View Full Version : Some Picks with Speed, Driver and Post Bias factors
Ray2000
08-18-2015, 12:19 PM
Small test run, using the ranks in 3 factors, Speed, Driver and Post Bias (giving Speed double weight).
If you're following along with the spreadsheet "SulkyPicker.xls", there may be some differences
as I've updated post and driver data on my sheet. The old sheet was using values from 2007. :rolleyes:
Expect high strike rate? but low ROI.
Tracks will vary, Win/Place wagering only.
Track Race Pick Horse ML
MOH 1 1 P L Icabod 9/2
MOH 2 5 Trumpets 6/1
MOH 3 6 Topcornerterror 3/1
MOH 4 1 Intrigued Intended 10/1
MOH 5 5 Mass Rail 7/2
MOH 6 3 Val America 7/1
MOH 7 1 Renegade Magic 5/2
MOH 8 1 Mystery Bet 7/2
MOH 9 6 Sutton Seelster 10/1
MOH 10 5 Pick Six 10/1
YR 1 1 Grand Galop Semalu 7/2
YR 2 3 Amalfi Coast 8/5
YR 3 1 Limitless 2/1
YR 4 4 Ransom Demand 8/5
YR 5 1 Bad Cantab 7/1
YR 6 1 She Glides 7/2
YR 7 1 On The Big Swing 6/1
YR 8 1 Wishing You Well 5/2
YR 9 3 Battle Mage 3/1
YR 10 1 Carnegie 12/1
YR 11 1 Explosiveday 2/1
YR 12 1 Southwind Masimo 5/2
Unicorn
08-18-2015, 01:25 PM
Some of your picks are not even in the scheduled races you posted.
Ray2000
08-18-2015, 02:03 PM
Some of your picks are not even in the scheduled races you posted.
I rechecked, seem OK, for Tuesday 8/18 :confused:
Ray2000
08-19-2015, 05:39 AM
Yesterday only 2 hits, Yonkers R7 $6.60 and Mohawk R3 $22.40 (not bad for a 3/1 ML :eek: )
I noticed a trap I fell into, that is... if looking at only 2 or 3 factors and 1 of the factors never changes, then it will almost always be dominant.
Post bias at Yonkers is picking the rail horse almost all of the time. Unlike the driver mix or the speed performance, Post rankings are always the same.
So I'll drop post position and use trainer ranks and start over.
Wednesday, 8/19
Track Race Pick Horse ML
PCD 1 7 Dd'S Hitman 5/2
PCD 2 1 Beach Granny 5/2
PCD 3 5 Rose Run Roxann 12/1
PCD 4 3 Western Jewel 7/2
PCD 5 7 Gweneeee J 4/1
PCD 6 1 Internal Check 4/1
PCD 7 5 Cantuhearmeknockn 4/1
PCD 8 7 Hoorayforvacation 8/1
PCD 9 4 Purple N Gold 7/2
PCD 10 7 The Summer Wind 12/1
PCD 11 6 Goddess'S Rosa 7/2
PCD 12 5 Love Live Laugh 9/2
PCD 13 7 She Wore Red 3/1
PCD 14 5 Top Brand 4/1
MEA 1 1 Heels On The Beach 7/2
MEA 2 7 Edinburgh 3/1
MEA 3 6 Pure Country 2/1
MEA 4 5 Lyons River Pride 5/1
MEA 5 9 R Marie Hanover 3/1
MEA 6 8 Guantanamo Bay 2/1
MEA 7 5 Sanctity Hanover 4/1
MEA 8 3 Ivy League 4/1
MEA 9 8 Sand Tilly Lace 6/1
MEA 10 8 Explosive Ripple 5/2
MEA 11 4 Odin Blue Chip 15/1
MEA 12 6 Fawn De J 5/1
MEA 13 6 Wiggle It Hanover 3/1
MEA 14 7 Up Front Murray 6/1
MEA 15 5 Recharge 3/1
mrroyboy
08-19-2015, 01:37 PM
I agree Ray. Post position bias at Yonkers is so strong it can't be used as a handicapping factor. Sounds weird but true.
