Jonathon Kinchen

[Kash$]

Is a unreal tournament player..Won the Hawthorne Contest this past weekend hitting the pick 5 at Arlington.
Jonathon has had quite a run this past year hitting the pick 6 on derby day totaling winnings over $150,000 for the day.

Maybe the best tournament player on tour..may have over 5 wins this year not sure..

Great follow on twitter.

[green80]

What software does he use?

[Kash$]

What software does he use?

Not sure,huge fan of replays heard hes up at 3:00 am watching.

From what I gather he uses Formulator but also a big time timeformUS user.

[ReplayRandall]

Not sure,huge fan of replays heard hes up at 3:00 am watching.

From what I gather he uses Formulator but also a big time timeformUS user.

If you've got the time, do the work and watch replays....It IS the difference maker.

[mabred]

whats his twitter handle??

mabred

[cj]

whats his twitter handle??

mabred

@Utbighair

[Kash$]

Uses trackus,

Heard in a interview he takes certain distances,at certain tracks,and ft traveled and inputs in excel I guess this indicates to him the average..

If the average 6f race at Del mar is run at example 4,265 ft,and a certain race is less traveled then he will upgrade the race..Interesting..

[ReplayRandall]

Here is the Ticketmaker play @Utbighair used to win the Hawthorne contest:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CMnm6DPWUAASVk9.jpg

[LOSTINTHEFOG]

It must be nice to hit for 20k off a totally lucky DQ. His ticketmaker shows he didnt have the winner of the Bev D.
even if you believe it was a legit DQ (i dont), no one would argue that the winner was extremely unlucky to lose the win. and the longer price "winner" was never even close to winning the race.

i'm sure Kinchen is good, but in this case, the difference between cashing for 20k or cashing for 0, was all luck.

[ultracapper]

Not sure,huge fan of replays heard hes up at 3:00 am watching.

From what I gather he uses Formulator but also a big time timeformUS user.
I was up until 2:45 this morning. I wonder if that 15 minutes is the difference between he and I. What time does he get started?

[ReplayRandall]

It must be nice to hit for 20k off a totally lucky DQ. His ticketmaker shows he didnt have the winner of the Bev D.
even if you believe it was a legit DQ (i dont), no one would argue that the winner was extremely unlucky to lose the win. and the longer price "winner" was never even close to winning the race.

i'm sure Kinchen is good, but in this case, the difference between cashing for 20k or cashing for 0, was all luck.

True, but at least Kinchen puts himself in position, on a consistent basis, to benefit fully from the element of luck when it arises......

[mabred]

thanks cj

i couldn't find that one

mabred

[Robes]

It must be nice to hit for 20k off a totally lucky DQ. His ticketmaker shows he didnt have the winner of the Bev D.
even if you believe it was a legit DQ (i dont), no one would argue that the winner was extremely unlucky to lose the win. and the longer price "winner" was never even close to winning the race.

i'm sure Kinchen is good, but in this case, the difference between cashing for 20k or cashing for 0, was all luck.

when you spent $588 on a p5 play you don't have to be much of a handicapper at all.

[NTamm1215]

Jonathon is a very good friend of mine. He is one of the best handicappers I've ever seen. Very sharp, dedicated and most importantly, never afraid to back up his opinion at the windows.

In roughly 14 months playing tournaments, he has effectively qualified for the NHC 9 times. He's in front on the NHC Tour this year because of what he's done online (multiple outright wins in qualifiers) and the score last week at Hawthorne. He also put both of his NHC entries into the top 10 at this year's event. That doesn't happen by accident.

Someone in the thread called him lucky. Was it "lucky" that Secret Gesture was DQ'd. I guess you could categorize it as such, but luck is where preparation meets opportunity.

Lucky or well capitalized, he's really, really good.

[LOSTINTHEFOG]

Someone in the thread called him lucky. Was it "lucky" that Secret Gesture was DQ'd. I guess you could categorize it as such, but luck is where preparation meets opportunity.


no doubt he is good. i said that in my post.
but when you put $500 into a p5, use A-C's, miss a 6/1 clear winner, and still cash a 20k p5, thanks to a DQ where the 3rd place finisher (not fouled, and the longest odds of the top 3 finishers) becomes the winner, I dont know how you can call that anything but lucky.
there is nothing to be ashamed about in getting lucky, but dont tell me about preparation or ticket maker.

I've been betting horses seriously since 1999 and i'm still waiting for my big score thanks to a DQ.

[Leap]

is there a site online that shows who has won which tourneys online or live this year during the tour? thanks.

[Leap]

also what site was he betting online with? can you win the pick 6 off a bookie or does it have to be at a track? new to this online stuff just trying to figure it out. I assume all the money bet online is 100x more than what is at the track which doesn't sway the odds, right? Only the money bet at the track changes that?

[thaskalos]

no doubt he is good. i said that in my post.
but when you put $500 into a p5, use A-C's, miss a 6/1 clear winner, and still cash a 20k p5, thanks to a DQ where the 3rd place finisher (not fouled, and the longest odds of the top 3 finishers) becomes the winner, I dont know how you can call that anything but lucky.
there is nothing to be ashamed about in getting lucky, but dont tell me about preparation or ticket maker.

I've been betting horses seriously since 1999 and i'm still waiting for my big score thanks to a DQ.

You newcomers are so impatient. Wait for a few more years...it's coming. :)

[NorCalGreg]

also what site was he betting online with? can you win the pick 6 off a bookie or does it have to be at a track? new to this online stuff just trying to figure it out. I assume all the money bet online is 100x more than what is at the track which doesn't sway the odds, right? Only the money bet at the track changes that?

Leap I hope all those bets you were posting the past couple days, at least one @ $50 a pop, was all just internet fun right? It's certainly your business my friend, but just going by your questions, you are far too naive to wager any serious money. I'll go back to minding my own business now. Good luck.
-NCG

[Leap]

Leap I hope all those bets you were posting the past couple days, at least one @ $50 a pop, was all just internet fun right? It's certainly your business my friend, but just going by your questions, you are far too naive to wager any serious money. I'll go back to minding my own business now. Good luck.
-NCG

Yes all in good fun. Have been watching the races for 4 years and decided to put some money down. Most of the time just small $1-2 wagers.

