The Pacific Classic at Del Mar

[grandstander21]

Here are my picks and analysis on the G1 Pacific Classic at Del Mar.

Beholder is looking to beat the boys in this grade 1 event. She is coming off a crushing 7-length win in the G1 Clement L. Hirsch. She's a perfect 3-for-3 this year and her form is in tip-top shape. She's expected to be somewhere on the front with Bayern early.

Ever since shipping to the U. S., Catch a Flight has won 4 of 7 races for trainer Richard Mandella this year. Three of his wins were in graded stakes events including his latest win in the G2 San Diego Handicap, beating both Bayern and Hoppertunity. He could win if there's a hot pace up front.

Hoppertunity hasn't been on his best form lately, but has had some excuses in his races. Toss out the G2 San Antonio as Shared Belief and 'Chrome were much the best that day. I don't know what happened in the Stephen Foster and the San Diego, but the Gold Cup at Santa Anita wasn't such a bad race. He can sure handle 1 1/4 miles.

Bayern is a wild card in here. Ever since he won the controversial Breeders' Cup Classic, he has been running very dull races. He finished dead last in the G2 Churchill Handicap and last again in the Met Mile beaten 28 lengths. However, he did show some heart in the San Diego when challenging Appealing Tale for the lead early and finishing third. I use him underneath.

MY SELECTIONS
:9: Beholder
:7: Catch a Flight
:8: Hoppertunity
:3: Bayern

[Tor Ekman]

No love for SA Gold Cup winner Hard Aces, not even a mention?

BTW, you neglected to include "TVG" in the race name, they paid a lot of money for that race, they may take offense :)

[grandstander21]

No love for SA Gold Cup winner Hard Aces, not even a mention?

BTW, you neglected to include "TVG" in the race name, they paid a lot of money for that race, they may take offense :)
I do like Hard Aces a little bit, but I can't trust him to win. The Gold Cup at Santa Anita was probably just a lucky win. I'm not sure how good he is just yet.

Plus, screw TVG. They're just a bunch of imbeciles behind a desk laughing and telling jokes rather than giving serious analysis on horse races. I have no respect for them.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

No way in Hades can I take Beholder as the chalk.

Looking at :5:Red Vine and/or :6:Imperative if anything at all.

Sad to see a lot of these G1s for older horses come up so lame this summer leading into guaranteed entries to the BC Classic.

[grandstander21]

No way in Hades can I take Beholder as the chalk.

Looking at :5:Red Vine and/or :6:Imperative if anything at all.

Sad to see a lot of these G1s for older horses come up so lame this summer leading into guaranteed entries to the BC Classic.
Oh yes, everyone I forgot to change my selections.

MY SELECTIONS
:7: Catch a Flight
:9: Beholder
:8: Hoppertunity
:3: Bayern

I'm putting Catch a Flight on top instead. I noticed some flaws in Beholder

[NorCalGreg]

If Bayern is ever gonna win another race-this is it. He's on the improve, and gonna be overlaid. Who is gonna be foolish enough to try to go with him? He'll set his own pace early, have something left when the real running starts. Hoppertunity should find a way to blow this, as he likes to do, with Beholder right there. Red Vine fills out the super.

:3: BAYERN 6-1
:8: HOPPERTUNITY 5-1
:9: BEHOLDER 5-2
:5: RED VINE 6-1

Good Luck :)

-NCG

[horses4courses]

I'm taking a long hard look at :5: Red Vine in this spot.
He's been in good form this year, and runs his race every time.
His Monmouth numbers are good, although this is a bigger test.

I think they have been looking at this race for a while.
The owners were keen to run him at Del Mar - they are Californians, I believe.
It's a hike in class for him, but the West Coast bunch aren't
so hot right now. He figures to get a good trip on, or near,
the rail - and the mile and a quarter won't phase him.

Price wise, he looks like he should be at least 4-1.
Anything less, I would pass.
Beholder is certain to take money.
She's not certain to relish the 10 furlongs against tougher than she's faced.

Should be a good one!
I'm hoping I get my price on Red Vine. :ThmbUp:

Government Warning! My picks can be detrimental to the wallet. ;)

[Tor Ekman]

Agree with NCG that this is :3: Bayern's race to win especially with a race under him on new DMR dirt track, and the price should be right, but my gut just doesn't trust that he's fully back to form.

Don't think :9: Beholder can get the distance trying it for first time plus against group of guys for the first time, great bet against - if she can do it, so be it.

I was getting a bit excited about :10: Midnight Storm being completely ignored as a great value play, and maybe :10: being able to go with and then out run fading :3: and hold off others coming late, only to see that Timeform has the race :10::5::8:, which I expect will significantly knock down the price on the :10:.

As of now, I'm going :10::5::4:

[dkbigsky]

good race I think Bayern will get an easy pace unless the :10: pushes im going
:3: :10: :5: whats got me a little puzzled is M smith comes off hopp and goes to a 15 to 1 shot for sadler

[NorCalGreg]

good race I think Bayern will get an easy pace unless the :10: pushes im going
:3: :10: :5: whats got me a little puzzled is M smith comes off hopp and goes to a 15 to 1 shot for sadler

Who knows what goes into decisions on who is riding who, dk? Garcia is up on Hoppertunity INSTEAD of Bayern. My opinion-in bigtime stakes races it's less about jockeys and more about owners/trainers whims.

[raybo]

My Black Box's ranked contenders, in order ("PFV" rankings method):

:3: Bayern
:5: Red Vine
:9: Beholder
:8: Hoppertunity
:1: Class Leader

If Bayern runs anywhere close to his best race, it's a wire to wire win. He has far better early velocities than any other horse in the race, and we know when he's on he will bust a gut in the stretch.

[zico20]

It's now or never for Bayern. Think he wins in a runaway.

:3: Bayern
:8: Hoppertunity
:7: Catch a Flight
:5: Red Vine

I am tossing Beholder completely out of my super bets. Hope they pound her to the heavy favorite.

[raybo]

Wow, that was suicide. What the heck was Bejarano thinking? 22 45 109, ridiculous on the new dirt surface! Let the 10 go, he was no threat to win, run your race not his. Well, at least the girl won, that's good for the game.