Ray2000
08-20-2015, 06:42 AM
Yes Mrroy, High Stike on rail 20.3% but almost always overbet.
Yesterday, it was a chalkathon, Place betting almost broke even.
Races 29
Scratch 1
Win Place
2$ bets $56.00 $56.00
Hits 8 16
Return $29.60 $54.90
ROI 0.53 0.98
Strike 29% 57%
Thursday
SCD 1 4 Lady Julie 6/1
SCD 2 1 Can'Tcutthatchip 3/1
SCD 3 4 Can'T Best My Art 5/1
SCD 4 3 So Long My Love 5/1
SCD 5 1 Buckeye Thea 10/1
SCD 6 3 Sam Swifty 4/1
SCD 7 6 American Girl 5/1
SCD 8 9 Rompaway Galaxy 3/1
SCD 9 3 Martz Time 4/1
SCD 10 10 Woman Of Terror 3/1
SCD 11 7 Townlinedaliscard 5/1
SCD 12 1 My Hare Lady 3/1
MOH 1 4 Chapel Hall 5/1
MOH 2 1 Arsenic 5/2
MOH 3 7 Deep Impact 2/1
MOH 4 1 Ok Hallelujah 8/1
MOH 5 2 Warrawee Roo 12/1
MOH 6 10 Black Widow Baby 9/2
MOH 7 6 Show Biz Hall 5/1
MOH 8 3 A Marcou Story 3/1
MOH 9 1 Yawkey Way 8/1
MOH 10 1 Soaking Up The Sun 4/1
Ray2000
08-20-2015, 09:07 PM
mrroyboy
I checked to see how bad post 1 is at Yonkers on roi using TrackMaster numbers from 8/21 programs (in red).
It's bad alright but the surprise is Post #4. :faint: Single factor positive roi over 2500 races...
Mohawk Post #6 still rules.
Post post1 post2 post3 post4 post5 post6 post7 post8 post9 post10
Yonkers
Starts Fast track 2508 2508 2508 2508 2504 2478 2376 1818 99 96
WIN% INDEX 57 23 5 34 8 -35 -48 -67 -29 -27
ROI% INDEX 4 6 5 23 5 -20 -4 -30 10 -4
Expect wins 314 314 314 314 313 310 297 227 12 12
Actual wins 492 386 329 420 338 201 154 75 9 9
Strike 20% 15% 13% 17% 14% 8% 7% 4% 9% 9%
Expect roi 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82
Actual roi 0.85 0.87 0.86 1.01 0.86 0.66 0.79 0.57 0.90 0.79
Mohawk
Starts Fast track 1303 1303 1303 1303 1301 1300 1263 1177 990 620
WIN% INDEX 2 8 -14 -3 35 43 -12 -20 -33 -40
ROI% INDEX 5 1 -20 -5 11 14 -11 14 -6 -12
Expect wins 163 163 163 163 163 163 158 147 124 78
Actual wins 166 176 140 158 220 232 139 118 83 47
Strike 13% 14% 11% 12% 17% 18% 11% 10% 8% 8%
Expect roi 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83
Actual roi 0.87 0.84 0.66 0.79 0.92 0.95 0.74 0.95 0.78 0.73
Ray2000
08-21-2015, 06:14 AM
Yesterday was a terrible on wins, ok on place bets
Races 22
Win Place
Hits 6 11
ROI 0.62 1.01
Strike 27% 50%
2 day totals
Races 51
Scratches 1
Win Place
2$ bets $100.00 $100.00
Hits 14 27
Return $57.00 $99.30
ROI 0.57 0.99
Strike 28% 54%
Picks for Friday, 8/21
PCD 1 8 Gj Photo Victory 5/2
PCD 2 8 Mr Rightnow 6/1
PCD 3 2 Youth 5/2
PCD 4 6 Columbia Lion 3/1
PCD 5 8 Badstormanyport 3/1
PCD 6 9 Four Starz Credit 5/1
PCD 7 3 Dabunka 3/1
PCD 8 4 Touch The Rock 5/2
PCD 9 2 Gliding Boy 8/1
PCD 10 2 R Gauwitz Hanover 5/2
PCD 11 8 Upfront Lorne 8/1
PCD 12 6 Ras Shakinthtbacon 7/2
PCD 13 5 Fresh Dream 8/1
PCD 14 4 Photo King 3/1
PHL 1 5 Grace N Charlie 5/1
PHL 2 3 Real Drama 8/5
PHL 3 2 Whichwayrightrleft 5/1
PHL 4 6 Crocadile Canyon 7/2
PHL 5 3 Marathon Day 8/5
PHL 6 6 Ellie'S Best Dream 5/2
PHL 7 1 Northern Grace 5/2
PHL 8 8 Mcever 8/5
PHL 9 5 Fly'N With Royalty 2/1
PHL 10 2 Empress Deo 6/1
PHL 11 8 Delightful Plan 8/1
PHL 12 7 Wonder Buns 2/1
PHL 13 7 Sapient Hanover 2/1
PHL 14 4 Force Flex 2/1
Ray2000
08-22-2015, 09:04 AM
Horrible Friday for chalk, Monkey beats me...