[upthecreek]

thanks cj

i couldn't find that one

mabred

Just search his name, it comes up

[GatetoWire]

Jonathan may have been lucky at Arlington but you don't win that many contests and have that kind of success based on luck.
The guy is also in the top 20 right now out of 357 in the annual Huddie Saratoga contest in which you make 8 picks per weekend (Fri/Sat/Sun) at Saratoga only.

That kind of success I'm sure has some luck but a huge amount of skill.

[NTamm1215]

no doubt he is good. i said that in my post.
but when you put $500 into a p5, use A-C's, miss a 6/1 clear winner, and still cash a 20k p5, thanks to a DQ where the 3rd place finisher (not fouled, and the longest odds of the top 3 finishers) becomes the winner, I dont know how you can call that anything but lucky.
there is nothing to be ashamed about in getting lucky, but dont tell me about preparation or ticket maker.

I've been betting horses seriously since 1999 and i'm still waiting for my big score thanks to a DQ.

But his greatest accomplishment of yet may be getting someone who joined this site 5 years ago to finally post! Twice!

[Robert Fischer]

Not sure if anyone already critical or curious, will listen to me for whatever reason, but he is indeed a very good player.

[NorCalGreg]

Not sure if anyone already critical or curious, will listen to me for whatever reason, but he is indeed a very good player.

Preaching to the choir, RF. The guy is surely light years the better horseplayer than most of us ever dreamed of.
His debating skills on events current and past are probably lacking, though...so board members can still hold their heads high.

[Leap]

Where do you find out who has won which tourney this year on the circuit?

[thearmada]

Where do you find out who has won which tourney this year on the circuit?

http://www.ntra.com/NHC/files/NHC%20Tour%20Event%20Point%20Recap%20LB%20081015.p df

[thearmada]

no doubt he is good. i said that in my post.
but when you put $500 into a p5, use A-C's, miss a 6/1 clear winner, and still cash a 20k p5, thanks to a DQ where the 3rd place finisher (not fouled, and the longest odds of the top 3 finishers) becomes the winner, I dont know how you can call that anything but lucky.
there is nothing to be ashamed about in getting lucky, but dont tell me about preparation or ticket maker.

I've been betting horses seriously since 1999 and i'm still waiting for my big score thanks to a DQ.

I am also a friend of Jonathon and I can speak from experience that the bet structure from Saturday is very atypical for him.

He was playing a $588 in pick 5's to win a live money contest. I was shocked to see him use C's. He was making this bet to to get a 3000 point lead in the NHC Tour, worth $75000 when he wins. Winning the $20k from the pick 5 was the bonus here.

With the HAW tournaments, a score of 10-15x is needed in order to win the contest. He played these tickets and structured them in a way to get the ticket well above the $3000-$4500 win target. The DQ did help him on the day, but that does not take away from the other legs:

-Having the 14-1 winner and 7-1 place horse both as A's in leg 1 ($267 $2 exacta)
-Having the exacta in the St. Leger with his 2 A horses and the tri with his 1 B horse in the race ($61 $2 exacta and $81 $1 trifecta)
-The most dominating winner on the card as his only A in the Secretariat
-Having the BA exacta in the Million ($60 for $2)

He is a one of the best handicappers and best contest player I know. It is scary considering how good he has got at contest play in such a short time.

[Si2see]

Funny story I beat Kinchen on Oaks Day in a pick and pray small money tourney online. I couldn't believe I won with such a low contest total but $1250 is $1250 doesn't matter to me, just felt good beating the best contest player in the country ( I have been playing contests almost the exact amount of time he has )

The funny part of the story is I am driving to work Monday morning after having a decent derby weekend only to hear Steve Byk telling the whole country how Kinchen made 150k on derby day !!!! I would've let him have the $1250 online win in exchange for a 150k day at the races :lol:

In all seriousness he is a hell of a contest player, I feel like I can beat ANY player on ANY given day if it's my day , but I think he can beat ANY player on ANY given day on a mediocre day

Jason

[Kash$]

Just won this past weekend at Gulfstream remarkable run!!

[Si2see]

Does anybody know which races he had his major hits on Saturday ? Steve Byk was mentioning the contest this morning but I couldn't wait around for the interview

[ReplayRandall]

Does anybody know which races he had his major hits on Saturday ? Steve Byk was mentioning the contest this morning but I couldn't wait around for the interview

This is all I could find, hope it helps:

http://www.drf.com/blogs/fornatale-kinchen-rewarded-abandoning-conservative-strategy

[ebcorde]

and has money and does not care if he loses it can do very well. Does not surprise me. My son does well and he knows so very little, He's a poker player
, scoffs at the 2-1,3-1 etc. Looks at double digit horses only , has no fear. last spring he made me play a 30-1 shot. He came in 2nd , we had the tri, super, I'd would have never played him. I pointed out the things I liked about him, and my son said DO IT, DO IT! ah DAD, DO IT! and I'm telling him, "he's not going to win". Finally to shut him up I played him.
Derby day he laid out some of my picks based on the good things I liked about the Horses, and I won over $7k. You need big balls, and willing to lose money


But how does he do in a format where he can only pick 1 horse?

[Si2see]

This is all I could find, hope it helps:

http://www.drf.com/blogs/fornatale-kinchen-rewarded-abandoning-conservative-strategy

Thanks for the link. That tells most plays except for the early play, that is what I am most interested in. Other than the man being virtually unstoppable this year, I don't know much about his play ( Dirt, Turf, Maiden, 2yo, etc )

[Si2see]

and has money and does not care if he loses it can do very well. Does not surprise me. My son does well and he knows so very little, He's a poker player
, scoffs at the 2-1,3-1 etc. Looks at double digit horses only , has no fear. last spring he made me play a 30-1 shot. He came in 2nd , we had the tri, super, I'd would have never played him. I pointed out the things I liked about him, and my son said DO IT, DO IT! ah DAD, DO IT! and I'm telling him, "he's not going to win". Finally to shut him up I played him.
Derby day he laid out some of my picks based on the good things I liked about the Horses, and I won over $7k. You need big balls, and willing to lose money


But how does he do in a format where he can only pick 1 horse?


Great story. I play like this anytime I am playing ( mythical contest or real wagering )... My problem is the strike rate. I don't hit often but hit good scores when I do.

What Kinchen appears to be doing is both, capitalizing on solid favorites, and catching several longshot plays. His balance is what I am most intrigued with.

