Monmouth Oaks: Handicapping Thread

[andtheyreoff]

While it'll probably get lost in the shuffle of the Alabama and the Pacific Classic, the Monmouth Oaks on Saturday is a fascinating race. Here's the PPs and my thoughts:

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=MTH&race=11&param1=7392&param2=1848&param3=1706705

:1: Tiger Rose: Won the Ta Wee Stakes really easily last out at Indiana Grand, and has been improving with each dirt start. Trainer Graham Motion is not great with his Monmouth horses this year, however.

:2: Curlish Figure: I like this longshot here; she blew away two fields at Delaware Park, albeit at the maiden and n/w1x allowance levels. She may not win it, but she can sneak into the tri or super at a price.

:3: White Clover: Was disappointing in the Delaware Oaks, after winning the Our Mims Stakes with a cushy gate-to-wire trip. She figures to get more pace pressure in here. I'll pass.

:4: Delightful Joy: She's my top pick. I loved her last race at Belmont, where she was wide the whole way around, yet pulled off a n/w1x allowance score over a filly who came back to win at that level in Saratoga. Paco takes the mount, and Chad Brown has been insanely good with his Monmouth invaders (7-15). If she's at her 5/1 morning line, that would be a gift.

:5: Lady Serena: This is Chad Brown's other entrant in here. She was strong in two races at Belmont this spring, but hasn't raced since June 5. Nor has she been as fast as Delightful Joy. You can't ignore her for the exotics, but I'll pass on a win bet.

:6: Eskenformoney: If nothing else, she's getting a ton of class relief in here. Her last two were in the Mother Goose and the Kentucky Oaks, but she wasn't impressive at all in either one of those spots. I will pass at likely short odds.

:7: Catcha Rising Star: Jogged on the lead last out and didn't even run a big figure. No thanks.

:8: Light the City: Won a n/w2x allowance here at Monmouth last out, which sets her up nicely for this race. If you toss out her dull races in the Acorn and the Santa Anita Oaks, she looks extremely live. Can't help but think she'll be overbet, though.

:9: Money'soncharlotte: Was second behind Light the City last time out; hasn't run a race that would win this in four months. Another pass.

:10: Love Came to Town: This is a promising Jersey-bred who has won three in a row. She's facing much tougher in here, however, her figures have been strong, and she proved she could route last out, when she won by nine lengths versus open company at Parx. At 15/1, she's worth a long look.

:11: High Dollar Woman: Upset the Indiana Oaks at 15/1 last out, and you'll likely get a similar price in here. She'll have to try to get an easy lead from post 11, which isn't likely. I'd be surprised.

Any other thoughts?

[Aerocraft67]

It is an intriguing race. I'll offer some complementary opinions.

:1: Fast pace could give this closer an advantage, but rail isn't the best spot. If she keeps that turf form on dirt, she's a big contender. Like her a lot underneath.

:2: Big class jump and probably too far back with too little too late to score

:3: Should be on the pace but doesn't need the lead, not confident she can withstand the heat up front, but could hold on for a piece at least, and not a bad risk at sixth ML choice

:4: Brown horse with upside, stretching out just a bit, I actually prefer the stablemate to the outside

:5: Similar proposition as other Brown entry to the inside but has won at this distance, prefer this one

:6: Pletcher horse looks really tough here, a legit favorite if not wildly overbet, which seems doubtful with the contention here. Last two were much tougher affairs, could settle back between those and previous races to score here.

:7: Last race at this distance on turf not shabby at all and OK surface switch move from Motion. Could win at a price with some upside but needs to be up on the pace, which will be tough

:8: More proven than rival to the inside with the class and figs that belong here, but does she have enough late to close the deal? Second choice on the ML dims hopes of value.

:9: Another with late pace advantage, in over her head a few times dampens form, this could be the right spot

:10: Three wins in a row but this is an ambitious step up with lots of contention for the lead

:11: Big figs in wet going, but humdrum dry performance and again with company up front

I'd look to the :6: as a legit favorite and playable near the ML price. I like the :1: and maybe :9: as companions underneath. Hard to find any real tosses, but I'm down on the :2: , :4: , :11: , and grudgingly :10:. In the second tier I like the :3: , :5: , :7: , :8: , roughly in that order; worth considering if a juicy price turns up on any of them and my other choices wind up heavily bet.

[Aerocraft67]

Win :6:
Exacta :6: / :1: :3: :5:

[Aerocraft67]

:4: Delightful Joy: She's my top pick.

Nice work!