ROI Win bets 0.48 Place Bets 0.66
To date
Races 79
Scratches 1
Win Place
2$ bets $156.00 $156.00
Hits 21 40
Return $84.00 $136.10
ROI 0.54 0.87
Strike 27% 51%
Saturday
Track Race Pick Horse ML
PCD 1 7 Yagonnakissmeornot 4/1
PCD 2 3 Luck Be A Lindy 4/1
PCD 3 7 Donatomite 4/1
PCD 4 8 Trading Up 9/2
PCD 5 4 Resolve 3/1
PCD 6 5 Serious Filly 6/1
PCD 7 1 Honor And Serve 6/1
PCD 8 8 Mcardles Lightning 10/1
PCD 9 6 Great Vintage 3/1
PCD 10 6 Moonlit Dance 3/1
PCD 11 2 Pinkman 5/2
PCD 12 7 Wakizashi Hanover 6/1
PCD 13 7 Dreams Beachboy 3/1
PCD 14 1 Shakai Hanover 5/2
MOH 1 5 Aventure 5/1
MOH 2 2 Voracity 5/2
MOH 3 3 Thatsoveryverynice 2/1
MOH 4 6 Cruise Patrol 10/1
MOH 5 2 Carracci Hanover 4/1
MOH 6 3 Burning Shore 8/1
MOH 7 2 Ultimate Beachboy 4/1
MOH 8 2 Mileys Big World 2/1
MOH 9 1 Darlinonthebeach 7/2
MOH 10 7 American Passport 9/2
MOH 11 8 Piston Broke 3/1
MOH 12 2 Camaes Fellow 2/1
Ray2000
08-23-2015, 05:05 AM
Saturday one nice Win at Mohawk Burning Shore $30.90
and a good Place price at Pokie Serious Filly $24.80, but 0 fer 13 (1scr) on Win bets. :confused:
Win Place
ROI 0.85 1.08
Races to date 105
Scratches 2
Win Place
2$ bets $206.00 $206.00
Hits 25 48
Return $126.40 $189.90
ROI 0.61 0.92
Strike 24% 47%
Sunday
Track Race Pick Horse ML
TGDN 1 6 Literate Hanover 15/1
TGDN 2 3 Hollywood Hill 8/5
TGDN 3 1 Metatron 3/1
TGDN 4 7 Gifted Lady 2/1
TGDN 5 2 Burkentine Hanover 5/2
TGDN 6 9 Devil Child 15/1
TGDN 7 1 In The Arsenal 8/5
TGDN 8 3 Southwind Frank 1/1
TGDN 9 1 Clear Vision 7/2
TGDN 10 6 All The Time 8/5
TGDN 11 3 Pair Of Deuces 10/1
TGDN 12 4 Fools Gold 6/1
TGDN 13 3 Big Bambu 5/2
VD 1 2 Cadillac Jake 5/2
VD 2 6 Fair Voltage 3/1
VD 3 4 Princess Elsa 8/1
VD 4 5 Tarport Andy 10/1
VD 5 8 Buckeye Baddler 7/2
VD 6 2 Speaking Out 9/2
VD 7 4 Damon Blue Chip 5/2
VD 8 4 My Fella 7/2
VD 9 7 Terror High 5/1
VD 10 2 Choke Hold 9/2
VD 11 5 Sri Panka 9/2
VD 12 5 Cherokee Ranger 8/1
VD 13 3 Sky Keeper 8/1
Ray2000
08-24-2015, 05:55 AM
This is going nowhere fast...Speed/Dr/Tr
Yesterday Win ROI 0.78 Place ROI 0.90
Races to date 131
Scratches 2
Win Place
2$ bets $258.00 $258.00
Hits 35 62
Return $166.80 $236.50
ROI 0.65 0.92
Strike 27% 48%
Monday mostly ML Faves
NFLD 1 8 Crank It Up 3/1
NFLD 2 3 Louie The Fourth 1/1
NFLD 3 8 Golden Slipper 20/1 ????