Jason

[NorCalGreg]

This is all I could find, hope it helps:

http://www.drf.com/blogs/fornatale-kinchen-rewarded-abandoning-conservative-strategy

“I tried to qualify on DRFQualify but didn’t make it,” said Kinchen, “but I still wanted to go and hang out with my racing wife, Nick Tammaro. I figured we’d play in the contest, and spend a Sunday at Frankie’s [the sports bar] watching football.”

This was from Randall's link....and before anyone get's all Butthurt about it, in post #25 I believe--I paid Mr Kinchen the highest compliment I've ever paid a regular-guy horse player. Don't know his personal life at all, but wish I had a "racing wife", who cared about football. Mine knows nor cares one wit about either.

[Valuist]

I'm listening to the DRF Podcast with Kinchen and Pete Fornatale.

Kinchen: "I'm not a germaphobe or anything, but anytime my son comes home from school, he has to first go into the shower to get rid of those germs (from school).

Maybe not a bad idea, but THAT is most definitely a germaphobe.

[Si2see]

Seeing this old thread bumped back up and reading through my own posts from almost 3 years, I figured I would share an update even though this thread was about a different ( and one of the better contest players ).

I have still being playing both through the windows, and some tournament play, but nothing as serious as I wanted to.

In 2016 I had a pretty good year topped off by 5th place finish at Sam's Town in Las Vegas. That also won me an entry to the summer classic a month later, where I was fortunate enough to make the overall lead early into day 2, but then staggered home and finished just out of the money.

In 2017 I had a very tough streak in contest play. I admittedly didn't stick to, or really have any game plan like I normally try to do. In the fall classic 2017 I finally had the famous goose egg over three days. In reality I had a rough day 1 and was chasing hopeless horses the rest of the trip, but it was still humbling. A week later I struck out in the keeneland fall challenge ( where our very own Nick Tammaro won by the way ), followed by a terrible breeders cup weekend playing from home ( may favorite weekend of the year ), it was time for a break.

I decided to only play gulfstream over the winter and very few contests or even qualifiers. I needed to get back to studying the contest game, I needed a break, and more than anything I needed to figure out these live bankroll Betting Challenges.

The main reason is I don't think I have ever played over a $100 double, $100 exacta, $20 trifecta or $10 superfecta in my life, but here these people are hitting one $400 straight trifectas, $1000 straight exactas/doubles and winning the whole tournament. I am still not convinced of two things with these tournaments.

1. I am not convinced this is even handicapping. Just my personal opinion, but I agree with a certain horse racing personality that these are exactly as the following two words describe. Betting Challenge.

2. I am not sure I have the ability to win any of these types of tournaments because it takes a lot of guts to build a bankroll then go all in towards the end or in the very last race in order to try to be the outright winner, some of these people are putting thousands and thousands in these wagers, I don't have the luxury of doing that they money is too important to me.

In mythical tournaments I can play with anyone out there when I put the prep work into it, I might not win them all, but I know on any given day I am able to beat anyone if it is my day. ( just missed the win on both of the larger derby wars games this past weekend in one of my first weeks back )

I gave the keeneland spring challenge a shot this year, and had very bad luck. I decided to play 4 larger trifecta tickets early hoping to catch one then have the chance to go all in towards the end as I did actually have good opinions. On the second wager I played, I hit the trifecta 6-1 over 8-1 over 54-1..... Unfortunately the winner was disqualified to fourth ( where I still to this day believe it should've been moved to second ) , that was just a tough blow one that is hard to get over. To add insult to injury 4 of the 5 horses I had marked to load on up at the end of the contest won.

I have a lot of work to do with these but I figured I will get to as many as I can , while not investing a ton of money to do so. I am much better in mythical w/p or w/p/s format tournaments.

The problem is, these mythical tournaments are dying off one by one, which hopefully the good ones stick around, both brick and mortar and online, but I can obviously see the race track's reasoning for switching to the betting challenges as that drastically increases handle over those days.


Jason

[classhandicapper]

1. I am not convinced this is even handicapping.


When people are playing a lot of longshots and exotics you need a sample of thousands of races to have a good idea where you actually stand relative to other people as a handicapper. Contests are some combination of luck, strategy, and handicapping in that order. You are basically hoping you have neutral luck and that strategy and handicapping give you an edge, but plenty of excellent handicappers will have negative luck and lose (or vice versa) unless they play TONS of tournaments.

[Valuist]

When people are playing a lot of longshots and large exotics you need samples of thousands of races to have a good idea where you actually stand relative to other people as a handicapper. Contests are some combination of luck, strategy, and handicapping in that order with the primary emphasis on luck.

Agreed. There's a huge degree of variance in handicapping tournaments.

[GMB@BP]

quite the spat going on between DRF (Kinchen/Fornatale) and the winners of the BCBC.

[cj]

quite the spat going on between DRF (Kinchen/Fornatale) and the winners of the BCBC.

Where do I find this? Something new of late? I listen to the podcast but haven't heard today's yet.

[GMB@BP]

Where do I find this? Something new of late? I listen to the podcast but haven't heard today's yet.

I heard the podcast after the Derby where the incident was brought up by DRF on the podcast, then I watch the video from Gabby/McFarland done by Helmers. Something about a shouting match and someone getting a drink thrown on them in Millionaires Row, or on the escalator, I guess.

(this may be old news, I just saw it today)

https://youtu.be/vLmtpuIF6J8

[Si2see]

When people are playing a lot of longshots and exotics you need a sample of thousands of races to have a good idea where you actually stand relative to other people as a handicapper. Contests are some combination of luck, strategy, and handicapping in that order. You are basically hoping you have neutral luck and that strategy and handicapping give you an edge, but plenty of excellent handicappers will have negative luck and lose (or vice versa) unless they play TONS of tournaments.


Right, and for an example of my own play, I love the Laurel Champions tournament because it is a good way to practice live bankroll , affordable play but at win place show only, so I don't feel as if anyone has that big of an advantage over me. I was fortunate enough to finish in 10th in 2016 at this tournament one of the first times I played it, I didn't really have a strategy to move to the top, just had some really good handicapping including a 34-1 winner with $20 on the nose, but I couldn't make it to the top so I started to research more. ( which is key for anyone interested in contests, research as much or more than you actually play )

Now I buy 2 entries both give $200 real money to bet with, but must bet at least $20 win, or place, or show or any combination of those but each must be $20 or higher wager.

