturday, but all the races were very fast so the crew did something to speed up the track. In between some early races I saw the crews running floats over the track to push the excess water off; So the track could have been sealed Friday nite and the works slow due to a lot of water on the track. looked like all the jockeys were smart enough to stay a little off the rail.
I was glad I did not bet on Smarty after seeing the fractions and final times of the first couple of racing, since I knew how consistently close to 12sec/f Sj runs.
looking at the charts for the day, the track ran fair excepr favoring early speed. That is how Birdstone ran the good fractions late.
Birdstone and Sj's finish times were better than a lot of Belmont Stakes winners' times.
Did anyone notice Elliot not looking to his right in the stretch when Birdstone was approaching?
I am curious how the betting will go on Birdstone in the next race since the Beyers are so low.

[mountainman]

the impertinence of those evil doers diabolically disguised as jockeys!! didn't they realize that the belmont was not to be a horserace..but instead a coronation??? and that a horse of smarty's stature , if not tractable enough to relax and rate, should be guaranteed a soft pace over the course of the final 12 furlongs standing between him and history???? and did these pace-prompting pinheads not once consider the unprecedented boost in racing's popularity that would have resulted from triple crown winner number 12??????????? surely, had smarty scored, handle would have quadrupled(forever) at every track across this great land as each and every citizen caught "racing fever"! NFL stadiums would have emptied, summer block buster films gone broke, summer loves been abandoned , the "blue flu" would(of course) have emptied all work places , and, yes, baseball been replaced as the national pastime as, at long last, america saw the light and embraced the sport of kings!!!!!!

please fellow racing fans, can we at least salvage something for history and perhaps grant smarty some sort of "honorary legend" status, even in the wake of our monumental heartbreak? after all, name one other horse from racing's rich history who could have overcome midrace pressure from the likes of incredible eddington and future hall of famer rock hard ten!!!!! secretariat would have stumbled, citation would have crumbled,and in my opinion, even that icon of icons, yessss the mighty man o' war, would have whinnied weakly and failed to finish if attacked so savagely by such freakishly fast horses!!!!!!!

[kenwoodallpromos]

The actual coronation came after the KY Derby, when Smarty Jones became the first annd only horse to win the AR-KY $5 million bonus. That is plenty enough to earn the Horse Of The Year honors.
Unless you think trashing then losing 1 length to a dual qualifier is a hill of beans.

[Buckeye]

Originally posted by mountainman

secretariat would have stumbled, citation would have crumbled,and in my opinion, even that icon of icons, yessss the mighty man o' war, would have whinnied weakly and failed to finish if attacked so savagely by such freakishly fast horses!!!!!!!
Didn't have to reach too high for horses to compare to Smarty, did you?