NFLD 4 9 Credit Report 2/1
NFLD 5 5 Keystone Rideau 9/2
NFLD 6 1 Heres Ethel 2/1
NFLD 7 6 Quik Groom 4/1
NFLD 8 8 Man He Can Skoot 2/1
NFLD 9 7 Thisoneandonemore 5/2
NFLD 10 6 Victory Is Coming 3/1
NFLD 11 4 Nassau County 2/1
NFLD 12 7 Sombrero Hall 9/1
NFLD 13 5 On The Green 6/1
NFLD 14 1 Beans And Weenies 9/5
NFLD 15 2 Majo Christmasgift 2/1
YR 1 1 In A Craze 5/2
YR 2 1 Lts Sandie 5/2
YR 3 7 Jetty 9/2
YR 4 4 Goosebump Hanover 1/1
YR 5 5 Dazzling Dollars 4/1
YR 6 8 A Stitch In Time 9/2
YR 7 4 Pampered Winner 7/2
YR 8 2 Caviart Christa 8/5
YR 9 2 Franniegetyourgun 7/1
YR 10 1 Ari Allstar 6/1
YR 11 1 Bullseye 6/1
YR 12 8 Heavenly Bride 6/5
Ray2000
08-25-2015, 05:33 AM
Finally yesterday was a good day for Win bets
Yonkers R9 & 10 Franniegetyourgun & Ari Allstar $15.60 & 28.40
Monday ROI Win 1.42 Place 0.94
Yonkers has 5, 1-¼ mile races today so skip it, go with Northfield
Races to date 158
Scratches 2
Win Place
2$ bets $312.00 $312.00
Hits 46 76
Return $243.30 $287.00
ROI 0.78 0.92
Strike 29% 49%
Tuesday
MOH 1 1 Asterix 9/1
MOH 2 8 Mass Rail 3/1
MOH 3 3 Roses In The Rain 10/1
MOH 4 2 American Curves 10/1
MOH 5 7 Coloratura 7/2
MOH 6 3 Sabine Pass 3/1
MOH 7 2 Hope Rises 8/1
MOH 8 1 Daddy Warbucks 3/1
MOH 9 1 Val America 7/2
MOH 10 8 Hape 5/2
MOH 11 6 Galagher Seelster 9/2
NFLD 1 4 Glittering Muscles 2/1
NFLD 2 4 Welcome Wagon 6/5
NFLD 3 2 Jesse'S Messenger 2/1
NFLD 4 8 All Pro Hall 15/1
NFLD 5 1 Northern Cone 3/2
NFLD 6 9 Rompaway Elvis 6/1
NFLD 7 3 Makin Green Lavec 15/1
NFLD 8 2 Q Zilla 3/1
NFLD 9 7 Great American 9/5
NFLD 10 8 Hop Zip 4/1
NFLD 11 4 Jw Racer 6/5
NFLD 12 5 Let Loose Hanover 4/1
NFLD 13 1 Panfermin Festival 3/1
NFLD 14 4 Custers Last Stand 4/1
NFLD 15 8 Muncie 2/1
Ray2000
08-26-2015, 09:02 AM
Nothing, yesterday
Races to date 184
Scratches 2
Win Place
2$ bets $364.00 $364.00
Hits 53 88
Return $268.80 $327.70
ROI 0.74 0.90
Strike 29% 48%
Wednesday
PHL 1 8 Miss Dollar Mam 8/5
PHL 2 5 Marion Monaco 8/5
PHL 3 2 Victoriousbroadway 5/1
PHL 4 8 Colby Jate 4/1
PHL 5 3 Gordys Filly Yenta 2/1
PHL 6 8 Serious Savannah 9/2
PHL 7 3 Boots Place 3/1
PHL 8 8 Hickory Icon 9/2
PHL 9 2 Stirling Bullet 5/2
PHL 10 2 White Sportscoat 6/1
PHL 11 1 Musical Rhythm 7/2
PHL 12 4 Brushstrokes 9/5
PHL 13 8 Onhishonor Hanover 8/1
PHL 14 2 King Royalty 9/5
MEA 1 8 Spiritina 3/1
MEA 2 5 Nokdownnigetupagan 7/2