I had it set two different ways to play each entry.

Entry 1. Play a format that I know how a former top cash player ( who's name I haven't seen in a while ) taught me the concept.

Play your races in order as they come up for the $20 win bet. If any of them hit lets say you get back $200 from hitting around a 7-1 shot then your next 2-4 wagers in order will be for from that winnings. so say 4 horses $50 win bets. Anything you hit in these "second stage" wagers move over to final bankroll.

I have been working on this off an on since 2016 and I have it in the back of my head for at least any time I can get to the laurel contest.

Entry 2. This format a friend of mine who tears up the monmouth cash games ( which I have never made it to and want to, hopefully this summer ) taught me and says it is really as simple as this

Have your best 1-5 plays of the day . Fire heavy on the first couple that run. Parlay the money and hope you can hit all of your best bets of the day. This is the format several people, including Kinchen seem to win with.

I tried this in the August 2017 contest but had a little bad luck and one mistake.

The first bet was $40 win on a longshot at gulfstream who didn't run well. The second wager was $60 to win on my second best horse of the day. Dowse's beach at woodbine at 7-2 odds. The idea was even though he was a lower price horse if he wins I roll it all on my best bet of the day at Saratoga.

Dowse's beach comes up short and runs second.

So I still have $100 for my best bet of the day, I even gave the horse to my buddy that taught me entry two format because I didn't think I could move up enough with the horse.

The mistake was I end up playing $50 w/p , because if the horse runs second at least I still have a fighting chance to go all in on one more horse. Of course the horse wins Elate in the Alabama pays $10.60 $6.00.

I got back $415 on the wager, fired off some more tickets and ended up at $500. which I believe was 20th place overall.


I believe entry 2 is the only way to win these tournaments if you have the horses, but in August I will try both styles one more time.

[GMB@BP]

Right, and for an example of my own play, I love the Laurel Champions tournament because it is a good way to practice live bankroll , affordable play but at win place show only, so I don't feel as if anyone has that big of an advantage over me. I was fortunate enough to finish in 10th in 2016 at this tournament one of the first times I played it, I didn't really have a strategy to move to the top, just had some really good handicapping including a 34-1 winner with $20 on the nose, but I couldn't make it to the top so I started to research more. ( which is key for anyone interested in contests, research as much or more than you actually play )

Now I buy 2 entries both give $200 real money to bet with, but must bet at least $20 win, or place, or show or any combination of those but each must be $20 or higher wager.

I had it set two different ways to play each entry.

Entry 1. Play a format that I know how a former top cash player ( who's name I haven't seen in a while ) taught me the concept.

Play your races in order as they come up for the $20 win bet. If any of them hit lets say you get back $200 from hitting around a 7-1 shot then your next 2-4 wagers in order will be for from that winnings. so say 4 horses $50 win bets. Anything you hit in these "second stage" wagers move over to final bankroll.

I have been working on this off an on since 2016 and I have it in the back of my head for at least any time I can get to the laurel contest.

Entry 2. This format a friend of mine who tears up the monmouth cash games ( which I have never made it to and want to, hopefully this summer ) taught me and says it is really as simple as this

Have your best 1-5 plays of the day . Fire heavy on the first couple that run. Parlay the money and hope you can hit all of your best bets of the day. This is the format several people, including Kinchen seem to win with.

I tried this in the August 2017 contest but had a little bad luck and one mistake.

The first bet was $40 win on a longshot at gulfstream who didn't run well. The second wager was $60 to win on my second best horse of the day. Dowse's beach at woodbine at 7-2 odds. The idea was even though he was a lower price horse if he wins I roll it all on my best bet of the day at Saratoga.

Dowse's beach comes up short and runs second.

So I still have $100 for my best bet of the day, I even gave the horse to my buddy that taught me entry two format because I didn't think I could move up enough with the horse.

The mistake was I end up playing $50 w/p , because if the horse runs second at least I still have a fighting chance to go all in on one more horse. Of course the horse wins Elate in the Alabama pays $10.60 $6.00.

I got back $415 on the wager, fired off some more tickets and ended up at $500. which I believe was 20th place overall.


I believe entry 2 is the only way to win these tournaments if you have the horses, but in August I will try both styles one more time.

Thanks for the write ups. I have been using the feeders to earn the cash entry, my feeling is when I do that its paper money anyways, my loss is the initial feeder cost.

I will bet it aggressive like you outlined in wager 2. My thinking is I am going into that contest thinking of a giant score rather than just some kind of income, 3-10k (entry fee) is nice since I won that but I want to make some real money.

[LemonSoupKid]

Interesting this came up, I have seen Kinchen for a couple of years on various P3 or P4 plays on "Out of the Gate," he's got that Kinchen's corner segment. He's never particularly impressed me with a meaningful win in a leg. I'm sure he's scored there, but if Divisidero won and he singled him as 3-1 fav, I don't really need a "handicapper" to tell me that --- I've won far more times and at bigger prices taking stands against those types. Most of the other scores he shot for (like Dabster on Saturday) never hit, and they are rarely any prices over 4-1. Admittedly, there isn't a super high sample here for me to judge him, and I am a multi-race/horizontal player as well (which means I "fail" a lot), but I've done much better than he has at least on big race days in Pick 4 and Pick 6.

For my money, there's no one close to Mike Beer as far as someone I truly feel gives me an insight into a potential I may be missing, or to what degree. He comes with a fairly high winning percentage (for horse racing) and when he hits, quite a few are really good prices.

That brings up the question, what's a good hit rate? I know price is everything but I feel like between Watchmaker, this guy Ellis Starr, and several others, they essentially give me throwouts when I see their picks. Not trying to be a dick either, I can't remember the last time either of those guys actually had a winner in an article I read. Hank Goldberg probably joins those ranks :rolleyes:

I must say, I do love horse racing for all of its dimensions, complaints, challenges, mushes, and interesting stories ...

[GMB@BP]

Interesting this came up, I have seen Kinchen for a couple of years on various P3 or P4 plays on "Out of the Gate," he's got that Kinchen's corner segment. He's never particularly impressed me with a meaningful win in a leg. I'm sure he's scored there, but if Divisidero won and he singled him as 3-1 fav, I don't really need a "handicapper" to tell me that --- I've won far more times and at bigger prices taking stands against those types. Most of the other scores he shot for (like Dabster on Saturday) never hit, and they are rarely any prices over 4-1. Admittedly, there isn't a super high sample here for me to judge him, and I am a multi-race/horizontal player as well (which means I "fail" a lot), but I've done much better than he has at least on big race days in Pick 4 and Pick 6.

