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View Full Version : Pacific Classic, Beholder tagged favorite.


Grits
08-19-2015, 11:24 PM
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/93789/beholder-tagged-favorite-in-pacific-classic

Of certain interest to many, may be Bayern.

Baffert had previously indicated Bayern needed a competitive race following out-of-the-money runs in the Churchill Downs Stakes (gr. II) and the Metropolitan Handicap (gr. I). The San Diego may have provided that. "He struggled with the track (in the San Diego)," Baffert said. "He's got to go fast early. He's the quickest and he has to break well, but he likes a fast track and every day is different here. He's been working well and I didn't want to ship him, so we'll give him another chance."

classhandicapper
08-20-2015, 02:53 PM
IMO, the question is not whether Beholder belongs at this level. IMO she's a very high level mare and these are not the strongest colts around. So she fits with these. The question is whether she wants 10F. Earlier in her career I thought she was going to be better sprinting. I played against in the KY Oaks for that reason. I wound up underrating her ability to go that far. But 10F on dirt against boys is a very tough task. She's probably going to have to fire the best race of her life to win.

Rex Phinney
08-20-2015, 03:46 PM
IMO, the question is not whether Beholder belongs at this level. IMO she's a very high level mare and these are not the strongest colts around. So she fits with these. The question is whether she wants 10F. Earlier in her career I thought she was going to be better sprinting. I played against in the KY Oaks for that reason. I wound up underrating her ability to go that far. But 10F on dirt against boys is a very tough task. She's probably going to have to fire the best race of her life to win.

She is going to have her hands full.

The race includes a Clark winner, a Gold Cup winner, a BC Classic and Haskell winner, along with the wild card, Catch a Flight. It is a very good group of horses.

The final 1/8 in this race is going to be very important IMO. I'm not writing Bayern off just yet, I think the two races they brought him back in this year were touch spots for him, and he has always been an all of nothing type, he was embarrassed off the track in the Travers last year and came back to win at PARx and BCC.

letswastemoney
08-20-2015, 09:56 PM
I don't think these males are very good at all.

Catch a Flight received a nice setup last time and is possibly distance challenged

Bayern is likely done. Appealing Tale outdueled him.

Hard Aces received a dream setup in the Gold Cup, and inside trip.

Hoppertunity will be overbet, even if he's not one of the favorites. He is a consistent hanger that burns money.

Thankfully, we get to see something different for once. Win or lose, it will be fun to see Beholder try.

classhandicapper
08-21-2015, 11:52 AM
Hard Aces received a dream setup in the Gold Cup, and inside trip.



I haven't been the biggest Bayern fan in the world because his major victories in the Haskell and at PARX were bias aided and then he was the beneficiary of the rough start in the Classic that allowed him to get loose in a race that went 1-2-3 around the track.

All that said, he still has talent and IMO the San Diego performance was better than it looked. I thought the inside was probably not the place to be that day. I've seen no evidence in the subsequent performances of horses from that day to change my mind. So Bayern probably ran better that it looks dueling through a fast middle while racing inside.

If this was 9F, I'd probably be making him my key. But I think he's vulnerable at 10F even if he's rounding to form and shakes loose. I'm going to use him though, especially if the track is favoring speed.

ronsmac
08-21-2015, 12:40 PM
I haven't been the biggest Bayern fan in the world because his major victories in the Haskell and at PARX were bias aided and then he was the beneficiary of the rough start in the Classic that allowed him to get loose in a race that went 1-2-3 around the track.

All that said, he still has talent and IMO the San Diego performance was better than it looked. I thought the inside was probably not the place to be that day. I've seen no evidence in the subsequent performances of horses from that day to change my mind. So Bayern probably ran better that it looks dueling through a fast middle while racing inside.