MEA 3 1 Shadows Dream 8/5
MEA 4 7 Rt Hotanddangerous 8/1
MEA 5 2 Sand Tilly Lace 4/1
MEA 6 6 Ravenclaw 15/1
MEA 7 3 Lady Ashlyn 12/1
MEA 8 3 Al-Mar Sneaky Pete 4/1
MEA 9 3 Swan Von Braun 5/1
MEA 10 4 Wiggle It Hanover 7/2
MEA 11 4 Jolting Kate 3/1
MEA 12 9 See The Wind 2/1
MEA 13 8 Phone Terror 5/1
MEA 14 2 Classical Annie 5/2
pandy
08-26-2015, 09:19 AM
Ray, have you have tested something like, 3rd ranked speed, instead of top ranked? ROI should be higher. Or, top ranked speed is bet at 5-2 or higher odds otherwise 2nd or 3rd ranked speed is bet based on which one has the higher odds. No posts 7 or 8 on half mile tracks.
Ray2000
08-26-2015, 10:28 AM
pandy
Right now I'm gathering the tote board odds on these picks to check out the best (if any) range for these picks.
I'm using top ranked speed, driver standings and trainer WPS record last 30 starts.
I'm using that old spreadsheet I posted in a previous thread and it can't do more a one card at a time, so if this preliminary test shows any promise, I'll automate the program and run a whole year's worth of races.
You suggestion of excluding posts 7 & 8 on the half-milers is a good one.
I recently did a sampling of races in 2015 on post ROIs to see if there were any surprises, so I'll post those numbers here.
Mohawk post 8 is strange this year.
EdZone
08-26-2015, 11:26 AM
Nothing, yesterday
I follow Mohawk so I know the following 2 horse Win.
R10 Hape #8 Win Paid $5.30 $3.90 $2.70
R11 Galagher Seelster #6 Win Paid $6.50 $2.80 $2.40
Maybe you mean nothing big?
Ray2000
08-26-2015, 11:33 AM
Yes, sorry, I didn't mean nothing at all, just nothing to mention.
pandy
08-26-2015, 10:48 PM
pandy
Right now I'm gathering the tote board odds on these picks to check out the best (if any) range for these picks.
I'm using top ranked speed, driver standings and trainer WPS record last 30 starts.
I'm using that old spreadsheet I posted in a previous thread and it can't do more a one card at a time, so if this preliminary test shows any promise, I'll automate the program and run a whole year's worth of races.
You suggestion of excluding posts 7 & 8 on the half-milers is a good one.
I recently did a sampling of races in 2015 on post ROIs to see if there were any surprises, so I'll post those numbers here.
Mohawk post 8 is strange this year.