For my money, there's no one close to Mike Beer as far as someone I truly feel gives me an insight into a potential I may be missing, or to what degree. He comes with a fairly high winning percentage (for horse racing) and when he hits, quite a few are really good prices.

That brings up the question, what's a good hit rate? I know price is everything but I feel like between Watchmaker, this guy Ellis Starr, and several others, they essentially give me throwouts when I see their picks. Not trying to be a dick either, I can't remember the last time either of those guys actually had a winner in an article I read. Hank Goldberg probably joins those ranks :rolleyes:

I must say, I do love horse racing for all of its dimensions, complaints, challenges, mushes, and interesting stories ...

I would agree, his plays dont exactly inspire much to me...

but the results can not be discounted, he has been one of the better tourney players the past few years. He won the SA contest last week.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

I think Ellis Starr is a first rate handicapper. Good guy too.

Although I don't pay attention to other handicappers (not because I don't respect them) before a race, I sure would like to know how someone like Jonathan Kinchen can look at the same Formulator and Timeform that I do and regularly finish at the top of contests.

[thaskalos]

Although I don't pay attention to other handicappers (not because I don't respect them) before a race, I sure would like to know how someone like Jonathan Kinchen can look at the same Formulator and Timeform that I do and regularly finish at the top of contests.

Luck? :)

[LemonSoupKid]

thaskalos,

What's the current hawthorne otb surcharge in IL?

If you bet simulcasts on track at hawthorne, do those disappear?

I think they are around 3-4%, no? Is Arlington/Trackside equally as bad?

[Valuist]

thaskalos,

What's the current hawthorne otb surcharge in IL?

If you bet simulcasts on track at hawthorne, do those disappear?

I think they are around 3-4%, no? Is Arlington/Trackside equally as bad?

I used to know all these answers but I do know there is no surcharge if you bet simulcasts on track, unless they've changed things in the past 3 years. It had been that way since 1995, when simulcasting started in Illinois.

[LemonSoupKid]

thanks Valuist

Makes me think I should put in my big horizontals on track, then, no? It's not as hard for me to do that, I just prefer the local or other OTBs from a convenience, size and space point of view.

[LemonSoupKid]

Also, do you guys know how rewards programs work? That is, if you use them are you tracked, or do you just get points for what you wager, regardless? I think you know what I'm asking, would there be any link to cashing a particular ticket if you made a (big) score. If not, I've been an idiot for a while, I could have been getting free plays or something, I imagine.

[Valuist]

thanks Valuist

Makes me think I should put in my big horizontals on track, then, no? It's not as hard for me to do that, I just prefer the local or other OTBs from a convenience, size and space point of view.

I suppose that depends on your handle. Do you live close to Arlington or Hawthorne?

[green80]

I think Ellis Starr is a first rate handicapper. Good guy too.

Although I don't pay attention to other handicappers (not because I don't respect them) before a race, I sure would like to know how someone like Jonathan Kinchen can look at the same Formulator and Timeform that I do and regularly finish at the top of contests.


He has an ex college roommate that works at the tote hub.

[linrom1]

It's a disgrace that DRF lets this guy pitch his plays on otherwise fine Out of the Gate program.

There was a saying that I came across about ten years ago about one particular stock market prognosticator that most dangerous people are educated and articulate morons, JK fits that to a tee.

[Striker]

thaskalos,

What's the current hawthorne otb surcharge in IL?

If you bet simulcasts on track at hawthorne, do those disappear?

I think they are around 3-4%, no? Is Arlington/Trackside equally as bad?

Don’t forget about the IRB surcharges on all winning wagers that are placed ON TRACK at Arlington. It’s supposedly a small percent but I’ve had winning wagers where a decent amount(5-10%)is missing from the payouts. Last Thursday(7/19) in Race 7 the #2 Sing One Song had a show payout of $3.80, when the ticket was cashed it was $3.60. The bet was placed at Arlington.

[thaskalos]

Don’t forget about the IRB surcharges on all winning wagers that are placed ON TRACK at Arlington. It’s supposedly a small percent but I’ve had winning wagers where a decent amount(5-10%)is missing from the payouts. Last Thursday(7/19) in Race 7 the #2 Sing One Song had a show payout of $3.80, when the ticket was cashed it was $3.60. The bet was placed at Arlington.

Outright THEFT! :ThmbDown:

[Striker]

thaskalos,

What's the current hawthorne otb surcharge in IL?

If you bet simulcasts on track at hawthorne, do those disappear?

I think they are around 3-4%, no? Is Arlington/Trackside equally as bad?

I decided to do some research on the Arlington side of things for these surcharges that most people do not know about. What I found, I truly hope HANA may take notice, if they did not know already about this. So, I glossed thru an Arlington Park program from this weekend to see if there is any mentioning of the surcharges to the racing fans. To my surprise there actually was a paragraph talking about them. It states
“Surcharge Information: Pursuant to Section 26.3 of the Horse Racing Act of 1975, the following surcharges are applicable: Between 2.7% and 3.2% surcharge on all winning wagers at off track facilities; Between 1.7% and 2.2% surcharge on all winning wagers at inter-track facilities; Between 0.2% and 0.7% surcharge on winning wagers on-track.”
I guess the biggest issue I have with this, is there isn’t a definitive percentage for each respective location. Do they just get to pick and choose what wager gets hit with say the 0.2% as opposed to the 0.7%, or are those percentages attached to specific wagers? There didn’t used to be ranges for any of these surcharges a few years ago, it was a straight number on all winnings.

[thaskalos]

Where else but in Illinois would a bettor have to pay a surcharge in order to cash a ticket on-track?

[Tom]

Un-bee-lee-vable!
The depths of greed are unlimited.

[LemonSoupKid]

It's a disgrace that DRF lets this guy pitch his plays on otherwise fine Out of the Gate program.

There was a saying that I came across about ten years ago about one particular stock market prognosticator that most dangerous people are educated and articulate morons, JK fits that to a tee.

I'm trying to figure out if you think he's just outright bad, if you think it's shady that he's a tourney player and up to no good by throwing other people off with chalk picks, or just that he's randomly allotted a segment on what you consider to be a great show. Or, all of the above?