If this was 9F, I'd probably be making him my key. But I think he's vulnerable at 10F even if he's rounding to form and shakes loose. I'm going to use him though, especially if the track is favoring speed.
Bayern hasn't come back well this yr obviously, but he was a beast last yr. Crushed in the woody Stephens , lots of heart while drifting in the Derby trial , destroyed fields at Monmouth and Philly bias aided or not. Then gamely held both Toast of Ny and California chrome. He had a monster year last yr.

classhandicapper
08-21-2015, 01:03 PM
Bayern hasn't come back well this yr obviously, but he was a beast last yr. Crushed in the woody Stephens , lots of heart while drifting in the Derby trial , destroyed fields at Monmouth and Philly bias aided or not. Then gamely held both Toast of Ny and California chrome. He had a monster year last yr.

I'm not sure we are too far apart. IMO he's a very talented horse whose reputation became enhanced by biases and good fortune.

That's an opinion a lot closer to yours than the one I heard yesterday from another handicapper who said "He couldn't pass a parked car". ;)

VeryOldMan
08-22-2015, 09:23 PM
Wow!

ReplayRandall
08-22-2015, 09:28 PM
What was that?......Are you kidding me?.......Speechless.

classhandicapper
08-22-2015, 09:45 PM
You can't possibly get a better trip and that wasn't the best Pacific Classic field we've seen, but that was still spectacular. :eek: That mare just keeps outrunning my expectations.

I made my biggest bet of the year in that race and left her off everything. Thank goodness Catch a Flight got the place. I just about broke even on the race despite being spectacularly wrong.

MNslappy
08-22-2015, 09:46 PM
Z_hNk8QHsJg

magwell
08-22-2015, 10:58 PM
She's a "freak of nature" that out runs her pedigree, that was simply a spectacular performance by a wonderful mare.......:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

OntheRail
08-22-2015, 10:59 PM
WOW... she passed them like they were anchored to the ground and jogged to the wire. Beauty In Motion.

Grits
08-23-2015, 12:18 AM
Knowing earlier this evening she'd won, I'd not seen her race, thanks for sharing the video. She was absolutely stunning!!! Mandella's a master.

LottaKash
08-23-2015, 01:00 AM
Knowing earlier this evening she'd won, I'd not seen her race, thanks for sharing the video. She was absolutely stunning!!! Mandella's a master.

They say that Beauty is in the Eye of the "Beholder"...and she was simply beautiful !

MNslappy
08-23-2015, 03:14 AM
@TimeformUSfigs 3 hours ago

Sometimes when horses win races like they have a lot more in the tank, they actually do have a lot more in the tank.



@TimeformUSfigs 3 hours ago

I'll post tomorrow when I process all the data, but that is going to be a BIG @TimeformUS Speed Figure Beholder ran today.

098poi
08-23-2015, 07:05 AM
Thanks for posting the video, I missed the race yesterday. Was that an optical illusion or what!! Usually you see a pass like that coming down the stretch. When horses move on the turn you see them amp up and pick off horses one by one but at 1:29 (of the video not the race) Beholder floats magically to the front like she was on an air cushion or something! Wow!

classhandicapper
08-23-2015, 01:55 PM
114 Beyer

thaskalos
08-23-2015, 02:03 PM
What was the Pharoah's Beyer in the Whitney? 109? :)

classhandicapper
08-23-2015, 02:04 PM
What was the Pharoah's Beyer in the Whitney? 109? :)

You mean Haskell?

109

Si2see
08-23-2015, 02:16 PM
Knowing earlier this evening she'd won, I'd not seen her race, thanks for sharing the video. She was absolutely stunning!!! Mandella's a master.

I couldn't agree more. I heard she won last night while sitting in traffic for hours heading back to Richmond from Laurel. I finally watched the race this morning and wow very impressive. If both AP and Beholder run well in their next start this will be the headline for breeders cup classic if they meet and that might be the first performance from a horse this year that I think might give AP a run for his money.

v j stauffer
08-24-2015, 08:19 PM
I couldn't agree more. I heard she won last night while sitting in traffic for hours heading back to Richmond from Laurel. I finally watched the race this morning and wow very impressive. If both AP and Beholder run well in their next start this will be the headline for breeders cup classic if they meet and that might be the first performance from a horse this year that I think might give AP a run for his money.

And Honor Code makes it three for the money.