Just this week alone, after two nights of racing at Yonkers, seven horses from post 7 went off at odds of 11-1 or less, and 6 horses from post 8 went off at 10-1 or less. Out of those 13 horses, one horse won from post 8 and paid $3.80. The losers included two 3-1 shots, a 3-5 shot, a 1-2 shot, a 5-2 shot, two 5-1 shots and a 6-1.
Last year I wrote in my column that you should never bet a horse from post 7 or 8 at Yonkers unless the horse is at least 20-1 odds, and that holds true for most half mile tracks. I don't know who makes these ridiculous bets but they do not understand harness racing. This isn't 1975.
Ray2000
08-27-2015, 05:22 AM
.... I don't know who makes these ridiculous bets ....
Whoever they are we need more of them. :D
Yesterday, was not good on Win bets, Place betting returns $53.10 on $54.00 bet
Racesto date 212
Scratches 3
Win Place
2$ bets $418.00 $418.00
Hits 62 102
Return $307.60 $380.80
ROI 0.74 0.91
Strike 30% 49%
Baby night at Mohawk, so I'll use Rideau-Carleton 5/8 instead
RIDC 1 3 Northern Prince 2/1
RIDC 2 4 Kates Star 2/1
RIDC 3 2 Miss Bro 3/1
RIDC 4 4 Officially Rusty 2/1
RIDC 5 2 Windsong Lisa 4/1
RIDC 6 2 Shark Drummond 4/1
RIDC 7 1 Noble High Shadow 4/1
RIDC 8 8 Stonebridge Mighty 8/1
RIDC 9 3 Canalony 2/1
RIDC 10 9 Our Star 8/1
STGA 1 3 Legion Of Doom 9/2
STGA 2 6 American Legend 5/2
STGA 3 5 Big Left Turn 3/1
STGA 4 5 Nitro Glistening 5/1
STGA 5 8 Long Story Short 6/1
STGA 6 8 So Chill 6/1
STGA 7 5 Round About 5/1
STGA 8 7 Tough Love 5/2
STGA 9 6 Diamond Tough 8/1
STGA 10 7 Js Trotting Bob 10/1
Ray2000
08-28-2015, 05:20 AM
Selections are mostly chalk and we know where that leads. :)
Races to date 232
Scratches 3
Win Place
2$ bets $458.00 $458.00
Hits 66 111
Return $320.50 $411.50
ROI 0.70 0.90
Strike 29% 48%
Breakdown by odds range: (no 2yo or Maiden races)
Odds range Win roi Place roi # of Picks
<1 0.98 1.06 48
1 - 5/2 0.88 0.78 63
5/2 - 6 0.10 0.86 44
>6 0.56 0.88 53
Friday
MOH 1 2 Show Biz Hall 7/2
MOH 2 6 Ninette B 3/2
MOH 3 7 Smokinmombo 8/5
MOH 4 9 Machnbyrd Princess 9/2
MOH 5 2 Kamikaze Lindy 7/2
MOH 6 6 Dapple Apple 10/1
MOH 7 2 Girl Drama 7/2
MOH 8 3 Lock Down Lindy 5/2
MOH 9 7 Precocious Beauty 9/2
MOH 10 4 Lindys Old Lady 3/1
MOH 11 10 Lady Spartacus 8/1
NFLD 1 3 Hagitha 5/1
NFLD 2 6 Absolutely Certain 9/5
NFLD 3 6 So Long My Love 3/2
NFLD 4 8 Tsm Soul Sister 20/1
NFLD 5 6 Emerald Valentine 20/1
NFLD 6 3 Flight Seelster 1/1
NFLD 7 7 Second Chance 3/1
NFLD 8 4 Schmatie 7/2
NFLD 9 5 Medoland Sapphire 3/1
NFLD 10 2 A Dandy Bryer 9/1
NFLD 11 8 Edita Hanover 12/1
NFLD 12 5 Apach Of Luck 4/5
NFLD 13 6 Senorita Bella 15/1
NFLD 14 6 Cosmetician 5/2
NFLD 15 6 Clear Character 9/2
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