:popcorn:

Nice reference to that amusing saying, lin

[Brass Hat]

Kinchen is an occasional guest on Pete Fornatale's handicapping show on the second floor at Saratoga on Saturdays. On the day of the Test a couple of years ago, he gave out Paolo Queen who went off at over 50-1. I listened to him, knew he was a big tournament player but not much else about him at that time, and thought this guy was reaching, didn't put two bucks on her. The rest is history.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

A few years ago I was standing at the rail in the Saratoga clubhouse. Graham Motion comes along dressed in the suit and tie. The owners of the horse he trains in the next race are sitting in front of me - they looked kind of small time but they were all dressed up too - and Motion was basically assuring them that today was the day. So what the hell. Cranking up a horse for out of town owners is pretty common, and Motion was well respected on the turf, so I made a small win bet and threw him in some trifecta's. The horse lost in a photo.

There is hardly a handicapper alive who wouldn't bet on information from an A-1 source.

[Suff]

I was up until 2:45 this morning. I wonder if that 15 minutes is the difference between he and I. What time does he get started?

:lol:

He was at Saratoga and in a live contest last week, he bombed out early.

I've heard him say a few times that he uses DRF formulator.

[cj]

:lol:

He was at Saratoga and in a live contest last week, he bombed out early.

I've heard him say a few times that he uses DRF formulator.

He's a big TimeformUS guy too.

[Suff]

He's a big TimeformUS guy too.

Of course, who isn't!


I've picked up dribs and drabs of his story. His Dad loved the track but did not speak english. Jonatha translated the DRF to his father as a kid, at the track.

Good story. Good Guy. He's easy to like, a horse players, horse player.

[linrom1]

I'm trying to figure out if you think he's just outright bad, if you think it's shady that he's a tourney player and up to no good by throwing other people off with chalk picks, or just that he's randomly allotted a segment on what you consider to be a great show. Or, all of the above?

:popcorn:

Nice reference to that amusing saying, lin

I don't want to pick on anyone, but after watching him for over a year, I think that DRFTV should bring-on another guest handicapper. Kinchen is obsoletely hopeless and extremely dangerous because he is very well spoken and articulate.

He only picks chalk and then the wrong ones every time!!

[cj]

I don't want to pick on anyone, but after watching him for over a year, I think that DRFTV should bring-on another guest handicapper. Kinchen is obsoletely hopeless and extremely dangerous because he is very well spoken and articulate.

He only picks chalk and then the wrong ones every time!!

He isn't doing well in many of these tournaments by just picking chalk. That is silly talk.

[Suff]

The little I know about him, was the side shit that I picked up while he was talking horses. When you listen to him describe the ways he digs into races, the different templates he used in Formulator, the Trainer/Jockey filters he has built into Formulator, the distance filters he uses, and how he ties it all into Timeform ratings... the man is not making it up, or hiding anything, or throwing people of his horses. He's out there....open book.

He reminds me of dan bilzerian in a way. 5 years from now, he'll be getting paid $10 grand just to show up somewhere. And probably have made a few million in crytpo's. He's a smart guy.

[linrom1]

He isn't doing well in many of these tournaments by just picking chalk. That is silly talk.



He didn't acquire his nickname as chalk-eater for nothing! But that's secondary point which is really irrelevant to my main point about his incompetency on picking plays on Out-of-the-Gate as an expert!

[the little guy]

He didn't acquire his nickname as chalk-eater for nothing! But that's secondary point which is really irrelevant to my main point about his incompetency on picking plays on Out-of-the-Gate as an expert!

Don't you ever tire from being the biggest idiot on this board?

Granted, it's an achievement, but most wouldn't wear it so proudly.

[linrom1]

Don't you ever tire from being the biggest idiot on this board?

Granted, it's an achievement, but most wouldn't wear it so proudly.

Brilliant post by self-serving jerk.

[the little guy]

Apparently not.

[Suff]

Now see he is involved in this. August 10th Drf.com

Tournament player Jonathon Kinchen and I created a new contest format, made for TV, based as much as possible on how a poker tournament works.



https://www.drf.com/news/world-horseplayers-tour-presents-unique-attraction-gamblers

He should post here, maybe good for business?. Also perhaps he can leave a couple of Kinchen specials for an old beat down horse player like me?

I want my pick 4 ticket to be, all/Kinchen/Kinchen/all

I did say some nice things about him!:lol:

[LemonSoupKid]

More recently he's been getting blown up in the first leg ... FourStarDave comes to mind ... the angst of deciding between his favorites Yoshida and Divisidero in a 6 horse field ..goes with Yoshida who finishes 5th, Divisidero gets 3rd.

Voodoo Song bitch slaps him for the snide remarks.

:p

[GMB@BP]

Something feels a bit foolish when mostly anonymous Internet message board people are ripping a very accomplished tournament player who from everything I can tell is having a very good fiscal year.

[ReplayRandall]

Something feels a bit foolish when mostly anonymous Internet message board people are ripping a very accomplished tournament player who from everything I can tell is having a very good fiscal year.


People just hate winners....Not hard to figure out.

[thaskalos]

People won't forgive you for your success.

[FakeNameChanged]

Something feels a bit foolish when mostly anonymous Internet message board people are ripping a very accomplished tournament player who from everything I can tell is having a very good fiscal year.
Understatment of the Year!

[Tom]

If you want to prove him that bad, enter a contest had bury him with your dazzling skills! :rolleyes:

[CheckMark]

More recently he's been getting blown up in the first leg ... FourStarDave comes to mind ... the angst of deciding between his favorites Yoshida and Divisidero in a 6 horse field ..goes with Yoshida who finishes 5th, Divisidero gets 3rd.

Voodoo Song bitch slaps him for the snide remarks.

:p

Yoshida wasn’t my top pick or Divisidero... it was Voodoo Song!

Was lucky that he won at a good price.

[turfnsport]

People just hate winners....Not hard to figure out.

I think some non-contest playing horseplayers do not have a lot of respect for some of these "top tournament players" because it is common knowledge some play as teams, there is collusion, they play multiple entries, etc...Can you really tell who the best contest players really are? Most of the best horseplayers/gamblers/bettors I know do not play in tournaments.

[ReplayRandall]

Most of the best horseplayers/gamblers/bettors I know do not play in tournaments.

Your statement above is incorrect.....In tourneys of all kinds, poker, video gamers, chess, sports betting(fantasy tourneys) and horse racing, some of the best players ever exploit their edge for maximum value and profitability, with lower vig/take out than if playing live.

[turfnsport]

Your statement above is incorrect.....In tourneys of all kinds, poker, video gamers, chess, sports betting(fantasy tourneys) and horse racing, some of the best players ever exploit their edge for maximum value and profitability, with lower vig/take out than if playing live.

Let me clarify....The top horseplayers/gamblers/bettors I know PERSONALLY have absolutely no interest in playing in horse racing handicapping tournaments. Collusion and vig are the top reasons why they tell me. Some are professional gamblers that do partake in poker tournaments, DFS, etc.

[ReplayRandall]

Let me clarify....The top horseplayers/gamblers/bettors I know PERSONALLY have absolutely no interest in playing in horse racing handicapping tournaments. Collusion and vig are the top reasons why they tell me. Some are professional gamblers that do partake in poker tournaments, DFS, etc.


We obviously travel in different circles, my travels are currently for 41 years of play and still going strong....

[Suff]

We'd probably never have heard of this guy if not for the contests. But thank god we have, because now we know who's been taking our money through the windows since long before we heard of him.

Go back and catch his story about Bobby's Kitten down the hill in 2016. He sounds pretty dangerous then. That was in 2016, so I know he was taking my money from at least 2012 and on... Because you don't learn that shit in 6 months.

You know who else is no joke? Maggie Wolfendale. Listen to her talk horses a few minutes. Serious game there, For Sure!

[LemonSoupKid]

Yoshida wasn’t my top pick or Divisidero... it was Voodoo Song!

Was lucky that he won at a good price.

Is this JK checking in?

:popcorn:

[cj]

Is this JK checking in?

:popcorn:

No idea why you'd draw that conclusion.

[Suff]

I think some non-contest playing horseplayers do not have a lot of respect for some of these "top tournament players" because it is common knowledge some play as teams, there is collusion, they play multiple entries, etc...Can you really tell who the best contest players really are? Most of the best horseplayers/gamblers/bettors I know do not play in tournaments.

I would agree with you that those things exist. But consider this: It has to exist. When $million$ is in play, only the most maniacal and calculating people will rise to the top.

This is a function of man-kind when the stakes are this high. Everywhere, wall street, hollywood, where the $ is.

Only the guy who owns Chick-Filet plays it straight:), everybody else uses every possible angle to get the money. In street parlance its said "the deep end of the pool always has sharks"

That's the world.

I actually disagreed with the letter Kinchen signed and sent to BC.
You got beat. Move along.

[Suff]

Is this JK checking in?

:popcorn:

Checkmark is a teenager, who is into Handicapping, lives in Canada, and has his own picks website too! He hopes to get into the business by getting a job at one of his home tracks. I think he's near woodbine. * we became bff's in the Saratoga play along thread:lol: Be nice to him please.

[thaskalos]

Let me clarify....The top horseplayers/gamblers/bettors I know PERSONALLY have absolutely no interest in playing in horse racing handicapping tournaments. Collusion and vig are the top reasons why they tell me. Some are professional gamblers that do partake in poker tournaments, DFS, etc.

I agree, the very best horseplayers don't play tournaments...and the reason isn't just because of the collusion and the vig. Today's horseracing tournaments don't resemble the way the real professional horseplayers play the game. Do you suppose that there is even a single professional horseplayer out there who exists by solely making win-bets? If the tournament directors want the very best horseplayers to turn out to those tournaments...then they should model the tournaments after the way the real professionals play the game. Give the players a minimum and a maximum wager that they need to make for each stage of the tournament...and then let the PLAYERS decide how to bet that money, and what sort of wagers to make. When you allow only win/place bets, then you alienate the exotics players...who contribute the vast majority of the money to the mutuel pools.

And, what's this bullshit about forcing the tournament players to bet on every single race of a particular track? Why not use the races of TWO tracks...and allow the players to wager on the 9 races of their choice? Do the poker tournaments force the players to bet on every single poker hand?

[turfnsport]

I would agree with you that those things exist. But consider this: It has to exist. When $million$ is in play, only the most maniacal and calculating people will rise to the top.

This is a function of man-kind when the stakes are this high. Everywhere, wall street, hollywood, where the $ is.

Only the guy who owns Chick-Filet plays it straight:), everybody else uses every possible angle to get the money. In street parlance its said "the deep end of the pool always has sharks"

That's the world.

I actually disagreed with the letter Kinchen signed and sent to BC.
You got beat. Move along.

I got chicken nuggets at Chic-Filet a couple of weeks ago. Not sure he was playing straight with me either.

[thaskalos]

Tournament player Jonathon Kinchen and I created a new contest format, made for TV, based as much as possible on how a poker tournament works.


https://www.drf.com/news/world-horseplayers-tour-presents-unique-attraction-gamblers


In this new "World Horseplayer Tour"...does the tournament play go on until one player ends up with all the money, as it happens in the poker tournaments? If not...then, why bother raising the betting units as the tournament goes along?

[Maximillion]

I agree, the very best horseplayers don't play tournaments...and the reason isn't just because of the collusion and the vig. Today's horseracing tournaments don't resemble the way the real professional horseplayers play the game. Do you suppose that there is even a single professional horseplayer out there who exists by solely making win-bets? If the tournament directors want the very best horseplayers to turn out to those tournaments...then they should model the tournaments after the way the real professionals play the game. Give the players a minimum and a maximum wager that they need to make for each stage of the tournament...and then let the PLAYERS decide how to bet that money, and what sort of wagers to make. When you allow only win/place bets, then you alienate the exotics players...who contribute the vast majority of the money to the mutuel pools.

And, what's this bullshit about forcing the tournament players to bet on every single race of a particular track? Why not use the races of TWO tracks...and allow the players to wager on the 9 races of their choice? Do the poker tournaments force the players to bet on every single poker hand?

I wouldnt have confidence against anybody for 8-9 races....even more so in races I didnt get to pick out like you said.

[turfnsport]

In this new "World Horseplayer Tour"...does the tournament play go on until one player ends up with all the money, as it happens in the poker tournaments? If not...then, why bother raising the betting units as the tournament goes along?

In the WHT pilot, which is on youtube, there was a final table of eight and they slowly got eliminated as the "blinds" went up...I was sure I was going to hate it like Horseplayers and that terrible Win, Place and Show nonsense, but it actually was pretty good. It needs some tweaks but the show has some potential.

[LemonSoupKid]

Something feels a bit foolish when mostly anonymous Internet message board people are ripping a very accomplished tournament player who from everything I can tell is having a very good fiscal year.

To be clear on my statements, I know nothing about JK's tourney play, nor do I care to unless I step into the tournament realm. Clearly, as has been demonstrated here, it's a different skill than "normal" horse playing. Being that I handicap NFL and have for years, I have confidence that my savvy in comparing tournaments (for example, the "SuperContest") and tourney players is accurate, but I don't even need to go there. Is Fezzik a good tourney player/did he win the supercontest early and garner a rep? Yes. Did he win twice? Yep. But in a vacuum that doesn't mean what one might think it means. I presume it may be the same with JK. Do both of those guys know their respective sports well though? Of course they do.

I'm just talking about the times I've seen him on Out of the Gate. I'm not ripping anyone, I'm stating verifiable facts at hand.

Let's put it this way: If he's such a great 'capper, why do I generally fade him but follow Beer? I don't have a horse in the race either way ... haha, actually, of course I do. But it's got nothing personal to do with either. Just what garners wins at the track or OTB. That's it.

[AltonKelsey]

Not a big fan of Kinchen, no reason to be imo.


The Brooklyn Cowboy much more creative and does his thing out in the open , telling you why and how he makes his calls.


He that that $98 winner on top the other day. NYRA showed him running down the stairs at the spa , the camera guys must have been tipped off.

[RunForTheRoses]

I agree, the very best horseplayers don't play tournaments...and the reason isn't just because of the collusion and the vig. Today's horseracing tournaments don't resemble the way the real professional horseplayers play the game. Do you suppose that there is even a single professional horseplayer out there who exists by solely making win-bets? If the tournament directors want the very best horseplayers to turn out to those tournaments...then they should model the tournaments after the way the real professionals play the game. Give the players a minimum and a maximum wager that they need to make for each stage of the tournament...and then let the PLAYERS decide how to bet that money, and what sort of wagers to make. When you allow only win/place bets, then you alienate the exotics players...who contribute the vast majority of the money to the mutuel pools.

And, what's this bullshit about forcing the tournament players to bet on every single race of a particular track? Why not use the races of TWO tracks...and allow the players to wager on the 9 races of their choice? Do the poker tournaments force the players to bet on every single poker hand?

There are tourneys like that, Monmouth has one this weekend. see today's HT blog post too (not saying the best players would play these either, best players are getting rebates and are probably busy making the best of that).

https://blog.horsetourneys.com/2018/08/22/the-horse-player-world-series-back-at-horsetourneys-this-weekend-andjust-maybemore-popular-than-ever/#more-4217

[thaskalos]

Not a big fan of Kinchen, no reason to be imo.


The Brooklyn Cowboy much more creative and does his thing out in the open , telling you why and how he makes his calls.


He that that $98 winner on top the other day. NYRA showed him running down the stairs at the spa , the camera guys must have been tipped off.

Could it be that he had to run to the bathroom?

[RunForTheRoses]

I agree, the very best horseplayers don't play tournaments...and the reason isn't just because of the collusion and the vig. Today's horseracing tournaments don't resemble the way the real professional horseplayers play the game. Do you suppose that there is even a single professional horseplayer out there who exists by solely making win-bets? If the tournament directors want the very best horseplayers to turn out to those tournaments...then they should model the tournaments after the way the real professionals play the game. Give the players a minimum and a maximum wager that they need to make for each stage of the tournament...and then let the PLAYERS decide how to bet that money, and what sort of wagers to make. When you allow only win/place bets, then you alienate the exotics players...who contribute the vast majority of the money to the mutuel pools.

And, what's this bullshit about forcing the tournament players to bet on every single race of a particular track? Why not use the races of TWO tracks...and allow the players to wager on the 9 races of their choice? Do the poker tournaments force the players to bet on every single poker hand?

Read your post again and yes your right in that the majority of tourneys don't have exotics, Mth is only WPS. But some like BCBC and Belmont and SoCal do allow *some*exotics. I've seen DDs but never P3 4 5s in tourneys, maybe somewhere.

[RunForTheRoses]

In the WHT pilot, which is on youtube, there was a final table of eight and they slowly got eliminated as the "blinds" went up...I was sure I was going to hate it like Horseplayers and that terrible Win, Place and Show nonsense, but it actually was pretty good. It needs some tweaks but the show has some potential.

I posted that here to crickets, thought it was interesting, oh well:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=146641

[Suff]

I posted that here to crickets, thought it was interesting, oh well:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=146641


Thanks. May I pontificate?. Those are tables are no good. Who plays horses on tables like that? I get lap dances sitting at chairs and tables like that.

It all sounds to canned.

I find that more often in west coast players.
The Del-mar handicapper John Lie sounds like he's handicapping under oath. I only talk like that when there's a Judge in the room.

Also, WPT has hotties floating around. Get some eye-candy.

Listening to that for 10 minutes, I just deducted 2 points from Kinchen. :)

[CheckMark]

Is this JK checking in?

:popcorn:

No it’s a 16 year old handicapper your talking to.

[CheckMark]

Checkmark is a teenager, who is into Handicapping, lives in Canada, and has his own picks website too! He hopes to get into the business by getting a job at one of his home tracks. I think he's near woodbine. * we became bff's in the Saratoga play along thread:lol: Be nice to him please.

And that ladies and gents is pure friendship! :headbanger:

[LemonSoupKid]

JK's Travers pick 4:

R8: :2:,:5:,:7:

R9: :8:

R10: :6:,:7:,:10:

R11: :3:,:7:,:8:,:9:,:11:

:popcorn:

[GMB@BP]

JK's Travers pick 4:

R8: :2:,:5:,:7:

R9: :8:

R10: :6:,:7:,:10:

R11: :3:,:7:,:8:,:9:,:11:

:popcorn:

Hmm, thought he was a ticketmaker guy using ABCx methods.

[Suff]

Not a big fan of Kinchen, no reason to be imo.


The Brooklyn Cowboy much more creative and does his thing out in the open , telling you why and how he makes his calls.


He that that $98 winner on top the other day. NYRA showed him running down the stairs at the spa , the camera guys must have been tipped off.

I ran into your guy today.